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Archives for May 2024

Astros Claim Alex Speas, Designate Corey Julks

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Alex Speas off waivers from the Athletics, per an announcement from the A’s. Oakland had designated him for assignment earlier this week. The Astros opened a roster spot by designating outfielder Corey Julks for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Speas has been optioned to Triple-A already.

Speas, 26, is capable of getting into triple-digit territory with his fastball. However, as if often the case for pitchers with that kind of power, controlling it has been an issue. He started last year at the Double-A level in the Rangers’ system. He tossed 28 1/3 innings at that level with a walk rate of 11.3%, but was able to work around that by striking out 40.9% of batters faced, leading to an earned run average of 0.64.

Moving up to the higher levels, he found it more challenging to overcome the lack of control. He tossed another 28 1/3 innings at Triple-A, but walked 19.2% of batters faced. His 29.2% strikeout rate was still strong but his ERA was 5.08. He also tossed two innings in the majors, striking out four batters but walking five.

He was nudged off the Texas roster in September of last year and has bounced around a bit since then. The White Sox claimed him off waivers in early October last year but designated him for assignment in early April. He was claimed by the A’s and is now changing clubs via waivers yet again.

Between the Sox and the A’s, he’s thrown 12 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year. He has struck out 17 opponents but walked nine, leading to rates of 26.6% and 14.4%, respectively. Those free baserunners have led to him being burned by four home runs, which is why he has a 12.08 ERA so far this year.

Despite the rough results so far in 2024, the Astros are taking a bet on the stuff. In addition to averaging 98.9 miles per hour on his fastball during his brief MLB debut last year, Statcast also lists a 91.9 mph cutter and 87.7 mph sweeper as pitches he threw for the Rangers. He still has a couple of options, so the Astros can keep him in the minors to see if he gets a better handle on that arsenal in the future.

In order to take a chance on Speas, the Astros are risking losing Julks. The 2018 eighth-rounder had a strong season at Triple-A in 2022, hitting 31 home runs and stealing 22 bases. His .270/.351/.503 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 108 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

He cracked Houston’s Opening Day roster last year but didn’t immediately thrive in the majors and ended up back in the minors a couple of times. He finished the year with a .245/.297/.352 line in 93 big league games, translating to a wRC+ of 80. He still performed well in Sugar Land, drawing walks in 18.6% of his plate appearances and slashing .240/.388/.462 for a 110 wRC+.

Here in 2024, he was sent back to the Space Cowboys and has taken a slight step back. His 12.8% walk rate is still good but an obvious drop from last year. He currently has a .266/.358/.444 line and 97 wRC+ for the year.

Julks clearly has some skills but is now 28 years old and the Astros have a decent crop of outfielders ahead of him. Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage are each on the 40-man and all are on the active roster except for the injured McCormick.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Julks or pass him through waivers. Given his strong numbers on the farm and two remaining option years, it’s possible he will garner interest from clubs looking for more outfield depth.

Sean Burroughs Passes Away

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Former big league infielder Sean Burroughs passed away this week at just 43 years of age, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Tragically, the former Little League World Series hero and No. 9 overall draft pick collapsed while coaching his son’s little league game.

The son of former No. 1 overall draft pick, two-time All-Star, and 1974 American League MVP Jeff Burroughs, Sean clearly had baseball in his DNA. He starred on the mound and at the plate while leading his Long Beach team to consecutive Little League World Series wins and eventually went on to be selected by the Padres with the ninth overall pick in the 1998 draft. Baseball America ranked him among the sport’s top-100 prospects in each of the next four years, including top-10 rankings each year from 2000-02. Burroughs represented the United States in the 2000 Summer Olympics in Sydney and won a Gold Medal.

Burroughs made his big league debut as the Padres’ third baseman on April 2, 2002 — collecting two hits in his first taste of MLB action. He struggled through the season’s first two months but returned from a Triple-A assignment to hit .377/.433/.410 in 67 September plate appearances. Burroughs was the Padres’ regular third baseman in 2003-04, hitting a combined .292/.350/.384 in 1142 trips to the plate. He struggled at the plate again in 2005 and was traded to the Devil Rays in a 2005-06 offseason deal that sent right-hander Dewon Brazelton back to the Friars.

Burroughs appeared in only eight games for the Rays plus another 37 with their Triple-A affiliate in Durham. He was out of baseball entirely for several years after that and had since candidly spoken about a subsequent spiral of drug addiction and alcoholism. In a heart-wrenching interview with ESPN’s Jim Caple in 2011, Burroughs described the harrowing experience of spending years living in cheap Las Vegas motels, eating out of trash cans and abusing virtually any substance he could find. “I would just try to fill myself with as much substances as I could, legally or illegally,” he acknowledged.

Despite that low point — which Burroughs likened to the Nicolas Cage film Leaving Las Vegas — Burroughs’ baseball career had a second act. He cleaned his life up, got a second chance from late D-backs GM Kevin Towers (who’d drafted Burroughs with the Padres), and played in 78 games with the 2011 Diamondbacks. Burroughs inked a minor league deal with the Twins that offseason and wound up appearing in ten games with Minnesota as well. Those would prove to be the final games of his MLB career, but he spent the 2014-17 seasons playing between several teams in the independent Atlantic League, as well as in Venezuelan Winter ball and in the Mexican League.

Burroughs’ big league career lasted all of 528 games and saw him bat .278/.335/.355. Despite that modest performance, he’ll be remembered as a remarkable talent — one who was thrust into a national spotlight at an early age and racked up more accolades than most players accrue in a lifetime before he even set foot on a major league field. His tragic passing will bring about immeasurable “what ifs,” but Burroughs also stands as a beacon of perseverance. Overcoming his yearslong battle with addiction to return to the major leagues and spend more than a half decade in pro ball is inspirational in and of itself — the type of story that transcends baseball and has the power to impact a far broader audience.

We at MLBTR offer our condolence to the Burroughs family and to his friends, former teammates and coaches, and countless fans around the world.

The Red Sox’ Surprising Rotation Anchors

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The Red Sox are out to a decent start in 2024. Despite dropping five of their last six, they’re above .500 at 19-18. They’re currently in third place in a division where most observers felt they’d finish fourth or fifth. That’s a credit to a pitching staff that leads the majors with a 2.75 earned run average.

Boston’s bullpen looked solid coming into the year, yet the rotation was more of a question mark. It wasn’t that the group was devoid of talent. It was light on pitchers with a proven track record as starters, though, particularly after Lucas Giolito went down for the season in Spring Training. That left the Sox relying on a handful of pitchers who’d been productive as relievers to shoulder important rotation jobs. They’ve delivered thus far, with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford out to particularly excellent starts.

Houck and Crawford are the only members of Boston’s season-opening rotation who haven’t spent time on the injured list. Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have all missed time. (Pivetta returned on Wednesday and Bello could be back by the weekend.) Houck wasn’t even a lock for the Opening Day starting five until Giolito’s injury. By all accounts, the Sox rotation should have struggled to this point.

Instead, they easily lead the majors with a 2.33 ERA. That’s at least partially a reflection of their usage. Only the White Sox — whose rotation has been one of the league’s worst — have allowed their starters to face an opposing hitter for a third time in an outing less often. Alex Cora is getting to the bullpen early, which takes some of the higher-pressure at-bats off the rotation. Yet that doesn’t entirely detract from how effective Boston’s starters have been.

Crawford, 28, has appeared in parts of four seasons. He held a rotation spot from June onward last year, turning in solid if unexciting results. Over 23 starts, he worked to a 4.51 ERA with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. It was enough for the Sox to guarantee him a rotation spot even when they expected Giolito would be healthy. He went into 2024 with a season-opening starting job for the first time in his career.

The right-hander has doubled down on last year’s success. Through eight starts, he carries a 1.75 ERA that ranks seventh among qualified starters. He has fanned 24.3% of opponents and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 12.3% clip. Crawford has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of his appearances.

Crawford probably isn’t an ace. He’s not missing bats at the level associated with the game’s truly elite pitchers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who’ll surely allow a few more home runs over the course of the year. Crawford looks like a legitimate mid-rotation arm, though. He’s attacking hitters with more offspeed stuff — part of a team-wide philosophical shift under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey — and has done an excellent job staying off barrels. That’s true against left-handed and righty batters alike, making it difficult for opponents to play matchups and allowing him to at least work through the batting order twice in a start.

That has also been true for Houck, at least this season. Concerns about the right-hander’s low arm angle and heavy reliance on a sinker/slider combination have led some evaluators to project him to the bullpen going back to his college days in Missouri. It’s difficult to avoid huge platoon splits with that kind of profile. Left-handed batters can identify the ball early in his delivery. For most of his career, Houck hasn’t had a pitch to keep opposing southpaws at bay.

Houck kicked between starting and relief over his first three-plus seasons. He worked out of the rotation for all 21 of his appearances last year but struggled to a 5.01 ERA. Handling left-handed hitters was indeed an issue. Through the end of the 2023 season, Houck stifled righties to a .214/.282/.283 batting line behind a 27.4% strikeout rate. Lefty batters turned in a much more productive .251/.343/.420 slash while striking out 22% of the time. Lefties drew more walks and hit for much more power against him.

That hasn’t been the case this season. While Houck has still been better against right-handed hitters in 2024, that’s more a reflection of his dominance against everyone than any kind of issue handling southpaws. Houck is holding left-handers to a .227/.279/.258 slash in 104 plate appearances. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t great, but he has more than halved his walks and pushed his ground-ball percentage north of 60%. Even if they’re still putting the ball in play at a decent clip, lefty batters aren’t doing any kind of damage. (Houck has completely befuddled right-handed opponents, limiting them to a .203/.234/.284 mark behind a huge 31.2% strikeout rate.)

As is the case with Crawford, Houck has found that new level by moving away from his heater. Houck has essentially doubled the usage of his splitter against left-handed batters while scaling back on his fastball and cutter. The split isn’t a new pitch — he has had it throughout his career — but he’s getting more downward action on it. The uptick in its deployment suggests Houck is far more comfortable with the pitch than he’d been before this year.

Whether Crawford and Houck can maintain an upper mid-rotation pace or better over a full schedule remains to be seen. Neither pitcher has yet reached 130 major league innings in a season. Opposing lineups will adjust to their heavier reliance on offspeed stuff, and league-wide offense generally improves as the weather warms. They’ve each been among the best pitchers in the majors through six weeks, though. These kinds of breakouts are necessary for a team to outperform expectations and stick in the playoff mix against the odds.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR writer Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively with Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on A's star closer Mason Miller, the forthcoming debut of Paul Skenes, the Astros' playoff chances, whether the Orioles should make a change in their bullpen, the Yankees' rotation and more -- including questions on the Pirates, Reds, Mariners, Brewers, White Sox, Tigers and Padres.

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Willson Contreras Expected To Miss About 10 Weeks

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Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras underwent surgery to stabilize the fracture in his forearm on Wednesday of this week. Manager Oli Marmol tells the Cardinals beat that the surgery went as expected, and Contreras is expected to miss around 10 weeks of action. He’s hopeful of returning shortly before the All-Star break (via John Denton of MLB.com and Katie Woo of The Athletic on X). Contreras suffered the fracture this week when Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez struck his left forearm during a swing.

Subtracting Contreras from an already struggling Cardinals lineup is a gut-punch. Veteran stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have both underperformed this season (the former, in particular), while injuries have kept Tommy Edman off the field entirely and limited Lars Nootbaar’s time on the field (and arguably his productivity as well).

The Cards are batting just .217/.296/.339 as a team. They rank 29th in the majors in home runs (27), 29th in runs (127), 28th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and are tied with the Marlins for 27th in slugging percentage. As longtime Cardinals reporter and St. Louis radio host Bernie Miklasz points out on X, the trio of Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson have astonishingly combined to go 0-for-48 since the calendar flipped to May.

Were it not for an eye-popping start to the season from Contreras, those team totals and rankings would be far worse. He’s been far and away the team’s best hitter, batting .280/.398/.551 with six homers in 128 plate appearances. Contreras’ six homers lead the club, and he’s also pacing the team in doubles (11), walks (18) and wRC+ (171).

In his absence, the Cardinals will turn catching duties over to the tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. Herrera has long been a touted catching prospect who looked ready for an audition as a big league regular, but between iron man Yadier Molina and the team’s signing of Contreras, that opportunity hadn’t presented itself — until now. The 23-year-old is out to a slow start in 76 plate appearances this year, hitting just .232/.276/.377. However, he slashed .297/.409/.351 in 13 games with the Cards last year in addition to posting a huge .297/.451/.500 line (147 wRC+) in 83 Triple-A contests (375 plate appearances).

Pages made his big league debut this month. He’s appeared in six games but has just eight plate appearances and has yet to log his first major league hit. The 2019 sixth-round pick is considered a glove-first catching prospect but did post a quality .267/.362/.443 slash (142 wRC+) in 497 Double-A plate appearances last season. He was 4-for-18 with a homer and two doubles in Triple-A prior to his call to the big leagues.

The 15-22 Cardinals have lost five straight games and eight of their last ten. Their -41 run differential ranks 25th in the majors and 12th in the National League.

Clint Frazier Signs With Atlantic League’s Charleston Dirty Birds

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The Charleston Dirty Birds of the Atlantic League lost one former big leaguer yesterday when infielder Drew Ellis signed with the Angels, but they quickly filled that roster spot with another, announcing the signing of outfielder Clint Frazier.

Now 29 years of age, Frazier was the No. 5 overall pick back in 2013 and spent the better part of a half decade ranked among the sport’s top prospects. Cleveland shipped him to the Bronx as part of a deadline blockbuster netting star reliever Andrew Miller in 2016.

For a time, Frazier looked like a potential building block for the Yankees. While injuries (multiple concussions, an ankle sprain, an oblique strain) and a big league roster crowded by well-paid veterans (e.g. Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks) routinely cut into Frazier’s playing time, he appeared in 123 MLB games from 2018-20 and turned in a combined .267/.351/.485 batting line and popped 20 home runs in just 447 plate appearances. Frazier got a notable run as the team’s primary left fielder in the shortened 2020 season and delivered the best stretch of his career: .267/.394/.511 with eight homers, six doubles, a triple and five steals in just 160 plate appearances.

On the heels of that performance, Frazier secured himself the Opening Day nod in left field for the 2021 Yankees. He hit safely in his first four games and briefly looked to be picking up where he left off, but a protracted slump would soon set in. Frazier wound up struggling mightily through the season’s first three months, hitting .186/.317/.317 with a bloated 29.8% strikeout rate. The Yankees placed him on the injured list in early July with vertigo symptoms. Frazier would not only go on to miss the remainder of the season — he’d ultimately be non-tendered that November, ending his Yankees tenure.

Subsequent low-cost deals with the Cubs and White Sox didn’t get Frazier’s career back on track. He tallied just 45 plate appearances with the former and 76 with the latter, combining for a .204/.322/.262 slash and going homerless on both the north and south side of the Windy City. The once-lauded prospect also had a brief stint in the Rangers organization after inking a minor league pact but didn’t get called up from Triple-A Round Rock.

Tumultuous as his stay in the Bronx was, Frazier showed plenty of promise at times and is still just 29 years old. He won’t turn 30 until September. He’ll face a long road back to the big leagues, but he’d hardly be the first player to parlay a strong showing in the Atlantic League back into affiliated ball.

The Opener: Skenes, Woo, Iglesias

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Skenes to debut:

Less than a year after he was selected first overall in the 2023 draft, Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is set to be promoted to the big leagues this weekend. Skenes, who will celebrate his 22nd birthday later this month, has carved up Triple-A hitters to the tune of a microscopic 0.99 ERA across seven starts at the level with an incredible 42.9% strikeout rate in 27 1/3 innings of work. The young fireballer will make his MLB debut at PNC Park in Pittsburgh on Saturday, where he’ll take on Cubs ace Justin Steele (0.96 ERA in two starts this season). First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm local time Saturday afternoon.

2. Woo to be activated:

Mariners manager Scott Servais offered some exciting news to reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) yesterday afternoon when he revealed that youngster Bryan Woo will be activated off the injured list today to take the ball against the A’s in Seattle this evening. Woo, 24, has missed the entire 2024 season to this point due to elbow inflammation but made 18 starts with the Mariners in his rookie season last year. In 87 2/3 innings of work, Woo posted a respectable 4.21 ERA and 4.36 FIP with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate. Woo’s start will begin at 6:40pm local time this evening, when he’ll pitch opposite Oakland right-hander Paul Blackburn.

3. Iglesias approaching milestone:

Braves closer Raisel Iglesias currently has 199 career saves, leaving him just one away from becoming the 54th player in MLB history to reach the 200 saves milestone. After joining Atlanta at the trade deadline in 2022 in a deal with the Angels, the right-hander has posted a sterling 1.96 ERA in 96 1/3 innings of work with the Braves while striking out 27.8% of batters faced. Even by those lofty standards, the right-hander is off to an impressive start this season; in 14 1/3 innings of work, the 34-year-old veteran has posted a 1.88 ERA with a 2.60 FIP, though he’s managed just ten strikeouts in that time. Iglesias could get the opportunity to reach the milestone this weekend in Queens, where the Braves will be visiting the Mets for a three-game set.

Mason Miller Drawing Trade Attention

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The A’s are receiving early trade calls on closer Mason Miller, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While the team is at least broadly open to discussions, Rosenthal reports that no one has come close to what is understandably a huge ask.

Miller has been one of the league’s breakout players in 2024. It certainly didn’t come out of nowhere — he has been widely regarded as a Top 100 prospect in each of the last two years — but the second-year righty is already one of the best relievers in the game. Miller gave up two runs in his first appearance of the season against the Guardians. He hasn’t been scored on in 12 games since, and that understates his dominance.

The 25-year-old has recorded multiple strikeouts in all but two of his outings. He has fanned 33 of the 60 batters who have stepped in against him. That’s a laughable 55% rate. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, Cincinnati’s Fernando Cruz ranks second with a 47.3% strikeout percentage. Only four qualified relievers — Devin Williams (during the abbreviated 2020 schedule), Aroldis Chapman (2014), Craig Kimbrel (2012) and Edwin Díaz (2022) — have ever maintained a strikeout rate north of 50% over a full season. Miller has induced swinging strikes on more than 21% of his pitches, a mark only narrowly topped by Cruz. He has paired that overwhelming stuff with strong control, issuing just four walks without hitting a batter.

[Related: The A’s Overpowering Closer]

It’s not difficult to understand why opponents haven’t had any success making contact. Miller’s stuff is off the charts. His fastball is averaging 100.8 MPH and can run into the 103-104 MPH range at its high end. He has paired it with an upper-80s slider that drew plus or better reviews from prospect evaluators and has been nearly unhittable. Opponents are coming up empty almost half the time they swing at both offerings.

Every bullpen would be massively upgraded with Miller at the back end. It’s entirely unsurprising that teams would look to pry him from Oakland and that the A’s would need a massive haul to consider it. On top of Miller’s dominance, he’s under affordable club control for years to come. He entered 2024 with less than one season of MLB service. He’s not on track to reach free agency until the end of the 2029 campaign. Miller is a lock to go through arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but that won’t begin until after next season.

The A’s are still deep into a rebuild despite a reasonable 18-21 start. They’re very unlikely to hang in the playoff mix this year, although they surely anticipate being a legitimate contender well within Miller’s window of team control. A player of this caliber who still has five-plus years of control being traded is essentially unheard of.

However, Miller’s status is at least somewhat clouded by an alarming injury history. He barely pitched in the minors in 2022 because of shoulder troubles. The A’s nevertheless called him up early last season to work from the rotation. Miller made four starts before being diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his elbow. He was shelved into September. The A’s used him out of the bullpen for 2-3 inning stints once he returned.

GM David Forst announced early last offseason the A’s would move Miller to late-inning relief this year in an effort to keep him healthy. They’ve maintained they’re not opposed to stretching him back out as a starter in ’25, although he may wind up being so impressive as a reliever the team chooses not to mess with success.

There’s no small amount of stress put on the arm of a pitcher who throws as hard as Miller does. The front office presumably has some concern about the possibility he suffers another significant injury. That would be the main argument for genuinely considering trade offers, though Miller also clearly has the talent to be a franchise building block. That’s particularly true if the A’s are serious about potentially moving him back to the rotation in 2025.

Significant trades this early in the season are rare, although the Padres and Marlins lined up on the Luis Arraez swap last week. Teams will certainly continue trying to tempt the A’s as the deadline gets closer. Miller would be their most valuable trade chip, while players like Paul Blackburn, Brent Rooker, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood could draw attention.

Speculatively speaking, Lucas Erceg could also emerge as one of the more intriguing relievers on the deadline market. A former third baseman, Erceg was a late convert to pitching whom the A’s acquired from the Brewers in a minor trade nearly a year ago. While he struggled to a 4.75 ERA over 55 innings as a rookie, he has been a key high-leverage arm for skipper Mark Kotsay in 2024. Erceg has managed 22 strikeouts over 15 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. His fastball is sitting in the 98-99 MPH range.

Erceg also has six years of team control, so there’s no urgency for the A’s to move him. He’s already 29 years old and not as overpowering as Miller, though, so he’s less likely to be a major long-term piece coming out of the rebuild.

The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions

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Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.

Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.

The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.

The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.

After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.

So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.

There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.

Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.

But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.

The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.

Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.

Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.

Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.

Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.

Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.

Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.

Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.

If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.

There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.

Twins Sign Austin Brice To Minor League Contract

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The Twins have signed reliever Austin Brice to a minor league deal, according to an announcement from their Double-A team in Wichita (X link). It’s the second time Brice has landed with the Minnesota organization. He finished last season with their Triple-A club in St. Paul.

Brice never got a major league call from the Twins. He returned to minor league free agency at the start of last offseason and inked a non-roster deal with the Phillies. The 31-year-old only pitched twice in the Philadelphia organization before he was released on April 7. He lands another opportunity a month later, although he’ll at least begin his second Minnesota stint in Double-A.

A former ninth-round pick of the Marlins, Brice has pitched in parts of seven MLB seasons. His best year came in 2019, when he turned in a 3.43 ERA with a league average 23.1% strikeout rate in a career-high 44 2/3 innings. Brice increased his strikeouts the following season after being traded to the Red Sox. Yet his walks also spiked and he allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings. Brice struggled again the following season and was twice sent through waivers.

His most recent MLB action came via a four-game stint with the Pirates in 2022. He spent all of last season in Triple-A between the Arizona and Minnesota organizations. Brice struggled at the top minor league level, allowing a near-7.00 ERA. Some of that damage came in a disastrous three games for the D-Backs’ affiliate in Reno — one of the toughest places to pitch in affiliated ball — but he also managed only a 5.54 mark over 37 1/3 frames for St. Paul.

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