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MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Painter, Royals, Yankees, Mets

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Today's mailbag gets into the Nationals' offseason approach, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do this year, the Royals' outfield, how small market teams can compete, the Yankees' third base situation, the Mets' rotation, and more.

Steve asks:

The Nationals have now spent over $50 million in this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you like their strategy of building depth with upside players with lower $ risk per player to keep the books clean for the coming years?

OTOH, they could have gone all in and met Bregman's rumored price of $210 million over 7 years, and had enough money for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and adding Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for their bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.

Which route do you like better?

Just to review, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free agency at a 2025 AAV cost of $38.75MM.  They also traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who is earning $10.3MM this year.

Despite adding $49MM in total '25 AAV, the team's CBT payroll is only $138MM.  The question is whether 2025 is/was the time for this team to pounce.  Owner Mark Lerner doesn't think so, based on comments made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.  Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here's what Lerner said to Svrluga:

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”  He paused. “You could get nauseous thinking about it,” he said, laughing.

Despite the additions, FanGraphs projects the Nationals for only 73 wins this year.  And even though - as I'll show later in the mailbag - teams sometimes outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that still might not be enough for a wild card.

The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base.  Bregman alone doesn't make this team a likely contender, and he turns 31 in March.  I don't think he fit as the team's Jayson Werth move.  I doubt Nolan Arenado would've accepted a trade to D.C., and he doesn't sense for this team anyway.

The Nats still owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a few catching prospects in the pipeline, so I can see why they didn't do anything there.  Likewise, adding a bigger bat than Bell might mean 74 or 75 wins instead of 73.

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Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?

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Last week, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that the A's had opened extension negotiations with outfielder Lawrence Butler. General manager David Forst declined comment on Butler specifically but implied that he's not the only player with whom they've had discussions.

"We’ve had conversations with a couple other players other than (already-extended DH Brent Rooker), and those talks are ongoing," Forst told Drellich. "It is an important thing for us to lock guys up (heading) into Las Vegas and make sure that we keep the core of what we think is a really good young team together, ongoing."

MLBTR covered Butler's extension candidacy at the time of Drellich's report. With Forst's comments in mind, it's worth taking a speculative look at who else the A's may try to sign over the next few weeks.

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MLBTR Podcast: Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Can the Braves seriously go into the season with this rotation depth? (1:50)
  • Could the Braves add to the bullpen before the season starts? (9:25)
  • Why is David Robertson not signed? (13:00)
  • Could the Mets and Jose Iglesias reunite on a one-year, $5MM deal with a vesting option? (17:10)
  • Should the Cubs have signed Jose Iglesias instead of Justin Turner? (24:35)
  • Could there be a battle forming for the final rotation spots for the Tigers between Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda and Jackson Jobe? (30:35)
  • Are the Mariners waiting for a pitching injury on another team to trade Luis Castillo? (38:05)
  • When a team like the Dodgers does significant deferrals, what year’s payroll does the money go on? (43:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Notes: Erceg, Massey, Blanco

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Lucas Erceg got his first legitimate run as a closer after the Royals acquired him from the A’s at last year’s deadline. The flamethrowing righty took to that role, working to a 2.88 earned run average while striking out 32% of opponents over 25 regular season innings. Erceg recorded 11 saves and six holds while only surrendering two leads. He went 3-3 on postseason save opportunities while tossing six innings of two-run ball in his first playoff action.

Despite Erceg’s excellent finish, the Royals made a significant move at the back of their bullpen this winter. They signed All-Star righty Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $22MM free agent deal. That appeared to be a fallback after the Royals missed in a couple bigger swings at an outfield acquisition. Estévez has been a closer between the Angels and Phillies over the past two seasons. His 57 saves since the start of 2023 ranks ninth in MLB.

The Royals haven’t made an official decision about who’ll take the ninth inning this year. It doesn’t seem there’ll be any animosity on Erceg’s part if the team defers to Estévez’s experience. “I don’t really care what my role is going to be,” Erceg told Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He praised GM J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro for giving him a heads-up that the organization was closing in on a deal with Estévez before the signing was announced. Erceg said his primary focus is on helping K.C. return to the postseason whether as a closer or in a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Kansas City has thrown a decent amount of resources at fixing a bullpen that was a major weakness in the first half of last season. They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals last summer, but a back injury essentially tanked his second half. Harvey has battled myriad injuries over his career, but he’s currently healthy and ticketed for a setup role. Erceg could join him as a bridge to Estévez at the back end. They’re still a little light from the left side. Angel Zerpa and Sam Long are coming off productive seasons but don’t have huge bat-missing upside. It’s nevertheless a far stronger group than they carried into 2024.

Along with Estévez, Jonathan India was Kansas City’s other significant offseason acquisition. He’ll slot atop the lineup while potentially moving around the diamond defensively. Both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are likely to get reps at third base and in left field in addition to their work at the keystone. They’ve each gotten starts in left field and at second base in the first week of camp, with India picking up an appearance at third base as well. Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star writes that they’re likely to continue alternating positions every few games this spring.

In one injury development, depth outfielder Dairon Blanco has been sidelined by soreness in his right Achilles. An MRI this week revealed calcification in the tendon, Quatraro told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). That’ll shut Blanco down for a few days but shouldn’t be a major concern. The speedster stole 31 bases in 38 attempts over 88 games last season.

This Date In Transactions History: Nolan Arenado’s 2019 Extension

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Today marks six years since the signing of the largest contract in Rockies history. On February 26, 2019, Colorado signed Nolan Arenado to a seven-year extension that guaranteed $234MM. It kept the star third baseman from reaching the open market the following offseason. The franchise-record deal also included a full no-trade clause and the right to opt out after the 2021 season.

It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.

A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.

By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.

Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.

The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.

Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.

The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.

After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.

Padres Re-Sign Reiss Knehr To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Reiss Knehr and the Padres have reunited on a minor league deal, as first reported by Mad Friars. It’s unclear if the ACES client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee or if he’ll head to minor league camp.

Knehr, 28, missed the 2024 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in the previous summer. The Padres outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2023 season. He spent the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list for Triple-A El Paso, then became a free agent at season’s end.

Prior to that lengthy layoff, he was a depth arm for the Friars. He spent the 2021 through 2023 seasons getting frequently optioned to El Paso and back. Over those three years, he tossed 48 1/3 innings in the majors, allowing 5.96 earned runs per nine. His 15.5% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate were both subpar figures. That was mostly relief work, with a few “starts” lasting a few innings, topping out at four frames.

As one would expect, his minor league work was more interesting. In 2021, he tossed 75 2/3 innings on the farm over 16 starts and three relief appearances. He had a 3.57 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. In 2022, he posted a dismal 6.88 ERA in a swing role at the Triple-A level, but got back on track the following year. In 2023, he tossed 36 2/3 innings for El Paso, almost exclusively in relief. His only start lasted just three innings. He had a 3.93 ERA for the Chihuahuas, pairing a 27.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate.

With those intriguing Triple-A numbers in 2023 and a lost season in 2024, perhaps the Friars will keep him in a relief role from now on. If he shows some health and effectiveness, he will provide the club with a bit of extra non-roster depth. If his contract is selected, he is now out of options but he has barely a year of service time.

Twins, Brady Feigl Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are in agreement with reliever Brady Feigl on a minor league contract, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. He’ll head to Triple-A St. Paul to begin the season.

Feigl, who turned 34 in December, has pitched professionally for over a decade. He spent time in the Atlanta and Texas farm systems without getting to the majors. Feigl logged a couple years in independent ball and pitched well enough to secure a minor league deal with the Pirates last winter. The 6’4″ southpaw was rewarded for his perseverance with an MLB call last August. He made his debut and pitched in mop-up work against the Cubs, surrendering six runs in 1 2/3 innings.

Pittsburgh designated Feigl for assignment after that lone appearance. They ran him through outright waivers and kept him in Triple-A until he elected minor league free agency at season’s end. While his debut didn’t go as hoped, he had a nice year in the upper minors. Feigl pitched 60 innings of 4.05 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout rate. He has a 3.27 ERA across 124 Triple-A frames over parts of four seasons.

On The Future Of The Blue Jays

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A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.

Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.

Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.

The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.

The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.

That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.

Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.

Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.

That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.

Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.

That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.

A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.

As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.

The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.

This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.

Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.

The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.

While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.

Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.

The D-backs’ Closing Competition

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The Diamondbacks entered the offseason in search of a new first baseman, a closer and some right-handed thump in the lineup, among other items on the to-do list. They’ve broadly succeeded, acquiring Josh Naylor from the Guardians to replace free agent Christian Walker and re-signing Randal Grichuk. The Snakes haven’t found a slam-dunk closer, but they signed a new (co) ace, shocking the industry with their signing of Corbin Burnes for six years and $210MM.

While there’s still one marquee free agent reliever on the market — David Robertson has yet to sign — it appears increasingly likely that the Diamondbacks will largely go with the arms who are already in camp as they look to sort out the ninth inning. Arizona’s payroll is already projected for a franchise-record $195MM. That’s a new highwater mark by a measure of nearly $30MM. We can always adopt the “never say never” mentality as long as there are a few viable closing options on the free agent and trade markets, but the D-backs may already have their closer in house. At present, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez appear to be the front-runners.

Puk, acquired at the deadline from the Marlins in exchange for young slugger Deyvison De Los Santos and outfielder Andrew Pintar, enjoyed a quietly dominant season in 2024. His cumulative 3.15 ERA looks more good than great, but it’s skewed by a failed experiment wherein the Marlins tried to stretch him back out as a starter early in the season. Puk was clobbered for 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen, and from that point forth was arguably the best reliever in the sport.

After giving up 17 earned runs in his four starts, Puk only allowed 11 more earned runs for the entire season. He posted a 1.72 ERA out of the bullpen in 2024, fanning a colossal 35% of his opponents against a terrific 5.1% walk rate. Opponents averaged only 86.6 mph off the bat against him in that time with a middling 32.6% hard-hit rate. Per Statcast, only five of his opponents’ batted balls in that time were barreled. Puk allowed a run in his second appearance with the D-backs and then went on a run for the ages, rattling off 23 2/3 scoreless innings with a 38-to-4 K/BB ratio. He punched out 44.7% of opponents in that career-best run.

Martinez was nearly as dominant for the early portion of the 2024 season. The young flamethrower posted a 1.60 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and mammoth 64.5% grounder rate in his first 50 innings of work. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate were nearly identical to Puk’s marks as a reliever. An 11.5% walk rate was in clear need of improvement, but for a 22-year-old who averaged better than 100 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker, it’s hard to draw up a more promising start.

That run of dominance didn’t last the full season, however. While Martinez remained a solid reliever, his 3.90 ERA over the final 27 2/3 innings of his season was far less eye-catching. The young righty’s strikeout rate actually ticked up during that span, perhaps due to roughly doubling the usage of his four-seamer at the expense of his sinker, but his grounder rate fell sharply. There was surely some poor fortune in play, as Martinez was hampered by a .388 BABIP during this stretch despite continuing to limit hard contact (and allowing only one home run).

Whether in the ninth inning or working in a setup capacity, both Puk and Martinez will be in high-leverage roles this season. They were two of the D-backs’ top five arms in terms of their average leverage index — but not the top two. Paul Sewald’s departure in free agency subtracted one of Arizona’s top leverage arms, but it was actually righty Ryan Thompson who found himself most frequently in high-leverage spots, followed by Martinez and then by fellow righty Kevin Ginkel.

The 32-year-old Thompson isn’t the prototypical power arm often associated with pressure-packed, late-inning situations. He’s a sidearming righty who averages just 91 mph on his sinker and 92.5 mph on his lesser-used four-seamer. Thompson’s 19.1% strikeout rate was well below the 23.4% league average among relievers. However, he boasts a 61% grounder rate, rarely issues walks (5.5%) and posted nearly identical results versus righties (.254/.299/.377) and lefties (.254/.293/.377). He picked up two saves and 24 holds.

Ginkel, 30, has quietly emerged as a key arm in Phoenix. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly establish himself as a reliable reliever until his age-28 season, in 2022. Over the past three seasons, he’s tossed 164 2/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA. It’s not necessarily flashy, as Ginkel is more good-than-great in terms of strikeout rate (26.5%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%), ground-ball rate (47.1%) and fastball velocity (96 mph average) in that time. Even with the lack of one standout area in which he truly excels, his above-average rates across the board have made him a consistent and reliable late-inning option for manager Torey Lovullo.

Also entering the mix is 34-year-old Kendall Graveman, who signed a one-year, $1.35MM deal after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. With 24 saves and 56 holds from 2020-23, Graveman is no stranger to late-inning work. After moving to the bullpen in Sept. 2020 with the Mariners, Graveman rattled off 197 1/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 49.2% grounder rate. At his best, Graveman averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and offered a Ginkel-esque blend of above-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates while sitting around 96 mph with his main offering. Whether he can return to that form in the wake of last year’s shoulder surgery is an open question.

However it shakes out, the Snakes look to have a solid quintet of arms rounding out the late-inning group at Chase Field. Lefty Joe Mantiply offers a solid middle-inning complement who has picked up around 12 holds per year over the past four seasons. A starter who doesn’t make the rotation (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson) could hold down another spot. Bryce Jarvis, Kyle Nelson and non-roster candidates like Shelby Miller, Scott McGough, John Curtiss and Josh Winder (among others) will vie for what’s likely one open spot.

There’s enough left on both the trade and free agent markets that it’s not impossible to envision a change still impacting Lovullo’s bullpen composition. Signing Robertson might be too pricey, likely pushing the D-backs into $200MM+ payroll territory for the first time, but if GM Mike Hazen ultimately finds a trade partner for Montgomery, any savings could make Robertson feel likelier. The Padres have been open to offers on Robert Suarez. Trading within the division probably isn’t either team’s first choice, though. A Ryan Helsley trade before next offseason feels virtually inevitable but also seems likelier to happen in-season at this point.

In any bullpen, there’s almost always room for one more addition. But, if this is the group the D-backs take into the season, they can still feel good about an impressive breadth of experienced late-inning arms who have the makings of a strong overall unit.

The Other Outfielder The White Sox Would Love To Trade

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The White Sox are one of the few clubs in baseball firmly in rebuild mode. They went 81-81 in 2022, followed by a 61-101 showing the year after. Last year, they reached a historic low, setting a modern-day record with 121 losses.

In that time, they have been willing to trade any established big league player for prospects. At the 2023 deadline, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Jake Burger, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton and Kendall Graveman were sent out. Prior to the 2024 season, Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer, Gregory Santos and others were flipped. At the most recent deadline, Michael Kopech, Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham, Eloy Jiménez, Paul DeJong and Tanner Banks packed their bags. This offseason, Garrett Crochet was the headliner.

There’s not much left to move at this point. Luis Robert Jr. is the big name still on the roster. Since he had an injury-marred 2024, the Sox have held him for now, hoping that a healthy and productive showing in 2025 will increase his trade value leading up to the deadline.

Whether a trade comes together or not, the Sox aren’t committed to Robert. He’s entering the final guaranteed season of his contract. There are $20MM club options for 2026 and 2027. Those give him more upside if he bounces back but the Sox will presumably decline the first of those if he has another wasted season.

The only player with a guaranteed contract beyond this year is Andrew Benintendi. His five-year, $75MM pact runs through 2027. The Sox would presumably love to trade him as well, as the first two years of that pact haven’t gone well. Last summer, it was reported that the Sox were shopping him. They also reportedly explored some scenarios where Benintendi and Crochet would be packaged together, though they wisely didn’t go down that path, which would have resulted in a lesser prospect package coming back for Crochet.

The Sox don’t really need to the cost savings. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had a payroll near $200MM as of a couple of years ago. That was down to $123MM last year. RosterResource projects them to be at just $81MM in 2025. As mentioned, Benintendi is the only deal on the books after this year. He will make $16.5MM in both 2025 and 2026, followed by $14.5MM in 2027. That’s a total of $47.5MM over three years, or $15.83MM in terms of average annual value.

That’s not superstar money. Players like Joc Pederson, Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, Tyler O’Neill, Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar got AAVs in the $14-19MM range this winter. Those are mostly solid-but-flawed regulars, rather than stars.

Unfortunately, Benintendi hasn’t been near “solid-but-flawed” lately. Through the end of 2022, Benintendi had hit .279/.351/.431 for a 109 wRC+. In his first two years with the Sox, his line has been down at .246/.309/.374, which translates to a 90 wRC+. His defense has also taken a turn for the worse. Prior to coming to Chicago, Outs Above Average was already not a fan, giving Benintendi a grade of -16 for his career, but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +25. Over the past two years, he’s been worth -18 OAA and also -16 DRS.

Perhaps health played a bit of a role there. Benintendi spent some time on the injured list last year due to left achilles tendinitis. His 26.7 mile per hour sprint speed was the lowest of his career, so maybe that impacted his ability to run the ball down.

Regardless, it’s been a rough couple of years. Needless to say, Benintendi will need a big bounceback to have any trade value at all. Though it may look bleak now, there is actually a reason to have some hope, as Benintendi finished the 2024 season on a strong note.

His aforementioned IL stint for the achilles injury was from June 2 to June 12. At the time he landed on the IL, he had a brutal line of .195/.230/.284. After being reinstated, he hit .251/.326/.470 the rest of the way for a 124 wRC+. He hit 16 home runs in 322 plate appearances while also drawing walks at a 9.9% clip and striking out just 18.9% of the time. His .264 batting average on balls in play was actually below the .290 league average, so it wasn’t a product of batted ball luck.

It’s possible this was a fluke in another way. 16% of Benintendi’s fly balls left the yard in that stretch. That’s well above his 8.3% career rate and the 11.6% league average last year, despite his exit velocity and hard hit rate being near his previous levels. However, it’s also possible it came from a change in approach. In that hot finish in 2024, Benintendi pulled the ball at a 49.1% clip and also hit fly balls at a 43.9% rate. For his career, those numbers are just 36.6% and 38% respectively.

Whether that late-season surge was just a small-sample blip or a meaningful course correction remains to be seen. Like Robert, Benintendi’s trade value is at a low ebb and a big correction will be required for the Sox to be able to get anything in return. But if Benintendi can perform well to start 2025, it could then be legitimately framed as a year-long bounceback.

Given the aforementioned financial situation, the club should be willing to eat most or all of Benintendi’s deal. They aren’t a revenue-sharing club, so unlike the A’s or Marlins, they could bottom the payroll out without worrying about the possibility of an MLBPA grievance. Still, there are reasons for them to prioritize prospect returns as opposed to cost savings.

They aren’t likely to return to contention by 2027. Even if they do get good by then, Benintendi’s salary shouldn’t stand in the way of them making moves. Owners surely don’t love throwing money at a hopeless team, but the payroll will still be incredibly low in 2026 and 2027 even if the Sox are still paying Benintendi. If he is playing well this year, then perhaps a contending club with a tight payroll and/or competitive balance tax number would be enticed by the possibility of getting Benintendi at a low financial cost, giving up more prospect capital instead.

Robert will have much of the focus in 2025 and rightfully so. He has huge upside, having put together a borderline MVP performance in 2023. He will be one of the top deadline trade candidates if he gets anywhere near that. Benintendi won’t have as much of the spotlight but he will have his own chance to play his way into some attention. Though he’s been around for a while, he’s only 30 years old. His deal is underwater right now but isn’t atrocious by MLB standards. He’s had a rough couple of years but was legitimately good for the final three-plus months last year. Though he’s something of a forgotten man at this point, it’s possible he could play himself onto a contender over the next few months.

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