Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

Latest On J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 7:41pm CDT

7:41pm: Both Happ and former teammate Lance Lynn are “engaged with” the Astros, Yankees, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Happ’s also continuing to draw the attention of the Phillies, while Lynn has received interest from the White Sox, according to Feinsand.

9:53am: It has seemed for the past few days that veteran lefty J.A. Happ could be the next domino to fall in the starting pitching market, and there are signs this morning that talks are advancing. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Happ’s market is “heating up,” while Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter that Happ is sitting on multiple two-year offers.

The key question remains whether Happ will secure a guaranteed third season. Passan says that he has yet to receive such an offer. Happ’s representatives have “indicated he’ll sign with the first” team that meets that asking price, however, so it seems possible that something could come together swiftly.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Happ would indeed secure that third season in a new deal, riding his solid recent track record to a $48MM guarantee. There certainly seems to be sufficient interest to support such an outcome, though organizations are understandably hesitant to commit to Happ through his age-38 campaign.

To this point, the Phillies, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Reds, Angels, Astros, Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox have all been connected to Happ. It’s certainly not impossible to imagine a few other organizations with possible interest as well, though at present it’s tough to gauge the likeliest landing spots.

Athletics Sign Chris Herrmann

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 5:30pm CDT

5:30pm: Oakland has announced the signing.

3:56pm: The Athletics have agreed to sign catcher Chris Herrmann, according to veteran reporter Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). It’s a one-year pact, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter), and is worth $1MM plus incentives, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

Herrmann’s tour of the AL West continues. He played well last year for the Mariners and spent a brief stretch on the Astros’ 40-man roster earlier this winter before being non-tendered. He had projected to earn a $1.5MM salary, which was obviously a bit north of what the Houston organization was ultimately willing to commit after it had a chance to survey the market fully.

The A’s will presumably utilize Herrmann mostly behind the dish, though he has also spent a fair bit of time in the outfield and at first base. That’s handy to have around, at least when he’s hitting enough to warrant time in those positions. At a minimum, it increases a team’s roster flexibility.

Herrmann, who just turned 31, has never been a consistent offensive producer. He has had productive stretches in two of the past three seasons, but scuffled to a .181/.273/.345 slash in 256 plate appearances in 2017 — his most extensive action in the majors. Still, it’s hard not to like some of the tools. Herrmann has some swing and miss to his game, but he knows how to draw a walk and has pop in addition to grading well on the bases.

Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | December 11, 2018 at 4:19pm CDT

Dec. 11: Corbin’s deal includes a $2.5MM signing bonus, per Heyman, and the following yearly salaries: $12.5MM in 2019, $19MM in 2020, $24MM in 2021, $23MM in 2022, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024.

Dec. 7: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Corbin to a six-year contract.

“As the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, we targeted Patrick from the onset,” said general manager Mike Rizzo in a statement within the press release. “He was one of the top pitchers in the National League in 2018 and at 29 years old, we believe the best is yet to come. We are thrilled to bring him into our organization.”

Dec. 6: Just $10MM of salary is deferred, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be due in a period from November of 2024 through January of 2026, so ultimately it’s only a small portion of the contract that won’t be kicked very far down the road.

Dec. 4: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

Deferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.

It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.

The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).

Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.

This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).

Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).

It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.

Beyond questions of the sustainability of Corbin’s performance, many will wonder whether this contract brings too much health risk. The southpaw missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, after all. Of course, the Nats have not shied away from TJ patients in the past, and Corbin has otherwise mostly been a rather durable hurler by today’s standards. He topped two hundred frames in 2013 and slung 189 2/3 in the 2017 campaign. Plus, the still-youthful hurler has a deeper potential advantage for longevity: he did not push his arm on the youth baseball circuit and did not even join the baseball team in high school until he was a junior.

The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.

Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.

Now that the dust has cleared, Corbin has ended up topping some notable recent price points. In addition to beating the Darvish deal, he’ll receive more total money than Johnny Cueto ($130MM), though that contract included an early opt-out chance, as well as Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM). The contract will still fall comfortably shy of Jon Lester’s somewhat front-loaded, $155MM pact with the Cubs in December of 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Spots Images.

Royals Sign Billy Hamilton

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 3:20pm CDT

TODAY: The deal is official. Hamilton will receive a $4.25MM salary in 2019, with a $1MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Hamilton’s incentives package is based upon plate appearances, beginning with his 325th and maxing out at 550.

YESTERDAY, 7:58pm: Hamilton and the Royals have agreed to the deal, Fancred’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

11:02am: Saying that Hamilton’s defensive abilities make for a good fit at spacious Kauffman Stadium, Royals GM Dayton Moore confirmed that the club is down the line in talks with the free agent in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

It’s a $5.25MM deal that includes up to $1MM in available incentives, per Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

9:57am: The Royals are “close” to striking a deal with free agent outfielder Billy Hamilton, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the prospective agreement are not yet known.

This potential match was reported recently and seems to have continued to progress over recent days. Hamilton, 28, was recently non-tendered by the Reds. He had projected to take home a $5.9MM salary in arbitration, a price tag deemed too steep by his longtime organization.

For the Royals, Hamilton would become the second player added under similar circumstances. The organization just nabbed infielder/outfielder Chris Owings after he was cut loose by the Diamondbacks. It seems the Kansas City club is willing to place some low-priced value bets on younger players whose time ran out with other teams.

Hamilton, certainly, is an interesting asset for any organization. Though the switch-hitter has never done much with the bat, especially against left-handed pitching, he’s an elite defender and baserunner. His skillset could benefit the Royals’ uncertain pitching staff while potentially leaving the team with a marketable mid-season trade piece.

It stands to reason that adding Hamilton would push out one of the Royals’ existing left-handed-hitting outfielders. Unless there’s a taker for the remainder of Alex Gordon’s contract, or the K.C. club does not wish to extend the audition of Brett Phillips, it could be that Brian Goodwin will ultimately be nudged out of the roster picture. The right-handed-hitting Jorge Soler is also a factor in the mix, though he could see time in the DH slot as well.

Report: Red Sox Taking Offers On Rick Porcello, Others

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 3:06pm CDT

The defending World Series champion Red Sox are at least opening the door to some surprising sell-side moves, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). Though the club is obviously not going to divert from its attempt to repeat, it seems there’s a movement afoot to pare back some existing payroll.

The true end goal here isn’t clear. Boston already splurged to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi, giving him a four-year deal at a $17MM rate of pay, and it doesn’t seem as if the club is interested in doing anything that would substantially harm its competitive position. The division, after all, promises to be quite competitive — to say nothing of the top-heavy American League.

Still, the Sox are said to be “openly listening” to offers for veteran right-hander Rick Porcello, who’ll earn $21MM this year before reaching free agency. Yet more surprisingly, the club is said to be “willing to talk about” star shortstop Xander Bogaerts (projected $11.9MM arbitration salary in final season of eligibility) and quality center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($7.9MM, second-to-last season of eligibility).

Parting with any of these players would clearly harm the team’s 2019 roster — unless, that is, there was a plan in place to add a different piece to fill the opening. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the idea would indeed be to repurpose any payroll savings, perhaps opening the door to some bullpen reinforcements.

While that’s sensible from one perspective, it still feels like an incomplete picture. After all, it’s not as if the Boston organization has high-quality fill-in pieces knocking down the door. In Porcello’s case, at least, there’s an argument that the Red Sox have sufficient depth after bringing back Eovaldi, but it obviously wouldn’t be as good as the sturdy 29-year-old. Bogaerts is not remotely replaceable from within; presumably, the club would go onto the market for a different option at short. As for Bradley, it’s easy to imagine Andrew Benintendi taking over in center, but that’d still leave an outfield opening that would need to be addressed in some regard (perhaps in part through reliance upon Steve Pearce and other existing reserves).

It’s fair to wonder just what the Sox could anticipate recouping in hypothetical trades. Porcello’s hefty salary limits his appeal, making him more of a candidate to be dealt for another spendy veteran or perhaps a limited prospect return. Bogaerts has plenty of rental value, though the Red Sox would be dealing with fellow contenders to find a fit and there’s limited demand at the shortstop position. Bradley is controllable fr two years and could fit in plenty of places, though his offensive numbers have been down and he’s not the type of piece that most teams would go wild to acquire — particularly with some similar players potentially also available via trade.

Generally speaking, boosting the farm would certainly be of interest, but it’d be quite tricky to do that and save money without significantly damaging the team’s immediate competitiveness. Sussing out how this potential strategy could make sense in the aggregate is frankly difficult to do without contemplating multiple successive transactions. It’s certainly a fascinating development for the Red Sox and the broader market, but it is tough to guess at this point how it might all play out.

Blue Jays Release Troy Tulowitzki

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 2:01pm CDT

The Blue Jays announced today that they have released veteran shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. The Toronto organization will remain obligated to pay him the remaining $38MM in guaranteed money on his contract (including a buyout of a 2021 option).

Tulowitzki, 34, missed all of the 2018 season due to bone spurs in both heels. He had been sidelined for a long stretch of 2017 as well, all while enduring an offensive decline, making for quite an uncertain future for the former superstar.

Still, it’s surprising that the Jays ended up moving on in this fashion. With two more guaranteed seasons on his contract, Tulowitzki could have been given a shot to work back to health and perhaps build up some trade value. Evidently that was not seen as a workable solution by the organization, which is transitioning to what it hopes will be a new core.

Teams that wish to take a shot on a rebound can now employ Tulowitzki for the league minimum salary for the next two campaigns, with the Jays footing the remainder of the bill. He’ll surely be guided by the chance at playing time, among other considerations, though even with that appealing contract situation it remains to be seen whether any MLB clubs will consider Tulo a reasonable candidate for semi-regular time (and, if so, whether he’ll still be seen as a shortstop).

Latest On Corner Outfield Market

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 1:31pm CDT

The focus of the corner outfield market remains on Bryce Harper, of course, but there are a few other significant players available. Regarding Harper, there’s not much in the way of news, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at how he could conceivably end up falling to the Dodgers, who are said to be pursuing high-end assets. Here, though, we’ll focus in on the next-best assets on the market.

The Phillies are “showing significant interest” in Andrew McCutchen, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, representing a new connection for the former superstar. Cutch is nowhere near the player he once was, but that easy characterization can tend to obscure how good he still is.

Meanwhile, the Astros are said to be in on another top corner piece. Per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, via Twitter, the Houston organization has interest in Michael Brantley. That’s a bit of a surprising match, if only because the team is still paying top dollar to another veteran lefty corner outfielder in Josh Reddick, but perhaps Brantley could also spend some time at first base to increase his versatility.

Earlier in the offseason, both McCutchen and Brantley were connected to the ’Stros — though mostly as part of a group of significant free agents. The Houston plans have remained hard to figure to this point, with the team’s intentions regarding top prospect Kyle Tucker potentially weighing in their assessment of new acquisition targets.

MLBTR predicted that both McCutchen and Brantley would secure three-year, $45MM pacts. There’s no real clarity as of yet as to whether the market will support those or greater values.

Pitching Notes: Smith, Watson, Miley, Jays, Kikuchi, Cobb

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 1:08pm CDT

The Cardinals are among the many teams pressing the Giants with interest in southpaw Will Smith, according to Mark Saxon of The Athletic (Twitter link). Another San Francisco lefty, Tony Watson, appears to be of secondary interest to the Cards, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Goold notes that the St. Louis club is interested in swapping slugger Jose Martinez for a lefty reliever, though it’s fair to wonder whether he’d be of much interest to the Giants.

White Sox Acquire Ivan Nova

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 12:30pm CDT

12:58am: Young hurler Yordi Rosario and $500K in international spending capacity are going to the Bucs, Heyman tweets. The deal has now been announced.

12:10pm: The Pirates will receive a “young pitcher” and an unstated amount of international bonus pool availability, per Jon Heyman of Fanced (via Twitter).

10:55am: The White Sox have struck a deal with the Pirates to acquire righty Ivan Nova, according to Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The return is not yet known; the deal will not be finalized until the teams have completed a review of medicals.

At first glance, this is quite an interesting swap owing to its potential downstream ramifications. Moving Nova will clear $8.5MM of payroll for the Bucs, who could put those funds to use in pursuing other players. The White Sox, meanwhile, have continued to make good on their stated intention to bolster their MLB roster in the near term.

Nova, who’ll turn 32 early next year, has been a sturdy rotation piece since landing in Pittsburgh at the 2016 trade deadline. He re-signed with the club in the ensuing winter on a three-year deal that expires at the end of the 2019 campaign.

Over the past two campaigns, Nova carries a 4.16 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 348 frames. He’s not generating as many grounders as he once did, but still has drawn worm burners on over 45% of the balls put in play against him. Meanwhile, Nova has been hurt by the long ball, allowing more than 1.4 per nine since the start of 2017.

It’s not a terribly exciting profile, but it’s one with value. Nova is still working in the 93 to 94 mph range with his pair of fastballs, while his swinging-strike rate has sat above eight percent — right in line with his career average. There’s good reason to anticipate that he’ll mostly be the same pitcher in 2019.

For the Chicago organization, adding Nova will help bolster a staff that has bid adieu to veteran James Shields. The club could certainly stand to add more arms, though it’ll also continue to decade at least two or three spots to its preexisting rotation options. Previously, the South Siders added veteran reliever Alex Colome to anchor the bullpen.

Interesting as it will be to see what else the White Sox do the rest of the way, the Pirates are now a potentially intriguing wild card on the market. Having dealt for Chris Archer and Keone Kela over the summer, the Bucs certainly seem positioned to add more pieces. After today’s trade, they’ll have more free payroll space to work with than they did at the outset of the offseason, even after having already signed Jung Ho Kang and Lonnie Chisenhall. Of course, moving Nova also leaves the Pittsburgh rotation with one less reliable arm. The organization could fill the opening from within (with Nick Kingham and eventually top prospect Mitch Keller) and/or pursue cheaper depth pieces via free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Outright Yadiel Rivera, Brett Graves

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 12:30pm CDT

The Marlins have outrighted infielder Yadiel Rivera and righty Brett Graves, according to Wells Dusenbury of the Sun-Sentinel (via Twitter). That creates two 40-man roster openings in advance of the Rule 5 draft.

Rivera, 26, got his first extended look at the MLB level last year, but managed only a .173/.269/.216 batting line in 160 plate appearances. Graves, meanwhile, received his first major-league stint with the Fish in 2018. He threw 33 1/3 innings of 5.40 ERA ball with 5.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

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