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Padres Claim Shaun Anderson Off Waivers From Orioles

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The Padres claimed right-hander Shaun Anderson off waivers from the Orioles today, both teams announced. The Padres optioned the right-hander to Triple-A El Paso.

Anderson’s time with the Orioles was brief, as he made just seven appearances totalling 10 innings after being claimed off waivers from the Twins. Anderson surrendered 10 earned runs on 17 hits and five walks while striking out seven. He’ll provide depth for the Padres, whose pitching staff has struggled to stay healthy this season.

As for the Orioles, they made a number of their own roster moves today, reinstating Ryan Hartman from the injured list, recalling Isaac Mattson, and designating Conner Greene for assignment. Greene, 26, made just three appearances for the O’s, yielding six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings.

MLBTR Poll: Can The A’s Replace Ramon Laureano?

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The Oakland A’s were a popular pick to regress this season after winning the AL West with a .600 win percentage during the truncated 2020 season. The presumption of the A’s decline was fueled by the departures of impact players in free agency: namely, Marcus Semien to Toronto, Tommy La Stella to San Francisco, Liam Hendriks to Chicago, and Robbie Grossman to Detroit.

Those were notable losses, but lackluster replacements spoke more to the overall skepticism surrounding the team: Elvis Andrus and an aged Jed Lowrie in the infield, Mitch Moreland taking many of the at-bats in the designated hitter spot that went to Grossman (with holders Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, or Stephen Piscotty taking his spot in the field), and Trevor Rosenthal signed to assume the closer’s role.

Of course, the details of the “Moneyball” model that made the A’s front office famous has changed over the years, but one thing that hasn’t is their non-linear approach to roster creation. Replacing Semien, La Stella, Hendriks, and Grossman wasn’t a casting problem. If it were, the collective 0.6 rWAR accrued by their replacements would be enough to tank this roster.

Instead, the A’s are outperforming their projections with a 62-48 record, which carries a 57.4% chance of making the playoffs. They’re just three games behind the Astros for the division lead, 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees for the second wild card spot.

It seems like every year now that the A’s simply find a way. They were left for dead mid-way through last season, too, when star Matt Chapman was lost for the year. When they chose to replace him with scrapheap pickup Jake Lamb and platoon-players like Chad Pinder and Vimael Machin, it seemed that the A’s were doomed for a second-half skid.

Not so. Despite posting nearly identical win percentages the two seasons prior (.599 in both 2018 and 2019, 97-win seasons), 2020 marked Oakland’s first division title since 2012 and 2013. With the Ramon Laureano suspension now in effect, can the A’s yet again survive the loss of a key two-way position player?

Obviously, the acquisition of Starling Marte at the deadline looks even better now than it did a week ago. He certainly stands as a more significant replacement than Lamb from a year ago. And yet, bringing in Marte seemed like such a boon because he shored up a real weak spot in the lineup. That spot is back to being a question mark for the final two months of the season.

Marte can ably fill the void defensively. Despite Laureano’s flashy tools, there’s an argument to be made that an outfield of Mark Canha, Marte, and Seth Brown could be better defensively. Laureano’s -1 OAA comes in last behind Marte at +6 and Canha and Brown both at +4. DRS and UZR give Laureano more credit, but Marte ought to nevertheless mostly replace his glove.

With the bat, Brown and Stephen Piscotty are likely to step back in as a relatively straightforward platoon in right. Piscotty’s been below-average this season, but he’s better against lefties with a 98 wRC+. The same can be said for Brown going the other way with his 97 wRC+ against right-handers. Together that doesn’t exactly add up to Laureano’s 114 wRC+, but it helps close the gap.

Of course, replacing a player for the A’s always involved a bit of sleight of hand. Utility man Josh Harrison might be the answer to replacing Laureano, either by slotting directly into the outfield, or by taking time at second while Kemp moves to the grass. Harrison played his way back into relevance with a .291/.363/.431 line over 450 plate appearances with the Nationals the past two seasons. The upgrade from Aramis Garcia (54 wRC+) to Yan Gomes (104 wRC+) may also help pick up some of the slack — as might the addition of Andrew Chafin in the pen.

So how worried should A’s fans be? Will they have enough to hold off the onrushing Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners for a playoff spot? Can they catch the Astros? What say you of Oakland’s chances the rest of the way?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

East Notes: Red Sox, Martinez, Houck, Rays, McHugh, Phillies, Anderson

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The Red Sox have placed designated hitter J.D. Martinez on the COVID-related injured list today after he wasn’t feeling well, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). Martinez joins centerfielder Jarren Duran as players recently placed on the COVID-related IL. Test results have not returned for either Martinez or Duran, notes The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. Connor Wong has been added to the active roster in Martinez’s place.

  • Tanner Houck was also added to the roster to make a start in today’s doubleheader, notes Abraham. He will be their 27th man. Houck has a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings, which includes four starts and a pair of appearances out of the pen — his last start coming on July 28th. His Triple-A numbers haven’t been quite as good, but no matter where he’s pitched, he’s been striking out batters, owning a combined 31.3 percent strikeout rate on the year.
  • Elsewhere in the American League East, the Rays reinstated Collin McHugh from the injured list, optioning Louis Head to Triple-A, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Head has been tremendous when active, tossing 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA/2.71 FIP. McHugh is no slouch himself, however, with a 1.51 ERA/1.36 FIP across 41 2/3 innings. Both right-handers have been able to fill a role as a multi-inning reliever for manager Kevin Cash.
  • In the National League, the Phillies placed Chase Anderson on the 10-day injured list with right triceps tendinitis, recalling Nick Maton from Triple-A, per the team. With a 6.75 ERA/5.85 FIP on the year, one would think that Anderson’s rotation spot would be up for grabs if his absence.The first-place Phillies won’t need to fill his rotation spot until next Saturday, notes The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (via Twitter).

Yankees Place Aroldis Chapman On 10-Day Injured List

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The Yankees have placed Aroldis Chapman on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to yesterday, per the team. In a corresponding move, Nick Nelson has been recalled from Triple-A.

It hasn’t been Chapman’s best season on the whole, but he had seemed to figure some things out of late. He had posted seven consecutive scoreless outings going back to July 21st. In fact, since allowing nine earned runs across three outings at the end of June, Chapman has posted a 0.82 ERA over his last 11 innings.

Nelson, 25, has been burned for 14 earned runs across 13 1/3 innings in 10 appearances (2 starts) this season. He’s fared much better in Triple-A, however, where he owns a 3.50 ERA across 36 innings with 46 strikeouts to 18 walks.

With Chapman out, the Yankees will likely turn to Chad Green to close games. Green has three saves on the year to go with 15 holds and a 3.21 ERA/3.45 FIP in 56 innings of work. Alternatively, veteran Zack Britton has plenty of experience closing, and he does appear to be rounding himself into form with a 2.57 ERA over his past seven outings. Jonathan Loaisiga also has three saves this season with a 2.53 ERA and 13 holds.

Soto Expects To Go “Year By Year” With Nationals

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On their way to back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2010-2011, the Nationals have for the first time in a long time turned their attention to the future. If they are able to successfully pull of a “retool” — thereby avoiding the dreaded “rebuild” — it will likely be fueled by the rapid development of a stable of young players that includes Victor Robles, Luis Garcia, Carter Kieboom, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray.

In trading away veterans at the deadline, the Nationals targeted more advanced prospects like Ruiz and Gray for the express purpose of keying a quick turnaround. That’s because Juan Soto remains on the roster, and if they plan on signing the all-world outfielder to a contract extension, the Nats will want to avoid a drawn-out rebuild. Soto is under team control for three seasons beyond this one, and as a Scott Boras client, he’s unlikely to sign long-term.

Soto said as much recently, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. When asked about the possibility of extending, Soto said, “I’m going to try to take it year by year. I’m just going to keep playing baseball, not think about contracts or whatever … right now, I was a little frustrated, but I have to concentrate on the field, on how to be better for myself and my teammates. If they want to talk to my agent, they can talk to him. But let me play.”

The Nationals are better equipped than many clubs to handle the uncertainty of Soto’s long-term future because of their relationship with Boras. They’ve gone down this road before with Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg. And while one view might notice that two of those three players left for other organizations, it’s also important to note that the team did bring Strasburg back on a monster $245MM deal. Besides, with Scherzer’s contract off the books and a Trea Turner extension no longer something they need to worry about, the Nats have long-term money to spend.

They’ll still need to convince Soto that Washington is where he wants to be. To that end, they should have a leg up on the competition. He has, after all, already won a World Series in DC, and with the Nats’ history of spending and pushing for competitive ball clubs, one would think Soto could envision an enviable long-term future.

On the Nats’ side, there’s the lingering question of how aggressively the Nats will work to make Soto a lifelong National. The Nats tend to put their money behind pitching — hence the long-term deals for Strasburg, Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin, while Harper, Rendon, and Turner have all been shown the door.

Soto, however, might be a generational player even beyond that star-studded threesome. On the one hand, there are few players in the game as talented as Harper, Rendon, and Turner. But on the other hand, Soto might just be one of those guys, and his youth makes him all the more likely to garner a “lifetime” contract like those mega deals signed by Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Harper himself.

What might be worrying for Nats’ fans is that Harper’s a pretty darn good career comp for Soto, and while they made an earnest effort to re-sign Harper, they were ultimately okay with letting him walk.

At the very least, Nats apologists can point to Strasburg and Ryan Zimmerman as two players they were intent on keeping – and did.  From a personality standpoint, Soto’s understated confidence and humility might fall more in line with Strasburg and Zim than the more vivacious Harper.

If Washington feels about Soto the way they have about Stras and Zim, he should be a National for life. Regardless, it doesn’t look like we’ll know for sure until the winter following the 2024 season.

Central Notes: White Sox, Cubs, Tigers

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The White Sox rolled out a $128MM payroll on opening day this year, already the highest in franchise history, but don’t expect Chicago to curb their spending now. Team options for the newly acquired Cesar Hernandez and Craig Kimbrel would bring their payroll for next season up to $150MM — and that’s before arbitration raises – but owner Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Rick Hahn have prepared for this payroll spike and they’re ready for it, per The Athletic’s James Fegan. If Hernandez and/or Kimbrel aren’t part of the 2022 Sox, it won’t be because of their impact on the payroll. Elsewhere from the flyover states…

Ramon Laureano Suspended Eighty Games After Positive PED Test

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Major League Baseball announced this afternoon that Athletics outfielder Ramón Laureano has been suspended for eighty games without pay after testing positive for Nandrolone, a banned performance-enhancing substance. He’ll miss the remainder of the season. The A’s have 53 games left in 2021, so Laureano’s suspension will carry over for the first 27 games of the 2022 campaign as well — minus any 2021 playoff games Oakland participates in, which are included as games served for suspension purposes.

Laureano released a statement via the MLB Players Association:

“I would never knowingly ingest any banned substance and put the game that I’ve loved all my life at risk. When I found out that I tested positive for Nandrolone, I was shocked. I take great care of my body and have an extremely regimented diet. Based on the minuscule amount that was briefly in my body, I’ve learned that it is likely that it was contamination of something I ingested. … I’d like to apologize for the distraction that this might cause my teammates, Billy Beane, David Forst, and the entire Oakland organization, community, and fan base. I am devastated. Anyone who truly knows me as a person knows how much I love the game and that I would never intentionally do something like this.”

It’s a devastating blow for the A’s, who trail the Astros by four games in the AL West. Oakland currently holds a 1.5 game lead over the Yankees for the American League’s final playoff spot, with the Blue Jays and Mariners also nipping at their heels. The A’s will need to hold onto their position in the standings (and make a potential postseason push) without one of their top players.

Laureano has been an average or better hitter in all four of his big league seasons. The 27-year-old has a quality .246/.317/.443 line (114 wRC+) across 378 plate appearances this season. Oakland’s starting center fielder all year, he’d recently kicked over to right field to accommodate trade deadline acquisition Starling Marte.

The A’s acquiring Marte from the Marlins looms particularly large now. (It’s not clear whether the Oakland front office was aware of Laureano’s positive test at the time, although today’s suspension announcement presumably comes after Laureano had exhausted the appeals process). Marte will continue to get everyday run in center, but the corner outfield is now a major question mark.

The A’s have given a decent amount of corner outfield playing time to each of Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Stephen Piscotty, Tony Kemp and Chad Pinder (currently on the injured list with a hamstring strain) this season. Canha will have one corner outfield spot locked down on a nightly basis, but it seems Oakland will have to mix and match in the other spot — as they had to do before acquiring Marte in the first place. Utilityman Josh Harrison is getting the start in left field (with Canha in right) this evening against the Rangers.

The timing of the suspension seems as if it could carry significant repercussions for Laureano as well. Players who violate the MLB – MLBPA Joint Drug Agreement are placed on the restricted list and do not receive MLB service time for the duration of their suspension. Laureano entered the season with 2.059 years of big league service. Before today’s suspension, he accrued an estimated 128 days of MLB service in 2021, pushing his career total to approximately 3.015 presently.

That’ll be more than enough for Laureano to reach arbitration as scheduled this winter, but he also won’t receive service time while he serves the remainder of the ban next season. Under the A’s 2022 schedule, Laureano would be eligible to return to the roster for Oakland’s April 30 game against the Guardians. Assuming he remains on the roster for the rest of the season (which runs through October 2), he’d tally 156 days of service.

By that estimate, he’d conclude the season at 3.171 years of MLB service, one day shy of the 3.172 threshold required to push him over four full seasons. In that scenario, Laureano’s path to free agency would be delayed by an entire year, as he’d be eligible for arbitration four times and wouldn’t reach the open market until after the 2025 season — instead of after the 2024 campaign as had been the expectation prior to today.

It’s worth noting that those estimates are unofficial, and there’s also the matter of the postseason to consider. If the A’s make a deep playoff run this year, that’d allow Laureano to return earlier than April 30, 2022. In that case, he’d be in position to accrue enough service time to surpass the four-year threshold next season, keeping him on pace for free agency during the 2024-25 offseason.

It’s a unique scenario that could have significant ramifications for Laureano and the A’s at some point down the road. In the nearer term, the bigger focus for the organization will be on continuing to hold onto a postseason spot without one of their best position players.

COVID Notes: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Protocols

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The latest on COVID-19 around the league:

  • The Brewers have been dealing with virus spread throughout the clubhouse in recent days, and another pair of players has tested positive. Starter Adrian Houser and reliever Jandel Gustave tested positive and were placed on the COVID IL, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). They join Josh Hader, Hunter Strickland, Eric Lauer, Jake Cousins, Keston Hiura and Christian Yelich on the COVID list. Yelich was cleared to return to the club today, but Milwaukee has elected to hold off on activating him for now as the star outfielder works his way back into game shape following a ten-day absence.
  • The Diamondbacks have also been hit by COVID spread recently, but they got one of their players back today. Reliever Joe Mantiply, who had been out as a close contact of a player(s) who tested positive, was reinstated from the IL before this evening’s game against the Padres. Fellow southpaw Ryan Buchter, who was selected last week, was removed from the 40-man roster and returned to Triple-A Reno. As a COVID replacement, Buchter could be reassigned to the minor leagues without needing to pass through waivers.
  • The recent uptick in viral spread (the Rockies and Yankees have each had similar issues recently) in both the league and the United States as a whole has caught the attention of MLB and the Players Association. After relaxing restrictions for vaccinated players and staff in mid-June, MLB is considering tightening protocols, reports Evan Drellich of the Athletic. The league updated its mask policy at Spring Training facilities this week, requiring those working at the facilities to wear masks in indoor areas regardless of vaccination status, Drellich writes. It seems MLB would prefer to tighten mask and distancing protocols rather than “aggressively” incentivize further vaccination among players and staff. Drellich writes that 85.5% of Tier 1 personnel leaguewide (players, coaches and other staff members in direct contact with the team) have been vaccinated.

Examining A Potential Ke’Bryan Hayes Extension

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The Pirates made an extension offer to Ke’Bryan Hayes back in Spring Training, which obviously didn’t manifest in a deal, but Hayes himself confirmed to The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel this week that it wasn’t the team’s first effort. As Hayes explains, the Bucs also came to him with an offer before he’d even played in a big league game, during Spring Training 2020.

While the two sides still haven’t worked out a deal, Hayes made clear that he’s open to a long-term pact, wants to step up as a leader of future Pirates clubs and hopes to “win a championship with the team that drafted me.” For now, his focus is on a strong finish to the 2021 season.

Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out the column for full quotes from Hayes on his future with the club. But for the purposes of this post, let’s take a look at some historical context to see just where Hayes might slot in if he and the Bucs were to approach an extension in earnest. As always, service time is crucial to these explorations, and historical precedent is quite often relevant.

Hayes will finish the 2021 season with a year-plus of Major League service time. We haven’t seen a third baseman in that service class ink a long-term pact since Jedd Gyorko’s five-year, $35MM agreement with the Padres back in 2014. That seven-year-old deal probably won’t hold much weight as a comp — particularly since even with his recent slump, Hayes has been more productive now than Gyorko was at the time. At the time of Gyorko’s extension, he carried a .242/.295/.433 line through 573 plate appearances — four percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’d previously been regarded as a top-end prospect, but not to the same extent as Hayes.

Conversely, Hayes has slashed at a .282/.351/.463 pace through his first 319 Major League plate appearances. His 2020 performance vastly outweighs his 2021 performance, but his ’21 production has perhaps been sapped by a wrist injury that shelved him for two months early in the year. He’s been a better hitter than Gyorko, plays better defense, and that extension is rather dated by now.

Interestingly, however, there simply haven’t been many position players in this one-plus bracket of service time to use as a point of comparison. That’s been especially true in recent years, when touted young players have either signed before reaching a full year of service or waited to further establish themselves in the Majors. Ozzie Albies, who inked a seven-year, $35MM extension in 2019 is the most recent comparable, but that was one of the more widely panned extensions in recent memory. Hayes, presumably, would be looking to set some form of new bar for players in this general service bracket if he were to seriously entertain offers.

Of course, whether the Pirates would want any part of setting a new precedent in any service bracket remains questionable, at best. The largest contract the Pirates have ever given out was a six-year, $60MM one to catcher Jason Kendall way back in the year 2000. That pact ties them with Cleveland for the smallest franchise-record contract awarded to an individual player. Biertempfel speculates within his column that the Pirates may already have put forth a larger offer than that to Hayes. If that is indeed the case, it’d be a rather shocking effort from such a historically low-payroll club.

Dodgers Activate Trea Turner; Jimmy Nelson To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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The Dodgers announced they’ve reinstated Trea Turner from the COVID-19 injured list. He’s not in tonight’s starting lineup, but he could make his team debut off the bench this evening. Reliever Victor González has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 4, with right knee inflammation to open active roster space. To create 40-man roster space, the team has transferred righty Jimmy Nelson to the 60-day injured list. Nelson will undergo Tommy John surgery and a right flexor tendon repair procedure.

Whether tonight or tomorrow, Turner is soon to get into his first game as a Dodger. The All-Star shortstop came over alongside Max Scherzer last week as part of deadline season’s top blockbuster. The 28-year-old had tested positive for COVID-19 shortly before the trade, though, so he’s remained in isolation until today.

Turner adds another elite player to a lineup already chock-full of stars. He’s hitting .322/.369/.521 with eighteen home runs across 420 plate appearances, his second consecutive season of elite offensive output. One of the game’s best baserunners, Turner has also swiped 21 bags, all while playing average or better defense at shortstop. The whole package makes Turner one of the sport’s most valuable position players, although he seems likely to slide over to second base in deference to Corey Seager in L.A. Wherever he plays, Turner should be a massive boon to a Dodger club that trails the league-best Giants by four games in the NL West.

It’s not all positive news on the health front for the Dodgers with Nelson undergoing surgery. While the club didn’t provide a timetable for his return beyond ruling him out for the rest of this season, it seems likely he’ll miss the entire 2022 campaign rehabbing. It’s crushing news for a respected, high-quality pitcher who has been plagued by a series of long-term health issues in recent seasons.

Nelson looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter after a stellar 2017 season with the Brewers. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2018 campaign, though. That kept him out for a good chunk of the 2019 season too, with an elbow injury costing him another month that year. Nelson was ineffective when he was healthy enough to pitch, and Milwaukee non-tendered him at the end of that season.

The Dodgers signed Nelson during the 2019-20 offseason, but a July back surgery prevented him from pitching all year. Los Angeles brought Nelson back on a minor league deal to work in relief, and he made good on his end of that agreement. The 32-year-old pitched to a sterling 1.86 ERA over 29 frames this year, emerging as a potential high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation on Wednesday. That issue apparently requires surgical repair.

Nelson will hit free agency at the end of this season. He could field some multi-year offers from teams with an eye toward the 2023 campaign. Alternatively, Nelson could rehab the injury on his own and look to market himself to clubs after he has returned to health. Either way, it’s a devastating turn of events for a player who has already overcome more than his fair share of health issues.

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