White Sox Acquire Deivy Grullon
The White Sox have acquired catcher Deivy Grullon from the Rays in exchange for cash considerations, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link).
With Yasmani Grandal still recovering from knee surgery, it isn’t surprising that the White Sox are looking to add to their catching depth. Zack Collins has been starting while Grandal is sidelined, with Seby Zavala as the backup and Yermin Mercedes (who has caught in a couple of games but is primarily a DH) is at Triple-A trying to get his swing on track. Grullon adds another backstop with at least some MLB experience to the mix.
It represents an opportunity for Grullon to perhaps finally get another crack at the big leagues after a number of different uniform changes over the last 10 months. Originally with the Phillies last September, Grullon has been claimed off waivers five times by four different teams — the Red Sox, Reds, Rays, Mets, and then the Rays again back in May.
Grullon appeared in one game with Boston in 2020, after debuting with four appearances for Philadelphia during the 2019 season. A veteran of eight minor league seasons, the 25-year-old Grullon didn’t show much at the plate until 2018, when he hit 21 homers over 353 plate appearances for the Phillies’ Double-A affiliate. He has had a lot of success at the Triple-A level, hitting .265/.340/.488 with 29 homers in 574 Triple-A plate appearances.
Astros Release Hector Velazquez
The Astros have released right-hander Hector Velazquez, as per the official transactions page for Triple-A West. According to multiple reports out of Mexico, Velazquez will now pitch for Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, and he will also be a part of Mexico’s national baseball team roster for the Olympics.
Velazquez posted a 3.90 ERA over 166 innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, chipping in as both a long reliever and occasional spot starter (or opener) over his 89 games with the team. After struggling in 2019, however, Velazquez was designated for assignment during Spring Training 2020 and then claimed by the Orioles, before being traded to Houston in July 2020.
Despite these changes of scenery, Velazquez still hasn’t pitched in a big league game since 2019. The righty had a 1.46 ERA and a 21.8% strikeout rate over 24 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, yet even though the Astros have dealt with a number of pitching injuries this season, it seemed as though Velasquez simply wasn’t in the team’s plans.
He’ll now return to his old stomping grounds, as Velazquez previously pitched in the Mexican League from 2010-2016. The last of those seasons was also with Monclova, with Velazquez posting an impressive 2.47 ERA over 22 starts and 131 1/3 innings. The Red Sox purchased his contract following that strong season.
Yankees To Place Hoy Jun Park On Taxi Squad
The Yankees have placed infielder Hoy Jun Park on the team’s taxi squad, according to The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler (via Twitter). Reporter Daniel Kim (Twitter link) said earlier today that Park was being called up to the Yankees, and such a move could quite possibly still be imminent, given that infielder Gio Urshela is reportedly in COVID-19 protocol. Park is not on New York’s 40-man roster, though the team has roster space available and won’t need to make a corresponding move if/when Park’s contract is officially selected.
Though MLB Pipeline doesn’t rank Park among the Yankees’ top 30 prospects, the Seoul native has been crushing Triple-A pitching this season, batting .325/.475/.541 with eight home runs over 206 plate appearances. This is a marked increase from Park’s numbers in five previous minor league seasons, as he offered some good on-base skills but little in the way of power. Even with this year’s Triple-A dominance factored in, Park has a pretty modest .254/.366/.369 slash line over 2411 career PA in New York’s farm system.
Still, there’s no real risk for the Yankees in riding the hot hand, especially since the club may need some roster reinforcements in short order. Kim doesn’t know if Park’s call-up is specifically related to the COVID situation, as Park’s Triple-A numbers were already making a strong case for a promotion.
An international signing back in July 2014, Park offers some added value to the Yankees beyond his bat. Park has 116 stolen bases (from 152 chances) in the the minors, and he has displayed some defensive versatility — mostly a second baseman and shortstop during his six pro seasons, Park has also received a handful of games as a third baseman, left fielder, and center fielder. This could indicate an opportunity for Park to supplant either Rougned Odor or Tyler Wade for backup infield duty, if he indeed gets a look on the Major League roster.
Chris Sale To Begin Rehab Assignment; Red Sox To Recall Tanner Houck
3:25PM: Sale threw three innings of work rather than his scheduled two in his first rehab outing today, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports. The left-hander allowed three singles in his three shutout frames, and threw his fastball in the 94-95mph range, reaching as high as 97mph. As for Houck, manager Alex Cora told Speier and other reporters that Houck will probably start against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, and be used in the bullpen for Boston’s current series against the Yankees.
11:37AM: Chris Sale is going to begin a rehab assignment today, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. Additionally, the Red Sox are planning on recalling Tanner Houck today, according to Dan Roche of WBZ.
As noted by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, this would be Sale’s first game since August 13th, 2019. Shortly after that, he was shut down with elbow inflammation but was not recommended for Tommy John surgery. Sale tried to come back for the 2020 season but eventually did require Tommy John and underwent the procedure in March of 2020, missing the entirety of that season.
Without Sale, the Red Sox floundered and wound up last in the AL East, finishing the shortened season with a record of 24-36. However, 2021 has been a complete reversal so far, as the club finds itself atop the division with a record of 55-36. Despite their strong placement in the standings, the rotation has not been a strong suit for them. The starters as a whole have produced an ERA of 4.47, 21st-best in the majors, although advanced metrics are a bit more charitable, with a FIP of 3.86, xFIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.20. Concerns over the rotation have also become heightened lately. Garrett Richards has put up an ERA of 6.45 and Eduardo Rodriguez one of 5.35 since the start of June. Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta have not been much better, at 4.76 and 4.85 during that same timeframe, respectively. Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent but always comes with injury concerns. He’s he hasn’t surpassed 125 innings in a season since 2015 and has already tallied 103 1/3 this year.
Sale has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during his career and, if healthy, he would be a gamechanger for any rotation. From 2012 to 2019, Sale hurled 1535 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.05, a strikeout rate of 30.8% and walk rate of 5.5%, which produced 42.8 fWAR and helped the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series in the process.
As the trade deadline approaches, the health and performance of Sale could impact the urgency with which Boston pursues rotation upgrades. The club has stayed under the luxury tax line so far, but just barely. (According to Roster Resource, their luxury tax hit is $208MM, just below the first threshold of $210MM.) That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, if they insist on limboing under that line. But a healthy Sale would be a bigger upgrade than any trade acquisition they could hope to land in a trade.
In the meantime, the pitching staff is hoping for a boost from Houck as they begin an important series against the Yankees. Houck has put up a 3.07 ERA with 19 Ks and 3 BBs in 14 2/3 innings in Triple-A since returning from a flexor tendon strain.
Mariners To Recall Jarred Kelenic
2:15pm: Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto confirmed in an appearance on 710 ESPN this morning that Kelenic will open the second half back with the big league club (link via 710’s Brandon Gustafson).
“We sent him back, he had a plan to work on,” said Dipoto. “Some of it was how to approach the game and some of it was more skills development-based, and he did everything we asked him to do. … We think it’s the right time to give it another shot. He’s just too talented to allow him to not gain this exposure and these at-bats at the big league level.”
Presumably, the Mariners will make a formal announcement and corresponding roster move tomorrow.
10:03am: The Mariners are recalling outfielder Jarred Kelenic for the start of the second half, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.
After much controversy earlier this year about service time manipulation and the resignation of Mariners President Kevin Mather, the star prospect was initially promoted in May. However, he struggled in his first 23 games to a line of .096/.185/.193, producing a measly wRC+ of 11. This slump caused the Mariners to option the rookie back to Triple-A Tacoma in June. But since that time, Kelenic has fared much better against Triple-A pitching, with a line of .306/.386/.622, for a wRC+ of 135. One very encouraging sign is Kelenic’s strikeout rate. After striking out in 28.3% of his plate appearances at the big league level, he has cut that essentially in half, to 14.3% since his demotion.
If Kelenic can carry that offensive production to the big league level, it would be a tremendous help to a Mariners team that finds itself in playoff contention, seven games behind the Astros in the AL West and 3.5 behind Oakland for the second wild card spot. The club has a record of 48-43, despite a run differential of -50, which is largely due to only scoring 4.08 runs per game, a rate which ranks 26th out of the 30 MLB clubs.
Kelenic’s initial delay in getting promoted had already prevented him from reaching free agency until after the 2027 season. But this second stint almost certainly prevents him from acquiring Super Two status and reaching arbitration after the 2023 season, which will suppress his earning power during his arbitration years.
With Mitch Haniger and Jake Fraley playing well, Kelenic could potentially take at-bats away from Shed Long Jr., who has limped to a subpar .188/.233/.400 line and wRC+ of 73 so far this year. If Kelenic can hit enough to stay in the mix, Seattle could be facing an outfield logjam in the future. Kyle Lewis tore his meniscus in June but was was playing well before then. And there is also the fast-approaching star prospect Julio Rodriguez, who was recently promoted to Double-A. Haniger is only controlled through 2022 and has often been mentioned as a potential trade chip for the Mariners, as they have been rebuilding in recent years. But that could change if the team continues playing well and maintains contender status.
Yankees Select Trey Amburgey, Activate Zack Britton
The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of minor league outfielder Trey Amburgey to the Major League roster and reinstated lefty Zack Britton from the 10-day injured list. In a pair of corresponding roster moves, both Nestor Cortes Jr. and Wandy Peralta were placed on the Covid-19-related injured list. The team has not provided further updates on their status. Players on the Covid list do not count against a team’s 40-man roster, so no further corresponding move was necessary to place Amburgey on the 40-man.
Amburgey, 26, was the team’s 13th-round pick back in 2015. He’s never been considered one of the organization’s top prospects and posted mostly average results while rising through the minor league ranks. However, his 2019 campaign in Triple-A was a bit above the league average, and his second go-around at that level has been enormously productive.
Through 161 plate appearances so far in 2021, Amburgey has tattooed Triple-A pitching at a .312/.379/.582 clip. He’s connected on seven home runs, 15 doubles and a triple while walking at a healthy 9.9 percent clip and fanning in 24.2 percent his plate appearances.
Amburgey has played the outfield corners exclusively so far in 2021, but he does have 753 innings of center-field work under his belt — including 122 innings there back in Triple-A during the 2019 season. That makes him an option to work into the mix at multiple spots, as the Yankees have received generally poor collective output from both left field (.232/.297/.363, 83 wRC+) and center field (.182/.289/.312, 71 wRC+) so far in 2021. Right fielder Aaron Judge has been characteristically excellent, both with the glove and the bat, but the outfield group as a whole has been a key factor in the Yankees’ underwhelming 2021 campaign.
The 33-year-old Britton, meanwhile, will return from his second IL stint of the season — the second a much shorter one than the first. Britton was out from Opening Day through June 12 due to arthroscopic surgery that removed bone chips from his left elbow. He tossed just 4 1/3 innings upon his activation before going down with a hamstring strain that sidelined him another three weeks.
Britton’s return will come at a time when the Yankees’ other high-priced bullpen lefty, Aroldis Chapman, has been melting down at the most alarming rate of his career. Chapman carried a near-immaculate 0.39 ERA through early June before imploding in a four-run loss to the Twins at Target Field in which he failed to retire any batters. He’s now allowed runs in five of his past ten outings, including three of his past four, and pitched to a disastrous 18.90 ERA over those ten outings. Since that June 10 meltdown, Chapman has yielded 14 earned runs on 15 hits and 11 walks in just 6 2/3 frames. Four of those hits have left the yard, and he’s also hit a batter. He’s faced 46 batters and allowed 27 of them to reach.
Given those struggles, it wouldn’t at all be a surprise to see a returning Britton and the steadier Chad Green supplant Chapman in high-leverage and/or save situations. (Although Green himself just imploded for four runs in his final first-half outing.) Britton, of course, has more closing experience than just about any “setup” man around the game, having racked up 153 saves in his career — including an AL-best 47 back in 2016 with the Orioles.
The Yankees are turning to Amburgey and Britton at a pivotal time for the club. They’ll face the division-leading Red Sox in eight of their next ten games, with the only reprieve coming via a two-game set against the Phillies.
The Yankees’ season in many ways hangs in the balance; they’re already eight games behind Boston in the AL East and four and a half games back in the AL Wild Card chase. A strong showing in these eight games could rally the club and push the front office into buy mode with the July 30 trade deadline looming, but if the Sox are able to topple the Yankees in the majority of these eight games, it could serve as a proverbial nail in the coffin of the 2021 Yankees, who’d have some interesting veterans to peddle in advance of the deadline.
Carlos Carrasco To Begin Rehab Assignment
New York Mets’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco will begin a rehab assignment tonight, according to the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets’ High-A affiliate.
The return of a healthy Carrasco would be a huge boon to a Mets team that is gearing up for a pennant race over the season’s final months. They currently sit atop the NL East, but have both Philadelphia and Atlanta within 3.5 and 4 games, respectively. The rotation, despite an excellent front three in Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, has taken some hits with the losses of David Peterson,Jordan Yamamoto, Thomas Szapucki and Joey Lucchesi to injuries, the latter two being done for the year. As a clear contender, the Mets will surely be looking into making additions at the deadline and were recently connected to Cole Hamels. The status of Carrasco could have an impact on how aggressively the Mets pursue starting pitching.
Acquired in the offseason blockbuster that also brought over Francisco Lindor, the Mets have not yet seen Carrasco take the mound this season. The righty tore his hamstring during Spring Training and has been out since. Carrasco has been through a lot in recent years, having battled leukemia, returning healthy, being traded and then the aforementioned hamstring injury. But when on the mound, he has been a very effective starter. With Cleveland from 2014 to 2020, “Cookie” threw 1004 innings with an ERA of 3.41, K% of 28.1 and a BB% of 5.9%, and accumulated 23.4 fWAR in that span.
The Mets will surely be hoping to have that level of production back in the mix, both for this year’s stretch run and the future, as Carrasco is under contract for 2022 at $12MM, with a $14MM vesting/club option for 2023.
Red Sox Promote Jarren Duran
The Red Sox are promoting top outfield prospect Jarren Duran to make his major league debut tomorrow night against the Yankees, reports Joe McDonald of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette (Twitter link). Boston’s 40-man roster is full, so another move is required to accommodate the formal selection of his contract.
Duran is one of the game’s more promising young talents. While he fell to the seventh round of the 2018 draft coming out Long Beach State, he immediately improved his stock upon entering pro ball. The speedster posted incredible numbers across two levels of A-ball over his first year-plus in the minors before hitting a bit of a bump in the road upon a 2019 promotion to Double-A. He spent all of 2020 at the alternate training site, where reports suggested he’d revamped his swing path to incorporate more loft in an attempt to hit for power.
Evaluators took note of Duran’s changed profile, but last year’s cancelation of the minor league season still left some question whether he’d be able to translate his new mechanics into results. He’s done all he can to answer those doubts this season, hitting a whopping .270/.365/.561 across 219 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester. Duran has popped fifteen home runs over the year’s first half after hitting a grand total of seven round-trippers over his 880 trips to the plate between 2018-19. A livelier Triple-A baseball could account for some of that production, but there’s little question Duran’s adjustments have had a sizable impact upon his newfound power.
The improved performance has also raised Duran’s stock in the public prospect rankings sphere. Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs now slot the left-handed hitting outfielder as the game’s #55 overall prospect. (Entering the season, he wasn’t among FanGraphs’ top 133 farmhands, although he did slot seventh in the site’s rankings of Red Sox minor leaguers).
Importantly, Duran’s uptick in power hasn’t come with much accompanying swing-and-miss. His 23.7% strikeout rate this season is right in line with his 2019 mark in Double-A. That’s a bit higher than his low minors strikeout percentages but not glaringly so, and there’s little question the improved batted ball authority has been worth any small dip in contact rate.
Now that he’s in the big leagues, Duran looks likely to take over center field on a regular basis. Boston has gotten very little out of the position this year, with a cumulative .236/.300/.392 mark from their group of Kiké Hernández, Alex Verdugo, Danny Santana and Hunter Renfroe. With Duran up, the Sox can rely on Verdugo and Renfroe in the corners on most days while keeping J.D. Martinez at designated hitter. That’ll push Hernández back into the utility role for which he’s best suited. Santana’s currently on the injured list, with Marwin González expected to land on the shelf as well. One of that underperforming duo could find themselves squeezed off the roster upon their return from the IL.
The Red Sox hold a 1.5 game lead over the Rays in the American League East, so Duran’s being thrust right into the thick of a pennant race. Between his combination of Triple-A production and the Sox mediocre center field situation, it had become increasingly apparent Boston should at least give Duran an opportunity to stake a claim to the job. He’ll get that chance beginning tomorrow against their archivals, over whom they have an eight-game advantage in the standings.
Duran won’t earn a full year of major league service in 2021, nor is he expected to accrue enough service time to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player. If he remains in the majors from here on out, he’ll be controllable through 2027 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after the 2024 campaign.
MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
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Yankees 24% (4,413)
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Angels 12% (2,177)
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Mariners 8% (1,571)
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Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Reds 56% (11,382)
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Phillies 20% (4,066)
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Braves 18% (3,710)
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Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)
A Breakout Starter In His Platform Season
Carlos Rodón was selected third overall in the 2014 draft and was an immediate top prospect upon entering pro ball. He flew to the big leagues, making his MLB debut ten months after his draft date. Rodón was immediately a productive starter, pitching to a 3.75 ERA/4.20 SIERA across 139 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old. It would’ve been easy for the White Sox to envision him as another top-of-the-rotation arm in an organization that had already produced Chris Sale and José Quintana.
Rodón didn’t make the jump to that level over the next few seasons though. He was fine from 2016-18, working to a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP, but it seemed he’d plateaued as a league average arm. That’s useful but probably not what many fans had in mind. Then Rodón dealt with a series of injuries that called his future into question. He landed on the 60-day injured list each season from 2018-20, missing time with shoulder and elbow issues. When healthy enough to pitch over the last two seasons, he was unproductive, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball.
Those struggles even led the White Sox to cut ties with Rodón temporarily. Chicago non-tendered him last winter rather than offer him an arbitration salary that would’ve cost a bit more than $4MM. He spent a good portion of the offseason unsigned before returning to the South Side on a $3MM guarantee in late January. Even at such a low price point, the Rodón reunion looked like a questionable decision given his health woes and recent underperformance. In retrospect, it has proven to be a masterstroke by general manager Rick Hahn and the front office.
Rodón earned a spot in the starting rotation to open the year. He’s stayed healthy to this point and been nothing short of incredible. Rodón has worked to a minuscule 2.31 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He has struck out a career-high 36.1% of batters faced, a mark that trails only Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow among the 146 pitchers with 50+ innings pitched. Rodón’s also fourth among that group (behind deGrom, Burnes and Max Scherzer) in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and SIERA (2.82). The big lefty earned a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career in recognition of that strong work.
Unsurprisingly, Rodón’s featuring the best raw stuff of his career. His fastball is averaging 95.9 MPH this season, a marked increase over his 92-94 MPH range in recent years. Rodón actually first experienced a velocity spike during a couple of relief appearances at the end of last season, but it wasn’t clear whether he’d be able to maintain that with a starter’s workload. He has so far, with no indication of slowing down.
He’s also added a bit more life on the heater at the top of the strike zone, and he’s throwing his slider with increased velocity. Both offerings have been plus, but it’s his fastball that has become almost unhittable. Rodón has generated a league-leading 147 whiffs on four-seamers this season, per Statcast. (His 17.1% swinging strike rate on the offering is tied for third among the 68 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fastbals). In 2018 — his most recent season of more than seven starts — batters hit .257 and slugged .422 off Rodón in at-bats ending with a four-seamer. This year, they’re hitting .180 and slugging .275 against the pitch.
It’s only been three months, but Rodón has performed at an ace-caliber level to this point. He famously threw a no-hitter against the Indians in April, and he’s had an additional seven starts in which he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Rodón has struck out eight or more batters in thirteen of his fifteen appearances, and he’s shown no obvious ill effects from the league’s foreign substance crackdown. In all likelihood, 2021 will mark his heaviest workload in five years, so he’ll need to continue to prove he’s capable of performing at a high level as his innings total piles up.
The White Sox are highly likely to win the AL Central, and Rodón has put himself in what appears to be a very strong future playoff rotation also including Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and one of Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel. He’s in line to again reach free agency this winter, where he’ll be one of the youngest and most productive starting pitchers on the market. There’s no question he’ll fare quite a bit better this time around.