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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Giants Sign Shun Yamaguchi

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8:13PM: The Giants officially announced Yamaguchi’s signing.

10:44AM: The Giants and right-hander Shun Yamaguchi are in agreement on a contract, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The deal is likely to be a split Major League/minor league contract, notes Slusser.

Yamaguchi figures to come with minimal financial risk for the Giants, as the Blue Jays are on the hook to pay him $3.175MM for the 2021 season. The Blue Jays recently released the Japanese right-hander to clear room on their 40-man roster for waiver pickup Joel Payamps.

The 33-year-old pitched for 14 seasons in Japan where he owns a 3.35 ERA over 427 games, which included 50 starts and 191 games finished. He signed a two-year, $6.35MM deal to join Toronto ahead of the 2020 season. The transition did not go as planned, however, as Yamaguchi pitched to a 8.06 ERA/6.43 FIP over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with substandard strikeout (21.7 percent) and walk rates (14.2 percent).

NL Central Notes: Rodriguez, Carpenter, Farmer

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There is plenty of opportunity for hurlers to win jobs on the rebuilding Pirates’ pitching staff, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) breaks down the full list of arms in Pittsburgh’s Spring Training camp.  This isn’t to say that the Bucs are entirely done making moves, however, as Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”

Since signing with Pittsburgh prior to the 2018 season, Rodriguez has posted very strong numbers — a 3.02 ERA, and an above-average 28.16K% and 7.15BB% over 158 relief innings.  Home runs have been an issue (1.3 HR/9) and Rodriguez’s hard-contact numbers were among the worst in baseball last season, though he also has some elite (96th percentile) fastball spin.  Rodriguez turns 31 in March, but he is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, and is set to earn a modest $1.7MM this season.  There hasn’t been any public trade speculation about Rodriguez during the offseason to date, yet considering how the Pirates are open to discussing virtually player in the organization, it seems likely some teams have already been in touch about Rodriguez.  More talks could develop as Spring Training continues and clubs get a clearer sense of their bullpen needs.

Some more items from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter will not be spending time in the outfield this season, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News (Twitter link) and other reports. Now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are entrenched at Carpenter’s usual corner infield positions, there has been some speculation that the Cardinals could look for other ways to get his bat in the lineup. Since the outfield is a non-starter for Carpenter and NL teams won’t have a designated hitter spot, this leaves either a second base platoon with Tommy Edman or bench duty for the 35-year-old Carpenter.  The three-time All-Star has seen a steep decline at the plate over the past two seasons, and 2021 looms as Carpenter’s final year in St. Louis — the Cardinals have an $18.5MM club option for 2022 that seems almost sure to be bought out unless Carpenter has a major rebound.
  • Kyle Farmer was keeping one eye on baseball Twitter this offseason to see if the Reds would sign a shortstop, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, since Farmer was preparing to take a shot at the position himself.  After playing just one game at shortstop over his first three seasons, Farmer made 15 appearances as a shortstop in 2020, and still remains in the mix for at least semi-regular work among a group that also includes Kyle Holder, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Max Schrock.  (Jose Garcia is one of the few pure shortstops on the roster, though he is set to begin the season in the minors.)  Farmer lost 10 pounds and overhauled his swing this offseason in his bid to prove himself worthy of regular playing time, though his multi-position versatility already makes him a strong candidate for a roster spot.

Cubs Designate Phillip Ervin

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The Cubs have designated outfielder Phillip Ervin for assignment.  The move opens up a roster spot for Jake Marisnick, whose signing is now official.

This is the third DFA in less than six months for Ervin, who was first designated by the Reds at the end of August and then claimed by the Mariners.  The Cubs then claimed Ervin off Seattle’s waiver wire in December.  Since Ervin is out of minor league options, it’s possible he could be a frequent visitor to DFA limbo over the course of the 2021 season.

Selected 27th overall in the 2013 draft, Ervin didn’t blossom into an everyday regular in Cincinnati but he did contribute a solid .262/.326/.438 slash line over 571 plate appearances from 2017-19.  He badly struggled last season, however, hitting just .149/.292/.189 over 89 PA with the Reds and Mariners.  This included a brutal coda to Ervin’s tenure in Cincinnati, as he collected only three hits in his last 42 PA in a Reds uniform.

Ervin has hit well against left-handed pitching in his career and he can play all three outfield positions, though the Cubs seem to have tabbed Marisnick (who signed a Major League contract) as their top choice for the fourth outfielder role.  With Cameron Maybin also back on a minor league deal, Ervin looks like the odd man out of the right-handed hitting outfielder mix.

Cubs Sign Jake Marisnick

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TODAY: Marisnick’s deal has been officially announced.

FEB. 11, 9:12am: Marisnick and the Cubs have agreed to a one-year Major League deal with a mutual option for the 2022 season, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The contract guarantees Marisnick $1.5MM. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the guarantee will be paid out in the form of a $1MM salary in 2021 and a $500K buyout on a $4MM mutual option. He can earn another $500K in 2021 via incentives, Heyman adds.

8:15am: The Cubs and free-agent outfielder Jake Marisnick are in agreement on a contract, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Marisnick is represented by Reynolds Sports Management.

Jake Marisnick | Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Marisnick, 30 in March, has spent the bulk of his career with the Astros but was with the Mets in 2020. A pair of hamstring injuries limited the fleet-footed outfielder to just 16 games, although Marisnick was quite productive in his tiny sample of 34 plate appearances, hitting .333/.353/.604 with a pair of homers and three doubles.

That level of production, of course, shouldn’t be expected moving forward. Marisnick has been a below-average hitter for most of his time in the Majors, though he’s offset that sub-par bat with well above-average speed and excellent glovework. Over the past four years he’s a .234/.297/.441 hitter overall, though he’s fared better when facing left-handed pitching (.247/.313/.443).

Marisnick’s speed was down a bit in 2020, though the pair of hamstring strains surely contributed to that fact. Statcast measured his sprint speed at 29.2 feet per second from 2016-19 but had him down to 28.2 last year. That still ranked in the 84th percentile of MLB players, however, and Marisnick typically sits in the 94th percentile or better with those wheels. He also ranked among the 20 best outfielders in the game in Statcast’s Outs Above Average each year from 2016-19, and he’s been viewed as a similarly elite defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Cubs already had a right-handed-hitting option to platoon with fellow newcomer Joc Pederson and right fielder Jason Heyward in the form of Phil Ervin, so it’s possible Marisnick will bump him out of the plans. Ervin is a much better hitter against lefties than Marisnick but doesn’t stack up as well defensively. Chicago could certainly carry both players on the roster and more aggressively utilize a platoon setup in the outfield. At the time of the Pederson signing, it was reported that he’d be given near-everyday at-bats, although playing him against lefties would mitigate much of his value.

However it shakes out, the Cubs are a much better defensive team now with Marisnick on board. Somewhat amusingly, they’ve also now in effect swapped fourth outfielders with the Mets. Albert Almora Jr., non-tendered by the Cubs earlier in the winter, signed with New York this past week.

Mets Sign Taijuan Walker

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TODAY: The Mets have officially announced Walker’s deal.  Noah Syndergaard has been placed on the 60-day injured list to open up a roster space for Walker.

FEB. 19, 8:14am: It’s a two-year, $20MM deal with a player option for a third season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). The deal, which is still pending a physical, will pay Walker $10MM in 2021 and $7MM in 2022. The player option is at a base of $6MM and can rise to $8.5MM via escalator clauses based on Walker’s performance. There’s a $3MM buyout on the option, should Walker decline, making for a total of $20MM in guarantees.

7:04am: The Mets and free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker have agreed to terms on a contract, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. The Excel Sports client will step into the rotation alongside Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson.

Taijuan Walker | Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into his age-28 season, Walker was the youngest established starter available in free agency. The former top prospect made his big league debut with the Mariners just two weeks after his 20th birthday back in 2013 and solidified his place in the Seattle rotation in 2015 at 22 years of age. The M’s traded Walker to the D-backs in a high-profile 2016 deal also including Ketel Marte, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger, and he went on to have his best season in 2017: 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball.

Walker went down with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in 2018, however, and the resulting Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly his entire season. He was on the comeback trail in 2019, but those efforts were derailed by a strained shoulder capsule that limited him to one inning. After pitching a combined 14 innings in 2018-19, Walker was non-tendered by the D-backs and returned to the Mariners on a low-cost, one-year deal in free agency.

The signing worked out well for the Mariners, who parlayed five solid starts from Walker into a deadline trade with the Blue Jays that netted outfield prospect Alberto Rodriguez (currently Seattle’s No. 24 prospect at Baseball America). Walker made six starts with the Blue Jays and pitched to a pristine 1.37 ERA with a 25-to-11 K/BB ratio over the life of 26 1/3 innings.

Overall, Walker’s 2.70 earned run average in 53 1/3 innings last year looked quite sound. However, despite that impressive mark, his age and his former top prospect pedigree, Walker appears to have had a difficult time finding a club willing to meet his asking price this winter. There’s likely some good reason for that, as once looking past the ERA, the numbers aren’t nearly as appealing.

On his way to that 2.70 ERA, Walker benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and a slightly elevated 78.5 percent strand rate. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate was below the league average, as was his 39.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty’s 93.5 mph average heater was down from its 95.1 mph peak, and his swinging-strike rate was among the lowest in the league (13th percentile, per Statcast). Fielding-independent marks like SIERA (4.60) and Statcast’s xERA (4.87) aren’t as bullish on Walker, who averaged just 4 2/3 innings per start in 2020.

Add in the elbow and shoulder injuries in 2018-19, and some trepidation from interested teams is understandable — but only to an extent. We’ve seen the free-agent market regularly pay upwards of $10-12MM per year on mutli-year deals to fourth starter types, and Walker ought to be at least that moving forward. His prospect pedigree, youth, velocity and raw stuff give him the upside to become quite a bit more than that as well.

With the Mets, Walker needn’t perform like anything more than a fourth starter, thanks to the talent they already have atop their starting staff. Of course, if he does take a step forward and pitch closer to last year’s ERA marks, an already impressive rotation will only look all the more formidable. With the newest agreement in place, the Mets have an enviable quintet of deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Walker and Peterson. Beyond that looms the return of Noah Syndergaard, who’ll ideally be ready for a summer return following his own Tommy John surgery last May.

Unlike in 2020, that group is backed up by considerable depth. Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto, Sean Reid-Foley and Sam McWilliams were added to the 40-man roster via trade and free agency this winter, and prospects Franklyn Kilome and Thomas Szapucki will be able to work toward minor league readiness in a game setting. The Mets also added lefty Mike Montgomery and righty Jerad Eickhoff on minor league deals, and it’s conceivable that they could yet bring in some additional non-roster depth in Spring Training.

While it may not be quite the offseason Mets fans envisioned, it’s hard to look at the current roster and consider the offseason anything other than a substantial step in the right direction. New York’s marquee acquisition of Francisco Lindor and Carrasco will go down as its largest strike of the offseason, with free-agent acquisitions of Walker, James McCann, Trevor May, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Loup and Albert Almora have deepened the roster.

The Mets didn’t shatter the luxury tax threshold as many expected when Steve Cohen purchased the team — they’d have done so had their near-deal with Trevor Bauer been completed — but Walker’s deal pushes their baseline payroll and their luxury-tax ledger both just shy of $200MM. It’s a franchise record for Opening Day payroll by a magnitude of roughly $40MM, setting the tone for future offseasons under Cohen’s ownership.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/20/21

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Let’s round up some minor moves from around the game…

Latest Transactions

  • The Cubs have outrighted infielder Sergio Alcantara to Triple-A, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports (Twitter link).  Alcantara was designated for assignment earlier this week, and has been invited to the Cubs’ Major League spring camp.  Alcantara only joined the Cubs earlier this month via a waiver claim from the Tigers, as the 24-year-old looks to compete for a roster spot after making his big league debut (10 games, 23 plate appearances) in 2020.  Over 2611 career minor league PA, Alcantara has hit .256/.340/.318.
  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Jimmy Herget has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, though Herget will still be invited to the big league Spring Training camp.  Herget was designated for assignment earlier this week.  Selected off waivers from the Reds last winter, Herget posted a 3.20 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings for Texas last season, but control was a major issue, as he also walked 14 batters.

Earlier Today

  • The Indians announced the signing of Ryan Lavarnway to a minor league deal. The 33-year-old catcher has received an invite to spring training. The former Red Sox farmhand appeared in five games with the Marlins in 2020, collecting four singles in 11 plate appearances. He has generally served as catching depth with occasional stints at the big league level, though he hasn’t seen more than a few games worth of action since 2015. Since debuting with Boston in 2011, Lavarnway has gone on to log Major League playing time with the Orioles, Braves, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Marlins. For his career, he owns a triple slash line of .215/.272/.344 in 456 plate appearances over nine seasons, with a 6.8 percent walk rate and 24.1 percent strikeout rate.

Orioles Notes: Sánchez, Jones, Zimmermann, Valdez

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The Orioles will have a pair of fresh faces up the middle this season with free agent additions Freddy Galvis and Yolmer Sánchez. Sánchez is a Gold Glove winner at second, but he’ll be pushed for playing time by the newly-acquired Jahmai Jones. Jones will work out in the outfield as well, but the Orioles view him as a second baseman, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. It was a bit surprising to see the Orioles net the former second round pick in exchange for Alex Cobb, as the former Angels farmhand was the top prospect in LA’s system as recently as 2017, per Baseball America. He was the 89th ranked prospect in all of baseball before the 2018 season.

On the pitching side, Baltimore made positive strides in 2020, finishing in the upper half of the league by fWAR and around the middle of the pack by measure of ERA (16th) and xFIP (18th). The struggle to allot rotation minutes remains a focal point, however. Bruce Zimmermann, for instance, hopes to make the rotation after seven debut innings in 2020. If Zimmerman doesn’t make the rotation, he could wind up in the pen as a bulk innings relievers, tweets Kubatko.

The same goes for César Valdez, notes Kukatko. Manager Brandon Hyde suggested that Valdez would be used in a number of different roles, but they will work to stretch him out in the spring in preparation for multi-inning stints and potentially turns in the rotation. The 35-year-old Valdez made nine appearances for the O’s in 2020 with a 1.26 ERA/2.14 FIP across 14 1/3 innings. It was Valdez’s first appearance in the bigs since 2017 and only his third stint since initially debuting with the Diamondbacks in 2010.

Diamondbacks To Sign Ben Heller To Minors Deal

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Former Yankee Ben Heller has reached an agreement to join the Arizona Diamondbacks, pending a physical, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). It’s a minor league deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). He has one option year remaining.

It didn’t take long for Heller to find a new home. He was released by the Yankees just over a week ago. Heller missed all of the 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned, but only for a six-game sample in each of 2019 and 2020. Still, there was a good deal of interest in Heller, including from the Red Sox, notes Cotillo (via Twitter).

Heller joined the Yankees along with Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield as part of the Andrew Miller trade at the 2016 trade deadline. He was a 22nd round draft pick by the Indians in 2013.

Projections from ZiPS and ATC paint Heller as capable of an ERA in the 4.00-to-4.50 range next season. Because of the injury, Heller’s big-league track record is somewhat incomplete. Over 31 appearances that span four seasons and five years, Heller has a 2.59 ERA, but 5.57 FIP with a 40.9 percent fly ball rate, less-than-daunting 21.7 percent strikeout rate, and 10.9 percent walk rate.

Shane Bieber Tests Positive For COVID-19

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FEB 20: Bieber has returned to camp as of this morning, reports a number of outlets including the Athletic’s Zack Meisel and Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Bieber is working out with the team.

FEB 18: Indians ace Shane Bieber recently tested positive for COVID-19, president of baseall operations Chris Antonetti told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters Thursday. Bieber had “very, very mild symptoms,” according to Antonetti, and the Indians are hopeful that the right-hander will join them in camp in the next few days.

There is, of course, no more valuable member of the Indians’ staff than Bieber, who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 and was likely the premier pitcher in the sport. The 25-year-old turned in an astounding 1.63 ERA/2.52 SIERA with a 41.1 percent strikeout rate, a 7.1 percent walk rate, and a 48.4 percent groundball mark over 77 1/3 innings.

Assuming he does return to health sometime soon, Bieber should take the ball for Cleveland on Opening Day. The club’s rotation has undergone changes this offseason with the trade of Carlos Carrasco to the Mets, but it still looks like a talented group with Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac and Triston McKenzie among those continuing to complement Bieber.

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