MLB Mailbag: Devin Williams, Braves, Blue Jays, Prospects
This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.
Charles asks:
As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.
He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?
Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually. For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.
My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction. Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM. We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance. But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.
I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip. I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.
Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration. With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings. For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend. Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.
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MLBTR Podcast: Kevin McGonigle, The Padres’ Franchise Valuation, And Edwin Díaz To Miss Time
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Tigers signing Kevin McGonigle to an eight-year extension (1:30)
- José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones reportedly having an agreement in place to buy the Padres (13:10)
- Dodgers right-hander Edwin Díaz requiring elbow surgery (27:20)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Are the Braves for real? And what do they do once their injured guys get healthy? (32:20)
- If a salary cap is theoretically implemented, how would it work with the teams currently over the cap? (40:50)
- Can Michael Wacha of the Royals keep up his dominance? (45:50)
- What are the Reds going to do with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl? (48:15)
- Can the Nationals keep up this level of offense? And if so, should they have invested more in this year’s pitching staff? (52:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Lenyn Sosa Traded, And Injury Concerns For The Astros, Cubs And Orioles – listen here
- Previewing The 2026-27 Free-Agent Class – listen here
- Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Padres Sign Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito‘s protracted 2025-2026 free agency stint has finally ended. The Padres announced that they have signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option. He’ll receive a $3MM guarantee, with half of that total via buyout on a 2027 mutual option worth $8MM. Giolito can increase the buyout by $3MM based on starts in 2026. There is an additional $2MM in unlockable bonuses tied to awards voting. To make room on the 40-man, the Padres announced that righty Bryan Hoeing has been transferred to the 60-day IL as he recovers from flexor surgery. Giolito will start with Single-A Lake Elsinore and must be on the major league roster within the next 25 days. Giolito is represented by CAA Sports.
For Giolito, his second foray into free agency was not nearly as successful as his first. His 2019 to 2021 run with the White Sox had him positioned as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Among 46 starters who threw at least 350 innings in that time frame, Giolito was sixth with a 30.7% strikeout rate on the back of a fantastic fastball-changeup pairing. His propensity for fly balls (41.7 FB%) and homers (13.7 HR/FB%) possibly prevented “ace” designation, yet Giolito was easily one of baseball’s best pitchers in this time frame.
However, more middling results followed in 2022 and 2023, with the homers especially ticking up in 2023. His 41 big flies were second only to Lance Lynn. Despite a poor platform year by his standards, Giolito and his representatives were able to parlay the showing into a $38.5MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the ’24-’25 seasons, with some additional incentives and player option structure.
Unfortunately, a torn UCL brought his 2024 season to an abrupt halt. An internal brace procedure (which carries a shorter rehab timeline than a traditional Tommy John ligament graft) had him back on the mound at the end of the following April, where he threw 145 innings. ERA evaluators/predictors like xFIP (4.59) and SIERA (4.65) were more bearish on his work than his actual results (3.41). Notably, Giolito’s strikeouts were down from his heyday with the White Sox. He profiled more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the tremendous upside he flashed from 2019-2021 with Chicago.
Despite a solid return to the rotation, Giolito suffered from flexor irritation and a bone issue at the conclusion of the 2025 season. Although he was set to return to the club after resting, the Red Sox’s early postseason exit meant Giolito had no chance to pitch again before free agency. Under the hood, Giolito looked like a muted version of his best days, but he was a perfectly adequate starter in 2025.
His fastball velocity checked in about a one mile per hour (93.3) lower than his best seasons with the White Sox (94.2), but this was a continuation of a trend started in 2022. Among 82 pitchers who tossed at least 140 innings last season, Giolito was 69th in K-BB%, indicating both below-average ability to miss bats and control the zone. However, he was able to limit homers more effectively than ever before: his 9.3 HR/FB% was below league average, and the first time he recorded a single-percentage mark in a season of 25 or more starts.
Giolito declined his end of a $19MM mutual option (essentially a formality) with the Red Sox for 2026, and it perhaps came as no surprise that the Red Sox passed on extending Giolito a qualifying offer after the 2025 season due to some lingering injury trepidation. He is the last of the MLBTR 2025-2026 Top 50 MLB Free Agents to sign, and comes in far below expectations in years and total guarantee. Even without draft pick compensation attached, Giolito sat on the free agent market well into April, despite some notable playoff aspirants like the Braves, Cubs, and Padres losing multiple starters during Spring Training and the early season.
Speaking of the Padres, the news couldn’t come at a better time. Injuries and slowed recoveries have decimated the top of the rotation over the past few months. Yu Darvish had his second UCL surgery after the playoffs concluded in early November. Darvish is currently rehabbing on the restricted list away from the team and has reportedly considered retirement. Joe Musgrove, recovering from his own Tommy John surgery back in October 2024 and expected to open the season in the rotation, has had his rehab interrupted and was placed on the IL to open the season. 2025 workhorse Nick Pivetta hit the IL after four starts with a flexor strain. Surgery is not currently on the table, but given the recurrence of the strain (Pivetta also hit the IL for a short period in 2024 with the same issue), the Padres will give Pivetta ample time to rest his ailing arm in the hopes of having him available for a postseason run.
These injuries have thinned the depth of the rotation considerably in San Diego. Juan Soto trade returns Michael King and Randy Vasquez are providing quality innings, but the back of the rotation has shown mixed results to this point. Walker Buehler, though a far cry from his Dodgers’ peak, is looking like he still might have something left in the tank. Former Rockies All-Star German Marquez has a 3.86 ERA but less exciting numbers under the hood. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron was hit hard in his 2026 debut.
All three back-end starters have struggled to give the Padres consistent innings at the back of the rotation. Seven of the Padres’ first 23 games have had a starter fail to record an out in the fifth inning. Though Griffin Canning is on the horizon while working through a Triple-A El Paso rehab, the Padres decided that it was worth fortifying the rotation depth for the summer ahead.
Giolito’s contract stipulation for a Major League recall within the next 25 days would put him in line for a mid-May debut. This should give him four turns through the rotation to build up his arm after missing all of Spring Training. Should the rotation remain healthy after Canning joins, the Padres will have some decisions to make. As MLB veterans with ample service time, Buehler and Marquez can’t be optioned without their consent. Someone may end up in the bullpen or pushed off the roster entirely, depending on future health.
For now, San Diego will be happy to kick the roster-crunch can down the road. It’s an affordable, low-risk signing of an MLB-quality arm that could help the team weather the injury storm. The deal is much in the vein of recent similar signings by PBO/GM A.J. Preller. Operating under some payroll constraints after the death of former owner Peter Seidler and the imminent sale of the club, Preller has prioritized creative, low-dollar guarantees to Pivetta, Marquez, Buehler, and now Giolito to minimize the CBT hit (the Padres are currently in the first luxury payor tier). For his part, Giolito gets the opportunity to pitch for a potential contender with a recent record of rehabilitating starting pitchers’ value as he looks to surpass his 2025 platform year for a better offer next offseason.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was the first to report the $3MM guarantee and the $2MM in awards bonuses. Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH had the $1.5MM salary and buyout on the $8MM mutual option plus the $3MM in escalators. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune had the details on the initial minor league assignment and recall stipulation.
Braves To Select JR Ritchie
The Braves are promoting pitching prospect JR Ritchie to start tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Nationals, reports Harrison Smajovits of Sports Illustrated. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Didier Fuentes is being optioned back to Triple-A Gwinnett in the corresponding transaction. Atlanta will also promote Carlos Carrasco to work in long relief.
Fuentes was just recalled this morning. He started this evening but labored over three innings, allowing seven hits and a walk. Fuentes’ inefficiency forced the Braves to bring in Martín Pérez for long relief. The veteran southpaw tossed three innings of two-run ball, which obviously took him out of consideration to start tomorrow’s ballgame.
Atlanta needed a spot starter for the finale of their four-game set in Washington. Long relievers José Suarez and Dylan Dodd each pitched on Tuesday, and Dodd is reportedly going on the injured list. A bullpen game would have been a lot to ask. Reynaldo López only completed one inning last night, so every Braves reliever has pitched within the past two days.
Ritchie was the logical candidate to take the ball. The 2022 supplemental first-round draftee has been Gwinnett’s best pitcher in the early going. Ritchie has only given up three runs through his first 27 1/3 innings while striking out 26.2% of opposing hitters. He has tiptoed around erratic command, as he’s walked 13 batters and plunked four more.
Although the 22-year-old isn’t a finished product, he’s likely to be up and down throughout the season as a key rotation depth piece. Baseball America ranks Ritchie as the #2 prospect in the Atlanta system, crediting him with a deep arsenal and a chance to be a #4 starter. Ritchie has been in the 93-94 mph range with his four-seam fastball and sinker this season. He throws four distinct offspeed pitches — a changeup, cutter, slider and curveball.
It’s past the point at which Ritchie can reach a full year of service time in 2026. He was on the preseason Top 100 lists at each of BA, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. He therefore meets the threshold for the Prospect Promotion Incentive and could “earn” a service year if he finishes top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. The Braves would not receive an extra draft choice in that scenario because he wasn’t on the MLB roster for 172+ days.
There’s a decent chance this is a one-off appearance regardless. Ritchie will be the only healthy, optionable pitcher on their active roster aside from top setup man Dylan Lee. Atlanta has an off day on Monday. The Braves could option Ritchie after tomorrow’s appearance to get an extra bullpen arm up for their weekend series against the Phillies. Pérez would be ready to start in the middle of next week. Spencer Strider probably only needs one more rehab outing before he returns to the rotation.
Rangers Outright Marc Church
The Rangers announced Wednesday afternoon that they’ve outrighted reliever Marc Church to Triple-A Round Rock. He was designated for assignment last week when Texas called up Cal Quantrill and Gavin Collyer.
This is the first career outright for Church, who’ll stick in the organization without holding a spot on the 40-man roster. The Atlanta native was an 18th-round pick out of high school in the 2019 draft. Church received a $300K signing bonus that reflected a higher ceiling than his draft spot indicated. He developed into a reasonably promising bullpen prospect until injuries sidetracked him.
Church nabbed a 40-man spot following the 2023 season. He missed most of the following year with a rotator cuff strain. Church did get an MLB cameo in the final weekend of the ’24 campaign. He built that into an Opening Day bullpen spot a year ago but was optioned out after five appearances. Church spent much of the season on the minor league injured list for a second straight year. He battled elbow, oblique and lat issues before sustaining a teres major strain that bothered him this offseason.
Optioned back to Round Rock to open the ’26 season, Church has shown signs of rust. He has walked four batters and hit another over his first 4 2/3 innings. His stuff has still looked sharp, as he’s averaging 96 mph on his heater with an 86 mph slider. Church has also toyed with a changeup after rarely using it in previous seasons.
It’s moderately surprising that no other team was willing to take a flier on the stuff, though the league was evidently deterred by the recent health history. Church will try to iron out the command woes to put himself back on the radar in a Texas bullpen that again looks sharp despite being mostly patched together via modest free agent signings.
Cubs Notes: Assad, Palencia, Hodge
The Cubs are moving Javier Assad to the bullpen, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). He makes way in the rotation for Matthew Boyd, who was activated from the 15-day injured list to start tonight’s game against the Phillies.
Assad keeps his spot on the active roster for now, as southpaw Luke Little was optioned out in the corresponding move. The righty opened the year on optional assignment to Triple-A. Chicago recalled Assad when Boyd went down on April 6 with a biceps strain.
The 28-year-old Assad took three turns through the rotation, pitching quite well in two of those appearances. Assad worked 5 2/3 scoreless innings to beat the Rays in his season debut. He allowed only an MJ Melendez solo home run across 5 2/3 frames in Sunday’s 2-1 victory over the Mets. The intervening appearance was rough, as Philadelphia torched him for nine runs and a loss on April 13.
In other bullpen news, Counsell provided an update on injured closer Daniel Palencia. The Cubs placed him on the 15-day injured list last Friday. The team initially announced it as a left oblique strain. Further testing revealed that Palencia actually suffered a mild lat strain, relays Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.
Lat strains can lead to extended absences for pitchers, though this one isn’t expected to be serious. Palencia is a right-handed pitcher, so a left lat strain isn’t as concerning as one on the other side of his body would be. He’s likely to resume throwing this week and could be reinstated around two weeks from now. Palencia is eligible to return next Wednesday, and while he’s unlikely to be ready quite that soon, he’ll probably be back shortly after a minimal stay. Caleb Thielbar has picked up Chicago’s two saves since Palencia landed on the shelf.
The Cubs also announced that Porter Hodge underwent his previously reported UCL surgery this week. The team indicated it’ll be a 12-14 month recovery, as he required a Tommy John ligament reconstruction and the internal brace procedure. He’ll inevitably move to the 60-day injured list once the Cubs need a 40-man roster spot. Hodge will begin next season on the injured list as well, probably requiring another 60-day IL stint.
Braves To Select Carlos Carrasco
The Braves are selecting veteran righty Carlos Carrasco onto the MLB roster, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Left-hander Dylan Dodd will go on the 15-day injured list with an oblique strain. Carrasco will be available in long relief behind JR Ritchie, who is coming up to start tomorrow in his major league debut.
Atlanta already had two openings on the 40-man roster. They lost Osvaldo Bido on waivers to the White Sox over the weekend and designated Ian Hamilton for assignment this morning. Adding Ritchie and Carrasco will put their roster back at capacity.
The 39-year-old Carrasco will be in the big leagues for a 17th season. He made three starts for Atlanta last summer as part of a revolving door of depth arms while the rotation was decimated by injury. Carrasco allowed 15 runs across 13 2/3 innings and finished the season in Triple-A. The Braves brought him back on a new minor league deal at the beginning of the offseason.
Carrasco is out to a nice start with their top affiliate in Gwinnett. He carries a 1.71 earned run average through his first four appearances. Carrasco has fanned 21% of opposing hitters with a sub-6% walk rate. He’s only in the 90-91 mph range on his fastballs, leaning more heavily on his slider and changeup to compensate.
The arsenal hasn’t played at the MLB level for the past few seasons. Carrasco owns a 6.36 ERA between four teams since the start of the 2023 campaign. Atlanta needed a length option for a bullpen that has gotten a lot of work over the past couple days.
Their last two starters, Reynaldo López and Didier Fuentes, threw a combined four innings. While Ritchie is a very good prospect, he’s not a lock to work deep in the game in his first outing against a big league lineup. He’ll take on a Nationals team that has started the season hot offensively behind fantastic months from James Wood and CJ Abrams. Excluding the just optioned Fuentes, Ritchie and Carrasco have been Atlanta’s two best Triple-A starters.
A’s Place Denzel Clarke On Injured List
The Athletics placed center fielder Denzel Clarke on the 10-day injured list before today’s loss in Seattle. Colby Thomas was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to take the vacated active roster spot.
Clarke is dealing with a bone bruise in his right foot. Manager Mark Kotsay told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that the issue relates to a lingering injury to his big toe that Clarke has battled for some time. It reached a point where the defensive stalwart felt better shutting things down rather than continuing to play through the discomfort.
This is Clarke’s first full season at the MLB level. He’s living up to his reputation on both sides of the ball. Clarke has rated highly in center field and had another of his patented home run robberies to take one away from Drake Baldwin on April 1. The 6’3″ Clarke is among the most talented defensive players in the sport. His bat is well behind, and he’s hitting .170 while striking out 24 times in 60 plate appearances (40%).
Lawrence Butler got the start in center field today against Logan Gilbert. The A’s had turned to Zack Gelof at the position for the first two games of the Seattle series. A career-long second baseman, Gelof has begun working in the outfield this year after the A’s traded for Jeff McNeil to handle the keystone.
It’ll likely be Gelof taking the bulk of the center field work. Butler can play there on occasion, with Carlos Cortes drawing into right field on those days. The righty-hitting Thomas will also be in the mix after a strong start to his year in Triple-A. Thomas was batting .309/.397/.574 with five homers in 17 games for Las Vegas. He debuted last season and popped six homers in 132 plate appearances, but he struck out 49 times (37.1%) en route to a meager .267 on-base mark.
Marlins To Designate Austin Slater For Assignment
The Marlins are designating veteran outfielder Austin Slater for assignment, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid. Esteury Ruiz has played four Triple-A games on a minor league rehab stint and will be activated for Friday’s series opener in San Francisco. Miami’s 40-man roster count will drop to 39.
Slater signed a $1MM free agent contract at the end of Spring Training. He had been in camp on a minor league deal with Detroit but didn’t crack their roster. The Fish wanted a righty-hitting platoon outfielder with Ruiz shelved by an oblique strain and starting left fielder Kyle Stowers down with a hamstring strain. Stowers returned over the weekend, and Ruiz’s forthcoming return pushes Slater off the roster.
It wasn’t a great showing for the 33-year-old Slater. He played in 12 games and collected just four hits, all of them singles. He took four walks but struck out nine times in 28 plate appearances. Slater has pinch hit a few times but hasn’t been in Clayton McCullough’s starting lineup since April 12. Heriberto Hernández gets some work as a righty-hitting left fielder. Utilityman Javier Sanoja can also play out there.
Ruiz, an offseason trade pickup from the Dodgers, adds a speed element off the bench. He hasn’t hit much in the big leagues but raked in Triple-A last year. Ruiz stole 67 bases for the A’s back in 2023, his only full season at the MLB level.
Miami has five days to trade Slater or place him on waivers. He has sufficient service time to decline an outright assignment and seems likely to be released.
Dodgers Notes: Snell, Sasaki, Bullpen
The Dodgers are cruising along with an MLB-best 16-7 record (tied with the Padres) and a share of first in a competitive NL West. Still, more pitching help should be on the way soon. Lefty Blake Snell is slated to start for Single-A Ontario Tower Buzzers tonight as he builds up for his season debut, according to Sonja Chen of MLB.com.
Shoulder fatigue in his throwing arm dates back to last year. While Snell was able to toss an excellent 95 1/3 innings between the regular season and postseason last year, the Dodgers erred on the side of caution and placed the left-hander on the IL to open the season. Snell is tabbed for three innings tonight and will need four starts to build up to the five-inning/75-pitch MLB level, placing his earliest big league return timeline as late May.
Even in Snell’s absence, the Dodgers rotation hasn’t missed a beat. Their 14 quality starts lead all of MLB entering play today. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani have been typically excellent, but Justin Wrobleski has offered some surprising stability at the back of the rotation (despite a lack of strikeouts). Between Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan, and Roki Sasaki, the Dodgers will have a rotation decision to make in the coming weeks upon Snell’s return.
Sasaki has recorded outs in the fifth inning in only two of his four starts this season. Given his excellence operating out of the bullpen in last year’s championship run, it’s natural to wonder if Sasaki could be ticketed for relief. At least for now, Sasaki’s role appears to be safe. In response to a hypothetical Sasaki in relief, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes gave Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo of The Athletic a flat “No.” Reading between the lines, it appears the final rotation spot will fall to Wrobleski or Sheehan, with Wrobleski currently occupying the inside track. Performance in the coming weeks could shift this assessment (and injuries to the rest of the rotation could upend it entirely).
It’s an interesting position by Gomes and the organization, given Sasaki’s struggles, but it reflects the Dodgers’ long-term belief in his potential. Sasaki surrendered only a single run in 10 2/3 innings last postseason, but wasn’t dominant by any means. His 2.3 K-BB% was lackluster, and ERA models like xFIP (5.72) and SIERA (5.35) didn’t love his work in an admittedly small sample. However, Sasaki was able to corral the long ball issues (again, small sample size) that have plagued his MLB work up to this point. In all likelihood, Sasaki’s gutsy October performance had little bearing on the organization’s long-term vision for him.
Sasaki’s 2026 starting work looks largely similar to 2025, with a marginal improvement in strikeouts and more fly balls leaving the yard on a rate basis. But if the Dodgers remain committed to locking him into rotation, one of Wrobleski or Sheehan will be squeezed off the roster or the bullpen. Fortunately, both Wrobleski and Sheehan have options remaining, meaning either of them can be freely moved between the major league club and its minor league affiliates them being exposed to waivers. Sasaki also has options remaining, meaning the Dodgers could theoretically allow him to continue working as a starter in the minors if they want to keep him stretched out as a starter, though this route seems unlikely.
LA’s bullpen pecking order is also currently under evaluation after closer Edwin Diaz went under the knife to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow. While manager Dave Roberts acknowledged top lefty Tanner Scott could receive the majority of the save opportunities, he stopped short of anointing him interim closer, plainly stating (via Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register) the approach as “…the closer-by-committee way of doing it.” High-leverage righty Brock Stewart, currently rehabbing with Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers, is also nearing a return. Between lefties (Scott and Alex Vesia) and righties (Blake Treinen and Stewart), Roberts should have a multitude of options at his disposal to attack hitters in the late innings until Diaz’s reinstatement.