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Year: 2023

Jim Poole Passes Away

By | at October 7, 2023 5:14pm CDT

Former big leaguer Jim Poole passed away yesterday at the age of 57. Poole, a left-handed reliever who pitched in 11 big league seasons from 1990-2000, pitched for eight MLB clubs during his career and was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, back in 2021. Beyond his big league career, Poole worked with the MLB Players’ Association for many years as a member of the union’s pension committee, and more recently served as chairman of the Major League Alumni Marketing board.

“Jim Poole left an indelible mark through the years as a teammate, friend, committed advocate for his fellow players, and, most importantly, a loving and devoted family man,” a statement from the MLBPA reads, “He was an inspiration during his playing career and a shining example of courage and grace in his fight against ALS.”

After being drafted in the ninth-round of the 1988 draft by the Dodgers out of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Poole made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1990, posting a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. In 1991, Poole briefly suited up for the Rangers but made just five appearances before joining the Orioles, with whom he’d stay from 1991-94. During his time in Baltimore, Poole posted a 2.86 ERA that was 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.65.

Poole moved on to Cleveland in 1995 and posted a 3.75 ERA in 50 1/3 innings before going on to pitch for the club in the World Series that year. After starting the 1996 season with the club, he was moved to the Giants midway through the season and stayed there for three seasons before ultimately returning to Cleveland late in the 1998 season. Though 1996 was among the best seasons of Poole’s career, with a 2.86 ERA in 50 1/3 innings of work, he struggled badly during the 1997 and ’98 seasons. He got back on his feet somewhat in 1999, posting a 4.33 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Phillies, though he struggled upon returning to Cleveland late in the year. Poole’s MLB career came to a close in 2000 after 10 2/3 innings of work split between the Tigers and Expos.

After his playing days came to an end, Poole remained active in the MLBPA and also worked as an investment manager for big league players. After being diagnosed with ALS in 2021, Poole became active in raising awareness regarding the disease. He was a board member of the nonprofit ALS Cure Project, which was founded in honor of Gretchen Piscotty, the mother of former big league outfielder Stephen Piscotty after she passed away in 2018. More recently, Poole was honored by the Orioles at Camden Yards last year on Lou Gehrig Day. Poole’s accomplishments off the field add to a resume that includes a career 4.31 ERA and 4.51 FIP in 363 big league innings during the regular season, along with a 2.45 career ERA during the postseason.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Poole’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates/colleagues.

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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Obituaries Philadelphia Phillies San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers

Dodgers, Diamondbacks Announce NLDS Rosters

By | at October 7, 2023 4:05pm CDT

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are set to play Game 1 of the NL Division Series this evening at Dodger Stadium. Left-hander Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA) is set to take the mound for LA this evening opposite right-hander Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA). The clubs both announced their 26-man rosters for the impending five-game series earlier this afternoon.

Arizona made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, swapping out right-hander Bryce Jarvis for left-hander Kyle Nelson. Jarvis, 25, posted a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, though the rookie’s peripherals were less impressive. Jarvis struck out just 13% of batters while walking 9.8% and achieved solid results thanks largely to a microscopic .162 BABIP. All that left him with a FIP of 5.03 during the regular season. Jarvis ultimately did not appear during Arizona’s two-game sweep of the Brewers.

His departure from the roster makes room for Nelson, who the Diamondbacks claimed off waivers from Cleveland prior to the 2022 season. The lefty has pitched well in 111 appearances with Arizona, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.96 FIP across 93 innings of work. That said, his work has been a touch less impressive in 2023, with a 4.18 ERA and 4.45 FIP over 56 innings.

Ineligible for the club’s NLDS roster is outfielder Jake McCarthy, who was replaced on the Wild Card Series roster by Jace Peterson before Game 1 began thanks to an oblique injury suffered during batting practice. It’s unclear if McCarthy will be able to return to the roster if Arizona makes it to the NLCS, as manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including those at ESPN) that McCarthy’s injury is a matter of weeks rather than days, putting his postseason availability into doubt even if the Diamondbacks manage a deeper run.

As for the Dodgers, the club secured a bye through the Wild Card Series with a 100-win season, second only to the Braves in the National League and well ahead of the 92-win Brewers, who were knocked out of the postseason by Arizona last round. LA sports just three surefire starting options on the roster in Kershaw, rookie Bobby Miller and veteran Trade Deadline addition Lance Lynn. That being said, righties Shelby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, and Michael Grove are all multi-inning options the team has at their disposal on the roster, though the club opted against rostering left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who posted a 4.89 ERA and 4.52 FIP across 11 appearances for the club after being acquired from the Royals ahead of the deadline back in August.

Looking at the position players on the club’s roster, second baseman Kolten Wong makes an appearance over infielder Amed Rosario. After a brutal first half of the season in Seattle, Wong has hit .300/.353/.500 in limited time (34 plate appearances) with the Dodgers, while Rosario has hit .256/.301/.408 across a much more substantial sample size of 133 trips to the plate with LA. That being said, Wong provides the club with a left-handed bat off the bench to complement fellow righty infielders Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.

The full rosters…

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

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Astros, Twins Announce ALDS Rosters

By | at October 7, 2023 12:19pm CDT

The Twins and Astros will play Game 1 of the AL Division Series today in Houston, with Bailey Ober and Justin Verlander as the starting pitchers.  Both teams revealed their full 26-man rosters for the series this afternoon.

Ober is the only new addition to the roster, as Minnesota is going with 25 of the 26 players who defeated the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series.  Joe Ryan had been slated to start Game 3 of the WCS if necessary, but he’ll now probably be held off (barring an emergency) until Game 4 of the ALDS, as Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray are set for Games 2 and 3.

Left-hander Kody Funderburk was dropped from the roster to make room for Ober, and Caleb Thielbar is the only southpaw Minnesota is bringing into the series.  Houston’s lineup is mostly full of right-handed hitters, but Thielbar might be tasked with the tall order of handling Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley for some key at-bats.  Thielbar had a 3.23 ERA over 30 2/3 innings this season, with very extreme splits after pitching right-handed and left-handed batters pretty evenly throughout his career.

Byron Buxton is still not available, and it is unclear if Buxton will be a factor even if Minnesota does advance deeper into October.  A hamstring injury and continued problems with Buxton’s surgically-repaired right knee have kept the former All-Star out of action since August 1, and limited to DH duty rather than center field this season.

Winning the AL West and winning three more games than the Twins during the regular season boosted the Astros into the American League’s #2 seed, so they’re just beginning their playoff run after a first round bye.  Keeping with the topic of left-handed relief, the Astros don’t have any lefties on the roster whatsoever except starter Framber Valdez.

However, Houston heads into the ALDS without a key right-handed reliever, as Kendall Graveman is absent from the roster due to right shoulder discomfort.  A trade deadline pickup from the White Sox, Graveman has a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings since joining the Astros, albeit with an inflated 12.8% walk rate.

Verlander and Valdez are lined up to start the first two games, and Cristian Javier will likely start Game 3, though nothing has been announced.  Any or all of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, or JP France could start what might end up as a bullpen game (or an all-hands-on-deck elimination game) in a Game 4, and Verlander should start again if the series reaches a fifth game.

The rosters…

Twins

Astros

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Braves, Phillies Announce NLDS Rosters; Kyle Wright Placed On 60-Day Injured List

By | at October 7, 2023 10:48am CDT

With Game 1 just hours away, the Phillies and Braves announced the rosters for the NL Division Series.  The announcements come with some notable transactions, as Atlanta has placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain.  In other moves, Max Fried was activated from the 15-day injured list as expected, and rookie Daysbel Hernandez was also activated from the 60-day IL and included on the NLDS roster.

The news brings a disappointing season to an end for Wright, as shoulder problems limited him to only 31 innings and  6.97 ERA.  After returning from the 60-day IL in September, Wright was hit hard in two starts before being moved into a multi-inning relief role, which would likely have been his role on a playoff roster.  With Charlie Morton‘s finger injury keeping him off the NLDS roster, the speculated plan was for the Braves to use Bryce Elder as the Game 3 starter and perhaps Wright as either a piggyback starter or more of a true reliever.  AJ Smith-Shawver made the NLDS roster and now looks to likely step into that secondary starter role for Game 3.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported some of the Braves’ roster plans yesterday, including the somewhat surprising inclusion of Hernandez.  The righty made his Major League debut on July 23, and threw 3 2/3 innings over four appearances before being sidelined due to forearm inflammation.  Eventually moved to the 60-day injured list in September, Hernandez could now make his return in the postseason spotlight.

An international signing out of Cuba in 2017, Hernandez just turned 27 last month, and he has a history of missing bats in the minor leagues.  With a 3.03 ERA over 157 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s farm system, Hernandez has a very impressive 30.35% strikeout rate, and his high-90s fastball could be an intriguing secret weapon for the Braves in the playoffs.  However, it is possible the Phillies might benefit if Hernandez can’t harness his pitches, as he has a 12.44% walk rate during his minor league career.

Philadelphia will return 25 of the players from the group who defeated the Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series.  The one change is Michael Lorenzen, as the Phillies will add an extra pitcher and remove a position player in Weston Wilson.  Lorenzen posted a 5.51 ERA over 47 1/3 innings and 11 appearances after being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadlne, and the last four of those outings came out of the bullpen due to Lorenzen’s struggles.  Barring an emergency, Lorenzen will continue to work as a reliever during the NLDS.

There are three off-days during the series, so the unusual scheduling allows for extra rest for the top-choice starters.  Ranger Suarez and Spencer Strider are today’s scheduled starter, Fried and Zack Wheeler are slated to face off in Monday’s Game 2, and Aaron Nola takes the hill for Philadelphia in Game 3 against a Braves starter TBD (likely Elder).  Suarez and Strider figure to return in a potential Game 4, and then a Wheeler/Fried rematch awaits in a possible Game 5.

The full rosters…

Phillies

Braves

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Orioles, Rangers Announce ALDS Rosters

By | at October 7, 2023 10:01am CDT

The Rangers and Orioles begin their AL Division Series matchup today in Baltimore, with Texas southpaw Andrew Heaney starting against Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish.  With Game 1 just a few hours away, the two clubs each announced their full 26-man rosters for the series.

The most prominent omission is John Means, as O’s manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner) that Means is suffering from some minor elbow soreness.  Since Means hadn’t pitched since September 7, he threw a simulated game to keep his arm fresh, but that’s when the soreness developed.  As ominous as this sounds for a pitcher who only just returned from Tommy John surgery rehab a few weeks ago, Means is expected to be available should the Orioles advance to the ALCS.

Means posted a 2.66 ERA over 23 2/3 innings in his four starts since rejoining the roster after his lengthy rehab, though a tiny .130 BABIP helped paper over more concerning number.  Means’ 6.00 SIERA was far greater than his ERA, and while not a big strikeout pitcher even pre-surgery, the left-hander had only an 11.4% strikeout rate during his return.

There’s less surprise with the Texas roster, as the Rangers are fielding basically the same group who defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series.  Left-hander Cody Bradford is the only newcomer, taking the spot of righty Grant Anderson as Texas is apparently looking for some more reinforcement against Baltimore’s array of left-handed bats.

Max Scherzer didn’t make the roster, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) writes that Scherzer isn’t ready for the start of the series, but could emerge by Game 3 in a relief role if an injury vacancy opens up on the Rangers’ roster.  Scherzer hasn’t pitched since September 12 due to a teres major strain, but though the injury was thought to be a probable season-ender, the superstar has been diligently strengthening his arm and throwing bullpen sessions.

Grayson Rodriguez will start Game 2 for the Orioles, but with Means out of action, Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer now step up as the top options to start Game 3 and a possible Game 4.  Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are lined up to start Games 2 and 3 for Texas, and two off-days in the series mean that it would likely be Montgomery against Bradish in a winner-take-all Game 5.

The full rosters…

Rangers

Orioles

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

By | at October 7, 2023 9:02am CDT

Finding a new manager is the first order of business for the Guardians, as Terry Francona is retiring after a Cooperstown-worthy managerial career.  The offseason’s first weeks will be dominated by news of the managerial search, but Cleveland will still face lingering questions about how to upgrade the lineup, and whether or not to trade Shane Bieber.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $105MM through 2028
  • Andres Gimenez, IF: $101.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
  • Myles Straw, OF: $19.25MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $15MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
  • Trevor Stephan, RP: $8.65MM through 2026 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $7.25MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $7.5MM club option with no buyout on Stephan’s 2028 season)

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $41.1MM
Total future commitments: $259.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Francona’s final season unfortunately didn’t include any more postseason magic, as the Guardians finished with a 76-86 record — just the second losing record for Francona in his last 19 seasons as a manager.  Since the Twins didn’t pull away until later in the season, the relative weakness of the AL Central left the Guardians in an odd state of quasi-contention, resulting in an unusual slate of transactions in the second half.

The pre-deadline moves of Amed Rosario (to the Dodgers), Aaron Civale (to the Rays) and Josh Bell (to the Marlins) seemed like a borderline concession, yet with Cleveland still just two games behind Minnesota at the end of August, the Guards took advantage of the Angels’ semi-fire sale on the waiver wire to claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore for the stretch run.  A 12-16 record in September and October finally did Cleveland in, and the real white flag was waived on September 19 when the Guardians themselves put Moore on waivers, and the southpaw was claimed away by the Marlins.

The sub.-500 record doesn’t mean the Guards will explore a rebuild, however.  The franchise’s state of more or less perpetual contention isn’t likely to end now that Francona is gone, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff still have plenty of talent on hand.  Superstar Jose Ramirez is still in his prime, and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) now both look like impressive young hitters, with Bo performing well in his first extended taste of MLB action as the Guardians’ regular catcher.

However, the rest of the lineup was lacking.  The Guardians finished last among all teams in home runs, 29th of 30 in slugging percentage, and 27th in both OPS and runs scored.  It was another inconsistent offense that required the pitching staff to be great to have a hope of legitimately contending, so when a number of injuries reduced the staff to being just decent, the club suffered.

For some added salt in the lineup’s wound, outfielders Nolan Jones (Rockies) and Will Benson (Reds) ended up having breakout seasons after the Guardians respectively dealt the outfielders in offseason trades.  It’s hard to say if either Jones or Benson would’ve posted similar numbers if they’d have stayed in Cleveland, though that might speak to a separate issue of why the organization couldn’t unlock that potential itself.

More offense is clearly necessary, so where can the Guardians improve?  Ramirez and the Naylors have third base, first base, and catcher covered.  Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan will hold everyday positions in 2024, even if perhaps not necessarily in their normal spots of second base and left field.  Getting Gimenez anywhere close to his 2022 numbers would be a boost unto itself for the Guardians, as after signing a seven-year, $106.5MM extension, he delivered only around league-average production this season.

If Gimenez isn’t moved across the middle infield, former top-100 prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and Tyler Freeman will all be competing for the shortstop job.  Arias is the favorite since he received most of the playing time in the latter stages of 2023, though none of the trio has hit much of anything during their (admittedly small) sample size of MLB playing time.  With these three, Jose Tena, Juan Brito, and more interesting middle-infield prospects down on the farm, Cleveland could again look to trade from this surplus for help at other positions.

This leaves the DH spot and the two non-Kwan outfield positions as the most obvious positions of need.  Kwan is one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, but if he can handle center field, Myles Straw could become a fourth outfielder and allow for the Guardians to put more pop into the corner slots.  Straw continues to be an excellent defender, but also one of the least-impactful hitters in baseball.  Among other in-house outfielders, Will Brennan didn’t hit much, Oscar Gonzalez hit even less and was relegated to Triple-A, and Ramon Laureano had about league-average production after being claimed from the A’s in August, but that’s probably not enough to avoid a non-tender.

First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024, and the Guardians would love to see any of them have an immediate breakout.  In the interim, however, the Guards need bats now, thus opening the door for one or two veteran bats on short-term control.

After spending relatively big by their standards to sign Bell (two years, $33MM), and Mike Zunino (one year, $6MM), one wonders if the Guardians are willing to stretch the budget even that far into free agency.  The pickings are slim in general in this winter’s thin position-player market, and Cleveland’s choices are further limited by their modest payroll.  Furthering narrowing the field is the left-handed slant of the current Guardians lineup, so the team might prioritize right-handed or switch-hitters.

Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or a bounce-back candidate like Hunter Renfroe could fit.  If more lefty swingers are on the radar, maybe Joc Pederson or old friend Michael Brantley could fall within the Guards’ price range.  The Guardians figure to be one of many teams vying for Aaron Hicks since the Yankees are covering almost all of his salary over the next two seasons, but the rejuvenated Hicks might prefer to join a more clear-cut contender or just stay in Baltimore.  For first base/DH types that could share time with Josh Naylor, players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper, or another former Cleveland staple in Carlos Santana could be considered.

Turning to the trade market, the Guardians’ enviable ability to keep developing quality big league starters can get them involved in several trade conversations, depending on how much pitching depth Cleveland is willing to sacrifice.  Making a blockbuster strike for, say, Juan Soto doesn’t fit Antonetti/Chernoff’s traditionally measured approach, but landing a quality bat with more team control is a possibility.  Teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Nationals are all varying degrees of fits in pitcher-for-outfielder scenarios, and any number of clubs could further emerge since every team always needs pitching in a broad sense.

Could landing a veteran bat for Shane Bieber be feasible?  It would depart from the Guardians’ usual model of trying to get at least one big league-ready younger talent and a longer-term prospect when dealing one of its established veteran stars, yet Bieber’s trade stock has taken a bit of a dip.  Bieber is only arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and he has had two of his last three seasons shortened by injuries.  It seems possible that Cleveland might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline if he’d been healthy, rather than on the 60-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.

Though years of Bieber-related trade rumors seem to have led to this crescendo in the 2023-24 offseason, an argument can be made that the Guardians should also hold onto the right-hander until at least the trade deadline.  This past season has underlined the importance of rotation depth, with Bieber and Cal Quantrill each missing a good chunk of the season and Triston McKenzie limited to only 16 innings.  If Bieber was dealt, Cleveland would be left with a rotation of McKenzie and Quantrill looking for bounce-back years, and the outstanding but inexperienced rookie trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  It’s still a solid group on paper, though more injuries or at least one sophomore slump could again leave the Guards scrambling, even if more young arms (headlined by Xzavion Curry) are waiting for their opportunity.

If Bieber was retained, the Guardians could explore moving Quantrill as an alternative, as Quantrill has two years of arbitration eligibility to Bieber’s one.  It would also be something of a sell-low situation given how shoulder problems limited Quantrill to 99 2/3 innings (with a 5.24 ERA) in 2023.  Bieber also has more front-of-the-rotation upside, whereas teams might have more questions about Quantrill’s low-strikeout, soft-contact approach, even he has produced very good results when healthy over the last four seasons.

The bullpen was around the middle of the pack last year, though any upgrades might be pretty low-key since Cleveland hasn’t traditionally made many splashes in adding relief pitching.  Bringing in another left-hander could be a priority, or just a veteran arm or two on a minor league contract.  As always, the bullpen could be a way for some MLB-ready future starters to get their feet wet against big league competition, like how Curry worked mostly as a reliever in 2023.

The bench might likewise not get a lot of focus, and if a couple of new outfield/DH types are indeed acquired, the bench mix could be somewhat set given the presence of Straw, Brennan, and the utility infielders.  Cam Gallagher‘s lack of offense makes him a non-tender candidate, but since the Guardians have shown a propensity for all-glove/no-bat catchers, the team might retain him as Naylor’s backup.  If Gallagher is let go, utilityman David Fry might be considered for the role, if the Guards are okay having a backup catcher with more versatility than normal.

In some ways, 2023 paralleled Cleveland’s previous losing season in 2021, when several pitching injuries dropped the team to an 80-82 record.  With this in mind, better rotation health alone might be enough to get the Guards (as they did in 2022) right back into contention the following season, even if adding more hitting might be a cleaner path to consistent winning than continuing to rely so heavily on pitching and defense.  There is also the x-factor of whether or not the Guardians’ winning formula can continue without Francona skillfully balancing the dugout, as there’s naturally no way to entirely replace what the skipper brought to the organization.  Nobody expects the Guardians’ next manager to be the next Francona, but there’s plenty of pressure trying to both fill the shoes of a legend and try a team back into the playoff hunt.

Click here to read the transcript of the Guardians-centric Mark Polishuk held in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals

Travis Blankenhorn Elects Free Agency

By | at October 7, 2023 8:34am CDT

Outfielder Travis Blankenhorn has chosen to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment to the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate, the club announced.  The free agent route was available to the 27-year-old Blankenhorn because has previously been outrighted earlier in his career.

After signing a minor league deal with the Nats last winter, Blankenhorn spent much of his season at Triple-A Rochester before his contract was selected to the big league roster at the start of September.  Blankenhorn appeared in 10 games, but a case of plantar fasciitis sent him to the 10-day injured list and prematurely ended his season.

Blankenhorn has appeared in each of the last four MLB seasons, though he played in just a single big league game in both 2020 and 2022.  In total, the outfielder has a .581 OPS over the small sample size of 68 career plate appearances, though his Triple-A numbers are much stronger.  Blankenhorn has a .261/.353/.485 slash line and 48 home runs over 1053 PA at the top minor league level, playing with five different organizations’ Triple-A affiliates over the last three seasons.

With that kind of offensive production and experience at first base, second base, and both corner outfield positions, it isn’t surprising that so many teams have taken an interest in Blankenhorn, even if he has been through the grind of moving from organization to organization with only a few cups of coffee at the MLB level.  He’ll now test free agency yet again, and the complication of lingering foot pain due to his plantar fasciitis could certainly be a concern for Blankenhorn’s chances of quickly landing another minor league contract.

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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

By and | at October 6, 2023 10:58pm CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

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Sandy Alcantara Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By | at October 6, 2023 10:57pm CDT

Marlins star Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery, he announced on Instagram. The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister, occurred this morning. He’ll miss the entire 2024 season.

“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had Tommy John surgery today and will miss next season,” the 2022 NL Cy Young winner wrote as part of a statement. “I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”

While the Marlins hadn’t indicated that surgery was on the table, it’s not an especially surprising development. Alcantara’s season was cut short last month. He landed on the injured list on September 6 with what the team initially diagnosed as a flexor strain. That was later revised to a UCL sprain, indicating some measure of tearing within the elbow ligament. With the Fish making a playoff push, Alcantara tried to return at season’s end. He threw four innings in a Triple-A rehab outing but reported additional forearm discomfort coming out of that appearance. Miami shut him down at that point.

The Fish were able to get into the postseason even without Alcantara contributing in the last few weeks. After being swept in the Wild Card round by the Phillies, they’ll go into the offseason looking for ways to build off this year’s promise. That’ll be quite a bit more difficult without one of the sport’s preeminent workhorses.

No pitcher has thrown more innings than Alcantara’s 619 over the last three seasons. Only Gerrit Cole has taken a heavier workload going back to the start of 2019. Alcantara handily leads the majors in complete games over the last three years, finishing off 10 starts. No other pitcher has gone the distance more than six times.

The two-time All-Star combines that MLB-best volume with outstanding rate production. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA every year from 2019-22, highlighted by a sterling 2.28 earned runs allowed per nine last season. He was unanimously voted the Senior Circuit’s top pitcher. Alcantara wasn’t as dominant this year, though he turned in another effective season overall. In 28 starts, he worked to a 4.14 ERA behind a 52% grounder rate while averaging over six and a half innings per appearance.

At this time last year, the Marlins had an embarrassment of riches on the mound. That contributed to their decision to deal Pablo López for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster. Miami has to be thrilled with what they received from Arraez in his first season in South Florida. While they still have a good rotation, its depth has taken some notable hits.

Trevor Rogers made just four starts, none after April, because of a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right (non-throwing) lat muscle. Prospect Jake Eder was dealt midseason for third baseman Jake Burger. Hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera walked over 15% of major league opponents and was demoted to Triple-A for a month midseason. He managed a 4.24 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout percentage. Miami’s starting staff ranked 9th in the majors in ERA (4.10), an effective yet hardly dominant result.

Left-handers Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett each topped 30 starts with sub-4.00 ERA showings. Top prospect Eury Pérez worked to a 3.15 ERA while striking out nearly 29% of batters faced in 19 outings as a rookie. They project as the top three in next year’s staff, likely followed by Cabrera and Rogers. Former #3 overall pick Max Meyer should be ready for Spring Training after missing all of this year working back from Tommy John surgery of his own.

There’s significant ceiling in that group, but only Luzardo and Garrett have shouldered a full big league workload within the last two seasons. The club could be cautious with innings counts for any of Pérez, Rogers or Meyer. Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing currently stand as the top depth options.

It seems likely Miami will bring in a veteran arm to add some stability to the group. They hoped that last winter’s signing of Johnny Cueto to an $8.5MM free agent deal would lock in serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings. Cueto didn’t meet expectations and is headed back to the open market. GM Kim Ng and her staff could look for a similar addition this time around.

Alcantara will count against the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. Miami can place him on the 60-day injured list at the beginning of Spring Training. As part of the extension he signed in November 2021, he’ll make $9MM next season. Alcantara is under contract for $17MM annually between 2025-26. Miami has a $21MM option or a $2MM buyout for the ’27 season.

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