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Mike Soroka

MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

Quick Hits: Verlander, Seager, Soroka

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Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome that ace Justin Verlander is “not progressing as quickly as he’d like” in his recovery from a forearm strain. Of course, Verlander holds himself to extremely lofty standards, so that could mean any number of things. Verlander went to the injured list on July 27th after just one six-inning start. The Astros are as eager as Verlander to have their ace return – they’re in the middle of the pack, record-wise, and awaiting the return of a number of key players, including Yordan Alvarez and Jose Urquidy. In the meantime, they recently shuffled their rotation in the hopes of providing a spark from a new line of starters.

  • Corey Seager had a back scan last night, but the results showed nothing to be concerned about, per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. The discomfort Seager has been feeling is not related to the back injury that he suffered during the 2017 playoffs, adds J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. That’s very encouraging news for the Dodgers. Seager has started hot this season (.340/.389/.600) after a so-so season in 2019 dimmed his star (to some) just a bit. He’s day-to-day for now, with Chris Taylor captaining the infield in his stead.
  • Mike Soroka’s surgery to repair his right Achilles tendon yesterday was successful, the team announced. The first step in a long recovery process is now in the books for the Braves’ ace. There’s no sugarcoating the severity of Soroka’s injury, though a number of people have made a point to say that Soroka has the temperament and work ethic to weather this storm and return to acedom. With a bevy of young pitching candidates in a much-hyped system, Soroka has stood out among the field, quickly becoming the ace of this Braves contender. In 29 starts last year, he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP, finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting and 6th for Cy Young.

 

Braves Outright Chris Rusin

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Aug. 6: The Braves announced that Rusin has been assigned outright to their alternate training site after clearing waivers. He’ll remain in the team’s 60-player pool but is no longer on the 40-man roster. Because he’s still in the player pool, he’s eligible to rejoin the club later this season.

Aug. 4: The Braves have designated lefty Chris Rusin for assignment, per a club announcement. Additionally, the team placed righty Mike Soroka on the 45-day injured list. Those moves created a pair of active roster spots to enable the promotion of two pitchers. Righties Chad Sobotka and Huascar Ynoa will each join the MLB team.

Rusin, 33, earned a job out of Summer Camp but only got one appearance before he was set free. He allowed three earned runs in a 3 1/3-inning outing last night after Soroka departed with what turned out to be a season-ending injury. The former Cubs and Rockies southpaw was quite effective in Colorado from 2016-17, pitching to a 3.19 ERA in 169 1/3 frames, but success has been hard to come by outside of that two-year stretch. In 468 2/3 innings across part of nine MLB seasons (2020 included), Rusin has a 4.65 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Braves’ Anthopoulos On Possibility Of Pitching Trade

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Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is still picking up the pieces after a stunning series of early-season pitching woes culminated in last night’s loss of Mike Soroka. Today, he discussed the possibility of swinging a trade with reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links).

The Atlanta organization is now going without four of the five anticipated members of the starting staff that Anthopoulos constructed last winter. Soroka follows Cole Hamels in suffering an injury, though it’s still possible the veteran Hamels will return later in the year. Mike Foltynewicz was outrighted after showing much-reduced stuff, while Felix Hernandez opted out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns.

That volume of significant losses obviously puts the Braves in position to pursue new arms, and Anthopoulos acknowledged that he’s been exploring the marketplace since Summer Camp reopened. However, getting a deal done under the present circumstances represents a major challenge. “It’s very hard to say” whether the team can get something done, says the veteran executive.

“Today, the likelihood is we’ll stay internal,” Anthopoulos explained, “but we’ll continue to inquire and see if we can line up on a deal.”

Despite the unusual nature of the season, and despite these heavy pitching losses, Anthopoulos says the Atlanta organization is willing and ready to value a shot at winning a title this year. It seems the club will be heavily involved in whatever trade talks can be had, though it’s hardly clear how much appetite the team has for taking on additional salary.

As for Soroka, there’s still no timetable, but he’ll obviously miss the remainder of the current season. The lack of specificity is certainly understandable, due both to the serious nature of the injury and the many potential nuances in his recovery. Anthopoulos did say that he’ll undergo surgery this week.

Mike Soroka Suffers Season-Ending Achilles Tear

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Braves ace Mike Soroka suffered a torn right Achilles on Monday and will miss the rest of the season, Jeff Schultz of The Athletic was among those to report. The injury forced the right-handed Soroka out of his start early in a loss to the division-rival Mets.

Not only is this development horrible news for Soroka and the Braves, but it’s a blow to baseball fans who have been treated to his outstanding performance since he debuted in 2018. Still just 22 years old when he took the mound tonight — his birthday is tomorrow — Soroka was an All-Star last season who has registered a 2.72 ERA/3.34 FIP with 7.27 K/9, 2.17 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate in 211 2/3 innings in the majors. Monday was just his third start of the current season, and considering the severity and timing of it, it seems fair to wonder whether Soroka will miss a chunk of time in 2021 as he works his way back.

Soroka’s year-ending injury continues a run of terrible luck in Atlanta’s rotation, which dealt with multiple problems before losing him. Righty Felix Hernandez opted out of the season over coronavirus concerns, and then big-money offseason pickup Cole Hamels went on the 45-day IL because of a triceps injury. After that, the Braves booted one-time All-Star Mike Foltynewicz from their roster in the wake of an alarming drop in velocity. Foltynewicz is still part of the organization, though, and may stand a greater chance of getting back to the majors this year in light of Soroka’s injury.

If Folty isn’t an option, the Braves could still look within, seek a trade or scour a rather uninspiring free-agent market to complement Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright in their rotation. One thing’s for sure: Even though Atlanta’s 7-4 and atop the NL East, this season has not gone according to plan for its group of starters.

Mike Soroka Helped Off Field With Lower-Leg Injury

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Braves starter Mike Soroka had to be helped off of the field after suffering an evident injury. He was attempting to cover first base when he came up limping and ultimately could not bear weight on his right leg.

While it’s obviously far too soon to know what kind of prognosis Soroka will face, replays suggest he may well have suffered damage to his Achilles tendon. That could be a potentially devastating injury to the hurler, who turns 23 tomorrow.

Soroka was excellent last year, his first full campaign in the majors, as he earned an All-Star nod and came in second in the A.L. Rookie of the Year voting. He finished the season with 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching.

It had been more of the same early in 2020, as he carried a 1.59 ERA through his first two outings. While Soroka is anything but overpowering, he has succeeded to this point in his young career by keeping batters off balance and limiting the long ball.

Soroka is on track for likely arbitration qualification as a Super Two player after the 2020 season. His earning power would be reduced greatly if he’s unable to participate fully in the truncated season.

Any significant absence would obviously also pose a major problem for the Braves. They’re already missing Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez from the anticipated rotation mix.

A One-Year Deal That Could Pay Off For A Decade

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It’s been more than six years since the Braves inked righty Ervin Santana to a one-year, $14.1MM deal after Spring Training was already underway. Santana, then 31, was a free agent for the first time and entered the market as one of the more appealing starters available to teams in need of a rotation upgrade. He’d just wrapped up a strong season with the Royals that saw him rack up 211 frames with a 3.24 ERA and a 3.16 K/BB ratio.

But Santana hit the market aiming quite high, reportedly seeking a contract worth more than $100MM. A big payday wasn’t exactly far-fetched — we predicted a five-year deal at a more reasonable $75MM term that winter — but teams clearly balked at a nine-figure guarantee for a pitcher who struggled with year-to-year consistency. Kansas City, after all, had only acquired Santana in a salary dump from the Angels after the righty posted an ERA north of 5.00 in a sub-replacement-level 2013 effort.

By the time Santana’s asking price dropped into the four-year, $50-60MM range as Spring Training approached, it was too late. He reportedly received three-year offers from the Twins (who’d sign him a year later) and Orioles that spring but preferred a one-year deal to reenter free agency next winter. The Braves obliged, signing Santana at the exact $14.1MM value of the qualifying offer he’d rejected four months prior.

Ervin Santana, 2014 | Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The signing worked out swimmingly for Atlanta. Santana made 31 starts, totaled 196 innings and logged a 3.95 ERA (3.39 FIP) with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9 and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate. The Braves finished second in the NL East that year, but their playoff miss couldn’t be pinned on Santana, who largely held up his end of the bargain. At season’s end, Santana entered the open market a second time.

Unlike the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, the previous arrangement allowed players to receive multiple qualifying offers in their career. As such, the Braves issued a second qualifying offer, which Santana again rejected. This time around, his expectations were set a bit lower, and by the end of the Winter Meetings he’d landed a four-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him $55MM. The Twins lost their second-round pick to sign Santana. The Braves received a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.

As readers have likely gleaned by now, that’s where the Atlanta organization struck gold. The Braves’ organic pick that year, No. 14 overall, saw them select lefty Kolby Allard, whom they traded to Texas last July to rent reliever Chris Martin. The compensatory pick they landed in exchange for Santana turned into Mike Soroka.

Mike Soroka

At the time of the selection, Soroka was an aggressive selection. Pre-draft rankings from MLB.com, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN all had Soroka ranked in the 60 to 90 range among draft prospects. He was one of the youngest players in the draft and generally pegged as more of a second- or third-round pick. In their scouting report heading into the draft, Baseball America wrote: “There hasn’t been a player out of Alberta selected in the top 100 picks since the Red Sox picked Chris Reitsma 34th overall in 1996, and while Soroka probably won’t go that high, he should end up off the board in the first few rounds in June.”

Just 17 when he was selected, Soroka nonetheless rose quickly through the Braves’ system and steadily improved his prospect stock along the way. Soroka was at least three years younger than the average age of his competition at every minor league level he competed, and before he’d reached his 21st birthday he was suiting up for the Braves at SunTrust (now Truist) Park. Shoulder troubles in that debut campaign in 2018 limited Soroka to just 25 2/3 innings in the Majors another 30 2/3 frames in the minors.

This past season, of course, unfolded quite differently. Were it not for the outrageous power display put on by division rival Pete Alonso, Soroka might well have locked up Rookie of the Year honors. The 2019 NL runner-up pitched to a pristine 2.68 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 51.2 percent grounder rate. Soroka was worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.6 bWAR, and he ranked well above average in terms of Statcast metrics such as opponents’ barrel rate, average exit velocity, expected ERA and expected wOBA. Considering he was 21 for most of the 2019 season, optimism regarding Soroka abounds.

With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies already locked up long term, Soroka stands out as an obvious candidate for a long-term deal of his own. At the very least, the Braves can enjoy Soroka for four full years beyond whatever semblance of a 2020 season we get, all the way through the 2024 season. So long as Soroka’s shoulder holds up, it seems the Atlanta organization will still be reaping the benefits of that Santana signing more than a decade after the ink on his contract dried.

Injury Notes: Soroka, Manaea, Gennett, Wood

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Braves right-hander Mike Soroka was removed from today’s game after being hit by a pitch by Austin Voth.  Soroka was struck in his right forearm, and while he took his base and finished the inning, he didn’t return to the mound in the bottom half of the frame.  The team announced that Soroka was removed “as a precaution,” and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that x-rays on Soroka’s forearm were negative.  It doesn’t appear as if the injury is too serious, which is undoubtedly a big relief for both the Braves and the rookie sensation.  While advanced metrics indicate that Soroka’s grounder-heavy (57% ground ball rate) arsenal is due for some regression, his 2.07 ERA over 78 1/3 innings has been a huge boost to an inconsistent Atlanta rotation.

Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game…

  • After throwing 60 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, Sean Manaea’s rehab has been halted after the southpaw reported soreness in his right side, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media.  “He’s got a little bit of a side soreness, so we’re shutting him down for a little bit. I don’t know if it’s an oblique or if he’s just feeling it a little bit in his side,” Melvin said. “We’re cutting back on him for a little bit here to get healthy. It’s not the arm, which is good.”  There isn’t any known timetable for when Manaea could begin throwing again, though Melvin didn’t seem to consider the issue to be major.  The A’s were projecting a possible return for Manaea after the All-Star break, as the left-hander was slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment following his last simulated outing.  Manaea hasn’t pitched since August 24, 2018 after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • Scooter Gennett’s rehab assignment shifts from high-A ball to Triple-A this week, and Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “there’s a chance” Gennett could be activated off the injured list on Friday, when the Reds begin a series against the Cubs.  The club will be as careful as possible with Gennett’s recovery process, of course, as the second baseman has yet to play this season due to a severe groin strain.  Gennett’s minor league rehab stint can last up to 20 days in length, and he only just got back on the field earlier this week.
  • Alex Wood, another Reds player who has yet to see action this season, is scheduled for his first rehab start on Thursday, Bell said.  Back problems have kept Wood out of action since late February, and he isn’t expected to be a candidate to join Cincinnati’s roster until after the All-Star break.  “We can’t rush it and he hasn’t had a Spring Training. We have to build him up,” Bell said.

Braves Rumors: Duvall, Outfield, Pitching Staff

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It seems the Braves may be looking at alternatives in the outfield, with David O’Brien of The Athletic tweeting that Adam Duvall’s hold on a roster spot is “tenuous at best.” The Braves acquired Duvall from the Reds in a minor trade last July, and while they didn’t give up much in the way of long-term value, the trade simply hasn’t paid dividends. Duvall was slumping at the time of the acquisition and cratered further with a disastrous .132/.193/.151 through 57 trips to the plate with the Atlanta organization. Despite struggling through the worst season of his career in 2018, Duvall was surprisingly tendered a contract by the Braves, who avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $2.875MM salary. If the Braves cut ties with Duvall, they’d only be responsible for about $696K of that non-guaranteed sum. O’Brien notes that if another fourth-outfield type becomes available in the next few days, it wouldn’t be surprising if Atlanta moves on from Duvall, who is 5-for-37 with seven walks and six strikeouts so far in camp.

More out of Atlanta…

  • On the pitching side, O’Brien took a look yesterday (subscription link) at a roster that’s loaded with possibilities but also a number of health questions. The Atlanta organization will be piecing things together at the back of the bullpen while A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day work back to full health. Both will open the season on the injured list. Some young starters could be tasked with relief duties to open the year, though the rotation is also missing its top piece in Mike Foltynewicz.
  • Not only is Foltynewicz headed for the injured list to start the season, Kevin Gausman’s status for the early portion of the season is seemingly up in the air, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Gausman did throw 58 pitches in an intrasquad game yesterday, but the organization would like him to be built up to 90 pitches before joining the big league rotation. Thankfully for Braves fans, it doesn’t seem as though there’s much long-term concern following Gausman’s early camp shoulder issues. If he’s not ready to go for the opening week, then it’s possible that each of Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Max Fried could make the roster.
  • Meanwhile, the Braves announced today that Mike Soroka has been optioned to Triple-A, where he’ll get at least a few outings under his belt before he’s reconsidered for the MLB staff. That’s actually positive news, it seems, since it indicates that Soroka is healthy enough that he did not require a trip to the injured list to open the season. Soroka was limited in camp with problems in his throwing shoulder, though if he can put that issue behind him he should quickly emerge as a candidate to rejoin the Atlanta rotation.

NL East Injury Notes: Hunter, Glover, Soroka, Victor Victor

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The Mets have had a few notable health issues arise early in camp, with Todd Frazier (link) and Jed Lowrie (link) each coming down with maladies. But they aren’t alone in that regard. Here are injury notes from the remaining four teams in the National League East:

  • Phillies setup man Tommy Hunter has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain in his right forearm and won’t throw for two weeks, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen). Hunter, 32, missed the first month of the 2018 season due to a hamstring strain and now looks to be in some degree of jeopardy as pertains to Opening Day 2019, though if he’s cleared to resume activities in two weeks’ time, he could potentially be built back up in time for the regular season. Hunter, owed $9MM in the second season of a two-year contract, pitched to a 3.80 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 64 frames of relief when healthy last season.
  • Similarly, the Nationals got more bad news on right-hander Koda Glover, who is being shut down for the time being due to a forearm strain in his right arm, as Mack Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. The Nats, by all accounts, love Glover’s potential but have been unable to keep him on the field over the past two seasons, as he’s been shelved by back, hip and shoulder injuries. Once looked at as a potential closer of the future in D.C., Glover has managed just 35 2/3 innings at the MLB level across the past two seasons. Despite only having pitched a total of 55 1/3 innings in the Majors, Glover already has more than two full seasons of MLB service time given his lengthy DL stays. On the plus side, the 25-year-old’s MRI revealed no damage to his elbow ligament. Glover expressed confidence that the issue will ultimately prove minor, though only time will tell whether that will ultimately be the case.
  • Braves righty Mike Soroka will pick up the ball again on Thursday, skipper Brian Snitker told reporters including David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The hope surely is that a week or so of rest will allow his shoulder discomfort to subside. If not, it stands to reason that the Atlanta organization’s medical staff will order up an even lengthier timeout and further medical examination. Soroka is hoping for a healthy 2019 after his promising debut campaign was cut short by shoulder troubles.
  • An MRI revealed that Marlins prospect Victor Victor Mesa suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain when beating out a possible double-play grounder in Sunday’s Grapefruit League contest, per a team announcement. While that’s the lowest grade of strain, Mesa will be sidelined for a bit and has been reassigned to minor league camp as a result. Manager Don Mattingly called the injury disappointing (link via MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro), given that the Miami organization had hoped to get Mesa as many at-bats as possible in big league camp as it gets a first extended look at his skill set. Mesa will likely head to Class-A Advanced or Double-A for his first taste of professional ball in the States, Mattingly added.
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