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Injury Notes: Montas, Musgrove, Hentges, Lux

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Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas told reporters yesterday that he expects to pitch in the majors at some point this season, and could begin throwing in about two months (link via MLB.com). Montas, who underwent shoulder surgery two weeks ago, noted that he “wasn’t fully 100%” when the Yankees acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline last year, though he tried to pitch through the issue.  The results of that attempt were rather discouraging, however, as Montas sported a 6.35 ERA, 38% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.93 FIP in 39 2/3 innings with the Yankees following the trade, which sent Montas and Lou Trivino to the Bronx in exchange for a four prospect package headlined by left-hander Ken Waldichuk.

The Yankees seem comfortable filling the hole in the rotation left by Montas internally with one of Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt. This hardly comes as a surprise, given the strength of New York’s rotation. During the offseason, the club added ace Carlos Rodon to a rotation that already included Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Still, it’s certainly good news for the club that Montas expects to return at some point in the second half, as he could give the club a boost down the stretch if able to return to his old form. The right-hander posted a 3.51 ERA (119 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP in 336 innings of work from 2019 to 2021, and had been pitching well in Oakland last year prior to the trade, sporting a 3.18 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.35 FIP through his 104 2/3 innings as a member of the A’s last year.

More injury updates from around the game:

  • Padres righty Joe Musgrove began throwing off flat ground yesterday, as noted by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Musgrove has been held back with a fractured big toe on his left foot this spring, and has yet to land on his left foot while throwing, instead keeping both feet rooted to the ground. The Padres, who were planning to go with a six-man rotation to open the season prior to Musgrove’s injury, are surely hoping for his quick return to action, as the right-hander figured to be a key cog at the top of San Diego’s rotation this year alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and recently signed Michael Wacha. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA (127 ERA+) with a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings of work last season, earning his first All-Star bid in the process. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension he signed last summer.
  • Guardians manager Terry Francona said yesterday that the progress of lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who has been slowed this spring by shoulder inflammation, was “really, really encouraging” (link via MLB.com). Francona notes that Hentges is set to begin doing dry work shortly and that it wouldn’t “be a surprise if he comes [back] quick,” though there’s been no specifics updates to his timetable for return. Hentges was among the best southpaw relievers in the sport last year, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate backing up his sterling 2.32 ERA that clocked in 65% above league average by ERA+. The Guardians shut Hentges down from throwing back on March 1 and said he’d be evaluated on a week-to-week basis.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that shortstop Gavin Lux’s surgery went well. Lux suffered a torn ACL and damage to his LCL while running the bases during an early spring training game, and Roberts indicated that surgery revealed “more than a sprain” in Lux’s LCL — indicating significant damage to two of the 25-year-old’s cruciate ligaments. Lux is expected to miss the entire 2023 season as he rehabs from the surgery, with the Dodgers slated to rely on trade acquisition Miguel Rojas as their primary shortstop. Utilityman Chris Taylor is expected to see occasional time at the position as well.

The Opener: WBC, Astros, MLBTR Chats

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With Opening Day now just three weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. WBC Update

The World Baseball Classic continues today, with the Czech Republic taking on China this evening at 9pm CT and Cuba taking on Panama at 10:30pm CT. Early tomorrow morning, Korea will face Japan at 4am CT while Italy will take on Chinese Taipei at 5am CT. Cuba vs Panama and Korea vs Japan will both air on FS1, while the Czech Republic vs China and Italy vs Chinese Taipei can be live-streamed on Tubi. Japan has a 1-0 record so far in the WBC, while Panama currently sports a 1-1 record and each of China, Korea, Cuba (pending their ongoing game with Italy), and Chinese Taipei have 0-1 records. The Czech Republic team has yet to participate in a WBC game.

2. Astros extension saga to reach a conclusion

Astros GM Dana Brown has been unusually candid about his efforts to extend both outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez this spring, and those negotiations appear set to come to a head later today. Shortly after a report emerged that the club was facing difficulties in extension talks with both players, Brown himself spoke with the media discussing the negotiations. Brown noted that he expects to hear from both agents this afternoon, though he wasn’t willing to describe today as any sort of “deadline” for negotiations, instead simply noting, “It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.” Both Tucker and Valdez are controlled through the end of the 2025 season, lessening the urgency to complete a deal this spring, though the price on both players only figures to increase the closer they get to free agency.

3. MLBTR Chats Today

A trio of live chats with readers are planned for today, headlined by our chat with former All Star second baseman Jason Kipnis, which is set to begin at 11:30am CT this morning. Kipnis spent almost all of his decade-long major league career in Cleveland, only departing during the shortened 2020 season, the final season of his big league career, to join his hometown Cubs. Kipnis’s best season took place in 2013 with Cleveland, where he .284/.366/.452, good for an wRC+ of 127. That performance earned him his first All-Star appearance and some down-ballot MVP votes. Click here to join the chat with Kipnis.

In addition to Kipnis’s chat, a pair of Offseason in Review chats are set to happen today. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Rays-centric chat here at 9:30am CT, while MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting an Astros-centric chat here in the late afternoon. Keep an eye out throughout the day today for those chats!

Brewers Notes: Voit, Sanchez, Miley

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Luke Voit has been a member of the Brewers organization for just a few weeks. The former home run leader signed a minor league deal a couple weeks ago, getting an opportunity to audition for a roster spot early in Spring Training.

The Brewers will have to make that call relatively early into exhibition play. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Voit would be able to opt out of the deal next Thursday if he’s not added to the big league roster. According to Sherman, Voit’s deal would come with a $2MM base salary if he makes the MLB club.

While that’s far from an exorbitant sum, it remains to be seen whether Milwaukee feels there’ll be sufficient at-bats for Voit to warrant a spot. Keston Hiura is on hand as an in-house option with a similar power-oriented skillset from the right side. Hiura has run exorbitant strikeout tallies over the past few years but he’s flashed impact power upside. The former ninth overall pick connected on 14 home runs with a quality .222 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in just 80 games last season.

Voit and Hiura are seemingly jockeying for reps as a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging first base/DH options Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker. Both Hiura and Voit have actually fared worse against left-handed pitching than righties over the course of their careers. Tellez and especially Winker have had more traditional splits, however, with both handling righties better over the years. While neither Voit nor Hiura has functioned as a traditional lefty masher, they each offer some righty pop to help balance the order.

Adding some power from that side of the dish was apparently a goal for Milwaukee. To that end, Sherman writes that the Brew Crew had checked in with free agent catcher Gary Sánchez earlier in the offseason. Milwaukee subsequently acquired their new backstop, William Contreras, from the Braves as part of the three-team Sean Murphy trade. That swap landed the Brewers five seasons of control over a player they hope to be the long-term answer behind the dish at the cost of center field prospect Esteury Ruiz, who went to Oakland.

Sánchez still has yet to put pen to paper despite reports of interest from the likes of the Angels and Giants in recent months. He’s one of the top unsigned hitters available. Milwaukee no longer has a need for MLB catching, as the duo of Contreras and Víctor Caratini will handle the load. Milwaukee brought in Payton Henry from the Marlins in a low-profile trade to serve as the #3 option. There’s no indication Sánchez remains on the radar as a result, though he could be of interest to any number of teams if he’s willing to take a minor league deal at this stage of the winter.

A bat-first catcher for most of his time with the Yankees, Sánchez flipped the script to an extent during his lone season in Minnesota last year. He hit 16 homers but with a fairly modest .205/.282/.377 overall showing through 471 trips to the plate. That was among the worst full-season offensive performances of his career but he received roughly average grades for his pitch framing and ball-blocking from Statcast.

While Sánchez’s destination is still to be determined, there are no such questions with starter Wade Miley. The Brewers brought him back on a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. It’ll be season number 13 for the 36-year-old southpaw, who acknowledged he thought at points this offseason his career might be over.

“I was so unsure at the end of the year for what was next,” Miley told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I wanted to get my shoulder healthy. I did a little program right after the season was over and it didn’t feel good at all. I did it for four weeks and it was awful. That’s when I went into – I wouldn’t call it depressed mode, but I was like ’it’s not worth it.’ At that moment, I was like, ’I think we’re done.’ Me and my wife talked, and I said, ‘I think this might be it.’”

Miley is coming off a season in which shoulder issues kept him to only nine appearances with the Cubs. Fortunately, he says his arm feels good after an offseason of rest and he felt comfortable giving things another go. Miley figures to take a back-end rotation role in Milwaukee, offering some veteran depth behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer. That takes on added importance for the Brew Crew after spring injuries to Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander have thinned the depth beyond Miley and #6 starter Adrian Houser. As for his long-term outlook, Miley told Nightengale “I guess as long as (teams) keep calling, I’ll keep playing.”

The Mets’ Options If Jose Quintana Misses Time

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The Mets entered spring training with a deep but revamped rotation. Gone were longtime ace Jacob deGrom and steady right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. In their place, the Mets signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, NPB star Kodai Senga and veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who had a resurgent campaign between the Pirates and Cardinals this past season.

That the first injury of the season for manager Buck Showalter’s club came from the typically durable Quintana is both unexpected and unwelcome news. The 34-year-old southpaw logged 32 starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis in 2022, logging an excellent 2.93 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate. It was a vintage Quintana showing, hearkening back to his peak years in Chicago — and it was impressive enough to land him a two-year, $26MM contract (13 times larger than the one-year, $2MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh one winter ago).

Quintana will be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, however, owing to a stress fracture in his rib. There’s no sense running wild with speculation as to whether that’ll amount to weeks or months at this juncture, but at the very least, Opening Day doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Quintana exited after just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League start due to discomfort, so this isn’t likely to be an injury he can just pitch through.

If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that even through all of the turnover in the rotation, they’ve managed to maintain a solid amount of depth beyond the projected Opening Day quintet of Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. There were times when the team appeared open to moving Carrasco, but the early setback for Quintana highlights the importance of retaining him and so much of the other depth from which they could’ve dealt.

To that end, with what looks to be at least a short-term vacancy in the rotation, let’s run through the Mets’ options to fill the spot.

The Two Favorites

David Peterson, LHP, 27 years old

About as overqualified a sixth starter as you’ll find in the league, Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Mets: two of them good and the middle one (2021) quite bad. The lefty sandwiched an ugly 5.54 ERA between a pair of sub-4.00 efforts, with the end result being a solid 4.26 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.14 SIERA) in 222 innings at the big league level.

Peterson leaned more heavily on his four-seamer and slider than ever before in 2022, dropping his sinker/two-seam usage from 26.3% in 2021 to 12.3% last season. He posted career-best totals in swinging-strike rate (12.8%), opponents’ chase rate (31.2%) and opponents’ contact rate (71.2%). It’s tempting to think that some of those gains might be from working out of the bullpen for a spell, but while Peterson had similar ERAs as a starter and a reliever, he had better strikeout and walk rates while working out of the rotation.

Fresh off a season that saw him toss 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.4% grounder rate, Peterson is the ostensible front-runner to take any early starts that Quintana might miss. Other clubs surely had interest in him this winter — particularly once the Mets had signed all three of Verlander, Senga and Quintana — but the decision to hold onto him is already paying off.

Tylor Megill, RHP, 27

If Peterson is the favorite, Megill might not be all that far behind. He made 18 respectable starts in 2021, pitching to a 4.52 ERA with more impressive strikeout and walk rates (26.1% and 7.1%, respectively). In 2022, when the Mets needed a starter, Megill stepped up and took the ball on six occasions from April 7 through May 4, pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA with a gaudy 36-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings of work. His fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph in 2021, was up to nearly 96 mph on average in 2022, and Megill suddenly looked like far more than a band-aid on an injury-marred starting staff — at least until the injury bug bit him, too.

The Mets placed Megill on the 15-day injured list with biceps inflammation on May 12, just days after he was tattooed for eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals. He returned on June 10, made a pair of starts that lasted 3 1/3 frames apiece (yielding a combined six runs in the process) and went back on the IL just seven days after being activated — this time due to a shoulder strain. The absence proved far more substantial this time around. Megill was transferred to the 60-day IL just 10 days after his original placement, and he remained sidelined all the way until Sept. 19.

In his career, Megill has overwhelmed right-handed opponents with a power fastball/slider combination, but his changeup has been generally ineffective, leaving him susceptible to left-handed batters. That bears out in his alarming platoon splits. Righties have been downright flummoxed by him, batting only .202/.247/.331. Lefty bats, however, have absolutely clobbered Megill at a .307/.368/.568 clip. He’ll have a chance to win the job, but if he’s going to find long-term success, he’ll need to find a better offering to neutralize opponents in platoon settings.

Longer Shots Who Could Start At Some Point In 2023

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, 29

Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to San Diego, Lucchesi made 11 solid appearances for the Mets in 2021, serving in this exact type of sixth starter role that’s now resurfaced in Queens. Eight of those appearances were starts, and the former fourth-round pick worked to a decent 4.46  ERA with a more-impressive 3.40 FIP and 3.79 SIERA. Lucchesi punched out a strong 26.1% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.1% walk rate. He might’ve held that role down the stretch — and into 2022 — had he remained healthy, but a late-June diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament led to Tommy John surgery. Lucchesi missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 campaign.

Early in his career with the Friars, Lucchesi looked the part of a solid fourth starter, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 56 starts and 293 2/3 innings from 2018-19. He’s thrown just 44 innings since that time, due primarily to injury, but he owns a 4.24 ERA in 337 2/3 big league innings. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Mets can send him to Triple-A Syracuse to stay stretched out and monitor his workload if they go another route in the rotation. Given that he missed all of the 2022 season, Lucchesi is likely to have his innings capped this season, which probably works against him — especially in the early stages.

Elieser Hernandez, RHP, 27

An offseason acquisition made with an eye toward bolstering the pitching depth, Hernandez came over alongside reliever Jeff Brigham in a deal sending minor leaguers Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum to Miami. He’s fresh off a tough 2022 season, but the former Rule 5 pick — the Marlins selected him out of the Astros organization in 2017 — was once a promising member of the Marlins’ young core of arms. From 2020-21, he pitched 77 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with plus strikeout (26.3%) and walk (5.7%) rates.

Home runs and injuries have been a problem for Hernandez throughout his career, however. His breakout 2020 campaign was shortened by a lat strain, and his 2021 season was interrupted both by a strained quadriceps and inflammation in his right biceps. He’s only shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors, but Hernandez also sports a stout 2.86 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 129 Triple-A frames spread across parts of four seasons. He has a minor league option remaining,  but he could also make the club as a long reliever.

Jose Butto, RHP, 25

Butto, who’ll turn 26 in less than two weeks, made his big league debut last year when he tossed four innings but was knocked around by the Phillies, who scored seven runs against him at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t a great first impression, but Butto nonetheless had a strong year in the minors, logging a combined 3.56 ERA in 129 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Scouting reports at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs laud Butto’s plus changeup and above-average heater, but he lacks a third offering, leading to plenty of speculation that he’ll ultimately settle in as a long reliever or swingman. There’s more upside here if he can improve either his curveball or his slider, but he’d be hard-pressed to leapfrog the names ahead of him for starts early in the season. Still, he’s already gotten his feet wet in the Majors and had success in the upper minors, so with some improvements to his secondary pitches and/or a big early performance in Syracuse, Butto could find himself making some starts at some point this year, as injuries on the big league roster necessitate.

—

As far as non-roster options go, the Mets are generally light on MLB-ready starting pitching in the upper levels of their system (beyond the 40-man names already covered above). Recent trades have thinned out some of that depth, with both J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller going to the A’s for Chris Bassitt, while Thomas Szapucki went to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf swap. Most of the Mets’ very best prospects are position players, and the top-ranked pitchers in their system are generally multiple years from MLB readiness.

The presence of Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez and Butto gives the Mets ample depth from which to draw, particularly given how solid both Peterson and Megill looked at times last year. Still, pitcher performance is volatile and injuries are inevitable. If the Mets want to further cultivate some depth, there are a handful of recognizable veteran names who’ve yet to sign — Michael Pineda, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy among them. Whether that trio, or any of the other remaining starters on the market, is willing to take a minor league deal remains to be seen.

Failing that, the Mets can perhaps keep an eye on other veterans around the league who are currently on minor league/non-roster deals. Many of those pitchers have opt-out opportunities if they don’t make their current club’s roster or upward mobility clauses that allow them to leave the current organization if another team is willing to offer an immediate 40-man roster spot.

For the time being, it doesn’t appear particularly crucial for the Mets to make another addition, but a second injury in the rotation would start to leave an otherwise strong staff looking vulnerable, and there’s little harm in stockpiling depth to the extent possible.

Latest On Phillies’ Rotation Competition

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The Phillies entered camp with much of the season-opening roster in place. The biggest storyline was the battle for the final rotation spot. The Phils have consistently maintained top pitching prospect Andrew Painter would be given a legitimate chance to claim the job even though he won’t turn 20 until next month.

Those plans were seemingly put on hold last week, as the hard-throwing young righty reported some discomfort in his elbow. The Phils sent Painter for further examination. The club has yet to provide many specifics, though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday that the team has not received any indication Painter could require surgical repair. It seems the current expectation is Painter will be able to rest and rehab but that won’t be officially known until orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache has an opportunity to review the young hurler’s medicals.

Even if Painter avoids going under the knife, the issue certainly diminishes his chances of cracking the majors out of camp. That’d point towards left-hander Bailey Falter securing the final rotation spot behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. Falter started 16 of 20 appearances last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 84 frames. The 25-year-old had an average 21.2% strikeout rate and excellent 4.9% walk percentage to support that solid run prevention. The home run ball was a bit of an issue for the fly-ball specialist, but Falter showed enough to suggest he could be a viable back-of-the-rotation option.

Falter addressed his role with reporters this week, indicating he’s not much concerned with where the club deploys him. “As long as I’m one of those 26 guys (on the active roster), I’ll do whatever they want me to do,” he said (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Falter has a decent amount of experience in the relief corps as well, coming out of the bullpen 21 times in 22 outings during his rookie season two years ago.

Aside from Falter and Painter, southpaw Cristopher Sánchez perhaps represents the top option for the fifth rotation spot. Zolecki notes that manager Rob Thomson has named righty Nick Nelson as another starting candidate. Nelson has only started four big league games and none of those appearances lasted more than two innings as opener work. He worked primarily in a multi-inning relief capacity last season, his first in Philadelphia. Nelson threw 68 2/3 innings over 47 outings, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk percentage.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are known for their roster turnover and this offseason was no exception as they made many trades. However, most of the moves were around the edges of their roster, meaning they will go into 2023 with a fairly similar squad to the one that just won 86 games and made the playoffs for a fourth straight year. It’s possible they could have better results this season simply by having better health outcomes, though they also made one significant free agent splash to upgrade the squad.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $11MM
Total spending: $40MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The injury bug hit the Rays pretty hard in 2022, as only four pitchers on the staff topped 80 innings pitched and only four position players got into more than 115 games. Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe and others missed significant time. But the club leaned on its trademark depth and still managed to squeeze into the postseason for a fourth straight year.

As the offseason began, the first item on the agenda was a roster crunch, a common issue for a club that stockpiles depth and runs tight budgets. They had to make some tough decisions due to a 19-player arbitration class and a number of players who needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Those tough decisions led to the departure of a few long-tenured Rays.

Defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier had his option turned down after a 2022 season ended by hip surgery. Ryan Yarbrough was non-tendered after another season of passable but fairly uninspiring results. Nick Anderson was placed on waivers after two straight seasons mostly lost to injury, later clearing and signing with Atlanta. Ji-Man Choi could have been retained for one more season via arbitration but was instead flipped to the Pirates. J.P. Feyereisen still had four years of club control but was traded to the Dodgers as he is expected to miss most of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery. Along with a few other swaps, the Rays ended up making eight trades in a span of about a month, from mid-November to mid-December. Those moves helped clear out some salary and some roster space, along with the free agent departures of Corey Kluber, Mike Zunino and David Peralta.

It feels strange to look at all of that roster churn and characterize it as stability, but the club didn’t really subtract a core performer, at least from last year’s club. Some other offseasons have seen the Rays part with notable players like Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows or Blake Snell, but this year’s departures weren’t quite as prominent. Players like Kiermaier, Zunino, Feyereisen and Anderson missed significant time last year and weren’t really factors very often, if at all. Kiermaier has been a key cog on the team for the past decade, though he’s often been limited by injuries, including being held to just 63 contests last year. It’s a similar story for Zunino, who has been the club’s primary catcher for the past four years but only got into 36 games last season.

Arguably, the club’s biggest loss from last year is Kluber, as he made 31 starts with a 4.34 ERA. That’s not exactly within range of his previous Cy Young form, but that still had value to a club that dealt with so many injury absences.

It’s possible that the club recognized this, as their most significant offseason splash was to replace Kluber in the rotation. Zach Eflin was signed to a three-year, $40MM deal. When compared to some of the other free agent deals signed around the league, it might not seem that significant. However, that was the only major league deal that the Rays gave out this winter, and the $40MM guarantee is the largest they’ve given to a free agent in the history of the franchise.

Eflin, 29 in April, has spent his entire big league career thus far with the Phillies, serving as a solid mid-rotation option. Over the past five years, he’s tossed 531 2/3 innings with a 4.16 ERA. It’s possible that he could find another gear, as he’s kept his FIP, SIERA and xERA under 4.00 in each of the past three seasons. The Rays have shown a penchant for helping players maximize their potential and maybe they’ve found a solid candidate here, showing their faith with that huge commitment, relative to their standards.

But it’s not without risks as Eflin has continually battled knee issues and only once topped 130 innings in a major league season, which was back in 2019. In 2017, a then 22-year-old Eflin admitted to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he’d already been dealing with knee pain for 10-12 years. He felt good after surgery at that time but had to go under the knife again in 2021 and also missed a couple months with knee issues last year. That doesn’t exactly paint a picture of Eflin being a solid bet for the largest free agent investment the club’s ever made, but there were fairly similar concerns around Kluber a year ago. Perhaps the Rays have a plan in mind for how to keep Eflin healthy and effective all year long.

The club was also connected in rumors to other players this offseason, including big names like Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Sean Murphy. Ultimately, none of those came to fruition, leaving the main storylines in Tampa as the Eflin signing and the batch of trades. Most of the players that came back in those deals are still young and a ways off from contributing. That means the 2023 club will be fairly reliant on better health from the incumbent players, in addition to the club’s annual tradition of funneling minor leaguers onto the major league roster.

Eflin will jump into a rotation that will be without Baz for much or perhaps all of the season, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. Glasnow, who missed almost all of 2022 from his own Tommy John recovery, was hoping for a fully healthy season here in 2023. He’s currently dealing with an oblique strain that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks, but he should be able to take a spot once he gets past that. With Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs still in the mix, the rotation seems to be in decent shape. While Glasnow is out, they might have to do some of their bullpen games or opener days, but they also have depth options in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming. Prospect Taj Bradley could launch himself into the mix at some point as well, having reached Triple-A last year.

On the position player side, much of the same crew from last year will be back, despite the aforementioned roster shuffling. With Choi gone, first base could perhaps be manned by Yandy Díaz, freeing up the hot corner for Isaac Paredes, though Díaz could still see some time at third going forward. First base could also be manned by Harold Ramírez at times, with he and Diaz perhaps taking turns as the designated hitter. In the middle infield, the club will be hoping for better health from both Franco and Lowe, who were limited by injuries to 83 and 65 games last year, respectively.

In the outfield, the post-Kiermaier era will start with Jose Siri taking over in center. He didn’t hit much last year but was great in the field and on the base paths. He’s got a solid floor and could be a great contributor if he can cut down on the strikeouts. That’s a big “if” though, since he’s gone down on strikes in 33.4% of his plate appearances thus far, with fairly similar rates in Triple-A and Double-A. Since he turns 28 in July, it remains to be seen how much more rope the Rays will give him to correct that issue.

Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot are still around and should be flanking Siri out on the turf. Both the infield and the outfield will be bolstered by depth options who could force their way into more playing time as the season goes along. Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Luke Raley, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján and Josh Lowe are all on the 40-man roster and can all play multiple positions. Depending on health and performance, they all could get slotted in somewhere at some point. Mead seems to be particularly highly valued by the club, as they have reportedly been discussing an extension despite the fact that he’s yet to make his major league debut. Brujan used to be in that position, as he was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has slashed a dismal .150/.207/.231 in his first 188 MLB plate appearances.

The club had at least some desire to upgrade behind the plate since they were interested in Murphy, but they didn’t ultimately make a move. This is one area of the roster where the club feels a bit vulnerable, with Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Mejía and René Pinto the three backstops on the roster. Bethancourt had a solid season in 2022, but that was his first major league action since 2017, as he had been in the minors and the KBO in the interim. Mejia was solid in 2021 but disappointed last year, both at the plate and behind it. Pinto has just 25 games in the majors but struck out in 42.2% of his plate appearances in that time.

In the bullpen, despite losing Feyereisen, Raley and others, they still have an enviable collection of intriguing arms. It includes Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Jalen Beeks, Garrett Cleavinger and more. Given the club’s ability to produce quality relievers seemingly at will, a few surprising names could jump into this mix later in the summer.

Turning to the long-term picture, the Rays added some cost certainty by agreeing to extensions with three players. Springs, Fairbanks and Diaz all put pen to paper this winter, locking in some future earnings. In exchange for that financial security, each of them pushed back their respective trips to free agency. Including the club options that the Rays now have on all three players, Fairbanks relinquished one free agent season, Diaz two, and Springs three. Those extensions theoretically give the club a bit more continuity in the years to come, but that might not necessarily be the case. An extension doesn’t mean a trade is off the table. Snell was extended going into 2019 but was traded to the Padres less than two years later.

Another piece of the long-term picture that needs to come into focus is the stadium. Both the club and the league have been open about the fact that an upgrade is needed over Tropicana Field. The team’s lease on the Trop goes through 2027, which puts some pressure to get solutions in place. The latest updates are that the mayor of St. Petersburg has given his support to the proposed redevelopment plan. The next step is that city council needs to approve a term sheet, which is currently being negotiated. Once it’s determined what funding commitments will come from the city, Pinellas County and the Rays, it’s possible the term sheet could be agreed upon by this summer. Making progress on this front will have implications not just for the Rays but for the league as well, as commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly stated that expanding beyond the current 30 major league teams won’t happen until both the Rays and A’s find solutions for their respective stadium situations.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Rays offseason review, we hosted a Rays-focused chat on March 9. You can click here to read the transcript.

Tony Gonsolin’s Availability For Opening Day In Question

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Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin suffered a left ankle sprain during a pitcher-fielding practice on Monday. The club has downplayed the injury’s longer-term severity, but manager Dave Roberts indicated this evening the right-hander wasn’t in great position for Opening Day (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

On a positive note, Roberts noted that x-rays have come back negative. However, Gonsolin’s ankle is still swollen and the manager said he “doesn’t feel good” about the All-Star hurler being ready for the start of the season. Gonsolin isn’t expected to throw again for several days, and Harris notes that it’s not out of the question he could eventually go for an MRI.

Gonsolin has spent some time on the injured list in each of the past two seasons. He has battled shoulder and forearm concerns. The ankle issue is obviously less worrisome than arm issues, although it could keep him out of action early in the year. Gonsolin has never topped 24 MLB starts in a season, with last year’s 130 1/3 innings representing a career best.

The St. Mary’s product had an excellent year on a rate basis, however. He posted a 2.14 ERA, striking out an above-average 23.9% of opposing hitters while walking only 7% of opponents. Gonsolin picked up swinging strikes on a strong 12.3% of his offerings and did a solid job avoiding hard contact.

If he’s forced to start the season on the injured list, the Dodgers will have to find a short-term rotation replacement, as they’re scheduled for just one off day within the schedule’s first two weeks. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May look to be established in the top four spots. Right-handers Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson are all on the 40-man roster. Pepiot would seem to have the upper hand among that group if L.A. needed a couple starts in Gonsolin’s stead early in the year.

View The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB All-Star Pitcher Dan Haren

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Dan Haren joined MLBTR readers for a chat Wednesday evening.  Click here to view the transcript.  If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to do a chat here, contact us!

Dan Haren was drafted in the second round in 2001 by the Cardinals out of Pepperdine.  He reached the Majors in June of 2003, throwing a quality start against Barry Bonds and the Giants.

Haren spent the bulk of the following season at Triple-A, rejoining the big league club late in the season and moving in and out of the rotation.  He wound up pitching in five games during the postseason that year, including two scoreless outings in the World Series.

After the ’04 season, the Cardinals traded Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero to the A’s for Mark Mulder.  Haren quickly became a horse in Oakland’s rotation, and by the end of his first season with the A’s he signed a four-year extension covering his arbitration years worth $12.65MM.  From 2005-07 with the A’s, Haren made 34 starts each year and totaled 662 2/3 innings.  The 2006 A’s won the AL West and made it to the ALCS, with Haren making two postseason starts and winning one of them.

In 2007, Haren stepped into the leadership void left by Barry Zito’s departure, getting the Opening Day nod and starting for the AL All-Star team.  However, after that season the A’s and GM Billy Beane went into a rebuild, shipping Haren to the Diamondbacks for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, and Greg Smith.  Haren joined a D-backs rotation that already had Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson.

2008 was another excellent All-Star season for Haren, in which he led the NL in strikeout to walk ratio.  Before that season ended, Haren signed a new extension with Arizona potentially running through 2013.  His excellence continued in ’09, as Haren finished fifth in the Cy Young voting and again led the league in strikeout to walk ratio.

However, at the 2010 trade deadline, Haren was on the move in a blockbuster trade for the third time in his career.  This time he was headed to the Angels for Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, and Tyler Skaggs.  He continued his dominance in 2011, leading the league in strikeout to walk ratio yet again and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.

After the 2012 season, Haren was nearly traded to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol, but Chicago balked and the Angels declined his club option.  Reaching free agency for the first time in his career, MLBTR ranked Haren eighth on our top 50 list.  He inked a one-year deal with the Nationals that winter.  After a difficult season in D.C. (by his lofty standards), Haren landed closer to home with another one-year deal, this time with the Dodgers.  Upon reaching 180 innings for the Dodgers, a $10MM player option vested for 2015, and Haren exercised it.

Another season with the Dodgers was not in the cards for Haren, however, and he landed with the Marlins as part of blockbuster trade number four.  That was hardly Haren’s preference, but the Marlins hung onto him until they shipped him to the Cubs at the ’15 trade deadline.  Rather than explore free agency again, Haren chose to hang up his cleats at the age of 35.

Over the seven-year span from 2005-11, Haren was one of the very best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.  His WAR total of 33.2 during that time ranked fourth in baseball, and his innings total ranked second.  Though he typically topped out around 92 miles per hour in his prime, Haren was a master of command and an old-school horse.  He pitched at least 216 innings in each of those seven seasons, and his total of 1,581 1/3 was topped only by CC Sabathia.  Haren finished his career with three All-Star appearances, two top-seven Cy Young finishes, 153 wins, and a 3.75 ERA.

In recent years, Haren has served as a “pitching strategist” for the Diamondbacks, in which he “provides advance scouting reports and guidance to the club’s pitchers to maximize results on the mound.”  You can find him on Twitter @ithrow88.  That’s exactly what we did, and Dan graciously accepted our invitation to chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to join in!

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions

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The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.

Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.

The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.

The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”

Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.

“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”

Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.

Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.

Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.

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