This week on Big Hype Prospects… baseball is happening, and we are eagerly awaiting the results.

Five BHPs In The News

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (—)
DNP

Jones is on pace to make his minor league debut this spring. The second overall pick of the 2022 draft, Jones missed the season with a shoulder injury sustained during batting practice. He’s widely considered a Top 25 prospect despite never appearing in a professional game. Like his father Andruw, Jones profiles as a speedy, defensively able center fielder who might grow into serious power within a few years. Andruw Jones debuted as a 19-year-old in 1996 and posted a 31-homer, 27-steal campaign as a 21-year-old in 1998. The younger Jones is unlikely to reach the Majors this year, especially in a system with such an impressive collection of young outfielders. However, he has the traits to explode through the lower levels this season.

Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AA)
541 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .259/.296/.472

Mauricio profiles as a volatile prospect, one whose days in the Mets system might be coming to an end. His defensive ability at shortstop is fringy, but it’s the only position at which he has extensive experience. The Mets have opted to keep him at shortstop where he’s blocked long-term by Francisco Lindor. There’s no clearer signal of their intent to trade him (in this writer’s opinion).

As a hitter, Mauricio lacks discipline and breaking ball recognition. Despite a 26/20 campaign, there’s reason to believe his apparent power and speed will play down. For one, he’s not actually fast. He was caught 11 times last season and is 39-for-66 (59%) for his career. Although his max exit velocity would rank among the Top 50 hitters, his unrestrained approach hints at a high bust rate. Mauricio is still a valuable prospect, but he’s not the sort of blue-chip asset teams want for their best trade assets.

Mark Vientos, 23, 1B/3B/DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Vientos made modest strides with his plate discipline in the last year. He profiles as a bat-first prospect who is ultimately destined for first base or designated hitter duties. It’s not yet clear if he has enough bat to sustain regular work at those positions. Right-handed hitting first basemen tend to have a high bar to clear. Often, they’ll eventually matriculate, but it can sometimes require a few stops along the way. The Mets’ own Darin Ruf followed this path. C.J. Cron serves as a happier example of this profile. He finally found lasting success with the Rays in his age 28 season after four years of treading water in Los Angeles. Due to his defensive limitations, Vientos has a narrow window to stake any claim to third base reps ahead of Eduardo Escobar or Brett Baty. Pete Alonso is only signed through 2024, and the designated hitter mix led by Daniel Vogelbach isn’t exactly the Mets’ strong suit.

Noah Song, 25, SP, PHI (—)
DNP

They don’t come more mysterious than Song. Once a touted draft prospect who fell due to a military commitment, the Phillies selected Song from the Red Sox in the latest Rule 5 draft. It’s the second time Dave Dombrowski has selected him in a draft. Now cleared for baseball duty, the Phillies will have the challenging task of deciding if he can serve as their eighth reliever. When we last saw him in 2019, Song featured a plus fastball, slider, and curve along with a developing changeup. We don’t know how those pitches grade out today, and I’ve yet to observe him this spring. Assuming the fastball and at least one breaking ball are viable, it’s possible they could hide Song in the bullpen, send him to the minors to stretch out in 2024, then reassess matters from there.

The first step in that chain, carrying Song on the active roster, is a doozy. The Phillies are coming off an improbable NL Championship in which they barely scraped their way into the postseason. All signs point to another uphill battle in 2023. Every roster spot counts. Using one on Song rather than a “proven” option like Bailey Falter could be the difference.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

With Lance McCullers set to miss the start of the season, Brown is expected to make the Astros rotation. We can intuit they’ll carefully manage his workload. In fact, they were already doing so last season. At Triple-A, he made 14 starts with nine relief appearances. The Astros juggled the workloads of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy in much the same way last season, albeit less obviously. Brown more than held his own in 20.1 Major League innings. He averaged nearly 97-mph with his heater while recording 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, a 68 percent ground ball rate, and a 0.89 ERA. In the minors, he typically posted just north of a 50 percent ground ball rate. He’s a stuff-over-command starter who might fit best in short bursts.

Three More

Forrest Whitley, HOU (25): One of the options for the fifth starter slot, Whitley managed 40 innings in affiliated ball last season for the first time since 2019. He’s yet to broach 100 innings in a season, making a reliever role likelier if only for workload management purposes. Whitley struggled in his return to Triple-A. He once possessed five above average offerings and an ace-like ceiling.

Ethan Small, MIL (26): Small is a large left-handed changeup specialist with shaky command. Used as a starter throughout his four-season minor league career, the Brewers have now committed to preparing him as a reliever. This is his best opportunity to contribute in the short term. Even with Aaron Ashby sidelined, the Brewers have six quality starting pitchers on the big league staff.

Drew Gilbert, HOU (22): A 2022 first-rounder, the left-handed Gilbert dislocated his right elbow in a wall collision. He’s expected to be full health to start the season. A capable center fielder with discipline, contact skills, and non-trivial pop, Gilbert’s performance this season could cement a spot on Top 100 prospect lists. This is also a profile that often falls into a fifth-outfielder bucket. Consistent hard contact could serve as a forward indicator of his career trajectory.

Rejoice! The offseason is officially behind us. Pitchers and catchers who are involved in the World Baseball Classic report today. The rest report on either 2/15 or 2/16. Fresh prospect news should start to trickle in soon. The WBC will give us additional opportunities to see prospects in competitive action. Not only do some top prospects participate in the contest, the outflow of players to international games means there are more opportunities for game reps in big league camps.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B/OF, STL (AA)
(AA) 536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

One of the most dynamic prospects in the league with a penchant for barreling the ball, Walker is in the process of converting to outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. As we covered recently, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an opening in the outfield either. Walker also doesn’t have a spot on the 40-man roster yet, further complicating his path to the Majors. While fans are undoubtedly clamoring to see him early this season, a successful stint at Triple-A will almost certainly be required to force the issue.

If there’s any caveat about Walker, and this is nitpicking, it’s an elevated ground ball rate. Since he has special power, Walker could very well tap into an elite HR/FB rate like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to overcome a few extra bouncers. He’s expected to post above average BABIPs on account of the angle and quality of his contact.

Miguel Vargas, 23, 2B/3B, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Another third baseman by trade set to shift positions, the Dodgers have announced Vargas will man the keystone. The less fleet-footed Max Muncy will play third base. This is a conversion that usually works out for reasonably athletic young players like Vargas. The athletic requirements for the two positions are similar. Third basemen generally need more arm strength. Second basemen should have sharper footwork. Vargas projects as a roughly league average third baseman, and that likely holds true at second base too.

An evaluator I consulted doesn’t believe Vargas is a future star, though he does appear to be a high-probability core performer. While they’re not particularly comparable, these are the same sorts of comments I received about Jake Cronenworth prior to his debut in San Diego. There are some feel-based aspects to Vargas’ game that could allow him to exceed his physical limitations.

DL Hall, 24, SP, BAL (MLB)
(AAA) 76.2 IP, 14.67 K/9, 5.75 BB/9, 4.70 ERA

Hall posted the largest workload of his professional career last season. He tossed 98 innings in total across four levels including a brief debut in the Orioles bullpen. He’ll be offered an opportunity to compete for one of two open rotation slots in Baltimore. Hall’s stuff is filthy, and he works deep counts seeking strikeouts. He’s also prone to walks. His errant command shouldn’t be viewed as a permanent characteristic just yet. Like many pitching prospects, Hall has struggled with injuries throughout his ascent. Further setbacks could force a bullpen role – as we’ve seen happen with A.J. Puk. Conversely, a healthy stint might be the ticket for unlocking just enough command to carry his superb stuff as a short-burst starter. Notably, Hall’s stuff did not play up out of the bullpen.

Sal Frelick, 22, OF, MIL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 562 PA, 11 HR, 24 SB, .331/.403/.480

The Brewers could graduate a fresh outfield of the future this season. Roster realities, an uphill battle in the NL Central, and pricey left fielder Christian Yelich will complicate the juggling act ahead for General Manager Matt Arnold. None of Frelick, Joey Wiemer, or Jackson Chourio are yet on the 40-man roster.

Frelick is a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average discipline, speed, and feel for quality contact. His power rates as below average, though it remains possible he’ll make adjustments to unlock decent pop. Presently, there are doubts Frelick will stick in center field. He’s sufficiently athletic but has iffy instincts. Some players overcome this shortcoming. Others do not. His path forward as a left fielder is more fraught – both due to the presence of Yelich and his lack of impactful power.

Joey Wiemer, 24, OF, MIL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 548 PA, 21 HR, 31 SB, .256/.336/.465

Wiemer stands out on a field. Not only is he a large man, he can fly around the diamond. The profile looks like a big-man version of Tyler O’Neill. He’s expected to be the sort of volatile player who will at times carry a team and at others slog through deep slumps. Presently, his game power is inconsistent. He appeared to make an adjustment late last season to a more balanced contact profile. That could also be a small sample artifact. Things to keep an eye upon in Triple-A and when he debuts include his line drive rate, pulled contact, and infield fly rate.

Three More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): It’s not yet confirmed if Chourio received an invitation to big league Spring Training. On the shortlist for number one prospect in baseball, I don’t believe I’ve seen this level of hype since the days of Mike Trout. He’s still learning center field where he’s physically capable but inexperienced. His bat is expected to play at any position. Most encouragingly, he made a number of key in-season adjustments last year – a trait which bodes well for his further development.

JJ Bleday, OAK (25): Bleday, whose least appealing attributes were covered last week, was recently acquired by the Athletics. Oakland is less inclined to feign competitiveness than Miami, meaning Bleday should have a fair chance for regular reps. However, the A’s have quite a few outfielders at present including Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Esteury Ruiz, Cristian Pache, and Conner Capel among others. Bleday might need to await the nearly inevitable trades of Laureano and Brown.

Ezequiel Tovar, COL (21): Tovar recently spoke to the media about his pursuit of an Opening Day role with the Rockies. Per his comments, he might parlay a strong Spring Training into an active roster spot. Given his youthful age, Colorado could be tempted to seize any excuse to manipulate his service time. A late April debut would secure control over his age 27 season. Tovar is not yet a finished product as a hitter, though his defense is considered excellent.

Late January is a sluggish period in the baseball transactions calendar. As has occurred in other slow weeks this offseason, we’ll be generous with our definitions of “Big Hype” and “Prospects” in order to cover interesting players recently in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, Mets (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 420 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .315/.410/.533

Baty’s future role with the Mets has shifted a few times this offseason. When it appeared the club was set to sign Carlos Correa, Baty shifted from a potential cost-controlled building block to trade bait. The division-rival Marlins even reportedly explored a trade for Baty involving either Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera. With Correa crossed off the acquisition list, Baty is back in the picture for third base reps. From a roster management perspective, an Opening Day role will likely require either a monstrous Spring Training or an injury to incumbent third baseman Eduardo Escobar. While Baty had an excellent season in the minors, he only recorded 26 plate appearances in Triple-A. He then skipped to the Majors where his issues with ground-ball contact were on display in 42 plate appearances. Encouragingly, he posted above-average exit velocities. He profiles as a high-floor future Major League regular, though he’ll need to hit more balls in the air to access a star-caliber ceiling.

Although Baty is currently a below-average defender, he has the raw tools to improve to league average with sufficient effort. For the sake of comparison, Baty’s range, throwing skills, and athleticism are superior to those of Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, White Sox (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 526 PA, 23 HR, 3 SB, .314/.371/.524

Colas had an encouraging stateside debut, blitzing through High- and Double-A before finishing with a power show over 33 plate appearances at Triple-A. Despite hitting .387/.424/.645 in that brief taste of Triple-A, Colas also recorded a 36.4 percent strikeout rate and 21.6 percent swinging-strike rate. The White Sox have done little to resolve an opening in right field, leaving the position an open battle between Gavin Sheets, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, and others. Colas is expected to have a legitimate opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. The left-handed slugger has a couple traits in common with Baty – namely, he produces high exit velocities with too many ground balls. There are also questions about his plate discipline, breaking ball recognition, and feel for contact. Overall, Colas has a volatile profile – the sort one could picture winning Player of the Week honors and experiencing an 0-for-30 slump in the same season.

Drew Waters, 24, OF, Royals (MLB)
(MLB) 109 PA, 5 HR, .240/.324/.479

A former top prospect in the Braves system who lost his luster in recent seasons, Waters is another volatile outfielder with a wide range of plausible outcomes. The Royals found 109 plate appearances for him last season. He’s primed to start in 2023 following the trade of Michael A. Taylor. Since joining the Royals in the middle of 2022, Waters has posted uncharacteristically high walk rates – possibly an important sign of improvement. Long considered an undisciplined hitter, he’s always had issues with low walk and high strikeout rates. It’s worth noting his swinging-strike rate improved along with the improved walk rate. Waters can produce an above-average maximum exit velocity, but his 84.1-mph average exit velocity was among the league’s worst. All told, there are a lot of moving parts to Waters’ profile. The 2023 campaign should prove instructive for his future role.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS/2B, Braves (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

Like teammate Michael Harris, Grissom skipped Triple-A last season and still managed to perform remarkably well. He’s an effective Spring Training away from an Opening Day role in the Braves’ middle infield. While he’s no longer a rookie, there’s no question he’s still a developing young player. Per reports, infield coach Ron Washington is encouraged by his development as a shortstop this offseason. That’s a necessary improvement, as defensive metrics indicate he struggled as a second baseman last season. Presently, the Braves’ shortstop options amount to Grissom, Orlando Arcia, Ehire Adrianza, and Hoy Park. It’s possible opposing scouts figured out how to exploit Grissom at the plate late last season. His final 53 plate appearances amounted to a .174/.264/.196 triple-slash. He also struck out in all three postseason plate appearances.

Darell Hernaiz, 21, SS, Athletics (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 452 PA, 12 HR, 32 SB, .273/.341/.438

The Athletics’ return in yesterday’s Cole Irvin trade with the Orioles, Hernaiz was considered by both clubs to be more valuable than Irvin despite the pitcher’s success in the Majors. Hernaiz’s path to a regular role in Baltimore was narrow and unlikely to be achieved. He’s praised for his work ethic and baseball acumen, leading most scouts to consider him a future utilityman as a floor. He could stand to improve his plate discipline, though it isn’t a fatal flaw like with many aggressive, young hitters. He has above-average feel for contact and has shown unexpected growth in the power department. He’s expected to remain a contact-over-power hitter. As a defender, he’s sure-handed but might lose the footspeed necessary to remain at shortstop – especially in a post-shifts era.

In my opinion, this was an intelligent move by both clubs. The Athletics landed an up-and-coming prospect who would have remained overshadowed had he stuck in the Orioles’ farm system.

Three More

Connor Norby, Orioles (22 years old): For most clubs, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg would serve as an enviable middle infield prospect duo with Jackson Holliday offering a down-the-road reinforcement. Baltimore has additional depth, rendering Hernaiz a practically unusable luxury. Norby is Major League adjacent and hit 29 home runs across three levels last season. I get vague Chase Utley vibes from him – meaning his production comfortably exceeds his appearance. After a few looks, you’ll come to expect clutch hits in big spots.

Joey Ortiz, Orioles (24): Ortiz is also Major League adjacent. A gritty gamer, Ortiz seems destined to fill an oft-used utility role in the Orioles’ loaded infield. The club is enamored with Ortiz and may struggle to find another team that likes him as much as them, even though he’d project as a starter in most systems. His presence could help them feel comfortable dealing Westburg if and when a blockbuster opportunity emerges.

Jose Salas, Twins (19): Acquired as ballast in the Luis Arraez trade, Salas is considered a high-probability future big leaguer. As with most developing teenagers, there’s a wide degree of plausible outcomes ranging from emergency bench depth to future front-line starter. A switch-hitter, there are still exploitable holes in his swing from both sides of the plate. It’s also unclear how his power will develop.