Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Sale, Eaton, Chapman, Hill, Sox, Yanks, Astros
This week in baseball blogs…
- Big Three Sports and Off The Bench Baseball react to the blockbuster Chris Sale trade between the White Sox and Red Sox.
- Wayniac Nation criticizes the Nationals for the Adam Eaton trade and the Yankees for re-signing Aroldis Chapman.
- MLB Reports opines that the Dodgers will regret re-signing left-hander Rich Hill.
- Baseball Hot Corner recaps the busy Tuesday the Red Sox had at the winter meetings.
- The Runner Sports covers the Astros’ reunion with Carlos Beltran.
- Pinstriped Prospects chats with Trenton Thunder manager Bobby Mitchell about two of the prospects the Yankees lost in the Rule 5 draft.
- Inside the ‘Zona submits its offseason plan for the Diamondbacks.
- Outside Pitch MLB points to White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier as an ideal trade target for the Mets.
- The First Out At Third reviews this week’s Brewers-Red Sox trade.
- Jays From The Couch polls readers on whether the Blue Jays should trade right-hander Marcus Stroman to the Rockies for outfielder Charlie Blackmon.
- Yanks Go Yard looks back at the Yankees’ week at the winter meetings.
- The 3rd Man In proposes an Angels-Yankees trade centering on Mike Trout.
- The Point of Pittsburgh touches on a few Pirates subjects, including some optimistic rest-of-career comparables for center fielder Andrew McCutchen.
- Call To The Pen suggests the Phillies swing a trade for Mets outfielder Jay Bruce.
- MLB 451 praises the Diamondbacks for their low-cost signing of closer Fernando Rodney.
- Camden Depot explains that the Orioles’ rotation could be in for a serious shakeup a year from now.
- Die Hard NYY argues that the Yankees should re-sign free agent designated hitter Billy Butler.
- Pirates Breakdown laments the Bucs’ inability to win the battle between art and science.
- Chin Music Baseball lists the 19 most powerful who didn’t finish with at least 30 home runs last season.
- Astros County revisits the past few years’ ZiPS projections to show how much progress Houston has made.
- Jays Journal wonders where Dalton Pompey fits in the Blue Jays’ 2017 outfield plans.
- Clubhouse Corner interviews Allie Littell, the mother of Yankees prospect Zack Littell, about life as the parent of a professional baseball player.
- Baseball Hot Corner evaluates the tenures of all five commissioners in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
- Rotisserie Duck shares some of the information found in the 2017 Bill James Handbook.
Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.
Latest On Shohei Otani
There was hope last weekend that two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Otani would be on his way to the major leagues after next season, but it may be time to pump the brakes on that optimism. Major league officials met with international scouting directors Tuesday and informed them that there will be no special treatment for Otani under the new collective bargaining agreement, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). Thus, if the right-handed ace/left-handed hitter’s current team – the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters – does make him available to major league clubs after next season, the international rules included in the CBA will significantly limit his earning power.
As the CBA stipulates – and as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan details – teams only have between $4.75MM to $5.75MM per year to spend on international free agents who are under 25. They can trade for up to 75 percent more spending room, meaning $8.3MM to $10MM is the most any club would be able to allocate to Otani. Moreover, Otani wouldn’t have the ability to become a major league free agent until he has six years of service time. That further takes away incentive for him to immigrate to the majors until at least after the 2019 season, when he’ll be 25.
Under the prior CBA, international restrictions would have only applied to Otani until he turned 23. His 23rd birthday is next July, meaning he could have been in position to sign a mega-deal a year from now had the previous rules stayed in place.
“Just when Otani was about to come over, they changed the rules” a major league scout who works in Japan told Jim Allen of Kyodo News.
Otani has garnered significant hype as a pitcher, even generating Noah Syndergaard comparisons, thanks in part to a fastball that can touch 102 mph on the radar gun. He dominated in Nippon Professional Baseball last season with a four-pitch mix, recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 3.87 K/BB in 140 innings. Otani broke out as a hitter, too, with a stellar .322/.416/.588 line and 22 home runs across 382 plate appearances. As a result, the NPB named him both the best pitcher and top hitter of the 2016 season. Now, to the chagrin of MLB fans, it seems Otani will remain a member of the NPB for at least three more seasons.
Free Agency Notes: Giants, Dodgers, Chapman, Wieters, Alvarez
It appears that closer Mark Melancon will be the only major pickup the Giants make this offseason. The club has all but reached its payroll limit as a result of adding Melancon on a four-year, $62MM deal Monday, and it’s unlikely to make any significant dollar-for-dollar trades, general manager Bobby Evans told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. “I don’t think there’s anything more to ask of ownership,” Evans said. “It’s more what I can do with what we have.” The Giants logged opening-day payrolls upward of $172MM in the previous two seasons, and Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates they’ll start 2017 at $183MM-plus.
More free agency-related news:
- The Dodgers made an attempt to sign closer Aroldis Chapman, but they didn’t come particularly close to succeeding, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. It doesn’t seem as if Chapman was actually receptive to playing in Los Angeles, as the agreement he reached with the Yankees late Wednesday includes the ability to block trades to all West Coast teams.
- Free agent catcher Matt Wieters might not sign until late in the offseason, in part because the market is slow for catchers, agent Scott Boras informed Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun on Wednesday. As he’s known to do, Boras talked up his client, saying, “Look, he threw out over 35 percent of his runners. When Matt Wieters is behind the plate, the Orioles are in the playoffs. He’s won Gold Gloves … and his ERA of the pitching staff is one run lower than when other catchers catch. I think Baltimore has a real commodity there. He’s performed at high levels there.” Wieters – who’s coming off a poor year from both offensive and pitch–framing standpoints – remains a possibility for the catcher-needy Orioles, according to both Boras and O’s general manager Dan Duquette. The 30-year-old Wieters has been a member of the Baltimore organization since it drafted him fifth overall in 2007.
- Corner infielder/designated hitter Pedro Alvarez, another Baltimore free agent and Boras client, has drawn interest from “a number of teams,” the agent told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Interestingly, in an effort to improve his earning power, Alvarez could try to market himself as a part-time outfielder. “Pedro is actually going to start playing the outfield, as well,” Boras said. “He’s obviously working at first base and we’re going to try and get his defensive acumen more in the field as his career goes forward.” The big-bodied Alvarez has struggled at first and third during his career (and played DH almost exclusively in 2016), so it’s difficult to imagine him faring well in the grass.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/8/16
The latest minor moves from around baseball:
- The Yankees have re-signed left-hander Joe Mantiply to a minor league contract, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. New York released the 25-year-old Nov. 28, just under three weeks after claiming him off waivers from the Tigers, but he’ll now return to the Yankees organization. A 27th-round pick in 2013, Mantiply made his major league debut with Detroit last season and yielded five runs, seven hits and walks in just 2 2/3 innings. He was far more successful in the minors, where he registered a 2.73 ERA with 10.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in a combined 59 1/3 frames between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
- Right-hander Parker Markel‘s previously reported contract in Asia is with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization, according to Zach Links of Pro Football Rumors and MLBTR (Twitter link). The former Rays farmhand will receive a $525K base salary and could land up to $135K in incentives.
Red Sox Tried To Acquire Wade Davis From Royals
Before Boston acquired reliever Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee on Tuesday, the Red Sox made a run at then-Kansas City closer Wade Davis, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. Corner infielder Travis Shaw was the major league headliner the Red Sox surrendered for Thornburg, but he wasn’t enticing enough to the Royals in a Davis deal, a source told Bradford. The Royals instead preferred now-former Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler, whom they acquired for Davis in a one-for-one swap on Wednesday.
[RELATED: Thornburg, MLBTR contributor Burke Badenhop chat about the trade]
Landing Davis would have given the Red Sox two of the majors’ most proven closers in him and Craig Kimbrel, though the former has more setup experience and likely would have served in that role in Boston. Davis has been dominant since 2014, his first year as a full-time reliever, but picking up him instead of Thornburg would have put a greater dent in the payroll of a Red Sox franchise that’s trying to stay under the $195MM luxury-tax threshold. The 31-year-old Davis would have cost the team $10MM in 2017, the last season of his contract, while Thornburg is set to rake in a much more modest salary (an estimated $2.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his age-28 campaign. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 via arbitration and could potentially give the Red Sox a top-caliber setup man over the next three seasons. While he doesn’t have Davis’ track record, Thornburg is nonetheless coming off a breakout year, having recorded a 2.15 ERA, 12.09 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across a career-high 67 innings.
As is often the cases with pitchers, both relievers carry health risks: Davis was on the disabled twice last season because of forearm and flexor strains, and the Brewers shut down Thornburg early in 2014 on account of a UCL injury that nearly led to Tommy John surgery.
Meanwhile, that the Royals went for the upside play in Soler over Shaw is understandable. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Soler’s also younger (2017 will be Shaw’s age-27 season), though he comes with less control. Shaw won’t be a free agent until after the 2021 season, and he has two pre-arbitration years remaining, whereas Soler can hit the open market at the end of the 2020 campaign. He can also opt into arbitration beginning next winter, which seems likely if he comes closer to realizing his vast potential. For now, though, the Cuba native is due a modest $15MM over the remainder of the nine-year, $30MM contract he signed with the Cubs in 2012.
AL Notes: Holliday, Chapman, Royals, Sox
The newest member of the Yankees’ lineup, outfielder/designated hitter Matt Holliday, clearly didn’t enjoy his 93-game stint with the Athletics in 2009. Included in the one-year, $13MM deal Holliday signed with New York is the ability to block a trade to one team – the A’s – tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Acquiring Holliday from the Rockies in November 2008 cost the A’s reliever Huston Street and, more painfully, outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Former big-time first base prospect Brett Wallace headlined the package the A’s received from St. Louis for Holliday in July 2009, but Wallace never played a game for Oakland. The A’s dealt him to Toronto for now-former big league outfielder Michael Taylor (not to be confused with the member of the Nationals) the next offseason.
More from the American League:
- One of Holliday’s new teammates, closer Aroldis Chapman, also has a unique no-trade clause in the record-breaking contract he signed with the Yankees on Wednesday. Chapman can block a deal to Oakland and all other West Coast-based teams (Twitter link), and he explained his reasoning to ESPN’s Marly Rivera. “I just didn’t want to go that far from my family. I did have the opportunity to stay here near my house (in Florida, playing with the Miami Marlins) but no, I leaned more towards (going to) New York,” said Chapman.
- The Royals have expressed interest in free agent reliever Greg Holland, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he’ll likely end up out of their price range (Twitter link). Of course, the Royals organization is the only one Holland has been a member of to this point. A 10th-round pick in 2007, Holland made his major league debut in 2010 and soon turned into one of the majors’ premier relievers. Unfortunately, the two-time All-Star underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2015 – shortly before the Royals won their first World Series since 1985 – and missed their playoff run that year and all of last season as a result.
- In their discussions that led to the Chris Sale trade, the White Sox pressed the Red Sox to include top third base prospect Rafael Devers in a potential package, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Unwilling to move Devers, Boston compromised by including both right-hander Victor Diaz and outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe. The 20-year-old Devers is MLB.com’s 20th-ranked prospect, while Baseball America placed him 41st on its midseason list.
Blue Jays Rumors: Encarnacion, Catchers, Bullpen
The latest on Toronto:
- The Blue Jays continue to monitor and stay in touch with free agent first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Encarnacion’s preference is to re-sign with the Jays, but he’s talking less with them than he is with other teams, per Heyman. Notably, Toronto general manager Ross Atkins expressed pessimism Wednesday about re-upping Encarnacion. While the 33-year-old’s market has seemingly shrunk in the past week, agent Paul Kinzer isn’t worried that Encarnacion will have difficulty securing a sizable contract – whether with the Jays or another team. “Not only is he the best player in this class, he’s one of the best in baseball,” Kinzer told Heyman. “We’re going to be fine. He and I are patient. He’s good” (Twitter links here).
- Having lost left-handed setup man Brett Cecil to the Cardinals, the Blue Jays are on the hunt for a southpaw reliever, leading to interest in Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn and Javier Lopez, report Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi. However, the contracts given to Cecil (four years, $30.5MM) and fellow lefty Marc Rzepczynski (two years, $11MM) have perhaps driven up the prices for Blevins, Dunn and Lopez, meaning the Jays could scour the trade market for a cheaper option than free agency offers, Nicholson-Smith and Davidi observe.
- Along with Chris Iannetta, fellow free agent catchers Bobby Wilson and Geovany Soto are on Toronto’s radar, write Nicholson-Smith and Davidi. The Blue Jays are looking for someone to back up Russell Martin, whose 2016 reserves – Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro – are also on the open market.
Rockies Looking To Acquire Pitching
With Ian Desmond now in Colorado and free agent slugger Mark Trumbo a candidate to join him, the Rockies may soon have a surplus of quality position players. Center fielder Charlie Blackmon‘s name was already in the rumor mill before the Rockies agreed to a five-year, $70MM deal with Desmond on Wednesday, so the odds of the team moving him have perhaps increased since. General manager Jeff Bridich responded to that Wednesday, telling reporters – including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post – that the Rockies “have not had any intention of trading” Blackmon. At the same time, he didn’t rule it out.
“As I’ve said before, we’re just going to keep our ears open and eyes open,” said Bridich. “That’s just part of the business.”
If the Rockies do deal Blackmon, odds are they’ll try to acquire starting pitching in return – especially if they sign Trumbo. Picking him up would likely push Desmond from first base to an outfield that, in addition to Blackmon, currently includes Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra. But Colorado fully intends to play Desmond at first, sources told Saunders, which could certainly affect both Trumbo and Blackmon. Regardless, the Rockies are indeed searching for a high-end starter, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link), and acquiring a major rotation piece would have to come via trade thanks to the weakness of this year’s free agent class. One front-line starter in whom the Rockies have interest is Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman, but the Blue Jays are unwilling to swap him for Blackmon, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).
Although the Blue Jays are in need of outfield help, something Blackmon would certainly provide, their reluctance to part with Stroman isn’t particularly surprising. After all, Stroman exceeded the 200-inning barrier and posted a 60.1 percent ground-ball rate in 2016, and ERA estimators like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.41) and SIERA (3.62) indicated that he deserved better than his 4.37 ERA. Moreover, the 25-year-old Stroman is far younger than Blackmon, 30, and is under team control for longer. Stroman is set to make his first of four possible trips through arbitration this offseason, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $3.5MM award. Blackmon, meanwhile, is two years from free agency and will make an estimated $9MM in 2017 after slashing .324/.381/.552 with 29 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 641 plate appearances last season.
Whether or not the Rockies land another starter, Bridich reiterated Wednesday that they’re pushing to improve their bullpen, which was among the majors’ worst last season. With their top southpaw from 2016, Boone Logan, now on the open market, the Rockies have turned some of their attention to fellow left-handed free agent reliever Mike Dunn (via Thomas Harding of MLB.com).
“We’ve looked at just about every free-agent reliever, and with him being in the National League, we’ve seen him a number of times and there’s some level of familiarity there,” Bridich said of the longtime Marlin. “And he’s still available. He’s somebody, to a certain degree, we’re paying attention to.”
The Rockies are also in on right-hander Brad Ziegler, with Bridich telling Harding, “He’s certainly a good pitcher, and with how many times we’ve seen him and faced him, we feel like we know him real well.”
As Bridich pointed out, the Rockies are familiar with Ziegler, who was with the NL West rival Diamondbacks from 2010 until they traded him to Boston last July. Given his grounder-heavy ways (a 66.3 percent rate over 596 2/3 career innings), the 37-year-old Ziegler would seemingly be a solid fit at home run-happy Coors Field. He also has experience as a closer, having amassed 52 saves over the past two seasons, and would be a strong bet to serve in that role with the Rockies.
Rangers, Pirates Interested In Tyson Ross
The Padres non-tendered Tyson Ross last week in lieu of paying the injured right-hander an estimated $9.6MM via arbitration in 2017. Now a free agent, Ross is looking for similar money – $9MM to $11MM – on a one-year deal, and that likely doesn’t include incentives, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link).
Having already added ex-Padre Andrew Cashner to their rotation this offseason, the Rangers have “done significant homework” on Ross, sources told Grant (via Twitter). A healthy Ross would fill out Texas’ rotation on paper, giving the reigning American League West champions a group consisting of him, Cashner, Martin Perez, Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.
Like Darvish and Hamels, Ross has front-line ability, having logged a 3.03 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and 59.2 percent ground-ball rate in 391 2/3 innings from 2014-15. However, the soon-to-be 30-year-old spun only 5 1/3 frames last season – all of which came on opening day – because of shoulder issues. Ross underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, and the expectation is that he’ll recover sometime between February and April.
Along with the Rangers, the Pirates have shown interest in Ross, reports Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). While Ross would give the Pirates and ballyhooed pitching coach Ray Searage an interesting reclamation project, his health troubles could make his asking price problematic for the low-payroll franchise. Nevertheless, with Ivan Nova perhaps set to leave Pittsburgh as a free agent and 2016 innings leader Jeff Locke now a Marlin after the Pirates non-tendered him, the club has obvious holes in its rotation. Clearly cognizant of that, the Pirates have checked in on a few other starters – including Doug Fister, Jorge De La Rosa, Derek Holland and the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi – at this week’s winter meetings.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Fowler, Turner, Bautista, Ross
The Cardinals have been connected to free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler throughout the offseason, and the club made him an initial offer Monday during a meeting with his representatives, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports. That’s at least the second offer Fowler has received – the Blue Jays have reportedly proposed a four-year deal in the $60MM neighborhood. Fowler is seeking $18MM annually on a multiyear pact.
More from Rosenthal:
- It’s likely the Dodgers and free agent third baseman Justin Turner will work out a new deal, which is the two sides’ hope, according to Rosenthal. It could come at a lower cost than expected, notes Rosenthal, who points to a lack of clear fits for Turner’s services. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Turner will return to the Dodgers on a five-year, $85MM accord.
- With teams reluctant to surrender a first-round pick to sign free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jose Bautista, it’s possible the 36-year-old will sign with a club that has a protected selection, contends Rosenthal. The only teams that wouldn’t have to give up a first-rounder for Bautista are those that finished in the bottom 10 in the standings last season. Bautista could be limited to signing with an American League team because of the DH, and Rosenthal points out that the Twins, Rays, Athletics and Angels are the AL franchises with protected first-rounders. However, there’s not a logical landing spot in that group, Rosenthal observes. Sources told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi that Bautista’s “market is picking up,” so he might not have to settle for a deal with a low-tier club.
- Free agent right-hander Tyson Ross, who has been recovering from thoracic outlet surgery since October, is likely to sign with a team that’s adept at “handling and rehabilitating pitchers,” Rosenthal writes. One such club is the Padres, who non-tendered Ross last week in lieu of paying him an estimated $9.6MM in 2017. San Diego and Ross have mutual interest in a reunion, though, and Rosenthal notes that Ross’ affinity for Friars pitching coach Darren Balsley could help their cause. Other possibilities for Ross include the Cubs – who have tried to acquire Ross in the past – as well as the Indians, Pirates, Mariners and Giants, per Rosenthal.