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Archives for December 2021

Jose Marmolejos Signs With Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2021 at 7:45am CDT

The Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles have announced the signing of outfielder/first baseman Jose Marmolejos.  According to Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto (Twitter link), “multiple Japanese teams” were scouting Marmolejos last season.

Marmolejos turns 29 in January, and is coming off a season that saw him win MVP honors in Triple-A West.  Over 83 games and 353 plate appearances with the Mariners’ affiliate in Tacoma, Marmolejos hit .338/.439/.672 with 26 home runs.  Between this performance and some other big numbers with the Nationals’ Triple-A club in 2019, it seems as though Marmolejos doesn’t have much left to prove at the top minor league level, though he has yet to translate that production to the majors.

Appearing in 76 games with the Mariners in 2020-21, Marmolejos has hit only .183/.262/.362 with 10 homers in 237 PA against big league pitching.  Seattle designated him for assignment and outrighted him off its 40-man roster twice last season, which allowed Marmolejos to opt for free agency after the season, and he exercised that right back in October.

It’s easy to see why NPB teams would have interest in Marmolejos’ services, and with the Eagles specifically, he could slide right into the role occupied by former big leaguer Brandon Dixon in 2021.  (As per reporter Jim Allen, Dixon won’t be back with the Tohuku club next year after struggling last season.)  Marmolejos could be in line for regular work as a corner outfielder, and could also see time as a first baseman depending on how the Eagles align their roster.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions Jose Marmolejos

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Collective Bargaining Issues: Expanded Playoffs

By Anthony Franco | December 6, 2021 at 11:50pm CDT

Last week, we covered what figures to be one of the top priorities for the MLB Players Association during collective bargaining discussions — alterations to the service time structure. Today, we’ll look at what should be one of the most important issues for Major League Baseball: potential postseason expansion.

An expanded playoff has looked to be a key issue for the league for quite some time, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes discussed in January with labor advisor Eugene Freedman. More playoff teams simply means more games for MLB to offer television partners — deals which have proven extremely profitable for the league in recent years. Under past collective bargaining agreements, playoff TV revenue has gone exclusively to the league. The creation of additional rounds to sell to FOX, Turner or any other broadcast partner would figure to provide the league and its owners another windfall.

The league and Players Association already agreed to one playoff expansion, bumping to 16 teams during the 2020 truncated season. That was a one-off agreement, but commissioner Rob Manfred publicly voiced support for a permanent playoff expansion last year. Manfred has previously floated 14 teams as the league’s ideal number, and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported last week that MLB has had a 14-team playoff format on the table during its early collective bargaining proposals.

According to Rogers, MLB’s proposal would contain seven postseason teams from each of the American and National Leagues. In addition to the three division winners, each league would feature four Wild Card clubs. The team with the best record in each league would receive a first-round bye, while the remaining six teams in each league would participate in a three-game Wild Card series.

Under MLB’s vision, the two division winners in each league that don’t receive the bye would choose their Wild Card series opponents. The division winner with the second-best record would choose its opponent from the bottom three Wild Card clubs; the remaining division winner would have its pick of the bottom two Wild Card teams still available; the remaining Wild Card winners would face one another. The higher-seeded team in each league would host all three games of the opening series.

While potential postseason expansion looks to be an obvious positive for MLB, its effects on the players could be more mixed. The introduction of a playoff round would have a direct financial benefit for some players. Under the terms of previous CBAs, players on postseason teams received varying shares (dependent on team finish) of gate revenues in October. More playoff games would mean more gate revenues, which would stand to benefit some players each year.

That alone doesn’t seem enough to convince the players to wholeheartedly embrace postseason expansion. For one, the league’s interest in larger playoffs is greater than that of the MLBPA, giving the union a powerful bargaining chip to possibly extract concessions on other issues (i.e. service time structure, luxury tax thresholds) of more import to the players. And the MLBPA no doubt has concerns about playoff expansion’s potential indirect effects on team spending habits.

A bigger playoff field inherently means a greater possibility for every team to make the postseason. With increased odds could come complacency. A club with an already-strong roster may not be as motivated to improve under a 14-team field as they’d be under the current system, reasoning that they’re already comfortable with their current odds. Removing the Wild Card game reduces the incentive for teams to win their divisions, since division winners and Wild Card clubs alike would find themselves in an opening round three-game series (although the potential bye for the top seed would increase the incentive for clubs to pursue the league’s best record).

That’s particularly true in MLB, a league with a comparatively high level of variance in small samples. Playoff series in MLB are less predictable than they are in leagues like the NBA and NFL, a trend reinforced in 2021 when the playoff team with the worst regular season record (the Braves) won the World Series. Based on that high level of playoff volatility, many teams could be content to make the postseason — even as one of the lower seeds — and simply hope for a hot stretch once there. Lowering the bar to entry could make it easier for organizations with already strong big league rosters to be less active in free agency, an obvious concern for the players union.

MLB could counter that possibility would be offset by higher desire to improve among mid-tier clubs. After all, that small sample volatility gives teams with even average or marginally above-average rosters an opportunity to go on a lengthy playoff run. Improving from, say, a 76-win roster to an 84-win roster would be significantly more impactful under this vision than it is under the current system.

Still, the MLBPA has seemingly had reservations about the competitive incentives that come with potential playoff expansion. That’s reflected in their counterproposal, as Rogers reported that the union’s most recent offer involves a 12-team postseason, not MLB’s desired 14 clubs. Details on the MLBPA’s offer aren’t clear, although Rogers noted that proposal involved a significant restructuring that would see each league modified from the current three division setup to two divisions apiece (one containing eight clubs, one with seven).

With the MLBPA already showing openness to a 12-team playoff, it’d be a surprise if the next CBA didn’t involve some form of expansion. Keeping the 10-team status quo seems unlikely, since MLB would presumably prefer a 12-team setup to the current system even if the MLBPA doesn’t go for a 14-team tournament. Union amenability to playoff expansion could go a long way towards landing more favorable outcomes in some other areas the MLBPA finds more pressing.

As for fans, playoff expansion seems largely to be a matter of aesthetic preference. Some will naturally recoil at the idea, which would likely eventually result in a new mark for worst regular season record for a World Series champion (currently held by the 83-78 Cardinals of 2006). MLB has traditionally had a smaller postseason field than other major leagues, a point of great appeal for some fans. On the other hand, some viewers are likely to relish a bigger field. Greater opportunity to reach the postseason means more teams remaining in contention. That’s likely to keep more fanbases invested in August and September each season, which will be a feature for many observers.

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Collective Bargaining Agreement Collective Bargaining Issues

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Offseason Notes: Free Agent Spending, Buxton, Twins

By Sean Bavazzano | December 6, 2021 at 10:25pm CDT

With the offseason in limbo, let’s take a look at a couple of pre- and post-lockout topics…

  • ESPN’s MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel polled team executives and agents several weeks ago, asking industry members to predict how much activity would occur before the CBA expired. Those polled were conservative in their predictions, expecting little money to be spent and few free agents to leave the board. With the power of hindsight, we now know that money flew as numerous free agents departed the open market for rich team contracts. Recently, McDaniel again polled a group of agents, asking what to expect when the free agent market unfreezes. For the second time, the agents took a conservative view. The majority of polled agents felt team owners were big spenders in advance of the CBA’s expiration to undermine MLBPA arguments that clubs weren’t spending enough to be competitive. Once a new CBA is reached, these agents expect owners to tighten their purse strings and for free agents to sign for less than their pre-lockout counterparts. History suggests that teams will continue to spend after a new CBA is reached, but it remains to be seen if that trend will continue or if the agents will have their skepticism validated.
  • In a more uplifting display of the agent-MLB team relationship, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes dives into the backstory of Byron Buxton’s recent extension with the Twins. Hayes notes that the 7-year, $100MM extension signed by Buxton took more than four years to negotiate, but was completed on the strength of president Thad Levine’s persistence and Buxton’s desire to be a lifelong Twin. Thanks to the unique incentives structure in the agreement, the contract in many respects serves as a perfect compromise between both parties. The 27-year-old Buxton can earn over $10MM in incentives during every year of the contract, depending on playing time and performance, while staying in Minnesota through his age-34 season. The Twins meanwhile, are on the hook for an annual (and palatable) $15MM salary after next year, and won’t have to pay Buxton superstar money any year that injuries prevent him from making a huge impact on the field. The contract defied industry expectations, per Hayes, as several rival teams expected Minnesota’s budget restraints to scuttle a deal. Ultimately, both sides stayed open-minded and got creative to satisfy the initial goal: to keep one of baseball’s most dynamic talents in a Twins uniform.
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Update On Mets’ Managerial Search

By Sean Bavazzano | December 6, 2021 at 8:31pm CDT

Not long after reports of the A’s conducting their first managerial interview surfaced, the Mets have begun an interview carousel of their own. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets conducted their first managerial interview today, and expect to keep the process going Tuesday. Among the identified managerial candidates include a trio of bench coaches— Houston’s Joe Espada, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro, and Pittsburgh’s Don Kelly— as well as two veteran managers, Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus.

Martino notes that the current list of candidates still has room to grow, but throws cold water on the notion that beloved Mets alumni Curtis Granderson and David Wright will interview after their names surfaced in earlier discussions. Whoever makes the shortlist and earns a shot at interviewing will meet with newly-minted GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Owner Steve Cohen will meet with vetted candidates some time after the initial round of interviews.

The identity of today’s interviewed candidate was none other than Brad Ausmus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ausmus has quite a few things going for his candidacy that surely helped net him the first opportunity to meet with Mets decision-makers. One such factor working in Ausmus’s favor is his relationship to Eppler, as Ausmus served as a special assistant to Eppler before being promoted to dugout manager in 2019 while the two were with the Angels. In other networking news, Fansided’s Robert Murray also notes that Ausmus is a Dartmouth alum like Mets president Sandy Alderson and assistant GM Bryn Alderson.

Unlike some of the candidates who have yet to interview, Ausmus also has a track record as a Major League manager. Between his time with the Angels and Detroit, he has compiled a 386-412 record as a manager, including two winning seasons at the helm and a playoff appearance. It probably also doesn’t hurt Ausmus’s case that his best season in Detroit coincided with Max Scherzer’s last season in the AL. Scherzer, one of the Mets’ marquee pickups this offseason, owns one of the game’s more fiery personalities and is perhaps best handled by a dugout operator who’s familiar with his tempo.

If Quatraro’s name rings a bell it may be because he interviewed with the A’s within the past couple of days. That the Tampa Bay bench coach has landed interviews for 100% of this offseason’s managerial vacancies is no surprise. The Rays have proven their division’s winningest team during Quatraro’s time as bench coach, no small feat considering the powerhouses that reside within those same confines. Martino reports that Quatraro is in line for a Tuesday interview.

There aren’t many updates for the remaining candidates of Espada, Kelly, and Showalter, though they all remain highly credible options in the wake of MLBTR’s profile of their candidacies last week. Jon Heyman does note (via Twitter) that Espada and Eppler share a “strong link” dating back to their time in the Yankees organization, and calls Espada a “serious contender”.

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Houston Astros New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Tampa Bay Rays Billy Eppler Brad Ausmus Buck Showalter Curtis Granderson Don Kelly Joe Espada Matt Quatraro

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Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

By Sean Bavazzano | December 6, 2021 at 6:42pm CDT

The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season. As we saw with Boston’s recent reacquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr. however, the Red Sox clearly aren’t afraid of shuffling players around if it means upgrading their defense. Even on the heels of a modest-for-him campaign, metrics across the board agree that Story would be an improvement with the glove over the incumbent Bogaerts. Of course, with Seattle allegedly showing interest in Story as a third baseman it’s possible Boston can do the same, choosing instead to move Rafael Devers (a subpar defender in his own right) off his position for a presumed upgrade in Story.

The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely).

Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old.

The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece.

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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Trevor Story

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Matt Quatraro Interviews With Athletics; Interview With Mets Likely To Follow

By Anthony Franco | December 6, 2021 at 3:07pm CDT

The A’s have interviewed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro within the past few days as part of their search for a new manager, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He becomes the first known candidate to sit down with Oakland brass.

Quatraro, 48, has been regarded as a potential manager of the future for the past few years. Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant over the last three seasons in Tampa Bay, he interviewed with the Pirates and Giants over the 2019-20 offseason and sat down with the Tigers last fall. Quatraro, who played professionally for seven seasons and topped out at Triple-A, has never managed in the majors. He does have nearly two decades of coaching experience in the Rays’ organization (in addition to a 2014 stint as Indians’ assistant hitting coach). That includes four years managing in the low minors in the Tampa Bay system.

Oakland is on the hunt for a new manager after Bob Melvin’s surprising departure to take over the dugout in San Diego. For the first time in more than a decade, the A’s will go into a season without Melvin leading the charge. Former bench coach Ryan Christenson is departing to assume the same role under Melvin with the Padres, removing one potential in-house option from the mix.

The A’s are one of two teams in search of a new skipper. The other club, the Mets, has also expressed interest in Quatraro. Buster Olney of ESPN reported this morning (on Twitter) that New York was requesting permission from the Rays to interview him. Topkin reports that Tampa Bay has granted that request, writing that Quatraro could sit down with members of the New York front office as soon as tomorrow.

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New York Mets Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Matt Quatraro

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Giants Sign Mauricio Llovera To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 6, 2021 at 12:45pm CDT

The Giants have signed reliever Mauricio Llovera to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The right-hander elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the Phillies’ 40-man roster in August, making him eligible to sign a minor league deal during the lockout.

Llovera’s stint in San Francisco will be his first outside the Philadelphia organization. The 25-year-old has appeared briefly at the big league level for the Phils in each of the last two years, tallying 7 2/3 combined innings of relief. Llovera didn’t find much success during his six MLB appearances this past season, but he averaged a solid 94.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball.

The Venezuela native hasn’t amassed much of a track record in the majors, but Llovera’s coming off a 2021 campaign in which he logged 52 Triple-A frames across 32 appearances. His 3.46 ERA with the Phillies’ top affiliate in Lehigh Valley was solid, but his 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk percentage at the level were both a bit worse than average. Nevertheless, the Giants will take a no-risk flier to see if Llovera can pitch his way into the bullpen mix over the coming months. He has one minor league option year remaining, so San Francisco can shuttle him between the majors and Triple-A Sacramento next season even if he earns a spot on the 40-man roster.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Mauricio Llovera

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White Sox Sign Yacksel Rios To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 6, 2021 at 10:55am CDT

The White Sox have signed right-handed reliever Yacksel Rios to a minor league deal, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. The ongoing lockout and transaction freeze doesn’t prevent teams and players from agreeing to minor league contracts.

Rios was selected by the Phillies in the 12th round of the of the 2011 draft and made his major league debut with the Phils in 2017. After two-plus seasons in Philly, he was claimed on waivers by the Pirates in 2019 but was outrighted after the 2020 season. 2021 saw Rios sign a minor league deal with the Rays, get traded to Seattle, selected to the big leagues, then traded to Boston.

Overall, Rios has 96 2/3 career innings in the big leagues over the past five seasons, with a 5.77 ERA, 21% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate, all of which are a bit worse than league average. He finished 2021 on a fairly positive note, as he had an ERA of 3.70 with the Red Sox over 24 1/3 innings. However, his strikeout and walk rates still held close to his career marks, coming in at 21.4% and 14.3% during that stretch. That coincided with .169 BABIP for Rios during his time with Boston, suggesting that the low ERA likely wasn’t sustainable, and the Red Sox designated him for assignment in September.

Rios, 28, will add some depth for a White Sox bullpen that features a number of high-profile righties, headlined by Liam Hendriks, Craig Kimbrel and recent addition Kendall Graveman.

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Chicago White Sox Transactions Yacksel Rios

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MLBTR Seeking Fantasy Baseball Writer

By Tim Dierkes | December 6, 2021 at 10:25am CDT

MLB Trade Rumors is seeking a fantasy baseball writer.  This is a paid part-time position that will include a weekly article and live chat running at least January through March.  We’re looking for expertise in rotisserie and head-to-head fantasy baseball, but the position won’t involve daily fantasy sports writing.  The ideal candidate will have experience that includes writing paid fantasy baseball articles online.  Applicants should send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com with the following:

  • Explanation of why you might be considered a fantasy baseball expert
  • Samples of online fantasy baseball writing
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Should The Reds Let The Moose Loose?

By Darragh McDonald | December 6, 2021 at 10:16am CDT

After coming up short in this year’s Wild Card race, the Reds’ offseason has mostly continued along sour lines for the team’s fans. On the first day of the offseason, Tucker Barnhart was sent packing to Detroit. Shortly after that, GM Nick Krall said that the club “must align our payroll to our resources,” seemingly forecasting a gloomy winter of budget cuts in Cincinnati. That was followed by Nick Castellanos opting out of his contract and rejecting a qualifying offer. Then, Wade Miley was claimed on waivers by the division-rival Cubs, despite Miley having a $10MM club option for 2022 — an eminently reasonable salary for a pitcher who was worth 2.9 fWAR (per FanGraphs) or 5.6 bWAR (according to Baseball Reference).

In the four weeks since that time, all of the rumours surrounding the club have been about other teams circling their rotation like vultures, trying to acquire Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle. It’s fairly logical that teams would come calling for those three talented arms, as they all come with two years of inexpensive control and pitching is simply always in demand. However, if you’re the Reds and you want to shave money off your payroll, a preferable option might be someone whose name hasn’t come up in trade rumors at all: Mike Moustakas.

“Moose” has two years remaining on the four-year, $64MM deal he signed two years ago, then the largest free agent signing in Reds franchise history. (That mark was tied the following month with the deal for Castellanos.) Moustakas will make $16MM in 2022, $18MM in 2023 and then Cincinnati holds a $20MM club option for 2024 that comes with a $4MM buyout.

That $16MM salary for 2022 makes him the second-highest paid player on team, trailing only Joey Votto. Moving that contract could therefore save about as much money as moving two of their three in-demand starters, given that Gray will be making $10.7 million this year, and Castillo and Mahle are projected to earn arbitration salaries of $7.6MM and $5.6MM, respectively. It also makes sense to move Moustakas given that his incumbent position of second base has been taken over by Jonathan India, who had a breakout season in 2021, earning himself the NL Rookie of the Year award in the process.

The trouble for Cincy is that trading Moustakas now would be selling low, as he just had an injury-ravaged campaign that was his worst in years, maybe the worst of his career. The infielder made multiple trips to the injured list due to issues with his heel, resulting in 62 games and 206 plate appearance. Even when he could take the field, Moustakas didn’t look like his old self. From 2015 to 2020, Moustakas hit .262/.326/.490, which amounts to a wRC+ of 113 and 12.5 fWAR. In 2021, he slashed a meager .208/.282/.372, producing a wRC+ of 70 and negative 0.4 fWAR — both career worsts.

Trading players when their value is low is generally unwise strategy, but for a Reds team on a limited budget, it might be the least-bad option they have. On paper, they currently have a platoon at third base, with Moustakas sharing time with Eugenio Suarez. However, Suarez is also coming off a down season and doesn’t have injuries to blame for it (although he could blame the team’s ill-advised attempts to turn him into a shortstop at the age of 29). Suarez has three years and $35MM left on his deal, with a salary of $11.3MM in 2022. That means the club currently has over $27MM dedicated to third base, between Suarez and Moustakas. For a club looking to cut costs, that seems even less wise than trading low on one of them.

Despite coming off a terrible campaign, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that another club could see the reasons for optimism. At 33, Moustakas is not too old to return to his previous form, as evidenced by his teammate Votto, who just had a tremendous year in his age-37 season. If he can return to health, he could be seen as an intriguing buy-low candidate. However, would a team give up anything of value for Moustakas while Kyle Seager is just sitting there on the open market?

Seager is less than a year older than Moustakas, has never had serious injury issues, and MLBTR predicts Seager for a deal in the range of two years and $24MM. Brad Miller, Josh Harrison or Jonathan Villar represent even less-expensive third base options on the open market. Win-now teams would also presumably be more interested in a trade candidate like Matt Chapman, assuming Oakland follows through on their planned selloff.

That means the Reds would almost certainly have to sweeten the pot of any Moose-based deal, perhaps including prospects. For a recent example, the Brewers recently traded Jackie Bradley Jr., who was also coming off arguably the worst season of his career. They had to include a pair of prospects, but still got a useful player out of the deal in the form of Hunter Renfroe.

The Reds’ front office seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as while they weren’t good enough in 2021 and need to improve, they haven’t been given enough money from ownership to do so. On the other hand, Cincinnati also has too much young talent to go into a full rebuild, with India, Tyler Stephenson, Vladimir Gutierrez, Lucas Sims, Jose Barrero, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo forming a nice core of cheap and controllable players, alongside veterans like Votto, Suarez, Jesse Winker, and the rotation trio of Castillo, Gray and Mahle. Finding a version of the Renfroe trade could be their best path to supplementing a talented roster, instead of subtracting from it by trading one of their starting pitchers.

Perhaps a team like the Nationals would be interested in Moustakas and a couple of prospects? After all, they’ve just undergone a big selloff and seem unlikely to be aggressive in returning to contention in the short term. After running payrolls near $200MM in many recent years, the Nats are only projected at $118MM for 2022, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They could easily take on the $16MM owed to Moose and have him off the books by their last year of control over Juan Soto in 2024. Moustakas would also give Washington a fallback option in the event Carter Kieboom continues with his struggles at the MLB level.

The Diamondbacks have a tall hill to climb in order to return to being competitive, as they are staring up at the Dodgers, Giants and Padres. They only have about $85MM on the books for 2022, per Martinez, but have had payrolls in the range of $130MM in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They currently have Josh Rojas penciled in at third base, but he’s actually played at second more often so far. If the long-rumored Ketel Marte trade ever comes to fruition, Rojas could take over at second with Moose at third.

The Rockies are interested in adding a third baseman, as evidenced by their rumored interest in Kris Bryant. But if Bryant goes elsewhere, why not take on Moustakas and hope that he can use the Colorado air to get back into a groove at the plate? As notable as Moustakas’ salary is, his $16MM figure is certainly lower than what Bryant will earn in free agency.

And let’s not discount the possibility of a competitive team believing enough in a Moustakas bounceback to look for this kind of a deal. After all, the Red Sox just made it at far as the ALCS in 2021, but they’re now taking on extra prospects and crossing their fingers in the hope of Bradley rebounding from a brutal offensive year.  Bradley comes with a higher floor than Moustakas because of his excellent glovework, but still, the logic is similar. Buy low on a big leaguer and make a wish, while filling out your team’s prospect pipeline. Even if the Reds can’t get themselves an exciting return on a deal like this, the real return would be hanging onto Castillo, Gray and Mahle for another couple of runs at the NL Central while the Pirates and Cubs are retooling.

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