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Brewers Release Eddy Alvarez

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The Brewers have released utilityman Eddy Alvarez, according to his MLB.com profile page.  Jim Goulart of BrewerFanatic.com reports (via Twitter) that Alvarez exercised an opt-out clause in the minor league contract he signed with Milwaukee back in December.

That deal had yet to translate into a call-up to the big league roster, even though Alvarez has hit .283/.397/.473 with seven homers and 16 steals (in 18 chances) over 257 plate appearances for Triple-A Nashville.  Goulart notes that “a bit of a roster crunch” impacted Alvarez’s playing time, which certainly must’ve influenced his decision to trigger the opt-out and look for a new opportunity elsewhere.

Alvarez isn’t exactly an up-and-comer at age 33, but his Triple-A performance and multi-positional versatility could very well land him a new minors deal with another team.  Alvarez is a veteran of three MLB seasons, hitting .183/.262/.262 over 142 plate appearances and 50 games with the Marlins and Dodgers from 2020-22.  Best known for his outstanding Olympic career as a silver medalist in both speed-skating and baseball, Alvarez has spent much of his 10-year pro baseball career in the minors with the White Sox and Marlins.

Clayton Kershaw Undergoes MRI, Hopes To Return In Early August

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Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched since June 27, as the longtime Dodgers ace has been on the 15-day injured list due to soreness in his left shoulder.  There wasn’t much concern at the time that Kershaw would miss much beyond the minimum 15 days, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts thought Kershaw would return soon after the All-Star break.  However, Kershaw now looks to miss at least another couple of weeks, as he told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that he could be out of action until early August.

It’s safe to consider this timeline as fluid, due to the somewhat unusual nature of Kershaw’s shoulder problem.  “I feel completely fine.  The shoulder feels good,” he said, and yet due to the results of an MRI, “I’ve just been told it has to rest.  It’s a weird deal.  I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest.  It’s just weird, honestly.  I don’t know what to make of it.  But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”

Shoulder-related issues sent Kershaw to the IL in both 2014 and 2019, though he missed less than two months total.  Of course, the left-hander is no stranger to the injured list in general, as Kershaw has spent at least some time on the IL in every season since the 2015 campaign.  It could be that Kershaw’s shoulder is simply showing some accumulated wear-and-tear after 16 Major League seasons, so while Kershaw physically feels like he can pitch, the doctors are simply showing some extra caution to prevent any further issues.

It isn’t good news for a Los Angeles rotation that battled through injuries all season, to the point that three rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) are currently lined up for turns in the starting five.  Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin have each missed time on the IL but are now the Dodgers’ only experienced healthy arms, as Kershaw and the struggling Noah Syndergaard are both sidelined.  Dustin May has been lost for the season due to flexor tendon surgery, and it remains to be seen if Walker Buehler will be available at all this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August.

Kershaw’s absence only deepens the Dodgers’ need for starting pitching, which was already a target area as the trade deadline approaches.  L.A. figures to cast a wide net in looking for arms, ranging from innings-eater types to the top of the market, including such sought-after rental pitchers as White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito.  The Dodgers have the prospect depth to get into the conversation about any available pitcher, yet right now there’s plenty of uncertainty over how many rotation holes Los Angeles might need to fill, if Kershaw’s return indeed doesn’t happen until after the August 1st trade deadline.

Angels Will Reportedly Consider Shohei Ohtani Trade Offers; Deal Seen As Unlikely

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As the trade deadline is now just over two weeks away, various clubs on the fringes of contention will have to make tough decisions about which players to trade and which to hang onto. The toughest decision and the one that is sure to get the most attention in the coming weeks is whether or not the Angels will trade two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

As of a few weeks ago, general manager Perry Minasian said the club’s position was “self-explanatory” at a time when they were 41-34 and in possession of a Wild Card spot. That seemed to suggest the club had no intention of trading Ohtani, though much has changed since then, with the club sliding in the standings prior to the All-Star break while also getting the grim news that Mike Trout is going to miss four to eight weeks after undergoing surgery for a fractured hamate.

With their record falling to 45-44 by last week, reporting indicated they seemed to be “leaving open the slight possibility” of making Ohtani available. After that report, the club lost two more games and went into the break at 45-46, fourth place in the West and five games back of the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Their playoff odds on FanGraphs are down to 10.7%. Today, Jon Morosi of MLB Network echoes that earlier reporting, taking to Threads to relay that the club will consider incoming trade scenarios, even though their bar for a trade remains incredibly high and a deal is still considered unlikely.

It’s not terribly surprising to hear that the club will listen to whatever offers come their way from other clubs. This is one of the toughest decisions a baseball club has ever had to make and it stands to reasons that they would want as much information as possible about each path before picking one.

The reasons for the difficulty of the decision are both due to the unique talent of Ohtani and the precarious position of the Angels. Ohtani’s skills are unprecedented and well-documented, but here’s a refresher if you need one. Dating back to the start of 2021, he’s hit 112 home runs, a tally bested only by Aaron Judge in that time. His combined batting line of .274/.369/.579 in those seasons amounts to a 154 wRC+, which places him fourth among qualified hitters in that stretch behind only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez. He’s done all that while posting a 2.86 ERA as a pitcher in just under 400 innings, with that earned run mark the eight best among qualified pitchers.

One player managing to simultaneously serve as one of the best pitchers and best hitters in the game is something that seemed unfathomable until Ohtani came along and reshaped our perceptions of what is possible in this game. But despite being the only club that has such a player on their roster, the Angels haven’t been able to construct a winning team around him. They haven’t even been able to finish with a record above .500 since 2015. With Ohtani set to become a free agent in a few months’ time, their window for achieving that goal is rapidly closing.

This isn’t the first time the prospect of an Ohtani trade has come up, as similar reports emerged one year ago. The club still had a year and a half of Ohtani’s services to bank on at that time, but they were even further back in the standings, sporting a record of 42-57. Ultimately, a deal didn’t come together, with owner Arte Moreno reportedly being the one that prevented a deal from being seriously pursued. The club didn’t consider trades in the offseason either and had planned to give contention another try, hoping to both capitalize on Ohtani’s contributions while also convincing him to stay beyond the 2023 season by showing him they could win.

With the club now once again floundering outside of contention, they will have to pick their poison soon, with all signs pointing to the fact that the club’s performance in the next few weeks could push them in one direction one way or another. Ohtani’s unique abilities, not to mention marketability, would be highly sought after by all contending clubs. The Angels will undoubtedly have offers that will allow them to completely restock their farm system, which could help them in future seasons. But doing so would mean trying to win without Ohtani in those future seasons, and with Trout now into his 30s with injuries becoming a more frequent issue.

Trading the most uniquely-talented baseball player of all time would undoubtedly be incredibly painful, not to mention a potential public relations nightmare, which perhaps might lead the club to holding on and hoping for the best down the stretch. It’s worth reiterating that all reporting indicates a deal is still unlikely, merely that the club is listening to offers that other clubs are making, not that they are shopping him around. However, not trading him contains what is surely the worst-case scenario of missing the playoffs and then seeing him depart in free agency for next to nothing. The club would be able to issue him a qualifying offer and recoup a compensatory draft pick, but the value of that will be far less than whatever offers will be on the table in the next few weeks.

All things considered, it doesn’t seem hyperbolic to say that the future of the Angels will be determined in the coming weeks. Although a deal still seems unlikely, it doesn’t seem to be completely off the table. If they flounder in their upcoming games and decide to on a trade, it will likely be some kind of franchise-altering return that’s difficult to predict since a trade of this nature has never happened before. Last year, the club reportedly wanted “something like your top four prospects” in trade talks. The price may well have dropped now that Ohtani has just a few months of remaining control, but it would likely still be very high. Given the dilemma that the club’s decision makers are in, it stands to reason that they would want to give a thorough assessment to all offers so that they know exactly what their options are.

But perhaps they stay close enough to decide against such a move, trying to compete without Trout for at least part of the near future. If it works, perhaps they can convince Ohtani to re-sign, though he hasn’t tipped his hand one way or another as to whether that’s something he would seriously consider or what his priorities will be in free agency beyond winning. The Angels start a homestand tonight against the Astros, Yankees and Pirates, then go out on the road to Toronto, Detroit and Atlanta before the August 1 deadline.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/14/23

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The Cubs and Reds agreed to terms with top 15 picks this afternoon. A few other top 40 selections are also set to put pen to paper.

(See pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, MLB Pipeline):

  • The Mariners have agreed to terms with all but two draft choices, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. 29th overall selection Johnny Farmelo and 20th-rounder Will Watson are the only players who haven’t agreed to terms. First round pick Colt Emerson will receive a $3.8MM bonus, per Kramer. That’s above the $3.5MM slot value for the 22nd overall pick. A hit-first prep infielder out of Ohio, Emerson had been committed to Auburn. Seattle will sign 30th overall pick Tai Peete for $2.5MM, Kramer reports. That’s a little below the $2.73MM slot value. Peete is a 6’2″ infielder from a Georgia high school who draws praise for his power potential and athleticism but some hit tool questions. He’ll bypass a commitment to Georgia Tech.
  • The Mets are in agreement on a $2.75MM bonus with 32nd overall draftee Colin Houck, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). New York went a bit above the $2.61MM slot value to sign the Georgia high schooler out of a commitment to Mississippi State. Houck, a right-handed hitting infielder, ranked between 10th and 21st on the referenced pre-draft rankings. There are questions about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop and eventually kick over to third base, but he’s viewed as a well-rounded offensive player with power projection and the ability to stick somewhere on the infield dirt.

Mariners Sign Logan Allen To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners signed left-hander Logan Allen to a minor league contract this evening, according to an announcement from Triple-A broadcaster Mike Curto (on Twitter). He’ll join the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma.

Allen, 26, is a former Guardians southpaw who is not related to a current Cleveland pitcher of the same name. Seattle’s Allen has pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns, mostly with Cleveland. He has a 5.89 ERA through 96 1/3 MLB frames. He has a below-average 15.5% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk percentage in that stretch.

The 6’3″ hurler was a fairly well-regarded prospect coming through the minor league ranks. He had strong numbers up through Double-A, including a 2.75 ERA at that level. Allen has yet to find much success beyond that point, allowing 6.35 earned runs per nine in parts of five Triple-A campaigns.

That includes a 7.20 ERA through 45 innings with the Rockies’ top affiliate earlier in the season. Allen signed a minor league deal with Colorado last August but had a rough time in an extremely hitter-friendly setting in Albuquerque. He was released two weeks ago.

Seattle has George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo in the rotation. Bryce Miller is on the injured list with a blister but expected to rejoin the rotation on Sunday. Allen isn’t going to crack that group if everyone’s healthy, but he’ll add an experienced upper minors depth option.

Reds Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Rhett Lowder

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The Reds have agreed to terms with first round pick Rhett Lowder, tweets Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll receive a $5.7MM bonus that comes in below the $6.28MM slot value of the seventh overall selection.

Lowder becomes the first top ten pick of the class to agree to terms. The Wake Forest right-hander appeared among the back half of the top 10 on pre-draft rankings from MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law and Baseball America. Evaluators credit him with a plus changeup, solid breaking ball and low-mid 90s velocity on a sinking fastball.

The 6’2″ hurler was the ACC’s pitcher of the year in each of his final two seasons for the Demon Deacons. He posted a 1.87 ERA over 120 1/3 innings as a junior. Lowder fanned 30.4% of opponents against just a 5.1% walk percentage.

Cincinnati used their first two choices on college pitchers, selecting LSU’s Ty Floyd with their Competitive Balance Round A selection. Second rounder Sammy Stafura and fourth round pick Cole Shoenwetter both appeared higher on most pre-draft rankings than their actual selection placements would suggest. Cincinnati could reallocate some of their savings on Lowder to overslot deals for those prep players.

Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters

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The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.

Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.

With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.

He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.

Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.

While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.

Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.

There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.

Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.

Yankees Sign Jake Lamb To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees signed first baseman/corner outfielder Jake Lamb to a minor league deal this afternoon. He was assigned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he’s making his organizational debut tonight.

Lamb was let go by the Angels a couple weeks ago. The veteran left-handed hitter had signed an offseason minor league contract and broke camp with Los Angeles. He struggled over 19 games, putting up a .216/.259/.353 line before being optioned. Lamb found his stride in Triple-A, putting together a .317/.453/.498 slash over 150 plate appearances. He walked at a huge 17.3% clip against a manageable 20% strikeout rate.

Despite the big upper minors numbers, the Halos designated him for assignment and released him last month. After a couple weeks on the open market, he finds a new landing spot and will try to play his way back to the big leagues.

Lamb has now appeared at the highest level in 10 consecutive seasons. An everyday player early in his career with the Diamondbacks, he has bounced around over the past few years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, Lamb has a .203/.297/.368 batting line in 434 MLB plate appearances split between seven different clubs.

Cubs Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Matt Shaw

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with first round selection Matt Shaw, as first reported by Keith Law of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be paid the full $4.85MM slot value associated with the 13th overall selection.

Shaw, a University of Maryland product, was generally perceived as a mid-first round talent. He ranked 7th on Law’s pre-draft rankings, 13th at Baseball America and 16th for MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his hit tool and solid power potential. The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, the righty-swinging middle infielder hit .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts during his final season in College Park.

While Shaw played shortstop for the Terps, reports suggest he’s likely to move to second base in pro ball because of a below-average arm. He’s expected to stick at the keystone and could potentially move quickly through the minors as an advanced college bat.

The Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner penciled into the middle infield for the next few seasons. If Shaw hits well enough in the minors to push to the MLB level within the next year or two, the extra depth would be a nice “problem” to have.

Antonio Senzatela To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Lyons of DNVR Sports). The righty is already on the 60-day injured list. He recently suffered a setback during his attempt to rehab from an elbow sprain that sent him to the IL two months ago.

It’s another dismal development for a Colorado pitching staff that has had a disastrous year. Opening Day starter Germán Márquez underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in May. Kyle Freeland had been healthy and effective for much of the first half, but he suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder during his final start before the All-Star Break.

A healthy Senzatela would quite likely be Colorado’s #3 starter behind Márquez and Freeland. The Rox are now without all three members of that group. Márquez’s time in the organization could be nearing its end completely. Colorado is sure to buy out a club option valued at $16MM, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to bring him back on a cheaper multi-year deal after that.

Senzatela will be on the roster next season, but he’s now slated to miss most or all of the year. The typical rehab for a Tommy John surgery ranges from 14-16 months. It’s possible he makes it back toward the tail end of the 2024 campaign if his recovery goes well.

The Venezuelan-born righty had been a decent innings eater for Colorado early in his career. He’s started 20+ games on three separate occasions and took the ball all 12 times through the rotation during the shortened 2020 schedule. Between 2020-21, he pitched to a 4.11 ERA through 230 innings. That’s solid production for a pitcher spending half his games in the league’s most hitter-friendly environment.

Near the end of the ’21 campaign, Colorado signed Senzatela to a five-year extension that guaranteed him $50.5MM. The contract bought out his final two arbitration seasons, three would-be free agent years, and contained a club option for a fourth free agent campaign (2027).

The first three years of that deal will now be defined by injury. Senzatela’s 2022 was cut short when he tore the ACL in his left knee last August. The rehab from the subsequent surgery carried into May. He made it back from the knee issue but started only two games before the elbow injury.

Senzatela will be paid $12MM annually for the next three seasons. Colorado’s ’27 option is valued at $14MM and does not come with a buyout. Senzatela could have tacked on another $1MM to his 2024-27 salaries had he been healthy enough to toss 200+ innings in either of the past two seasons, though that hasn’t come to be.

The Rox are now going to be even harder pressed in attacking their pitching staff next winter. They’re currently relying on a patchwork group comprising Austin Gomber, Connor Seabold and Chase Anderson. The club just added veteran righty Chris Flexen on a non-roster pact, while the likes of Noah Davis and Peter Lambert are possible depth options.

Only Gomber, who has righted the ship after a horrid first month, looks likely to be in next year’s season-opening rotation. Freeland should be the staff ace, but Colorado could have to acquire three or four starting pitching options over the coming months. General manager Bill Schmidt acknowledged earlier this week the team would prioritize young pitching in potential deadline trades, though none of the veterans whom Colorado appears to be shopping is likely to return a prospect of especially high regard.

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