Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Acuna, Luciano, Quero, Saggese
The Trade Deadline seems to be happening early this year. Between the time I begin writing and this is posted, there might be more deals involving big-name prospects. This week, we’ll focus on the recently completed swaps. We’ll check back on the leftovers next time.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE (AAA)
313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442
Manzardo burst onto Top 100 prospect rankings last season with a flashy 22-homer performance in nearly 400 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He has all the traits armchair prospect analysts (like myself) crave – plus discipline, a high rate of contact, and above-average exit velocities. If there was a fly in the ointment, his combination of high BABIPs and frequent fly balls seemed untenable. This season, he’s dropped to a more plausible .269 BABIP while maintaining the fly ball rate. His 2023 numbers more closely match his identity. His power outcomes have backed up, but there’s little cause for long-term concern. Additionally, Progressive Field is friendly to left-handed power hitters. Manzardo is undersized for a first baseman, and his power draws 45 and 50 grades on the 20/80 scouting scale. The profile reads a lot like a four-inches-shorter, left-handed Rhys Hoskins.
Luisangel Acuna, 21, 2B/SS, NYM (AA)
402 PA, 7 HR, 42 SB, .315/.377/.452
Repeating Double-A after a rough first exposure last season, Acuna has looked comfortable at the level. His BABIP-fueled batting line is 21 percent above league average (121 wRC+) despite middling power numbers. Like his brother, Luisangel has terrorized opponents on the basepaths. Scouts rate him as merely an above-average runner. There is a degree of swing-and-miss (12.4% SwStr%) to Acuna’s game that calls his future role into question. He’s expected to grow into average or better power if he can learn to lift the ball more consistently. Whether or not he can do so without developing a strikeout problem could depend on the sort of adjustment required. Lift-related mechanical changes tend to exacerbate whiff issues. In some cases, the issue is the location of contact – an adjustment that can yield positive results without negative repercussions. Acuna’s swing is violent and loud. Change could prove challenging. Despite strong walk rates, Acuna is an aggressive swinger, particularly at breaking balls below the zone.
Necessary offensive adjustments aside, there’s also question about Acuna’s future defensive role. He’s a physically capable shortstop who yet lacks polish. Lately, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing shortstop prospects with precocious defensive ability. Acuna could be asked to move over to second or third to better accommodate his ascent alongside Francisco Lindor.
Marco Luciano, 21, SS, SFG (MLB)
(AA) 242 PA, 11 HR, 6 SB, .228/.339/.450
The only member of today’s column who wasn’t traded, the Giants rushed Luciano to the Majors to cover a short-term opening at shortstop. Despite tepid overall numbers at Double-A, Luciano caught a heater beginning in late June. He batted .315/.397/.500 over his final 63 plate appearances at the level. His success carried over to a 27-plate appearance stint in Triple-A where he batted .292/.370/.625 with Major League caliber exit velocities. He’s 3-for-11 with five strikeouts thus far in the Majors. The once uber-prospect has developed into a slug-over-contact future third baseman. His strikeout rate might check in north of 30 percent. Only 11 qualified hitters have strikeout rates above 30 percent. The good news is nine of 11 have above-average batting lines. The two who don’t – Teoscar Hernandez and Byron Buxton – are celebrated hitters. Luciano will look to join this cohort of hitters.
It’s unlikely Luciano sticks with the contending Giants in the short term.
Edgar Quero, 20, C, CWS (AA)
321 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .246/.386/.332
A switch-hitter, Quero emerged as a bat-first catching prospect last season when he hit .312/.435/.530 with 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 515 Low-A plate appearances. The Angels made the curious decision to skip him past High-A – perhaps seeking to pair him with a better defensive instructor. His discipline remained in evidence this season. The power… not so much. Another plausible explanation of Quero’s aggressive assignment is to see if he merited moving to a different position to accommodate his bat. Instead, the Angels moved him from the organization entirely in the Lucas Giolito trade. Look for Chicago to slow the roll on Quero’s development. His defensive skills are reported to remain relatively raw.
Thomas Saggese, 21, 3B, STL (AA)
418 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .313/.379/.512
Saggese doesn’t have the physical traits evaluators crave, but he makes up for it with a hard-nosed playstyle. Part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, it feels like he was always destined to join the Cardinals. His tools draw a collection of 40 and 50 grades, but his feel for quality contact allows the total package to play up. Multiple reports reference his success against sliders. Something to watch is how he performs against upper-level pitchers with big fastballs and command. The Cardinals might seek to add corner outfield to Saggese’s bag of tricks. He fits best at third base, is considered too short for first base, and just passes at second base. The Cards love their role players to possess a deep well of utility.
Three More
Tekoah Roby, STL (21): The prospect headliner of the Montgomery trade, Roby has a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings. His best weapon is a double-plus curve ball. He’s currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. There’s relief risk for health reasons only – the stuff and command are sufficient to project a mid-rotation role.
Marco Vargas, NYM (18): Stolen from the Marlins in the David Robertson trade, Vargas is one of the flashier talents in the complex. He’s batting .283/.457/.442 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts and a strong rate of contact. Power development will decide whether he’s viewed as a future utility fielder or core performer.
Adam Kloffenstein, STL (22): Part of the return for Jordan Hicks, Kloffenstein is a big right-hander with a limited repertoire. He tunnels a sinker and slider in a way reminiscent of Brady Singer and Brad Keller. He has a solid feel for command and projects to eat innings in an uninspiring way. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 89 Double-A frames.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Gasser, Mead, Vientos, Frelick, Horton
Big Hype Prospects returns with a peek at the upper minors. Let’s get down to business…
Five Big Hype Prospects
Robert Gasser, 24, SP, MIL (AAA)
90.1 IP, 10.86 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 4.18 ERA
One of the best pitching prospects remaining in Triple-A, Gasser could find his way into the Milwaukee rotation by the end of the season – if not sooner. Presently, the weak links are Colin Rea and Adrian Houser. Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return to oust one of those swingmen. Gasser is a southpaw with unusual arm action, but the Brewers pitching development staff specializes in the bizarre and grotesque, so Gasser could scarcely be in a better system for his particular brand of pitching. While he doesn’t have visually impressive stuff, the whole repertoire plays up due to plus command. Gasser might have some issues with right-handed batters.
Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (AAA)
173 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .311/.376/.497
The 2023 campaign hasn’t gone Mead’s way. Between missed time and a slow start, the powerful corner-man has only three home runs. Lately, he’s caught fire to the tune of .431/.493/.677 over his last 75 plate appearances, with nine walks and four strikeouts. While he has only one home run during this hot streak, Mead also swatted nine doubles and two triples. Over-the-fence results will come before long. In the meantime, Mead is swinging a big stick with the sorts of exit velocities associated with MLB regulars (89.4-mph average, 109.5-mph max).
Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, 23, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 264 PA, 16 HR, .307/.386/.614
The Mets recently recalled Vientos despite mediocre performance on the farm, as Vientos has hit .264/.316/.472 (90 wRC+) in 57 Triple-A plate appearances since the start of July. He thrived in the minors earlier in the season and certainly deserves an extended look with the retooling Mets. Vientos presents a complicated evaluation, as his positives include plus discipline, premium raw power, and exciting in-game exit velocities. However, scouts point out issues with his swing which could prove exploitable. In 99 career MLB plate appearances, Vientos is batting just .189/.253/.267 despite excellent exit velocities (93.3-mph average, 114.9-mph max). Those are basically the exact same EVs as Juan Soto and MJ Melendez. The Melendez comp is interesting, as the young Royals slugger is having a rough season due partly to swing-and-miss issues and partly to an expansive home venue. Vientos faces similar challenges with his swing and ballpark.
Sal Frelick, OF, 23, MIL (MLB)
(AAA) 183 PA, 2 HR, 8 SB, .237/.333/.342
Recently promoted to Milwaukee, it is hoped Frelick can become a top-of-the-lineup sparkplug. He’s known for discipline and a high rate of contact. He’s also not a particularly impactful hitter. Frelick connects with the same sort of oomph as Whit Merrifield and Steven Kwan. In fact, Kwan isn’t a bad comp – they’re both 5’9’’ left-handed hitting center fielders who fit better defensively in a corner. Frelick has a better chance to stick in center while at the plate, Kwan has superior feel for contact. The end result might wind up in the same neighborhood – a no-doubt Major League starter who nonetheless fits awkwardly within the current roster-design meta.
Cade Horton, 21, SP, CHC (A+)
43 IP, 12.56 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.19 ERA
Horton hype season is in full swing. One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects per list-makers, Horton features a typical repertoire with mid-90s heat, multiple breaking balls, and a usable platoon changeup. The Cubs org is well-regarded when it comes to pitch design, a feature Horton could exploit as he moves up the ladder. He has enough feel for command to move quickly once the kid gloves are off. Presently, said gloves are on due to recovery from UCL replacement. He usually takes a week or more between starts of 15 to 20 batters. His last two outings have been among his shakiest of the season.
Three More
Coby Mayo, BAL (21): One of the nice things about Triple-A is access to minor league exit velocities. Mayo may not be hitting well through his first 36 plate appearances in Norfolk, but he has produced encouraging EVs – 90.6-mph average and 111.8-mph max. He’s currently batting .219/.278/.375 with a 36.1 percent strikeout rate.
Colt Keith, DET (21): Another recent promotee to Triple-A, Keith is hitting a modest .274/.347/.403 in 72 plate appearances. His EVs – 88.5-mph average and 108.9-mph max – are in line with figures from last season. I was hoping to see some obvious growth in this respect. His defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. We’ll see if the coming weeks bring harder contact.
Evan Carter, TEX (20): Despite success in Double-A, Carter has yet to receive a promotion. He’s batting .298/.415/.462 in 316 plate appearances. These stats match the scouting report. He has a superb eye and a solid feel for contact. The quality of that contact is…fine. It’s fine. Really. Given his current prospect pedigree, I’d really like to see better than “fine.”
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!
Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.
Big Hype Prospects: Crews, Skenes, Amador, Hampton, Mauricio
Nobody runs a stronger Top 100 prospects list than Baseball America. Today, we’ll look at some key updates to their mid-season list that have yet to be reflected by other public outlets. We’ll also check in on recent draftees.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Dylan Crews, 21, OF, WSH (CLG)
258 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .426/.567/.713
Crews leads the 2023 draft class, ranking fourth overall among the Top 100 prospects in the game. He’s basically tied with future teammate James Wood. The Nationals have the foundation of a potent outfield in the near future.
If there’s a knock on Crews, it’s a possible weakness to pro-caliber breaking balls. Perhaps the only challenge left to him before his Major League debut is coping with pitchers who can precisely command breaking stuff. Otherwise, he’s a premium all-fields power hitter who can stick in center field. Given the potency of his bat, he’s still valuable as a corner outfielder.
Paul Skenes, 21, SP, PIT (CLG)
122.2 IP, 15.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.69 ERA
Skenes outclassed college hitters in a batter-friendly run environment. He’s considered more or less Major League ready and could debut whenever Pittsburgh is ready for him. Between his heavy college workload and violent delivery, don’t expect that to happen this year. The recent trend is to shut down heavy workload college pitchers in their draft year. Skenes’ fastball is a weapon, regularly hitting triple-digit velocity with arm-side run and carry. He’s deadly working up-and-in to right-handed hitters. Southpaws won’t enjoy facing him either. He throws multiple breaking balls and features a quality changeup – a pitch that was all but unnecessary to his college dominance.
Adael Amador, SS, 20, COL (A+)
259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514
A personal miss of mine, Amador wasn’t much to look at last year despite strong results. We often see players of this ilk thrive in the low minors only to fade as they climb the ladder. It’s a discipline over physical skills profile, though the physical side of his game has improved enough to project a future starting role. Previously, I viewed him as a future oft-used utility guy based on his public measurables. My scouting contacts backed up that assessment with their visual impressions. Amador still primarily makes pulled, ground ball contact. He’ll need to develop more lift in order to make the most of his skills.
Chase Hampton, 21, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 74.2 IP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.13 ERA
An afterthought on Yankees lists entering this season, Hampton is sprinting through the minors. He’s added velocity to a five-pitch repertoire of effective offerings. He’s passed Will Warren within the system. Pitchers with at least four average pitches and 50-grade command tend to have long careers (health allowing). The Yankees haven’t shown the best feel for finishing their pitching prospects in recent years – perhaps inspiring their willingness to deal J.P. Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline last season. Hampton is seemingly a cut above.
Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AAA)
358 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .299/.344/.512
Whether or not you play fantasy baseball, there’s something attractive about guys who mash dingers and raid forts. Mauricio produces wild exit velocities – 92.0 average and 115.8 max. That’s all the more impressive when we consider his Baez-ian discipline. Like early-career Baez, his ability to square pitches out of the zone helps him to recover for objectively abysmal discipline. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t flash Baez’s superlative defensive feats. Had the Mets played as expected, Mauricio is probably traded in the upcoming weeks. As it stands, he should receive an audition at second base before long.
Three More
Ethan Salas, SDP (17): Salas, whom we profiled in more depth last week, jumped from the mid-50s to 18th on the BA Top 100. A precocious defender, the rapid development of his bat has caught even his most ardent supporters by surprise. Few players generate half this much excitement in their age 16 season. How he handles his growing fame will prove instructive.
Sal Frelick, MIL (23): While I’ve soured on Frelick, BA is enthused with a 32nd ranking. Their short blurb references the reason why I’m concerned – a lack of authoritative contact. His 85.2 average and 106.5 max exit velocities are well below average in a year when most guys have artificially inflated Triple-A EVs. The discipline remains pristine.
Wyatt Langford, TEX (22): The other draftee who was widely considered a first-overall caliber prospect, Langford might manage to outhit Crews. However, he’s miles behind defensively despite comparable physical ability. FanGraphs offers a fun comp – Pat Burrell with a jetpack.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo
We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500
When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444
Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453
Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.
Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.
Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA
Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603
With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.
Three More
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.
River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.
Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!
Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.
Big Hype Prospects: Westburg, Matos, Crawford, Whisenhunt, Anthony
The Orioles are finally calling up one of their top hitting prospects, and it isn’t the one I expected to get the first call. Jordan Westburg will make his debut later today. I expected Colton Cowser to win the race to the Majors. With Cedric Mullins recently returning, Cowser is left to await another injury or Aaron Hicks’ inevitable collapse (good outcomes, deeply terrible EVs).
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jordan Westburg, 24, 2B/3B/SS, BAL (AAA)
301 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .295/.372/.567
There’s a disconnect between public perceptions of Westburg and scouting reports. The bat will play, though Westburg’s penchant to swing-and-miss could result in long slumps as reports identify exploitable weaknesses. His minor league exit velocities would rate as above average in the Majors. Additionally, Westburg seemingly mixes discipline and targeted aggression in a way that could help keep his strikeouts under control – it has thus far in the minors.
The trouble is his defense. He’s trained all over the infield. Some think he’ll eventually land in left field. We see these sorts of bat-first players all over the league. His flexibility enables the club to view him as a tenth man akin to Chris Taylor (to be clear, Taylor is a far superior fielder). When approaching roster construction, Westburg can be slotted into whatever spot needs filling or else rotate with the regulars to keep everyone fresh.
Luis Matos, 21, OF, SFG (MLB)
45 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .282/.378/.385
On the back of a mediocre AFL performance, it wasn’t guaranteed the Giants were going to roster Matos this year. He would have likely gone early in the Rule 5 draft if they hadn’t. Matos immediately rewarded San Francisco’s decision to protect him. Though discipline has long been a weakness, he has more walks than strikeouts through 45 plate appearances after hitting .398/.435/.685 in 116 Triple-A plate appearances. The 21-year-old has looked like a new hitter this year.
There are still worrying details under the surface. His 89.5-mph average and 107.5-mph max exit velocities suggest middling power. Given his age, he could easily grow into more power – several evaluators believe this will happen. It’s my expectation Matos will soon enter a slump due to poor quality of contact. However, I’m optimistic about the long-range picture. In addition to burgeoning hitting skills, Matos is a plus defensive center fielder.
Justin Crawford, 19, OF, PHI (A)
202 PA, 0 HR, 32 SB, .346/.395/.456
I was surprised to recently discover Crawford had crept onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list. That’s not meant as a knock against Crawford. There happens to be a large number of high-quality prospects around the league. Crawford is more projection than actuality at this stage of his development.
The 17th pick of the 2022 draft, Crawford was seen as the sort of toolsy, incomplete prospect the Phillies have historically loved – and struggled to develop. He’s performing decently in Low-A where his first-rate speed is on display. A .423 BABIP has allowed him to get away with too many swinging strikes for his current low-power profile. He’s expected to age into roughly average pop, so this problem could go away in a couple ways. Comparisons to his father, Carl Crawford, come naturally as they share quite a few traits. He’s reportedly comfortable making adjustments to his hitting mechanics which further increases the volatility of his prospectdom.
Carson Whisenhunt, 22, SP, SFG (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 49.2 IP, 12.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.90 ERA
Whisenhunt would rank higher among evaluators if not for off-field issues. As it is, he’s still in consideration for the back-end of Top 100 lists. The simplest issue to comment on publicly is his failed PED test in college. You’ll notice, it’s rare for college players to be caught for PEDs, and it’s not because they’re squeaky clean. For his part, Whisenhunt blames a tainted supplement. The skinny southpaw leads with a double-plus changeup and is only just reaching a level where hitters will have some capacity to cope with the pitch. His changeup is such that he won’t truly be tested until he reaches the Majors. The profile and build are reminiscent of Cole Hamels.
Roman Anthony, 19, OF, BOS (A+)
(A/A+) 251 PA, 5 HR, 12 SB, .236/.379/.382
Anyone statistically minded is going to like Anthony. A 19-year-old performing well in High-A is exciting stuff, particularly when said 19-year-old has a 171 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. He was considerably more ordinary in Low-A, posting a 110 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances. A sweet-swinging lefty slugger, Anthony has considerable development ahead of him if he’s to continue this speedy race toward the Majors. The P-word gets thrown around. Against better competition, Anthony will find himself behind in the count all too often. Passivity isn’t a death knell. We saw Gunnar Henderson defeat it entering last season and again about a month ago. It’s a trait which has a way of echoing. But for the passivity, Anthony has all the traits of a starting corner outfielder.
FanGraphs gives Anthony a four-paragraph writeup that says more than I can in this space.
Three More
Edouard Julien, MIN (24): The star of the 2022 AFL, Julien is on the verge of losing his prospect “eligibility.” He’s batting .252/.336/.439 through 123 plate appearances. A 34.1 percent strikeout rate has held him back. He also has a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate – nearly double that of his Triple-A performance. Defensively limited, Julien appears in need of an adjustment or two. He has the tools to pull it off.
Jacob Misiorowski, MIL (21): It’s good to be unique as a pitcher. Misiorowski certainly checks the “unique” box. The 6’7’’ right-hander has the sort of funky arm action that makes it hard to identify balls and strikes. Misiorowski lacks a changeup, but we’ve seen plenty of starters succeed without one in recent years, especially those who can live up in the zone with hard heat. He currently has poor command.
Quinn Priester, PIT (22): Priester has been on the radar for a while, bouncing in and out of the Top 100 prospects. He’s a ground ball pitcher who manages around a strikeout per inning while limiting walks and piling up ground balls. Since his fastball isn’t particularly effective, he should be viewed as a potential back-of-the-rotation guy – the type who keeps his team in the game.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford
The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA
Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.
Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380
Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA
From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.
Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA
Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.
Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410
The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.
Three More
Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.
Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.
Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!
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Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador
Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.
To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734
Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.
There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.
Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443
Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.
Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA
Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).
A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387
The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.
Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510
Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.
Three More
Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.
Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.
Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.