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Archives for February 2025

The Opener: Nationals, Extensions, MLBTR Chat

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As spring training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals 40-man move incoming:

The Nationals were reportedly nearing a deal with right-hander Lucas Sims earlier this week, and this morning MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman reports that Sims has a locker in the team’s clubhouse. Given that, it seems likely that the club will make Sims’ deal official at some point today. The Nationals will need to make room on the 40-man roster in order to bring Sims into the fold officially. Right-hander Mason Thompson is recovering from Tommy John surgery after undergoing the procedure last March, making him a potential candidate for the 60-day injured list, but it’s also possible he’ll be ready to return early enough in the season that the club doesn’t want to commit to shelving him for the first two months of the season.

2. Extension season underway:

The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not reach an extension before Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline yesterday, which took perhaps the winter’s highest-profile extension target off of the table. That same day, the Diamondbacks finalized an extension with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo that extends the team’s window of club control by three seasons. Spring training is the most common time for players and clubs to discuss the possibility of a longer-term deal. Pending free agents like Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have all seen their names surface in extension rumors. A team like the Red Sox could have extra motivation to try to lock up a trade acquisition (e.g. Garrett Crochet) after parting with significant prospect talent to acquire him. But, Perdomo’s extension serves as a reminder that many long-term deals for players still approaching or just entering arbitration come to fruition without virtually any buzz beforehand. As can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there were 25 spring extensions hammered out from 2022-24: six in 2024, 11 in 2023 and another eight in 2022.

3. MLBTR Chat:

Spring training is now officially underway, though a handful of of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents remain unsigned and some clubs still have more work to do before the start of the season. Whether you have a trade proposal in the back of your mind or questions about an upcoming camp battle this spring, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Expects To Reach Free Agency Without Extension

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Blue Jays position players reported to camp this morning for the club’s first full-squad workout of the spring, and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of today for extension talks with the club ahead of his final season under club control before free agency. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the sides did not reach a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Guerrero does not intend to negotiate during the season and now expects to reach free agency, while Hazel Mae relays (Video Link) that Guerrero noted he “would not close the door” on signing if Toronto brass presented him with a “realistic” offer.

Guerrero, still just 25 until March 16, is one of the most accomplished young players in the league and is likely to enter free agency as the most sought-after player available. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards under his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his career. That type of offensive talent will always be enticing to clubs in free agency, but what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his combination of youth and ceiling.

Few hitters in the game can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 campaign was second only to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 home runs were tied with Salvador Perez for the most in the majors that year, and his .401 on-base percentage led the American League while trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in the NL. Steps back offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions regarding whether that otherworldly performance might be a fluke, but Guerrero squashed those concerns by more or less repeating his 2021 heroics this past season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 games for the Jays this past year, hitting “just” 30 homers in the process but making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout rate that was the lowest of his career. Just nine qualified MLB hitters struck out less often than Guerrero in 2024, and among that group only Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer campaign were able to top Guerrero’s .221 isolated slugging percentage.

Reaching free agency on the heels of his age-26 season should make Guerrero all the more attractive in free agency come November. Guerrero will hit the open market just one year older than Juan Soto was during his own free agency this past winter, and that young age was crucial for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the next 15 years and could max out at more than $800MM. That massive payday came in spite of Soto being a limited defender in the outfield corners who does not provide substantial value on the basepaths. While Soto is arguably in a class all his own as a hitter, with his career 158 wRC+ nearly matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his record payday is still great news for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no better comparison for Soto in the league than Guerrero at his peak.

Given that, it’s easy to imagine the bidding for Guerrero’s services surpassing half of a billion dollars. That seems to be right around where Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reports regarding his asking price have suggested he was looking for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a simple “No” when asked if the Blue Jays had put forth an offer that was close to his price point, and given Guerrero said earlier this winter that Toronto’s offer to him prior to Soto’s deal with the Mets sat at $340MM it’s hard to argue with his assessment unless the club brought their offer significantly higher over the course of the offseason.

Given the gap between the Guerrero’s rumored demands and the offer he said the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the sides did not work out a deal. That’s reflected in a poll of MLBTR readers last month, where just 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would sign long-term with the club before today’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d still like to be a Blue Jay for life even as he went on to note that Toronto will now have to compete with 29 other clubs for his services on the open market. On the other hand, he also noted (as relayed by Matheson) his desire to win a World Series championship with his next club. That desire to win could hurt the Blue Jays’ odds of keeping Guerrero, as they finished dead last in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 record. They appear to be longshots for the postseason this year as well after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber clubs while the Red Sox put together a strong offseason that saw them add multiple star players in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.

As for the front office’s perspective, club GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment that a deal did not get done, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasize that the club “worked very hard” in their efforts to come together on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the organization’s part to keep their superstar in the fold is “still there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics regarding numbers and contract offers but described their offer to Guerrero as one that would’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of the highest paid players” in baseball if signed (video link via Mae). Atkins also made clear that the club’s inability to get a deal done with Guerrero was not a matter of resources, though that’s hardly a surprise given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the past two winters.

Going forward, the Blue Jays figure to continue trying to win during Guerrero’s final year of club control. They’ve long resisted the possibility of trade talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency this winter while adding another $96.5MM in trade by taking on the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it seems unlikely that they would change course now rather than push in for 2025 and hope they can convince Guerrero to return next offseason. It’s possible that they could revisit the possibility of dealing Guerrero at the trade deadline this summer if they’ve fallen completely out of the playoff picture by then, however, and if shopped Guerrero would be the most impactful rental moved at a trade deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.

Jim Todd Passes Away

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Former major league pitcher Jim Todd passed away earlier this month at 77. A right-handed reliever, he pitched six seasons in the majors during the 1970s.

The Cubs selected Todd in the ’69 draft coming out of Millersville University in Pennsylvania. He was a starter throughout his minor league career but moved to the bullpen upon reaching the majors in 1974. Todd pitched to a 3.89 earned run average across 88 innings for the Cubs as a rookie. Chicago dealt him to the A’s that offseason.

Todd had his best season for Oakland in 1975. He recorded 12 saves while turning in a 2.29 ERA over 122 innings out of the bullpen. He received a down-ballot MVP vote in the process. Todd pitched in all three games of the ’75 AL Championship Series. Oakland was swept by the Red Sox in what would be his only career playoff action. Todd spent another four years in the majors, alternating good and bad seasons while splitting his time between the A’s, Cubs and Mariners.

Over parts of six seasons, Todd posted a 4.23 earned run average across 511 major league innings. He struck out 194 hitters, picked up 25 wins, and recorded 24 saves. He finished 119 of 270 career appearances. According to his obituary, Todd had a career in real estate after his playing days concluded. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Jordan Beck Enters Camp As Favorite For Rockies’ Right Field Job

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Jordan Beck has the inside track on the Rockies’ right field job, manager Bud Black said this week (link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The second-year outfielder is “the guy who probably gets the first crack at what you would call everyday at-bats,” Black told Saunders.

Beck is positioned to make an Opening Day roster for the first time in his big league career. Colorado called up the Tennessee product late last April. Beck played regularly in left field over the next few weeks, but he only hit .190 before breaking a bone in his left hand while making a diving catch. He underwent surgery and wound up missing over two months. Beck spent some time in the minors before returning to the MLB team in the middle of August. He continued to struggle after his second call-up, hitting .187/.282/.242 over the season’s final six weeks.

It clearly wasn’t a good rookie season. Beck appeared in 55 games and hit .188/.245/.276 across 184 trips to the plate. He struck out more than 35% of the time while drawing walks at only a 6.5% rate. Hand injuries can impact a hitter’s power, so that may have contributed to his modest output. Beck hit only three home runs with poor exit velocities and a subpar 32.1% hard contact rate.

Beck certainly has greater power upside. Prospect evaluators have credited him with plus raw power in his 6’3″, 225-pound frame. He’s a .284/.380/.509 hitter in nearly 900 minor league plate appearances. The offensive ceiling will largely be determined by how much he develops as a pure hitter. He’ll need to markedly improve upon his rookie-season strikeout and walk numbers. The righty hitter has taken plenty of walks in the minors, but scouts have questioned his elevated swing-and-miss rates since his college days.

It seems the Rockies feel the majors present the best place for that development. Beck only has 39 games of Triple-A experience. He has a full slate of options remaining, so Colorado could start him at Triple-A Albuquerque if they felt that’d be beneficial. Based on Black’s comments, it appears they believe he’s ready for an extended opportunity despite his tough rookie season. Beck tells Saunders that he fought through some mechanical issues with his swing after the injury but is coming into camp at full strength following a typical offseason.

Colorado projects to run a starting outfield of Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle, and Beck from left to right. Jones is looking to rebound from a .227/.321/.320 showing, a disappointing follow-up to his .297/.389/.542 performance during his first season in Denver. Doyle is one of the biggest bright spots for the organization. He’s a Gold Glove center fielder who hit 23 homers while making major improvements to his plate discipline last season.

Sam Hilliard is lined up as the fourth outfielder, while Sean Bouchard and former top 10 pick Zac Veen could compete for right field work if Beck struggles early in the season. Kris Bryant could still see action there, but he’ll work primarily as a designated hitter after multiple injury-wrecked years.

Steve Cohen Discusses Mets’ Long-Term Spending Plans

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Mets owner Steve Cohen spoke with reporters on Tuesday morning, discussing the organization’s spending outlook after another huge offseason. Cohen acknowledged that a winter involving a record-setting Juan Soto contract and retaining Sean Manaea and Pete Alonso pushed spending beyond his initial expectations.

“It always seems like ballplayers are more expensive than you think,” the owner told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey and Jorge Castillo of ESPN). “Listen, I have the ability to spend if I have to. I want to win. And I want to put the best team I can on the field. But free agency is expensive. … Even this year, I had a thought of where I wanted to be, and I’ve already blown through it. And I really wanted to be there. And just circumstances created, ’all right, I have to adapt my thinking.'”

Landing Soto required an eye-popping $51MM average annual value that handily shattered previous precedent. They successfully waited out Alonso’s market to avoid a long-term commitment, getting him on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first season. That comes with a lofty $27MM AAV and a $30MM figure for the upcoming season, so it’s still a huge investment in 2025. Manaea landed three years and $75MM (albeit with deferrals), while Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and A.J. Minter all secured multi-year contracts with eight-figure salaries.

RosterResource projects New York’s raw payroll around $331MM. Their competitive balance tax estimate is slightly lower at $325MM. Those seem to be within the ballpark, as Cohen told reporters that he expects to finish the season with a payroll in the $340MM range after accounting for in-season pickups (i.e. waiver claims and trade deadline acquisitions).

That could theoretically also include a Spring Training free agent move. There’s been some thought that the Mets could try to add to the rotation after the recent revelation that Montas will be out for an extended stretch because of a lat injury. Jose Quintana is arguably the best unsigned starting pitcher, but it seems the Mets aren’t circling back to the veteran southpaw. Mike Puma of The New York Post reported this morning that while Quintana has expressed interest in returning to Queens, the Mets haven’t been involved in his market.

The Mets will enter the year with the second-highest payroll in MLB behind the Dodgers. It’ll be the fourth straight season in which they not only pay the luxury tax but find themselves in the highest penalization tier. That’s $60MM above the base threshold. It was implemented in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement largely in response to other owners’ concerns that Cohen would blow the rest of the league away in spending. Teams that land in the top tax bracket and have paid the CBT in three or more consecutive seasons are charged a 110% tax on spending beyond that number, which lands at $301MM this year.

While the Mets are going to be firmly in that tier in ’25, Cohen said he’s hopeful of ducking below that line in future seasons. “I’d like to get below the Cohen Tax,” he said, alluding to the informal name for the highest tax bracket. “We sure it’s about me? There’s a lot of Cohens out there.” To that end, he somewhat downplayed the possibility of signing another extended megadeal next offseason. “You really can’t have too many long-term contracts, because then you lose your roster flexibility, so you need to be really careful,” he said. “But I’ll let my baseball people make that decision.”

This isn’t the first time that Cohen has spoken broadly about wanting to cut back spending over the long term. That hasn’t really happened. They ended last year with a tax number around $348MM, so this season is likely to represent a slight spending cut. RosterResource estimates their CBT number for 2026 around $206MM. Starling Marte’s four-year deal wraps up after the season, as do the one-year signings of Jesse Winker, Griffin Canning and Ryne Stanek. Alonso, Montas, Minter and Edwin Díaz all have opt-out chances.

Of that group, Alonso is most likely to retest the market. The star slugger didn’t find the long-term interest he’d expected, leading to the pillow deal. Alonso acknowledged that it represented “a bridge thing just to get to the next contract” (link via Tim Healey of Newsday). He conceded that his past two seasons have been below his peak standards, which contributed to a shorter deal. Alonso declined a three-year proposal from the Mets in order to take a more frontloaded two-year guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote over the weekend that the Mets and Blue Jays had each made proposals earlier in the offseason in the $85MM range which included some amount of deferred money.

Alonso also said that the qualifying offer had a greater impact on his market than he’d anticipated. Any team other than the Mets would have forfeited a draft choice and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. The Mets merely relinquished the right to a fourth-round compensation pick to retain their own free agent. Players can only receive the QO once in their careers, so Alonso is positioned to hit the market unencumbered next offseason. He indicated he has no hard feelings with the Mets about how this winter played out and said it’d be “fantastic” if the sides eventually work out a longer-term contract.

Bryan Reynolds Expects To Be Pirates’ Right Fielder

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There have been some whispers that perhaps the Pirates would move Bryan Reynolds from the outfield to first base but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. “It sounds like I’m a right fielder,” Reynolds said today, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “It helps to focus on that. Just focusing on that, being a right fielder.” He added that moving from left to right seemed to be “more of a permanent” transition “for now.”

Reynolds has spent his entire career in the outfield, playing all three spots, but the first base rumors started late last year. Back in September, manager Derek Shelton told Hiles that Reynolds had been talking about playing first for years and had recently got a first baseman’s glove.

The Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz this offseason and he seemed to be slated to be the club’s regular first baseman. However, it was recently revealed that he has undergone wrist surgery and will be sidelined for six to eight weeks. That means the Bucs will need to find alternative solutions there, at least for the beginning of the season.

Despite Reynolds having an interest in the position, it’s understandable that the Bucs don’t want to put him there right now, as it would just further thin out an outfield that already has some questions. Center field is going to be manned by former shortstop Oneil Cruz, who only has 195 innings of experience at his new position. It seems like the favorite for left field is Tommy Pham, who is about to turn 37 years and has has an up-and-down career of late.

Moving Reynolds in to take first would leave a hole on the grass to be filled by a clump of guys including Joshua Palacios, Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae. Next to Cruz and Pham, that doesn’t have the making of a strong group.

Moving from left to right is somewhat notable for Reynolds, as right field is the outfield position he’s played the least. He was primarily a center fielder earlier in his career before moving to left field in the past two years. He does have 398 innings in right, though that’s far less than the 3,062 1/3 frames he’s logged in left.

Metrics are divided on his work in left, as he has four Defensive Runs Saved but -12 Outs Above Average. His sample of work in right is a pretty small sample and tough to draw conclusions from, though he has 75th percentile arm strength and right field is smaller at PNC Park, so perhaps it’s a good move for him.

The Bucs will still have to figure out what to do at first base until Horwitz is back. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review recently took a look at some of the options, mentioning Jared Triolo, Darick Hall, Matt Gorski, Malcom Nuñez and Suwinski as possibilities.

Triolo just won a Gold Glove for the utility position in the National League last year, spending time at all four infield positions and right field. The larger question would be his bat, since he has a line of .242/.325/.341 in his big league career so far. Hall isn’t on the roster and has minimal big league experience but a big .253/.342/.458 line in his Triple-A career. Gorski isn’t on the roster either and hasn’t made it to the show yet but he had a nice line of .257/.319/.522 in Triple-A last year. Nuñez also has no major league experience and isn’t on the roster. He’s also coming off a poor .250/.310/.365 showing in Triple-A last year.

Suwinski has only played the outfield in his career but there’s potential upside with his bat. Over 2022 and 2023, he hit 45 homers for the Bucs and drew walks at a 12.8% clip. His 31.6% strikeout rate was a problem but the power and on-base abilities made him a productive hitter. Unfortunately, he had a dismal 2024, slashing just .182/.264/.324 and struggling in the minors as well. The first base opening provides a path for him to earn back some playing time but his bat will obviously have to rebound for that to be a realistic possibility. Per Gorman, the Bucs haven’t approached him about playing first but Shelton isn’t opposed to the idea, while Suwinski is open to the switch in order to improve his versatility.

Lerner: Nationals Not Ready For Big Free Agent Spending

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Coming into this offseason, some observers expected the Nationals to be a dark horse for the top free agents. That didn’t come to pass, which was addressed this week by owner Mark Lerner, who said that he and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo agreed the timing wasn’t right.

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said, per Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson [Werth]. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”

The Nationals have been firmly in rebuild mode for a while now. At the 2021 deadline, with their competitive window closing, they traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and others. The following summer, Juan Soto and Josh Bell were out the door. Though they won the World Series in 2019, they have finished well below .500 in the five seasons since then.

There have been some positive developments in that rebuild process lately. Young players like Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and others have had some big league success, to varying degrees, and are affordable as well as controllable for multiple years.

In addition to that emerging core, the club’s payroll situation looked to be in decent shape going into this winter. The six-year Patrick Corbin deal helped the Nats win a title in 2019 but his performance fell off for the final five years. That deal was backloaded, with a $12.5MM salary in the first year but a $35MM salary in the sixth. It was therefore taking up a big chunk of the payroll for a rebuilding club but finally came off the books a few months ago.

That left the Nats with few commitments going into the offseason. Catcher Keibert Ruiz is signed through 2030 but with his salary not reaching eight-figure territory unless the club picks up a 2031 option. Stephen Strasburg’s deal is still technically on the books through 2026 at $35MM annually, though there were deferrals in there and he also agreed to some unspecified deferral package as part of a retirement settlement.

With the fairly light slate of investments and the talent percolating up from the minors, there was an argument for a big splash to signal the end of the rebuild, like the Werth deal that Lerner referenced. Going into 2011, the Nats signed Werth to a seven-year, $126MM pact after five straight losing seasons. The Nats hovered around .500 in the first season of that deal but made the postseason in 2012, the first of five they would make in that decade, culminating with their aforementioned World Series win in 2019.

That’s not how the club played it this winter, however. They did sign some veterans, inking Trevor Williams, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Michael Soroka, Bell, Amed Rosario, Jorge López, and Paul DeJong, but most of those guys got one-year deals. Williams and Ogasawara were the only guys to get two years and no one got to three. Williams got the largest guarantee at $14MM. The club’s most significant trade pickup was Nathaniel Lowe, who is going to make $10.3MM this year. He’s controllable for 2026 and will be due another arbitration raise, but the Nats will have the ability to trade him or non-tender him, depending on how things go this year.

In short, they didn’t make the big move to signal the end of the rebuild. As Lerner alluded to, the club’s odds are long this year. The division has three stronger teams in Atlanta, the Mets and Phillies. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have the Nats coming in at 73 wins, 14 games out of third place. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic, projecting the Nats for just under 68 wins, 18 games back of third.

Those are just estimates and aren’t gospel, but it’s probable that the Nats had an internal view of their club that was somewhat similar to those numbers. While signing someone like Pete Alonso may have been exciting, he couldn’t have single-handedly made up that gap of 14-18 wins. It’s also debatable whether he’s even an upgrade over Lowe in a vacuum.

Based on Lerner’s comments, however, it does seem like such a move will come at some point. For now, they will continue to focus on developing their internal players. That should include more reps for the aforementioned youngplayers on the roster, as well as pushing prospects like Brady House, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora and others into the mix. They can also add to their stock of future talent in a few months, as they won the top pick in the 2025 draft lottery.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

Details On Negotiations Between Tigers, Alex Bregman

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Though Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, the Tigers were one of the finalists. It was reported last week that Detroit had an offer of six years and $171.5MM on the table with an opt-out after year two, though there were some deferrals involved. This week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press provides some more details and context for the talks between the Tigers and Bregman’s agent Scott Boras.

As for that previously-reported offer from Detroit, Petzold reports that $40MM of it would have been deferred. That’s a sizable amount but notably less than the deal Bregman accepted with the Red Sox. Though the sticker price on the Boston deal is $120MM over three years, $40MM average annual value, there are $20MM in annual deferrals for a $60MM total.

Bregman didn’t accept that offer from the Tigers but seemed perfectly open to joining the club, as his camp made a few counter offers. One of them was for $200MM over seven years, which would have been a $28.6MM AAV. The other was $186MM over six years, $31MM AAV, with an opt-out after 2025. Neither of those offers from Bregman/Boras to the Tigers included deferred money.

Those asks align with previous reporting on what Bregman was looking for in free agency. In the earlier parts of the offseason, he and the Astros seemed to be having a bit of a staring contest. Houston offered $156MM over six years, $26MM AAV, but Bregman reportedly wanted to get closer to $200MM and didn’t like the idea of taking a pay cut in terms of AAV. As part of Bregman’s previous extension with Houston, he made $28.5MM salaries in each of the final two years of the deal. The Astros walked away, which led clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers and Cubs emerging as frontrunners for his services.

His two counter offers to Detroit would have put him a bit above that Houston AAV but it seems the Tigers weren’t quite willing to go there. The previously-reported six-year, $171.5MM offer from Detroit would have led to an AAV of $28.6MM in terms of the sticker price, but the deferrals would have knocked that down. The degree to which the AAV would have dropped would have depended on how far into the future that money was deferred, but it surely would have been below the $28.5MM AAV that Bregman seemed determined to top, or at least match.

When pivoting to a short-term deal, a player usually sacrifices a bit of overall guarantee for greater earning power in the short term. There were reports in the offseason that Bregman was resisting such a pivot, presumably because he had these decent six-year offers from Houston and Detroit. However, since they didn’t quite live up to his expectations, he eventually did turn to a shorter pact. The $40MM AAV he got from the Red Sox is apparently going to be calculated as $31.7MM for competitive balance tax purposes when factoring in the deferrals, but that still allows Bregman to get an AAV bump compared to his last deal.

Whether that will prove to be a wise pivot remains to be seen. Last offseason, several players pivoted to short-term pacts that fell below initial market expectations. Most prominently, the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman took this path. That has already paid off for Chapman and Snell, who each eventually landed the mega deals they were seeking. Chapman initially got $54MM over three years from the Giants but then signed a six-year $151MM extension late in the 2024 season. Snell got $62MM over two years from San Francisco, opted out and then got $182MM over five years from the Dodgers.

For Bellinger and Montgomery, the jury is still out. Bellinger got $80MM over three years from the Cubs, had a good-not-great season and decided not to opt out. He has since been traded to the Yankees and has another opt-out chance after this season. Montgomery got just one-year and $25MM guaranteed but with a vesting option. He vested the $20MM player option and bumped the value to $22.5MM by making at least 18 starts, but decided not to return to free agency after posting a 6.23 earned run average. Montgomery left Boras and later accused the agent of having “butchered” his free agency.

Like those players, Bregman has opt-outs after each year of his deal. He clearly had an idea of where he considered his value to be and went out looking for it this winter. He didn’t fully get everything he was looking for, leaving some long-term money on the table to get the AAV he wanted in the short term. He will have the ability to try again in the future, perhaps as soon as eight-ish months from now.

For the Tigers, though they didn’t get a deal done, it does showcase a greater willingness to spend than they have otherwise. Since Scott Harris has taken over as president of baseball operations, they have avoided long-term commitments. No free agent has signed a deal longer than two years. The club did agree to a six-year extension with Colt Keith, but that only committed the club to his pre-existing window of control. The three club options could keep him around beyond that period but the club will also have the ability to walk away.

The Bregman negotiations show that there are no hard lines against making longer deals and that the club would consider making such an investment if the stars aligned. Perhaps the Tigers could circle back to Bregman next winter if he opts out, though their interest will naturally depend on how things play out in Detroit this year. Young infielders like Keith, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Torkelson should all be vying for playing time and their performances could determine how forcefully the Tigers look to make a big infield addition next winter.

Twins To Give Harrison Bader “Significant” Playing Time In Left Field

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Harrison Bader has covered all three outfield positions in his career, but the vast majority of his playing time has come in center field. That shouldn’t come as any surprise. Bader’s bat is poor, to say the least; he has a career .698 OPS and 90 wRC+. However, most teams can stomach sub-par offense at a premier defensive position like center field, and Bader isn’t just any defender. With 50 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 76 Outs Above Average (OAA) in his eight-year MLB tenure, Bader is one of the best outfielders the game has to offer. Since his debut in 2017, only four active outfielders have accumulated more DRS, and none has more OAA. That’s the kind of player almost any team would want in center field.

“Almost” is the key word in that sentence. Of those four active outfielders with more DRS than Bader over the last eight years, one is Byron Buxton. Buxton also ranks second to Bader in OAA, and on a per-game basis, Buxton far outpaces Bader in both metrics. On top of that, Buxton is the superior hitter, with an .844 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the past six seasons. And, of course, Buxton just so happens to be the starting center fielder (and the longest-tenured player) on the Twins – the same team with whom Bader signed a one-year, $6.25MM contract earlier this month.

When the Twins signed Bader, one might have thought his primary role would be as a backup for the oft-injured Buxton. Bader is rather injury-prone himself, and both players might benefit from splitting time at the demanding defensive position. Yet, it seems as if that won’t be Bader’s only job. On Monday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that the righty-batting Bader is expected to take over for either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner in a corner spot when the Twins are facing a southpaw starter. To that point, manager Rocco Baldelli told Helfand that Bader was more likely to play left field than right, given the outfield dimensions at Target Field.

Earlier today, Dan Hayes of The Athletic provided further details about Bader’s role in Minnesota. Hayes writes that the Twins will have the 30-year-old play left field “regularly,” and he will see “a significant amount of playing time” at the position.

Perhaps the Twins are hoping that Bader’s bat will play up if he has the platoon advantage more often. After all, his career 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching would look perfectly acceptable in a corner spot. Then again, his offense has dropped off in recent years; his 95 wRC+ against lefties from 2022-24 might be more representative of the kind of hitter the Twins will get in 2025. Thus, the best way for Bader to contribute as a left fielder is to do what he does best: provide top-tier defense. Considering his strong track record in center field, one would think Bader could thrive at an easier defensive position. Indeed, it might take him a bit of time to adjust to the new role (he’s only played 13 MLB games in left) but his elite range and strong arm should play anywhere in the outfield. What’s more, his declining sprint speed – it has dropped in each of the past three years, going from the 97th percentile to the 74th – should be less of a concern in left. All told, left field still isn’t the best place for a player of Bader’s skill set, but if the Twins are concerned about starting Larnach (career 60 wRC+ in 187 PA vs LHP) and Wallner (career 44 wRC+ in 108 PA vs LHP) against lefties, it’s not the worst idea to prioritize defense in left field instead.

With all that said, Bader could still end up playing most of his games in center field. After all, Buxton has not started more than 87 games in center in a single season since 2017. So, there is little doubt the Twins signed Bader to be an insurance policy for Buxton. Yet, it seems as if that wasn’t the only reason, and Bader is going to be more than just a well-compensated backup in Minnesota. When Buxton needs a day off, the Twins will hardly lose a step (defensively) in center. Meanwhile, on days when Buxton and Bader are both patrolling the grass, this team will have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, regardless of who’s standing in right.

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