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Twins Drawing Trade Interest On Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda

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The Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s not clear how open Minnesota is to moving either player, although it stands to reason they’d at least gauge the market and see if another club were willing to bowl them over with an offer.

It’s unsurprising other teams would eye the pair of Minnesota righties, both of whom have established track records as productive MLB starters. Gray would be the more appealing of the duo, as Maeda didn’t pitch in 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent in September ’21. Gray dealt with a few health issues himself, missing time with a pair of strains in his right hamstring and a pectoral strain. Around the trio of injured list stints, the righty pitched well, though.

Acquired from the Reds in Spring Training, Gray made 24 starts during his first season in Minnesota. He posted a 3.08 ERA across 119 2/3 innings, fanning an above-average 24% of opponents against an average 7.4% walk rate. Gray’s 44.5% ground-ball percentage was a personal low, but it was still a bit better than par. At his best, the two-time All-Star generates a rare combination of whiffs and grounders. He hasn’t reached 30 starts in either of the past two seasons, but Gray’s an upper mid-rotation caliber arm when he’s healthy.

At year’s end, Minnesota made the easy call to exercise a $12.5MM option on his services. He’s slated to return to the Twin Cities for what’ll be his age-33 campaign before hitting the open market for the first time.

Maeda is also down to his final year under contract, with his salary to be determined by his health. The righty is headed into the final season of the eight-year deal he initially inked with the Dodgers coming off from Japan. That deal was layered with innings-based incentives, as the Dodgers expressed concerns about Maeda’s medical evaluation at the time.

The 34-year-old is due a $3MM base salary, and he’ll lock in a $150K bonus for being on the Opening Day roster. Maeda can earn an additional $10MM annually in incentives. He’d pick up $1MM each for reaching 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5MM apiece at 25, 30 and 32 starts; he can tack on up to $3.5MM based on his innings totals between 90 and 200 frames in a season, and he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

While there’s a chance for Maeda to earn more than Gray does next season, that’d only be in the event of his staying healthy after a lost season. If his elbow holds up and he regains his pre-surgery form, the 6’1″ hurler would be a nice addition to the middle of a starting staff. Maeda was brilliant in the shortened 2020 season, securing a second-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled to a 4.66 mark in 21 appearances the next year, but his strikeout and walk rates remained strong. Since coming off from the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, Maeda has provided the Twins 173 frames of 3.90 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout percentage.

It’s worth reiterating that while there’s no harm for other teams in reaching out to president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, Minnesota isn’t under any pressure to deal either pitcher. They’re both a year from free agency, but the Twins are generally expected to make another run at competing in 2023. Minnesota has had two straight disappointing seasons, and they’ll now have to overcome the free agent loss of Carlos Correa. Yet the Twins have ample payroll room, with a projected 2023 payroll nearly $30MM south of this past season’s Opening Day mark.

The Twins have been tied to each of the top two remaining free agents, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón. They could fit either player into the long-term budget without subtracting anyone from the existing roster, and landing either would signal a firm commitment to trying to compete in the American League’s weakest division. Still, the Twins have also shown at least some willingness to shuffle up their MLB roster. They’ve reportedly given some consideration to moving defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez if it nets them major league help elsewhere, and they could explore a similar path with right fielder Max Kepler.

As things stand, Gray and Maeda are set to feature in an Opening Day rotation that’ll include Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder are on hand as depth options, as are Cole Sands and Louie Varland. Minnesota could welcome Chris Paddack back in the season’s final two months if his recovery from a second career Tommy John surgery goes according to plan. There’s enough health uncertainty the Twins could choose to stockpile their rotation depth, though the presence of a few interesting younger options at least gives the front office alternatives if they were to ponder making Gray or Maeda available.

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Rotation, Houck

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With Xander Bogaerts headed to San Diego, the Red Sox face questions about their lineup. Boston has added Masataka Yoshida on a five-year deal to play left field, but they’re now dealing with a vacancy in the middle of the diamond.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters this week the Red Sox are seeking someone who can play up the middle on either the infield or outfield (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). As Bloom noted, the team has some positional flexibility in that regard thanks to Trevor Story and Enrique Hernández. Story played second base in deference to Bogaerts this past season, but the longtime Rockies shortstop now looks penciled in to move back to the left side of the diamond. Hernández is a quality defender at both second base and center field, and his ability to cover either spot gives Boston the freedom to look for players at either position and move Hernández around depending on subsequent additions.

In any event, the Red Sox figure to bring in another player with the athleticism to cover up the middle. As things stand, the team would likely open the season with Story at shortstop, Hernández in center and some combination of Christian Arroyo and Jeter Downs at second base. Neither Arroyo nor Downs should have a firm hold on an everyday job for a hopeful contender, but the available free agent options at important defensive positions are dwindling.

The center field market was almost completely barren from the start, with Brandon Nimmo the clear top option. Players like Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger got everyday jobs coming off disappointing seasons, while the Red Sox struck early to keep Hernández out of free agency on a $10MM extension in September. He’s not coming off a great year himself, but the lackluster free agent class no doubt played a role in Boston’s decision to take a shot on a bounceback.

Free agency in the middle infield is a bit more robust. Dansby Swanson is the top player still remaining. The Red Sox are reportedly part of that market, although they’ll face competition from teams like the Cubs, Twins, Dodgers and incumbent Braves. It’d be rather surprising to see the Sox pivot to Swanson — who looks likely to top $150MM on the open market — after watching their own star shortstop (and described “top priority”) depart. There’s a notable drop after Swanson, with Elvis Andrus the next-best remaining shortstop. At second base, Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are the top options available.

All those players hit right-handed, which could make them targets for the Boston front office. Speier writes the Sox are looking for a righty bat, a sensible pursuit considering their lineup skews towards the left side. Story, Hernández and Arroyo are the only three righties who currently look like regulars, and Arroyo could be supplanted by an outside addition. Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo and Yoshida all hit from the left side, as do first base/DH options Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer. Boston has Bobby Dalbec in that mix as a righty alternative, but he’s struggled enough the past couple seasons they’ve reportedly made him available in trade.

The trade market obviously also offers a chance for the Red Sox to address some roster deficiencies. Bloom told Chad Jennings of the Athletic on Monday the club was open to consolidating minor league talent to add immediate MLB help. The front office leader downplayed the possibility of moving talented players at the MLB level (seemingly including Casas) as part of those efforts, but he expressed a willingness to move players who are further away from the majors.

There aren’t many up-the-middle players who look likely to be dealt this winter. The Guardians could part with shortstop Amed Rosario, while the Royals may field offers on center fielder Michael A. Taylor. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano has some center field experience and would add a righty bat to the outfield, but he’s coming off a dismal 2022 season and the A’s may prefer to hold him in hopes of a better year that rebuilds his trade appeal.

The rotation market offers more possibilities, both in free agency and trade. Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto and old friends Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha are among the free agent options still available. Viable rotation trade candidates include Trevor Rogers and Pablo López in Miami, Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales of the Mariners and Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker. Both Speier and Jennings write that Boston would like to add a starter, no surprise for a team that has seen Eovaldi, Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency without bringing in outside help.

Boston does have a few players who can step into the rotation after not assuming much of a role last season. Chris Sale barely pitched in 2022, while James Paxton didn’t throw for the Sox at all. They’ll hopefully go into Spring Training healthy but have plenty of recent injuries and workload concerns. Brayan Bello could get a full season after breaking into the majors this past July. The Red Sox already announced Garrett Whitlock would join Nick Pivetta in the starting five after mostly working in multi-inning relief the last two years.

The Sox haven’t been as committal on Tanner Houck, but he’s also a rotation option after bouncing between starting and relief for a while. As Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic writes, the Sox’s offseason to date has seen them bring in a few bullpen options — Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen and Joely Rodríguez — without doing much to fortify the rotation. That could point towards an increasing likelihood of Houck competing for a rotation spot in Spring Training, although much depends on the team’s activity over the next three months.

Houck came out of the bullpen for 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022, including some time as the team’s closer. With Jansen now set to lock down the ninth inning, skipper Alex Cora can deploy Houck either in higher-leverage relief in the middle innings or as part of the starting staff. The former first-round pick started 13 of his 18 outings in 2021, and he has 20 MLB starts on his résumé. In that time, he’s worked to a 3.22 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate. Houck has a 2.68 ERA and a 25.9% career strikeout percentage when coming out of the bullpen.

Trevor Williams Expected To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation

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The Nationals inked former division rival Trevor Williams to a two-year contract last week, reportedly guaranteeing him $13MM. The right-hander had worked in a swing capacity with the Mets, starting nine of his 30 outings in 2022.

Williams has an extended pre-2022 track record of starting, however, and he’s expected to move back into that role in the nation’s capital. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Williams said the Nats have told him he’ll get an opportunity to start next year (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). The former Pirate acknowledged he’d been hoping to find a rotation spot during his foray into free agency.

The 2022 campaign was a strong one for Williams, who tallied 89 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball. He struck out a roughly average 22.6% of opponents with a strong 6.2% walk rate. The 30-year-old fared better in relief, working to a 2.47 ERA while holding opponents to a .247/.311/.371 mark across 51 frames. He was solid but less effective as a starter, allowing 4.19 earned runs per nine with a .260/.302/.467 slash line allowed. Williams’ control was strong in both roles. He missed more bats and allowed fewer homers while working out of the bullpen, however.

Williams occupied a full-time rotation spot in Pittsburgh for awhile, starting 25+ games each season from 2017-19 and all 11 of his outings during the shortened 2020 campaign. He started 12 of 13 appearances with the Cubs in 2021 before being dealt to the Mets at the deadline. Over that four-plus year stretch, Williams put up a 4.38 ERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk percentage in 105 starts.

Washington certainly has room in the rotation, with virtually no certainty on the staff. Washington starters had a ghastly 5.97 ERA in 2022. That was easily the worst in the majors, three-quarters of a run higher than the 29th-placed Rockies (5.22 ERA). Aníbal Sánchez was remarkably the only Nationals pitcher with multiple starts and an ERA below 5.00. His 4.28 mark was paired with subpar underlying numbers, and he’s now a free agent who’ll be 39 by Opening Day.

Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli all figure to have the inside track on starting jobs if healthy. They’re all young arms with significant upside who the organization hopes can develop into key pieces from their ongoing rebuild. Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg are on hand and would surely have Opening Day rotation jobs based on their career bodies of work, but neither has been productive since 2019.

Corbin has remained healthy and at least taken the ball every fifth day, but Strasburg’s career has been thrown off track by continued issues with thoracic outlet syndrome. Gore has still yet to pitch as a National after missing the entire second half due to elbow inflammation, while Cavalli went down with season-ending shoulder inflammation after making his MLB debut in August. Given the health uncertainty with players like Strasburg, Gore and Cavalli, it’s little surprise to hear Williams is ticketed for rotation work to start the year.

Giants, Carlos Correa Agree To 13-Year Deal

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The Giants have landed the star player they’d been seeking. San Francisco is reportedly in agreement with Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract. The deal doesn’t contain any opt-out provisions but the Boras Corporation client will receive a full no-trade clause.

It’ll be the third team in as many years for Correa, who turned 28 in September. The longtime Astro hit free agency last winter. Generally regarded as the top player in that offseason’s class, he didn’t find the long-term megadeal he’d sought after declining a qualifying offer from Houston.

After the lockout, Correa pivoted to a shorter-term gamble on himself, inking a three-year guarantee with the Twins that paid him the largest per-year salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player in MLB history. That deal allowed Correa to opt out and retest the market this winter, and he was ineligible for another QO thanks to the CBA’s prohibition on a player receiving the offer multiple times in his career.

Correa’s 2022 campaign got off to a slower than expected start. He hit .243/.309/.324 in April, presumably dealing with some lingering effects of his late signing and cold early-season weather that took a toll on his power output. In the first week of May, Correa dealt with a scare when he was struck on the right hand on a check swing. Initial x-rays indicated he may have fractured his right middle finger, but follow-up testing revealed he suffered only a bruise. He still landed on the injured list but returned after a minimal stint. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list a few weeks later, Correa stayed healthy the rest of the way.

After returning from the finger bruise, Correa was one of the sport’s best players. He hit .299/.376/.488 in 487 plate appearances from mid-May onwards. Among 133 qualified hitters over that stretch, he ranked 14th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging. That excellent finish brought his season line up to .291/.366/.467 in 136 games. Correa’s overall offensive productivity was 40 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the levels he’d established late in his time in Houston. Correa stumbled in the abbreviated 2020 campaign but had respective wRC+ tallies 42 and 33 points above average in 2019 and ’21.

Over the past four seasons, the former first overall pick has tallied just under 1800 plate appearances. He’s hit .281/.359/.481 with a strong 10.6% walk rate and a lower than average 20.4% strikeout percentage. Correa has posted a hard contact rate north of 42% in each of the past four seasons, well above the 35-36% league marks. Broadly speaking, there’s nothing to nitpick with his offensive ability. He makes contact, has strong plate discipline and has topped 20 home runs in six of the seven 162-game seasons of his career. Correa has unsurprisingly been better against left-handers than righties, but he’s been excellent against pitchers of either handedness. He owns a .291/.386/.482 career mark against southpaws, while he’s hit .274/.346/.477 against same-handed arms.

Correa had some injury issues earlier in his career, missing time in 2018 with back discomfort and fracturing a rib in 2019. He’s only twice topped 600 plate appearances in a season, but the aforementioned finger contusion is the only non-virus ailment that has sent him to the IL within the past three seasons. With his recent health and the strong finish to his 2022 campaign, his camp made the easy call to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM on his Twins deal.

For the second straight winter, he was the top free agent option in a loaded shortstop class. Even with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson hitting the open market, Correa was the best available shortstop. Aaron Judge was the market’s top free agent overall on the heels of an MVP-winning, 62-homer season, but one can argue Correa was the best long-term bet available.

In addition to his strong offensive track record, the two-time All-Star is typically one of the sport’s most valuable defenders. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as an above-average shortstop in every season of his career. Altogether, DRS has pegged him as 70 runs better than par in more than 7600 innings. Statcast hasn’t been as bullish, but it also generally rates him as a plus gloveman. Statcast has pegged Correa as 17 runs above average since it began tracking defense in 2016, including plus grades each year from 2018-21.

Correa’s defense marks were particularly excellent during his final season in Houston, when he rated as +20 runs by DRS and +9 runs at Statcast. He secured his first career Gold Glove award in the process. This year’s reviews weren’t so impressive. DRS still considered him a net positive at three runs above average, but that was the lowest mark of his career. Statcast pegged him two runs below par, his first below-average showing by that metric since 2017.

Defensive metrics can vary on an annual basis, and it doesn’t seem San Francisco’s concerned with this past season’s mid-tier showing. Correa boasts a plus arm and has generally been very sure-handed. There may be some trepidation about how his 6’4″, 220 pound frame will hold up into his mid-late 30’s, particularly since he’s only an average runner. With his hands and arm strength, however, the Giants can at least project above-average glovework for the next few seasons.

San Francisco has four-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford under contract for another year. They didn’t enter the offseason needing shortstop help necessarily, but their infield around Crawford had its share of question marks. San Francisco re-signed Wilmer Flores to a two-year guarantee to add a productive righty bat to the mix at first, second or third base. Tommy La Stella is under contract for another season but hasn’t played well since landing in San Francisco. J.D. Davis and David Villar are on hand as corner options, while Thairo Estrada can cover the middle infield and adds a solid righty bat.

There are a lot of moving pieces available for skipper Gabe Kapler, but adding Correa figures to solidify the left side of the infield with an everyday pair. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote last month the team planned to move Crawford to the hot corner if they were to sign Correa. Crawford has never played an inning outside of shortstop in the majors, but he figures to handle the less demanding position well.

While shortstop itself may not have been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office, adding impact talent certainly was. The Giants made no secret of their desire to land Judge. When he returned to the Bronx, the club pivoted to Correa — the clear top hitter remaining. He’ll now become the highlight acquisition of the offseason, joining outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitchers Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling as players brought in to try to rebound from an 81-81 campaign.

Doing so requires one of the largest investments in major league history. The $350MM guarantee checks in as the fourth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest free agent deal of all-time, just narrowly below the $360MM deal that Judge inked a week ago. Correa becomes the second free agent to land a 13-year contract, matching the record length secured by Bryce Harper with the Phillies over the 2018-19 offseason. The deal runs through the 2035 campaign, what will be Correa’s age-40 season.

That kind of lengthy megadeal has become en vogue this offseason. Turner and Bogaerts signed 11-year deals with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, taking them each through their own age-40 seasons. Judge inked a nine-year deal that paid him through age 39. MLBTR had predicted Correa for a nine-year, $288MM contract at the start of the offseason. As with Turner and Bogaerts, those deals lasted longer than anticipated, with each correspondingly securing a greater guarantee than expected.

That has involved a bit of a tradeoff with regards to annual salary, however. Correa’s deal comes with an average annual value around $26.92MM, a mark that’s outside the top 25 in MLB history. That’s well lower than the $32MM per-year salary MLBTR had projected, with the Puerto Rico native electing to sacrifice some money on an annual basis to secure a larger total sum. Doing so could very well position him to spend the remainder of his career in the Bay Area.

From a team perspective, spreading the guarantee over a longer term adds more future downside but has the more immediate benefit of reducing the club’s luxury tax hit. A team’s CBT commitments are based on deals’ average annual values, and the $26.92MM mark is more manageable in that regard.

That’s now relevant for the Giants, whose payroll has spiked dramatically. The specific financial breakdown isn’t yet clear, but an evenly distributed salary would push the Giants 2023 payroll around $190MM, as projected by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax figure is about $206MM, $27MM below the base threshold. San Francisco’s spending is well above the $150-155MM range of the past few seasons, but it’s still shy of their $200MM franchise-record Opening Day mark from 2018.

The Giants could keep pushing forward as they jostle for position atop a stacked NL West with the Dodgers and Padres. The bullpen is still a question mark, and San Francisco could look into upgrades at first base and/or center field. The Giants remained involved in the bidding for ace Carlos Rodón as of this afternoon as well, although signing both Correa and the top remaining free agent starting pitcher may push beyond their financial comfort level.

As for Correa’s now-former team, they’ll be left to regroup having missed out on their top target of the winter. Minnesota offered a 10-year deal worth $285MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That came with a higher annual salary than the offer Correa actually accepted, but the Twins were apparently reluctant to commit deep into his 30’s. They’re now facing an uncertain shortstop situation, with Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis looking like the top internal options.

Minnesota has already had some discussions with Swanson this offseason, keeping tabs on him as a fallback possibility to Correa. The organization should have a decent amount of financial flexibility and could now pivot more strongly after Swanson if they’re determined to address shortstop. They’ve also been linked to Rodón at various points and could try to allocate their spending capacity to a top-of-the-rotation arm. The Twins surely aren’t done in any event, although that’ll be little consolation for the front office and fanbase for the moment. Because Correa was ineligible for the qualifying offer, they don’t receive any compensation for his departure.

It’s the latest massive move in an offseason that has gained plenty of steam since the calendar flipped to December. Correa joins an increasingly loaded division and, more generally, a very competitive National League. In the process, he becomes the new face of the Giants — a role the club hopes he’ll effectively hold well into the next decade.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Correa and the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the deal didn’t include any opt-out provisions but contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Interested In Carlos Correa

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The Mets are showing interest in Carlos Correa, report Ken Rosenthal, Dan Hayes and Andy McCullough of the Athletic. It’s not clear precisely how committed they are to making a run at the top remaining free agent, but their presence on at least the periphery of the market makes for a fascinating twist.

This offseason has been dominated by Mets headlines, with the team signing a number of top free agents. New York made nine-figure commitments to retain Edwin Díaz ($102MM over five years) and Brandon Nimmo ($162MM over eight years). The Mets brought in Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.66MM deal — tying the annual salary record they established with last offseason’s three-year pact for Max Scherzer. They agreed to terms with Kodai Senga on a five-year, $75MM pact and have signed smaller but still notable deals with José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and David Robertson (one year, $10MM).

That spending spree added to a roster that already had the league’s highest payroll. Certainly, the Mets faced a number of key departures as well. They allowed Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to sign elsewhere. That said, they’re already projected well beyond this year’s spending level. New York opened the 2022 campaign with a player payroll around $264MM; they’re projected by Roster Resource at a staggering $336MM figure for next season.

It’s an unparalleled number in league history, one that leaves open the question of how far owner Steve Cohen and his front office are willing to go. Cohen has proven himself undeterred by traditional spending habits, and he’s certainly seemed unfazed by the luxury tax that’s ostensibly in place to prevent any team from spending head and shoulders above the rest.

Roster Resource projects the Mets’ luxury tax number around $350MM at the moment. They’re $117MM clear of the base tax threshold and are going to blow past all four tiers of penalization. New York paid the CBT this past season, so they’re also facing escalating penalties for going over for a second straight year. The Mets will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold ($6MM), a 42% tax on their next $20MM in overages ($8.4MM), a 75% tax on their next $20MM in surplus spending ($15MM) and a 90% tax on any additional dollars. New York is currently an estimated $57MM above the fourth and final tier, one colloquially known as the “Cohen tax” after being introduced in the most recent CBA at least partially in response to Cohen’s reputation for spending. That’s another $51.3MM in taxes, bringing New York’s total projected tax bill to a staggering $80.7MM.

Of course, that’s before considering the possibility of adding another megadeal. Correa is the best free agent still on the board. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a nine-year, $288MM contract. The two top shortstops already off the board — Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts — each best our predictions, with Bogaerts’ $280MM contract coming in well above most expectations. In light of the strength of the market, Correa pushing past $300MM now seems likely, and one could argue for him to approach the $360MM guarantee Aaron Judge received from the Yankees given Correa’s youth and greater defensive value.

Even if we conservatively pencil Correa in for the pre-offseason prediction of $288MM over nine years, that’d come out to a $32MM annual salary. New York would be taxed at 90% on top of that, effectively making it a $60.8MM commitment to the star shortstop for next season. It’d be the kind of move a team has never made for an individual player, and again, that now seems a rather pessimistic view of Correa’s earning power. Certainly, the deal could push longer than nine years and lower the annual salary somewhat — Turner and Bogaerts each received 11 years despite being older than Correa — but any permutation of the contract would involve the team investing an immense sum. Cohen has clearly established himself as an owner unconcerned with precedent, and it’d be foolish to count the Mets out on any free agent at this point.

The Mets don’t need a shortstop, of course, with Francisco Lindor locked in as their long-term answer at the position. Third base isn’t accounted for by a star, with veteran Eduardo Escobar coming off an average season and top prospect Brett Baty still unproven at the MLB level. Relying on Escobar and Baty wouldn’t be a disaster, but installing Correa alongside Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Lindor would lock in All-Star caliber players everywhere on the infield.

Beyond the Mets, the Giants and incumbent Twins are reported to be prioritizing Correa at this stage of the offseason. They’re widely viewed as the top suitors, while teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have been more loosely linked to him. Dansby Swanson, who’s drawing attention from many of the same clubs, remains available as the clear second-best position player still on the open market.

Royals Sign Ryan Yarbrough

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The Royals announced they’ve signed left-hander Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3MM guarantee with $1MM in available incentives for the Excel Sports Management client. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, K.C. designated reliever Wyatt Mills for assignment.

Initially drafted by the Mariners, Yarbrough was dealt to the Rays as a prospect. He debuted with Tampa Bay in 2018 and has spent the past half-decade there, finding a fair bit of success for his first few seasons. Yarbrough broke into the big leagues with a 3.81 ERA across 147 1/3 innings, finishing fifth in AL Rookie of the Year balloting. He only technically started six of 38 games, but he proved a versatile piece of the pitching staff for manager Kevin Cash and pitching coach Kyle Snyder. Yarbrough was frequently called upon to soak up innings behind an opener, a role he also filled fairly frequently in 2019.

The Old Dominion product pitched to a 4.13 ERA over 141 2/3 frames during his second season, starting half of his 28 appearances. He posted a 3.56 ERA in 55 2/3 innings during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Heading into 2021, Yarbrough had tossed 344 2/3 career innings while allowing just under four earned runs per nine innings. Even without a power arsenal, he consistently assumed one of the heavier workloads on the Tampa Bay staff thanks to his stellar control and willingness to work in different roles.

Things have gone downhill over the past two seasons. Yarbrough led the team in innings in 2021, tossing 155 frames. His production fell off, though, as he allowed a career-worst 5.11 ERA. His strikeout and walk numbers weren’t much different than his results in prior seasons, but he became increasingly home run prone. The Rays tendered him a contract in hope of a bounceback, and while his numbers did improve this year, they were still worse than his early-career marks.

Yarbrough worked 80 innings, his lowest workload in a 162-game season since debuting. He put up a 4.50 ERA, allowing 1.35 homers per nine innings. The former fourth-round draftee continued to demonstrate strong control, walking only 6.2% of batters faced. His 17.2% strikeout rate was a career low but not drastically below his previous marks, as he’s never been one to miss many bats.

Without a power arsenal, Yarbrough has succeeded on deception and an ability to avoid hard contact. He hasn’t been quite so effective at avoiding barrels in recent seasons as he was for his first three years, perhaps thanks to a dip in velocity. Yarbrough has never averaged even 90 MPH on his fastball, but he’d been in the 87-89 MPH range early in his career. For the past two seasons, his average fastball has checked in below 87 MPH. The cutter, which he uses as his primary pitch, has dipped into the low-80s after previously sitting as high as 86.9 MPH in 2018.

The Rays moved on from Yarbrough in lieu of an arbitration salary that’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $4.2MM. He’ll move to the spacious Kauffman Stadium in hopes of getting the longball back in check in 2023. Yarbourgh reunites there with first-year skipper Matt Quatraro, who’d spent the last four seasons on the Tampa Bay staff as bench coach. With between four and five years of MLB service, he’ll be eligible for arbitration again next offseason. If Yarbrough rights the ship, the Royals can keep him around through the end of 2024 despite only guaranteeing him one year.

It’s a modest price point for K.C., whose projected payroll now sits around $78MM, per Roster Resource. The Royals opened this past season at around $95MM in player spending. Nevertheless, GM J.J. Picollo suggested earlier this offseason the team wasn’t operating with much spending capacity. An affordable roll of the dice on Yarbrough makes plenty of sense, particularly given the new skipper’s ties to the southpaw.

The Royals could plug Yarbrough into either the rotation or long relief. Brady Singer has one rotation spot sewn up, but the rest of the staff seems open. Daniel Lynch will likely be back in the front five after starting 27 games in 2022, with Yarbrough joining Kris Bubic, Brad Keller, Carlos Hernández, Max Castillo, Jonathan Bowlan and Angel Zerpa among those who could jostle for starts. Adding another starter this winter seems likely, and the Royals could certainly look to bring back Zack Greinke on another one-year free agent deal.

Mills joined the Royals last summer in the trade with the Mariners that offloaded some of the money owed to Carlos Santana. He made 19 MLB appearances in Kansas City, working to a 4.79 ERA across 20 2/3 innings. The righty posted slightly worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 10.6%, respectively) over that stretch. He punched out a massive 39.7% of batters faced in 13 outings for Triple-A Omaha, but he also walked more than 17% of opponents in that look.

Kansas City will now have a week to trade the 27-year-old (28 next month) or place him on waivers. Mills has a minor league option year remaining, so a team that acquires him would be able to move him between MLB and Triple-A next season.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the deal contained a $3MM guarantee and up to $1MM in performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Acquire Jake Wong From Giants

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The Reds announced they’ve acquired minor league pitcher Jake Wong from the Giants. The deal completes a swap the teams orchestrated in the hours after the Rule 5 draft, when Cincinnati sent outfielder Blake Sabol to San Francisco.

Wong was a third-round pick of San Francisco out of Grand Canyon in 2018. His progression up the minor league ladder was delayed after the 2019 season, as the canceled minor league season wiped out his 2020. The Arizona native spent the following year on the minor league injured list, returning in 2022. He played this year at High-A Eugene, starting 17 of 25 appearances. In 97 2/3 innings, the righty pitched to a 4.52 ERA with a solid 25.3% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.3% walk percentage.

Now 26 years old, Wong has still yet to reach the high minors. Given that lack of upper level experience, it’s not surprising he was left unprotected for and went unselected in this month’s Rule 5 draft. The Reds liked him enough to take a shot on him now that they need not dedicate him an active or 40-man roster spot. He’ll presumably start next year in Double-A or Triple-A and add some rotation depth to the organization.

Sabol has a much better chance of breaking camp in the big leagues. Cincinnati nabbed him out of the Pirates organization with the fourth pick in the Rule 5 draft. They presumably had worked out an understanding with the Giants — who didn’t select until 16th — that they’d flip him to San Francisco before making the pick, since the selections themselves cannot be traded. San Francisco will have to carry Sabol on the MLB roster or injured list all season or place him on waivers and, if he goes unclaimed, offer him back to Pittsburgh without requiring a 40-man spot.

Twins, Patrick Murphy Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are in agreement with right-hander Patrick Murphy on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on Twitter). Presumably, the 27-year-old will get a chance to compete for a big league job in Spring Training.

Murphy has suited up at the highest level in each of the past three seasons. Originally a third-round selection of the Blue Jays in 2013, he spent parts of eight years in the Toronto system. Murphy was generally regarded as a solid prospect, but he battled myriad injury concerns in the minors that delayed his push up the ladder. He finally reached the majors during the abbreviated 2020 season, working six innings of relief across four appearances.

Toronto shuttled him on and off the active roster for most of 2021, eventually designating him for assignment in August. He landed with the Nationals via waivers, making 17 appearances with Washington down the stretch. Murphy held his roster spot over the winter and pitched six more times this past April before the Nats took him off the 40-man roster. He went unclaimed this time around, spending the remainder of the year with Triple-A Rochester before electing minor league free agency at season’s end.

Over his three MLB seasons, Murphy has tallied 39 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball. He has a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.7% walk percentage. He’s averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball but hasn’t missed many bats at the big league level. Murphy did punch out a solid 26.1% of opponents with a lofty 50% grounder rate over 63 frames in Triple-A this year, although he still walked just under 12% of batters faced.

While Murphy has some experience as a starter in the minors, he’s worked primarily as a multi-inning reliever for the past three seasons. That’s the role he’s expected to play in Minnesota, where he’ll compete for a spot in Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen. He’s out of minor league option years, so if he does crack the MLB roster at any point, he’ll have to remain in the majors or again be designated for assignment.

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