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Pirates Sign First-Rounder Termarr Johnson

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The Pirates signed fourth overall pick Termarr Johnson this afternoon, the club announced. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) he’ll receive a $7.219MM signing bonus that’s a bit above the $7.01MM accompanying slot value.

Top two selections Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones were the only players in the class to beat Johnson’s bonus. That’s no surprise, as the left-handed hitting infielder was a consensus top five talent available. FanGraphs and The Athletic each placed Johnson third on their pre-draft rankings. He placed fourth at Baseball America and second at ESPN.

Just as there’s little disagreement about the 18-year-old’s pedigree, reports of his skillset are similar across the board. All four outlets call Johnson a future plus or better hitter, praising both his bat-to-ball skills and surprising bat speed for a 5’8″ player. Keith Law of the Athletic notes that some scouts believe Johnson is the best high school hitter they’ve seen in more than a decade, while ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel indicated his profile is broadly reminiscent to that of José Ramírez or Rafael Devers.

It’d be unfair to expect any high school player to become a superstar of that caliber, but evaluators have been effusive in their praise of his offensive upside. Johnson doesn’t have a traditionally projectable frame given his stature, and all four outlets indicate he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop. There’s a general agreement the Atlanta native could be an impactful bat-first second baseman at his peak, with Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pointing to Brandon Lowe as a general comp for this style of player.

With Johnson signed, each of the top ten overall selections have agreed to terms. It’s expected that everyone selected on the first day of the draft will sign before Monday’s deadline. Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote this morning that Mets third-round pick Brandon Sproat, a right-hander out of the University of Florida, looks to be the highest selection leaning towards foregoing pro ball this summer.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.

Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.

The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).

There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.

Padres, Joe Musgrove Nearing Extension Agreement

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7:20pm: Heyman reports (on Twitter) that San Diego and Musgrove are close to an agreement on a five-year deal that’d guarantee roughly $100MM.

7:14pm: Extension discussions between the Padres and Joe Musgrove are “gaining momentum,” reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link). The sides have still yet to come to an agreement, but Lin indicates there’s mutual optimism a deal could be hammered out by next week.

The generally optimistic tenor has been prevalent for the past couple weeks. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the All-Star Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently hasn’t deterred or meaningfully set back talks.

Terms currently under discussion are unclear, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Friars made an offer around the Break that resembled the free agent deals given to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season.

Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason. That makes for a reasonable comparison point for the Padres, but Musgrove and his representatives at Full Circle Sports Management could reasonably seek to top those markers. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.63 ERA through 109 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.

Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 57 starts since the beginning of 2020.

A new contract would begin with Musgrove’s age-30 season, giving him a strong case for a six-year deal at an annual rate that’d push him above the $110MM – 115MM range for a total guarantee. At the same time, it’d be plenty understandable if Musgrove were a bit less concerned about maximizing his earning potential to remain with the Padres. He’s a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with the organization. It’s uncommon for players of his magnitude to even discuss an in-season extension when they’re mere months away from the open market.

The appeal for the Padres in trying to keep Musgrove around is fairly evident. He’s one of the sport’s best pitchers, and the Friars could lose Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for two more seasons, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove if they can finalize an extension.

Giants Place Joc Pederson On Injured List

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The Giants have placed outfielder Joc Pederson on the seven-day injured list, which is specific to concussion-like symptoms. Infielder Jason Vosler has been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to take his active roster spot.

Pederson has been one of the Giants more productive hitters this season. Signed to a $6MM deal over the winter, he’s hit 17 home runs in only 285 plate appearances. Pederson has a .242/.319/.492 line, splitting his time between the corner outfield and designated hitter. It’s something of a bounceback showing for the 30-year-old, who posted below-average offensive numbers between 2020-21 after a generally strong run with the Dodgers.

While Pederson could return to the lineup within a week, his trip to the IL comes at an interesting time for the Giants. San Francisco enters play tonight with a 49-50 record, placing them three games back in the NL Wild Card race. The next few days could prove pivotal towards determining how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff approach the deadline. They’ll have to navigate the next few games without one of their better left-handed bats.

If the Giants did decide to sell, Pederson would be an interesting trade candidate himself. He’s an affordable platoon bat who’d certainly appeal to contenders searching for that kind of player. As an impending free agent, Pederson would be among the likeliest players the Giants could deal if they moved anyone. He checked in 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the top 60 deadline trade candidates this afternoon. Players on the IL can still be traded, so the Giants could move Pederson before next Tuesday’s deadline if other clubs continue to express interest despite the concussion symptoms.

White Sox Outright Parker Markel

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5:59pm: MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (on Twitter) that Markel has accepted his outright assignment and will remain in the organization.

4:26pm: The White Sox announced this afternoon they’ve outrighted reliever Parker Markel off the 40-man roster. Chicago hadn’t previously announced the righty had been designated for assignment, but he’s evidently already cleared waivers. The 40-man tally drops to 39.

Markel spent about a month and a half on the 40-man roster, having been added off waivers from the A’s in early June. The 31-year-old has spent his entire stint in the organization on optional assignment to Triple-A Charlotte, where he’s struggled. Markel has tossed 14 innings with the Knights, posting a 6.43 ERA despite a quality 28.8% strikeout rate. That’s largely due to strike-throwing issues, as the 6’5″ righty has walked 15.2% of batters faced.

That blend of strikeouts and erratic control is nothing new for Markel. He’d fanned 35.4% of opponents with the A’s top affiliate earlier in the season, managing a 1.89 ERA despite a 12.7% walk percentage. That earned him a brief big league look in Oakland, where he tossed three scoreless innings in his first MLB action since 2019.

Markel has previously been outrighted in his career, meaning he’ll have the right to elect minor league free agency. The team didn’t announce whether he plans to do so or will stick with the Knights and try to work his way back onto the roster.

Red Sox, Jose Peraza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with José Peraza on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll head to Triple-A Worcester.

Peraza, 28, has some experience in Boston. He spent the shortened 2020 campaign with the Red Sox, one of four teams with which he’s played as a big leaguer. The switch-hitting utilityman has also suited up with the Dodgers, Reds (where he’s spent the bulk of his career) and Mets. A speedster with plus contact skills, he owns a .266/.306/.372 line in parts of seven MLB campaigns, rarely striking out but never drawing many walks or hitting for much power.

Last season, Peraza appeared in 64 games for the Mets, seeing virtually all of his defensive action at either second or third base. He hit only .204/.266/.380, managing six home runs but running a career-worst .209 batting average on balls in play. The Mets waived him at the end of the season, and he landed with the Yankees on a minor league contract.

Peraza has appeared in 75 games with the Yankees top affiliate this season. Peraza hit .239/.293/.368 for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, striking out in only 11.8% of his plate appearances with a 5.2% walk rate. He was released from that deal two weeks ago, and he’ll now try to get back to the big leagues with Boston.

Marlins Place Trevor Rogers On Injured List, Designate Willians Astudillo

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The Marlins have made a handful of moves in advance of tonight’s series opener with the Mets (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 26, with lower back spasms. Miami also selected reliever Jake Fishman and infielder Charles Leblanc onto the big league roster, designating Willians Astudillo for assignment. To clear a second 40-man roster spot, the Marlins transferred Max Meyer from the 15-day to the 60-day IL. That was a formality, as the top prospect is set to undergo Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the next year-plus.

Rogers had been slated to start tomorrow, but the Marlins will obviously have to find a replacement. The IL stint is the latest in what has been a frustrating season for the southpaw, who looked to have broken out as one of the game’s top young pitchers a year ago. Rogers pitched to a 2.64 ERA and earned an All-Star nod in 2021, but he’s gone in the opposite direction this season. He owns just a 5.85 ERA through 87 2/3 innings, watching his strikeout rate plummet from 28.5% to 20.8% in the process.

Astudillo has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. The former Twins utilityman signed a minor league deal with Miami over the winter, and he’s posted an excellent .321/.364/.557 showing through 33 Triple-A contests. Astudillo, owner of perhaps the sport’s best bat-to-ball skills, has only gone down on strikes in 4.3% of his minor league plate appearances, but he’s not made much of an impact in 21 MLB contests. Despite fanning in just three of his 55 trips to the dish, he owns a meager .241/.255/.296 showing with one homer and a 1.8% walk rate.

The Marlins will presumably again place Astudillo on waivers over the next few days. He’s already passed through the wire unclaimed this year and accepted an outright assignment to their top affiliate in Jacksonville. It’s possible he eventually winds up back with the Jumbo Shrimp, but he’d again have the right to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Leblanc and the aptly-named Fishman are each joining the Marlins for what’ll be their major league debuts. The former is a 26-year-old infielder who was a fourth-round draftee of the Rangers out of the University of Pittsburgh back in 2016. Leblanc spent six years in the Texas system, mostly splitting his time between second and third base, before signing a minor league deal with Miami last offseason. The right-handed hitter has impressed over 360 plate appearances in Jacksonville, hitting .302/.381/.503 with 14 home runs. Leblanc’s 27.2% strikeout rate is higher than ideal, but he’s done enough from a power perspective to get an MLB call.

Fishman, 27, also entered pro ball in that 2016 draft. He fell to the 30th round, where the Blue Jays selected the Union College product. Fishman briefly reached Triple-A in the Toronto system before qualifying for minor league free agency during the 2020-21 offseason. He’s spent the past two years working as a multi-inning reliever in Jacksonville. This season, the southpaw has an excellent 1.87 ERA with a robust 54.3% ground-ball rate across 43 1/3 innings, posting roughly average strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9.1%, respectively).

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

Mets Designate Travis Jankowski For Assignment

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The Mets have designated outfielder Travis Jankowski for assignment, tweets Tim Britton of the Athletic. The move clears an active roster spot for the recently-acquired Tyler Naquin. New York also recalled Sam Clay and Stephen Nogosek, optioned David Peterson to Triple-A Syracuse and confirmed the previously-reported placement of Drew Smith on the 15-day injured list.

Adding Naquin supplanted Jankowski as the left-handed hitting fourth outfielder. New York’s starting outfield of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte will continue to assume the bulk of the playing time, but Naquin adds more power to the bench. Jankowski is a lighter-hitting speed and defense specialist, but each of Naquin and Marte is capable of handling center field at times when Nimmo needs a rest.

The Mets signed Jankowski to a minor league contract in Spring Training, and he cracked the Opening Day roster. He lost a good chunk of the year after fracturing a metacarpal in his left hand, and he’s not seen a whole lot of action in Queens. While Jankowski has made his way into 43 games, he’s tallied only 63 plate appearances as a primary pinch-runner or defensive replacement. He’s drawn eight walks against only nine strikeouts, but he’s collected just nine hits (all singles).

Jankowski has never been a power threat, tallying nine homers in a little more than 1200 career plate appearances. His combination of plate discipline, baserunning and ability to cover all three outfield positions has allowed him to spend parts of eight years in the big leagues — primarily in a fourth/fifth outfield capacity. He owns a .236/.320/.311 line as a big leaguer.

New York already created a 40-man roster spot for Naquin last night, but designating Jankowski for assignment was the only way to take him off the active roster. He has more than five years of major league service, giving him the right to refuse an option to the minor leagues. He’ll be traded or waived in the coming days, and he’d be able to elect free agency if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Mariners Claim Phillips Valdez Off Waivers From Red Sox

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The Mariners have claimed reliever Phillips Valdez off waivers from the Red Sox and optioned him to Triple-A Tacoma, per a club announcement. Seattle already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no additional moves were necessary.

Valdez lost his roster spot in Boston earlier this week. The right-hander had made 13 appearances this season, pitching to a 4.41 ERA across 16 1/3 frames. He had a modest 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% swinging strike percentage, but he induced ground-balls at a very strong 58.7% clip. That’s generally in line with the career track record for Valdez, who has a 4.56 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 53.9% grounder percentage through 102 2/3 innings between the Rangers and Red Sox over the past four years.

The 30-year-old has an even better 64.1% grounder rate through 14 appearances with the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester this year, although he’s walked an untenable 19.4% of hitters at the level. He’s in his final option year, so the M’s can keep him in Tacoma for the remainder of the 2022 campaign if he sticks on the 40-man roster.

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