The Cubs and third baseman Alex Bregman are in agreement on a five-year, $175MM contract, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal does not have opt-outs, and Bregman receives a no-trade clause, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Bregman is a client of the Boras Corporation.
After opting out of his deal with the Red Sox, Bregman now gets the long-term contract he has been seeking. We at MLBTR ranked him at No. 5 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $160MM contract. Meeting that projection would have taken him through his age-37 season in 2031 at a $26.7MM average annual value. This deal gives him one less year but shatters expectations with a much higher $35MM AAV.
For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the latest move in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago. They have also signed reliever Phil Maton to a two-year deal, as well as relievers Jacob Webb, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, starter Colin Rea, and first baseman Tyler Austin on one-year deals. Shota Imanaga also accepted his qualifying offer to remain with the team.
Now, Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands at $247.6MM for 2026, putting the Cubs $3.6MM above the first luxury tax threshold.
Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his last year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to do well defensively, earning 1 Defensive Run Saved and 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.
A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.
Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.
While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, he has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.
That track record and Bregman’s still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, the Diamondbacks, and the Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. Now, one year later, the team is paying a whopping $60MM more to sign him.
With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. He debuted this year and made 437 PA with a line of .226/.295/.394 and a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.
Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson has averaged 4.1 fWAR per year since joining the Cubs in December 2022. He’s under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. As for Hoerner, he has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons. In 2025 alone, he was worth 17 DRS and 14 OAA at second base. He has averaged 4.4 fWAR from 2022-25 and won’t be moving either. With those two entrenched up the middle, that leaves Shaw as a multi-positional option heading into 2026.
With Bregman off the table, the Red Sox and other suitors will now have to look elsewhere for infield help. Boston has reportedly been interested in free agent Bo Bichette, Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes, and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte. The Diamondbacks tentatively made Marte available in trade talks but have instead decided to keep him. Houston’s GM Dana Brown has indicated that the club is not interested in trading Paredes. That could leave Bichette as a top target for Boston, though he is defensively limited and profiles as a second baseman in the long term, rather than a third baseman.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images


