Reds Sign First-Rounder Matt McLain
The Reds have agreed to a deal with first-round draft pick Matt McLain, the team announced. MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (via Twitter) reports that the UCLA shortstop will receive a bonus of $4.625MM, well above the $3,609,700 assigned slot price for the 17th overall pick.
This marks the second time that McLain (who turns 22 in August) has been a first-round selection, as the Diamondbacks took him 25th overall back in 2018. Rather than begin his pro career out of high school, McLain went to play college ball at UCLA and ended up elevating his draft profile, despite a broken thumb that shortened his 2021 season.
The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked McLain as the seventh-best prospect of this year’s draft class, and in fact the pundits (Baseball America ranked him 10th, Fangraphs 11th, MLB Pipeline 12th, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel 15th) all had McLain slightly higher on their boards than the 17th overall selection. McLain’s throwing arm, hit tool, and running ability are all graded as pluses by BA and Pipeline, though his according to Baseball America’s scouting report, “his fringe-average raw power will likely translate more to doubles with a wood bat and limit him to 10-15 home runs per season.” Defensively, McLain has improved his stock as a shortstop, though there is some feeling that he might eventually be ideally suited as a second baseman, or perhaps even as a center fielder given his athleticism.
Twins’ Owner: Team “Absolutely Not” Going Into Rebuild
Anyone who’s even loosely followed the 2021 MLB season knows it’s been a disaster year for the Twins. The American League Central’s last-place club, Minnesota has already traded Nelson Cruz, will likely trade Michael Pineda in the coming days and will surely have interest in several other key pieces. That said, given the team’s payroll space, cost-controlled group of young hitters, solid farm system and other factors, it’s long seemed likely they’ll aim to reload and be competitive again in 2022. Owner Jim Pohlad effectively confirmed that this week in an interview with Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
Asked by Hayes whether this nightmarish season could “change your direction to rebuilding,” Pohlad replied emphatically: “Absolutely not. We want to be in the win window all the time. We expected that to be the case this year.”
Obviously, that didn’t happen for the Twins, who have weathered absences for Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, Kenta Maeda, Pineda and others. More problematic has been that nearly all of Minnesota’s offseason free-agent expenditures (the since-traded Cruz being a notable exception) have failed to live up to expectations.
The subsequent 43-58 record has positioned the Twins as a clear deadline seller, but Pohlad’s comments today reinforce what was already widely expected: this isn’t likely to be an “everything must go” fire sale. The team is receiving interest in players controlled beyond 2021, most notably top starter Jose Berrios, but the asking price on him has reportedly been high and focused on near-MLB assets. Given Pohlad’s comments and the fact that the Twins zeroed in on Triple-A pitchers in last week’s Cruz trade — both Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman could be options in Minnesota this year — that focus on big-league-ready talent is to be expected.
All of this is particularly worth considering as the clock ticks toward Friday’s 4pm ET trade deadline. For instance, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Twins have had some early talks on Kepler. That was already known after multiple reports linked Kepler to the Yankees last week, but the broader question of Kepler’s general “availability” (or lack thereof) should be considered in conjunction with ownership’s comments. Were the Twins looking to completely start over, players like Kepler, Berrios, Taylor Rogers (prior to his finger injury) and others would be strong trade candidates. As it stands, they’re more long shots with weighty asking prices.
It’s also possible that some of the impending free agents who do seem like locks to move could be flipped and then again pursued in free agency. Pineda, who pitched well tonight in what could be his final start with the Twins, told reporters after the game that Minnesota has come to feel like home and he hopes to remain (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park). A trade still seems overwhelmingly likely, but Hayes tweets that Pineda would have interest in returning for 2022 and beyond even if (or when) he is ultimately traded this week.
Cubs Trade Andrew Chafin To A’s
The A’s have made their first upgrade of deadline season, acquiring veteran left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin from the Cubs in exchange for minor league outfielder Greg Deichmann and minor league right-hander Daniel Palencia, per a club announcement.
Chafin, 31, inked a one-year, $2.75MM deal over the winter. It contains a $5.25MM mutual option for the 2022 season ($500K buyout), though it’s exceedingly rare for both parties to pick up their side of a mutual option. Generally speaking, if the team exercises their end of a mutual option, it’s because the player has performed well enough to make that price a bargain, which prompts the player to decline and return to free agency. If the player picks up his half, it’s usually due to poor performance or injury, and the team will subsequently decline its half. More often than not, mutual options are simple accounting measures. The A’s likely view him as a rental reliever for the remainder of the season, though the option technically creates the chance that he’ll return.
The Cubs have consistently taken a frugal approach to their offseason bullpen construction in recent years, but Chafin is one of their better low-cost signings. The longtime D-backs lefty has a 2.06 ERA with a 24.7 percent strikeout rate, an eight percent walk rate and a 50 percent ground-ball rate in 39 1/3 innings. It’s the best season of what has quietly been a solid career for Chafin, who carries a 3.14 ERA and strong 24.9 percent strikeout rate through 314 innings at the big league level.
Oakland relievers rank tenth in the Majors with a collective 3.78 ERA and 12th with a 4.16 FIP, and adding Chafin will only further strengthen an already solid group. There’s value beyond simply adding another effective arm, though. Jake Diekman has been the only consistent left-handed presence in manager Bob Melvin’s bullpen, so adding Chafin to the bunch will give the A’s an easier time matching up late in games. Athletics relievers also have the second-lowest combined strikeout percentage of any bullpen in MLB (20.6 percent), and Chafin will give them a solid boost in that department.
From a payroll standpoint, the A’s are only on the hook for about $835K of Chafin’s remaining base salary, although there are other factors to consider. The mutual option comes with a $500K buyout, and Chafin’s deal also comes with $500K worth of incentives that are fairly easy to unlock. He can earn a quartet of $125K bonuses based on games pitched, beginning with his 50th appearance of the season. Chafin, who has pitched in 43 games already, would then earn an additional $125K for each of his 55th, 60th and 65th appearances of the year.
Deichmann is a solid get in a deal for a rental reliever, as he’s a largely MLB-ready prospect enjoying a strong 2021 season in Triple-A. The 2017 second-rounder ranks ninth among Oakland farmhands at FanGraphs and at MLB.com, and he’s currently batting .300/.432/.449 (127 wRC+) in 257 plate appearances with Las Vegas.
There have been concerns about his bat-to-ball skills in the past — understandably so after he whiffed at a 34.1 percent clip in Class-A Advanced in 2018 — but Deichmann’s 23 percent punchout rate so far in Triple-A is the lowest of his career. Those strikeouts are also part of the expected package for a player with this type of pop; FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pegs Deichmann’s raw power at a 70 (on the 20-80 scale), but he’s yet to unlock that prodigious power in games. Deichmann’s career-high in home runs is 11, and he’s connected on four so far in 2021. It’s worth noting that he’s had some injuries that might’ve impacted that, including a broken hamate bone and a shoulder injury sustained on a diving catch (link via MLB.com’s Jim Callis).
Palencia, 21, signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2020 and has only recently made his professional debut. He’s tossed 14 1/3 innings for the Athletics’ Low-A affiliate in Stockton, yielding 11 runs on 17 hits, six walks and three hit batters with 14 strikeouts. FanGraphs pegs him 12th in the Oakland system, noting that his plus fastball and above-average breaking ball impressed in a short look this spring before he was sent out of camp. Obviously, with last year’s scratched minor league season and the fact that Palencia only signed in early 2020, scouts haven’t gotten long looks at him, though the Cubs clearly saw enough to pique their interest despite some rough surface-level numbers in Stockton.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had first indicated that the Cubs were closing in on a trade involving Chafin (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the A’s were the second team and that Deichmann was going back to Chicago (Twitter links). The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro first reported Palencia’s inclusion.
Cubs Not Actively Shopping Kyle Hendricks
The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson and are expected to make several more deals before Friday’s 4pm ET trade deadline, but MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter) that top starter Kyle Hendricks is “definitely not being shopped” and that the team would only move him if approached with a strong offer.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer effectively confirmed earlier this month that an 11-game losing streak had pushed his club into seller territory. At the time, Hoyer spoke generally about keeping an open mind to moves “that can help build the next great Cubs team.” So while the Cubs may not be calling all 29 other teams and actively trying to find a taker for Hendricks, it stands to reason that a team could put together an offer that makes Hoyer & Co. consider parting with its longest-tenured pitcher.
Hendricks, 31, signed a four-year, $55MM contract extension with a fifth-year option a couple springs ago and is still not halfway through that deal. He’s owed $14MM both in 2022 and 2023, and the contract contains a $16MM option with a $1.5MM buyout. As of this writing, he’s owed $5.19MM through the end of the 2021 season, bringing the total sum he’s still guaranteed on the contract to $36.19MM (including the option buyout).
It’s a more-than-reasonable price to pay for a starter of Hendricks’ caliber. The right-hander ranks 16th in the Majors with 117 1/3 innings pitched this season and ranked third among all MLB pitchers in total innings during last year’s shortened season (81 1/3 frames). He’s worked to a solid 3.61 ERA so far in 2021 and continued to demonstrate some of the game’s best command. Hendricks has walked 4.5 percent of his opponents, and while his 17.5 percent strikeout rate is below both the league average and his career average, he’s had success for his entire career in spite of below-average strikeout numbers.
Hendricks has been one of the game’s most durable starters since breaking in with the Cubs back in 2014. He’s only had two trips to the injured list in his big league career: a 16-day absence for shoulder inflammation back in 2019 and a six-week absence due to tendinitis in his hand back in 2017. He made 12 starts during last year’s 60-game schedule, averaged 30 per year from 2015-19 and is on pace for another full slate of games in 2021, having already taken the hill on 20 occasions.
An oddity in today’s game, Hendricks averages just 87.4 mph on his fastball and hasn’t cracked even an 89 mph average since the 2014 season. He relies on that aforementioned command, strong ground-ball tendencies and gobs of weak contact to find his success. There are few pitchers like that in 2021, but he’s made it work for several years now. He probably won’t ever repeat 2016’s 2.13 ERA and third-place Cy Young finish, but Hendricks carries a 3.33 ERA through 714 1/3 innings in the five seasons since that third-place finish.
If the Cubs aren’t presented with a sufficient offer for Hendricks over the next four days, it seems likely that he’ll again see his name kicked about the rumor circuit over the winter. Hoyer has pushed back in the past on the notion that the Cubs are going to engineer a full-scale rebuild, but between the offseason Yu Darvish deal and Hoyer’s acknowledgment of change on the horizon this summer, it’s clear that Chicago is taking at least something of a step back. Hendricks would have even wider appeal this winter than he does at the deadline, when more clubs are viewing themselves as contenders and when many have reset the luxury-tax concerns that are currently hamstringing their front offices’ ability to acquire players on notable salaries (e.g. Hendricks).
Blue Jays Select Kirby Snead, Designate Jacob Barnes
The Blue Jays announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander Kirby Snead to the Major League roster and opened a spot by designating right-hander Jacob Barnes for assignment.
Snead, 26, was Toronto’s tenth-round pick back in 2016 and has steadily put together an impressive minor league track record. He reached Triple-A for the first time in 2019 and would’ve gotten another look there in 2020 were it not for the minor league season being shut down. He’s made the most of his second go-around there in 2021, however, pitching to a 2.01 ERA and 2.28 FIP with a huge 35.5 percent strikeout rate, a 9.9 percent walk rate and a 57.4 percent ground-ball rate in 31 1/3 frames.
Outside of one lone start earlier this year, when he worked two innings (presumably as an opener), Snead’s entire career has been spent working in relief. He’s a pure bullpen addition for the Jays — one who’s never had an ERA north of 3.88 at any level to this point in his career.
Barnes pitched nine innings for the Jays after coming over from the Mets and whiffed 30 percent of the 43 batters he faced, but he also walked six and hit another (16.3 percent). Now 31 years old, Barnes looked at one point like he might be a long-term piece in the Brewers’ bullpen. From 2016-18, he racked up 147 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with solid strikeout numbers, but he hasn’t been able to recreate that production. From 2019-21, Barnes has 78 1/3 big league innings split among five different teams, but he’s pitched to just a 6.55 ERA.
Barnes keeps getting chances with other clubs, likely owing to a combination of his fastball velocity, spin, chase rate and a strong minor league track record. There’s clearly some tantalizing aspects of his repertoire — you don’t see five teams take a chance on a 40-man roster spot for a player if there isn’t — but he hasn’t found consistency over the past few years. The Blue Jays will now have until Friday to trade Barnes, otherwise they’ll have to place him on outright waivers or release him.
Pirates Trade Clay Holmes To Yankees
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-handed reliever Clay Holmes from the Pirates in exchange for minor league infielders Diego Castillo and Hoy Jun Park. Catcher Rob Brantly, who’d been on the roster as a Covid-related replacement player, has been returned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to open a roster spot. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported about a minute before the announcement that Holmes was being traded to the Yankees for a pair of minor leaguers (via Twitter).
Holmes, 28, has spent the season in the Pittsburgh bullpen and pitched to a 4.93 ERA, a 23.3 percent strikeout rate, a 13.2 percent walk rate and an enormous 72.8 percent ground-ball rate. To offer a bit more context on that percentage, Holmes has pitched 42 innings this season and surrendered just 16 fly-balls (three of which were pop-ups) and 15 line drives. He’s induced 83 grounders.
Control has been an obvious issue for Holmes, who has always hit four batters and thrown five wild pitches, but he’s only allowed 10 home runs in 119 2/3 career innings (0.75 HR/9). He’s also among the game’s best at limiting premium contact so far in 2021 (86th percentile average exit velocity; 91st percentile barrel rate).
Holmes has yet to reach arbitration but will be arb-eligible for the first time this winter. He’s making scarcely more than the league minimum and can be controlled all the way through the 2024 season if he ultimately sticks in the bullpen. He’ll have to prove his mettle with the Yankees at the Major League level, however, as he’s out of minor league options and cannot be sent down without first being exposed to waivers.
For much of his minor league career, Holmes worked as a starting pitcher. He’s made just four starts in the Majors, however, against 87 bullpen appearances. Because he can’t be sent down, it’s unlikely that the Yankees would try to stretch him out at the MLB level. He’ll head into the bullpen for now, where he can give them some length. Holmes has worked several outings of one-plus or two innings at a time and topped 30 pitches in an appearance on a few occasions.
Ground-ball rate looks to be something the Yankees have zeroed in on in recent years, at least with regard to their bullpen. Zack Britton is one of the most prolific ground-ball pitchers in history, and the current Yankee bullpen sports five more pitchers who’ve tossed at least 10 innings of relief this year with a grounder rate of 50 percent or better: Albert Abreu, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Mike King and Wandy Peralta. At a time when the league is working to curb the use of foreign substances that increase the spin rate on four-seam fastballs and sliders, it’s perhaps not coincidental that the Yankees are seeking out another extreme ground-ball pitcher who relies on a low-spin sinker.
Yankees fans may be surprised to see Park included in this deal after he’s posted a .327/.475/.567 slash with 10 homers, nine doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases in 223 Triple-A plate appearances so far. The 25-year-old was recently called to the big league roster for the first time but only got one appearance before being sent back out.
Notably, however, the Yankees outrighted Park to Triple-A, however, indicating that he went unclaimed on outright waivers at the time of the move. The Pirates (or another club) could’ve had Park for free at that point, were they willing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to him. The 29 other clubs passed. The Bucs will now pick up his rights (without having to dedicate a 40-man spot) and hope he can continue to build on that breakout showing he’s enjoyed so far in Triple-A this year. FanGraphs’ Eric Lonenhagen ranked Park 31st among Yankees farmhands prior to this deal, noting that his ability to play a viable shortstop an control the strike zone make him a “high-probability utility infield piece.”
Castillo, 23, had a history as a light-hitting middle infielder with premium contact rates before his production exploded in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting this year. He’s hitting .277/.345/.504 (127 wRC+) with 11 home runs, 18 doubles and eight steals in 249 plate appearances on the year. Castillo has walked at a career-best 8.4 percent against a 13.4 percent strikeout rate. He’s another shortstop-capable infield prospect to add to the middle levels of the Pirates’ system — one whom Longenhagen ranked 21st in the Yankees’ system at the time of the swap.
Indians Claim Alex Young, Transfer Aaron Civale To 60-Day IL
The Indians on Monday claimed lefty Alex Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks and opened a spot on the 40-man roster by transferring right-hander Aaron Civale from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list, according to a club announcement. Young was optioned to Triple-A Columbus.
Young, 27, was designated for assignment in Arizona last week after struggling over the past two seasons. The former second-round pick (No. 43 overall) had a solid rookie season back in 2019 when he tossed 83 1/3 innings of 3.56 ERA ball over the life of 17 appearances (15 starts). Young’s 20.3 percent strikeout rate that season wasn’t especially impressive, but he had strong control (7.7 percent walk rate), kept the ball on the ground at an above-average 48.1 percent clip and was generally stingy when it came to allowing hard contact. It was a generally promising debut for a 25-year-old with a strong draft pedigree.
Things haven’t panned out as hoped since that time. Young has pitched 88 innings since that time, mostly out of the bullpen (36 relief appearances, nine starts). His strikeout rate and walk rate have each gone in the wrong direction, but only by about one percent. However, Young has begun yielding hard contact in droves while surrendering more fly balls; as one might expect, he’s been immensely homer-prone since those trends began. Over his past 88 frames, Young has served up 22 home runs en route to a 5.83 ERA.
While Young’s time with the D-backs didn’t go as the organization (or the player himself) hoped, he’ll get a fresh start with a new club that has a reputation for pitching development. Young can be optioned both in 2022 and 2023, so he gives Cleveland a potential depth arm for the foreseeable future — or a potential piece to the big league pitching staff if he can indeed right the ship following his change in environs.
The move to shift Civale from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day now means that he won’t return until at least late August. We’re just over one month past Civale’s initial placement on the 10-day injured list due to a finger sprain. He was initially projected to miss four to five weeks, so the fact that he’s now shelved for a minimum of two months suggests that his rehab from that injury has not been as swift as initially expected.
With Civale and reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber on the shelf, the Indians have been relying on Zach Plesac, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, J.C. Mejia, Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges to start. Despite the team’s aforementioned knack for churning out quality young pitchers, this particular group has struggled for the most part. Plesac only just returned from a broken thumb and hasn’t been as sharp as usual. Quantrill has a solid enough 3.84 ERA on the season, but he has a 5.11 ERA as a starter and a 1.88 mark as a reliever. Young could give Cleveland another option to add to that carousel, depending on how he’s used.
Eloy Jimenez Activated From Injured List
The White Sox have officially activated outfielder Eloy Jimenez from the 60-day injured list, according to a team announcement. Infielder Jake Burger was optioned to Triple-A to open up room on the roster.
Jimenez required surgery after suffering a ruptured left pectoral tendon near the end of Spring Training, and he will now return at the shorter end of his initial four-to-five month recovery timetable. He began a minor league rehab assignment earlier this month and has already banked 12 games in the minors to make up for all the lost time. Luis Robert also began a rehab assignment this week, after Robert went on the injured list in May with a hip flexor strain.
Chicago has built a commanding lead in the AL Central even without Jimenez and mostly without Robert, as the White Sox have thrived due to excellent starting pitching and a lineup that is still one of the best in baseball. A mix of somewhat unheralded veterans and youngsters have filled in admirably for Jimenez, Robert, and other injured White Sox like Nick Madrigal and (more recently) Yasmani Grandal. Rookie Andrew Vaughn has become a fixture in left field, and La Russa said that Vaughn will remain in the lineup as either a left fielder or DH, possibly splitting time at the two positions with Jimenez.
Over his first two MLB seasons, the 24-year-old Jimenez did nothing but mash, hitting .276/.321/.527 with 45 home runs over 730 plate appearances. Jimenez finished fourth in AL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2019 and he won a Silver Slugger last year as he helped lead the White Sox into the postseason. With the AL Central title looking like a distinct possibility for 2021, Chicago’s chances of taking another step forward in the playoffs will look a lot better with Jimenez, Robert, and (eventually) Grandal all back in the mix, besides what other acquisitions might be in the works at the trade deadline.
Athletics Interested In Richard Rodriguez
The A’s are among the teams to show interest in Pirates closer Richard Rodriguez, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Rodriguez was previously linked to the Blue Jays. Surely, other teams have checked in as well. The bullpen is a deadline priority for Oakland, according to Morosi.
Since the beginning of June, five contenders sport bullpens with an ERA north of 4.50: the Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Phillies, and Mets. The Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, A’s, and Mariners each have at least nine blown saves during that time. There are 14 clubs with at least a 10% chance at the playoffs at present, and even those with good bullpens will likely look to supplement at the deadline.
Rodriguez stands a good chance of being traded, with the Pirates still in a prospect-accumulation phase – as evidenced by yesterday’s Adam Frazier trade. The 31-year-old Rodriguez, who’s under team control through 2023, currently owns a 2.82 ERA, 22.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, and 29.2% groundball rate. The average MLB reliever currently sits at 24.5%, 10.0%, and 43.5% in those areas. So Rodriguez’s only standout ability this year has been avoiding walks, and with so few groundballs he may soon return to his homer-prone ways. Nor does Rodriguez throw particularly hard for a reliever in 2021, averaging 93.2 miles per hour on his fastball. The magic is already wearing off — Rodriguez’s ERA stood at 0.45 on May 25th, but since then in 18 games he’s managed a 5.40 ERA.
Still, not every team is willing to shop in the Craig Kimbrel aisle, and Rodriguez remains a useful reliever earning just $1.7MM on the season. The A’s already tried going big on their bullpen, committing $11MM to Trevor Rosenthal in February only to see him miss the entire season with a torn labrum in his hip.
This month, the A’s have been relying on a quintet of relievers in important situations: Lou Trivino, Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Sergio Romo, and Yusmeiro Petit. The leaders of the group have been particularly plagued by the free pass, with Trivino and Diekman each hovering in the 18% range for walk rate this month. So Rodriguez could be an antidote of sorts, though the A’s could also turn to Raisel Iglesias, Taylor Rogers, Richard Bleier, Michael Fulmer, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson for potentially available relievers with low walk rates.
Latest On Jose Berrios
The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.
Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player. He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%. Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers. Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.” Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.
In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.” But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.