Our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list has been published after many hours of discussion and debate. Readers grilled Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams about it for 90 minutes in a live chat today, and you can read the transcript here.
Archives for 2021
John Gant Elects Free Agency
Right-hander John Gant has opted to become a free agent after clearing outright waivers, according to MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (Twitter link). Because Gant has over three years of MLB service time, he had the right to choose free agency rather than accept the outright assignment off the Twins’ 40-man roster.
The outright essentially serves as an early non-tender for the Twins, as Gant was projected to earn $3.7MM in his third and final trip through the arbitration process. While not a huge sum for a useful swingman, the Twins didn’t see a role (at least at that price point) for Gant on their 2022 squad, despite Minnesota’s needs in the rotation and bullpen.
Acquired from the Cardinals as part of the J.A. Happ deadline trade, Gant posted a 5.61 ERA over his 33 2/3 innings in Minnesota, starting seven of his 14 appearances. Compared to his 76 1/3 frames with St. Louis earlier in the season, Gant improved his strikeout and walk rates while with the Twins, but his homer rate and strand rate both shot upward.
The result was a 4.09 ERA over 110 total innings in 2021 and a pretty dismal set of Statcast metrics for the 29-year-old Gant. Walks continued to be a major problem for the righty, and the increase in missed bats he exhibited over 15 innings in 2020 didn’t carry over to more consistent work last season.
It should be noted that the Cardinals used Gant exclusively as a reliever in 2019-20, and the results were impressive. Gant’s control didn’t get much better, though his strikeout numbers improved and his fastball gained some velocity (up to a 95.9mph average) with the more limited usage, as Gant posted a 3.43 ERA over his 81 1/3 relief innings. While other teams might still take advantage of Gant’s durability by using him as a swingman, he might ultimately be best served working out of a bullpen.
Reds Willing To Discuss Luis Castillo In Trade Talks
For the second straight offseason, Luis Castillo is figuring into some chatter on the rumor mill, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the Reds are open to discussing the right-hander in trade talks. This represents a slight change from last year, when Reds GM Nick Krall firmly denied that Castillo was available, even though other clubs inevitably asked about Castillo.
There isn’t any guarantee that Castillo will be dealt, since another team would have to be willing to meet what is sure to be a very high asking price from Cincinnati. However, dealing Castillo would be the clearest sign yet that the Reds are not just cutting payroll, but seemingly stepping back into some sort of a rebuild phase. With the offseason less than a week old, the Reds have already dealt Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers and put Wade Miley on waivers, where he was claimed by the division-rival Cubs.
Those two players weren’t guaranteed to return to Cincinnati anyway in 2022 due to club options (Miley for $10MM, Barnhart for $7.5MM), and yet quickly parting ways with two productive veterans led to some dismay amongst Reds fans. The mood didn’t improve after Krall stated that “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” The Reds have roughly $131.4MM on their books for next season’s payroll, yet at this point, it certainly seems like more cuts are coming. Castillo is relatively inexpensive (projected for a $7.6MM salary in arbitration), entering his age-29 season, and is controlled through the next two seasons, so he is far more of a cornerstone piece than Barnhart or Miley.
The righty has been one of the more solid pitchers in baseball over the last five seasons, with a 3.72 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 53.9% grounder rate, and 14.4 fWAR over 707 1/3 career innings. He was an All-Star in 2019, and has looked like an ace at best and “merely” as a durable front-of-the-rotation type at worst, as Castillo has never spent any time on a Major League injured list.
It is worth noting that 2021 was something of a step back for Castillo, as he got off to a terrible start to the season and had a 7.22 ERA at the end of May. While he righted the ship over the rest of the year, Castillo finished with only a 3.98 ERA, as well as a barely-average 23.9% strikeout rate (after a 29.4 K% in 2019-20) and only a 9.3% walk rate. Castillo has posted subpar walk rates in three of his five years, though while control has been an issue, it hasn’t kept him from otherwise posting strong numbers.
While the Reds could explore attaching Castillo to a larger and possibly undesirable salary on the payroll (i.e. Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas), moving Castillo as a part of a salary dump would seem like something of a waste, considering that trading Castillo alone would net the Reds quite a bit of younger talent. Reporter Sung Min Kim observed that the Twins’ trade of Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays for top-100 prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson could be a comp for a potential Castillo deal, except the Reds would be in a position to ask for even more — a new team would have Castillo for two full seasons, whereas Toronto just acquired Berrios for the 2022 season and the final two-plus months of the 2021 campaign.
It is probably safe to assume that lots of teams have routinely checked in on Castillo’s availability, though the Yankees were one team specifically cited as being involved in some talks last winter. New York turned down the Reds’ demand of Gleyber Torres and more in exchange for Castillo, to present an idea of just how high a price tag Cincinnati rightfully put on Castillo’s services. It figures that the Yankees would be keen to inquire about Castillo again, except this time Torres might not be on the Reds’ radar, considering how Jonathan India now has second base locked down and Torres no longer looks like a viable shortstop.
If a Castillo trade is completed, it stands to reason that it could be the first major domino to fall in a Reds fire sale, if the team is planning to take a big step back from competing. The likes of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and others could all be on the trade block, not to mention the larger-salary players like Suarez or Moustakas. For what it’s worth, Joey Votto has a full no-trade clause and has consistently said that he would use that clause to remain in Cincinnati for the rest of his career.
Twins Hire Jayce Tingler As Bench Coach
The Twins have announced a pair of coaching hires, bringing on former Padres’ manager Jayce Tingler as their new bench coach and officially announcing the previously-reported hiring of David Popkins as hitting coach.
Tingler is coming off a tumultuous season in San Diego, his second campaign as the bench boss for the Padres. Things seemed to be going well after the first year, as 2020 saw the Padres go 37-23 and then qualify for the expanded 2020 playoffs, eventually falling to the rival Dodgers in the NLDS. The subsequent months only heightened enthusiasm for 2021, as the club made various high-profile additions, including Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. The beginning of 2021 seemed to be going according to plan, as they hovered in the divisional race with the Dodgers and Giants through the first few months of the season. However, the second half saw the team undergo a precipitous slide, falling out of the playoff race and even below .500, along with reports that Tingler had lost the respect of the players and control of the clubhouse. Shortly after the season ended, Tingler was fired and eventually replaced by Bob Melvin, whom the Padres lured away from the Athletics.
It had been previously reported that the Padres offered him an opportunity to stay in some capacity, but he will instead head to the Twin Cities for 2022. It was announced in September that the previous bench coach, Bill Evers, would be retiring after the 2021 season, creating the vacancy that Tingler will now be filling.
Reds Outright Alex Blandino
Nov. 8: Blandino is now a free agent, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Nov. 4: The Reds announced Thursday that infielder Alex Blandino went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville. He’s no longer on the 40-man roster. Cincinnati also reinstated infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and righties Tejay Antone and Brandon Bailey from the 60-day injured list. Their 40-man roster is now at 36 players.
Blandino, 28, was Cincinnati’s first-round pick back in 2014 but has yet to produce in 279 trips to the plate as a big leaguer (.226/.339/.291). He missed a sizable chunk of the 2021 campaign with a broken hand, which surely couldn’t have helped his production in Triple-A Louisville, where he batted just .102/.289/.153 in 18 games this season. That said, Blandino did turn in a much heartier .247/.386/.379 slash in 70 Triple-A contests back in 2019.
Senzel, the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2016 and one of the top all-around prospects in the game prior to his debut, has yet to find much consistency in the big leagues. Arthroscopic knee surgery performed back in May didn’t help matters in 2021, as Senzel was limited to just 124 plate appearances and batted only .252/.323/.315 when healthy (72 wRC+). He didn’t play in a big league game after May 17 on account of a left knee injury, and the 26-year-old has just 616 cumulative plate appearances over parts of three MLB seasons.
Bailey missed the entire season recovering from February Tommy John surgery. Since Tommy John rehab processes often around fourteen months, it seems likely he’ll start next season on the IL as well. Antone underwent the same procedure in August. He’s likely to miss all of 2022 recovering.
Quick Hits: Rojas, Kelly, Horowitz
Luis Rojas has been unemployed for over a month now, after the Mets declined to pick up his option and retain him as manager for 2022. But he may have a chance to stay in the Big Apple, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that he was interviewed by the Yankees for one of their base coach jobs and “made a positive impression.”
Rojas had been in the Mets’ organization since 2007, working his way through the ranks of the minor leagues and eventually becoming quality control coach at the big league level in 2019. He was shoved into the manager’s chair after Carlos Beltran was fired in the wake of the Astros’ sign-stealing revelations and lasted two seasons. He hasn’t yet found a new position for 2022, but seems to have interest around the league, as he also interviewed for the Padres’ managerial opening before that was filled by Bob Melvin.
The Yankees are going to have a high degree of turnover in their coaching staff before next season, despite manager Aaron Boone being extended for three more years. First base coach Reggie Willits, third base coach Phil Nevin, hitting coach Marcus Thames and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere have all either stepped down or been let go in recent weeks. If the Yankees end up getting Rojas to put pen to paper, Boone can be supported by a coach with a couple seasons of managerial experience under his belt.
More tidbits from around the league…
- Joe Kelly’s 2021 was arguably his best season since becoming a reliever, but it ended on an ominous note. In the regular season, Kelly logged 44 innings with an ERA of 2.86, strikeout rate of 27.5%, walk rate of 8.2% and groundball rate of 58.9%. But then he left game five of the NLCS with an arm injury that ended his season, and the Dodgers declined his $12MM option for 2022, reportedly because they didn’t expect him to recuperate before spring training. However, it now seems like his outlook isn’t quite so dour, at least according to one medical professional. Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed shoulder surgery on Kelly a year ago, provided an update on the situation to Rob Bradford of WEEI. In regards to a team asking his opinion about the hurler, ElAttrache said, “I would tell the front office and their team doctors that I would be very optimistic that he would be ready for spring training.” If the 33-year-old is indeed healthy, he figures to be one of the most sought-after relievers this offseason, alongside guys like Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen and Kendall Graveman, though he’ll likely have to hold a showcase at some point in the new year to prove his effectiveness and assuage the concerns of interested teams.
- Jack Harris of the L.A. Times reports that Angels’ director of pro scouting Nate Horowitz has left the team. In recent weeks, the club has been shuffling a lot of chairs around behind the scenes, as they also parted ways with scouting director Matt Swanson and replaced him by bringing in Tim McIlvaine from the Brewers. The persistent narrative around the Angels in recent years has been their inability to build a well-rounded team to support their marquee players such as Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. Despite the presence of Trout, arguably the best player of his generation, the Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. There have been some positive signs recently, as younger players like Jared Walsh, Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Patrick Sandoval have started filling some holes around the veterans. But the shake up in the scouting department suggests the club is still trying to reshape their approach to team building in order to give their stars a chance to shine in the postseason.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT. With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…
- Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Verlander, Astros (link)
This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs. Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.
These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.
Free Agent Notes: Verlander, Schwarber, Heaney
Justin Verlander will hold a showcase for scouts and evaluators tomorrow, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links). This is the first time Verlander will throw in front of evaluators from other teams since his Tommy John surgery in September 2020. Multiple teams are expected to have personnel on hand, if just as a matter of simple due diligence rather than a clear interest in signing Verlander on the free agent market. As WFAN’s Sweeny Murti observes, it probably safe to assume the Yankees will have personnel on hand — Verlander is throwing at a Cressey Sports Performance facility, and Eric Cressey is the Yankees’ director of player health and performance.
It stands to reason that Verlander will probably hold multiple showcases in order to prove that his arm has recovered from the TJ procedure, and that he’ll be ready to roll when Spring Training camps open. The timing of a second showcase could be particularly important, however, since Verlander has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Astros today. If Verlander throws well and gets some good buzz coming out of Monday’s session, it could make him lean against taking the one-year, $18.4MM offer to return to Houston, if he gets an indication that at least one other club is interested in making him a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.
More from the free agent market….
- J.D. Martinez’s decision to pass on his opt-out clause will keep the veteran slugger in Boston for another season, though it doesn’t mean that free agent Kyle Schwarber is necessarily roadblocked from a return to the Red Sox. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) that the Sox have already been in touch with Schwarber and will continue to monitor his market throughout the winter. Martinez’s role as the regular DH and a fill-in outfielder might be the ideal spot for Schwarber, as while Schwarber did okay at first base for someone who had never played the position before, he probably isn’t a viable solution at first over the longer term (plus, the Sox have Bobby Dalbec and prospect Triston Casas ready for more first base time). However, Schwarber hit so well during his two-plus months in Boston that it isn’t surprising that the club will look to get creative in trying to find a fit for him in the lineup. For his part, Schwarber said after the ALCS that he would be interested in a return to the Sox.
- Despite Andrew Heaney’s very rough 2021 season, several teams are eyeing the left-hander as a possible bounce-back candidate. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) lists the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals as some of the teams interested in the free agent hurler. Heaney still had above-average strikeout and walk rates last year, as most of his problems stemmed from an inability to avoid home runs — Heaney allowed a whopping 29 homers over his 129 2/3 innings with the Angels and Yankees.
Rex Brothers Elects Free Agency
Cubs left-hander Rex Brothers elected free agency after he was outrighted off Chicago’s 40-man roster earlier this week, The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro reports (Twitter link). Since Brothers has been outrighted multiple times in his career, he had the right to become a free agent rather than accept the Cubs’ assignment — in fact, Brothers also opted for free agency almost exactly a year ago, after another outright off the Cubs’ 40-man.
Brothers has inked minor league deals with the Cubs in each of the last two offseasons. After tossing only 3 1/3 innings in 2020, he received a much longer look this season, with 53 innings out of Chicago’s bullpen. The first 27 1/3 of those innings were stellar, as the southpaw posted a 2.63 through June 27, but things then started to decline for the veteran. His final 25 2/3 innings resulted in an 8.06 ERA, giving Brothers an overall 5.26 ERA for the season.
Home runs (nine), hard contact, and especially walks were the biggest problems for Brothers, as his 14.8% walk rate was one of the highest of any pitcher in the league. These issues outweighed some very impressive strikeout numbers, as Brothers’ 31.8 K% and whiff rate both fell in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers. While the home runs have been a more recent problem for Brothers, he has long struggled with his control, even dating back to his 2011 rookie season with the Rockies.
Brothers posted some very solid numbers with Colorado from 2011-13, but the team cut ties with him following the 2015 season, dealing him to the Cubs for Brothers’ first stint in Wrigleyville. The Cubs released Brothers that spring, however, and he didn’t play anywhere in 2016 before catching on with the Braves organization for two more seasons.
Brothers turns 34 in December, so time may be running out for the left-hander to show that he can finally harness his control and take full advantage of his ability to miss bats. It seems likely that another team (maybe even the Cubs again) will give Brothers another look on a minor league contract.
Padres Select Adrian Martinez’s Contract
The Padres announced that the contract of right-hander Adrian Martinez has been selected to the club’s 40-man roster. The early move ensures that Martinez won’t be selected in the Rule 5 Draft, as teams have until November 19 to finalize their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 (which takes place in the second week of December).
Martinez’s early career was slowed by a Tommy John surgery, but he returned to action in 2017 and slowly built up innings before his progress was against stalled by the canceled 2020 minor league season. Making his Double-A debut in 2021, Martinez looked excellent in posting a 2.34 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate over 80 2/3 innings in San Antonio. The righty didn’t look as good in 44 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball (5.28 ERA), though most of that damage came in Martinez’s first two starts at the higher level. After those initial two rough outings, Martinez settled down and delivered a 3.47 ERA over his final seven starts.
The breakout campaign got Martinez on the radar of prospect evaluators, as Baseball America ranks him 26th in the Padres’ farm system and MLB Pipeline slots him in the 29th spot on their listing. More importantly, Martinez now looks like a candidate to make his Major League debut sometime in 2022. He’ll get more seasoning at Triple-A to begin the season, and might then emerge as a relief candidate or perhaps as a rotation fill-in or spot starter in the event of an injury to one of San Diego’s regular starters.
