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Braves Rumors

Hudson Has Offer From Braves; Other Teams Interested

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 4:57pm CDT

4:57pm: Eight teams have contacted Hudson, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Giants, Red Sox, A's and Rangers have all reached out in addition to the Braves, Indians and Royals.

12:30pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets that close to 10 teams have already expressed interest in Hudson.

12:25pm: Not surprisingly, Tim Hudson won't be receiving a qualifying offer, but the Braves have already extended him a one-year offer to return for the 2014 season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman doesn't have the financial details of the offer beyond its one-year term, but he notes that the Indians and Royals have both already expressed interest in luring Hudson away from the Braves.

According to Bowman, Indians manager Terry Francona has already had a lengthy phone call with Hudson, and Royals manager Ned Yost plans to contact him later in the week. Hudson and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports have yet to make a counter offer to the Braves' proposed one-year pact.

Hudson is set to have a screw removed from his ankle this week — the final step in his recovery from a gruesome fracture suffered in late July when Eric Young stepped on his foot in a close play at first base. Hudson could be throwing off a mound within two weeks of the screw's removal, writes Bowman.

On the Brian McCann front, Bowman lists the Rangers as the early front-runners to sign the longtime Braves backstop as a free agent, though he notes that the Yankees and Red Sox are also expected to be in the mix. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes confirmed earlier today, McCann will receive a qualifying offer. He's a lock to reject that offer and hit the open market, though.

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Braves Decline Reed Johnson’s Option

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 2:43pm CDT

The Braves announced, via press release, that they have declined their $1.6MM club option for outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson will instead receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent.

Johnson, 37 in December, batted .244/.311/.341 in 136 plate appearances for the Braves in 2013. Though he didn't do much at the plate the versatile outfielder provided solid defense at all three outfield positions. He also posted respectable numbers against left-handed pitchers, slashing .291/.328/.345 — a trait he's shown throughout his entire career. Johnson's career .311/.366/.456 batting line against southpaws dwarfs his line against same-handed pitching.

Johnson's ability to play anywhere in the outfield and ability to hit left-handed pitching at a decent clip will likely allow him to latch on as a fourth outfielder/bench bat somewhere this offseason.

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Brian McCann Receives Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 2:40pm CDT

2:40pm: The Braves have officially announced that McCann will receive a qualifying offer.

9:05am: The Braves will extend a qualifying offer to catcher Brian McCann, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned (Twitter link). The move doesn't come as a surprise, as McCann figures to be one of the top free agents available on the market this offseason and has no reason to consider accepting a one-year, $14.1MM offer.

McCann, who turns 30 in February, returned from injury to bat .256/.336/.461 with 20 homers in just 402 plate appearances — his sixth straight season of 20+ homers. Power such as McCann's is rare for a catcher, and his .277/.350/.473 career batting line is a testament to his offensive prowess.

In his free agent profile for McCann, Tim predicted that an American League team would be comfortable going to five years and $80MM for McCann. By wins above replacement, McCann has likely justified that commitment, averaging 3.0 rWAR and 3.8 fWAR over the past six seasons despite a pair of injury-shortened campaigns. A move to the AL, where he could see some time at DH, could allow him to play in more games.

Assuming McCann turns down the qualifying offer, any new team looking to sign him would have to punt a top draft pick. The first 11 picks are protected in this year's draft, meaning those teams would have to forfeit a second-round selection. All other teams would be required to sacrifice a first-round pick. Should he reject the offer and sign with a new club, as many expect, the Braves would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round.

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NL East Notes: Phillies, McDowell, Johnson, Marlins

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2013 at 3:55pm CDT

Don't count the Phillies out in 2014, cautions Dan Szymborski of ESPN in an Insider-only piece. Szymborski points out the similarities between the Phillies and Red Sox at the end of the 2012 season, noting that the Red Sox elected to pursue an intricate rebuild while the Phillies stood pat. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. can restore his team's status as a contender if he's bold this offseason, writes Szymborski, adding that with Roy Halladay off the books, the team has the wherewithal to do just that. Szymborski lists Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann as impact additions Amaro could make and also wonders if the team could pry David Price away from the Rays with a package fronted by Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco. Here's more out of the NL East…

  • Roger McDowell's name has come up frequently in the Phillies' search for a pitching coach, but Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reports that McDowell will remain with the Braves as their pitching coach (Twitter link).
  • As part of their pitch to keep McDowell, the Braves erased his one-year contract and awarded him a two-year deal, according to Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter).
  • While there's yet to be a formal announcement, O'Brien tweeted yesterday that he expects the Braves to exercise their $1.6MM club option on Reed Johnson. Johnson's contract comes with a $150K buyout, essentially making it a $1.45MM decision for Atlanta GM Frank Wren.
  • In his primer for the upcoming offseason, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro writes that the Marlins will look to upgrade at catcher and third base, with an eye on getting more power into the lineup. The team's payroll isn't expected to be drastically different from last year's $38MM now that they failed to land big fish Jose Dariel Abreu, but the team will have some flexibility to pursue bargain free agents. Frisaro expects the Marlins to address catcher via trade, as they're no longer sure that Rob Brantly is their future at the position. At third base, he thinks that a one-year stopgap is likely, with 2013 first-rounder Colin Moran expected to be ready for the position in 2015. Some candidates for such a deal (and this is my own speculation) would include Wilson Betemit, Casey McGehee (who had a big season in Japan), Mark Reynolds and Kevin Youkilis.
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Minor Moves: Ryan Buchter, Wirfin Obispo, Felix Pie, Simon Castro

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2013 at 10:30pm CDT

Here's your list of today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Braves have added two minor league relievers — lefty Ryan Buchter and righty Wirfin Obispo — to the club's 40-man roster, per the International League transactions page. The move was designed to prevent both pitchers from qualifying for minor league free agency. Buchter, 26, fanned 15 batters per nine innings last year in 62 Triple-A innings to go with a less-flattering 7.4 BB/9, and ended up with a 2.76 ERA. The 29-year-old Obispo, meanwhile, put up 9.9 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 in Gwinnett over 63 2/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball. Both could get a look for an MLB bullpen role in Spring Training.
  • The Pirates have outrighted Felix Pie off their 40-man roster, and the outfielder has elected free agency, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune (Twitter link). The 28-year-old former top prospect hit just .138/.194/.172 in 31 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2013 and slashed .251/.321/.390 in 396 plate appearances at Triple-A Indianapolis.
  • The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Simon Castro to Triple-A Charlotte, removing him from the 40-man roster, the team announced on Twitter. Castro twice appeared on Baseball America's list of Top 100 prospects as a Padres farmhand and found himself headed to Chicago as part of the Padres' trade for Carlos Quentin. Though he was sharp in his big league debut this season, totaling 6 2/3 innings in the Majors, Castro limped to a 5.83 ERA in 92 2/3 innings at Charlotte.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

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Nicholson-Smith On McCann, Tanaka, Hudson, Johan

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2013 at 11:44am CDT

With free agency underway, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reached out to 40 Major League Baseball executives and agents to gauge the markets for both pitchers and hitters. Here are just some of the highlights from each well-crafted analysis constructed by my former MLBTR colleague…

  • Brian McCann hasn't ruled out a return to the Braves, despite the fact that most pundits are projecting him to sign with an American League team on a contract that's far too expensive for Atlanta's liking. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes profiled McCann in September and predicted a five-year, $80MM deal.
  • Many executives and agents that spoke to Nicholson-Smith doubt that Robinson Cano actually has a chance at reaching the $300MM mark that he and agent Brodie Van Wagenen suggested last month.
  • Cuban catcher Yenier Bello is expected to work out for big league teams on Nov. 5 in Tijuana, Mexico. The powerful 28-year-old hasn't yet been cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), though MLB cleared him a month ago.
  • While we've heard several scouts predict that Masahiro Tanaka won't live up to the ace standards set by Yu Darvish, Nicholson-Smith found that there are several teams that do view Tanaka as a potential ace/top-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Tim Hudson's agent, Paul Cohen of TWC Sports, told Nicholson-Smith that his client wants to play for two or three more seasons and is interested in signing a multiyear contract this winter. I profiled Hudson last month, projecting a one-year, $9MM contract, but noted that some teams may be interested at two years.
  • Johan Santana wants to return to the Majors and recently began throwing. The two-time AL Cy Young winner didn't pitch in 2013, but he should be able to generate interest as a high-upside signing that comes with little risk.
  • Javier Lopez is seeking a multiyear deal this winter after another strong season with the Giants, and Nicholson-Smith gets the sense that there are many non-closing relievers eyeing multiyear deals. He spoke to some executives who feel that left-handed relief is one of the strengths of this year's market.
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East Notes: Phillies, Braves, Orioles

By charliewilmoth | October 31, 2013 at 7:16pm CDT

The Phillies could be major players in the outfield free agent market, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. That means they could pursue Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson. (Of those, Cruz might make the most sense, since the Phillies have expressed interest in right-handed hitting to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.) They're also interested in the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, but it does not appear the Marlins will trade him. Other than Domonic Brown, Philadelphia got little out of their outfield positions last year. Heyman notes that the Phillies also would like relief help. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Braves could increase their payroll from about $90MM to about $100MM in 2014, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. Even if Brian McCann departs via free agency, however, much of that money could be consumed by arbitration raises. 
  • Of their free agents, the Orioles are most interested in keeping Scott Feldman, Brian Roberts and Nate McLouth, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com reports. Their other free agents include Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Hammel, Michael Morse and Chris Snyder. They will likely decline their options on Tsuyoshi Wada ($5MM) and Alexi Casilla ($3MM), and they've already outrighted Dan Johnson ($800K). When they decline Wada's option, it will bring his two-year, $8.1MM deal to an end before he even pitched an inning in the big leagues.
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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | October 28, 2013 at 7:48pm CDT

After returning to the top of the NL East for the first time since their remarkable string of division titles ended in 2006, can the Braves defend their crown in 2014?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • B.J. Upton, OF: $59.8MM through 2017
  • Justin Upton, OF: $28.75MM through 2015
  • Dan Uggla, 2B: $26MM through 2015
  • Gerald Laird, C: $1.5MM through 2014

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

  • Craig Kimbrel, RP (3.066): $7.25MM projected salary
  • Kris Medlen, SP (4.137): $5.9MM 
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B (3.033): $4.9MM
  • Jason Heyward, OF (4.000): $4.5MM
  • Chris Johnson, 3B (3.144): $4.2MM
  • Mike Minor, SP (2.138): $3.5MM
  • Jonny Venters, RP (4.000): $2.3MM
  • Jordan Walden, RP (3.043): $1.5MM
  • Jordan Schafer, OF (3.121): $1MM
  • Elliot Johnson, IF/OF (3.028): $900k
  • Brandon Beachy, SP (3.014): $900k
  • Cristhian Martinez, RP (3.158): $800k 
  • Paul Janish, IF (4.145): $725k
  • Ramiro Pena, IF (3.089): $600k 

Contract Options

  • Reed Johnson, OF: $1.6MM club option ($150k buyout)

Free Agents

  • Luis Ayala, Scott Downs, Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, Kameron Loe, Paul Maholm, Brian McCann, Eric O'Flaherty

Boosting the Braves' hopes to repeat in 2014 — and, perhaps, enjoy a lengthier post-season experience — is quite an impressive slate of arbitration-eligible players. Of course, none of the club's outstanding, homegrown youngsters has yet to be locked up beyond the standard six years of control. Getting a conversation going with some of those talents could well stand high among Atlanta GM Frank Wren's winter priorities, though the Braves have failed to hand a new deal to any of their own players with less than five years of service time in Wren's six seasons at the helm. (Sifting through the many extension candidates, MLBTR's readers voted in favor of long-term deals for Kimbrel, Freeman, Minor, and Julio Teheran). 

As things stand, tendering contracts to all eligible players is projected to cost north of $35MM for 2014. And only Venters is a non-tender candidate among the players projected to be worth over $1MM. For a team whose opening day payroll has tended to land right around $90MM over the last several seasons, that represents a lot of cash. Though the team is committed to just four players (and one minimal buyout) for next season, that tacks on just over $42MM more. Filling out the rest of the roster with league minimum contracts could push the tab into the $80MM range. Unless the club is able to clear salary through trade or expand its budget, then, there will be relatively little excess available in the coming off-season.

Fortunately for the Braves, while Wren has a less-than-perfect track record on big dollar contracts, his front office has proven adept at extracting value from "free-talent" players. Among them, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro, and David Carpenter combined to add over 2 WAR last year, and figure to challenge for important bench and pen roles in 2014. And ESPN's Keith Law notes (Insider link) that more such players are in the pipeline, explaining that bargain bin pickups Juan Jaime, James Hoyt, and Ian Thomas could all appear soon in the Atlanta pen or (in the case of Thomas) even the rotation.

That group of players (Schafer excepted, of course) could have a major role in filling out the Atlanta bullpen next season. Kimbrel, Walden, and Luis Avilan seem sure bets to hold down their spots, while Varvaro and Carpenter should have every opportunity to do the same. Otherwise, last year's league-best pen (by ERA and FIP) is in flux, though that doesn't mean it lacks options. David Hale or Alex Wood could work in relief if they fail to earn a starting role (or remain stretched out in Triple-A). The club could bring back the excellent-but-injured Venters or O'Flaherty on a cheap deal. Or the above-noted free talent, perhaps joined by a new waiver wire claim or two, could battle with the club's other minor league pitching (such as Shae Simmons) to round out the corps. In any event, a substantial free agent guarantee seems relatively unlikely.

Likewise, as MLBTR's Steve Adams explained in his profile of Hudson, the rotation could be made up solely from in-house options. Minor, Teheran, and Medlen are all locks for a spot, and Beachy probably would be if his health were not at issue. As just noted, Wood and Hale could compete to start, and top prospects J.R. Graham and Sean Gilmartin could be ready to contribute in 2014. Beachy will presumably join the party at some point, depending upon his rehab progress.

On the other hand, with veterans Hudson and Maholm hitting free agency, Wren has indicated that he is interested in adding some experience to the rotation. After all, the club considered making a move for Jake Peavy at the trade deadline and claimed Kyle Lohse off of revocable waivers, meaning that the organization was willing to take on significant future salary for a veteran arm. Looking ahead, a reunion with Hudson remains a distinct possibility, particularly since his ankle injury could limit his market. Maholm seems less likely to be brought back, while Freddy Garcia could return as a long man in the pen or as minor league starting depth. Another veteran such as Bronson Arroyo could also be a possibility, but given the options on hand, it seems unlikely that the Braves will stretch the budget for multiple years of such a low-upside option. While many fans have called for the team to add a pitcher at the top of the rotation — with David Price, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, and Chris Sale among the hypothetical possibiilities — it seems unlikely that the Braves could pull off such a deal without giving up arms that are already in the bigs. And that would probably be an inefficient tradeoff given the team's budget constraints. 

The Braves' everyday lineup has some question marks in terms of outlook, but relatively few of composition. Feel free to use your pen in filling out an Opening Day lineup card at first (Freeman), short (Simmons), and the corner outfield (J. Upton, Heyward). Likewise, third (Johnson), catcher (Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt, Laird), and center (B. Upton, Schafer) are highly likely to be filled from within. Though none of these options is a sure thing, they have probably each either done enough in 2013 or (in the case of the elder Upton) received too great a commitment to warrant an upgrade at this point.

Of course, the preceding paragraph assumes that incumbent backstop McCann will depart via free agency. There remains some slight possibility that he finds his way back to the only organization he has ever known. But if McCann commands the $80MM commitment that MLBTR's TIm Dierkes predicts, there is virtually no chance that Atlanta can come close enough to convince him to return.

That leaves second base, which is the most glaring weakness on the Atlanta roster and perhaps the single position most likely to be acted upon aggressively. Uggla was expected to to hold things down well enough on the back end of his large contract, but he declined precipitously last year, especially after undergoing Lasik surgery mid-season. If any other team is willing to eat a substantial portion of the $26MM still owed to Uggla, Wren would have to consider pulling the trigger. 

But it isn't as if the organization has an obvious replacement on hand. It would be tough for a contender to hand the full-time job to Tyler Pastornicky, Johnson, or Pena, though they might combine in a platoon. Increasingly, it seems, 24-year-old Tommy La Stella could have a legitimate shot at taking the reigns after a strong showing in Double-A and big start to his AFL campaign. But MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo lists him just 14th among Braves prospects, calling him a "grinder" rather than a budding star. Likewise, in a recent evaluation, ESPN's Keith Law said (paywall) that La Stella flashed only one plus tool (hit) that left him with a relatively low ceiling. 

Looking outside of the organization, the free agent pickings are slim after Robinson Cano and Omar Infante. While Infante might be of interest, he will likely be too rich for Atlanta. Otherwise, the Braves would likely be looking at some well-traveled players, with Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis (assuming the Dodgers decline his option) among the most attractive options. (There is some history behind a couple of these options: Infante was dealt from Atlanta to pick up Uggla, while Johnson was once non-tendered by the club in 2009.)

While the rumor of Atlanta's interest in acquiring Brandon Phillips in exchange for Uggla and a prospect could make sense from the home team's perspective, it is far from clear that the feeling would be shared in Cincinnati. Howie Kendrick of the Angels might be a target, as he is only owed $18.85MM over the next two seasons, and the Braves could stand to part with some of the young pitching desired in Anaheim. Otherwise, a series of lesser keystone possibilities might be had via trade.

On the bench, with more attractive middle infield options likely available (see above), Janish's time may be up. Likewise, a poor 2012 and cheap buyout make Reed Johnson seem a decent bet to leave town, especially since the club has several other players capable of manning center. A more substantial catching role would take Gattis out of the reserve outfield mix, leaving room for an addition. Of course, Atlanta has some other internal bench hopefuls like Joey Terdoslavich, and will no doubt be loath to spend much for part-time contributors. 

Some teams are fun to watch in the offseason because they spend big; others, because their constraints make every move a complicated, seemingly momentous endeavor. At least assuming the club maintains its payroll at approximately the same level, the Braves seem clearly to fall in the latter category this year. Strong seasons from several prominent younger players have increased payroll pressure via arbitration, while disappointments from some of the team's few major commitments have reduced the possibility of shedding salary. And the clock is ticking on locking up some of the Braves' top-end young talent before free agency beckons. While Atlanta will undoubtedly return a very good team regardless, it will be fascinating to see how Wren maneuvers to set the club up for the future and fill its few areas of immediate need.

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Atlanta Braves Offseason Outlook

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Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

By Tim Dierkes | October 28, 2013 at 5:50pm CDT

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Braves are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

  • Craig Kimbrel (3.066): $7.25MM
  • Kris Medlen (4.137): $5.9MM
  • Freddie Freeman (3.033): $4.9MM
  • Jason Heyward (4.000): $4.5MM
  • Chris Johnson (3.144): $4.2MM
  • Mike Minor (2.138, Super Two): $3.5MM
  • Jonny Venters (4.000): $1.625MM
  • Jordan Walden (3.043): $1.5MM
  • Jordan Schafer (3.121): $1MM
  • Elliot Johnson (3.028): $900K
  • Brandon Beachy (3.014): $900K
  • Cristhian Martinez (3.158): $750K
  • Paul Janish (4.115): $725K
  • Ramiro Pena (3.089): $600K

Kimbrel's arbitration case is so incredible, we created a rule around it to limit his salary.  Since his salary could escalate like no other reliever's has before, the Braves could try to get out in front of the situation and sign him to a multiyear deal.  It's difficult to imagine buying out his three arbitration years for less than $25MM, and free agent years could cost $13MM apiece.  There is no template here, and the safe bet for the Braves is to go year-to-year.

Medlen followed up his stellar 2012 with a strong 3.11 ERA in 197 regular season innings.  A Tommy John survivor, Medlen is quietly closing in on free agency after the 2015 season.  If the Braves want to lock him up, Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal could be a starting point.  The arbitration cases of Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, and Doug Fister will be relevant to Medlen this winter, as all of them are in the four-plus service class.

The Braves may also want to look into locking up Minor, who achieves Super Two status after posting a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings.  Gio Gonzalez, also a Super Two at the time, signed a five-year, $42MM deal prior to the 2012 season, which is still a record for a two-plus pitcher.

Beachy doesn't project to earn much his first time through arbitration, as he has only 267 2/3 career innings and only 111 over 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.  He's still not all the way back, with arthroscopic elbow surgery being done in September.  He'll be in the Braves' rotation mix next year if healthy.

Freeman put together an MVP-caliber year at first base, hitting .319 with 23 home runs and 109 RBI.  On an extension, he'd easily be able to top Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM deal, which will be four years old come January.  RBIs pay in arbitration and free agency, and Freeman has 203 over the last two years.  He may just go year-to-year and watch his salary rise rapidly from our already-solid projected starting point of $4.9MM.  Though the Braves have traditional extension candidates in Kimbrel, Medlen, Minor, and Freeman, they have rarely done these types of deals.  Brian McCann's 2007 contract is the most recent example.

A year ago, Heyward was one of the game's best young players not signed to a multiyear extension.  Though he had another strong season, he missed time due to an appendectomy, hamstring strain, and fractured jaw in 2013.  He'll play at age 24 next year and seems primed for a big season.  Johnson, meanwhile, contended for the NL batting title and finished with a .321 average.  Unlike this year, he won't have to worry about having a platoon partner at third base to begin the 2014 season.

Turning to the Braves' bench, Schafer battled injuries but was a useful fourth outfielder.  Infielder Ramiro Pena was off to a nice start until a shoulder injury ended his season in June.  He hopes to be ready for spring training after having surgery.  Elliot Johnson joined the Royals as the player to be named later in the James Shields–Wil Myers deal, after being designated for assignment.  He was the team's regular second baseman at times, but was designated for assignment again in August.  The Braves claimed him off waivers, and he was their starter in the playoffs at second base over Dan Uggla.  Though Johnson wasn't particularly good in 2013, I think the Braves will keep him given the uncertainty with Pena.  Janish has a low salary projection, but seems likely to be non-tendered after giving way to Johnson this year.

Finishing up the Braves' sizeable group, Walden, Venters, and Martinez are also up for arbitration.  Walden is secure after posting a 3.45 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 in 47 innings.  Venters had his second career Tommy John surgery in May, and faces a lower success rate than those who had the procedure once.  We project his salary to stay at the $1.625MM he earned in 2013, though as we saw with the Royals and Felipe Paulino, a slight pay cut is possible.  Venters stands a decent chance of being non-tendered.  Also on thin ice is Cristhian Martinez, who had shoulder surgery in July.

Assuming the Braves tender contracts to Kimbrel, Medlen, Freeman, Heyward, Chris Johnson, Minor, Walden, Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Beachy, and Pena, they're looking at an estimated $35.15MM for 11 arbitration eligible players.       

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2014 Arbitration Eligibles Atlanta Braves

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Arbitration Breakdown: Craig Kimbrel

By Matt Swartz | October 28, 2013 at 10:55am CDT

Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

In just over three years on the baseball diamond as a member of the Atlanta Braves, Craig Kimbrel has accomplished a wide variety of feats. He has led the National League in saves for three years in a row, with 139 saves in his young career. Kimbrel struck out a fantastic 381 hitters, which amounts to 43 percent of all hitters faced (more than twice the league average). He has also kept runs off the board like no one else, allowing a microscopic 1.39 ERA in his 227 1/3 innings pitched. Now, we can add one more trophy to his case here at MLB Trade Rumors: he is the namesake of the Kimbrel Rule, as well as the first player whose arbitration salary projection has ever been affected by it. Why do we need this Kimbrel Rule? Quite simply, Kimbrel broke my arbitration model.

The result that the model spit out was so outlandishly high that no panel would ever have awarded it to him. The model works by considering how panels and settling parties (teams and agents) have previously interpreted different statistics and factors into their decision, and provides a salary estimate based on these. This is often useful, for example, because we can see how many saves a closer would need to have to offset a higher ERA than a previous comparable. Similarly, for a hitter, we can see how much an MVP adds to salary and how many home runs a hitter would need to belt to make up the difference. However, there is no category in which Kimbrel failed to dominate the preceding closers who have reached their first year of arbitration.

Consider the following lists of maximum first-year salaries for closers in arbitration over the previous seven years:

Jonathan Papelbon ($6.25MM):

  • Platform year—41 SV, 2.34 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 77 SO
  • Previous years—72 SV, 1.63 ERA, 160 2/3 IP, 193 SO

Bobby Jenks ($5.60MM):

  • Platform year—30 SV, 2.63 ERA, 61 2/3 IP, 38 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 3.26 ERA, 174 IP, 186 SO

John Axford ($5.00MM):

  • Platform year—35 SV, 4.68 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—71 SV, 2.26 ERA, 139 1/3 IP, 171 SO

Brian Wilson ($4.46MM):

  • Platform year: 38 SV, 2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 IP, 83 SO
  • Previous years: 48 SV, 4.34 ERA, 116 IP, 108 SO

Now consider Kimbrel’s primary arbitration-relevant statistics:

Craig Kimbrel (unknown):

  • Platform year—50 SV, 1.21 ERA, 67 IP, 98 SO
  • Previous years—89 SV, 1.46 ERA, 160.1 IP, 283 SO

Now consider the records for each of these statistics by all closers (defined by having 15 platform-year saves or 50 pre-platform saves) put together before Kimbrel, which we will call Mutant Super-Closer:

Mutant Super-Closer:

  • Platform year—41 SV, 1.71 ERA, 78 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 1.63 ERA, 252 IP, 269 SO

Other than innings, Kimbrel actually beat the Mutant Super-Closer too. He beat every previous closer in every previous category.

Looking at the foursome of potential comparables above, it is clear that Papelbon is the only closer who even came close to achieving what Kimbrel ultimately has achieved, and he fell far short of Kimbrel’s accomplishments in every category.

Kimbrel had 50 saves in 2013, his platform season. The most any other pitcher has had going into his first year of arbitration in recent memory (which includes the last seven years, the data I have available) was Jonathan Papelbon, who had 41. No one had more career saves in recent memory than Bobby Jenks who had 117 going into arbitration for the first time, but Kimbrel has 139.

Kimbrel has a 1.39 career ERA, which is well ahead of any other closer reaching arbitration. The closest was Papelbon who had a 1.84 ERA going into his first year of arbitration in 2009, but his 2.34 platform year ERA fell far short of Kimbrel’s 1.21 mark for 2013.

Kimbrel also has all other closers beat on strikeouts too, tallying 381. The next highest for a closer going into his first year of arbitration was 362 strikeouts by Carlos Marmol leading into 2010, but Marmol’s 23 career saves at this point fall well short of Kimbrel’s 139.

In the end, there just weren’t any comparable pitchers for Kimbrel. There was no category where he fell short of another closer’s mark, and the accolades piled on to escalate his salary projection. This is why we invented “The Kimbrel Rule,” which is defined by limiting the maximum salary projection possible to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). In this case, no one has ever earned more in their first year of arbitration as a closer than Jonathan Papelbon, when he earned $6.25MM in 2009, so Kimbrel is projected for $7.25MM despite the model itself predicting a salary well in excess of this amount.

This number was selected as a rough approximation of what teams, agents, and arbitration panels have historically decided on. In general, the model I use does a good job of approximating the end-result of their decision processes, but when faced with no historical precedent, there is often a settlement that avoids beating the previous record by too much. Therefore, we have made this specific rule a part of the model. It is not the first time that we have let the model “have eyes.” For players who do not play in a given season, we have observed that they so frequently get rewarded with their exact previous salary that this is now an explicit rule in the model. No player gets projected for a decrease in salary anymore because those that would have often received this floor anyway—their previous salary. Now, we have a rule for the ceiling for players.

We are eagerly awaiting the ultimate settlement in the Kimbrel case, because we have spent much of the last few months discussing the peculiar case of Mr. Craig M. Kimbrel. It is our suspicion that he will land much closer to the $7.25MM we have projected for him than the high number the model produced, which I might as well confess was actually $10.2MM. However, Kimbrel is not just the namesake of the rule; he is also the first test of the Kimbrel Rule. While a couple other players will have their salaries dampened by the Kimbrel Rule in 2014, the amount that it changed their salary projection was under $1MM in these cases, nothing that could shine a light on the theory. Going forward, this may be a clue about how to treat exceptional cases for us (and possibly, for the teams and players themselves). Of course, maybe the Braves will hurry up and settle with him before he breaks my computer.

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Arbitration Breakdown Atlanta Braves Craig Kimbrel

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