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Eduardo Rodriguez Opts Out Of Tigers Contract

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Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is returning to free agency, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (X link) reports that Rodriguez has opted out of the last three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers.

Today was the deadline for E-Rod to enact his opt-out clause, and it has long seemed like the southpaw would indeed take the opportunity to again test the market.  Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in early October that the club was first waiting on Rodriguez’s opt-out decision before discussing an extension, yet MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported yesterday that the two sides were having some level of talks “about potentially restructuring his contract.”

The nature of these discussions might not be known now that Rodriguez has opted out, though the Tigers still hold exclusive negotiating rights with the lefty until Monday.  It would seem like a longshot if a new deal did come together with Rodriguez so close to being able to speak with other teams, yet he did express his love of playing in Detroit in August after E-Rod used his 10-team no-trade clause to reject a proposed deal to the Dodgers.

Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, as the Tigers splurged on both E-Rod and Javier Baez as a way of signalling that the team was ready to contend after a rebuilding period.  Instead, the Tigers stumbled to a 66-96 record in 2022, due to a punchless offense and a multitude of pitching injuries.  Rodriguez was hit by the injury bug in the form of a ribcage sprain, but his extended absence during the middle of the 2022 campaign was due to a family-related personal matter.  The Tigers put Rodriguez on the restricted list for most of that absence, and he ended up tossing only 91 innings (with a 4.05 ERA).

A pulley rupture in his left index finger put E-Rod on the injured list for a little over five weeks this season, but by and large, 2023 was a more normal year for the left-hander.  Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 152 2/3 innings, with a less-flattering 4.26 SIERA and a set of Statcast metrics that generally landed either slightly above or slightly below league averages.

It makes for an interesting comparison to Rodriguez’s last foray into free agency, when he landed that $77MM deal on the strength of some good underlying metrics, even though he had a 4.74 ERA over 157 2/3 frames for the Red Sox in 2021.  Without a qualifying offer impacting his market this time around, Rodriguez shouldn’t have much issue topping three years and $49MM, and another five-year pact seems very plausible since he doesn’t turn 31 until April.

However, geography might be a bit of a limiting factor for Rodriguez.  Staying close to his family on the East Coast was reportedly a reason E-Rod vetoed the trade to the Dodgers, so if he wasn’t willing to head west for just the remainder of the 2023 season, it’s probably not too likely that he’d join a team in the western U.S. for a longer term.  These feelings could potentially change once Rodriguez and his representatives fully gauge the market, yet for now, it would appear as though clubs in the east or more central (like Detroit) parts of the baseball world might have an advantage.

Hector Neris Declines Player Option With Astros

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Right-hander Hector Neris will test free agency after declining his player option for the 2024 season, MLB Trade Rumors has learned.  Neris passed a postseason physical, which was the final step in turning the Astros’ $8.5MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) for 2024 into a player option.  The terms of Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal with Houston allowed that club option to vest into a player option if Neris made at least 110 appearances over the 2022-23 seasons, and the righty easily passed that benchmark with 141 games pitched.

Neris turned 34 back in June, yet doesn’t appear to be slowing down at all, considering that he posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings in 2023.  An 11.4% walk rate is a red flag, yet most of Neris’ other metrics were well above average, and he was one of baseball’s best at limiting hard contact.  A 3.89 SIERA might be a better reflection of Neris’ 2023 performance given his walk rate and his .219 BABIP, yet in some sense, Neris’ luck was evening out after a 2022 season that saw him post a 3.72 ERA but a 2.70 SIERA.

The combined result is a 2.69 ERA/3.29 SIERA over Neris’ two seasons in an Astros uniform, as well as 56 holds in a setup role in front of closer Ryan Pressly.  With Rafael Montero, Phil Maton, and Bryan Abreu also contributing to a strong late-game mix, Neris was routinely called upon to shut down batters in the seventh or eighth inning, with generally impressive results.  In addition to his regular-season work, Neris also had a 1.50 ERA over six innings and eight appearances during the 2022 playoffs, helping the Astros win the World Series.

There wasn’t much suspense that Neris would test the market again, as he should be able to land another multi-year deal coming off of this strong performance.  The 10-year MLB veteran formerly worked as the Phillies’ closer early in his career, so he might have some extra appeal to a team that could use at least a backup option for save situations, even if Neris is likely going to be targeted as a setup man by most of his suitors.  Neris looks to be one of the better options available in a typically crowded bullpen market, and some options are already off the board since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson.

Reds Decline Club Options On Joey Votto, Curt Casali

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The Reds announced that they have declined their club options on first baseman Joey Votto and catcher Curt Casali for the 2024 season.  Votto will receive a $7MM buyout instead of the $20MM he would’ve received in 2024 salary, while Casali will receive a $750K buyout since the Reds turned down their end of a $4MM mutual option.

President of baseball options Nick Krall released a statement in regards to Votto, in a nod to the longtime star’s status in team history: “For 17 seasons, Joey has been the heart of Reds baseball as a Most Valuable Player, All-Star and respected clubhouse leader.  His contributions to our team and his extraordinary generosity toward those in need, throughout our region and beyond, cannot be measured.  At this point of the offseason, based on our current roster and projected plans for 2024, as an organization we cannot commit to the playing time Joey deserves.  He forever will be part of the Reds’ family, and at the appropriate time we will thank and honor him as one of the greatest baseball players of this or any generation.”

A second-round pick for the Reds in the 2002 draft, Votto has spent his entire pro career in the Cincinnati organization, amassing an outstanding resume that includes six All-Star nods and the 2010 NL MVP Award.  Votto’s emergence as a superstar inspired the Reds to sign the first baseman to what is still the largest contract in franchise history — a ten-year, $225MM extension covering the 2014-23 seasons, with that $20MM club option attached for 2024.

As Votto aged and his performance started to dip, it was generally expected that the Reds would buy out the option year, particularly as the team started to cut costs in the wake of the pandemic and entered another mini-rebuild phase.  Votto did return to form with an excellent 2021 season, but shoulder problems impacted his performance and kept him off the field for large portions of both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, as Votto has played in only 156 of a possible 324 games over the last two years.

The Reds’ surplus of young and talented position players also left Votto in something of a crunch for playing time.  Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand might already have the first base and DH positions spoken for in 2024, and if Steer is used at third base or in the corner outfield, Cincinnati might need that open DH spot to find at-bats for any of Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Tyler Stephenson, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, or Will Benson when those players aren’t in the field.

This roster depth was probably as much of an impediment to a Votto return as the $13MM difference in salary.  Re-signing Votto to a less-expensive contract might not be in the cards for the Reds given how Krall’s statement seemed to carry an air of finality about Votto’s spectacular tenure with the team.  The 40-year-old Votto had floated the idea of retirement in the past, but he stated last month that he wants to play in “at least” the 2024 season and possibly beyond.

Despite Votto’s age, injury history, and modest (95 wRC+) production over the last two seasons, it seems likely that he’ll get that chance to continue his career.  Votto has a great reputation as a clubhouse mentor, and several teams in need of DH or first base help could be interested in seeing what the veteran has left to contribute on the field.  There has already been speculation in Votto’s hometown of Toronto that the Blue Jays might view Votto as a replacement for another left-handed hitting first baseman/DH in Brandon Belt, who is entering free agency.

Casali signed a one-year deal worth $3.25MM in guaranteed money last winter, as the Reds bolstered their catching ranks beyond Stephenson and Luke Maile.  The team’s idea was to give Stephenson a good chunk of time at first base and DH in order to keep him healthy, with Casali and Maile picking up that additional slack behind the plate.  The experiment didn’t really pan out, as Stephenson had an underwhelming year at the plate and Casali didn’t play after July 18 due to a foot contusion that wound up ending his season.

Casali (who turns 35 this week) had only a .490 OPS over 96 plate appearances in 2023.  A veteran of 10 MLB seasons, Casali will enter free agency looking to catch on another team, though he’ll very likely have to settle for a minor league pact.

Marcus Stroman Opts Out Of Deal With Cubs

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Marcus Stroman has enacted the opt-out clause in his contract and will now become a free agent, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (X link).  Stroman’s three-year, $71MM deal with the Cubs from the 2021-22 offseason allowed Stroman to opt out of the final year of that contract, and the right-hander will be leaving $21MM on the table in search of a larger and more lucrative deal this winter.

Stroman faced one of the more interesting option decisions of any player on the market, as his 2023 campaign was a tale of two seasons.  In the first half, Stroman had a 2.96 ERA over 112 2/3 innings and received an All-Star nod for his efforts.  In the second half, Stroman had an 8.63 ERA over only 24 innings, as he missed about six weeks on the injured list.  Initially sidelined with hip inflammation, Stroman was revealed to have a right rib cartilage fracture, which delayed his IL stint beyond what seemed like a fairly minimal 15-day absence.  While the righty was able to make it back for the Cubs’ late-season playoff push, Stroman was limited to bullpen duty and shortened starts, as Chicago ended up missing the postseason.

Altogether, Stroman delivered a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, with his usual outstanding (57.1%) grounder rate and a below-average (20.7%) strikeout rate.  Good control has also been part of Stroman’s repertoire, but his 9% walk rate in 2023 was both the highest of his career and only in the 40th percentile of all pitchers.  It is fair to say that Stroman’s injuries contributed to his struggles over the season’s last three months, though it also marks his second straight year with a notable injury absence.  Between shoulder inflammation and a brief stint on the COVID-related IL, Stroman threw only 138 2/3 innings in 2022, barely above his 2023 total.

While not the ideal platform into free agency for a pitcher entering his age-33, Stroman and his reps at Roc Nation Sports should certainly be able to find a multi-year pact on the open market, worth well above the $21MM Stroman would’ve received from the Cubs.  Stroman’s groundball-heavy approach may not quite fit the preferred mold for some front offices, yet it’s hard to argue with results, as Stroman has posted generally good results over his nine MLB seasons.  At his best, Stroman has looked like a front-of-the-rotation star, with two All-Star nods on his resume and a seventh-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting when he was a member of the Blue Jays in 2017.

Stroman will head into free agency without having to worry about a qualifying offer, as Stroman previously received (and accepted) a QO from the Mets following the 2020 season.  The lack of draft compensation attached to his services could give Stroman a leg up on other starters on the market, and it also means that the Cubs won’t receive anything in return should Stroman sign with another team.

The Cubs reportedly had some degree of extension talks with Stroman this past spring, through the right-hander’s comments in June indicated that those negotiations were minimal at best.  “Up until now, there’s been nothing from their side.  No offers, no talks, really, at all,” Stroman said.  Though Stroman made it clear that he wanted to stay in Chicago, the lack of contract discussions apparently lasted through the summer, as it seemed for much of the season that the Cubs were leaning towards trading Stroman at the deadline.  However, Stroman’s second-half struggles and the Cubs’ own improvement and surge into the playoff race changed those plans, even if the irony was that Stroman wasn’t able to contribute much to the pennant race.

As recently as two weeks ago, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney wrote that Stroman and Kyle Hendricks were “expected” to return to Wrigleyville in 2024, with Stroman passing on his opt-out and the Cubs exercising Hendricks’ $16MM club option.  There hasn’t yet been word on Hendricks’ option, though the two sides are reportedly discussing a contract extension that might overwrite the option entirely.  Speculatively, this situation might’ve impacted Stroman’s choice, as if he felt the Cubs were prioritizing Hendricks in their long-term plans, Stroman might’ve decided to seek out a longer-term deal with another team now, rather than spend one final year in Chicago.  Stroman might’ve faced more trade buzz if the Cubs weren’t in contention, or another injury-marred season might’ve more fully hampered his free agent case in the 2024-25 offseason.

A reunion between Stroman and the Cubs probably shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, though Chicago has other pitching options.  Assuming Hendricks stays in some capacity, the rotation lines up as Justin Steele, Hendricks, Jameson Taillon as the top three starters, and Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the last two spots.  Drew Smyly could also be involved if he doesn’t opt out of the final year (and $11MM) of his contract.  It stands to reason that the Cubs will look to augment this group with at least one veteran arm, whether Stroman or another free agent or trade chip.

Phillies Decline Option On Scott Kingery

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TODAY: Kingery is still part of the Phillies organization despite the declined option, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber.  Kingery is still under team control on the initial minor league contract that he signed after he was first drafted, though it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies might release him.

NOVEMBER 3: The Phillies announced they’ve declined their option on second baseman Scott Kingery. He’ll collect a $1MM buyout in lieu of a $13MM salary.

This was the most straightforward option call for any team this fall. Kingery spent the entire 2023 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley after being outrighted from the 40-man roster in June 2022. He has played in only 16 MLB games since the start of the ’21 season.

A former second-round draftee, Kingery developed into a highly-regarded prospect. He signed a $24MM guarantee in Spring Training of 2018, shortly before making his MLB debut. The deal didn’t work at all for Philadelphia, as Kingery hasn’t consistently hit at the highest level. He owns a .229/.280/.387 line over 325 big league contests.

The Arizona product hit .244/.325/.400 in 466 plate appearances with Lehigh Valley this past season. He stole 24 bases and hit 13 home runs while striking out at a lofty 29% clip. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s possible he finds a minor league deal elsewhere. Kingery turns 30 in April.

Front Office Notes: Astros, White Sox, Janish, Nationals

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The Astros announced a series of internal promotions earlier this week, most notably the promotion of Gavin Dickey to an assistant general manager position.  Dickey is a longtime member of the Astros’ staff, working in numerous jobs since his initial hiring as a scout in 2011.  Most recently, he worked as a special assistant to GM Dana Brown during the 2023 season.  The 40-year-old Dickey moved right into scouting on the heels of his playing career, which consisted of six seasons in independent ball and in the Mariners’ and Braves’ farm systems from 2006-11.

Dickey joins Andrew Ball and Charles Cook as Houston’s assistant GMs, after the team parted ways with former assistant GM Bill Firkus last month.  This isn’t to say that Dickey will necessarily be taking Firkus’ exact role, as the specific duties of an assistant GM vary greatly from club to club and executive to executive, usually based on each individual’s areas of expertise.

More on some other front office moves from around baseball….

  • The White Sox announced that Paul Janish has been hired as their new director of player development.  Janish is a veteran of nine Major League seasons with the Reds, Braves, and Orioles from 2008-17, and since retirement has worked as a coach with Rice University.  This will be the first non-playing role in pro ball for the 41-year-old Janish, who will be taking over the position previously held by Chris Getz before Getz was named Chicago’s new general manager in August.
  • The Nationals promoted Eddie Longosz to the role of VP/assistant general manager of player development and administration.  The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reported earlier this week that Longosz would be taking over the Nats’ player development department, which is the next step up the ladder for a longtime employee who has been with the Nationals since 2010.  As Golden notes, much of the Nationals’ focus over the last couple of months has been a revamp of their front office, with several employees on the way out (like De Jon Watson, Longosz’s predecessor as farm director) and a couple of longer-term staffers like Longosz moving into larger roles.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Two offseasons of aggressive spending paid off as handsomely as possible for the Rangers, who captured the franchise’s first World Series championship.  With a repeat now possible, will the ownership and the front office continue to break the bank?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $171.25MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)
Total future commitments: $636.083MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Arguably baseball’s best lineup will return almost fully intact in 2024.  Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter form a tremendous core of everyday players, and this entire group is controlled through at least the 2026 season.  Considering that Seager spent six weeks on the injured list and that the younger players have higher ceilings, it is quite possible that the Rangers will be even better offensively, which is a scary proposition for opposing pitchers.

And, the lineup potential doesn’t stop there.  Ezequiel Duran had some ups and downs during his sophomore season, but Duran finished 2023 with above-average (107 wRC+) offense and an ability to at least passably handle multiple defensive positions, making him a valuable utility piece going forward.  Top prospect Wyatt Langford already advanced to Triple-A within a few months of being the fourth overall pick of the 2023 draft, so a Major League debut seems in the cards for next season.  Sam Huff and Josh H. Smith were well-regarded prospects in their own right, and still have breakout potential if they can find more regular playing time.

It adds up to such a bevy of options that the Rangers could decide to simply part ways with some of their veteran free agents.  Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski performed capably well sharing time with Duran in left field last season, but Carter’s emergence means that that revolving door in left field has been now been closed.  Grossman’s ability to mash left-handed pitching makes him a nice compliment to the left-handed hitting Carter, though Texas might see Duran as a suitable in-house candidate as a part-time right-handed bat.

From Grossman’s own perspective, he might prefer joining a team with a clearer path to regular playing time, even if the idea of re-upping with the World Series champs has some natural appeal.  If Grossman does leave, Jankowski comes at a cheaper price tag, and is more of a traditional backup outfielder given Jankowski’s ability to play all three positions on the grass.  That said, Carter and Garcia can also fill in as a center fielder when Taveras is out of the lineup, and Langford’s impending arrival could give Carter more of a role in center field anyway down the road.

Signing some kind of veteran bench option seems like a logical move for Texas, whether that veteran is a familiar face like Grossman or Jankowski, or a newcomer eager to play for a contender.  As tremendous as Carter looked throughout September and during the playoffs, some regression is probably inevitable once opposing pitchers get a book on the outfield phenom.  Injuries and a lack of performance made Brad Miller a non-factor for most of 2023, so the Rangers could look to add a Miller-type of player that can provide versatility in the infield as well as the outfield.

The backup catching role will also have to be resolved.  Huff’s glovework is still a question mark, so Texas could opt to re-sign Austin Hedges as a pure defensive specialist behind everyday starter Heim.  Or, the Rangers could look to entirely bring the band back together by re-signing Mitch Garver and reinstalling him into the primary DH/backup catcher role.

This usage worked so well in 2023 that reuniting with Garver is surely tempting for the Rangers.  It is possible Garver might even accept the qualifying offer if issued, as he’d land a $20.325MM payday for the 2024 season and return to a comfortable environment.  On the other hand, Garver is also the top free agent catcher on the market, so a longer-term contract elsewhere would certainly seem to be on the table.  Garver’s injury history might preclude him from being a true full-time catcher, though he could pursue a DH/catcher role similar to the one he held in Texas.

Qualifying offers must be issued by November 6, and that short timeframe adds another wrinkle to how the Rangers might approach Garver.  If Garver did receive a QO and he accepted, that would essentially solidify the Rangers’ plans for the DH spot heading into 2024.  On the one hand, that’s a bit of important winter business handled early….except that this particular offseason happens to have a certain generational talent available who needs a designated hitter role.

Would anyone be surprised if Shohei Ohtani was wearing a Rangers uniform on Opening Day?  Given how owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson have boosted the club’s payroll over the last two seasons, another splurge to land Ohtani can’t be ruled out, even if Ohtani’s contract tops the $500MM mark.  Texas has been on Ohtani’s radar before, as due to the Rangers’ and Cubs’ association with Yu Darvish, Texas and Chicago were the only two non-West Coast teams on Ohtani’s short list when he first came to North American baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 offseason, and it isn’t known if geography is necessarily a factor in Ohtani’s eventual decision.  But, the Rangers can financially compete with anyone and they just won a championship, so one would imagine they’d be an attractive destination given Ohtani’s stated desire to win.  Technically, signing Ohtani might be a luxury for a team that already might be facing a slight logjam of too many up-and-coming players for too few positions, yet Ohtani is such a special player that Texas would be happy to figure out a talent surplus after the fact.

Since the Rangers exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money in order to sign Ohtani or any other free agent who rejects a qualifying offer.  This probably isn’t going to be a huge roadblock to the Rangers’ offseason plans, nor is the club likely to shy away from crossing the $237MM tax threshold again in 2024.  The Rangers were willing to give up multiple draft picks to sign qualified free agents like Seager, Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the last two offseasons, but now facing the steeper tax penalty, it is possible the team ramps down slightly and only pursues maybe one QO-rejecting free agent.

For as much money as Texas has spent in the last two years, GM Chris Young is still working with a good deal of financial flexibility.  Seager, Semien, and deGrom alone take up a hefty chunk of the payroll, but they are also the only three players signed beyond the 2025 season.  This gives Young some freedom to look into other long-term deals, whether that translates as possible extensions (there’s merit to locking up Jung or Carter right now, for instance) or spending more money to solidify the pitching staff.

Though the Rangers just won a championship with more than a few question marks on the pitching front, the rotation and bullpen figure to be the major offseason target areas.  DeGrom is aiming to return in August 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June, but with that rehab situation still very fluid, the Rangers can count on a starting staff of Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning for the time being.

Cody Bradford and Owen White represent in-house depth options, and Andrew Heaney could just remain as the fifth starter if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause.  Heaney would be leaving $13MM on the table if he did choose to opt out, and MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored the pros and cons Heaney and his representatives are undoubtedly weighing as they consider the left-hander’s next step.

Even if Heaney did remain, the Rangers are still going to be looking to add pitching.  Dunning or Heaney both pitched well enough to deserve rotation spots under normal circumstances, yet either could be used in the bullpen or in some type of unofficial sixth starter role.  Having extra pitching on hand is a logical move for depth purposes, especially considering Eovaldi’s past injury history, and the 39-year-old Scherzer battling through a number of nagging injuries in 2023.

Jordan Montgomery is the obvious name on the Rangers’ pitching wishlist, as the southpaw was such a key figure in the club’s title run after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.  Montgomery’s performance only elevated his free agent price tag, and since he is ineligible for the qualifying offer, he is all the more attractive to any teams wary of surrendering draft picks.  Texas will be vying against several other teams for Montgomery’s services, but again, the Rangers have the money, the championship pedigree, and some built-in familiarity with Montgomery that might make them the favorite in this bidding war.

Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery removes him as a pitching option for 2024, yet he could slide into an open spot in 2025 since Scherzer, Heaney, and possibly Eovaldi could all be free agents next offseason.  Looking at other top pitchers on the market, the Rangers have been scouting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or Sonny Gray could all be targets, even if those three will undoubtedly come with QO-attached draft penalties attached.  Local product Clayton Kershaw has been on the Rangers’ radar for the last two offseasons, but the news that Kershaw will be out until at least next summer due to shoulder surgery will complicate a pursuit, beyond whether or not Kershaw would leave the Dodgers.

Though the Rangers’ relief corps was more stable during the playoffs, the bullpen’s volatility during the regular season almost cost Texas a postseason berth altogether.  Jose Leclerc was the steadiest member of the pen, and his club option is a lock to be exercised as Leclerc re-established himself as the closer throughout the playoffs.  Will Smith acted as closer for much of 2023 and the Rangers will likely try to re-sign the veteran, both due to his steady results and the unofficial league rule that Smith’s team always wins the World Series.

Josh Sborz and Brock Burke will return, and Dunning, Heaney, or Bradford could again be part of the relief mix depending on what happens in the rotation.  Re-signing Martin Perez might be another option on this front, if Perez is willing to pitch primarily in a relief role or as a swingman at best.  But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas bring in three or four more relief options, ranging from low-cost veterans on minor league deals or the very top of the market.

As such, Josh Hader figures to be part of the offseason conversation in Arlington.  Signing the free agent market’s top closer would instantly make the bullpen a lot more formidable, and solve perhaps the only weak link on the roster.  Hader is another free agent who will reject a qualifying offer, which is another consideration for the Rangers to make as they also weigh whether or not it is wiser to splurge on Hader, or to devote their resources to multiple relievers.  The latter strategy carries its own set of risks, as the reliever class has already started to thin out since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before they hit the open market.

For all of this focus on free agency, we shouldn’t at all ignore the possibility that the Rangers might use the trade market for upgrades, especially after Young’s bold deadline moves to land Montgomery and Scherzer.  The aforementioned semi-surplus of position players could be solved in part by moving some of the younger talent in a trade.  It is fair to say that Carter and Langford are more than untouchable, yet it wouldn’t be a shock to see Duran, Smith, or Huff dealt.  Dipping further into the minors, infield prospects like Justin Foscue or longer-term prospects like Sebastian Walcott or Cameron Cauley could be trade chips, as Seager, Semien, and Jung look to have the infield locked down for the foreseeable future.

All manner of possibilities are open to the Rangers this winter, and Young’s front office can also operate with a bit of unique freedom in the sense that they’re already triumphed.  With one trophy already secured and so much talent in place, the next challenge for Young will be figuring out how to set up the 2023 champions into a potential dynasty.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Rangers-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Clayton Kershaw Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; Hoping For Summer Return

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Left-hander Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent a surgical procedure this morning to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. He says that he is “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.”

Kershaw, 35, had a strange campaign in 2023. He had made 16 starts through the end of June with typically strong results, holding an ERA of 2.55 at that time. He was placed on the injured list in early July due to some shoulder soreness. It didn’t seem especially concerning at that time, with the hope seeming to be that the All-Star break would allow him to miss just one or two turns through the rotation.

However, a couple of weeks later, there seemed to be some confusion around the issue. He underwent an MRI in the middle of July and wasn’t activated from the IL, although he wasn’t in any pain. “I feel completely fine. The shoulder feels good,” Kershaw said at the time. “I’ve just been told it has to rest. It’s a weird deal. I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest. It’s just weird, honestly. I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”

He was eventually activated in early August, with more confusion to come. His results continued to be strong, as he posted an ERA of 2.23 in his final eight starts of the year. But he was clearly working with diminished stuff. While he averaged above 91 MPH on his fastball prior to that IL stint, it was down to 90.2 MPH in August and 88.6 MPH in September. His slider also lost a few ticks as the season wore on. Although he was able to continue pitching well in the regular season, the wheels finally came off in the playoffs. Kershaw was lit up in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs while only recording one out.

It seems Kershaw finally got some answers from the medical community and went under the knife today. While solving the mystery around his ailment provides some clarity, it seems there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead. This appears to be the first time the phrase “gleno-humeral” has appeared on the pages of MLBTR, suggesting this isn’t a particularly common procedure to be working back from. Kershaw has also had plenty of other ailments in the recent parts of his career. His 131 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 were the most he’s logged since 2019, spending time on the IL in recent years due to back stiffness, left elbow inflammation, left forearm discomfort, right SI joint inflammation, low back pain and the recent shoulder soreness.

Even without the health issues, Kershaw has gone into the past two offseasons with an uncertain path forward. It was seen by many that he was deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. In both cases, he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal, with a $17MM salary in 2022 and $20MM this past year. Last month, he again expressed uncertainty about his future going into free agency once more.

The Dodgers opted against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer in those two years, though he would have deserved one based on his performance. As a sign of respect to the long-tenured player, they afforded him the freedom to take his time making a decision, whereas issuing a QO would have required Kershaw accept or decline within a few days of receiving it. They were presumably planning the same course of action this winter but this surgery would seemingly take the QO off the table even if they were considering it.

More information will likely trickle out over the winter, but the fact that Kershaw is “hopeful” of returning to play in the summer suggests that it’s not a guarantee. Perhaps he will spend some time rehabbing and trying to get healthy before signing a new contract, though that’s entirely speculative.

For the Dodgers, they likely have to proceed under the assumption that they can’t count on Kershaw, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously stated they would welcome him back. Beyond the fact that he’s not officially on the team anymore, it’s not certain he will be able to rejoin them even if he were willing to do so. In addition to Kershaw, Julio Urías and Lance Lynn are now free agents, with the club declining an option on the latter today. Tony Gonsolin could miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, while Dustin May’s flexor tendon surgery should keep him out for at least the first half of 2024.

That leaves the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from his own TJS, in the top spot. He is followed by guys with very limited experience, such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough, though he might wind up non-tendered, the same way the Rays cut him loose a year ago.

Though the Kershaw news may complicate things, the Dodgers do have plenty of money to work with and figure to be active in all levels of free agency. The top of the market features names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, though there are plenty of other intriguing names from Sonny Gray to Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty and many more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2024 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The conclusion of the 2023 season didn’t just bring the start of the offseason. It also finalized the lottery odds for the top picks in next summer’s amateur draft (h/t to Carlos Collazo of Baseball America).

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the #1 selection. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the better odds.

The odds aren’t simply the inverse of the previous year’s standings, however. One of the CBA’s anti-tanking measures is to limit how often a team can pick within the lottery. A teams that does not receive revenue sharing payments and landed a lottery pick in one draft is prohibited from picking higher than 10th the following season. Revenue sharing recipients cannot select above 10th if they had a lottery selection in the preceding two drafts.

That rules the Nationals out from selecting any higher than 10th next year. Washington is not a revenue sharing recipient and had the #2 pick (which it used on Dylan Crews) in 2023. Last summer’s other lottery teams were the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Twins and A’s. Texas and Minnesota are ineligible for a lottery selection after making the playoffs.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).

The odds for next year’s #1 selection are as follows:

  1. A’s (50-112): 18.3%
  2. Royals (56-106): 18.3%
  3. Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
  4. White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
  5. Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
  6. Angels (73-89): 6.1%
  7. Mets (75-87): 4.3%
  8. Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
  9. Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
  10. Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
  11. Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
  12. Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
  13. Giants (79-83): 1%
  14. Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
  15. Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
  16. Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
  17. Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
  18. Mariners (88-74): 0.2%

After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The A’s will therefore pick no lower than 7th, the Royals no lower than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only be vaulted up if drawn into the top six, although they could move up marginally as teams in front of them fall based on their luxury tax status (as explained below).

The draft order for the remainder of the first round is determined by how far a team advances in the playoffs, its revenue sharing status, and its regular season record. These selections are fixed; a playoff team cannot move up via the lottery.

19. Marlins
20. Brewers
21. Rays
22. Blue Jays
23. Twins
24. Orioles
25. Dodgers
26. Braves
27. Phillies
28. Astros
29. Diamondbacks
30. Rangers

A final note: a team that exceeds the third tier of luxury penalization (set at $273MM in ’23) generally sees its top pick moved back by 10 spots. If that team lands a top six selection, then its second-highest selection is moved back by 10 spots. The Mets, Yankees and Padres are believed to have surpassed the $273MM mark. None of those teams made the playoffs, so they all have a chance — albeit a minimal one for the Padres and Yankees — at a lottery pick.

The drawing is held annually at the Winter Meetings. Collazo reports that this year’s iteration will take place on December 5 at 2:30 pm Central, but the results will be held back for two hours so MLB Network can televise them at 4:30. Baseball America published a Top 100 draft prospects list in July, with Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz leading the class. Obviously, much can change when the amateur season plays out next spring.

A’s To Select Lazaro Armenteros

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The Athletics are selecting outfielder Lazaro Armenteros onto the 40-man roster, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link). That’ll bump Oakland’s roster count to 37.

Armenteros was a high-profile amateur signee from Cuba seven years ago. The right-handed hitter was viewed at the time as a potential power-hitting regular, leading to a fair bit of hype preceding the 2016-17 international period. The A’s eventually landed Armenteros with a $3MM signing bonus.

That offensive potential has been undercut by huge strikeout tallies throughout his minor league career. Armenteros has punched out in more than 37% of his professional plate appearances. That’d be alarming for any prospect but is particularly concerning for a player whom most scouts project as a left fielder. His stock has dimmed considerably. Armenteros has twice gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft.

The 24-year-old had a generally solid season with Double-A Midland in 2023. He hit .248/.380/.464. Armenteros connected on 14 home runs while drawing walks at a massive 15.3% clip. Swing-and-miss remained an issue, though, as he punched out nearly a third of the time he stepped to the plate.

Oakland’s front office clearly remains intrigued by Armenteros’ physical tools. He has spent parts of seven seasons in the minors, meaning he would have qualified for minor league free agency on Monday if he weren’t on the 40-man roster. The A’s will keep that from happening. Armenteros has a full slate of options and would likely start next season in Triple-A if he holds the 40-man spot throughout the offseason.

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