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Justin Bour Signs With Mexico City Red Devils

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First baseman Justin Bour has signed with the Red Devils of Mexico City (Diablos Rojos del México) for the 2022 season, announced the team on December 30th.  After playing in the Majors from 2014-19 with the Marlins, Phillies, and Angels, Bour spent 2020 with the Hanshin Tigers.  He signed a minor league deal in March 2021 to return stateside with the Giants, but he moved to KBO’s LG Twins after 33 Triple-A games.

The 18-team Mexican League was founded in 1925 and became part of Minor League Baseball thirty years later, and was eventually considered a Triple-A league.  The Mexican League’s longtime connection ended in 2021 when MLB re-organized the minors.  Bour joins several players with MLB experience on the Diablos Rojos’ roster, including Arquimedes Caminero, Jumbo Diaz, Roberto Osuna, JC Ramirez, Yangervis Solarte, and Jorge Cantu.  Diablos manager Jorge del Valle noted that Bour brings similar power to that of Jon Singleton, who recently signed a minor league deal with the Brewers.

Bour, 33, was drafted by the Cubs in the 25th round out of George Mason University back in 2009.  He remains the most successful Major Leaguer from that Virginia college.  Bour joined the Marlins in the 2013 Rule 5 draft.  He became the Marlins’ primary first baseman from 2015-18, finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting with a 23-homer debut in ’15.  Bour popped 83 home runs for the Marlins in that span and ranks 12th in franchise history.  A left-handed hitter, Bour generally needed to be platooned against southpaws but still owns a 123 wRC+ against righties in his 559-game MLB career.

Max Scherzer Discusses Lockout

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As the MLB lockout continues into 2022, little indication has been given that the current status quo is set to expire any time soon. This morning’s news, that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have yet to schedule their next bargaining session, all but affirms that.

Despite the ongoing transaction freeze and tight-lipped nature of CBA talks, players haven’t avoided headlines altogether. Recently, a trio of All-Star MLBPA members— Zack Britton, Marcus Semien, and Lucas Giolito— spoke about the current state of the lockout. Today, another high profile MLBPA member joined the fray to discuss the seeming malaise surrounding CBA negotiations: Max Scherzer.

Speaking with Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the perennial Cy Young contender hit on a number of familiar points. First among them, Scherzer reiterated the union’s stated goal to increase competitive integrity in the game, that is, to increase incentive for all 30 teams to win games instead of opting for the well documented tank method. “We feel as players that too many teams have gone into a season without any intent to win during this past CBA. Even though that can be a strategy to win in future years, we’ve seen both small-market and large-market clubs embrace tanking, and that cannot be the optimal strategy for the owners.”

Concerns about service-time manipulation are something Scherzer and the union are also looking to address in the next CBA. The right-handed pitcher name-checks the Kris Bryant grievance as one example, though whispers of front offices leveraging the current system to maximize player control have been long presumed.

Beyond the belief that certain players are being held in the minors artificially long, Scherzer also posits that “middle-class free agents” are being slighted under the current system as well. The ability of teams to minimize a player’s early career earnings and open-market earnings doesn’t sit right with Scherzer, who believes this approach is in direct contrast to what an earlier union deal, dubbed “the grand bargain“, sought to accomplish. “The grand bargain is that you make less money early in your career so that you can make more money later in your career. Teams have shown that they’re not willing to pay for players’ past production for a whole slew of reasons. And if that’s the case, that’s the case. But if we’re going to look at players that way, then we need to then allocate more money to players earlier in their career.”

Scherzer further reiterates that the union is not interested in any system that ties player compensation directly to league revenues, citing that doing so would implement a cap system that’s at odds with the sport’s free market economics. Of course, players and fans have noticed that while a cap system may not currently exist, teams have increasingly behaved like the luxury tax threshold acts as one.

Treating the current luxury tax threshold as a hard cap naturally curtails player spending, even if a small handful of players sign record-setting contracts every offseason. As the beneficiary of one such contract,  Scherzer pushes back on the notion that the current system works fine, because despite his compensation, a number of players will still be left to scramble for jobs with limited time and opportunity after the lockout.

Ultimately, Scherzer concludes that a number of player concerns need to be remedied in the next CBA for the game to continue with integrity. Because the current system affects every player adversely in one way or another, and the players are “galvanized” by this perception, he asserts that the union is as strong as it’s ever been. When asked if the current stare-down between league and union could lead to a delayed season, Scherzer was hopeful, but non-committal:

“It’s too hard to even speculate what the future looks like. You’re just in limbo right now. You’re training ready to be good to go for when spring training starts. If that doesn’t happen, then you make different decisions based on that. But until that happens, you have to have the mentality that we’re going to be playing on time. Any other kind of speculation is just hearsay.”

Under-The-Radar Star Can Shape Phillies Offseason

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In 2021 an NL East pitcher threw close to 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and received Cy Young votes for his pitching prowess. Elsewhere in the division, a pitcher threw over 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and remains relatively obscure. That first pitcher was Mets superstar Jacob deGrom. The second pitcher was lefty Ranger Suárez, and he may be the key to the Phillies’ offseason.

Coming into the season, Suárez was even more obscure than he is coming out of it. An international signing out of Venezuela in 2012, the left-handed Suárez climbed the ranks of the Phillies farm system to little fanfare. After reaching the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018, and in two ensuing stints in 2019 and an illness-interrupted 2020, Suárez did little to distinguish himself from the pack. Through 67 innings across those first three looks, the Phillies pitcher sported a 4.66 ERA that ERA estimators largely validated. The only standout skill in that modest sample was an ability to generate groundballs, as opposing hitters smacked pitches into the dirt 52.7% of the time when facing the young Philly.

In May of this past season, Suarez was called up from Triple-A Lehigh for what is likely the final time in his career, as he joined the bullpen to back up a top-heavy Philadelphia rotation. Pitching in mostly multi-inning appearances, Suarez didn’t yield an earned run until his twelfth appearance of the season. This roll continued, even if Suarez proved fallible and put up a 2.25 ERA in the next 20 innings until the trade deadline. This dominant run through July convinced the Phillies to promote the lefty into their rotation, replacing Spencer Howard, the starter Suarez regularly mopped up innings for, after a trade with the Texas Rangers.

As a starter, Suarez rode his hot streak to the end of the season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA in 65 plus innings, and securing Philadelphia’s 82nd win of the season. All told, the breakout left-hander pitched to a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. A 2.72 FIP and 3.51 SIERA portend some regression, but above average command and strikeout abilities, plus a whopping 58.2% groundball rate, indicate that there was more than just luck at play in that final ERA. Additionally, Suárez was one of the best in the league at inducing soft contact per Statcast, whose metrics are even more bullish than those FIP or SIERA figures.

It’s rare for a season of this caliber to fly so under the radar come awards season, though Phillies advocates were likely a bit busy banging the Cy Young drum in favor of ace Zack Wheeler. For historical context though, a case could be made that the dual-role pitching Suarez was worthy of some down-ballot attention, if nothing else. After all, previous pure relievers Eric Gagne, Rollie Fingers, and former-Philly closer Steve Bedrosian all won the league’s top pitching award with comparable, and arguably inferior campaigns in the past. Award-winner Bryce Harper, who took home NL MVP honors in 2021, stumped for his teammate to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award that ultimately went to Buster Posey. 

All of that’s to say, for as unheralded as he was, Ranger Suarez was very good in 2021. Per Fangraphs’ RosterResource page, the left-handed pitcher is expected to slot into a rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, while Texas acquisitions Kyle Gibson and Hans Crouse round out the group. Rotation mainstay Zach Eflin, who flashed breakout potential the past two seasons before illness and knee troubles derailed his most recent campaign, should return early next season if he recovers as expected from September knee surgery.

Each member of that pitching squad carries some combination of health risk and questions about what they can reasonably produce in 2022: Wheeler pitched a career-high number of innings in 2021 after a shortened 2020 campaign; Nola sported an uncharacteristically high 4.63 ERA last season; Gibson’s bottom-line numbers nosedived following his trade to Philadelphia; Crouse has 270 professional innings to his name thanks to injuries, only 7 of which have come at the Major League level; Suárez is unlikely to post another ERA close to 1.00; and Eflin will be returning from surgery. 

One could look at these risks and determine that the Phillies need more depth, should anyone in this group fail to shoulder the bulk of a baseball season’s workload. A rosier stance however, is that the Phillies have one of the best rotations they’ve had in some time. Instead of relying on Vince Velasquez and a post-prime Jake Arrieta, or Matt Moore and Chase Anderson as they did this past year to fill a rotation, the Phillies front office may be looking to add that type of player entirely as depth. That is of course, unless President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld see another opportunity for improvement. 

One creative tactic aimed towards improvement may be for the Phillies to shift Suarez back to the bullpen, at least once Eflin returns or more rotation depth is acquired. As surprising as that move would be on the surface, it would allow Suarez to continue in a dual-role that he’s already proved exceptional. Further, it would bolster a bullpen that finished near the back of the pack in most categories and tied for first in blown saves with 34. It would also equip manager Joe Girardi with a shutdown lefty out of the pen, as Suarez was the toughest pitcher for lefties to hit in 2021. This is in contrast to the bullpen’s current top left-hander, José Alvarado, who walked 47 batters in 55 plus innings last season. 

While the Phillies are currently $29MM under the current CBA’s luxury-tax threshold (per RosterResource’s Jason Martinez), it’s unlikely that they’ll devote a sum greater than the $10MM it took to sign right-hander Corey Knebel to further improve the bullpen. More modest bullpen additions aren’t off the table, as free agent lefty Andrew Chafin and neutral-splits right-hander Colin McHugh are speculative fits that can probably be had for a lower annual amount than Knebel. Regardless of target, however, no free agent addition will prove as cost-effective as shifting the pre-arbitration Suárez to the back of the bullpen.

The versatility afforded by Suárez should not stop the Phillies from reinforcing their rotation depth and bullpen, but it does lessen the need to sink major resources into both. This flexibility will allow the Phillies to turn the bulk of their attention to the position player side of things, an area for the team that hasn’t looked this bare in quite a few offseasons. Half of the lineup is set, but vacancies and question marks are abound in the other half, as left field, center field, third base, and shortstop are set to be filled with players short on Major League success or players coming off down 2020 seasons.

Fanatics To Acquire Topps Sports & Entertainment

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In an increasingly-rare piece of transactional news, online retailer Fanatics has reached an agreement to acquire renowned trading card company Topps Sports & Entertainment, per Scott Soshnick and Eben Novy-Williams of Sportico. Topps Sports & Entertainment represents the trading card and digital collectible portion of the greater The Topps Co. enterprise. The deal is worth $500MM, according to Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton of the Wall Street Journal.

News of tonight’s reported deal comes in the wake of last year’s revelation that Major League Baseball and the MLBPA would not be renewing their longstanding agreement with Topps. Instead, both the league and players union pivoted and partnered with Fanatics on a long-term licensing deal, granting the online sports retailer with exclusive trading card licenses.

Though the Fanatics Trading Cards brand has yet to launch a single product, recent valuations for this portion of the Fanatics enterprise have skyrocketed. Thanks in part to renewed trading card interest by hobbyists during the past two years, a recent valuation of Fanatics Trading Cards now stands at $10.4 billion. Both the MLB and MLBA are equity holders in Fanatics’ new trading card venture, creating an ongoing revenue source for both parties.

In a piece by The Wall Street Journal, Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton note that Fanatics’ original August deal with MLB wasn’t set to begin until after the 2025 season. Likewise, licensing deals with the NFL and NBA were also a few years from kicking in, slowing Fanatics’ push into the trading card space. Acquiring the Topps Sports & Entertainment division now, however, will allow Fanatics to accelerate its foray into this portion of the hobby market years ahead of schedule. In addition to immediate distribution rights of baseball cards, Fanatics also picks up Major League Soccer, UEFA, and Formula One licenses in the deal.

Implications of this acquisition will be far-reaching, though it most directly increases Fanatics hold on a growing industry. The Topps Company will now see business operations span only its candy and gift card divisions, barring further activity from the company’s ownership group. Sports leagues across the world are now primed to see increased revenue streams thanks to their newly cut licensing deals and equity stakes with Fanatics.

For baseball and its players union, this news looms against a still-stagnant lockout backdrop. The financial ramifications of this deal are unlikely to have any immediate impact on the state of the lockout, though it appears another party, Fanatics, now has its interests more wholly aligned with the 2022 baseball season being conducted as scheduled.

Cameron Maybin Announces Retirement

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Longtime major league outfielder Cameron Maybin announced his retirement this evening. The 34-year-old appeared in fifteen major league seasons, suiting up with ten different clubs between 2007-21. He spent the bulk of that time — four seasons apiece — with the Padres and Marlins.

“I’ve played this game since I was 4 years old,” Maybin wrote as part of his announcement, the full text of which is available on Twitter. “Three decades later, my love for baseball is only matched by the love I have for the family that’s supported me every step of the way. … Although my journey as a professional baseball player ends here with the announcement of my retirement, my work in this game is just getting started. I’m excited for what lies ahead, including my work with the Players Alliance in our effort to provide access and opportunity for the next generation of Black ballplayers.”

Maybin was a first-round pick back in 2005, selected tenth overall by the Detroit Tigers. At just 19 years old, Maybin made quick work of his minor league competition and drew praise from a number of publications. Baseball America regularly ranked the speedy outfielder among the top ten prospects in the game, doing so from 2007 until he exhausted prospect eligibility in 2009.

Though he made his Major League debut for the Tigers in 2007, a franchise-altering trade sent Maybin, along with a young Andrew Miller and others, to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Irregular playing time but continued minor league dominance made Maybin a target of another trade just a few years later, when the Padres acquired him to be their starting center fielder for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.

San Diego took well to their new center fielder, as Maybin broke out with a 40-steal, 103 OPS+ showing in his first year on the West Coast. That performance, combined with Maybin’s stellar glove up the middle, resulted in a 5-year $25MM extension before the 2012 season. Before the contract’s expiration, Maybin was dealt in yet another high-profile trade. In this deal, new Padres general manager A.J. Preller made his presence felt by acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel in an Opening Day-beating deal with the Braves.

After a year in Atlanta, Maybin bounced around between eight teams, providing clubs with speed and modest offense in the outfield and off the bench. During this stretch, Maybin had a resurgent year when he reunited with the Tigers in 2016, sporting a 118 OPS+ in 94 games. He pushed his offense to new heights in 2019, with a strong .285/.364/.494 (127 OPS+) showing in 82 games for an injury-ravaged Yankees team.

Maybin was set to look for 2022 opportunities as a veteran depth option for clubs. Instead, he’ll eschew a complicated free agent market and retire a career .254/.323/.374 hitter with 187 steals.

MLBTR congratulates Maybin on an excellent career, and wishes him the best of luck with his Players Alliance endeavors and elsewhere.

Tigers Notes: Rotation, Faedo, Bullpen

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The Tigers have made one big rotation splash this winter, signing Eduardo Rodríguez to a five-year, $77MM guarantee. Yet they also non-tendered Matthew Boyd and will be without Spencer Turnbull for most or all of next season due to a July 2021 Tommy John surgery. Boyd, Turnbull and depth options Wily Peralta and José Ureña — each of whom has reached free agency — combined to toss 304 innings out of the rotation last year, thinning the Detroit depth.

With that in mind, Evan Woodbery of MLive writes that the Tigers are likely to pursue another starter coming out of the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the top free agent starters available, with most of the other options (Peralta and Ureña included) projecting as back-end types. As things currently stand, the Tigers look likely to open the season with a starting five of Rodríguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Tyler Alexander.

That’s a rather young group. While it’s full of pedigree, Manning struggled last season. Skubal posted solid strikeout and walk numbers but had the league’s second-highest home run rate (2.11 HR/9) among pitchers with 100+ innings. A veteran depth addition at the back end makes plenty of sense, particularly with prospects Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo among the leading internal depth options.

Neither Wentz nor Faedo has yet made their major league debuts, and both pitchers are coming off fairly recent Tommy John procedures. Wentz underwent the surgery in March 2020 and returned in late May; Faedo went under the knife in January 2021. The 26-year-old’s timetable for a return to the field remains unclear, but he tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press he’s begun to throw off flat ground.

Faedo pitched his way to Double-A in 2019 and tossed 115 1/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates (28.3% and 5.3%, respectively) there that year. A former first-round pick, Faedo’s prospect stock has dipped in recent seasons but he was nevertheless selected onto the Tigers’ 40-man roster over the 2020-21 offseason. Baseball America ranked the former University of Florida star 25th among Detroit farmhands midseason, writing that he projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm.

It’s also possible Faedo and/or Wentz break into the bullpen mix at some point. Tigers’ relievers ranked just 22nd in ERA (4.50) and 28th in strikeout/walk rate differential (11.4 percentage points) last year. Detroit didn’t do anything to address that area of the roster over the first couple months of the offseason, and Woodbery suggests the Tigers could look to add a reliever or two from outside the organization this winter.

Kenley Jansen is the top free agent reliever available, with such arms as Joe Kelly, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin and Collin McHugh among the setup types on the market. Of course, Detroit could look to the trade market, waiver wire or even perhaps the Rule 5 draft as alternative means of adding to the bullpen. Amir Garrett, Cole Sulser, Chris Stratton and Lou Trivino are among the late-game options who might be attainable via trade once the transactions freeze concludes.

Looking At The Remaining Free Agent Starters Beyond Rodon/Kershaw

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The free agent starting pitching market moved incredibly quickly in the run-up to the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are easily the top two unsigned options. Each has some health uncertainty but was excellent in 2021 when able to take the hill. Injury question marks could have held up their respective markets early in the offseason, and Kershaw also seems to have geographical preferences that’ll limit where he might end up. Yet that duo is in a tier of their own in terms of upside, and they’ll be the highest-profile free agent starters coming out of the transactions freeze.

For this exercise, we’ll set Rodón and Kershaw aside and look at the remainder of the rotation market. 26 other current free agents worked at least 50 innings as a starter in 2021. Using a few key pitching categories, we’ll see how they fared to take a look at some potential lower-cost signings for teams in search of back-of-the-rotation depth.

As with Rodón and Kershaw, a few of these pitchers represent unique cases. Yusei Kikuchi reportedly had three-year offers in hand before the lockout, so his market may be beyond “buy-low” status. Matthew Boyd and Danny Duffy each had surgery late in the 2021 season and aren’t expected to be ready for the start of next year. Boyd’s recovery timetable is still unclear; Duffy is targeting a June return.

Most of the pitchers remaining are currently healthy, back-end types at this point of their careers, though. Using FanGraphs’ splits leaderboards, let’s take a look at the top performers in various metrics last year. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters).

ERA (league average — 4.34)

  1. Danny Duffy, 2.55
  2. Wily Peralta, 3.12
  3. Kwang-hyun Kim, 3.63
  4. Michael Pineda, 3.72
  5. Matthew Boyd, 3.89
  6. Johnny Cueto, 4.09
  7. Zack Greinke, 4.11
  8. Brett Anderson, 4.22
  9. Yusei Kikuchi, 4.41
  10. Chad Kuhl, 4.43

Strikeout Rate (league average — 22.6%)

  1. Danny Duffy, 25.7%
  2. Yusei Kikuchi, 24.5%
  3. Vince Velasquez, 22.8%
  4. Drew Smyly, 21.8%
  5. Chad Kuhl, 20.1%
  6. Matthew Boyd, 19.9%
  7. Johnny Cueto, 19.8%
  8. Matt Moore, 19.2%
  9. Martín Pérez, 19.1%
  10. Tyler Anderson, 19.1%

Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.7 percentage points)

  1. Danny Duffy, 16.9 points
  2. Yusei Kikuchi, 15.2 points
  3. Michael Pineda, 14.6 points
  4. Drew Smyly, 14.2 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 13.8 points
  6. Tyler Anderson, 13.7 points
  7. Matthew Boyd, 13.1 points
  8. Vince Velasquez, 12.3 points
  9. Zack Greinke, 11.8 points
  10. Martín Pérez, 11.7 points

Ground-Ball Rate (league average — 42.7%)

  1. Brett Anderson, 57.5%
  2. José Ureña, 52.7%
  3. Wily Peralta, 50.8%
  4. Carlos Martínez, 50.2%
  5. Yusei Kikuchi, 48.4%
  6. Garrett Richards, 46.6%
  7. Chad Kuhl, 46.5%
  8. Kwang-hyun Kim, 45.6%
  9. Matt Shoemaker, 45.1%
  10. Zack Greinke, 44.1%

FIP (league average — 4.30)

  1. Danny Duffy, 3.44
  2. Johnny Cueto, 4.10
  3. Matthew Boyd, 4.10
  4. Kwang-hyun Kim, 4.27
  5. Michael Pineda, 4.27
  6. Tyler Anderson, 4.37
  7. Brett Anderson, 4.39
  8. Matt Harvey, 4.60
  9. Yusei Kikuchi, 4.61
  10. Zack Greinke, 4.69

Innings Pitched

  1. Zack Greinke, 168 2/3
  2. Tyler Anderson, 167
  3. Yusei Kikuchi, 157
  4. J.A. Happ, 152 1/3
  5. Zach Davies, 148
  6. Jon Lester, 141 1/3
  7. Mike Foltynewicz, 130
  8. Matt Harvey, 127 2/3
  9. Drew Smyly, 115 2/3
  10. Johnny Cueto, 112 1/3

No CBA Negotiations Between MLB And MLBPA Currently Scheduled

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Last month, Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association weren’t expected to discuss core economics issues until after the New Year. The calendar has since flipped, but there still don’t seem to be any talks on the horizon. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that there is currently no schedule for the next set of collective bargaining discussions.

Nightengale adds that the parties have met twice since MLB instituted a lockout in the early morning hours of December 2. Those talks, as expected, were strictly regarding issues not related to core economics. It’s those key economic issues (i.e. the game’s service time structure, the competitive balance tax and potential playoff expansion) that are of greatest importance to both sides. Finding a mutually agreeable solution on such topics figures to be the most time-consuming and difficult aspect of negotiations.

In the aftermath of the lockout, both commissioner Rob Manfred and key members of the MLBPA (including executive director Tony Clark, lead negotiator Bruce Meyer and players with leadership roles in the union) have expressed a desire to get back to the bargaining table. That hasn’t happened in earnest over the past four weeks, although it’s not clear talks would’ve achieved much regardless. Drellich wrote last month that individuals on both sides believed that December discussions on core economics would likely have only resulted in negotiators “saying the same things to each other over and over.”

Instead, it seems that there’ll need to be an approaching deadline that spurs conversation. At this point on the calendar, neither side is dealing with the level of financial pressure they’d face if the threat of game cancelations became more tangible. The league’s owners aren’t in imminent danger of losing gate revenues, while the players aren’t yet faced with the possibility of foregoing game checks.

Spring Training games are first scheduled to begin on February 26. Players aren’t paid for Spring Training, but owners would first face lost revenues at that point. If the work stoppage lingers long enough into Spring Training that regular season games are threatened — at least some form of exhibition play, even if abbreviated, will be required for players to work their way into game shape — then the possibility of lost income for players looms larger. Of course, current free agents (and a few players in DFA limbo) are faced with ongoing employment uncertainty due to the ban on major league transactions.

For now, it doesn’t seem those scenarios are imminent enough to push the parties back to the negotiating table. It does seem, however, that significant progress will have to be made at some point during this month. Shortly after the institution of the lockout, Nightengale suggested the sides viewed February 1 as a “soft deadline” for a new CBA to be in place in order to avoid interruptions to Spring Training. He floated March 1 as a possible deadline for regular season play to proceed on schedule given the need for some form of ramp-up period. Opening Day is currently scheduled for March 31.

The Best Remaining Free Agents

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The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement brought about a November flurry of free agent signings well beyond anything we’ve seen before.  We published our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list on November 8th, and at this point 20 players from that list remain unsigned.  Let’s take a look at who will still be out there when the lockout ends.

1.  Carlos Correa.  The Rangers committed $500MM to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Tigers signed Javier Baez.  The Tigers doubling up on one of the big five free agent shortstops should, in theory, be a good thing for Correa.  As our top free agent of the winter, we still believe Correa’s agent will find a way to get his client paid.  However, if teams like the Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Phillies truly won’t get near Correa’s assumed asking price (north of Seager’s $325MM), he lacks a contending big market team in need of a shortstop.

3.  Freddie Freeman.  Most observers still consider the Braves the favorite for Freeman.  Last week, I ran through potential matches if the Braves can’t get it done.  MLBTR readers saw the Yankees and Dodgers as clear favorites in that case.  For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with that.

4.  Kris Bryant.  Hours prior to the expiration of the CBA, Jon Heyman mentioned that the Mets, Angels, and Padres had shown interest in Bryant, while the Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros are among the other teams who have “checked in.”  Bryant’s expected market prior to the lockout remains mostly intact, but the Rangers have committed $561.2MM to free agents and the Mets are in for $254.5MM.  That probably decreased the willingness of those teams to go big on Bryant.

8.  Trevor Story.  Story could serve as the more affordable alternative to Correa, with Baez’s six-year, $140MM deal likely serving as a benchmark.  Story doesn’t have an obvious shortstop-needy team with $100MM+ burning a hole in its pocket, however.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  Castellanos was one of the top available bats at the opening of free agency, and he figures to be easier for a new team to sign than Freeman.  Still, Castellanos is a player with some wide error bars on contract predictions.  MLBTR said $115MM over five years, but outlets like ESPN and FanGraphs were at three years and $54-63MM.

15.  Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber is a player who works against Castellanos, in that he’s a year younger and didn’t receive a qualifying offer.  He had a similar 2021 season to Castellanos, albeit with less volume.

18.  Carlos Rodon.  We felt that second half health concerns would limit Rodon to one to three years, and we still feel that way.  If that’s correct, his market could be robust given the increasing aversion among teams to long-term contracts.  The chance to get a potential ace on a short-term deal is what made Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so appealing.

20.  Seiya Suzuki.  When the lockout ends, Suzuki will have 20 days left to sign with an MLB team.  As Brad Lefton of the New York Times pointed out in late November, “Spring training in Japan starts Feb. 1, roughly three weeks earlier than the current MLB schedule. Beyond players with health issues, latecomers are almost unheard-of in Japan. If Suzuki has any thoughts of returning to the Carp, he would probably want to do that with the rest of the group on Feb. 1.”  If we don’t see progress on the MLB lockout this month, it’s possible Suzuki will play another year in Japan rather than wait around in limbo.

21.  Anthony Rizzo.  It’s possible Rizzo would like to see what happens with Freeman to get clarity on his own market, but Rizzo will require a much more modest contract.  He could find a home with a team that won’t be considering Freeman.  Rizzo and his wife have moved out of their longtime Chicago apartment, but if he signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.

25.  Jorge Soler.  Soler’s market hasn’t been altered much by the signings that have taken place.  He’ll be rooting for the National League designated hitter.

29.  Kenley Jansen.  Most of the top right-handed relievers are off the board, like Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Mark Melancon, and Corey Knebel.  But contenders can almost always supplement the bullpen, so Jansen should be fine.  The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres are the ten teams who have spent at least $7MM on a reliever so far.

32.  Michael Conforto.  We’ve only seen four major outfield signings so far in Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, Avisail Garcia, and Mark Canha.  We generally didn’t expect Conforto to re-sign with the Mets anyway, so his market is largely unaffected.

33.  Clayton Kershaw.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 81.8% of readers predicted Kershaw would sign with the Dodgers or Rangers or retire.  Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of the lefty, who turns 34 in March.  Kershaw received a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon in October.

34.  Yusei Kikuchi.  One of four starting pitchers remaining from our Top 50 list, Kikuchi is only 30 years old and comes without health concerns.  Despite a 4.41 ERA on the season, the lefty has upside and should be a popular post-lockout target.

40.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke, 38, seems in line for a one-year deal if he decides to continue playing.

41.  Eddie Rosario.  Rosario seemed like a decent match for the Marlins, who signed Avisail Garcia for $53MM.  Otherwise, his market should be mostly intact.

43.  Jonathan Villar.  Leury Garcia signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal to stay with the White Sox as their jack-of-all-trades utility guy.  Villar generally doesn’t play outfield, but he’s otherwise comparable and may still find a two-year deal.

45.  Ryan Tepera.  Tepera is a solid right-handed setup type.  Hector Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal could be a comparable on the high end.  Tepera may be easier to sign than Jansen, as Tepera doesn’t have any attachment to serving in a closer’s role.

47.  Nelson Cruz.  Like Soler, Cruz will be well-served by a universal DH.

48.  Danny Duffy.  Last month, Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he “plans to start a throwing program in March and intends to be ready to pitch by June.”  The 33-year-old southpaw will make for an intriguing one or two-year addition.

Honorable mentions: Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Johnny Cueto, Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly, Andrew McCutchen, Collin McHugh, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Michael Pineda

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