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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

As they open SunTrust Park for the 2017 season, the Braves have begun to transition toward competitiveness — though they carefully avoided any lengthy veteran entanglements this winter.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

[Braves Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The pace of moves coming from the Atlanta front office remains dizzying. This time around, while there were still many forward-looking transactions, the club increasingly turned its attention to investing in the 2017 roster.

That’s not to say that the Braves went wild in a push to win now; after all, the club won only 68 games in 2016, despite a strong finish. Instead, the vast bulk of the club’s investments in veteran players are of the one-year variety. The club clearly hopes to boost its on-field product with a new park opening while steering clear of the kinds of moves that could hamper more dedicated future efforts at contending.

GM John Coppolella promised that the rotation would be the focus, and he followed through on that early. Atlanta added two of the game’s oldest players, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, on mid-priced, one-year deals. Talented lefty Jaime Garcia joined the fold, too, in a deal that cost the organization two reasonably promising pitching prospects in John Gant and Chris Ellis.

Bartolo Colon

All said, the rotation promises to be worlds better than the 2016 unit, though it’ll likely be more of a reliably solid unit than any kind of top-tier staff. With the trade rumors in the rear-view — at least until the deadline — top hurler Julio Teheran will look to repeat a strong season. High-octane righty Mike Foltynewicz seems the obvious choice for the fifth spot, and he’ll also seek to build off of the promise he showed in 2016.

The Braves would surely be glad to see that quintet succeed for a full season, though it’s possible to imagine a summer trade if the organization isn’t sticking in the postseason picture. Garcia, in particular, could hold appeal if he performs. Meanwhile, Atlanta will see whether Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims can regain their footing, while veterans such as John Danks, Andrew Albers, and perhaps old favorite Kris Medlen will take up spots in the depth department. Most importantly, perhaps, the club will closely watch the progress of touted arms as Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and the newly acquired Luiz Gohara as they plot a course for the future.

Despite all the changes in the rotation, the bullpen largely returns in its 2016 form. Jim Johnson took an extension just before reaching free agency, and he’s expected to handle closing duties. That job could be contested at some point during the year, though, particularly if Arodys Vizcaino can find his form or Mauricio Cabrera proves as overwhelming as his stuff. Josh Collmenter and Ian Krol are back after agreeing to arb deals, while Jose Ramirez also figures to have a spot locked down. Righty Chaz Roe, who showed well (11.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.60 ERA) in 20 frames after a mid-season claim, is in the mix too, though he’s struggled badly in Spring Training thus far. Rounding out the pen may come down to a camp battle involving veteran minor-league signees Eric O’Flaherty, Sam Freeman, Rex Brothers, Blaine Boyer, and perhaps also 40-man members Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris.

The Braves’ most notable moves on the position-player side came at second base. The team thought it had its man in Sean Rodriguez, who got a two-year deal after a career year in Pittsburgh, but a terrifying car crash left him with an injured shoulder and a lengthy rehab timeline. He could miss the majority of the 2017 campaign. That led the Braves to pivot back to Brandon Phillips, who was acquired for a light price and will hold down the fort at second while the team waits for top prospect Ozzie Albies to return from injury, finish his development, and join exciting young shortstop Dansby Swanson in the bigs.

While there was chatter that the Braves would pursue an upgrade behind the dish, the club ultimately passed on free agents such as Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, and the recovering Wilson Ramos. Instead, the club added Kurt Suzuki on a modest pact to join Tyler Flowers in some kind of time share. Anthony Recker remains on hand as a third option, so things are set for the time being. In the long term, though, the catching position remains one of uncertainty.

Questions Remaining

Most of the organization’s notable holes were plugged in some way, as might have been expected. But there’s plenty of variability on this roster, and there are a few areas which remain unsettled as the season draws near.

There was speculation before the offseason that Atlanta might look to upgrade at third base, where the team is set to feature Adonis Garcia. The 31-year-old has shown flashes of ability in his brief time in the majors, but he has yet to show the kind of consistency that warrants regular playing time. Garcia improved with the bat and the glove after a rough first half in 2016, though he still ended the year with a below-average .273/.311/.406 batting line and negative grades on the bases and in the field.

To be fair, parting with significant resources to add a player such as Todd Frazier (via trade) or Justin Turner (through free agency) probably wasn’t sensible from a long-term perspective. And it’s certainly possible that Atlanta foresaw a scenario where Rodriguez would have shifted to the hot corner upon the ascension of Albies, or where Garcia would give way to prospect Rio Ruiz. But the Braves could have placed a smaller bet on someone like Luis Valbuena or Trevor Plouffe to bolster the third base situation, so there were alternatives. Whether the team made the right call to give Garcia another full season of playing time remains to be seen.

The outfield, too, still seems in need of a supplemental player. Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly deserving of the vast bulk of the time in center, which he’ll surely receive (more on him below). But Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis aren’t exactly mid-prime corner options. While they’ll see the lion’s share of the time, their own value would likely be maximized if they receive regular rest.

Among the organization’s current options, veteran Emilio Bonifacio may have the inside track on such a role. He’s more of a utilityman than a true outfielder, but would generally meet the team’s reported desire for a right-handed hitter who can play center. (Bonifacio does have a good bit of MLB experience there; the switch-hitter has also traditionally fared better against southpaw pitching.) Other internal reserve possibilities, such as Micah Johnson and Adam Walker, don’t quite match the job description, and Johnson is now out of the picture in the short term anyhow after suffering a fractured wrist. There’s been some chatter that the Braves are interested in veteran Angel Pagan, though it seems the team hasn’t offered enough to draw him in.

There are broader bench questions, too. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is a rather obvious choice to earn one spot; he’ll likely spend some time spelling the team’s right-handed-hitting second and third basemen. Otherwise, light-hitting utilityman Chase d’Arnaud seems to have the inside track. If it’s d’Arnaud, Peterson, and Bonifacio to go with the second catcher, and the Braves use an eight-man pen, that doesn’t leave much in the way of offensive ability on the bench.

On the pitching side, there is certainly a fair bit of depth, and the bullpen is in solid shape. Despite all the additions to the rotation, though, that unit may not be as great an asset as might be hoped. Dickey and Colon are both over 40; while that hasn’t stopped them from being sturdy and effective to this point, there’s always the possibility of a significant fall-off given their age. Garcia carries long-term health questions and wasn’t that effective in 2016. And while there’s talent beyond that group, only Teheran has clearly established himself as a high-quality MLB starter.

It obviously wouldn’t have made much sense for the Braves to prioritize 2017 too heavily in making winter moves. But the club did dabble in the market for such quality, controllable arms as Jose Quintana and Chris Archer. Any such acquisition would’ve been a major trade that could well have required paying too high a price (quite possibly including Swanson), but clearly that kind of arm would’ve represented a more significant upgrade. The Braves will be content to roll the dice with what they have, and to keep knocking on those doors, but as presently constituted the rotation has plenty of potential to disappoint.

Deal Of Note

The rebuilding process isn’t just about securing young talent. It’s also about sorting through it and planning ahead for when it’s all available at the MLB level.

When the Braves struck the stunning deal last winter that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, much of the focus landed on Swanson — and rightfully so. But the deal also delivered Blair and the underappreciated Ender Inciarte, who many thought might be flipped.

Ender Inciarte

Inciarte, however, wasn’t dealt. And though he struggled early, he turned things on in the second half and ended up with another 3+ WAR campaign. While the Braves had another chance to weigh trade offers, the club chose instead to commit to the Super Two-eligible player this winter in the form of a five-year contract extension.

The total outlay to Inciarte — just over $30MM — is low enough that it won’t hurt too badly if the investment falls flat. That’s an unlikely outcome, as his defensive and baserunning abilities give him a fairly sturdy floor as a useful fourth outfielder even in a downside scenario.

While the Braves have been downright aggressive in hunting for high-upside players in recent years, and have also committed some near-term funds to veterans, the Inciarte deal is another kind of transaction entirely. Much like the division-rival Phillies’ nearly identical deal with Odubel Herrera, this extension represents the placement of a piece of the puzzle for seasons far beyond the present. Particularly given the most likely alternative — shopping Inciarte for yet more pre-MLB talent — the contract is as clear an indication as any that the organization is ramping up for contention.

Overview

Few will pick the Braves to make the postseason in 2017, or even to remain in the hunt as summer turns to fall. But there’s an expectation for improvement — and, perhaps, also the beginnings of some pressure. Fan expectations are rising with the new park and new player investments. Some of the organization’s hyped upper-level players are entering the phase where they will need to prove their worth in the majors or step aside. And the plans of the front office will increasingly be put to the test as the organization seeks to convert the talent it has accumulated into wins.

What’s your take on the Braves’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)


Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Heyman’s Latest: Quintana, Pagan, Cozart, Padres, Bautista, Giants

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In his latest notes column, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that while teams such as the Astros, Pirates, Rangers and Yankees were all linked to Jose Quintana in trade rumors this offseason, the best offer the White Sox received came from an unnamed club that is currently perceived as more of a rebuilding team. That could mean any number of teams — the Braves, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Brewers and Padres are all in the midst of retooling their organizations — and further context is seemingly unknown at this time. A trade of Quintana, at this point, seems far likelier to occur this summer than during the final days of Spring Training, though Heyman’s note is a reminder that Quintana would appeal to virtually any club in baseball. With four years and $36.85MM remaining on his contract, Quintana’s affordable level of excellence can help clubs looking to win now or those looking to contend more in 2018-19.

A few more highlights…

  • The Braves have made “multiple” attempts to sign free-agent outfielder Angel Pagan, but the veteran has been holding out for a big league deal worth around $5MM. Heyman notes that Pagan has received some guaranteed offers, but they’ve come with very low base salaries. Atlanta has also been tied to another reunion with infielder Kelly Johnson, but Heyman notes that Johnson, too, is seeking a Major League contract.
  • Zack Cozart is still available in trade talks, but the Reds haven’t gotten much in the way of appealing offers due to the fact that few clubs are looking for a shortstop right now. The Padres have talked to Cincinnati about Cozart, but Heyman notes that they’re not keen on giving up top-tier talent for a player with only one year of club control remaining before free agency. Heyman notes that San Diego is still on the lookout for a shortstop upgrade.
  • The Rangers would want a Major League ready starting pitcher in any trade involving Jurickson Profar, Heyman notes. The Padres like Profar but wouldn’t be willing to surrender right-hander Luis Perdomo in order to obtain him, he adds. That may raise an eyebrow for some fans, but I’d point out that Perdomo has five years of control remaining (to Profar’s three) and posted a 4.47 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 61.4 percent ground-ball rate across his final 110 2/3 innings in 2016 after a dismal start in the bullpen. In that time, he posted a 3.84 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA. Profar hit .239/.321/.338 in 307 plate appearances last season.
  • Right-hander Jered Weaver tells Heyman that he considered retirement this offseason following a career-worst year in 2016. However, Weaver began to feel stronger after a month of rest, ultimately landing with the Padres on a one-year, $3MM deal. Weaver says that he’s “10 steps above last year” in terms of how he feels physically at this point.
  • The Indians made an offer to Jose Bautista that was for roughly the same $18.5MM guarantee he received with the Blue Jays, Heyman reports, and they weren’t entirely closed off to a multi-year deal. However, Bautista’s preference was to head back to Toronto.
  • The Pirates sought right-hander Derek Law (among other pieces) in trade talks centering around Mark Melancon with the Giants at last year’s trade deadline, per Heyman. It seems that the Pirates were focused on adding an MLB-ready replacement arm for the bullpen in Melancon talks, which they received in the form of left-hander Felipe Rivero. San Francisco, of course, signed Melancon to a four-year deal this winter.

Micah Johnson Diagnosed With Fractured Left Wrist

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Braves infielder/outfielder Micah Johnson has been diagnosed with a left wrist fracture, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on Twitter. He will require surgery for the injury; his timeline to return is not known at this time.

Johnson, 26, hurt his wrist in an attempt at a catch recently. Though it was initially believed that he had escaped significant injury, ensuing tests identified the fracture.

Though Johnson has spent most of his professional time at second base, he has increasingly been looked upon as an outfielder. Atlanta acquired him from the Dodgers in mid-January in exchange for cash or a player to be named later.

A left-handed hitter, Johnson had seemed unlikely to crack the MLB roster to open the season. Jace Peterson remains ahead of him on the depth chart in the infield, and the club is said to be interested in using its last open bench spot on a right-handed-hitting, center-field-capable player.

Still, Johnson figures to be one of the Braves’ top depth options, so long as he can return to health.  Once seen as a potential future regular with the White Sox, the speedy Johnson struggled in his MLB debut in 2015 and hit just .261/.321/.356 with 26 steals at Triple-A last year. But he did produce a strong .315/.375/.466 batting line with 28 swipes over 351 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors in 2015.

Bonifacio Making Push For Roster Spot

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  • Veteran utilityman Emilio Bonifacio is making a “strong push” to break camp with the Braves at the end of Spring Training, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Bonifacio had a pair of poor seasons in 2015-16 and acknowledged to O’Brien that his conditioning in recent seasons has fallen off. Bonifacio reported to camp in better shape than he has in the past couple of years and has performed well while showing the ability to play all second base, third base and all three outfield positions. The Braves don’t currently have a fourth outfield option that has much in the way of center-field experience, so the versatile Bonifacio could fill a need in that regard.

NL Notes: Reds, Rockies, Wisler, Schafer

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Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams gave an interesting interview to David Laurila of Fangraphs that’s worth a read. The top Cincy baseball decisionmaker noted that it’s harder for clubs of that market size to pay solid veterans on short-term deals during a rebuilding campaign, which is one of several factors that tends to make the process more painful. But the organization is plainly committed to doing it and doing it right. Williams detailed many different initiatives underway after an exhaustive review of “where we thought dollars would have a better return on investment than at the major league payroll level.” You’ll want to give the post a full read.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • With Ian Desmond set to miss a chunk of time early in the season, the Rockies are sorting through their options for filling in, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. Mark Reynolds is the obvious choice as a primary replacement, of course, but the team will need to line up some bodies behind him. With manager Bud Black saying the club hopes to “take advantage” of the versatility of some of their own players, he lined up each of Jordan Patterson, Stephen Cardullo, and Cristhian Adames at first in drills. Whether the organization might look at external names isn’t known, but Black did say that he has not heard any discussion surrounding former Rockies first bagger Justin Morneau.
  • Righty Matt Wisler is still trying to establish himself for the Braves, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The 24-year-old has been hit hard this spring, as he was in the majors last year, and there doesn’t seem to be much chance that he’ll crack the MLB rotation unless there’s an injury or big performance downturn during the season. Still, manager Brian Snitker says he’s a believer — at least in the quality of Wisler’s offerings. “[I]t’s just location– fastball location,” Black said of Wisler’s struggles. “He’s just got to keep working on location. The stuff is there. The kid’s stuff is too good not to be successful.”
  • Jordan Schafer’s efforts to make the Cardinals roster as a lefty reliever have run into some difficulties, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch Reports. The 30-year-old is dealing with forearm soreness, with the root cause yet to be determined. He hadn’t been particularly effective in his five outings anyway, and struggled upon reaching Triple-A briefly last year with the Dodgers organization. But Schafer was actually quite impressive at Double-A in 2016, working to a 3.15 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over forty frames.

Braves Claim Kevin Chapman From Astros

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The Braves announced on Monday that they’ve claimed left-handed reliever Kevin Chapman off waivers from the Astros. Houston reportedly placed the 29-year-old Chapman on waivers over the weekend. Atlanta had an open spot on its 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary.

Chapman is out of minor league options, so the Braves will need to either carry him on their roster to start the season or once again expose him to waivers if they hope to send him to the minor leagues. The former fourth-round pick has a career 4.09 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 big league innings.

While Chapman saw quite a bit of time in the Majors in 2013-14, he’s logged just 13 1/3 combined innings with the Astros over the past two seasons as they’ve relied heavily on Tony Sipp as the primary (and in many cases only) left-handed option in manager A.J. Hinch’s bullpen.

Chapman struggled in Triple-A this past season (4.87 ERA in 61 innings) but does have a strong track record at that level, where he’s worked to a collective 3.67 ERA and racked up 262 strikeouts in 208 2/3 innings (11.3 K/9). He’s also struggled with his control throughout his minor league tenure, however, as evidenced by a career 4.7 BB/9 rate in the minors (4.9 in Triple-A). Chapman doesn’t dominate opposing lefties and permits them to reach too often via walk, but he’s also prevented them from hitting for any sort of power against him. In total, same-handed opponents have batted .263/.354/.325 against Chapman in the Majors. He’ll give the Braves an additional lefty option for the bullpen and compete with the likes of Ian Krol, Paco Rodriguez and non-roster invitee Eric O’Flaherty for a spot at the end of camp.

Braves An Unlikely Match For Angel Pagan

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Braves Notes: O'Flaherty, Bench

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  • Left-hander Eric O’Flaherty has rediscovered some of the sink on his fastball in Spring Training and, with righties Chaz Roe and Blaine Boyer struggling, has emerged as a legitimate option to break camp with the Braves, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. “He’s throwing some good breaking balls and his fastball has a little more life than it did,” manager Brian Snitker tells Bowman. “We just need to stay with him. I think he feels good, so that’s just a good thing to just keep him out there. I think he’s feeling healthy for the first time in a while.”
  • Looking to the bench competition that is ongoing in Atlanta, Bowman tweets that the only two locks for bench spots at this moment are backup catcher Kurt Suzuki and utilityman Jace Peterson. The Braves are said to be eyeing a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder that can handle center and have several other candidates in camp vying for bench roles (as can be seen on their depth chart at Roster Resource).

Latest On Angel Pagan

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4:09pm: Pagan had an agreement with the Orioles, but a failed physical blew things up, Heyman reports. It isn’t clear just when that occurred or what the issue was.

The deal with Baltimore was a major league deal, Heyman suggests. Pagan’s agent, Greg Genske, also says that other teams have offered MLB roster spots, per the report. Indeed, Atlanta is potentially interested in such an arrangement, though it’s not clear at what price tag.

This new report seems to change the story on Pagan. It now appears that opportunity and/or money are the main sticking points. The veteran has “been seeking close to $5MM” in contract talks, according to Heyman.

3:47pm: The Pirates and the Braves are among the “many” teams that have made offers to outfielder Angel Pagan, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. (Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle first reported that the Braves had made an offer.) However, the 35-year-old Pagan has reportedly been holding out for a Major League offer, and it doesn’t seem that any team has made that type of proposal to this point, as Heyman adds that the outfielder has yet to find a suitable opportunity.

Pagan isn’t exactly missing out on Spring Training entirely, as he’s playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, so he’ll be somewhat up to speed if he does ink a deal with a club at some point this month. Earlier this week, Pagan told reporters that he feels that his 2016 play has earned him a spot somewhere. It’s hard to argue that, based on Pagan’s 2016 season. While he may no longer be much of an option in center field, he did bat .277/.331/.418 with 12 home runs and 15 steals last season, and his defense in left field as passable in the eyes of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved.

Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh were among the speculative landing spots I listed for Pagan last week, as either one makes sense on paper. The Braves don’t have a true fourth outfielder, as their current backup options in center field include Jace Peterson, Chase d’Arnaud and perhaps non-roster invitee Lane Adams. The Pirates, meanwhile, are currently set to utilize Adam Frazier as an infielder/outfielder off the bench but lack a pure fourth outfield option themselves.

Braves Seeking Right-Handed-Hitting Fourth Outfielder

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  • The Braves are in the market for a right-handed-hitting outfielder that can handle center field. Currently, Atlanta lacks a clear-cut fourth outfielder and is set to deploy two left-handed-hitting starters in Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis.

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