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Ben Lively To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Guardians right-hander Ben Lively will undergo Tommy John surgery and a flexor tendon repair, the team announced. The righty is expected to miss 12 to 16 months. That means he’ll miss the remainder of the 2025 season and maybe all of ’26 as well. He’s already on the 15-day injured list and will be moved to the 60-day IL whenever Cleveland needs his 40-man roster spot.

“Earlier this week, RHP Ben Lively sought a second opinion on his injured right elbow with Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, TX,” the club’s statement reads. “Dr. Meister confirmed the presence of a flexor tendon injury while also noting medial elbow joint laxity due to an insufficient ulnar collateral ligament. Both team physicians and Dr. Meister believe the joint laxity is placing added stress on the flexor muscles and have recommended UCL reconstruction along with flexor tendon repair. No surgical date has been set but is expected in the coming days with Dr. Meister. Return to play timeframes in similar cases are 12-16 months.”

Lively was unexpectedly tabbed as Cleveland’s Opening Day starter this season after an illness ruled Tanner Bibee out for that assignment. The 33-year-old didn’t have a great outing, surrendering three runs over five innings in Kansas City. However, he has arguably been Cleveland’s best starting pitcher through the season’s first month and a half. After posting a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings a year ago, he worked to a 3.22 mark across nine starts this year. He’s up to nearly 200 innings with a 3.68 ERA in a Cleveland uniform since signing for a modest $750K as a free agent during the 2023-24 offseason.

It has been the most successful stretch of Lively’s big league tenure. He’d spent parts of two seasons apiece as a depth starter with the Phillies and Royals early in his career. He then pitched in Korea for three seasons before returning stateside with the Reds in 2022. Lively allowed 5.38 earned runs per nine with Cincinnati and was waived at the end of that year. Cleveland saw enough to give him a major league contract, and they were rewarded with generally solid results until he left the mound with forearm pain during a start against the Brewers last week.

There’s a decent chance this will end his Guardians tenure. Lively is playing this season on a $2.25MM contract after qualifying for arbitration for the first time. He’d be due a slight raise next year if tendered a contract. The Guardians will need to decide whether to offer him something in the $3MM range to spend most or all of next season rehabbing, then pay a similar salary for a hopefully healthy ’27 campaign. He’d be nearing his 35th birthday at that point. Lively doesn’t throw hard or miss many bats, so the team may feel they can more cheaply replace his production and non-tender him.

In the short term, it’s a hit to an already questionable starting staff. Cleveland starters rank 19th in both ERA and strikeout rate. They’re 23rd in innings pitched. Lively led the group in ERA. Slade Cecconi, who was acquired from the Diamondbacks for Josh Naylor over the winter, was activated from his own IL stint on Saturday to take Lively’s rotation spot. He worked five innings of three-run ball in his team debut. He slots behind Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz and Logan Allen for the time being. Shane Bieber and John Means are potential second-half reinforcements as they work back from their own UCL procedures.

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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Braves Expected To Activate Ronald Acuna On Friday

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Ronald Acuña Jr. is seemingly one day away from his return to Truist Park. The Braves scratched Acuña from what would have been his sixth rehab appearance with Triple-A Gwinnett. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reports that Acuña is en route to meet the team in Atlanta. Francys Romero adds that the Braves intend to activate him from the injured list before tomorrow’s series opener against the Padres.

It’s three days shy of the one-year anniversary of Acuña’s season-ending ACL tear. On May 26, 2024, he tore the ligament in his left knee while bluffing a stolen base attempt. It was the second time in his seven-year career that a season had been cut short by a devastating knee injury. Acuña tore the ACL in his right knee in July 2021, sidelining him for their World Series run.

Acuña made a quicker return from his first ACL tear. He was reinstated before the end of April 2022. He showed some signs of rust throughout that year, hitting .266/.351/.413 the rest of the way. That was well below his 2018-21 production. He followed with a career-best season to win the 2023 NL MVP award. He’d been out to a slower start last season, batting .250/.351/.365 across 49 games.

The Braves took things more slowly with Acuña’s second ACL rehab. He didn’t log any game action in Spring Training and has spent the first two months of the season on the IL. Atlanta sent him to their complex to begin a rehab assignment 10 days ago. He played one game there before reporting to Gwinnett, where he collected five hits and took seven walks in five games. The Braves have evidently seen enough to plug him back into Brian Snitker’s lineup, presumably in his customary leadoff spot.

Alex Verdugo has been hitting atop the order while playing every day in left field. He’s struggling offensively for a second consecutive year. Verdugo has hit .257/.314/.330 without a home run in 118 plate appearances. That’s on par with his .233/.291/.356 batting line in last season’s disappointing run with the Yankees.

Acuña has been a full-time right fielder over the past half-decade. He’ll slot back into that position, where Eli White has played his way into regular playing time. He could slide to left field and cut into Verdugo’s reps. White hit .311/.367/.600 with eight extra-base hits in April. His bat has cooled this month (.269/.310/.358 with no home runs), but that’s still a bit better than what Verdugo has provided.

White hits right-handed but has been better without the platoon advantage throughout his career. The lefty-hitting Verdugo is much better against righty pitching, as expected. Jurickson Profar will be back from his PED suspension in July. He’ll presumably return to everyday left field work, though he’d be ineligible for postseason play if the Braves qualify.

Atlanta has clawed back to .500 following their 0-7 start to the season. They’re three games back of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, which is currently held by the team they’ll welcome tomorrow. San Diego swept the Braves over a four-game set to open the year, but they’re taking a six-game losing streak into this weekend’s series.

The Braves technically only need to create an active roster spot for Acuña’s return from the 10-day IL, but they’re quite likely to designate someone for assignment tomorrow. Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II are the only hitters on the active roster who have minor league options. Luke Williams, Stuart Fairchild and Orlando Arcia are all out of options and have seen little to no playing time off the bench in recent weeks.

A’s To Promote Denzel Clarke

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The A’s are promoting Denzel Clarke from Triple-A Las Vegas, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s the first major league call for the outfield prospect, who was added to the 40-man roster last November. A’s manager Mark Kotsay said this afternoon that infielder Gio Urshela was headed to the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain (relayed by Martín Gallegos of MLB.com).

While that could be a simple one-for-one swap, it’s possible there will be a broader set of moves tomorrow. Passan suggests the A’s could make multiple changes to the roster after losing their ninth consecutive game today. They’re the first team in MLB to drop nine in a row this season, and things won’t get any easier this weekend. The A’s host the Phillies — winners of seven straight and holding the NL’s best record at 32-20 — beginning tomorrow.

Clarke, 25, is from Toronto but played his college ball at Cal State Northridge. The A’s selected him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft, taking a flier on his immense physical tools despite concerns about his pure hitting ability. Clarke is listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds. He draws praise for his raw power from the right side. Perhaps more surprising is his excellent athleticism despite that size. Offseason reports at both Baseball America and FanGraphs credited Clarke with plus-plus speed and projected him as an elite defender in center field.

It’s an obviously intriguing toolset, but the concerns are equally apparent from Clarke’s minor league numbers. Like many hitters of his size, he struggles to make contact. Clarke has struck out in 30% of his plate appearances during his five-season professional career. To his credit, he has dramatically improved in that regard this season. Clarke is fanning at a manageable 21.8% clip while drawing walks at a massive 17.3% rate this year with Las Vegas. He owns a .286/.436/.419 batting line.

However, the lower strikeout rate has come with a dramatic spike in ground balls. He’s putting the ball on the ground nearly 70% of the time he makes contact. Clarke has the speed to turn a lot of those into hits, but that’s an obvious cap on his power production. He hasn’t hit a home run in 133 plate appearances in Triple-A. He’s obviously much stronger than that would suggest, evidenced by his three consecutive double-digit homer seasons in the lower levels between 2022-24.

It’s unlikely the A’s would bring Clarke up for sporadic playing time. He might push JJ Bleday out of the starting center field role. Clarke should immediately provide a big defensive upgrade over Bleday, a natural corner outfielder who has graded as one of the sport’s worst defensive center fielders over the past two seasons.

The A’s were willing to live with that when Bleday was producing offensively last season, as he hit 20 homers with a .243/.324/.437 slash. He’s not producing on either side of the ball this year, as his offense has slumped to a .204/.291/.365 showing. He’s hitting .175 with a .254 on-base percentage this month and has fallen to eighth or ninth in the lineup after starting the season as the #3 hitter.

Urshela signed a one-year deal over the winter to compete for the starting third base job. Luis Urías has outplayed him to take that position, leaving Urshela as a semi-regular depth infielder. He’s hitting .219 without a home run in 31 games. Max Schuemann is already on hand as a utility piece, so the A’s don’t need to directly replace Urshela with another infielder.

David Villar Elects Free Agency

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Infielder David Villar elected free agency after being outrighted by the Giants, relays Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. He’d been designated for assignment on Monday with Casey Schmitt returning from the injured list.

Villar, 28, will look for a new opportunity for the first time in his career. He has been with the Giants since they selected him in the 11th round of the 2018 draft. The right-handed hitter showed some promise during his rookie season three years ago. He hit nine home runs with a .455 slugging percentage in 52 games. He would have needed to improve upon a 32% strikeout rate to find long-term success, though.

The Giants never gave him much of a chance to do so. Villar appeared in 46 games the following season, and he hit just .145 while striking out 32% of the time. That more or less closed the book on his MLB tenure in San Francisco. He has appeared in only 20 big league contests over the past two seasons. Villar has tallied well over 1200 Triple-A plate appearances over the last three years. He’s a lifetime .273/.381/.507 hitter with 61 home runs at the top minor league level.

That minor league production has also come with a decent amount of swing-and-miss. Villar has punched out at a near-26% clip in Triple-A. He has cleared outright waivers twice in the past two months, suggesting every team has trepidation about him making enough contact to produce at the big league level. He’d be limited to minor league offers if he remains in the affiliated ranks. Speculatively speaking, he could also explore opportunities in a foreign league. That’s a relatively common path for players in their mid-late 20s who have had Triple-A success but face questions about their ability to hit major league pitching.

Rhys Hoskins’ Offensive Resurgence

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Rhys Hoskins’ first season in Milwaukee was a disappointment. The Brewers signed the veteran slugger to a two-year, $34MM free agent contract over the 2023-24 offseason. Hoskins had missed his entire walk year because of a Spring Training ACL tear. He entered the offseason healthy, and Milwaukee placed a sizable bet — especially by their standards — that he’d look no worse for wear in 2024.

The deal included an opt-out after the first season. The ideal outcome for everyone involved was Hoskins would mash for one year, opt out, potentially receive and reject a qualifying offer, then sign elsewhere on a longer-term contract. That isn’t how things played out. Hoskins started the season well enough, but he hit .203/.285/.395 from the start of June through season’s end. He decided not to opt out, leaving the Brew Crew with a $22MM commitment for a first baseman coming off the worst season of his career. The contract meant they couldn’t drum up trade interest, leaving them to retain Hoskins as the team’s second highest-paid player.

While it wasn’t what the front office had planned, that investment looks a lot better now than it did two months ago. Hoskins has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He’ll take a .300/.402/.500 batting line into tonight’s series opener in Pittsburgh. He joins Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith as the only four hitters with at least 100 plate appearances and the rare .300/.400/.500+ triple slash.

Hoskins looks like the impact bat he was throughout his tenure in Philadelphia. He’s taking walks at a characteristically excellent 14% rate while striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip. He has hit seven home runs while averaging 91.4 MPH on batted balls. It’s an across the board improvement relative to his first season in Milwaukee. He’s taking more free passes, striking out less often, and making more authoritative contact. This has been a better start than his strong first two months of last season. He carried a .239/.342/.471 slash with fewer walks and hard-hit balls through the end of May 2024.

It’s true that Hoskins has benefitted from a career-high .362 average on balls in play. That’s going to come down, and Hoskins is highly unlikely to hit above .300 all year. He was more reliably a .245 hitter for the Phillies. That’s a fairer baseline. That’s also sufficient for a player with 25-30 home run pop and an extremely disciplined plate approach. Hoskins was consistently around 25-30 percent better than an average hitter during his time in Philadelphia, as measured by wRC+. That was enough to make him a top 40 or so hitter in MLB.

Hoskins’ rebound also figures to make him an interesting trade candidate. The Brewers are out to a 24-26 start, putting them fourth in the NL Central. They’re six games back in the division and 4.5 out of the Wild Card race with five teams to jump. They’re certainly not out of it with more than 110 games to make up the gap, yet they’re also not clear-cut contenders as they were every season between 2018-24.

Even if the Brewers don’t find themselves as true “sellers,” they could try to move Hoskins. Like many small-market contenders, Milwaukee tends to take a more flexible trade approach — shopping expensive veterans with dwindling club control windows while targeting cheaper players who could immediately contribute to the MLB team. Hoskins would be a candidate for that kind of move even if the Brewers are at or slightly above .500 in July.

On the one hand, Hoskins would be a straightforward trade candidate as one of the best available rental bats. The Red Sox need first base help after the Triston Casas injury. The Giants have gotten a dismal .193/.294/.339 line from their first basemen and could use a short-term bridge before calling upon top prospect Bryce Eldridge. (That Hoskins is a Sacramento native who attended Sacramento State would be an added bonus.) The Mariners, Twins and Reds are other teams that could upgrade at first base.

That’s complicated by the contract, which could be onerous for some teams. Hoskins is living up to his salary in a vacuum, but many clubs are reluctant to take on significant money midseason. There will still be roughly $5.6MM of his $18MM salary to be paid from the deadline through the end of the regular season. More notably, there’s a $4MM buyout on an $18MM mutual option for 2026. The option is going to be declined — quite likely by Hoskins — and the team will need to pay the buyout on February 1, 2026. That might be a bigger stumbling block for an acquiring club. It’s possible teams will want the Brewers to cover a portion of the buyout to facilitate a trade.

Teams may negotiate conditional cash considerations for option buyouts in trade talks; last summer’s trade of Eloy Jiménez from the White Sox to Baltimore is one recent example. That’s not an option on waivers, however. Hypothetically, say the Brewers hold Hoskins past the deadline but fall firmly out of contention in August. It’s possible they’d take the increasingly common approach of trying to dump his salary by placing him on outright waivers before the September 1 deadline for playoff eligibility. There’s a decent chance Hoskins would clear in that scenario, as a claiming team would become responsible for the entire option buyout for what amounts to one regular season month (plus a hopeful playoff run).

Perhaps the Brewers will catch fire over the next two months and make that all a moot point. If Hoskins rakes all season and helps Milwaukee back to the postseason, they could hold him and even consider a qualifying offer to potentially recoup a draft choice if he walks as a free agent.

Image courtesy of Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images.

The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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NBC Makes Offer For Broadcasts Currently Carried By ESPN

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In February, MLB and ESPN each triggered an opt-out clause in their broadcasting agreement for the 2026-28 seasons. That means that as things stand, this is ESPN’s final year carrying MLB games. The network carries an exclusive regular season game every Sunday night, the Home Run Derby, and the Wild Card round of the postseason.

Joe Flint and Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal report that NBCUniversal, a subsidiary of Comcast, made MLB an offer this month for the package of games from which ESPN walked away. The length of the offer isn’t clear, nor are specifics on the rights fees. However, The Wall Street Journal reports that NBC’s offer was for “much less” than what ESPN currently pays. In February, Evan Drellich and Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reported that ESPN would have owed $550MM annually for the 2026-28 seasons had it not opted out.

Obviously, ESPN determined that price was above market value when it opted out. The network said at the time that it was “open to exploring new ways to serve MLB fans across our platforms beyond 2025.” Diamond and Isabella Simonetti of The Wall Street Journal reported in March that ESPN had indicated it was willing to pay a maximum of $200MM per season during renegotiations leading up to the opt-out date. MLB balked, and the sides agreed to terminate the contract after this season. NBC’s offer is evidently for well below $550MM per year. It’s unclear if it tops the $200MM annual sum which ESPN had floated.

ESPN has carried Sunday Night Baseball since 1990 and the Home Run Derby since ’93. It has broadcast the Wild Card round since that was introduced with the expanded playoff in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. It seems NBC is interested in acquiring all three of those, though Flint and Diamond write that NBC is not pursuing international/radio rights or access to highlight clips that ESPN currently receives (partially justifying the lower bid).

NBC has an agreement with the National Football League for its Sunday Night Football slate. Last July, it reached an 11-year contract with the National Basketball Association for a package of 100 regular season games and the NBA All-Star Game. (That goes into effect during the upcoming basketball season.) According to The Wall Street Journal report, the network would stream some of its MLB games on its Peacock service when those games conflict with its other live sports. Those interested in the topic are encouraged to read the Wall Street Journal’s report in full.

Jean Segura Retires

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Longtime MLB infielder Jean Segura has retired, according to a social media post from his representatives at CAA. Segura last appeared in the majors in 2023 and spent time in Triple-A with the Orioles last season.

Segura had an accomplished 12-year big league run. The Dominican Republic native signed as an amateur with the Angels in 2007. He was one of the sport’s top prospects when he debuted with the Halos in July 2012. Segura played one game, then was traded to Milwaukee less than a week later as the centerpiece of the prospect package for Zack Greinke.

The Brewers immediately installed Segura as their starting shortstop. He held that role for the next three and a half seasons. His first full season was his best in Milwaukee, as he hit .294 to earn an All-Star selection. His production plummeted between 2014-15. The Brewers moved on before the ’16 season, moving him to the Diamondbacks in a deal for starter Chase Anderson and minor league second baseman Isan Díaz.

Segura only spent one season in the desert, but it was the best year of his career. He led the National League with 203 hits while posting a .319/.368/.499 line over 694 plate appearances. He set personal highs in all three slash stats. He tallied a career-high 41 doubles and hit 20 home runs for the only time. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each credited him with over six wins above replacement.

Fantastic as Segura’s season was, his greatest impact on the Arizona organization came the following winter. They packaged him alongside Mitch Haniger to Seattle for Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker. Marte is on track to spend over a decade with the Snakes and has become one of the best players in franchise history.

The Mariners signed Segura to a five-year, $70MM extension midway through his first season in the Pacific Northwest. He would only spend one year of that contract in Seattle, though he remained an above-average regular during his time there. He hit .300 or better in both years and slashed .302/.345/.421 in nearly 1200 plate appearances overall. He was on the move again during the 2018-19 offseason. The M’s dealt him to Philadelphia in a deal that netted J.P. Crawford.

The move worked out well for both clubs. Crawford has developed into Seattle’s long-term answer at shortstop. Segura was a solid regular over four seasons with the Phils — first at shortstop, then for three seasons at second base. He hit .281/.337/.418 in 427 games in a Philadelphia uniform. It was his second-longest run with one team, trailing his early-career stint in Milwaukee. It also afforded him the only playoff experience of his career. Segura was a regular throughout the Phils’ pennant run in 2022, though he hit .214 in 17 postseason games.

Philadelphia bought out Segura’s $17MM club option for the 2023 season. That sent him to the free agent market for the first time. He signed a two-year, $17MM contract with the Marlins to move to third base. The deal did not pan out, as he hit .219/.277/.279 across 85 games for the Fish. They traded him to the Guardians in a salary swap for Josh Bell at the ’23 deadline. Cleveland immediately released him, and Segura’s final game as a Marlin turned out to be his last in the big leagues.

While his last season didn’t go well, Segura can look back on a very good major league career. He finishes with a .281/.327/.401 batting line in more than 1400 games. He topped 1500 hits, connected on 110 home runs, and stole 211 bases. Segura drove in 513 runs and scored 737 times. He hit .300 on three occasions, made a pair of All-Star Games, and received down-ballot MVP votes for his year in Arizona. Baseball Reference calculates his lifetime earnings close to $106MM. He was a part of five notable trades, two of which remain consequential today. MLBTR congratulates Segura on his run and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of John Geliebter, Imagn Images.

Giants Sign Andrew Knizner To Minor League Deal

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The Giants signed catcher Andrew Knizner to a minor league contract. The deal was first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. He has already made his organizational debut, collecting hits in each of his first three at-bats with Triple-A Sacramento.

Knizner is picking up where he’d left off as a member of the Nationals organization. The 30-year-old had raked at a .382/.516/.500 clip with more walks than strikeouts over 23 games for their top affiliate. Washington nevertheless granted him his release over the weekend. Knizner was set to trigger an opt-out. The Nats preferred to stick with their current catching tandem of Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams rather than override the opt-out by calling him up.

While Knizner obviously isn’t going to keep up this pace, he’s a productive minor league hitter. He carried a .287/.379/.435 batting line over parts of four Triple-A seasons into play tonight. He has had a far tougher time against MLB pitching. Knizner is a career .210/.279/.317 hitter in almost 900 plate appearances at the big league level. He spent parts of five seasons backing up Yadier Molina and Willson Contreras, respectively, in St. Louis.

Knizner moved to Texas on a $1.825MM free agent deal heading into 2024. He spent most of the year as Jonah Heim’s backup, but he didn’t perform especially well. Knizner hit .167/.183/.211 over 35 games. Texas acquired Carson Kelly at the deadline and designated Knizner for assignment not long after. He landed with the Diamondbacks via waiver claim. His time in Arizona consisted of 22 Triple-A games. The Snakes outrighted him off their 40-man roster without getting him into a big league contest.

Patrick Bailey is entrenched as the starting catcher in San Francisco. Sam Huff hasn’t provided much in sporadic playing time as the backup. He’s hitting .200 with one homer and 22 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances. Knizner joins Max Stassi and Logan Porter as non-roster depth at Triple-A. Knizner has been the most productive of that trio in the minors this year, potentially positioning him as the top challenger if the Giants decide to move on from the out-of-options Huff at any point.

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