Detroit’s Underrated Trade Chip
Owners of a major league-worst 30-68 record, the Tigers figure to be one of baseball’s most active sellers prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline. Three of their players – starter Matthew Boyd, reliever Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos – stand among the most discussed trade chips in baseball. But they’re likely not the only Tigers who are on other teams’ radars as the deadline approaches. The club also has an underrated reliever, right-hander Buck Farmer, it could market.
As is the case with Boyd, who’s under control for the next few years, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to deal Farmer. He’s earning a minimal salary right now and won’t make his first of three potential trips through the arbitration process until the offseason. That said, Farmer’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and won’t in the immediate future, which makes him a sensible piece for Detroit to consider parting with in the next few days.
Farmer has been a member of the Tigers since they chose the ex-Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Although he wasn’t a particularly high selection, Farmer climbed up the team’s system to become the Tigers’ second-ranked prospect at Baseball America after the 2014 season, during which he briefly debuted in the bigs. At the time, BA contended Farmer could become a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, though it noted the Tigers may decide he’s better off in the bullpen.
Five years later, Farmer has indeed found his niche in Detroit’s relief corps. After a few seasons of posting mediocre to worse numbers as a starter and reliever, Farmer has morphed into a pleasant surprise this year. Farmer has logged a 3.70 ERA across 41 1/3 innings (45 appearances, one start) thus far. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but Farmer’s strikeout and walk rates (10.67 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) are impressive, as is his 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate, while his 3.20 FIP, 3.36 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP all suggest he has deserved better in the run prevention department. He’s generating groundballs at a 51.4 percent clip, which is exactly 11 percent higher than the GB rate he recorded over a full season of relief work last year. Along with inducing grounders at a below-average rate over 69 1/3 frames then, Farmer put up just 7.4 K/9 against 5.32 BB/9, helping lead to an unspectacular 4.15 ERA/4.46 FIP.
Like last year, Farmer has continued to fire four-seam fastballs at around 95 mph. However, Farmer has somewhat changed his pitch mix since then, per Statcast. He utilized his four-seamer approximately 57 percent of the time in 2018, but it’s down to just over 48 percent now. Meantime, Farmer’s slider usage has climbed significantly – from 17 percent to 27 – while his changeup reliance has continued to hover around the mid-20 percent range. The adjustment to Farmer’s repertoire has worked out. While batters have destroyed his fastball (.436 weighted on-base average, .422 xwOBA), they’ve done next to nothing against his slider (.240/.148) and change (.224/.271). Thanks largely to his hittable heater, Farmer ranks in the basement of the league (its sixth percentile) in hard-hit rate against. Still, his quality offspeed offerings have enabled Farmer to limit hitters to a respectable .320 wOBA/.313 xwOBA overall.
In Farmer, an acquiring team wouldn’t exactly be landing the most exciting option prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, Farmer’s an effective, cheap, controllable reliever who has helped the Tigers this year and would likely aid a contender. It would make sense for Detroit to consider selling high on Farmer in the coming days, and it would be logical for better teams to come calling.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Hamels, Jeimer, A’s, Lucroy, Rays, Brewers
Cubs left-hander Cole Hamels will “likely” return from the injured list Aug. 2 or 3 if he gets through one more rehab start unscathed, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Having suffered a left oblique strain June 28, it appears the 35-year-old will end up missing just over a month. The Cubs have tread water without Hamels, going 11-10 since he incurred his injury, which has been enough to stay atop the NL Central. They’re leading the division thanks in no small part to Hamels, who has recorded a 2.98 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.76 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 99 2/3 innings.
More from around baseball…
- Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario has begun getting reps at first base at the urging of general manager Al Avila and assistant GM David Chadd, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News explains. The decision comes with Triple-A third baseman Dawel Lugo “likely” on his way back to the majors soon, infield prospect Isaac Paredes soaring through the Tigers’ system and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos a strong bet to leave before the trade deadline, McCosky notes. Once Castellanos is out of the picture, the Tigers figure to use at least one of their current first base options – Harold Castro and Brandon Dixon – in right. Candelario has only played one major league game at first, though the 25-year-old has lined up there 35 times in the minors. Regardless of position, this has been a disappointing season for Candelario – who, along with Paredes – joined the Tigers in a trade with the Cubs in July 2017. Candelario was a top 100 prospect who was immediately successful in the majors, but he has batted just .213/.309/.360 (79 wRC+) with seven home runs in 272 plate appearances this year. To his credit, though, Candelario has hit far better since the Tigers demoted him to Toledo on May 15 and then recalled him June 26.
- Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea – out since he underwent shoulder surgery last September – survived a 76-pitch rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Manaea struggled over 4 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs and three HRs, but the A’s are encouraged that he remains on track to return to the majors by the second week of August. In the meantime, Manaea’s scheduled for two more Triple-A starts. He’ll progress to 90 pitches in his next outing and then 100 in what should be his final minors start of the year. In further good news for Oakland, outfielder Stephen Piscotty is slated to begin a rehab stint over the weekend. A sprained right MCL has shelved Piscotty since June 30.
- Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy will start a rehab assignment at the High-A level Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays. The Angels plan to re-evaluate Lucroy after he plays two games. The 33-year-old has been out since he bore the brunt of a brutal home plate collision with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick on July 7. The league issued Marisnick a two-game suspension for plowing into Lucroy, who suffered a concussion and a broken nose. Lucroy also had to undergo surgery on his nasal fracture.
- Baseball America released its latest organizational talent rankings on Thursday (subscription required). Led by shortstop Wander Franco, whom BA ranks as the game’s best prospect, the Rays check in at No. 1. However, even without Franco, BA contends the Rays would still have baseball’s premier farm system. Beyond Franco, the club boasts eight other top 100 prospects. The Brewers don’t have any, on the other hand, making them the outlet’s last-ranked org. As BA points out, though, superb rookie second baseman Keston Hiura did just graduate from Milwaukee’s system.
Latest On Rays’ Deadline Plans
Already without burgeoning ace Tyler Glasnow since May, the Rays’ rotation was dealt another serious blow Thursday with the news that reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell will undergo elbow surgery. The arthroscopic procedure will keep the left-hander out for at least four weeks, and it could prove to be a fatal shot to Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes. For now, though, the team remains very much in the wild-card hunt. The Rays trail the Athletics by one game for the AL’s final playoff spot, so they’re still hoping to buy before Wednesday’s trade deadline, general manager Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times after losing Snell.
“The belief we have in this group extends well beyond Blake,’’ Neander said. “As long as they’re able to take care of their business and play to their potential between now and the end of the month, I think we want to do everything we can not to take this season for granted and see if there is a way to help this team in a responsible fashion.’’
Taking care of business has been a struggle of late for the Rays, who have gone 6-8 since the All-Star break. They’ll next head north to face the non-contending Blue Jays three times before trekking to Boston for a crucial series that coincides with the deadline.
Should the Rays play well enough against their two division rivals to convince management to add pieces, the rotation is one obvious place the team could upgrade. Even before Snell went down, the Rays were connected to Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Zack Wheeler in the rumor mill (links here). However, they’re not particularly likely to address their starting staff from outside, according to Topkin. If they don’t, Topkin writes that the Rays figure to ride it out with two traditional rotation arms – current Cy Young candidate Charlie Morton and Yonny Chirinos – with Brendan McKay probably returning from the minors in August and openers set to make the other starts.
Elsewhere, the Rays have reportedly shown interest in a few right-handed hitters (the Rangers’ Hunter Pence, the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos and the Brewers’ Jesus Aguilar) and several relievers. Perhaps they’ll acquire someone from that group, but regardless, it’s clear the Rays are going to take a judicious approach over the next few days. The club’s sitting what’s likely an insurmountable 9 1/2 games behind the AL East-leading Yankees, meaning it’s vying just for the right to participate in a one-game playoff. Earning one of those two spots would have been a significant challenge with Snell around for the rest of the year. The task now looks much more difficult, but with Tampa Bay still in striking distance, it’s not ready to wave the white flag.
Ender Inciarte Hopes To Stay With Braves
Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is facing an uncertain future as the trade deadline approaches, having struggled this season and lost his place as a regular in the club’s lineup. Despite his downturn in playing time, Inciarte told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has no desire to leave the Braves.
“I haven’t heard if I’m going to get traded or not,” said Inciarte, who added: “If you ask me, would I rather be somewhere else, the answer is I’d rather not. I love Atlanta. There’s not any other uniform I’d like to wear.”
Rookie Austin Riley swiped Inciarte’s starting role after the veteran went to the injured list with a lumbar strain May 15. Inciarte returned a week ago after a two-month absence, but he has only collected 10 plate appearances since then. The Braves have typically deployed an outfield consisting of Riley in left, Ronald Acuna Jr. in center (Inciarte’s usual position) and Nick Markakis in right since Inciarte went down.
The Braves’ new outfield (mostly Acuna) has notched good production, though Riley’s numbers have tanked since a sizzling start. In the aggregate, though, Riley’s .246/.298/.504 line with 16 home runs in 242 PA far outpaces the .205/.293/.303 slash and two HRs Inciarte has put up across 150 PA. Moreover, the 28-year-old Inciarte owns the majors’ second-lowest average exit velocity (78.3 mph), per Statcast, which doesn’t show much of a gap between his paltry .262 weighted on-base average and his .271 expected wOBA. Needless to say, those numbers don’t bode well for a turnaround.
It’s true that Inciarte has never been an offensive force, but he was almost a league-average hitter with the Diamondbacks and Braves from 2014-18. Combining that with stellar defense and quality base running was enough to make Inciarte a solid starter prior to this season, and it helped convince the Braves to ink him to a five-year, $30.525MM extension in advance of the 2017 campaign. Thanks to that deal, Inciarte’s playing this year on a $5MM salary and will earn a combined $15MM over the next two seasons ($7MM in 2020, $8MM in ’21). Not long ago, those looked like bargain figures for Inciarte, but his disastrous 2019 – along with lessening his importance to the Braves – has surely done a number on his trade value.
Latest On Felix Hernandez
A right shoulder issue has prevented former Mariners superstar Felix Hernandez from taking the ball in the majors since May 11. As a result, the 33-year-old pending free agent isn’t a sure bet to suit up for the Mariners again, though he’s still holding out hope for a 2019 return, Greg Johns of MLB.com relays. Hernandez threw a 22-pitch live batting practice session Thursday and could begin a rehab assignment Sunday, but manager Scott Servais isn’t sure if he has progressed to that point, according to Johns.
If Hernandez does make it back to Seattle this year, the 2010 AL Cy Young winner and six-time All-Star realizes he’ll be auditioning just to land a 2020 opportunity somewhere.
“I need it,” Hernandez told Johns. “If I want to play next year, I need to go out there and pitch. I have to go out and compete. I’ve been thinking about next year, for sure. That’s why I need to go out there and show them I can pitch.”
A lack of availability was never a problem earlier in the career of Hernandez, who fired 190-plus innings each year from 2006 – his first full season – through 2015. Hernandez exceeded the 200-frame mark eight times during that span (every season from 2008-15) and combined for a sterling 3.13 ERA/3.21 FIP with 8.53 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and 50.4 fWAR over 2,178 innings. Hernandez looked like a potential Hall of Famer then, which convinced the Mariners to sign him to a seven-year, $175MM extension shortly before the 2013 season began. Unfortunately for Seattle, it hasn’t gotten great overall value out of its massive commitment to the franchise icon, who has faced injuries and a significant drop in performance over the past few seasons.
Hernandez declined into something akin to a back-end starter from 2016-17, a span in which he totaled 239 2/3 innings, and has statistically been one of the least effective rotation pieces in baseball since last season. Dating back to then, Hernandez has tossed 194 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.23 FIP ball. Although he has mustered playable strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.36 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.5 GB%), Hernandez ranks last in ERA and FIP among 102 starters who have accumulated 180 or more innings over the past year-plus.
Considering his recent, injury-aided fall from grace, Hernandez certainly isn’t on the brink of a lucrative trip to free agency (a guaranteed contract isn’t even a sure thing). However, it’s fair to say most baseball fans – especially those in Seattle – would like to see King Felix return this season and potentially end his tremendous Mariners tenure on a high note.
Twins Interested In Daniel Hudson
The Twins have already been connected to Toronto closer and prime trade chip Ken Giles, but they’re also interested in one of the Blue Jays’ less exciting relievers. Right-hander Daniel Hudson is on the Twins’ radar, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. They’re one of multiple teams eyeing the hard-throwing Hudson.
Unlike Giles, who’s under control through 2020, Hudson would be a rental for an acquiring team. He joined the Blue Jays for a guaranteed $1.5MM right before the season began. The well-traveled 32-year-old has since pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 45 innings, though his 4.31 FIP, 4.57 SIERA, 5.36 xFIP and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate – his lowest since 2012 – don’t inspire close to as much confidence. Along with those numbers, Hudson has logged 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, a 40.7 percent groundball rate and a 12.3 percent infield fly rate. Hudson’s above-average ability to induce pop-ups has helped him limit home runs, as he has surrendered just one per nine innings.
Homers also haven’t been a major problem this year for Twins relievers, who have yielded 1.25 per nine (good for 12th in the league). However, despite the Twins’ AL Central-leading 61-40 record, their bullpen has been something of a sore spot this year. That’s evidenced in part by the fact that the club has moved on from four relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. That quartet combined for just over 100 innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen this season.
As for the relievers the Twins have on hand right now, only Taylor Rogers and Ryne Harper have truly thrived over a full season of work. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have struck out upward of 10 batters per nine apiece, but the former has battled control issues and the latter has been susceptible to homers.
Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard and closer Edwin Diaz have come up as potential trade candidates in advance of the July 31 deadline, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen may have trouble dealing either. Van Wagenen’s difficulty wouldn’t necessarily stem from trying to find a trade partner, but from attempting to sell Mets ownership on a return for one or both right-handers. Van Wagenen doesn’t even want to present a possible Syndergaard or Diaz trade to owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon unless he’s confident they’ll sign off on it, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
While the Mets are reportedly “fully intent” on trading Syndergaard, talks haven’t grown so serious that Van Wagenen has gone to the Wilpons yet, per Sherman, who adds moving Syndergaard or Diaz wouldn’t signify the beginning of a rebuild. Instead, the Mets could part with one or both with the intention of immediately improving their roster – one that has stumbled to a 47-55 record in 2019.
As a rookie GM, Van Wagenen inherited Syndergaard – a member of the organization since 2013 – but he’s just a few months from swinging a blockbuster trade that brought Diaz to New York. The goal in acquiring Diaz and expensive second baseman Robinson Cano from the Mariners last offseason was to push the Mets toward contention this year. But the deal hasn’t worked out at all for the Mets, who’ve gotten disappointing contributions from Diaz and Cano and have watched Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn – the top two prospects they gave up – impress with their new organization. The Mets are leery of risking similar embarrassment now in selling Syndergaard or Diaz, Sherman suggests.
Diaz hasn’t been nearly the pitcher he was a year ago, when he turned in a 1.96 ERA with 15.22 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and an eye-popping 57 saves in 73 1/3 innings, but he remains valuable. Although Diaz has recorded a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 innings, a 3.50 FIP with 13.96 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and 97 mph velocity accompany that bloated figure. He’s also young (25), on a near-minimum salary this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years. It’s understandable the Mets would need a huge return to move him, though their hope of acquiring a comparable or better package for Diaz than they originally gave up for him is likely a pipe dream.
Meantime, it could be an even bigger challenge for Van Wagenen to talk the Wilpons into giving their blessing to a Syndergaard deal. There’s skepticism Fred Wilpon, in particular, wouldn’t “appreciate the quality” of a return for Syndergaard, writes Sherman. He points to what the Rays received last summer for Chris Archer (whom the Pirates got for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz) as a possible comparable for Syndergaard. However, even a valuable package along those lines may not be enough to convince the Wilpons that it would be OK for Van Wagenen to move the coveted 26-year-old hurler.
Rangers Acquire Shane Carle, Designate Kyle Dowdy
The Rangers have acquired right-hander Shane Carle from the Braves for cash considerations, per an announcement from John Blake, Texas’ executive vice president of communications. Carle has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville. To make room for Carle, the Rangers activated righty Kyle Dowdy from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment.
Carle was DFA’ed by the Braves yesterday after posting a 9.64 ERA over just 9 1/3 innings of work this season. Carle emerged as a workhorse with a 63-inning performance out of Atlanta’s bullpen in 2018, though his performance began to fade even down the stretch last year, despite an overall 2.86 ERA. While strikeouts have never been a huge aspect of Carle’s game, he has missed more bats than usual at Triple-A Gwinnett this season, with an 8.4 K/9 rate over 33 1/3 frames. Those extra K’s haven’t helped Carle avoid a 5.13 ERA for Gwinnett, however.
A change of scenery could be just what Carle needs, as he does boast some very good velocity (94.7 mph average fastball over his 76 1/3 IP in the big leagues) and a 4.14 ERA over 562 2/3 innings in the minors. He’s a fairly low-cost acquisition for Texas, and an arm that could provide more immediate MLB upside than Dowdy.
Originally a member of the Indians’ farm system, Dowdy was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 Draft and then claimed off waivers by the Rangers during Spring Training. Dowdy had a 7.25 ERA over his first 22 1/3 innings in the majors before going on the injured list in early June with an elbow impingement. If Dowdy clears DFA waivers, the Rangers will have to offer him back to Cleveland.
Latest On Marcus Stroman
Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman has looked like a surefire trade candidate for a while. Even he expects to move before the July 31 trade deadline, having said after his Wednesday start – possibly his last with the Blue Jays – “There’s been no willingness from the front office to sign me, so I’ve just kind of come to terms with it and I’m ready to dominate, wherever that may be, absolutely dominate.”
Now, though, there are conflicting reports on whether Toronto is gearing up to part with Stroman, who’s earning $7.4MM this season and still has another year of arbitration control left. While Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that Stroman is “generally viewed within the industry as the most likely top starter to be traded,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Blue Jays have informed teams they may extend the 28-year-old instead of moving him. As Martino notes, though, it may be a negotiating ploy on the part of Toronto, which – as Stroman said – hasn’t shown any real desire to commit to him for the long haul. It’s hard to believe the team will drastically change course on the cusp of the deadline.
The division-rival Yankees are among an array of contenders who have been connected to Stroman of late, but despite the problems in their rotation, a deal doesn’t look particularly likely to come together. New York hasn’t pursued Stroman as ardently as it went after one of his former teammates – fellow starter J.A. Happ – last year, according to Sherman, who reports the Yankees aren’t the perceived front-runners for Stroman right now. The club did land Happ, whom it then wound up re-signing to a two-year, $34MM contract in free agency, but the left-hander has fallen way short of expectations this season. Happ’s struggles are a key reason the league-leading Yankees are in the market for a high-end starter this summer.
Royals Rumors: Merrifield, Diekman
Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield is unsurprisingly drawing interest from contenders with the trade deadline just a few days away. The Cubs, Braves and Phillies are among the teams eyeing Merrifield, but it appears they’ll have to look elsewhere. The Royals are telling teams they’re not going to deal him, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports.
Even though the Royals are just 39-64 this season and will have trouble pushing for a playoff spot in the near future, the 30-year-old Merrifield has never looked like an especially realistic trade candidate. Royals general manager Dayton Moore hasn’t made it any secret he has an affinity for Merrifield, who he said in June is “one of the best players in all of baseball right now.” Moore also stated then it would take a “crazy” offer for Kansas City to move Merrifield, whom it signed to a four-year, $16.25MM extension in the offseason.
On a KC team with few major bright spots, Merrifield has continued his run as an eminently valuable performer this year. He has slashed .306/.357/.495 (122 wRC+) with 49 extra-base hits (28 doubles, 12 home runs, nine triples) and 15 steals on 23 attempts in 470 plate appearances. Merrifield has also chipped in 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating between second base and the outfield. The entire package has been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.7 fWAR. Between Merrifield’s affordability and his on-field excellence, there’s a case the rebuilding Royals should trade him – they’d surely net an exorbitant return – but it doesn’t look as if it’s going to happen.
Meanwhile, reliever Jake Diekman seems almost guaranteed to change uniforms by the end of the month. In addition to the already reported Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals, Diekman has drawn interest from the Cubs, Cardinals and Braves, per Morosi. Diekman, 32, is on a $2.75MM guarantee and has a $5.75MM mutual option for 2020. The hard-throwing left-hander has pitched to a pedestrian 4.75 ERA in 41 2/3 innings this season. But he has logged a far better 3.36 FIP with 13.61 K/9, 4.97 BB/9 and a 48.4 percent groundball rate.