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Theo Epstein On The Value Of One-Year Deals

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Theo Epstein has been prepping the Chicago fanbase for the eventual breakup of their 2016 team for a couple of seasons now. The blockbuster hasn’t come, and most of the faces of that championship team remain. After a disappointing exit from the wild card round – they managed just one run over a two-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins – Epstein’s comments again suggest changes are coming for the Cubbies.

Nine players remain on the roster from their World Series winner, and while that may not seem like a lot, it does constitute roughly 35% of a 26-man roster. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and Kyle Schwarber represent the longest-tenured group of Chicago players. Technically, manager David Ross can count as a 10th member of their title team still hanging around the clubhouse. Ian Happ and Victor Caratini didn’t debut until 2017. Jose Quintana joined the team at the 2017 deadline. Yu Darvish signed as a free agent prior to the 2018 season.

The pillars of this Cubs’ run will dwindle further in the coming years. Architect Theo Epstein is likely to depart after next season. Lester is a free agent this winter. Almora seems to be out of chances and in need of a change of scenery. Odds favor Heyward or Hendricks to be the “last man standing” as they both have contracts that should keep them in Wrigley through 2023. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber are each entering the final year of their contracts – assuming the Cubs pick up Rizzo’s $16.5MM option.

Epstein spoke about the latter group, providing typically candid analysis of not only the Cubs foursome, but more broadly about the value of one-year contracts. Per the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Epstein said:

I think there are going to be certain fundamentals that are true of this winter and of this market that have been true for decades. One of those is especially relevant in our situation, a one-year deal for a really talented player is a valuable thing. That’s to our benefit both to what we can do in constructing the 2021 team and having an additional year of control on certain players and also potentially to our benefit in the trade market as we look to make some changes. I think that’s a fundamental.”

Essentially, it sounds as if Epstein’s offering a ’fear not’ for those who think the Cubs have waited too long to return anything of value for the final year of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and/or Schwarber. To Epstein’s point, players on one-year deals are often devalued in the public square, but there’s a lot that can be extracted from a full year. Further, the flexibility a one-year deal affords shouldn’t be discounted – perhaps especially in our current climate. The fear of losing talent to free agency is understandable, but the more difficult gaff to overcome is the presence of “the albatross,” a highly-paid player on a long-term deal who no longer contributes on the diamond. Baez’s confounding 2020 is a testament to the swings that even talented players can experience year-over-year.

The trouble for Epstein is that Chicago’s current roster is flush with semi-expensive players on short-term deals who are coming off disappointing seasons. But to Epstein’s point – those players are still valuable. Whether the Cubs keep them or trade them, there’s always an opportunity cost. Said Epstein, per Sahadev:

There’s always a trade-off of being transactional and taking some of those players away from the current group and solidifying the future. There are trade-offs and balances that you have to be mindful of. The math simply changes as you get to a point where a lot of your best players only have one year left. It becomes less appealing to continue to invest opportunity cost in simply the present.”

Epstein has hit on a similar refrain in each of the last couple of years, and some changes have been made. They hired David Ross as the manager, they refrained from big-money free agent deals since signing Darvish (with the exception of Craig Kimbrel, who has only one more guaranteed season left on his deal), and they poured considerable energy into exploring trade options and/or extensions for their stars – but they haven’t made any of those deals.

Therein lies the rub for Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer. After years of exploring their options and walking the difficult path to try and sustain contention, they’re running out of time to pull off one of those – in Epstein’s words – “impactful, significant moves.” Whether or not they’re able to consummate that brand of deal this winter may depend on whether the 29 other GMs agree with Epstein about the value of talented players one-year deals.

Of course, Mookie Betts represents the most recent superstar player to be dealt on a one-year deal, and Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor is among those players who could be available this winter. Both players are probably more valuable in a vacuum than any of the Cubs’ foursome. Still, the Betts deal is instructive in so far as it necessitated the Red Sox’ willingness to take a step back, even though they received a major league regular as part of their return. The Cubs also have the option of packaging a couple players in the same deal, something he’s done in the past to extract additional prospect value..

Injury Notes: Rendon, Altuve, Hamels, Cubs, Orioles

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The Angels aren’t sure whether third baseman and top winter acquisition Anthony Rendon will be ready when they open their season Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays. Rendon, a former Nationals star whom the Angels signed to a seven-year, $245MM contract in free agency, has been dealing with oblique soreness since last week. If he’s not able to take the field in a few days, the Angels are expected to use David Fletcher and Matt Thaiss at the hot corner, per Bollinger. The Angels’ infield could also be missing Luis Rengifo, who Bollinger writes stands a “strong chance” of sitting out the opener on account of hamstring soreness.

  • Astros second baseman Jose Altuve left the team’s preseason game against the Royals on Tuesday with a left leg contusion, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. There’s now some question as to whether the former MVP will be healthy enough to go when the Astros’ season starts. “We’re hopeful he’ll be ready on Friday,” manager Dusty Baker said. “We’ll analyze him tomorrow and see where he is in the morning. Usually the day after that, you’re pretty sore.”
  • “It’s going to be a while” before left-hander Cole Hamels debuts in 2020, Braves manager Brian Snitker said Tuesday (via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). Hamels dealt with shoulder inflammation during spring training and has recently battled triceps tendinitis, thereby preventing him from facing live hitters over the past several months. Considering how short this season will be, the Braves may have trouble getting much bang for their buck out of Hamels. They inked the longtime workhorse to a one-year, $18MM contract over the winter. That guarantee turned into approximately a prorated $7MM when the season went from 162 games to 60.
  • Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who has been fighting rib and back issues, seems to be progressing. Manager David Ross said Tuesday (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com) that it “looks like all thumbs up from today” in regards to Rizzo. He’s slated to start the team’s exhibition game against Minnesota on Wednesday. Meanwhile, southpaw  Jose Quintana – who underwent surgery on his left thumb three weeks ago – issued an encouraging update on his status (per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune), saying he’s not feeling any pain. It remains unclear when he’ll be able to take the mound this season, though.
  • Orioles left-hander John Means will miss Opening Day because of arm fatigue, Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweets. As a result, offseason minor league signing and fellow southpaw Tommy Milone will start the Orioles’ opener against Boston on Friday. It’s not known when Means will be able to debut in 2020, but the Orioles are surely hoping it will be sooner than later. The 27-year-old Means was one of the few bright spots on Baltimore’s talent-deprived roster last season, after all, as he logged a 3.60 ERA/4.41 FIP with 7.03 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9 across 155 innings.

Anthony Rizzo Dealing With Rib Inflammation

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Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo is battling an injury that could jeopardize his chances of being in the team’s lineup on Opening Day, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports. Rizzo underwent an MRI on Wednesday that confirmed rib head swelling on his left side. He’s dealing with back spasms as a result of the swelling.

Rizzo, whose back has troubled him in the past, noted it’s a “frustrating” problem, adding, “I just can’t control the flare ups.” However, that doesn’t mean the 30-year-old will start the season on the injured list. Rizzo, manager David Ross and the Cubs’ training staff will continue to monitor his status leading up to the team’s July 24 opener.

Of course, in a shortened season, it becomes even more important for the Cubs to have a healthy Rizzo helping lead their offense. The three-time All-Star and beloved clubhouse presence turned in yet another impressive season in 2019, batting .293/.405/.520 (141 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 613 plate appearances. That type of production obviously can’t be replaced with ease, but if Rizzo does miss time at the beginning of the season, odds are the Cubs will deploy third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and catcher Victor Caratini at first base, Gonzales suggests.

Latest On Cubs’ Offseason Plans

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The Cubs have done surprisingly little this offseason to date. Despite being amidst a four-team race in the NL Central, their only external additions to the 40-man roster have been Casey Sadler, Jharel Cotton and CD Pelham.

If anything, much of the conversation the past few months has revolved around whether the Cubs could subtract from their roster. Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras have emerged as possible trade candidates, although it’s far from certain whether either will ultimately end up on the move. Extension talks with Anthony Rizzo went nowhere and were shelved, at least for the time being. Rizzo reiterated today (via Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic) that no talks between the sides are pending, although he again expressed a willingness to broach a long-term deal in the future.

Payroll constraints no doubt play a role in the lack of movement, as ownership reiterated yesterday. Particularly, the $208MM competitive balance tax threshold seems to be a key factor. The Cubs were one of three teams to exceed the CBT last season. With a projected $213.8MM luxury tax bill for 2020, per Roster Resource, they are certainly in danger of doing so again.

“The longer you go over [the luxury tax], the more you’re paying,” board member Laura Ricketts told reporters (via Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times). Chariman Tom Ricketts expanded on the luxury tax issue (via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic), calling the CBT “a real factor. It’s not the defining factor of this offseason. What we’re going to do with CBT is not something we discuss publicly. But fans should know there is a cost if you keep your payroll high enough long enough. You’re paying money into the league, which ultimately goes to other teams, and you can lose draft position. It’s a factor. It’s not the defining factor of the offseason.”

While penalties do escalate for those who repeatedly exceed the luxury tax, it’s highly questionable whether the tax should deter the Cubs from upgrading this offseason. Chicago paid $7.6MM in taxes last season. If they were to exceed the threshold for the second straight year, they’d be line to pay a 30% tax for every dollar spent between $208MM and $228MM.

Using Roster Resource’s $213.8MM estimate of Chicago’s current CBT ledger, the club would be in line to pay around $1.74MM in fees as things currently stand. That’s an insubstantial sum for MLB organizations. The draft pick penalty to which Ricketts alluded hardly seems an issue, as at least by public estimates, the Cubs are nowhere near the $248MM CBT level at which a team’s draft standing would be affected.

To be sure, it could benefit a team to get underneath the luxury tax line, if for no other reason than to reset their tax bracket. (Penalties escalate only when teams exceed the tax in consecutive seasons, so dipping below the threshold for one season resets future fees to the lowest level). Given the crowded NL Central, though, ownership’s focus on the CBT- even taking Ricketts at his word that it’s not “the defining factor of the offseason“- seems a bit odd.

Nevertheless, the Cubs’ front office is left to work within those constraints. They’ve made a couple minor league free agent signings in recent days, bolstering their bullpen depth with Jason Adam and Tyler Olson. They’ve also explored adding outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury on what would surely be a minor-league pact, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Ellsbury, of course, is a former teammate of Cubs’ manager David Ross, and he shined for the Red Sox while Theo Epstein was in Boston’s front office. As Heyman notes, though, Ellsbury hasn’t played in two years due to injury. His addition would be no more than a flyer, and Heyman characterizes a deal as “a long shot” in a follow-up tweet.

Where the Cubs go from here remains an open question. As has been apparent for a while now, they don’t figure to make any big acquisitions. In possession of a handful of valuable potential trade assets, though, the Cubs’ roster could still look plenty different by the time spring training breaks.

Cubs Will Not Explore Anthony Rizzo Extension This Offseason

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TODAY: Cubs GM Jed Hoyer discussed the situation with David Kaplan on Sports Talk Live (NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki has a partial transcript) today, saying that the two sides held “some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like and I think that, candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length and so he [Pollack] decided to come out and say that.”  Hoyer also noted these negotiations were in the very early stages, and that “there’s nothing that’s been done that’s going to stop future conversations.”

YESTERDAY: The Cubs have decided against pursuing an extension with first baseman Anthony Rizzo this offseason, agent Marc Pollack tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Whether future contract talks will take place is an open question.

Rizzo is entering his second-to-last season of team control under his original extension. That deal has worked out swimmingly for the Chicago organization, which is paying Rizzo $14.5MM this season with another option remaining at the same price (with a $2MM buyout as the alternative).

It seems that Rizzo instructed his rep to broach the possibility of another contract that would keep him locked in at first base for many more years to come. That interest was rebuffed.

“Anthony has let his desire to be a Cub for life known to the organization,” says Pollack. “Although we do not know what the future holds, a deal to make that happen will not be addressed now.”

The 30-year-old Rizzo evidently isn’t seen as a desirable target despite another exceptional campaign at the plate. He slashed a robust .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 2019 and has steadily produced big numbers since a breakout 2014 effort.

The Chicago organization is in an interesting position after carrying a big payroll for several seasons and wrapping up a costlier-than-expected Wrigley Field renovation project. While many would argue that further outlay is warranted, the club has again given signals that it will keep a tight hold on the purse this winter.

That said, the Cubs have expressed interest in pursuing some long-term deals. Rogers says that Kyle Schwarber also hasn’t yet been approached. Kris Bryant is all but certainly a non-starter. Whether Willson Contreras could be pursued isn’t known, but the team has discussed him in trade scenarios. It seems infielder Javier Baez is the likeliest candidate to be locked up at some point in the offseason.

Latest On Cubs’ Offseason Plans

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The Cubs, just a couple months from the end of a bitterly disappointing campaign, may be on their way to an offseason shakeup. The club has been “aggressive,” “manic,” “motivated” and “obvious” in its effort to trade someone, executives have told Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.

The possibility of a trade involving first baseman Anthony Rizzo has looked out of the question to this point, but even the franchise favorite might not be off-limits, according to Passan, who names third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras as other possible chips for Chicago.

Rizzo’s on the heels of yet another excellent offensive season, in which he slashed .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 613 plate appearances. The 30-year-old is controllable for the next two seasons by way of affordable club options, and has already said he hopes to sign a new contract with the Cubs. So far, though, there hasn’t been any scuttlebutt regarding a new deal between the two sides.

Pound for pound, Bryant’s likely the best player of the three, but there’s wariness toward him from other clubs in regards to his team control, per Passan. As of now, Bryant’s still under wraps for two more years via arbitration, but the former NL MVP will become a free agent next winter if he wins a grievance against the Cubs for allegedly manipulating his service time as a rookie in 2015. He’s currently slated to earn a projected $18.5MM via the arb process next season, and that looks like a reasonable price relative to what the soon-to-be 28-year-old Bryant brings to the table. Still, if teams aren’t sure whether they’ll get one or two years of Bryant, it’s understandable that they may not want to make a massive offer for him.

Meantime, there’s no debate as to how much time Contreras has left before free agency. He’s got another three arb-eligible years, including a 2020 season in which he’s slated to earn at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. Between his cost and his years-long track record of terrific production, Contreras is hands down one of the most valuable catchers in baseball. With that in mind, the Cubs aren’t under pressure to trade Contreras for anything less than a sweetheart offer. However, if Chicago does move Contreras, it does seem to have a capable replacement on hand in Victor Caratini.

Whether the Cubs part with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras or another of their big-time contributors (Javier Baez?), it does look as if this is setting up as an offseason of seismic changes for the club. Epstein was frustrated a year ago after the Cubs failed to advance past the wild-card round, so he’s surely even more upset now following a season in which they didn’t even make the playoffs.

Cubs To Add Colin Rea To 40-Man, Outright Allen Webster

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The Cubs have added righty Colin Rea to their 40-man roster, as first reported by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). That move will allow the organization to retain his rights, rather than losing him to minor-league free agency.

Righty Allen Webster was outrighted, the club added in its announcement. As was already a given, the team picked up its $16.5MM option over first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

Rea inked a minor-league deal with the Cubs and spent the entire 2019 season at Triple-A. In 148 innings there, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. The Cubs will be able to control Rea for the league-minimum salary in 2020; while he has enough overall MLB service time for Super Two status, he didn’t spend any time on the active roster last year and is therefore ineligible.

Cubs Exercise Club Option On Anthony Rizzo

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In a move that will shock no one, the Cubs have exercised Anthony Rizzo’s team option for the 2020 season, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports. Valued at $16.5MM, it was a no-brainer for the Cubs to keep their franchise cornerstone at a relatively team-friendly price.

When Rizzo inked his seven-year contract extension in 2013, the 2020 and 2021 options were valued at $14.5MM, though Jordan Bastian of MLB.com explains that a pair of top-five MVP finishes in 2015 and 2016 caused that number to escalate to the $16.5MM mark that Rogers cited.

Since joining the Cubs in 2012, Rizzo has grown into the face of the Cubs of the 2010s, embodying the franchise’s recent run of success and 2016 World Series title. He’s been a paragon of consistency and durability; his 146 games played in 2019 marked his fewest appearances in a season since 2014.

Over the last six seasons, Rizzo has made three All-Star teams and earned two Gold Gloves (he’s a finalist again this year) while posting a cumulative OPS of .901. His on-base skills have made him a stalwart in the heart of the Cubs’ lineup—since 2014, his .388 OBP ranks sixth in baseball among players with at least 2000 plate appearances.

And he’s not going anywhere. Barring a catastrophic fall from grace, Rizzo, one of the finest first baseman in the game, should once again be well worth the $16.5MM option for 2021, his age-31 season. That puts him on track to realistically hit the open market ahead of the 2022 season, when he would be 32.

 

Quick Hits: Twins, Cubs, Rizzo, Strike Zone

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Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu were named as three potential offseason targets for the Twins in MLBTR’s recent “Offseason Outlook” series, and that trio was also speculatively connected to the team in a piece from LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (link). Specifically, Neal takes a look at Minnesota’s extremely fluid rotation picture, which in 2019 featured four hurlers–Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, and Martin Perez–who project to enter free agency (assuming the club declines their option on Perez, as expected). The departures of those pitchers could create something of a vacuum in Minnesota, but payroll flexibility and a talented farm should position them well to address any openings, suggests Neal.

By the writer’s calculations, the club could have upwards of $50MM in payroll room this offseason, while youngsters like Brusdar Graterol and Randy Dobnak could step into the rotation for portions of time. That financial leeway could certainly put them in position for pitchers like Bumgarner or the rest of the post-Cole free agent pitching class, to say nothing of possible trade acquisitions.

More notes from around the baseball world…

  • After making a pair of option decisions on Saturday, the Cubs are expected to exercise first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s option imminently, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (link). 2019 saw Rizzo log his sixth consecutive season with a wRC+ north of 126 (his cumulative figure over that span is a whopping 141 wRC+), making him one of the easier club option decisions of the offseason. Rizzo carries a $14.5MM club option for 2020, with a soon-to-be-irrelevant $2MM buyout attached. Next offseason, Chicago holds an identical 2021 option over Rizzo, lining the slugger up for his first realistic shot at free agency in advance of the 2022 season. Rizzo will be 32 on Opening Day of that campaign.
  • MLB experimented with an electronic strike zone in the Arizona Fall League this season, and it proved rather unpopular with pitchers and hitters alike, writes Josh Norris of Baseball America. While players effused praise for the system’s proficiency on the corners, calls at the top and bottom of the zone were less well-received. Additionally, the delay between the system’s tracking the pitch and relaying of that decision to the home-plate umpire caused some awkward exchanges. Of course, growing pains are to be expected, and the electronic zone is at least consistent, Norris adds, so MLB figures to continue to test its viability in lower-stakes games before considering a rollout at the big league level.

Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell Return For Cubs

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In extremely relieving news for the playoff-contending Cubs, star first baseman Anthony Rizzo is already returning from an injury that looked as if it would prematurely end his regular season. Rizzo’s leading off for the Cubs on Thursday in their crucial matchup against the NL Central-leading Cardinals, Chicago announced. The Cubs also activated shortstop Addison Russell from the seven-day concussion injured list, as Jordan Bastian of MLB.com was among those to report.

Rizzo, who hasn’t played since Sept. 15, is back from an ankle sprain that initially limited him to a walking boot. The fact that he’s back this soon is an enormous boon for the Cubs, who will fall a half-game behind the Brewers for the wild card if Milwaukee hangs on to the late-game lead it boasts over the Padres as of this writing.

Overtaking the Brew Crew (or the Cardinals, who lead the Cubs by three games) obviously would have been all the more difficult without the accomplished Rizzo, who has posted yet another impressive campaign in 2019. The 30-year-old has slashed .289/.404/.516 with 26 home runs in 592 plate appearances. The Cubs used catchers Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini at first base during Rizzo’s absence, but they’re now back to full strength at the position as the regular season nears a conclusion.

Russell hasn’t played since Sept. 8, and injuries to him and standout shortstop Javier Baez led the Cubs to promote high-end prospect Nico Hoerner from the minors. The 22-year-old Hoerner has more than held his own since his debut, and he – not Russell – will man short on Thursday as a result. Russell, 25, was amid yet another subpar season at the plate before his IL placement, and between that and his off-field issues, his Cubs tenure may be winding down.

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