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Giants To Sign Harrison Bader

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The Giants have a notable upgrade to their outfield defense in place, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $20.5MM contract with free agent outfielder Harrison Bader. The Vayner Sports client can earn an additional $500K via incentives, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $21MM.

Bader, 31, has been a free agent for three consecutive offseasons but now lands the multi-year deal that’s previously eluded him. He signed one-year deals with the Mets and Twins, respectively, over the past two winters. Bader turned in a career-best performance in Minnesota and was red hot for the Phillies down the stretch after joining them in a deadline swap, and the market has rewarded that strong 2025 performance.

In 501 plate appearances between Minnesota and Philadelphia last year, Bader slashed .277/.347/.449 with 17 homers, 24 doubles, a triple and 11 steals (albeit in 18 attempts). His 7.8% walk rate was the second-best he’s posted in a 162-game season, though 2025’s bloated 27.1% strikeout rate was also his worst full-season mark since 2019. Much of Bader’s success can be attributed to an increase in playing time and a hefty .359 average on balls in play, but it bears mentioning that his 10.2% barrel rate and 40.3% hard-hit rate were personal bests in a full big league season.

Strong as last year’s performance was — 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+ — offense has never been Bader’s calling card. He’s been clearly above average in four of his nine MLB campaigns, but on the whole, Bader is a .247/.313/.401 hitter in a bit more than 3000 career plate appearances, which just barely shy of average. His glovework, however, is among the best in all of baseball, regardless of position.

Bader has played 5925 innings of center field defense in his career and been credited with a gaudy 51 Defensive Runs Saved and 67 Outs Above Average. He played more left field than center field in Minnesota, largely in deference to Byron Buxton, and notched positive marks in both DRS (7) and OAA (3) through 496 frames.

Overall, Bader has played 6799 innings of outfield defense in the majors, dating back to his 2017 MLB debut. In that time, only four outfielders — Mookie Betts, Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho, Michael A. Taylor — have bested his 67 DRS. No outfielder in that time has topped Bader’s 77 OAA. Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Nolan Arenado and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only four majors leaguers at any position with a better OAA total in that time.

With Bader turning 32 in June, it’s fair to at least wonder whether he’ll begin to slow down over the next two seasons. However, there’s no reason to think that’ll be the case — at least based on recent history. This past season’s average sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second was actually an improvement over Bader’s 2024 mark of 28.2 ft/sec and right in line with his 2023 mark. He’s no longer covering the flat-out elite 30 ft/sec he did earlier in his career, but Bader’s 2025 sprint speed still landed in the 85th percentile of all big league position players. He’s a clear plus runner.

It’s a near certainty that Bader will take that plus speed and range to Oracle Park as the Giants’ new center fielder. Jung Hoo Lee handled the bulk of center field work in San Francisco this past offseason but ranked as one of the worst defenders in the game along the way (-18 DRS, -5 OAA). Lee’s arm strength sat in the 91st percentile of big league outfielders, per Statcast, but his range was near the bottom of the scale. Lee should have the arm to move to right field, where his lack of range would be better suited. Even if Bader’s bat regresses and checks in a bit shy of average, the defensive upgrade alone will be enormous for the Giants.

Assuming even distribution of that $20.5MM, Bader’s contract bumps San Francisco’s actual cash payroll to a projected $195MM, per RosterResource. Their luxury tax payroll is quite a bit higher, clocking in at about $221.5MM, but that still leaves more than $20MM between their current standing and the $244MM threshold at which luxury penalties begin. San Francisco has paid the tax in the past, but only rarely. They were over the line in 2024, which stands as their only time exceeding the threshold in recent memory.

For the time being, it doesn’t seem likely that the Giants will climb back to that level of spending. San Francisco is in the market for a second baseman but has been looking at the trade market — specifically, affordable targets like CJ Abrams and Brendan Donovan (“affordable” in terms of salary — not necessarily prospect capital). They’ve added Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle to the rotation and could continue to poke around the rotation and bullpen markets, but ownership has publicly expressed an aversion to signing any free agent pitcher to a long-term deal, making a run at a top free agent like Framber Valdez feel unlikely.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the two-year agreement. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the financial terms.

Which Team Will Sign Framber Valdez?

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Framber Valdez stands atop the pitching class and is arguably the offseason’s last marquee free agent. He and Zac Gallen are the two remaining players who declined qualifying offers. Those two pitchers and Eugenio Suárez are the three unsigned players who ranked among MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents entering the winter.

Suárez was always going to be capped to two or three years by his age. Gallen is coming off a down season and is a candidate for a pillow contract with an opt-out. On the other hand, Valdez came into the winter as arguably the best available pitcher. His age and middling second half performance — plus the bizarre cross up incident with catcher César Salazar that could lead to some questions from teams — meant he hit the market on a bit of a down note himself. Valdez is nevertheless coming off a 3.66 ERA showing with an above-average 23.3% strikeout rate and massive 58.6% grounder percentage across 192 innings. It’s his fourth straight full season and sixth year in a row with a sub-4.00 earned run average.

Valdez’s age (32) made a six-year deal a stretch. A five-year contract seemed more plausible, with a strong four-year pact appearing to be the floor. There hasn’t been much about Valdez’s market or whether his camp would target a shorter deal with opt-outs as Spring Training approaches. Valdez clearly hasn’t found a deal to his liking, yet he’s probably the last top-of-the-rotation starter who’ll change teams this offseason.

A Tarik Skubal trade has always felt like a long shot. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Shane Baz are off the trade market. Dylan Cease landed with the Blue Jays on a seven-year deal within the first couple weeks of the offseason. The market didn’t value NPB righty Tatsuya Imai as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Valdez has higher upside than any of the other remaining starters in free agency (e.g. Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander).

Valdez has most frequently been linked to the Orioles. They entered the offseason needing a top-end starter, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has ties to the southpaw from his days in the Houston front office. The O’s acquired Baz in a trade to address the rotation and signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155MM free agent deal. There’s reportedly still room in the budget, but another $30MM+ annual salary for Valdez would cap a much bigger offseason than usual for the Orioles.

The Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox are all known to have met with Valdez around the Winter Meetings. They’ve each added a different marquee pitcher (Peralta, Cease and Ranger Suárez, respectively). The Astros have never seemed inclined to bring Valdez back. The Giants also met with the two-time All-Star, but they’ve consistently downplayed their desire to sign anyone long term.

Where does that leave Valdez? Will Baltimore or San Francisco get aggressive, or does the long wait open up the opportunity for a mystery team?

 

Cardinals Sign Nelson Velazquez To Minor League Deal

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The Cardinals announced their group of non-roster invitees to Spring Training this evening. Corner outfielder/designated hitter Nelson Velázquez is among the group, indicating they’ve signed him to a minor league contract.

Velázquez, 27, is looking to get back to the majors for the first time in two seasons. He bounced around last year after being outrighted off the Royals’ 40-man roster during Spring Training. Kansas City released him in May after he hit .202 across his first 33 Triple-A contests. Velázquez needed to settle for a job in the Mexican League but raked over 49 games there to play his way back to affiliated ball. He latched on with the Pirates on a minor league deal and played the final month with their top affiliate in Indianapolis.

The righty-hitting Velázquez carried over his strong form from Mexico in his second look at Triple-A pitching. He closed the season with a .284/.329/.554 line with five homers in 79 plate appearances. It wasn’t enough to get an MLB call from the Pirates, but he secured a non-roster invite from St. Louis.

Velázquez has split his major league work between the Cubs and Royals. He went on a power barrage in the second half of the ’23 season, slugging 14 homers over 40 games after the Royals acquired him from Chicago. That’s his only real run of big league success, as he struggled on either side of that scorching stretch. Velázquez has a .212/.286/.433 batting line in 615 plate appearances, essentially the equivalent of one full season. He has 31 homers in that time but the batting average and on-base marks haven’t been sufficient.

The Cardinals are amidst a rebuild that should open some playing time in the outfield. They already did so indirectly with the Willson Contreras trade, which is expected to bring Alec Burleson in from the outfield as the primary first baseman. St. Louis could move left fielder Lars Nootbaar, although they may prefer to wait until midseason to show his health after postseason heel surgeries. Jordan Walker is lined up for another look in right field in what looks like a make-or-break year for the former top prospect. There’s less opportunity available at designated hitter, where Iván Herrera will get the majority of the playing time when he’s not catching.

Velázquez has some similarities to Walker and current prospect Joshua Baez as right-handed power bats. The Cardinals certainly aren’t going to force him into the lineup over younger players who could be core pieces. He’s their only non-roster outfielder with MLB experience and seems likely to open the season at Triple-A Memphis.

The Brewers’ Rotation Options After Peralta Trade

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The Brewers traded ace Freddy Peralta and swingman Tobias Myers to the Mets last week. Milwaukee generally, though not always, trades its best players as they approach their final year before free agency. There was never much chance they were going to meet Peralta’s asking price on another contract. That left the front office to decide whether to move him for controllable pieces or hold him through his final arbitration year and collect a compensatory draft pick when he signed elsewhere.

They opted for the former once the Mets put Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat on the table, albeit in a deal that also cost them a potential rotation arm in Myers. It’s obviously not the start of a rebuild for a team that had MLB’s best record and advanced to the NL Championship Series a year ago. They’re counting on their pitching pipeline to continue to produce as they aim for a fourth straight division title.

How will Pat Murphy’s starting staff line up?

Locks

Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff is back as the veteran anchor and their clear #1 starter. The righty accepted a $21.05MM qualifying offer, a move that probably surprised Milwaukee’s front office to an extent. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold acknowledged that getting Woodruff back made them more comfortable parting with Peralta (relayed by Curt Hogg of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The 2026 payroll factors into that to an extent, yet Peralta’s $8MM salary shouldn’t have been a hang-up even by Brewers’ standards. There were other players they could have moved (e.g. Andrew Vaughn, Trevor Megill) if ownership mandated a payroll reduction.

The Brewers can feel comfortable about having an established top-of-the-rotation starter. The big question is how many innings they can reasonably expect. Woodruff missed all of 2024 rehabbing from shoulder surgery. A handful of smaller injuries delayed his ’25 debut, and he sustained a season-ending lat strain after 12 starts. He has pitched 131 2/3 frames over the past three seasons. Woodruff enters camp fully healthy, but it’s fair to wonder if he can shoulder 150 innings.

Quinn Priester

The 25-year-old Priester is now the second-most experienced Milwaukee starter. He and Robert Gasser are the only other starters with more than a year of MLB service time; the majority of Gasser’s service came on the injured list working back from UCL surgery.

Priester began the ’25 season in Triple-A with the Red Sox. Dealt to Milwaukee in a rare April trade of significance, the former first-rounder was a revelation. He tossed 157 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball behind a massive 56.1% grounder percentage. Milwaukee had a stretch of 19 consecutive wins in his outings between May and September. Priester has serviceable but not elite swing-and-miss stuff. It’s a sinker-slider profile geared toward keeping the ball on the ground. That approach comes with some batted ball variability but plays well in front of a strong infield defense.

Upside Plays

Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski was arguably the #1 pitching prospect in MLB when the Brewers called him up in June. He began his career in electric fashion, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of his first seven starts. Milwaukee didn’t let him work deep into games, but he lit up the radar gun while missing plenty of bats. His performance wavered down the stretch, and evaluators’ longstanding concerns about his command pushed him into a bullpen role for the playoffs. Misiorowski impressed again in October, striking out 16 over 12 innings of three-run ball in a trio of postseason outings.

Overall, the 6’7″ righty finished his debut campaign with a 4.36 ERA across 66 innings. He’s certainly not going to be the back-end innings eater usually associated with a mid-4.00s ERA, though. Misiorowski has ace stuff with walk issues that may yet land him in high-leverage relief. He should get a full look in the rotation this year, albeit with questions about his start-to-start efficiency.

Logan Henderson

Henderson may not be a Misiorowski-level prospect, yet his 2025 debut was also highly anticipated by Milwaukee fans. He was called up in April and pitched well over four starts before being squeezed off the MLB roster. The Brewers brought him back up after the trade deadline. He made one start before being diagnosed with elbow inflammation and spending the rest of the season on the injured list. The 23-year-old righty allowed five runs while striking out a third of opponents over his first 25 1/3 MLB innings.

Baseball America ranked Henderson 96th on their Top 100 prospects list last week. They credit him with plus control and a plus changeup, while his 93 MPH fastball plays above its velocity because of his release angle and spin. Henderson has always been effective in the minors, posting a 3.26 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate over his career. Can he continue to miss bats at a high rate against MLB hitters without really trusting his cutter or slider? He might also run into some home run trouble as a fly-ball pitcher with average velocity whose fastball works best at the top of the strike zone. There are questions about the ultimate ceiling, but Henderson’s first five starts couldn’t have gone much better.

Brandon Sproat

Sproat will try to immediately replace Peralta in the starting five. He also landed in the back quarter of the aforementioned BA prospect list — a few spots above Henderson, in fact. Sproat has much bigger stuff, sitting 96-97 with above-average to plus grades on his slider, curveball and changeup. His command isn’t nearly as polished. Sproat walked 10.4% of opponents over 26 Triple-A appearances last year, and he was hit around a little bit over four starts as a September call-up. The 6’3″ righty has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter, but the command will need to improve if he’s going to get there.

Back-End Arms

Chad Patrick

Patrick was a 26-year-old rookie whom the Brewers acquired from the A’s in 2023 for journeyman infielder Abraham Toro. There wasn’t a whole lot of fanfare when he broke camp for his MLB debut last spring. Patrick went on to a seventh-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting after tossing 119 2/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball. There’s a decent chance he would have placed more highly had the team’s rotation depth not pushed him to Triple-A when Woodruff returned to action on July 6.

The righty spent six weeks in the minors through no real fault of his own. He worked in a swing role once he was recalled in the middle of August. Patrick pitched well in either role and had an excellent postseason, firing nine innings of two-run ball with 11 strikeouts. He has a six-pitch mix led by a plus cutter that helped him punch out a quarter of opponents. Patrick probably doesn’t have the ceiling of some of his teammates but should enter camp with a leg up on Henderson and Sproat for the fourth or fifth starter role.

Robert Gasser

Acquired from San Diego in the Josh Hader trade, Gasser had an impressive five-start debut in 2024. He blew out and underwent elbow surgery that kept him off an MLB mound until last September. The southpaw started two games and gave up six runs (only two earned) with four walks and five strikeouts across 5 2/3 frames. His minor league rehab numbers were quite a bit better. The 26-year-old Gasser has a 3.72 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate in just over 200 career Triple-A frames. He’s on the older side for a prospect because of the injury but still looks like a viable back-end starter.

Likely Relievers

Angel Zerpa, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall each have starting experience but fit better in the bullpen. All three were used primarily as relievers last season — with the Royals, in Zerpa’s case — and join Jared Koenig in giving Milwaukee a quartet of big arms from the left side out of the bullpen.

Zerpa has solid command and gets a ton of ground-balls, but his sinker/slider combination leaves him vulnerable to right-handed hitters. He’d probably need to pick up a splitter or cutter if he’s going to turn over a righty-heavy lineup twice in a game. Ashby hasn’t managed to stay healthy as a starter, while Hall’s command is too big an obstacle. They’re all capable of working multiple innings and could get some action as openers, as Ashby did a few times in the postseason to match him up against Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani.

The other two starters on the 40-man roster, Carlos Rodriguez and Coleman Crow, project as up-and-down arms. Rodriguez has decent stuff but has been walk-prone in the minors. He has allowed 18 runs in 22 career big league innings. Milwaukee added Crow to the roster at the beginning of the offseason to keep him out of minor league free agency. He’s the organization’s #30 prospect at Baseball America and has fringy stuff despite impressive strikeout rates in the minors.

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Even without Peralta, Milwaukee has a talented group of starters. Their collective lack of experience behind Woodruff means they’ll probably add a fifth starter or swingman on a one-year deal to reduce the load on their young arms. As is always the case for the Brewers, they’re likely to mix in some tandem starts/openers while shuffling pitchers up and down from Triple-A. Woodruff is their only starter who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, while Rob Zastryzny is their only out-of-options reliever. They’ll have a lot of roster flexibility if they want to incorporate bullpen games or a six-man rotation to keep pitchers’ innings in check.

Royals, Hector Neris Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals are in agreement with veteran righty Héctor Neris on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The Octagon client gets a non-roster invite to MLB camp.

Neris, 36, is a well-traveled reliever who surpassed the 10-year service milestone last season. He split the year between the Braves, Angels and Astros and tossed 26 2/3 innings over 35 combined appearances. Neris managed an impressive 28.2% strikeout rate but had untenable walk and home run marks, leading to a 6.75 earned run average.

It has been a couple seasons since Neris was a productive late-game arm. He was a leverage reliever for most of his time with the Phillies and Astros earlier in his career. Neris had arguably his best season in 2023, turning in a career-low 1.71 ERA across 71 appearances with Houston. He was knocked around in the postseason that year but had pitched well during the World Series run one year earlier, when he fired six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts.

Neris’ splitter has continued to miss bats over the past couple seasons, but his command and velocity have gone in the wrong direction. His fastball was in the 95 MPH range at its peak but dropped to a 92.4 average last year. Neris has always been a fly-ball pitcher, and the waning stuff means hitters have found it much easier to do damage when he’s forced to challenge them. Opponents hit .366 with four homers and doubles apiece off the fastball last year.

The Royals will give him a look in Spring Training to see if he can turn things around. They have a fairly deep pitching staff that doesn’t offer many opportunities to break camp barring injuries. Alex Lange and Daniel Lynch IV each have a minor league option remaining, which could leave one bullpen spot up for grabs right now. It’s unlikely everyone will get through Spring Training fully healthy. The Royals haven’t made many non-roster additions. Neris joins old friend Jose Cuas as their only minor league bullpen pickups with MLB experience, and the latter did not receive an invite to big league camp.

Cubs To Sign Gabe Klobosits To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs and right-hander Gabe Klobosits have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of 7News Boston. It wasn’t specified whether or not the righty would receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Klobosits, 31 in May, has a limited major league track record. He pitched in 11 games for the Nationals in 2021. In 11 1/3 innings, he allowed seven earned runs, surrendered 13 hits, issued five walks and hit one batter while striking out five.

He had pretty good numbers in the minors that year, tossing 38 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, allowing just 1.64 earned runs per nine. He struck out 28.9% of batters faced while walking opponents at an 8.8% clip.

The years since then have been more challenging. Around Opening Day 2022, he was designated for assignment by the Nats. The A’s claimed him but they also designated him for assignment in June and released him shortly thereafter. A player being released after a DFA is often a sign of injury, since injured players aren’t allowed to be placed on outright waivers. Klobosits’ transaction tracker doesn’t say he was placed on the minor league IL at that time but he hadn’t pitched for about three weeks prior to the DFA.

He was with the Blue Jays in the second half of 2023 on a minor league deal and posted a 4.74 ERA over 19 innings. The past two years, he’s been putting up good numbers in indy ball. In 2024, he posted a 2.18 ERA in 45 1/3 innings for the Gastonia Ghost Peppers of the Atlantic League. He struck out 24.6% of batters faced but with a 14.4% walk rate.

Last year, he split his time between the Cleburne Railroaders in the American Association and the High Point Rockers of the Atlantic League. Between those two clubs, he tossed 34 2/3 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.

Alexander says that Klobosits has recently been hitting 98 miles per hour on the gun. That would be a bit above his last affiliated action. He averaged 94.7 miles per hour with the Nats in 2021 and then 93.9 mph with the Jays in Triple-A in 2023.

For the Cubs, there’s nothing wrong with giving him a non-roster pact and taking a close-up look at him. The team has had some good results with unheralded arms. A minor league deal with Brad Keller last year went so well that he got a $22MM deal this offseason, though he had a much better track record prior to becoming a Cub. If Klobosits can get a roster spot, he still has a minor league option remaining.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Yankees Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger have reunited on a new contract. The Boras Corporation client reportedly gets a five-year deal with a $162.5MM guarantee, with no deferrals. He gets a $20MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $32.5MM in each of the first two years, $25.8MM in each of the next two, then $25.9MM in the final season. Bellinger can opt out after the second or third season, though those opt-outs are pushed by a year if the 2027 season is canceled by a lockout. Bellinger also gets a full no-trade clause. The Yankees have not yet announced a corresponding 40-man roster move.

It always seemed like a good bet that Bellinger would return to the Yankees, since their first season together was a success. But there was a standoff recently, as the club and Bellinger’s camp had a bit of a gap. It was reported earlier this month that the Yankees had an offer out to Bellinger. No details on that offer were revealed but it was reported a few days later that they had made a second offer.

Subsequent reporting on the negotiations suggested the Yanks had put forth a five-year offer worth more than $150MM, but with Bellinger’s camp hoping to get the length pushed to seven years. That gap seemingly put things on ice for a moment, with alternative paths available to both parties. The Yankees showed interest in other players, including outfielder Luis Robert Jr., while Bellinger still had potential fits with teams like the Dodgers and Mets.

But the market has changed quite a bit in the past week. The Dodgers and Mets got into a bidding war over Kyle Tucker, with the Dodgers coming out on top. The Mets then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette to bolster their infield, followed by trading infielder Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox as part of their package to land Robert.

Those moves took away some alternate paths from the Yankees but also removed a couple of logical landing spots for Bellinger. He had also been connected to the Blue Jays, Giants and Phillies throughout the winter but none of those clubs seemed to be strongly in the mix. The Yanks seemingly didn’t budge far from where their reported offer was a few weeks ago, though they did add the opt-outs. It was reported a few days ago that they were willing to include those.

Though Bellinger and Boras didn’t quite get the seven years they were looking for, the deal comes in fairly close to expectations from the beginning of the offseason. For instance, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to land a guarantee of $140MM over five years. Bellinger has secured himself a floor just above that. There’s also a path to boosting his future earnings again with more opt-out opportunities down the line.

He is now 30, turning 31 in July, so he will be 32 years old by the end of the 2027 season. Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber both just got five-year deals this offseason, with Schwarber going into his age-33 season and Bregman age-32. Schwarber got a $150MM guarantee and Bregman $175MM, though Bregman’s deals had deferrals which pushed the net present value pretty close to Schwarber’s guarantee.

For Bellinger, he can bank $85MM over the next two years, when factoring in the signing bonus and the front-loaded salaries. When his first opt-out decision comes around, he would still have three years and $77.5MM left on this deal. If he continues to be a productive player between now and then, he should be in a good position to opt out. The lockout-specific provision of the opt-outs appears to be a way for the Yankees to get at least two years of Bellinger’s services.

While Bellinger has maintained some future earning potential, he has also secured himself a strong base after a few years of uncertainty. When he first hit the open market, he had shown both huge upside and a massive downside. In 2019, then with the Dodgers, Bellinger was the National League MVP. He hit 47 home runs that year. Offense was up all around the league thanks to some juiced balls but Bellinger also drew walks at a 14.4% clip and only struck out 16.4% of the time. His .305/.406/.629 line led to a 161 wRC+, even in the heightened offensive environment of that season. He stole 15 bases and got strong reviews for his defense. FanGraphs credited him with 7.8 wins above replacement.

But his production backed up a bit in 2020 and he infamously injured his shoulder in the NLCS during a post-homer celebration with teammate Enrique Hernández, as seen in this video from MLB.com.

Bellinger underwent surgery after the season and his performance was awful for two years after. He slashed .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers after the latter campaign. He latched on with the Cubs for 2023, signing a one-year deal worth $17.5MM. He had a strong bounceback season in Wrigley, hitting 26 home runs and slashing .307/.356/.525 for a 135 wRC+.

Going into 2024, Bellinger and his reps at the Boras Corporation were hoping to cash in. He had seemingly put the low points behind him. He was still young, going into his age-28 season, and had shown MVP upside. The previous offseason, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts had both secured 11-year deals. This was seemingly a way to lower the competitive balance tax hit of those deals, as a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a deal’s average annual value.

MLBTR expected this trend to continue with Bellinger, predicting him for a 12-year deal worth $264MM. That seemed to be at least somewhat aligned with what Bellinger and Boras felt he could get, as they reportedly went out looking to top $200MM.

It did not play out that way. Though Bellinger’s 2023 season was a success, there was seemingly some concern about some lackluster batted-ball data. And with the injury-marred seasons still somewhat fresh in the collective memory, his market never quite developed as hoped.

It wasn’t just Bellinger, as several other players lingered unsigned that season. They came to be known as the “Boras Four”, as they were all repped by the same agency. Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all settled for short-term deals well below expectations. Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with an $80MM guarantee, with chances to opt out after each season.

The first season of that pact wasn’t a roaring success, as Bellinger was good but not great. He hit 18 home runs and slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 108. Bellinger decided to forgo the first opt-out opportunity and stick with the Cubs. The team didn’t hold up their end of the reunion, however, as they shipped Bellinger to the Yankees. It was effectively a salary dump. The Cubs got Cody Poteet in return, whom they designated for assignment a few months later.

The Cubs ate $5MM in the swap, leaving the Yanks theoretically on the hook for $47.5MM over two years, though with Bellinger still having another opt-out remaining. As mentioned earlier, the Yankees and Bellinger turned out to be a great match. He hit 29 home runs on the year and slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. Yankee Stadium and its short porch in right field seemed to be a good fit for him, as he slashed .302/.365/.544 at home on the year. He stole 13 bases overall and continued to get good grades for his glovework, earning 4.9 fWAR.

Bellinger triggered his opt-out and took another crack at free agency, which led to this pact. As mentioned, it’s possible that Bellinger will return to the open market yet again in the future. For now, though it came about in circuitous fashion, he has pushed his earning floor above the $200MM he was looking for a few years ago.

His three-year deal with the Cubs paid him $27.5MM in each of the first two years. He collected a $5MM buyout when he opted out of the final season, meaning he banked $60MM on the pact. Combined with this deal with the Yankees, he’ll earn $222.5MM even if he doesn’t trigger either of the opt-outs in this deal.

For players taking the short-term route and hoping for more earnings later, this is another example of how the path is viable. It doesn’t always work out, as Montgomery will surely tell you, but the hit rate is pretty decent. Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, Bregman, Carlos Rodón, Pete Alonso and Carlos Correa have all signed two- or three-year deals with opt-outs and then later signed a longer deal worth nine figures.

For the Yankees, this gets their outfield back to its 2025 level. Both Bellinger and Trent Grisham became free agents at the end of last season but both have now re-signed. They project to line up in two outfield spots with Aaron Judge in another and Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter slot. Bellinger can also play a bit of first base but the Yanks could give Ben Rice the regular job there after his breakout season. Rice can also catch, so perhaps Bellinger would slide to first base if Rice is needed behind the plate.

It’s possible the Yankees now look to move some outfield depth in the wake of this deal. Jasson Domínguez was once a top prospect but had an underwhelming season in 2025. He was roughly league average at the plate but with poor defensive metrics. The Yankees also have Spencer Jones pushing for a job after he hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but he also struck out in 35.4% of his plate appearances.

Neither Domínguez nor Jones has a great path to playing time right now. That could change as the season goes along. Stanton is 36 years old and has made at least one trip to the injured list in seven straight seasons now. Judge will turn 34 soon. Even if he himself stays healthy, the Yanks may want to put Judge in the DH slot if Stanton is hurt.

Perhaps the Yankees will keep both Domínguez and Jones around as depth for such situations, as both players are still optionable, but either or both could also be trade fodder. Club owner Hal Steinbrenner has previously expressed a desire to keep the payroll beneath $300MM. The Yanks are now a bit over that. RosterResource has them at $304MM in terms of pure payroll, with a $318MM CBT number.

That CBT number is over the top tier, which is $304MM. Since the Yankees have paid the tax in at least three consecutive years, that puts them in the highest possible tax bracket. They were at about $285MM or so before the Bellinger deal, so they paid a 95% tax on the part of the deal pushing them to the top line and then a 110% tax on the part that went beyond it. In the end, they’re adding more than $30MM in taxes to their ledger, on top of what they are paying Bellinger. They still arguably need some pitching help, so perhaps they would trade from their outfield depth instead of adding more money via free agency.

For the other clubs in the league, this further narrows down the list of available options. As of the start of the year, there were still many players available in free agency or in trade, but the dominos have been falling in quick succession lately. The Cubs got a deal done with Bregman, which prompted the Red Sox to sign Ranger Suárez and the Diamondbacks to get Nolan Arenado. The Tucker deal pushed the Mets to Bichette and Robert, which may have helped the Phillies reunite with J.T. Realmuto and pushed Bellinger to get back together with the Yankees. The Realmuto deal seemingly led to Victor Caratini signing with the Twins. All that happened in the past 11 days.

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in less than three weeks. With Bellinger now off the board, the top unsigned free agents include Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suárez, Harrison Bader, Chris Bassitt and others. There are still a few theoretical trade candidates out there, including Brendan Donovan and MacKenzie Gore.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Yanks and Bellinger were in agreement on a deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the five-year length and guarantee. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic first reported the lack of deferrals. Passan then reported the opt-outs, signing bonus and no-trade clause. Nightengale then reported the salary for the first two seasons. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the full salary breakdown. Nightengale added the detail of the opt-outs being pushed in the event of the 2027 season being canceled. Photos courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

Twins, Joe Ryan Avoid Arbitration

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The Twins and right-hander Joe Ryan have reached agreement on a new contract, therefore avoiding arbitration, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He’ll be guaranteed $6.2MM on the deal, in the form of a $6.1MM salary and then a $100K buyout on a $13MM mutual option for 2027.

Ryan was one of 18 players to not have an agreement in place when the filing deadline passed earlier this month. He is going into his second of three arbitration seasons, having made $3MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $5.8MM this year. The Twins filed just above that at $5.85MM, with Ryan himself at $6.35MM, a gap of $500K.

Most teams these days adopt a “file and trial” approach, which means they cut off negotiations of one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from filing absurdly high numbers in an attempt to set out an aggressive bargaining stance. An arbiter can only pick the player’s or the team’s number, not a midpoint.

Even if a team does have a “file and trial” policy, exceptions are made for deals that are longer than one year, even if that extra year is an option. That gives the club a path to avoid a potentially contentious hearing while vaguely sticking to their policy. A deal with an option can’t be used as a comparison point in future arb hearings as well, which is a factor.

Arbitration hearings are generally viewed as a normal part of the business but occasional situations have occurred where the relationship between a player and a team have been damaged. Corbin Burnes said as much after his hearing with the Brewers three years ago. Ryan and the Twins have steered clear of that possibility by settling on a number in between their respective filing figures.

The mutual option is mostly just an accounting measure to move part of the payment to the end of the season via that buyout. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both parties. Even if the option is turned down, Ryan would still be under club control for 2027.

Ryan was in a number of trade rumors last summer as the Twins were undergoing a fire sale of sorts. They sold off most of their bullpen and Carlos Correa but held some other players, including Ryan. It was initially expected that they would look to move him this winter but have since pivoted to an attempt to return to contention in 2026.

Given his relatively modest salary and extra year of club control, he would still have a lot of trade value at the deadline if he is healthy and the Twins fall back in the standings, though the club is hoping to avoid that scenario and would prefer Ryan to be pitching meaningful games for the team in September and October.

Minnesota’s arbitration class is now settled. As for the rest of the league, there will now be no more than 15 hearings this year. As mentioned, 18 players didn’t have a deal as of the deadline. Since then, Cade Cavalli, Bryce Miller and now Ryan have reached new deals to avoid hearings.

Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I will get going in a couple hours, at 3pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time if you are so inclined!
  • Let's get going!

Mr Redlegs

  • What's the restriction on when you can trade a newly signed player? e.g. if the White Sox wanted, could they assume Seranthony Dominguez salary and trade him for a prospect now verses waiting until the deadline?

Steve Adams

  • Any player signing as a free agent cannot be traded until the following June 15 unless he consents to it.

Amazins

  • Do you see Peralta sigining extension with Mets? How much would get it done?

Steve Adams

  • I assume they'll try to extend him, yes. David Stearns has shown pretty definitively that he prefers to eschew long-term commitments, particularly to pitchers. He knows Peralta well from Milwaukee and knows Peralta has signed one deal prioritizing comfort and security over maxing out on the open market.I imagine they'll aim for something like four years total (beginning in 2027, since he's already signed for 2026) and at a massive AAV. Something like $140-160MM total from 2027-30. He'd be 34 at the end of that contract.

Drake

  • So who plays RF for the Giants? Lee or Bader?

Steve Adams

  • Jung Hoo Lee was statistically one of the worst CFs in baseball last year, but his arm strength rated well. Bader is elite in CF. He'll play there. Lee will slide to the corner.

Al

  • What do you see is the most likely scenario for Matt Shaw.

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Angels, Nick Sandlin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels and reliever Nick Sandlin are in agreement on a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The right-hander is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Sandlin, 29, has pitched in parts of four big league seasons, primarily suiting up for the Guardians. Cleveland shipped him to Toronto as part of last offseason’s Andrés Giménez swap, however. Sandlin wound up pitching only 16 1/3 innings with the Jays, as a lat strain and elbow inflammation led him to spend the bulk of the season on the injured list. Toronto designated him for assignment following the season — effectively non-tendering him — rather than paying a projected $2MM in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Prior to that injury-marred Jays run, Sandlin was a quality member of the Cleveland bullpen. From 2021-24, he pitched 195 1/3 innings with a tidy 3.27 earned run average, a 27.7% strikeout rate, 11.4% walk rate and a 43.6% ground-ball rate. That walk rate is well north of league-average, but Sandlin’s strikeout rate was strong and his grounder rate was a hair better than par.

Sandlin has never been a hard thrower, but the 91.4 mph he averaged on his four-seamer last year and the 91.8 mph he averaged on his sinker were both career-low marks. That’s not necessarily surprising, given that a pair of arm injuries creates a pretty good chance he wasn’t pitching at 100% (or all that close to it) when he did take the mound.  Sandlin’s huge 14.8% swinging-strike rate from 2025 (again, small-sample caveats apply) was also outstanding.

Sandllin has 4.157 years of major league service time. If he spends even 15 days on the Angels’ major league roster or injured list, he’ll reach five years of service. That’s still not enough to become a free agent — unless he’s non-tendered — so if he pitches well, the Angels will have control over him for not only the 2026 season but also the 2027 campaign.

There should be room in the Anaheim bullpen for Sandlin to grab a spot if he pitches well during spring training or perhaps early in the season with Triple-A Salt Lake. Robert Stephenson, Kirby Yates, Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano are all locked into spots, and out-of-options righty Chase Silseth probably has a place locked down as well. That’d leave three spots for some combination of Ryan Zeferjahn, Jose Fermin, Cody Laweryson, Sam Bachman and a handful of veteran non-roster invitees (Sandlin, Miguel Castro, Angel Perdomo, Tayler Saucedo). The Halos will probably add some more arms to the spring competition before long, but Sandlin gives them another talented arm on which to roll the dice.

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