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East Notes: Mets, Yankees, Orioles

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Jon Heyman has left his post at CBS Sports, Awful Announcing’s Joe Lucia writes, noting that Heyman’s gig at MLB Network will not be affected. He also contributes to WFAN in New York. Heyman, who has broken news about innumerable MLB trades and signings, has been one of MLBTR’s most-cited reporters in the past several years, and his tweets and columns have been invaluable to us. We at MLBTR wish him the best of luck in whatever endeavors await him. Here are a couple quick notes from the East divisions.

  • The Yankees and Mets should consider a trade in which the Mets get Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner, while the Yankees get Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Alejandro De Aza, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. It would be highly unusual for the Mets to deal De Aza just after signing him, and under MLB rules, he would have to provide his consent. Beyond that, it’s a proposal that’s at least interesting — the Mets could pair Miller with Jeurys Familia to strengthen their bullpen, and Gardner would provide a good, versatile outfield option. Wheeler, meanwhile, is highly talented but perhaps somewhat expendable, given that he’ll be out until June while recovery from Tommy John surgery and is only controllable for four more seasons, and that the Mets are loaded with young pitching. The Yankees would be taking on a fair amount of risk in trading two proven players for two pitchers who missed most or all of the 2015 season. Still, Wheeler and Montero would give the Yankees’ pitching staff an infusion of youth and upside. Of course, as Harper notes, the Mets might fear the possibility of Wheeler blossoming into an ace on the other side of town.
  • The Orioles can’t afford to wait much longer for Chris Davis as they attempt to set their roster for 2016, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes. “Everybody knows” that the Orioles would still give Davis the $150MM deal they initially offered, even though they technically rescinded it. In the meantime, though, it’s unlikely the Orioles would extend another large offer to a different free agent until they know whether Davis is coming back. In the meantime, the Orioles have acquired Mark Trumbo partially as a way of guarding themselves against the possibility Davis signs elsewhere.

Cafardo On Free Agency, Miller, Melancon, Parra

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Here are a few highlights from the latest column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • Cafardo begins with a discussion of why many of the top available hitters on the free agent market haven’t signed yet (a question we also discussed a bit today). Cafardo quotes Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who argues that part of the problem might be a reluctance to spend big given the spotty history of “mega-deals” for hitters. Cafardo notes, however, that there are a number of teams with holes, and that the likes of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes Chris Davis and Alex Gordon are ultimately likely to get their “mega-deals” from someone.
  • The Yankees have been asking for a top young starter in return for Andrew Miller. Teams haven’t been willing to meet that price, so it seems likely the Yankees will keep him. (Yankees exec Brian Cashman has already said he intends to keep Miller.)
  • Another top reliever who might be staying put is Mark Melancon, Cafardo writes. The Pirates have made Melancon (who will be paid handsomely in his last year before free agency eligibility) available, but thus far he’s still with the Bucs.
  • From a statistical perspective, Gerardo Parra’s defense has taken enormous steps backward in the past two years — UZR, for example, had him at +31.1 runs in 2013 and -18.1 runs last season, while Defensive Runs Saved had him dropping from 41 runs to -10 over that period. But scouts aren’t convinced those numbers represent a real change in his abilities, Cafardo writes. “He’s still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game,” says an AL scout. “He takes very good routes to balls, and as a pitcher or manager, you feel comfortable with him out there.” The Rockies and Royals seem like possibilities for Parra.

Checking In On Last Year’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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On January 2 of last year, MLBTR’s Zach Links looked at the lowest-scoring offenses in the 2014 season and what they had done that winter to improve. In 2015, the five lowest-scoring teams in baseball were the Braves (573 runs), Marlins (613), White Sox (622), Phillies (626) and Reds (640). What’s perhaps most striking about that list in comparison to the five teams Zach profiled (the Padres, Braves, Reds, Rays and Cubs) is that there are more teams than usual simply not acting like improving for the upcoming season is a top priority. The Braves and Phillies headed into the 2015-16 offseason already in the midst of obvious rebuilds; the Reds, having traded Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman this winter, now appear to be close to that status. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to exist in a state of flux. Only the White Sox have made decisive moves to improve their run-scoring.

It should, perhaps, be noted that many of the top hitters in this winter’s free agent class remain on the market, with Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Alex Gordon yet to find new teams. A team looking to upgrade its offense will have more opportunities to do so this month. But with a few exceptions (like the Cardinals, who actually finished 24th in the Majors and 11th in the NL in runs scored with 647 despite winning more regular-season games than any other team), it looks like many of the teams most likely to sign one of those players are teams whose offenses were already good.

With that in mind, though, there are plenty of interesting things even rebuilding teams can do with their offenses, including acquiring prospects and clearing space for young players. So let’s look in on what 2015’s lowest-scoring teams have done this offseason.

  • Braves – Atlanta re-signed A.J. Pierzynski and signed Tyler Flowers, giving them a pair of veteran backstops to compensate for the departure of former top prospect Christian Bethancourt, who they shipped to San Diego. They also made a couple small signings of veterans Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonifacio to shore up a shaky infield and bench, and they added a couple hitters via minor league free agency, Nate Freiman and Ryan Lavarnway (actually a re-signing), who could provide a bit of upside. Replacing Andrelton Simmons with Erick Aybar obviously will hurt defensively, but might not make much difference on offense. The Braves’ key move to help their hitting, though, was their trade of Shelby Miller to Arizona for a package that included Ender Inciarte (an already-good outfielder who will likely replace the departed Cameron Maybin if he doesn’t head elsewhere in another trade) and 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson. If Swanson develops, he could have a profound effect on the Braves’ future offensively.
  • Marlins – Miami re-signed Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Mathis, and has otherwise had a quiet offseason in which it will return many of the hitters it featured last year. That might not be all bad, of course — Giancarlo Stanton only played in 74 games in 2015, and a full season from him would be a huge help. The Marlins’ other two young outfielders, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, were much better in the second half of 2015 in the first, and they (along with Stanton and Dee Gordon) could help anchor a Marlins offense that looks likely to score more runs than it did last year.
  • White Sox – The White Sox are, in some ways, this offseason’s equivalent of the 2014-15 Padres — the team taking the most urgent action to address an offense that struggled the previous season. Unlike the Padres, whose series of trades for a bunch of square pegs last winter had a deleterious effect on the franchise, the White Sox’ moves seem to have been well chosen. Chicago’s performances at both second base and third base were among the worst in baseball in 2015, and their deals for Brett Lawrie and especially Frazier were decisive moves to strengthen both positions. The additions of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro perhaps weren’t as dramatic or as likely to be effective, but those players will provide help at another position at which the White Sox struggled. The team has shown at least some interest in many of the top free agent bats available this offseason, and it could also still potentially use a shortstop.
  • Phillies – Philadelphia’s main moves this offseason (such as their trade of Ken Giles for a package that included Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel, and their deals for rotation-filling pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson) have mostly been oriented around pitching, but they’ve made a few small moves that could help their offense as well. Outfielder Tyler Goeddel, selected from the Rays with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, could potentially provide a bit of help. Waiver claim Peter Bourjos should figure in their outfield plans as well, although he’s not likely to hit much.
  • Reds – Cincinnati hasn’t made any big-league signings this offseason, and the defining moves of their winter have been their trades of Frazier and Chapman, which have returned two grab bags of young players. Jose Peraza, the key to the Frazier deal, could collect plenty of at-bats for the Reds in 2016, particularly if the team is ever able to deal Brandon Phillips, but Peraza is a light hitter who figures to make most of his offensive impact with his speed. Scott Schebler, a lefty-hitting outfielder acquired in that same deal, could help somewhat, although his upside appears to be limited. The prospect from the Chapman trade most likely to help the Reds’ offense in 2016 is third baseman Eric Jagielo, although he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level and might not reach Cincinnati until late in the season. In the Rule 5 Draft, the Reds grabbed Jake Cave, another lefty-hitting outfielder; he did not hit well at Double-A last year and doesn’t seem like a great bet to add much offense, at least not right away. The Reds don’t look to have improved their offense enough to compensate for Frazier’s departure. They are, however, in an earlier stage of rebuilding or re-tooling than the Braves or Phillies are (or perhaps they’ve just approached it somewhat less aggressively). They should also benefit next season from better health — having Devin Mesoraco behind the dish could make a big difference.

AL Notes: Hall Of Fame, Infante, Rays

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Baseball writers should stop acting as “moral gatekeepers” for the Hall Of Fame, an indignant Buster Olney of ESPN writes (Insider-only). Specifically, he says, they should stop invoking the character clause, and the many cases of writers switching their votes on players with PED histories suggests that they aren’t applying the character clause consistently anyway. Also, he says, there’s no way to truly know who in the PED era actually used (and to what extent) and who didn’t, and writers shouldn’t act as arbiters of history, keeping top players out of the Hall while playing the role of “traffic cops of history.” Most flagrant is the case of Astros slugger Jeff Bagwell, who some commentators have dismissed due to PED concerns despite a total lack of evidence that he actually used them. Here are more quick notes on the American League.

  • Royals infielder Omar Infante had surgery on his elbow in November, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. Infante is expected to be healthy for Spring Training. The Royals think the surgery will help Infante with the shoulder troubles that bothered him last season, in which he played in 124 games and hit a horrific .220/.234/.318. (Infante also had back and oblique issues, and suffered a groin strain.) As Morosi notes, Infante will likely get the opportunity to win the Royals’ second-base job again next season.
  • The Rays incurred relatively heavy losses in the Rule 5 Draft in 2015, Marc Topkin writes for Baseball America. The Phillies took outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first overall pick, marking the second consectuive year the top player selected in the Rule 5 came from the Rays organization. (The Diamondbacks took catcher Oscar Hernandez with the first pick in 2014.) And the Rays lost another outfielder, Joey Rickard, with the eighth pick. The Rays did protect five players, including top prospect Blake Snell, from the draft. “Their ceilings in our mind weren’t as high as the five guys we protected and that’s what it comes down to,” Rays farm director Mitch Lukevics says of Goeddel and Rickard. “We have 40 spots, and someone is 41, someone is 42, someone is 43.”

Exploring January Free Agent Signings

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The month of January isn’t typically a big month for free agent signings, but this year, it might almost have to be. An uncharacteristic number of big-name free agents are still available, including Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Wei-Yin Chen, Dexter Fowler, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Howie Kendrick, among others, remain available. By this point in the year, key free agents have usually already signed, but this winter, many teams will be doing their offseason shopping well after Christmas.

Too see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last five seasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains a bit of drama, and top free agents do sometimes wait to sign. None of the last five offseasons have seen the kind of free agent movement that seems likely in the coming weeks, however.

  • 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
  • 2014: This was the recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
  • 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
  • 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
  • 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.

An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Davis, Chen and Kennedy.

The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. The qualifying offer could end up having a significant effect on the markets of a few current free agents, like Kennedy.

Still, those two factors do not explain the logjam of free agents currently on the market. Most of them (Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, Desmond and so on) are not Boras clients. And many free agents who might have been most affected by the qualifying offer (Marco Estrada, Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) either already signed or accepted their QOs.

In any case, this year’s free agent market figures to be considerably busier in January (or even later) than it typically is. In a recent column, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explored reasons why the market has been so slow. Some usual big spenders, like the Yankees and Angels, have been relatively quiet on the free agent market. In addition, the trade market has perhaps been a factor — recent deals involving Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller and Ken Giles, for example, have shown that the trade market has had plenty of good talent available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd implied last month, too, the signing of one of the many numerous bats available via free agency could lead to a run on the rest. In the meantime, though, a number of stars still need homes, so expect plenty of activity in the coming month.

Quick Hits: Mets, Orioles, Indians

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If the Mets are to sustain the success they enjoyed in 2015 in future seasons, they’ll need to depend on their farm system to continue churning out talent, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. The Mets have added key players to their active roster in each of the past several years, including Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto last season. (They also used a number of prospects to help them acquire key big-league talent down the stretch in 2015, most notably Michael Fulmer in the Yoenis Cespedes trade.) They’ll continue to lean on a farm system that, after the graduations of a number of top pitching talents, is heavy on position players like Gavin Cecchini, Dilson Herrera and Brandon Nimmo. Here’s more from throughout the game.

  • The list of key position players who remain unsigned (Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Chris Davis) raises questions about whether any of them could sign for significantly less or for significantly fewer years than anticipated, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes. It remains unclear whether Davis and the Orioles could revisit their contract discussions — as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported last week, the O’s rescinded their $150MM offer to Davis, and while there could be more talks between the two sides, some within the organization might feel that they don’t need to offer so much again if other teams aren’t entering the bidding at $150MM or more.
  • The Indians ultimately signed Mike Napoli rather than free agent slugger Pedro Alvarez because Napoli is a right-handed hitter and because he improved their defense, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Napoli, a solid defensive first baseman, allowed the Indians to move Carlos Santana to DH. Alvarez, a huge defensive liability last year in Pittsburgh, might well have had to play DH himself.

Week In Review: 12/26/15 – 1/1/16

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As we say goodbye to 2015 here at MLBTR, here’s a look back at the past week.

Key Moves

Signings / Re-signings

Designated For Assignment

Key Minor League Signings

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Relievers, Pirates

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The acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith should improve the Red Sox in high-leverage situations, helping them win one-run games, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. Three of the four teams that had the best results in high-leverage situations last season were nine or more games above .500 in one-run games. The Red Sox already had two good late-inning relievers in Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, and there was perhaps some danger of there just not being enough high-leverage opportunities for Uehara, Tazawa, Kimbrel and Smith. But with Uehara vulnerable to aging and Tazawa vulnerable to injury, Kimbrel and Smith should provide the Red Sox with needed reinforcements. Here are more quick notes from around the league.

  • This offseason has been notable for the large contracts pitchers like Zack Greinke and David Price have received. Meanwhile, wages for relievers have remained flat, MacPherson writes. Greinke and Price’s deals are now the highest and second-highest ever in average annual value among contracts for pitchers, while the largest deal for relievers this offseason has been Darren O’Day’s four-year, $31MM deal. Admittedly, this offseason’s market hasn’t been heavy on top-flight closers, and new contracts for Ryan Madson (three years, $22MM) and Tony Sipp (three years, $18MM) do perhaps suggest some wage growth for talented middle relievers. Overall, though, as MacPherson points out, the market for elite relievers does not appear to have grown much in the many years since Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Cordero and B.J. Ryan signed long-term contracts in the $46MM-$50MM range.
  • The Pirates took a slight gamble with their signing of C/DH John Jaso, in that they signed him to play first base, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs writes. The Pirates themselves have seen the downside of gambling that a player can make an easy transition to first base — Pedro Alvarez’s defense there in 2015 was disastrous. As Sullivan points out, though, catchers from Buster Posey to Carlos Santana to Joe Mauer to Jason Phillips have generally done well in transitioning to first base. (I’d add Pickin’ Machine Scott Hatteberg to the mix as well.) Offensively, Sullivan writes, Jaso needs to be platooned, but he can be very effective against righties.

NL Notes: Phillies, Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals

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The Phillies only hired new GM Matt Klentak in late October, but he’s already been through a Winter Meetings and executed a big trade (that of Ken Giles to the Astros). In a Q+A, he tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he’s happy with the Giles deal (in which the Phillies received Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel), and says that as the Phillies continue their rebuild, they’re confident that they’ll be able to supplement their growing collection of young pitching with hitters acquired from outside the organization. “Hitters generally regard our park as a good place to play,” he says. “I know that our ownership is very committed — and will be in the future — to bringing in the right players and the top-caliber players to help us.” Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers still haven’t added any top-flight starting pitching to offset the loss of Zack Greinke, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says he is now happy with the organization’s depth, Bill Plunkett writes for Baseball America. “This offseason is different than last in that going into next year, we feel much better about our pitching depth that will be in (Triple-A) Oklahoma City,” says Friedman. “We have a number of guys that we like that will be there and that is a big difference for us next year compared to this year just in terms of the depth that we’ll have on hand.” Oklahoma City’s rotation will likely feature top prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon, along with 40-man members Jharel Cotton and Ross Stripling.
  • As FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted earlier this week, the Cardinals have spoken with the Rockies about a possible trade involving at least one Rockies outfielder. Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (and formerly of the Denver Post) writes that it’s probably more realistic that the Cardinals could pursue Corey Dickerson or Charlie Blackmon rather than Carlos Gonzalez, even though both Dickerson and Blackmon have negatives (for Dickerson, a weak arm; for Blackmon, poor numbers away from Coors Field). Hochman guesses that the Rockies’ end of a potential deal would likely begin with first baseman Matt Adams.

Top Ten Remaining Free Agents

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We’re now deep into the MLB offseason, and a number of the winter’s best free agents — David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke — are off the board. It has, however, been a quiet winter, at least in terms of the number of published reports, for many of the rest of the best players available. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently explored the reasons why, focusing on the qualifying offer, the lack of involvement in the market by some traditional big spenders (Yankees, Angels), the large number of rebuilding teams, and the robust trade market. Nonetheless, the free agent market is sure to pick up in the coming weeks. Here’s a look at the best ten free agents left, with their rankings from Tim Dierkes’ Top 50 free agents list from early November.

4. Justin Upton. Upton’s market has seemed quiet, with most recent news reports naming teams who aren’t likely to heavily pursue him (like the Angels, Cardinals and Giants). Upton’s agent met with the Orioles earlier this month (although their level of interest might be different now depending on their progress with Chris Davis and their deal with Hyun-soo Kim). The White Sox could perhaps enter the market for Upton.

5. Chris Davis. Davis has been most strongly connected with the Orioles, who made a significant offer earlier this month that they later rescinded (although without ruling out the possibility of future discussions). Beyond that, Davis’ market is unclear, not only from recent reports, but apparently also in the eyes of the Orioles themselves, who aren’t even sure who they’re bidding against.

6. Yoenis Cespedes. Like those of Upton and Davis, the rumor mill surrounding Cespedes has been relatively quiet. The Tigers reportedly have some interest, although perhaps only if Cespedes’ price drops. The Orioles have also been connected to Cespedes. The Mets have reportedly dropped out of the running.

9. Alex Gordon. The Royals have reportedly been told that there’s “no chance” they’ll re-sign Gordon if they don’t increase their offer, and recent comments from Arte Moreno seem to suggest that the Angels aren’t a likely destination either. The White Sox, however, have emerged as a possible suitor, and Gordon has been connected to a wide variety of teams this offseason.

10. Ian Desmond. It appears Desmond’s market has been slow to develop, which perhaps isn’t surprising given that he’s coming off a subpar season. The latest significant bits of news — and these are both over a week old — are that the Padres aren’t likely to make a large offer and that teams have at least some interest in using Desmond at second, third or outfield, even though he’s played shortstop almost exclusively in his big-league career.

13. Wei-Yin Chen. Many of the top pitchers in this year’s free agent market are off the board, with Chen as the top remaining name. The Dodgers might be a possibility, and the Nationals might as well. It’s unclear, however, whether any team will be willing to meet Chen’s reported five-year, $100MM asking price.

14. Kenta Maeda. On Christmas Day, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett tweeted that, according to a source in the Japanese media, Maeda visited Dodger Stadium on Thursday. That remains unconfirmed right now, but if in fact the Dodgers were close to signing Maeda, it would certainly make sense — the Dodgers figure to be in on most of the top starting pitchers remaining after having missed out on Greinke and other pitching targets. The deadline for Maeda to sign is January 8.

16. Dexter Fowler. The team to which Fowler has been most heavily connected lately has been the Giants, with another report mentioning the Royals as a possibility. One might think, though, that the market for second-tier outfielders like Fowler and Denard Span won’t come into focus until some of the bigger names come off the market, even though Fowler’s skill set as a full-time leadoff hitter and center fielder is somewhat different than those of Upton, Cespedes and Gordon.

18. Scott Kazmir. In contrast with a number of other big-name free agents, Kazmir’s name has popped up over and over this offseason. Lately, he’s been connected to the Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Athletics and Astros. He has apparently received offers of three years, but might be holding out hope for four. That could be a sticking point for some teams — the Orioles, for example, might not be willing to sign Kazmir to a four-year deal.

19. Ian Kennedy. Kennedy lately has been connected to the Royals and Marlins. At issue for Kennedy, of course, is that, in contrast with some other mid-tier options, signing him will result in the loss of a draft pick. Of course, the qualifying offer has not prevented pitchers like John Lackey, Jeff Samardzija and Hisashi Iwakuma from finding homes.

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