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Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

AL East Notes: Armstrong, Jones, Turner

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Rays righty Shawn Armstrong won’t be ready for the start of the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Armstrong, who’s dealing with a neck injury, is “highly unlikely to be ready” for Opening Day, manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin. The team is still working to ascertain a more specific diagnosis.

Armstrong, 32, bounced between four teams from 2019-22 but twice found his way to the Rays and, in 2022, finally had the breakout showing of which several clubs clearly believed him to be capable. In 55 innings with Tampa Bay, he posted a solid 3.60 ERA with even more encouraging strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 26%, 6% and 49.7% — all of which are better than the league average. Armstrong’s heater sat at a career-best 95.6 mph with Tampa Bay in 2022, and his 12.3% swinging-strike rate, and 38% opponents’ chase rate both suggest he could have more strikeouts in the tank.

Armstrong was a lock to make the club, both based on last year’s performance and his lack of minor league options, so he’ll be placed on the Major League injured list at some point. Candidates to replace him in the big league bullpen to begin the season include righties Calvin Faucher and Rule 5 selection Kevin Kelly, both of whom are on the 40-man roster. Kelly would have to hold his spot on the MLB roster or be offered back to the Guardians upon clearing waivers. The Rays are expected to select the contract of non-roster righty Trevor Kelley later this month, and other non-roster veterans who’ll be vying for the open spot include Heath Hembree, Kyle Crick and Ryan Burr — among many others.

Some other notes from the division…

  • The Rays are going to begin taking a look at shortstop prospect Greg Jones out in the outfield, tweets Topkin. The 2019 first-rounder has played exclusively at short in his minor league career to date, but the Rays place an emphasis on defensive versatility in all their players and the team has Wander Franco entrenched at shortstop. Jones, who was selected to the 40-man roster over the winter, ranked as the No. 91 prospect in baseball prior to the 2022 season, per MLB.com, but his stock dipped a bit with last year’s .238/.318/.392 showing in 358 Double-A plate appearances. Jones appeared in 79 games, but that was actually a career-high, as he’s been plagued by both shoulder and leg injuries in his young career. FanGraphs credits Jones with 80-grade speed, and Baseball America lauds his athleticism, writing that some scouts believe he can be a plus defender in center field. Adding some outfield work to his skill set will only create further opportunities for the 25-year-old switch-hitter to work his way onto the big league roster.
  • The Red Sox got a scare earlier this week when infielder Justin Turner was hit in the face with a pitch. Though the scene was quite scary to look at, with a trainer holding a towel to Turner’s bloody face, it appears for now as though Turner has avoided any kind of nightmare scenario. Turner’s wife later reported that the slugger required 16 stitches but didn’t fracture anything. Manager Alex Cora provided an update today, relayed by Mike Monaco of NESN, saying that Turner will probably get those stitches removed in two weeks. With just over three weeks until Opening Day, there could be some time there for Turner to make it back on the field, but Cora says it’s too early to think about that. It’s possible Turner might still miss a bit of time, but given how gruesome the scene was to watch, a small absence would likely be considered a good outcome.

Pirates’ Jarlin Garcia Shut Down For Several Weeks

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Pirates lefty Jarlin Garcia, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with a club option for the 2024 season this offseason, will go multiple weeks without throwing, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk announced Wednesday (Twitter link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). While scans of Garcia’s elbow and shoulder have come back clean, he’s still unable to grip a baseball after leaving his most recent spring outing with tightness in his left arm. The club is still in the process of trying to secure a more concrete diagnosis, but the fact that they’re expecting a weeks-long break from throwing effectively rules Garcia out for Opening Day.

Garcia, 30, spent the past three seasons with the Giants and was with the Marlins for the three seasons prior. He’s not a household name but has emerged as a solid reliever over the past several years. Dating back to 2019, he’s tossed 202 2/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while picking up a pair of saves and 27 holds. Garcia’s 21.6% strikeout rate and 42.1% ground-ball rate are both a few ticks below the league average in that time, but his 7.2% walk rate is a fair sight better than league average as well. He sits 93.4 mph with his heater, his primary offering, and complements it with a changeup and slider that he uses equally as often as the other — though the former is the more effective offering of the two.

The injury to Garcia leaves the Pirates with just one left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster: Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez, whom they selected out of the Dodgers organization. Hernandez has yet to pitch in Triple-A but posted a 2.14 ERA and 22-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 High-A frames last year before moving up to Double-A and logging a 3.96 ERA in 38 2/3 frames. He fanned an impressive 29.7% of his opponents in Double-A but also issued walks at an unsightly 11.4% clip.

An absence from Garcia would certainly seem to increase Hernandez’s chances of breaking the roster, though the Bucs may not relish the idea of a Rule 5 pick with no Triple-A experience being their lone left-on-left options late in games to begin the season. As such, non-roster invitees like Caleb Smith, Rob Zastryzny, Angel Perdomo and Daniel Zamora could all see increased chances of making the club. The free-agent market still has a few lefties of note as well, including Zack Britton, Mike Minor and Ross Detwiler.

Alternatively, Pittsburgh has a few other paths to consider. Many veterans on minor league deals with other clubs will exercise opt-outs in their contracts between now and Opening Day, upon being informed they haven’t made their current club’s roster. There’s also the waiver wire to monitor and the spring trade market, both of which will pick up in a few weeks when teams begin selecting the contracts of non-roster veterans who’ve made the club and, in corresponding moves, shedding others from the 40-man roster.

Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

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Twelve-year big league veteran Mitch Moreland didn’t play during the 2022 season, and the 37-year-old confirmed to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his days as a player are now behind him. “I’m retired,” Moreland said, noting that he’s enjoyed being able to spend the past year-plus with his family. Bradford adds that Moreland is currently in Red Sox camp to work with some younger players after getting an invite from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora.

Selected by the Rangers in the  17th round of the 2007 draft, Moreland was in the big leagues just over three years later, making a strong impression with a .255/.364/.469 slash and nine homers in 173 plate appearances as a rookie. That strong showing set the stage for a torrid postseason effort in which a then 24-year-old Moreland batted .348/.400/.500 with a homer and four doubles, helping Texas advance to the World Series, where they fell to the Giants in a 4-1 series loss.

From that point forth, Moreland was entrenched as a big leaguer. He logged regular time in each of the next 11 seasons, serving as a slick-fielding, righty-mashing slugger in the middle of the order for the Rangers, Red Sox and — more briefly — Padres and Athletics. Along the way, Moreland won a Gold Glove for his work at first base with the Rangers and secured an All-Star nod with the Red Sox, who signed him as a free agent prior to the 2017 season and twice re-signed him in free agency — first for two years (2018-19) and then for another one-year deal (2020).

The 2018 season was a big one for Moreland not only due to his All-Star selection but also from a big-picture standpoint; while Moreland’s Rangers fell shy in consecutive World Series appearances in 2010-11, he reached the Fall Classic for a third time with the ’18 Red Sox and this time captured the championship that had twice eluded him in the past. As with the 2010 Rangers, Moreland played a big role in the Red Sox’ postseason success that year, slashing .294/.368/.529 in 19 plate appearances. That included a pinch-hit, three-run bomb at Dodger Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series — a blast that jumpstarted a late-inning rally which saw Boston score nine runs en route to a comeback victory (video).

The Red Sox wound up trading Moreland to the Padres for a pair of prospects (Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) during the shortened 2020 season. He scuffled through a small sample of 73 plate appearances before again heating up in the postseason, where he went 4-for-8 with a double. Moreland inked a one-year deal with Oakland that offseason but was limited to 82 games by ribcage and wrist injuries.

That proved to be the final season of Moreland’s playing career, and while it may not have ended with a flourish, it’s easy to look back and see a successful career —  particularly for a 17th-round pick. Moreland retires as a lifetime .251/.318/.446 hitter in the regular season. He slugged 186 home runs, 219 doubles and nine triples along the way, while piling up 1,020 hits, 527 runs scored and 618 runs batted in. As previously mentioned, he won a Gold Glove and was named to the American League All-Star team. Between his solid arbitration numbers and a quartet of free-agent contracts, Moreland made about $36MM in salary over the course of his 12 seasons in the Majors.

And, while many players go the majority of their career without sniffing the postseason, Moreland’s teams reached the playoffs in an incredible eight of his 12 big league seasons. He added on another 150 plate appearances over the life of 52 postseason games, batting .259/.329/.422 during that time. Congratulations to Moreland on a fine career, and best wishes in whatever lies ahead in his post-playing days.

The Opener: WBC, deGrom, MLBTR Chats

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As we inch closer and closer to Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. World Baseball Classic update

Another handful of games are on the docket for the World Baseball Classic today: Team Australia takes on Team Korea at 9pm CST, while Team Panama faces off against Team Netherlands at 10pm CST. Team Italy will face Team Cuba at 5am CST as well, but surely the game that will grab the most attention occurs at 4am CST, when Team Japan, with two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani on the mound, will face Team China. Australia vs. Korea and China vs. Japan will both be aired on FS1, while Panama vs. Netherlands will air on FS2 and Italy vs. Cuba can be live-streamed on Tubi.

2. deGrom to face hitters today:

Rangers GM Chris Young told reporters, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, that ace Jacob deGrom is set to throw live batting practice today for the first time this spring, as he’s been slowed by tightness in his side since the beginning of camp. Should today go well, Grant notes the likely next step would be for deGrom to begin pitching in spring games. Young has said the Rangers expect their newly signed ace to be ready for Opening Day, but Rangers fans will surely be keeping a close eye on how today’s session goes.

3. MLBTR chats today

MLBTR is excited to continue its live player chat series by welcoming three-time All Star Dan Haren for a live chat with readers at 6:30pm CT. Haren, who played for the Cardinals, A’s, Diamondbacks, Angels, Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, and Cubs during his 13-year MLB career, posted a 3.75 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 3.78 FIP while racking up 2,013 strikeouts over his 2,419 2/3 career innings of work. The best stretch of his career came from 2007-2009, when Haren made three consecutive trips to the All Star game, posting a 3.21 ERA (139 ERA+) and 3.31 FIP in 668 innings of work that culminated in a fifth place finish in Cy Young award voting in 2009. Haren is currently working for the Diamondbacks, where he holds the title of “pitching strategist” in their baseball operations department.

At 5pm CT, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting his weekly Wednesday chat, where you can ask any pressing questions you may have regarding your favorite team or the larger baseball world. Click this link to ask a question in advance or participate live.

Rays Have Discussed Extension With Top Prospect Curtis Mead

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The Rays and top infield prospect Curtis Mead have had some discussions regarding a possible contract extension this spring, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). There’s no indication a deal is likely or imminent, though the talks add an interesting storyline to Tampa Bay camp.

Mead, 22, has still yet to make his major league debut. Initially signed by the Phillies as an international amateur from Australia, he was dealt to Tampa Bay over the 2019-20 offseason for left-hander Cristopher Sánchez. Mead hadn’t even reached full-season ball at the time, but he’s appeared a strong find for the Rays’ scouting department. The 2020 minor league season was scrapped due to the pandemic, but Mead has mashed since returning to game action in 2021.

The right-handed hitter combined for a .321/.378/.533 line across a trio of minor league levels that season, topping out at Double-A. He split the ’22 campaign between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham, putting together a .298/.390/.532 mark with 27 doubles and 13 home runs in only 76 games. The bulk of that work came in Double-A, with Mead only playing in 20 games at the top minor league level. That’s in large part due to an elbow injury that cost him almost all of the season’s second half, perhaps dashing his chances of reaching MLB last year.

Tampa Bay made the obvious decision to add Mead to their 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He can still be optioned to the minors for three consecutive seasons and looks likely to start the 2023 campaign back in Durham. If Mead continues to hit at the level he has the past two years, however, he’d get a big league look before long.

Mead heads into this season ranked between 20th and 40th on top prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic and FanGraphs. Evaluators are effusive in their praise for his bat, though there are a number of questions about his long-term defensive fit. He’s played primarily second and third base in the minors; however, there seems to be a fair amount of risk he’ll eventually have to move to left field or potentially work primarily as a designated hitter.

Regardless of Mead’s defensive outcome, the Rays are clearly enamored enough with his bat they’re open to tacking on their window of club control. Tampa Bay already controls him for at least six seasons. Sending him back to the minors early in 2023 — a reasonable enough decision considering Mead’s lack of Triple-A experience and an infield mix that already includes the likes of Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Vidal Bruján — would likely delay his path to free agency by an additional season. Mead does have the prospect status to potentially “earn” a full year of service time even if he’s not in the majors for 172 days as part of the prospect promotion package in the collective bargaining agreement, but he’d need a top two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting to do so.

There have been a handful of extensions for players who hadn’t yet made their big league debuts. Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery, Evan White, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert have all signed such deals since 2014. Singleton was guaranteed $10MM, while White and Kingery each locked in $24MM. Jiménez secured $43MM. Robert holds the record for such deals with a $50MM guarantee.

Robert and Jiménez were generally viewed as higher-caliber talents at the time of their deals than Mead is now. Jiménez had ranked as Baseball America’s #3 prospect at the time of his contract; Robert was ranked the sport’s #2 minor league talent when he put pen to paper. Kingery (BA’s #31 prospect in 2018) and White (#54 in 2020) fit more into the bucket in which Mead now finds himself: excellent prospects but a bit behind the game’s truly elite minor league talents.

Neither Kingery nor White has met their clubs’ expectations thus far. Both teams would surely like a do-over on those contracts, though even the misses have had a fairly modest effect on the teams’ books. White is making $3MM this season and will secure $7MM and $8MM, respectively, over the next two years. Kingery is due $9MM this year, including a buyout on a 2024 club option.

The Rays don’t spend anywhere close to Philadelphia’s level and are even a ways back of Seattle, so a deal for Mead would be a little more risky than the White or Kingery ones were. Still, the potential payoff of locking up a high-end talent at below-market rates is enough for teams to have interest in this kind of arrangement. Tampa Bay hasn’t reached any extensions with players before their MLB debuts, but they’d made out exceptionally well on early-career pacts for Evan Longoria and Brandon Lowe before either had reached 50 big league contests.

Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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The Astros have spent the past few weeks attempting to work out extensions with a number of key players. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez are among those with whom the club has been in contact, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman now casts some doubt on the chances of either player signing this spring.

Astros GM Dana Brown tells Heyman the club expects to know whether anything will transpire within the next 48 hours. Brown frankly tells Heyman the team is “further away (in negotiations) with Tucker” than Valdez but didn’t handicap the odds of getting a deal done with either player.

Teammate Yordan Alvarez represents one potential comparison point in discussions with Tucker, who has between three and four years of service time. The slugger signed a six-year, $115MM deal just last June, agreeing to a fairly rare midseason extension of significance. Alvarez technically was just shy of three years of service at the time of signing but inked a deal that didn’t go into effect until this year. For all intents and purposes, he was essentially in the same service bucket as Tucker now finds himself.

Alvarez is a better hitter than Tucker and one of the best offensive players in baseball. His career wRC+ of 164 trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances. However, he’s also had some knee issues and been mostly limited to designated hitter, with only part-time work in left field. Tucker, by contrast, is an excellent defensive right fielder.

Alvarez’s deal was the second-largest for a player in the 3-4 year service window. The record still belongs to Freddie Freeman, who signed an eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves ahead of the 2014 season. Freeman was a year younger than Tucker is now and coming off a stronger platform season. However, that deal is a decade old at this point and Tucker’s camp could look to beat that pact. However, such a deal would be the longest deal in Astros history and the second richest, with only Jose Altuve’s $151MM guarantee surpassing it.

Brown indicated that Tucker is seeking out a longer-term deal than the Astros have historically given out. For his part, the GM seems to have little interest in breaking that organizational tradition, telling Heyman, “I understand that [avoidance of long-term deals], and I respect that. A lot of those long-term deals, they don’t end well.”

Given this, it’s no surprise that Astros brass seems to feel better about their odds of extending Valdez. The southpaw can also look to a teammate as a direct extension comp. In his case, it’s righty Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM pact last month. That represented the largest guarantee for a starting pitcher with between three and four years of service time.

It’s fair to expect Valdez’s camp would want to top that mark. Javier’s track record pales in comparison to that of Valdez; while both pitchers sport a 3.05 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, Valdez’s 3.34 FIP outshines Javier’s figure of 3.90 while the lefty also has volume on his side. Valdez has thrown 406 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign, more than a hundred ahead of Javier, and his career best 201 1/3 innings in 2022 have the look of a modern-day workhorse. Javier, by contrast, recorded a seventh inning out just twice during the 2022 season.

That’s partially reflected in Valdez’s better earning power in arbitration. He’s set to make $6.8MM for the upcoming season, whereas Javier was headed for a first-year arbitration salary around $3MM. Valdez, as a Super Two qualifier over the 2021-22 offseason, also had an extra season of arbitration eligibility to build that stronger platform salary. That gap would’ve compounded on an annual basis considering arbitration salaries are based in part on a player’s previous-year salary.

Javier, who celebrates his 26th birthday later this month, had youth on his side in signing that extension compared to Valdez. The southpaw is already 29. That perhaps makes Javier a cleaner long-term bet from the team’s perspective, though it also puts more of a premium for Valdez on securing a lofty guarantee if he’s to sign an extension. While Javier will still get to free agency shortly before turning 31, Valdez would be signing away at least his age-32 season (and perhaps beyond) in any deal that buys out free agent seasons.

Both Valdez and Tucker are controllable through the end of the 2025 season, given the club ample time to revisit contract talks in the future, even if no extensions get done in Brown’s proposed 48-hour window. With that being said, Brown could certainly continue attempting to extend the stay of either Alex Bregman or Altuve in Houston once negotiations with Tucker and Valdez have been tabled. Both veterans are set to become free agents following the 2024 season, meaning there will be far more urgency in locking up that pair of players going forward, particularly once the 2023 season has drawn to a close. The GM has already expressed a desire to retain both players, saying he’d like to keep both in Houston for the entirety of their careers.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The White Sox made additions as expected at left field, second base, and in the rotation.  GM Rick Hahn brought in a new manager and largely stayed out of the trade market, resulting in a team that needs to see increased production from incumbents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the hire of Pedro Grifol as manager.  The 52-year-old former Royals coach will hopefully serve as a breath of fresh air after Tony La Russa’s two-year tenure.  Perhaps to compensate for Grifol’s lack of managing experience, Charlie Montoyo will serve as his bench coach.  Jose Castro is the new hitting coach, also taking on this role for the first time.  He’ll be assisted by another new addition, Chris Johnson.

After making fairly obvious calls to exercise Tim Anderson’s option and decline that of Josh Harrison, the club was given an extra $8MM to play with due to a surprising decision by AJ Pollock.  Pollock chose a $5MM buyout over a $13MM player option, despite a disappointing season.  He ended up signing with the Mariners for $7MM, sacrificing a million bucks in the process, but finding what he presumably feels is a better situation for playing time.  That’s a bit odd, because the only sure thing in Chicago’s outfield at that point was the oft-injured Luis Robert.  Pollock explained this month to The Athletic’s Corey Brock, “I just felt for me and for the team, in talking with them, there would be a better fit somewhere else.”

At November’s GM Meetings, Rick Hahn noted he expected to be more active this offseason in trades as opposed to free agency.  Not long after that, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine noted that the Sox “[had] their eye on” Oakland catcher Sean Murphy.  Murphy, of course, would wind up with the Braves in a December trade that also brought William Contreras to Milwaukee.  James McCann was also traded this offseason, while free agency included catchers Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, Mike Zunino, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, and Luke Maile.

Given those catching options and their prices, Hahn chose to stand pat.  The Sox will stick with incumbents Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala behind the dish.  After a terrible 2022 season marred by October ’21 knee surgery, Grandal has spent this offseason training with Blackhawks strength and conditioning coach Paul Goodman, according to James Fegan of The Athletic.

It was clear the White Sox were going to add a starting pitcher this winter, and in late November they reached an agreement with Mike Clevinger.  Clevinger, 32, had a middling post-Tommy John surgery season in ’22 for the Padres, particularly over his last 13 starts including the postseason.  Unbeknownst to the White Sox at that time, Clevinger was under investigation by MLB following allegations of domestic violence.  Earlier this week, MLB announced that they “will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations.”

Shortly after the Clevinger agreement in November, longtime White Sox star Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM deal with the Astros.  At the age of 36, we thought Abreu would be limited to two-year offers.  The Guardians reportedly offered three years as well, though at an unknown average annual value.  Abreu later commented through an interpreter that the White Sox made a “really good offer” of unknown value.  But unlike the first time Abreu approached free agency, the White Sox did not seem likely to retain him.  They’ve lost their best hitter from 2022, but did open up first base for Andrew Vaughn as expected.  Vaughn logged 645 innings in the corner outfield spots for the Sox last year and struggled defensively.

With limited payroll space, it seemed in December that the White Sox were at least willing to discuss closer Liam Hendriks in trades.  Such concerns took a backseat to the unfortunate news in January that Hendriks would undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.  As Hahn put it in a statement, “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player. I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.”

In my October offseason outlook for the White Sox, I suggested that Pollock and Adam Engel might continue to serve as the backup plan in center field, given Luis Robert’s injury history.  Pollock chose free agency, and the club non-tendered Engel.  Instead, the White Sox added Jake Marisnick, Billy Hamilton, and Victor Reyes on minor league deals.  Leury Garcia has also played some center field, but in general, I expected the Sox to add a better safety net for Robert.

The White Sox did address their left field situation in a decisive way, signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM contract that ranks as the largest deal in franchise history.  Coming off a season in which he hit five home runs in 521 plate appearances, we were surprised to see Benintendi land a five-year deal.  But as MLBTR’s Steve Adams put it, the 28-year-old Benintendi is a high-floor player who has “settled in as a contact-oriented left fielder who draws walks, rarely strikes out, and provides quality defense.”  It seems that the Sox at least explored trade options before signing Benintendi, as they were connected to the Arizona outfield surplus before the Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays.

While the White Sox reportedly expressed interest in Royals infielder Nicky Lopez in late January, he has not been traded to date.  The free agent market offered second base capable players such as Brandon Drury, Jean Segura, Aledmys Diaz, and Adam Frazier.  Plenty of middle infielders were traded, such as Kevin Newman, Kyle Farmer, Kolten Wong, Miguel Rojas, Luis Arraez, and Adalberto Mondesi.  The Sox instead opted to bring Elvis Andrus back on an affordable $3MM deal in February.

Andrus, 34, has yet to play second base in his 14-year MLB career, but he’ll do so for the White Sox.  He’ll also be available as a capable backup for shortstop Tim Anderson, who has played in about 62% of Chicago’s games since 2021.  Though a certain portion of the White Sox fanbase would like to move on from Anderson, the club conveyed to potential suitors that they would not be trading him, reported Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic during the Winter Meetings.

Anderson, 29, is under team control through 2024 via a club option.  Speaking to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin in February, it sounds like Anderson would prefer some clarity on his future with the club.  He said, “I’m on two option years, and we let it get here and it’s like, dang, I kind of want to know where my feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is and I want to know where I’m going to be at.”  He also made quite clear he’d like to stay.  Anderson’s heir apparent, former first-round pick Colson Montgomery, could be knocking on the door of the Majors when Anderson enters his contract year.

Turnover has been constant in right field for the White Sox in recent years.  Grifol and the White Sox would like to see 24-year-old prospect Oscar Colas win the everyday job, with Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, and Marisnick considered other options.  Eloy Jimenez is primarily expected to serve as designated hitter, but may play right field occasionally.  Colas has only seven games at the Triple-A level, but has a chance to seize the job early this year.

Hahn’s other offseason moves were around the margins, grabbing Nick Avila in the Rule 5 draft and acquiring cheaply-available arms like Franklin German, Gregory Santos, and A.J. Alexy.

While Hahn likely entertained more trades than the ones that reached the rumor mill, ultimately his offseason was a predictable one.  The chances of the 2023 White Sox mostly rest on players that were already in-house.  Specifically, it will boil down to seven players who disappointed due to some combination of injury and underperformance in 2022.  Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez have been unable to stay healthy the past two years.  Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Lance Lynn combined for 15.9 WAR in 2021 and 4.2 in ’22, a difference of nearly 12 wins.

Though the club can’t count on big offense from Andrus or Colas, the other seven members of the team’s likely starting lineup all project as above average hitters.  The team’s rotation is fronted by Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, while Lynn and Giolito should be solid if not aces.  Even without Hendriks, a bullpen fronted by Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Reynaldo Lopez could be formidable.

The 2023 White Sox are a team that is surprisingly easy to dream on, but also a team light on depth in certain spots.  If Grandal struggles again, Seby Zavala isn’t likely to provide much offense from the catcher spot.  There are some backup plans for Anderson and Moncada, but the outfield looks thin if Robert goes on the IL or Colas doesn’t hit the ground running.  Similarly, the rotation has question marks in the fourth and fifth spots with Michael Kopech and Clevinger and has little room to sustain injuries.

While the 2022 season left a bad taste in fans’ mouths, FanGraphs suggests the AL Central is mostly a toss-up among the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox.  It’ll be interesting to see what this post-hype team can do if key players stay healthy.

Rockies’ Lucas Gilbreath To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies reliever Lucas Gilbreath will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, he announced on TikTok (h/t to Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette). He’ll miss the entire 2023 season and likely be sidelined into the ’24 campaign as well.

It’s a disappointing but not surprising development. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported last week that the procedure was likely after Gilbreath had undergone an MRI. Perhaps not coincidentally, Colorado signed veteran southpaw Brad Hand to what essentially amounts to a $3MM deal (assuming he’s not cut within the next three weeks) over the weekend. Hand should step in as Colorado’s top left-handed reliever, with waiver claim Brent Suter adding a potential multi-inning option from the left side.

Hand and Suter make for a decent pairing of matchup options for skipper Bud Black. Still, the club will obviously be disappointed to lose Gilbreath, who had somewhat quietly put together a nice 2022 campaign. The 27-year-old worked to a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings, striking out 26.2% of batters faced with a solid 46.7% grounder rate. Gilbreath walked nearly 14% of opponents but he stifled left-handed batters to a .186 average and meager .220 slugging mark over 74 plate appearances.

The Rox will place Gilbreath on the 60-day injured list once the need for a 40-man roster spot arises. He’ll collect a full year of service while rehabbing, bringing him up to two years and 147 days of MLB time at season’s end. He’s a virtual lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter, though his lack of a platform showing means he’s not likely to collect a salary much higher than the league minimum if tendered a contract. Colorado can control Gilbreath through the 2027 campaign.

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