Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

MLBTR Poll: The Christian Yelich Extension

By Jeff Todd | March 4, 2020 at 7:33am CDT

By now you’ve surely seen the news: the Brewers are closing in on a new deal with superstar Christian Yelich. We’ll presume it’s completed for purposes of this post.

This contract arises even as the Brewers reach the final guaranteed year of their deal with long-time star Ryan Braun. Yelich had already supplanted him as the face of the franchis. Now, the younger outfielder will step into the top salary slot for the team.

Things can always change — lest we forget, the Brewers have at various points dangled Braun in trade talks in recent years — but Yelich seems destined to play in those sweet new Milwaukee unis for much of the rest of his career.

How to understand this deal? The 28-year-old Yelich was already under team control for three remaining seasons under the prior extension he inked as a member of the Marlins, so there wasn’t a huge rush. But the Brewers obviously felt now was the time to act if they were going to keep him around at a palatable price tag.

With seven years and (approximately) $187.25MM in new money, this deal provides Yelich with an eye-popping salary by any reasonable standard. But it’s a clear discount as compared to the values we saw in the free-agent market this winter. Consider that Anthony Rendon just sold the same portion of his career (age 30-36 seasons) for $245MM.

Great as Rendon is, he hasn’t matched Yelich in productivity. But the Brewers earned their discount by promising the money in advance — thus taking on quite a bit more risk. The most direct comparable, perhaps, is the early 2018 deal reached between the Astros and Jose Altuve when he was still two years away from the open market. Altuve only received five additional guaranteed years but got a heftier annual salary in his agreement (five years, $151MM).

It isn’t hard to understand the math for the team. On the player side, it’s hard to resist the temptation of a potential future bonanza. But Yelich was a long ways from the open market and quite a lot can change in the interim, as his freak late-2019 knee injury shows. There’s also some off-field value for both sides in striking this sort of bargain in advance. Yelich gets the comfort and assurance of knowing where he’ll play. No doubt he’ll also find it easy to strike whatever marketing deals he might like. And the club gets to promote the player as one of the franchise’s all-time greats while plotting its long-term roster moves around his presence.

So … win-win? Or is there a different way we ought to view this pact? (Poll link for app users.)

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Opener, Eovaldi, Martinez, Downs

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 12:42pm CDT

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom declined to speculate on the status of southpaw Chris Sale before getting final word from the doctors. Sale underwent an MRI today for a sore elbow. As Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times covers via Twitter, Bloom acknowledged “concern” but also said that, “hopefully, it is just a bump in the road.” The team does have some information beyond what is known publicly; as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter, team doctors have already had a look at the imaging. But it seems that we’ll have to await the assessment of Dr. James Andrews before learning of Sale’ fate.

White Sox Sign Zach Putnam

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 11:26am CDT

The White Sox have inked righty Zach Putnam to a minor-league pact, the club informed reporters including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He’ll head to the minors side of camp.

It has been a while since we’ve heard from Putnam. The 32-year-old was sidelined in 2018 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His attempted return last year was thwarted by a hamstring injury.

Putnam was quite an effective relief pitcher for the South Siders before the injuries intervened. Over 139 1/3 frames with the organization, accumulated between 2014 and 2017, he worked to a 2.71 ERA while carrying 9.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 along with a 47.6% groundball rate.

Rays Prospect Garrett Whitley Diagnosed With Facial Fractures

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 10:28am CDT

In a scary incident during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest, Rays propect Garrett Whitley was struck in the face by a foul ball that entered the team’s dugout. He has been diagnosed with “multiple facial fractures,” according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, on Twitter).

On the positive side, Whitley was in stable enough condition to spend the night at home rather than in a hospital bed. The 22-year-old outfielder did not lose consciousness at any point. It seems there’s reason to hope that he avoided the most grievous injuries that could conceivably have occurred.

That said, the early indication is that Whitley will be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. He’s slated to visit with a specialist to chart a path back to health. It seems fair to presume that the timeline will not really be evident for some time.

It’s particularly unfortunate timing for Whitley, who originally joined the Tampa Bay organization as the 13th overall pick of the 2015 draft. He was sidelined for all of 2018 due to a shoulder injury, then returned with a solid but unexceptional showing last year at the High-A level.

No doubt Whitley had hoped to make up for lost time in 2020. He’ll first have to get back to full health before tackling the upper minors. Fortunately, he’s still quite youthful. MLBTR extends its best wishes for a full and speedy recovery.

Chris Sale Headed For Elbow MRI

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 9:56am CDT

Star Red Sox lefty Chris Sale is slated to undergo an MRI on his elbow, skipper Ron Roenicke tells reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). At this point, the outlook isn’t known.

Sale reported soreness in the joint after throwing. He had dealt with some arm woes late last year, but seemed to be at full arm health as camp opened. Sale was delayed by illness, but the expectation was that he’d be able to ramp up as normal — just on a slight delay.

The results of the MRI will be sent to famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews for analysis. That’s alarming, at first glance, given that Andrews is known for performing so many Tommy John surgeries. That said, it’s also an obvious and sensible decision, given that the orthopedist treated Sale last season and is therefore intimately familiar with his medical situation.

There’s no reason to rush to judgment. But the situation is obviously concerning for a Boston organization that is entering an interesting and uncertain season. Just days ago, Sale told MLB.com that his arm felt good. Now, there’s sufficient cause for imaging.

Sale’s importance to the Red Sox largely goes without saying. The long-time ace is not only a key component of the rotation, but will occupy a big chunk of the team’s spending for the next several years. The extension he signed this time last year guarantees $145MM in salary from 2020 through 2024.

Cashman On Health Of Judge, Stanton; Rotation Needs

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 9:22am CDT

Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with the media this morning regarding the health uncertainty surrounding star sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. He also disputed recent reporting regarding the team’s efforts to shore up an injury-depleted rotation mix. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among those to cover the news (links to Twitter).

First and foremost, it now seems abundantly clear — if it wasn’t already — that the Yanks will go without their twin right-handed power towers for some time to open the season. Cashman didn’t say so expressly regarding Judge, but that’s evident in the fact that he’s still undergoing testing. Judge is said to be “responding well” to the treatment he has received, but his timeline remains uncertain.

As for Stanton, Cashman said plainly that it’s “unrealistic” to expect him to be in the Opening Day lineup. But the top New York baseball ops exec did say he believes the outfielder/DH can make it back to the majors during the month of April. Stanton is rehabbing a calf injury. It doesn’t seem to be a major malady but the team is understandably handling it with care after a 2019 season that was plagued by injuries (for both Stanton and the team).

The hope presumably remains that both of those players will end up being available for most of the coming season. But the Yanks have already endured some major blows to their pitching plans — especially, the loss of Luis Severino for the entire campaign.

The club has given public indication that it’s focused on its internal options. But it stands to reason that the organization will at least look for way to add depth. And there has been some suggestion that the Yankees might attempt to add a rotation piece via trade. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined a few hypothetical possibilities. Just yesterday, we saw reports of interest in Mets lefty Steven Matz.

Cashman squashed any hope of a surprising mid-spring, cross-town Matz swap — or any other near-term trade. “We have not talked to anybody,” the GM said of trade chatter involving the rotation. That obviously doesn’t rule out future conversations, but it seems at a minimum that the Yankees staff won’t feature any prominent new members in the coming days.

Camp Battles: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 7:39am CDT

The Blue Jays finally made some rotation investments this winter. Most of the money went to Hyun-jin Ryu, but Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson (the latter acquired via trade) each also enjoy sizable guarantees that lock them into the starting staff. With a $4.2MM arbitration deal, Matt Shoemaker is also slated for a rotation spot.

So what of all the arms the Jays have been accumulating of late? The club has loaded its roster with options. They’re now engaged in a sort of battle royale in camp, all striving to impress the Toronto brain trust. The fifth rotation spot is certainly the top prize to be claimed. But the bullpen mix is anything but settled, offering additional paths to the majors. And the Jays will also be lining up their depth chart in the upper minors. 40-man roster pressures could force the club to drop a few players, so the competitors face downside scenarios as well.

Here’s the slate of candidates …

Trent Thornton: The 26-year-old held down a rotation spot last year, ultimately throwing 154 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball in his debut campaign. He entered camp as the odds-on favorite and is probably the sturdiest candidate with a solid-but-not-exceptional minor-league track record, varied pitch mix, and full season of durable MLB work on his resume.
Shun Yamaguchi: The long-time Japanese star will be on the MLB roster in some manner after signing a two-year deal. He was a highly effective starter in Nippon Professional Baseball just last year, but also has spent a lot of time working at the back of a bullpen.
Anthony Kay: The well-regarded lefty had a nice showing at Triple-A last year after coming over via mid-season trade and was rewarded with a late-season promotion. His full 2019 totals from the upper minors — 133 2/3 innings, 2.96 ERA, 9.1 K/9 vs. 3.8 BB/9 — suggest that Kay is just about ready for a full big-league audition.
Jacob Waguespack: Yet another recent acquisition who got his first shot in the majors last year with the Jays, Waguespack had to be pleased with his initial showing (4.38 ERA, 63:29 K/BB in 78 innings). His deep pitch mix and general track record present a profile roughly similar to that of Thornton.
T.J. Zeuch: Yep, Zeuch also just saw his first MLB action last year, though he’s a homegrown product and only threw 22 2/3 frames in the majors. The sinkerballer spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.69 ERA in 78 frames while generating a 57.1% groundball rate but just 4.5 K/9. Zeuch did show that he can get some swings and misses (9.9%) in the majors, it’s fair to note.
Sean Reid-Foley: The former second-round draft pick has struck out 10.1 batters per nine in his minor-league career. Unfortunately, he has never really sorted out his walk issues, having dished out 86 free passes in 120 2/3 total innings last year. Reid-Foley spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he coughed up 6.47 earned runs per nine over 89 frames.
Ryan Borucki: Still just 25 years of age, Borucki had a nice 2018 big-league debut. But after 17 starts of 3.87 ERA ball in his rookie campaign, the southpaw stumbled through an injury-limited 2019 season. Borucki surely would’ve been given every chance to make a run at a rotation job in camp but has unfortunately been halted by ongoing elbow issues. He’ll need to get healthy to put himself back on the map.
Wilmer Font: Font is something of a grizzled journeyman already at 29 years of age. He has already appeared with seven MLB clubs, including five in the past two seasons. Font started 14 games last year for the Jays but threw only 39 1/3 innings in his 23 total appearances in Toronto. While he has plenty of experience in the minors as a true starter, Font likely factors as a possible opener or spot start candidate rather than a true competitor for the fifth rotation opening.
Yennsy Diaz: Diaz was rewarded with one MLB appearance last year after a strong season at Double-A (144 1/3 innings, 3.74 ERA, 7.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9). The 23-year-old would need to wow in camp. He’s likelier to continue developing in the minors.
Tom Hatch, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Julian Merryweather: These four righties all hold 40-man roster spots and have yet to debut in the majors. The first three haven’t yet reached Triple-A, while Merryweather is coming off of an injury riddled 2019 season.
Nate Pearson: Soon enough. Other non-roster players in camp include MLB veterans Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole, though neither seems likely to have a realistic shot at a rotation job out of the gates.

Theo Epstein: Cubs Will “Be Very Objective” At Trade Deadline

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2020 at 8:43pm CDT

You’ve heard by now that the Cubs didn’t exactly turn in an active offseason. Despite entering the winter with talk of change, the club largely picked around the edges and ended up sticking with its existing veterans.

That doesn’t mean the status quo will hold indefinitely. If anything, it seems the pressure will be applied right out of the gates to a roster now overseen by rookie skipper David Ross. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein made clear he’s ready to act at the trade deadline if things don’t go as hoped.

Epstein says the Cubs will “have to be very objective about what we have” during the summer trade period. That’s always the case, to some degree, but it certainly sounds as if the Chicago organization will be applying a rather stringent standard to its buy/sell analysis come July.

“In the middle of this season, if we have a legit World Series contender, that is really meaningful,” said Epstein. “But if we don’t, you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months.”

You need not read through the lines too finely to get the gist. The Cubs are looking at a two-year window on some key players. They’re not interested in waiting until there’s just one season of control left before selling.

Clearly, the hope had been to strike a deal in the just-completed offseason. The team wasn’t able to find a sensible arrangement, but could be more aggressive in shopping players this summer if it’s not in the position it hopes for.

Most interesting of all may be Epstein’s framing of the choice. The standard he poses — “legit World Series contender” — is a fairly lofty one.

What if the Cubs are in a competitive postseason position, but don’t quite seem primed for a serious run at a championship? That’s not clear just yet — and will surely be the subject of close analysis by the organization. But Epstein’s comments make clear, at minimum, that the team has already contemplated scenarios in which it’d engage in a mid-season sell-off of some kind.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the club is pressed up to the competitive balance tax line. It was already fair to wonder, on the heels of a winter of austerity, whether the team would stretch its internal payroll for mid-season additions unless it found itself in a truly compelling position.

Blue Jays Focused On “Development” Of Nate Pearson

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2020 at 6:16pm CDT

It’s never wise to get too excited over a few spring outings. But already hyped Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson has been awfully impressive, racking up six strikeouts in three hitless innings while pumping triple-digit heat. Suppose he keeps this up?

Toronto GM Ross Atkins faced the question today: is there any chance that Pearson shows so much that he cracks the Opening Day roster? As Arden Zwelling of the Sportsnet.ca tweets, Atkins didn’t exactly offer a direct answer to that question … though his words certainly suggested that the club is not likely to deviate from its pre-spring plan.

Per Atkins, the Jays “are entirely focused on [Pearson’s] development. And a big part of his development is ensuring he has ever chance to increase that workload in a logical and smart way.”

That’s a nod to the fact that Pearson, one of the game’s very best pitching prospects, has still not thrown more than 101 2/3 innings in a professional campaign owing to an injury-busted 2018 season. And he only made it to Triple-A for three starts.

The Atkins comment may be oblique, but it seems there’s only one reasonable interpretation. If Pearson still requires “development” and a planned-out workload expansion, he’s not going to be considered for an Opening Day gig. As Zwelling wrote recently, the original plan was for Pearson to open at Triple-A. Nothing about what Atkins said today suggests any other outcome.

We have seen teams take differing approaches to situations such as this. Quite a few organizations have declined to change their plans even after watching a breakout Spring Training from a top prospect, resisting the allure in favor of service-time and other considerations. See, e.g., the Cubs and Kris Bryant. But that’s not an inevitable outcome. Last season, the Padres decided to carry Fernando Tatis Jr. north out of camp. Seven years ago, the dearly departed Jose Fernandez forced the Marlins’ hands.

In this case, fans that pine for a bold decision from the Blue Jays front office are almost certain to be disappointed — at least in the short run. The Jays did make some long-awaited rotation additions over the winter, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring hole in the staff at the moment. If circumstances warrant, it stands to reason that Pearson could push into the MLB picture later this year. In the meantime, Toronto fans will have to hope that the patience pays off — all while enjoying some of the other intriguing young players on the roster.

Dodgers Outright Yadier Alvarez

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2020 at 4:35pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that righty Yadier Alvarez has been outrighted after clearing waivers, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to tweet. He had been designated for assignment recently.

Alvarez lost his 40-man spot after some shoulder issues cropped up. It’s unclear as of yet what his health outlook is. Any injury issues would only add to the slate of challenges facing the youngster, who’ll turn 24 later this week.

Once considered a blue-chip pitching prospect, Alvarez has long dealt with control issues and slid off track in 2019. He only made two appearances last year while struggling with injury and disciplinary issues.

Alvarez has yet to appear in the majors. Based upon the history to this point, it seems unlikely he’ll reward the team for its up-front investment ($16MM, which was effectively doubled by tax obligations). Still, the Dodgers will presumably be glad to have the chance to hang onto the remaining upside in Alvarez’s powerful right arm. Better still, the team can work to get him on track without tying up a roster spot.

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