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Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie

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Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520

Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.

Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586

A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.

Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA

Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.

Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525

Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.

Three More

Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.

Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.

Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Guardians Select Daniel Norris

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The Guardians selected veteran left-hander Daniel Norris onto the major league roster before tonight’s contest with the Twins. He takes the vacated active and 40-man roster spots after yesterday’s designation of Noah Syndergaard.

Norris has been on and off the Cleveland roster three times. The Guardians had outrighted him a couple weeks ago, but he quickly returned on a minor league pact. Over his trio of stints, he’s logged 10 2/3 innings of seven-run ball. Norris has walked 11 with 10 strikeouts in that limited MLB look. He has started 12 of 18 outings at Triple-A Columbus, posting a 5.60 ERA. He’s striking out just under 20% of opponents against a lofty 10.8% walk rate at the top minor league level.

The 30-year-old offers a multi-inning relief option for skipper Terry Francona and already entered tonight’s ballgame after Xzavion Curry was knocked out by the third inning. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster through season’s end, he’ll be a free agent next winter.

Twins Option Bailey Ober, Select Kody Funderburk

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The Twins announced they’ve selected southpaw Kody Funderburk onto the major league roster. Minnesota optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A St. Paul to clear an active roster spot. In order to open 40-man space, the Twins transferred Oliver Ortega to the 60-day injured list.

It’s a bit surprising to see the Twins send Ober down. The 6’9″ righty has been an effective starter over the course of the season. He owns a 3.67 ERA through 122 2/3 innings, striking out a solid 24.1% of opponents against a tidy 5.2% walk percentage. Ober now carries a 3.75 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk marks in 53 big league starts over parts of three campaigns.

That said, Ober’s performance has tailed off recently. He hasn’t topped five innings in any of his past six starts, allowing multiple runs in each. Ober was tagged for five runs in four frames by the Rangers yesterday, bringing him to a 6.75 ERA over his past 28 innings. It’s possible fatigue has played a role. Ober is up to 140 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors. His previous high as a professional was 108 1/3 frames during the ’21 campaign.

Optioning him allows the Twins to keep an eye on Ober’s workload down the stretch. Minnesota is six games clear of the Guardians in the AL Central, putting them in great position to secure a division title. They’re far enough behind the AL West and East leaders that a first-round bye is almost certainly not viable. The very likely outcome at this point is that Minnesota will get into the postseason as the #3 seed. Ober seems likely to be a factor in the playoffs, with the club using the intervening month to try to keep him fresh. Dallas Keuchel can step back into the rotation behind Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Pablo López and Kenta Maeda.

Funderburk, meanwhile, gets his first major league look. A 15th round selection from Dallas Baptist in the 2018 draft, the 6’4″ left-hander is a pure reliever. Funderburk has spent the majority of the season in St. Paul, working 52 innings over 37 appearances. He owns a 2.60 ERA and is striking out nearly 36% of batters faced at the top minor league level. Funderburk’s 10% walk rate is a little higher than ideal, but the missed bats and strong run prevention earn him a major league crack.

The Twins had been using Caleb Thielbar as the only southpaw in their bullpen. While Funderburk has posted reverse platoon splits in the minors this season — he’s stifling righties to a .184/.258/.234 line, while lefty hitters have posted a .195/.292/.254 slash — he’s been excellent against hitters of both handedness. He’ll give Rocco Baldelli a second left-handed option out of the ’pen.

Ortega’s season is almost certainly over. The righty just landed on the injured list with a left lumbar strain a few days ago. An offseason waiver claim, Ortega allowed seven runs in 14 2/3 innings with Minnesota this season.

Reds Place Matt McLain On IL With Oblique Strain

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The Reds announced today that infielder Matt McLain has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain. His roster spot goes to outfielder Stuart Fairchild, who has been activated from the concussion list.

McLain, 24, has been one of several Cincinnati rookies to hit the ground running in the big leagues this year, helping the club vault themselves from rebuilding and into contending. Since getting promoted to the big leagues in May, he has struck out in 28.5% of his 403 plate appearances but has launched 16 home runs and stolen 14 bases. His .290/.357/.507 batting line translates to a 128 wRC+, indicating he’s been 28% better than the league average hitter. He’s also been graded as a strong defender at both middle infield positions, leading to a tally of 3.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in just 89 games this year.

Losing that kind of production is obviously an unfortunate development for the Reds, especially as they have been scuffling a bit lately. The club has gone 9-15 in August and is now a game and a half out of a playoff spot. They will now have to proceed without McLain for at least the next 10 days, which is unfortunate timing in a couple of ways. For one thing, the Reds are coming up to an important part of the schedule, with their next seven games coming against the Giants and Cubs, a couple of the clubs they are battling in the Wild Card race.

There’s also the fact that there’s just over a month left in the schedule, which gives McLain a narrow window of time to return. If he’s able to come back after a minimal stint, he could still rejoin the club for a few more weeks, but oblique injuries are notoriously irksome and could make that difficult for him. The club hasn’t yet provided any specific estimates on his absence, but more information on that front will likely be forthcoming.

McLain has primarily been serving as the second baseman of late, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. Spencer Steer, who has been playing left field, is at the keystone tonight in McLain’s absence but the depth chart is a little light at the position apart from that, especially with Jonathan India and Kevin Newman both on the injured list. Both De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are shortstops and could theoretically handle the position, but Marte has never played there professionally and De La Cruz never in the majors. Jose Barrero is on the 40-man and has a bit of second base experience, but not much, just 10 2/3 innings in the majors and then 248 innings at Single-A back in 2018.

It’s also possible this injury could have an impact on National League Rookie of the Year voting, as McLain had emerged as one of the contenders for that award alongside some of his teammates and other players like Corbin Carroll, James Outman and Kodai Senga. Now that the new collective bargaining agreement allows club to potentially receive draft pick compensation based on awards voting under certain conditions, those races have implications beyond just the importance to the players themselves.

Pat Corrales Passes Away

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Former big league player, manager and coach Pat Corrales has passed away, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Corrales was 82 years old.

Born in Los Angeles in 1941, Patrick Corrales attended Fresno High School before signing with the Phillies as an amateur free agent in 1959. He worked his way up the minor league ladder and made his major league debut in 1964, though only got into two games that year. He would carve out a semi-regular role as a backup catcher in the seasons to come, bouncing to the Cardinals, Reds and Padres.

From 1964 to 1973, he got into 300 games and made 858 plate appearances. He had a batting average of .216 in that time, getting 166 hits, including 28 doubles, three triples and four home runs. He scored 63 runs, drove in 54 and stole one base. The 1970 Reds won the National League West and then defeated the Pirates in the NLCS to advance to the World Series, though they were then defeated by the Orioles. With the O’s up 3-1 in the series and 9-3 in the fifth game, Corrales was sent up to pinch hit for Hal McRae with two outs in the ninth. Corrales grounded out to finish the series and the season, the only postseason plate appearance of his career. (YouTube link via the Orioles.)

After his playing career ended, Corrales shifted into a managerial role, starring with the Rangers in the late ’70s before serving as skipper for Philadelphia and Cleveland. As a manager, he had a record of 572-634 over parts of nine different seasons. His last season as a manager was 1987, but he went on to spend many years as a bench coach, starting with the Yankees. He served in that role for Atlanta for nine years, including the club that won the 1995 World Series. He also served as a bench coach for the Nationals before being hired by the Dodgers as a special assistant to the general manager in 2012.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Isan Diaz Elects Free Agency

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August 28: The Tigers announced today that Diaz has elected free agency.

August 27: The Tigers announced this afternoon that infielder Isan Diaz has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Toledo. As there had been no prior public indication that Diaz had been designated for assignment and a corresponding addition to the club’s roster was not announced, Detroit’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Diaz, 27, made his big league debut with the Marlins back in 2019. A former second-round pick, Diaz has played solid defense at both second and third base but has never managed to hit much in the majors, slashing just .177/.267/.274 in 527 career trips to the plate. He’s been an up-and-down bench player throughout most of his career, with his most expansive role coming with Miami during the 2021 season. That year, Diaz appeared in 89 games and slashed .193/.293/.282 with a wRC+ of 55.

Diaz was outrighted off the Marlins’ roster just before the start of the 2022 campaign before being promptly traded to the Giants for cash. Though he didn’t make a big league appearance in 2022, the Giants returned him to the 40-man roster and deployed him in six games this season, though Diaz batted a woeful .053/.143/.053 in that brief stint with San Francisco. The Giants designated Diaz for assignment earlier this month, at which point he was claimed off waivers by the Tigers. Diaz then appeared in two games with Detroit, though he failed to reach base in his five trips to the plate.

As Diaz has been outrighted previously in his career, he’ll have the opportunity to reject today’s outright assignment and test free agency, should he wish. He’s posted a solid .242/.333/.492 slash line in the minors this year, indicating that it’s possible the 27-year-old infielder has something left in the tank that could be attractive on a minor league deal to clubs in need of infield depth. Should Diaz elect free agency, he would need to sign with a club before September 1 in order to be eligible for the postseason. As for the Tigers, they’ll remain well-stocked with infield options at the Triple-A level in the event Diaz departs, with Tyler Nevin, Eddys Leonard, Nick Maton, and Ryan Kreidler all on the 40-man roster.

Boras On Bellinger’s Bounceback Season

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Cody Bellinger’s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.

“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”

Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.

Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.

The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.

Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.

It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.

Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions submitted by our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday morning, we’re looking for MLBTR readers to submit their questions, and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a trade deadline retrospective, a question surrounding postseason races, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you! You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Nationals Select Drew Millas

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The Nationals announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Drew Millas, a move that seemed to be coming since it was reported yesterday that Millas was travelling with the club to Toronto. In corresponding moves, outfielder Blake Rutherford was optioned after yesterday’s game while righty Carl Edwards Jr. was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Millas, now 25, was originally drafted by the Athletics in 2019 but came to the Nats in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison the other way. He has since climbed his way up the minor league ladder, finishing last year at Double-A. Coming into this year, he was considered the club’s #25 prospect by Baseball America, who highlighted his defense but expressed concerns about his aggressiveness at the plate, with Millas having been punched out in 31.4% of his Double-A plate appearances last year.

He started this year back at Double-A and showed a great deal of improvement. In 99 plate appearances, he struck out at just a 16.2% clip and slashed .341/.455/.537, getting promoted to Triple-A in late May. FanGraphs then published its list of top prospects in the system in early June, bumping Millas up to the #6 spot. Since getting up to Triple-A, he’s taken 229 trips to the plate over 58 games. He drew walks at a 11.4% rate and struck out at a 14.4% strikeout clip while hitting .270/.362/.403 and will now get a bump to the majors.

The Nats will now have a three-catcher setup a tad earlier than usual, as such roster alignments are popular around the league when rosters expand in September. Millas will join Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams as the club’s catching trio for the time being, perhaps for the remainder of the season. The club has been playing well of late but are still well below .500 and eight games out of a playoff spot, meaning they are still clearly focused on the future.

Ruiz is hitting around a league average rate this year but his defensive marks aren’t great, including -11 Defensive Runs Saved and negative grades for his framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Nonetheless, he is fairly settled in as the club’s primary backstop, having signed an eight-year extension back in March. Adams is also graded poorly for his glovework but has a strong .278/.338/.489 batting line for the year. Most of that damage has come against lefties, as the right-handed hitter is slashing .349/.414/.603 with the platoon advantage. The Nats will have the final month-plus of the schedule to sprinkle playing time around to these three and determine how to proceed in future seasons.

As for Edwards, his transfer is little more than a formality. He’s already been on the injured list longer than 60 days, having landed there on June 21. He’s eligible to be reinstated whenever he’s healthy, but that isn’t likely to be in the near future as he was recently diagnosed with a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder and shut down.

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