Tony La Russa Won’t Run D-Backs’ Baseball Ops; Future With Org Uncertain
The Diamondbacks continued a massive organizational overhaul today, firing GM Dave Stewart and manager Chip Hale after previously parting ways with VP DeJon Watson. Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa remains with the team at this point, but as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports, he’ll no longer run the team’s baseball operations department.
A new decisionmaker — whether a president of baseball operations, general manager, or both — will take over the reins in molding the team’s roster. At this point, it’s not known when or how the organization will go about filling the void, but president and CEO Derrick Hall says that the new hire will be expected to put greater emphasis on analytics.
Statistical analysis was one of several areas that observers have cited in criticizing the most recent iteration of the D-Backs’ oft-changing front office mix. La Russa was brought on as CBO in hopes that he’d oversee a successful organizational decisionmaking structure, but things haven’t turned out as hoped (as detailed in the post on the firing of Stewart and Hale). In the statistical arena, La Russa has been openly skeptical of the role of analytics, and raised many eyebrows with his hiring of long-time acquaintance — and first-time baseball front office man– Ed Lewis as director of baseball analytics and research.
Arizona’s top brass — Hall, who just inked an eight-year extension, and managing general partner Ken Kendrick — claimed a share of the responsibility for the failings. But they suggested that it was necessary “to turn the page and hit reset and see if we can’t get going in the right direction,” as Hall put it, by starting fresh with a new GM and manager. Per Kendrick, the organization “did not see the trend line at present moving in the right direction.”
Whether La Russa will be a part of the reshaped front office is an open question that was apparently not fully resolved in a lengthy meeting this morning (as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag notes on Twitter). Talks will continue as to what, if any, role may make sense for the Hall of Fame manager, whose foray into the D-Backs’ front office was his first in that capacity.
Diamondbacks Fire Dave Stewart, Chip Hale
The Diamondbacks have announced that they’ve fired GM Dave Stewart and manager Chip Hale. There was no immediate word on whether the Snakes intended to retain chief baseball officer Tony La Russa. “We are still discussing what the appropriate role for Tony La Russa will be going forward,” Kendrick said in a statement.
The decision on Stewart comes as little surprise, as it had previously been reported that owner Ken Kendrick was slated to meet with La Russa today to discuss the statuses of both Stewart and La Russa, both of which seemed to be in jeopardy. Hale’s departure, meanwhile, will allow Stewart’s successor to be involved in choosing a replacement.
The Diamondbacks hired Stewart in September 2014, so his tenure with the team was very short for a GM. During that time, however, the team’s front office made a number of questionable moves, chief among them the trade that sent 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson, along with outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitcher Aaron Blair, to Atlanta for starter Shelby Miller and minor leaguer Gabe Speier. Miller has struggled terribly thus far in Arizona, posting a 6.15 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 101 Major League innings in 2016. Swanson, meanwhile, made it all the way to the big leagues in just his second pro season and played well, batting .302/.361/.442 down the stretch for the Braves.
Perhaps just as important as the actual result of the deal was the view of player valuation it represented. Swanson alone would been a very steep price to pay for Miller, since Swanson was a premium prospect who had done nothing to sully his status as a former top overall pick. Stewart’s approach was also widely questioned earlier in his tenure after a less consequential deal in which he traded Bronson Arroyo and another former first-round pick, Touki Toussaint, to Atlanta for Phil Gosselin in a deal designed to clear about $10MM in Arroyo’s salary from the Diamondbacks’ books.
The Diamondbacks hoped to position themselves as contenders for 2016, not only acquiring Miller but also signing Zack Greinke to a massive $206.5MM deal. Greinke was serviceable but underwhelming for Arizona, posting a 4.37 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in his first season there. The Diamondbacks also suffered a number of other setbacks (beginning with a costly injury to star outfielder A.J. Pollock) and they won just 69 games, miles below expectation. (Stewart himself had gone so far as to say preseason projections that the team would win 78 or 79 games were “a joke.”)
Earlier in his tenure, Stewart’s Diamondbacks also signed Yasmany Tomas to a $68.5MM deal that, so far, has led to underwhelming results. The 25-year-old Tomas did bat .272/.313/.508 this season, but struggled so much defensively that his value was limited. For his career in the big leagues, Tomas has -1.2 fWAR.
Not all of Stewart’s moves have been unsuccessful. He acquired shortstop Jean Segura in a swap that has worked out well so far, and his trade for Robbie Ray has also mostly been a success. On balance, though, his decisions have arguably left the organization in worse shape than when he took office. While others share significant responsibility for some of those moves — the Greinke signing, in particular — there are many questions with the organization’s direction.
The process, even more than the decisions themselves, has come under fire since La Russa took command and hired Stewart. Arizona took a notably different approach from the get-go, but increasingly it seemed that the unique operating philosophy was not only potentially problematic in its own right, but also came with other concerns. ESPN.com’s Keith Law detailed a long list of missteps, some of which reflected an apparent failure to grasp rules and contemporary valuation principles. That includes the mismanagement of draft and international funds, such as the bonus pool-busting signing of Yoan Lopez — which cost Arizona a chance to acquire other talent to add a prospect who outside observers aren’t terribly fond of.
Now that change is afoot, a new dugout chief will also be sought — presumably, after the baseball ops department is sorted out. Hale, after all, was the hand-chosen skipper of La Russa and Stewart, though they may not have ended up being supporters. Reports suggested that Arizona’s ownership group intervened to prevent La Russa and Stewart from sending the now-former skipper out of town earlier this summer.
That proved only to be a temporary hold, though, and Hale will wrap up his first stint in charge of a dugout after a rough 2016 campaign. His original contract only promised two years — both of which are now in the books with a 148-176 overall record — but also included an option year. The organization exercised that provision at the outset of spring camp this year, so Hale will be entitled the guaranteed money.
It isn’t immediately clear what led to Hale’s dismissal beyond the fact that it affords a clean slate. But whatever the particular internal considerations were in this case, it’s not often that a manager survives the kind of season that the D-Backs just wrapped up — in which sky-high expectations (whether or not they were reasonable) went entirely unmet.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
D’Backs Expected To Soon Decide On La Russa, Stewart
Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick is expected to meet with chief baseball officer Tony La Russa on Monday, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports. A decision about the future of La Russa and GM Dave Stewart could potentially be made at the meeting itself, though if not, a final call should be coming relatively soon. Team president Derrick Hall confirmed to Heyman that a Kendrick/La Russa meeting was probably happening Monday, though he didn’t note if he or Stewart would also attend.
For Stewart’s part, the general manager told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) on Sunday morning that he hadn’t been told by club management about when to expect a decision on his future. In a text to Piecoro, Hall said that there would be a sitdown meeting with La Russa and Stewart before any final decision was made, which could represent Monday’s get-together.
The club parted ways with senior VP De Jon Watson a couple of weeks ago, and as Piecoro writes, “many around the game” feel the D’Backs will make changes simply due to the fact that this evaluation of their top baseball execs has gone on for over a month. Stewart’s contract included a 2017 option that was supposed to be exercised by the end of August, though D’Backs upper management held off until the end of the season.
In a radio interview on Sunday, Hall acknowledged that something had to give. “We can’t drag this on….We’ve got to improve this ballclub, and we have to have a plan going into the offseason,” Hall said. “So we’ll make a decision quickly. It’s awkward for these guys to sit around and wait. It’s not good for anyone.”
Despite the high-profile offseason additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, the Diamondbacks finished the season with a 69-93 record, the seventh-worst mark in baseball. Subpar years from both pitchers, especially Miller, certainly played a part, as did a lack of help from the rotation as a whole, a very shaky bullpen and A.J. Pollock spending almost all of the season on the DL. Combined with pre-existing criticisms about how La Russa and Stewart have handled the team’s prospects and international signings, there is indeed a case for the D’Backs to make a change. On the flip side, as Stewart notes to Piecoro, the management team has only been in place for two years, so they could deserve more time to see things through.
West Notes: Scully, Hudson, Rockies, Bridich, Angels, M’s
Vin Scully signed off for the final time today, ending his incredible career with one final Dodgers vs. Giants matchup. All of us at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in tipping our caps to Mr. Scully, the greatest to ever call a baseball game. We wish him all the best in a very well-deserved retirement. Here’s some news from around both the NL and AL West…
- The Diamondbacks will talk to free agent reliever Daniel Hudson this winter about a possible return, GM Dave Stewart told reporters, including Jack Magruder of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). Stewart discussed the possibility of extending Hudson last June, though also came very close to dealing the right-hander at the trade deadline. Hudson finished the year with a 5.31 ERA over 59 1/3 bullpen innings, though his solid peripherals (3.89 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) indicate Hudson’s ERA was inflated by his .333 BABIP and very low 61.7% strand rate.
- The Rockies were within reach of a wild card spot at the trade deadline but stood pat, ultimately faltering over the last two months of the season and finishing at 75-87. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding revisits the decision from GM Jeff Bridich to not make any moves, since while there were some good reasons (such as Trevor Story‘s season-ending injury) for Bridich to resist buying for a playoff run, it could indicate an over-reliance on Colorado’s internal talent.
- There don’t appear to be any changes forthcoming to the Angels coaching staff, manager Mike Scioscia told reporters (including MLB.com’s Austin Laymance).
- The Mariners will consider all of their free agents and club option players, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters, though MLB.com’s Greg Johns believes “only a couple” will return to Seattle in 2017. Outfielder Seth Smith is likely to have his $7MM club option exercised, while the M’s could pass on Chris Iannetta‘s $4.25MM club option since it’s a fairly high price for a backup catcher. Of the free agents, Adam Lind will likely be let go while outfielders Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez could be better fits to be re-signed.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Fernandez, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Ventura
Here’s the latest from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, via a video:
- Some in the media have suggested MLB create an award named after departed Marlins ace Jose Fernandez to honor the player who best exhibits passion for the game, but Rosenthal says the establishment of such an award appears unlikely. MLB feels it already has awards that don’t command enough attention. The league could pay tribute to Fernandez at next year’s All Star Game at Marlins Park, however.
- The Phillies have plenty of financial flexibility next season, but (as has been reported elsewhere) they aren’t likely to sign players to long-term deals this winter. The reason, Rosenthal says, is that don’t want to block any of their better prospects. For a rebuilding team, acquiring veterans in the wrong sorts of situations can have opportunity costs, as Rosenthal points out. He notes, for example, that the Phillies (whose GM, Matt Klentak, previously worked in the Angels organization) could have pursued former Angel Howie Kendrick last offseason. But doing so would have prevented the team from giving playing time to Cesar Hernandez, a younger player who has had a solid season for the Phillies in 2016.
- The Diamondbacks are likely to look for new executives to head their front office this winter, but they could have trouble finding candidates with significant experience. Assuming the team does fire Dave Stewart, they will have dismissed three GMs in six years, also including Josh Byrnes and Kevin Towers. Team president and CEO Derrick Hall has been with the Diamondbacks throughout those firings and recently received a new eight-year contract.
- There have been reports that the White Sox plan to retain manager Robin Ventura, but offering Ventura a new deal might simply be a way for the White Sox to spare him the indignity of firing him. Rosenthal says he is still hearing that Ventura is frustrated with the job.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Top 5 Bright Spots Of 2016
Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.
[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]
Here are the biggest bright spots for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
1. Jean Segura, 2B
The offseason trade that sent Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Braves for Shelby Miller was heavily criticized at the time and looks even worse now. It’s a deal that has cast a dark cloud over Dave Stewart’s tenure as the Diamondbacks’ general manager. Unfortunately, it will also overshadow any good moves that he has made, especially the acquisition of Segura—Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill and Isan Diaz were traded to the Brewers in the deal—less than two months later.
While Anderson has had a solid season in the Brewers’ rotation and the 20-year-old Diaz put up huge numbers in Low-A ball, Segura bounced back from back-to-back poor seasons with one that is worthy of at least a handful of MVP votes. An impressive .320 batting average with 201 hits, 40 doubles, 20 homers and 32 stolen bases has the 26-year-old, who is under contract for two more seasons, heading into 2017 as one of the top middle infielders in baseball.
2. Yasmany Tomas, RF
As recently as late July, it was easy to lump Tomas’ six-year, $68.5MM deal in with other recent moves that hadn’t quite panned out. Tomas had a subpar rookie season in 2015 and, after a strong start to the 2016 season, was in the midst of a two-month long slump (.641 OPS, 5 BB, 52 K from May 26th thru July 23rd) when something finally clicked.
Since July 24th, the 25-year-old has been one of the elite sluggers in the game with a .934 OPS, 17 homers and 12 doubles in 225 plate appearances. It’s great timing, too. With an abundance of hitting talent on the D’backs, not enough at-bats to go around and Tomas’ trade value on the rise, American League teams with a need at DH—Tomas is a bad defensive outfielder—should have plenty of interest.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/27/16
Here are a few of the latest minor moves from around the game, courtesy of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy:
- The Orioles have brought back righty Franderlyn Romero, amongs other minor league re-signings. Romero, 23, hasn’t exactly prospered since joining the Baltimore organization in an early-season international signing slot swap. The 23-year-old moved up to the High-A level for the first time with his new team, but gave up 96 hits and posted a 6.16 ERA in his 76 frames there, with 6.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
- The Diamondbacks will take a chance on 25-year-old Mexican southpaw Armando Aguilar on a minor league deal. Per Eddy, Aguilar is a lefty specialist who was quite stingy against same-handed hitters, posting 9.2 K/9 and a 0.99 WHIP in fifty appearances this year for the Mexican League’s Leones de Yucatan.
Rubby De La Rosa To Undergo Stem Cell Treatment In Bid To Avoid Tommy John
Diamondbacks righty Rubby De La Rosa will receive a stem cell injection tomorrow, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter. The hope is that the treatment will allow him to stave off what would be a second Tommy John procedure.
De La Rosa’s rehab has been something of a rollercoaster: he was able to return briefly, then seemed destined to be shut down, and then seemed like he might be headed back to the major league mound by the end of the season. Now, the situation seems a fair bit more dire than had previously been suggested.
Stem cell and other alternatives to surgery have increasingly been utilized by pitchers hoping to reinforce, rather than replace, their ulnar collateral ligaments. The risk of a TJ procedure failing to produce the desired results is heightened significantly in the case of a second trip under the knife, so the stakes are high in De La Rosa’s case.
Given the timing, a TJ procedure in the near-term would clearly keep De La Rosa out for all of 2017. Second-time UCL replacement recipients tend to take longer to make it all the way back, though he’d at least be reasonably likely to make it back for ’18.
De La Rosa is due a raise — though it won’t be a large one — on his $2.35MM arbitration salary. He’s set for free agency before the start of the 2019 campaign, so the next two campaigns are the final ones of team control for Arizona.
All said, then, there’s a lot riding on De La Rosa’s ability to return. Over his 50 2/3 innings this year, he worked to a useful 4.26 ERA and also showed quite a bit of promise with a rising 9.6 K/9. That makes De La Rosa a critical part of the D-Backs’ rotation picture.
Zack Greinke’s Season Likely Over
SATURDAY: Manager Chip Hale says he does not believe Greinke will pitch again this season, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets.
FRIDAY 10:26pm: The MRI cleared Greinke of structural damage, as Piecoro tweets, though he’ll likely miss his next scheduled start. That’s obviously good news for Arizona, though it would certainly be preferable if Greinke is able to return for at least one more outing before shutting things down for the offseason.
7:12pm: The Diamondbacks will send righty Zack Greinke in for an MRI on his right shoulder, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. He isn’t with the team at present and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to make his final two starts of the year.
Greinke did not show any indications of a problem during his last outing — he was effective, though it was his third-straight with at least four walks — but reported shoulder inflammation thereafter. He did report improvement as of today, per manager Chip Hale, but the team is obviously concerned enough to order up imaging.
Needless to say, this isn’t the way Arizona hoped that Greinke’s already-rough season would wrap up. The soon-to-be 33-year-old sports an uncharacteristic 4.37 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over his 158 2/3 innings on the year. He missed time previously with an oblique strain.
While most of Greinke’s peripherals fell within range of his career norms, he was particularly susceptible to the long ball this year, allowing 1.3 dingers per nine. His average fastball largely held steady, dropping about half a mile an hour from his prior three campaigns, but both his four-seam and two-seam offerings were markedly less effective than in the recent past (by measure of Pitch F/X pitch values).
Greinke still profiles as a highly useful starter — he’d surely secure the largest contract in this winter’s weak free agent class were he again eligible — but the remainder of his massive contract looks to be under water at this point in time. Greinke is owed $157.5MM over the next five years, a monumental sum for a hurler his age, which has led some to suggest that the D-Backs ought to seek a trade partner. While the club’s current front office has stated that it isn’t inclined to take that path, organizational change could shift the calculus. Any uncertainty in Greinke’s shoulder, though, would largely scuttle any such ideas — at least until he can demonstrate that he is healthy.
Three Needs: Arizona Diamondbacks
MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season. Until then, the Diamondbacks are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, Twins, and Rays.
Arizona’s struggles this year are well documented, and need not be canvassed yet again here. Not much went right, leaving a host of areas to address, but these three are most pressing:
1. Sort out the front office.
Turnover in the baseball operations department is nothing new for the D-Backs, but this winter could again see change up top. Tony La Russa was brought in to provide overarching guidance in the sui generis position of chief baseball officer, and he oversaw the hiring of Dave Stewart as general manager and De Jon Watson as senior VP of baseball ops. With Watson already having been shown the door, the team is still holding out on deciding the fates of La Russa and Stewart, neither of whom is under contract past this season.
The longer Arizona waits, the less time a new hire will have to prepare for an important offseason to come. Club CEO Derrick Hall has suggested that a decision will come “relatively quickly,” and that certainly seems to be a wise approach — though an earlier call would arguably have been preferable. After all, roster decisions on current players and potential targets will begin in earnest about one month from now.
Whether the team should change horses right now is up for debate, though certainly there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that’s in order. Regardless, two things seem clear: first, that some measure of certainty in personnel and approach is needed as soon as possible; and second, that some changes in the decisionmaking process ought to be made that allow the organization to better understand and navigate the ever-changing landscape of baseball transactions and player analysis. While the traditional approach has resulted in the identification of some nice assets — chiefly, Robbie Ray, Jean Segura & Welington Castillo — the D-Backs seem out of step in many instances in their market valuations.
2. Make the best out of the Zack Greinke contract.
That seeming market disconnect was as apparent in the handling of Zack Greinke as it was in the acquisition of Shelby Miller — and that’s before accounting for the struggles of both pitchers (particularly the latter) in 2016. Adding rotation talent and betting on a fairly talented core made plenty of sense, but the way that Arizona went about doing so was questionable at best.
The Greinke decision represented an unbelievable risk on a pitcher of his age for an organization that has carried about $100MM in overall payroll, about one third of which is gobbled up by Greinke’s annual obligation. His middling season wasn’t exactly the worst-case scenario — a debilitating injury — but in concert with the fall-off elsewhere, it changes the calculus for the organization moving forward.
It would be silly for the Snakes to dump Greinke for the highest offer while his value is down and he’s still on the relatively youthful side of his contract. Unlike Miller, the veteran hurler was mostly himself — with some expected regression, added home runs, and perhaps a bit of poor fortune and park effects combining for a dud of a season. It’s reasonable to think that he could still boost his value and hold significant appeal at the 2017 trade deadline, if not sooner.
Still, the organization’s apparent approach on Greinke — so far as has been reported — seems a bit concerning. A report in late July suggested that Arizona was not only demanding “a great return of players” in trade talks, but wouldn’t consider eating any of the salary. And the most recent word is that the La Russa/Stewart front office isn’t interested in listening on Greinke over the winter.
To reiterate, I’m not advocating here for any specific course of action. And there could certainly be some public posturing at play. But the fact is, Greinke the player isn’t worth the contract ($157.5MM, some of it deferred, through 2021) — which was arrived at in a highly competitive bidding situation after the righty had wrapped up a career-best season. Even accepting that he remains a top-quality starter, it’s not reasonable to value him as a player asset the way that the reports have suggested.
The bottom line: whether or not the team ends up trading Greinke, it needs to approach the matter with a realistic assessment in order to make appropriate decisions. After hopefully getting him righted, I’d argue, the team needs to begin thinking about how it can get out from under what could end up being a disastrous financial commitment.
3. Work around the edges.
There’s just under $60MM on the D-Backs’ books for 2017, but that will balloon with arbitration raises for players like Miller, Castillo, Segura, Patrick Corbin, Rubby De La Rosa, and Chris Owings. Assuming that ownership doesn’t authorize a big move up over the approximately $100MM current roster spend, there probably won’t be much room to add major pieces.
Really, though, the team isn’t desperately in need of one or two big pieces — as it thought it was last winter. Just finding solid players in a few areas would go quite a long way. Adding even 1.5 to 2 WAR types of assets is harder than it sounds, but those kinds of incremental gains ought to be the focus.
Thus far in 2016 for the Diamondbacks, only four positions — first base, second base, third base, and catcher — have featured average or better production. Just two members of the rotation cracked 1.5 fWAR, and the team already has or will soon part with a few of its better relievers. In many ways, it has turned out to be a top-heavy roster.
The good news is that the team can hope for healthier and/or more productive campaigns from players such as A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Owings, De La Rosa, and Paul Goldschmidt — as well as Greinke and Miller — while banking on continued strides from a few young hurlers, including Archie Bradley, who actually turned in a reasonably promising campaign despite an unsightly 5.02 ERA. But injuries and performance variations are inevitable, and Arizona must do a better job of having options on hand both to share time when appropriate and to fill in when necessary.
Despite taking 200 or more plate appearances in 2016, Owings, Yasmany Tomas (who ought to be in the A.L.), Nick Ahmed, Michael Bourn, Rickie Weeks, and Phil Gosselin were all approximately replacement-level performers. In the rotation, hurlers such as Miller, Patrick Corban, Zack Godley, and Braden Shipley were marginal in nine or more starts. (I won’t endeavor to name all of the club’s middling relief performances.)
Again, Arizona will surely hope that some of those names will turn up on the stat sheet as positives in the season to come. But a few well-placed trades and signings, as well as well-conceived decisions on less-established players, could transform the supporting cast into one capable of supporting a winner (assuming, at least, that the core can restore its former luster).
While the Snakes may not have much money to brandish, they do have the ability to offer roster space and opportunities for playing time, which are important assets in their own right when properly deployed. That’s especially true in the outfield, which was easily the worst unit in the majors this year with Pollock gone, Peralta hurt, and Ender Inciarte playing in Atlanta. Such a piecemeal strategy may not be terribly likely to result in a full-blown turnaround, but that’s probably the only way that the organization can hope to squeeze through its self-appointed window of contention.