Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates
Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.
Here’s more from the central divisions:
- The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
- While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ‘Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
- The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
- Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
- The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
- Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
- Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
- Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.
Pitching Notes: Lowe, Red Sox, Marlins, O’s, O’Day, Mets, Miller
Free agent righty Mark Lowe is “in active talks with multiple teams” and could be nearing a decision, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The Mariners have some interest in a reunion, tweets MLB.com’s Greg Johns, though as he notes it’ll take much more than the minor league pact that brought Lowe to Seattle last winter.
Here’s the latest pitching chatter around the league:
- The Red Sox are receiving interest in starters Wade Miley and Joe Kelly as well as Clay Buchholz, Crasnick reports on Twitter. Boston is prepared to “listen to trade pitches” on their arms. Jon Heyman hears the same and notes that the club is interested in adding relievers. (Twitter link.)
- Miley is among the pitchers that could be pursued by the Marlins, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. In free agency, Miami’s targets include Ian Kennedy — as we heard earlier today — as well as Yusmeiro Petit, who’d presumably be a swingman option.
- The Orioles will likely add another pen arm even if they wrap up a deal with Darren O’Day, Crasnick tweets. One possibility is southpaw Tony Sipp, per the report, who figures to draw rather wide interest.
- Speaking of O’Day, the key point of separation between the Orioles and Nationals has been Baltimore’s willingness to guarantee a fourth year, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. The Nats were offering a better AAV, but only over three years.
- The Mets are “keeping an eye” on the top of the still-available relief market, per assistant GM John Ricco (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin, on Twitter).
- Some in the Braves organization believe that the team ought to hold onto Shelby Miller, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. Atlanta is asking both for a young, “impact bat” as well as a “Major League-ready starting pitcher” in trade talks, per the report.
Tigers Sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The Tigers have announced the signing of catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter links). GM Al Avila said that the Munsey Sports Management client will have an opportunity to compete for a position backing up presumptive starter James McCann.
Detroit will be committed to Saltalamacchia for only one year at the MLB minimum rate. He’ll still earn a healthy $8MM this year, however, as the Marlins are still paying down the rest of the free agent contract he signed with the team.
Salty, who’ll turn 31 early in the season, lost his spot in Miami last year after a rough 2014 campaign and slow start. He landed with the Diamondbacks, putting up a strong .251/.332/.474 slash in 194 plate appearances. The switch hitter has historically been quite excellent against right-handed pitching, making him a nice potential complement to the righty McCann.
Free Agent Profile: Ian Desmond
Ian Desmond is the best shortstop available on the open market, but he comes with plenty of risk.
Strengths/Pros
Delivering power from an up-the-middle defensive position is probably Desmond’s single standout trait. The 30-year-old has averaged 22 long balls annually since the start of his breakout 2012, and he’s done that consistently (ranging from 19 to 25) rather than relying on a single outlying season.
Desmond’s overall power production is equally strong, which has continued to be true despite a dip in 2015. Even in that down year, his .151 ISO landed right at league average and checked in at fourth among qualifying shortstops. Though Desmond began and ended the year with rough stretches, he managed to put up a .185 ISO over the second half owing to a blistering August that showed there’s still some juice in his bat.
That fairly steady pop has made the 30-year-old a strong overall contributor on offense. In spite of a propensity for the strikeout, he’s also quietly raised his walk rate to near the league average. Desmond picked up three straight Silver Slugger awards from 2012 through 2014, and owns a .264/.317/.443 since he began his breakout in 2012. While that line was down overall in 2015, his .307 BABIP did fall shy of his career .322 mark and he showed more life at the plate at times later in the season.
On the defensive side of the equation, Desmond has rated as an approximately average shortstop — by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR — in the aggregate over the past three years. While he’s not nearly as smooth (or as valuable) with the glove as some of the league’s true magicians, Desmond’s powerful and aggressive approach to the position remains effective. He has excellent range and a cannon for an arm.
While he’s not a top stolen base threat — he’s probably a candidate for 15-to-20 swipes a year moving forward — Desmond is among the game’s most skilled baserunners. By measure of Fangraphs’ BsR statistic, he rated 11th in the game last year in total contributions on the basepaths and falls within the 25 most productive runners league-wide over the past three seasons combined.
It’s worth noting also that, while Desmond has had his ups and downs, his physical skills remain elite. For instance, MLB recently released an interesting list of true “five-tool” players, based on several StatCast measurables, which puts Desmond alongside some truly outstanding names.
On top of these direct inputs, Desmond contributes in more subtle ways, too. He’s widely credited for his accountability, hard work, and clubhouse presence. For but one example of the many pieces written on the veteran’s leadership, check out this article regarding his influence over young Nationals star Bryce Harper.
Weaknesses/Cons
While there’s a lot to commend Desmond, he undeniably comes with some serious questions. At the plate, the major issue is contact. Desmond’s strikeout rate took a jump before 2014 and has hovered just shy of the 30% mark since.
Plenty of players have thrived with that kind of swing-and-miss in their game, but it’s an increasing concern, especially given that it has coincided with a broader downturn. It’s hard to ignore the fact that Desmond is coming off of an 83 wRC+ campaign, or that he’s declined in overall batting production for three years in a row. Power, as noted above, is a notable strength but Desmond’s ISO has also fallen off, and any further erosion would seriously hamper his value.
I mentioned BABIP above, and that stat can be an indicator of luck. But Desmond has a high career mark because of hard contact and speed, and there are some indications that his 2015 dip wasn’t just the product of circumstance. Desmond lost about four percentage points in hard contact in 2015, even as his soft-contact rate jumped by an even greater amount. He’s hitting more infield flies and grounders than ever.
Desmond also showed a newfound susceptibility to same-handed pitching. In the past, Desmond had neutral platoon splits (2013-14) or was so good against both that it didn’t much matter (2012). But last year, his OPS against righties was over 100 points south of the damage he inflicted against lefties. To be fair, that’s not necessarily a huge problem so much as a possible erosion of an area that had been a strength.
There’s concern, too, on the defensive side. Despite his excellent tools at short, Desmond has always been error prone and probably always will be. That tendency was on full display early in 2015, drawing plenty of attention, and is something that a signing team will need to be prepared to experience. Desmond’s error tally has grown every year since 2012.
Despite the down year, Desmond received and turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals. That means that his new team will need to part with a draft pick to sign him.
Personal
Desmond and his wife, Chelsea, have three children and live in their native Sarasota, Florida. Desmond is known for being active in the community and has done charity work relating to neurofibromatosis and the Nationals’ Urban Youth Academy initiative.
Though he never suited up in Montreal — the club moved to D.C. just one year after he was drafted — Desmond was the last player left from that earlier epoch. The mutual respect between Desmond and the only professional team he’s known is readily apparent; GM Mike Rizzo called him “the rock of the organization,” while Desmond said he’s “extremely proud” to have been a National.
Market
Once the internal valuations are made, free agency is a complicated game with many moving parts and outside influences. Some best-in-class players can avoid that, to an extent, because the market is willing to wait on their decision. But while Desmond is the premier shortstop available, that doesn’t seem to be the likely course for him.
Given all the complications surrounding his value, teams are likely to weigh a signing of Desmond along with other possibilities — especially since he’ll require draft pick forfeiture. There are some other viable shortstops on the market, including Asdrubal Cabrera and bounce-back veterans such as Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins. And, of course, the trade market is always a factor.
With several outstanding young shortstops ascending to the majors in recent years, the demand side of the equation isn’t terribly strong. The Padres may be the best fit on paper after clearing salary in the Craig Kimbrel trade, while the White Sox, Twins, and Mets also could be in the market at short. It’s still unclear, though, whether any of those clubs will want to spend top dollar on Desmond, particularly given that several have plausible shortstops of the future moving through their farms.
Otherwise, it’s not obvious where Desmond could land, though there are a few clubs that could make some theoretical sense in the right circumstances. The Braves, for instance, might be an under-the-radar possibility if they were to trade Erick Aybar and could get value in a deal. The Rockies would also be a surprise, but there’s at least some opening (however unlikely) given the uncertainty surrounding Jose Reyes. A return to the Nationals can’t be ruled out entirely, particularly if Desmond’s market collapses and he’s forced into a pillow contract.
Expected Contract
Comparable free agents are hard to come by. Jhonny Peralta got four years and $53MM coming off of a PED suspension. That seems somewhat on the light side for Desmond, but isn’t an implausible figure if demand never comes to fruition. Reyes scored $106MM over six seasons, but Desmond seems unlikely to warrant a sixth year at this stage. Indeed, if anything, the lack of numerous obvious suitors could hold him to a four-year deal. All said, though, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes.
My best guess is that Desmond will find a fifth guaranteed year, but won’t get both that and a premium annual salary. Despite being a big fan of Desmond’s, personally, I find myself a bit bearish on his free agent outlook and will predict he lands a five-year, $70MM deal.
Marlins Name Barry Bonds Hitting Coach
DEC. 4: The Marlins have now officially named Bonds their new hitting coach, with Menechino assuming the role of assistant hitting coach.
DEC. 1, 12:07pm: Bonds “tentatively plans” to take the job, Nightengale tweets, though negotiations are not yet wrapped up.
11:28am: The Marlins have been pursuing legendary-but-controversial slugger Barry Bonds to serve in a coaching capacity with the club, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported yesterday. Miami has now extended him a formal offer and is awaiting a decision, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter.
If Bonds joins the organization, he’d serve as a co-hitting coach with incumbent Frank Menechino, according to Heyman. That’s somewhat unusual in that neither would, apparently, be the assistant to the other, but presumably represents the team’s attempt to strike a balance in doling out job titles and responsibilities.
The two sides are said to be close to reaching an arrangement after holding extensive talks in recent weeks, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (Twitter links). At this point, it seems, the only question is whether Bonds is willing to move to Miami and take on the demands of the position.
Obviously, the possibility of a hitting coach hiring doesn’t normally draw many headlines. But in this case, the name under consideration is of particular importance. Bonds, of course, hit more home runs than any player in MLB history and came closer than anyone to eclipsing Babe Ruth in total wins above replacement. Indeed, he might have done just that had he continued his career past a 2007 campaign in which he put up a .480 OBP. But Bonds had become a toxic asset by that point — he was embroiled in PED controversy, though he ultimately was unsuccessful in proving a collusion case — and has been frozen out of the Hall of Fame thus far despite his historic excellence.
The Fish, then, would be making a highly significant move in bringing Bonds back into the baseball fold. He has already increased his public exposure and engagement with the sport recently — including serving as a spring instructor with the Giants — and the rehabilitation efforts of Alex Rodriguez and Mark McGwire have probably also cleared a path. But it would still make for a major point of transition if Bonds were to put on a uniform again.
From a team-specific perspective, Bonds is obviously as knowledgeable about the craft of hitting as anyone and is said to have genuine interest in coaching. Adding his outsized personality carries some risk, of course, to say nothing of the intense media coverage his presence will generate (at least initially). But Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is said to have developed a “friendship” with the now-51-year-old, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and obviously appreciates the broader dimensions of the move. Notably, the club has already installed former Yankees legend Don Mattingly as its skipper and brought back Ichiro Suzuki as he pursues the 3,000 hit milestone.
White Sox Sign Dioner Navarro
The White Sox continued to reshape their catching corps on Friday, officially announcing the signing of veteran switch-hitter Dioner Navarro to a one-year, $4MM contract.
Chicago has now completed a total overhaul of its backstop situation this winter. The club signed Alex Avila to a one-year deal, non-tendered Tyler Flowers last night, and has now brought in Navarro to share time with his fellow free agent signee.
Navarro, a client of MDR Sports Management, served as the Blue Jays’ primary receiver in 2014 after signing a two-year deal. He put up a solid .274/.317/.395 slash with 12 home runs. But he lost his starting role last year when the Jays added Russell Martin. In his 192 turns at the plate in 2015, Navarro slashed .246/.307/.374, which was still good for an 88 OPS+.
On the defensive side of the ledger, Navarro was one of the league’s worst-rated pitch framers in 2014. But he’s generally rated more as a below-average framer than an awful one, and he returned to that status last year. More broadly, Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Navarro right at league average in terms of overall performance behind the plate.
It remains to be seen exactly how the South Siders will deploy this two-backstop unit, but presumably both were enticed to join the team by the promise of significant time. Avila, who hits from the left side, is much more productive against right-handed pitching, slashing .251/.348/.423 over his career with the platoon advantage. The opposite is true of Navarro, who has hit lefties to the tune of .270/.336/.439. GM Rick Hahn would surely be thrilled to get that kind of combined production from the position for a limited overall investment.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the agreement (on Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
White Sox Re-Sign Jacob Turner
The White Sox announced on Friday that they have re-signed the recently non-tendered Jacob Turner to a one-year contract that will pay the right-hander $1.5MM.
It seems curious, at first glance, that Chicago declined to tender Turner a contract at yesterday’s deadline but then struck a deal with him today. Turner, after all, was projected to earn $1MM in arbitration this year, as it’s standard for players to receive an identical salary to the previous year after sitting out a season due to injury.
However, Turner’s situation was rather unique, as the former top prospect signed a Major League contract out of the draft (an outcome that is no longer possible under the since-revamped collective bargaining agreement). Turner’s big league deal out of the draft — he was selected ninth overall in 2009 — included a $4.7MM signing bonus, and an annualized portion of that sum has to be included when calculating his salary. As such, the White Sox and Turner have most likely split the difference between what he might’ve netted in arbitration and what the team would have filed.
The White Sox claimed Turner off waivers just over a month ago from the cross-town Cubs, who carried him for most of the season on the 60-day DL as Turner dealt with arm issues. Turner is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the club’s 40-man roster this spring or be exposed to outright waivers, but the Sox will hope that he can maintain better health in 2016 and realize some of the potential that once made Turner such a highly touted arm.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported the agreement (on Twitter).
Jeff Samardzija Has Offers Of $90-100MM
DEC. 3: An $18MM average annual value is the “going rate” for Samardzija, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago hears (Twitter link). A source confirmed to Levine that at least one team has offered Samardzija $90MM. It remains unclear which teams are involved at this level, but it would appear that Samardzija has at least a pair of quite strong offers in hand already as his camp gears up for the Winter Meetings.
DEC. 2: The representatives of free agent righty Jeff Samardzija are telling teams that the hurler already has at least one $100MM offer on the table, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Needless to say, that’s a huge number for a pitcher coming off a down year, but speaks to his popularity among scouts and executives.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his profile of the talented veteran, there’s a lot to like about Samardzija despite his ugly ERA last season. Dierkes foresaw a five-year, $80MM deal resulting.
To be sure, it once seemed plenty plausible to imagine Samardzija taking down nine figures in free agency. His outstanding 2014 season appeared to set the table for just that kind of payday, and the fact that he was traded for a premium prospect in Addison Russell confirmed that the market put a high value on his arm. And it’s often been noted that Samardzija comes with relatively low mileage.
Mariners Sign Nori Aoki
4:37pm: Aoki will receive a $5.5MM base salary, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). The contract contains a $6MM mutual option that will automatically vest if Aoki reaches an unspecified but “easily attainable” playing time figure (presumably, plate appearances). Aoki can also earn up to $1.5MM worth of incentives in each season of the contract.
By signing for $5.5MM, Aoki receives the exact same amount he’d have been guaranteed if the Giants had exercised his 2016 option. Of course, Aoki does come out ahead in this scenario, as he’ll pocket the $700K buyout that was already paid to him by the Giants. And, of course, he can surpass the $5.5MM figure via incentives, creating the opportunity to further distance himself from what he’d have earned by returning to San Francisco for a second season.
4:21pm: Jerry Dipoto’s ongoing efforts to create a more athletic outfield and bolster his club’s on-base percentage continued on Thursday, as the Mariners’ GM announced the signing of Nori Aoki to a one-year contract with a vesting/mutual option for the 2017 season. Aoki is represented by CAA Sports.
Aoki has spent four years in the majors after coming over from Japan. Now entering his age-34 season, he has consistently delivered average (or slightly better) offensive production with a high-contact, low-K, high-OBP approach. All told, he owns a .287/.353/.386 MLB batting line, and has never wavered much from that mark.
It had seemed for some time that Aoki would be spending this season back with the Giants, but the club paid him a $700K buyout rather than picking up a $5.5MM option. Aoki’s .287/.353/.380 slash last year was a virtually direct match for his career line, though it translates to a 112 wRC+ once the effects of playing in spacious AT&T Park are accounted for. But the veteran was less effective in the second half, and missed significant time with a concussion.
Now, it seems, Aoki is back to health. However, he’s still not without his limitations as a player. As the above-cited offensive numbers show, he’s not much of a power threat and has never again hit double-digit homers since his first season in the majors. Though UZR has consistently rated him as an above-average gloveman in the corner outfield, many have observed that he’s not an efficient or consistent route-taker and the DRS metric has identified a defensive dip in recent seasons. Aoki remains a twenty-steal threat, but Fangraphs’ BsR calculation pegs him as a below-average baserunner.
We heard just recently of Seattle’s interest in the veteran. As I noted at the time, the club’s overall outfield (and first base/DH) mix seemed a bit crowded. Following this week’s trade of Mark Trumbo, though, there’s now one less highly-compensated player in the mix.
By plugging in Aoki, Seattle now has three outfielders at the Major League level that hit from the left side, as he joins center fielder Leonys Martin and corner outfielder Seth Smith. Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz and fellow right-handed hitter Franklin Gutierrez are also under contract. New skipper Scott Servais will have plenty of platoon options available to him.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com first reported the signing (links to Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Darren O’Day
2:54pm: Industry expectation is that O’Day will secure a four-year deal that comes in a bit shy of Andrew Miller‘s $36MM pact, Crasnick now tweets, suggesting something in the range of $32-34MM.
DEC. 3, 1:59pm: Baltimore has been making contact with alternative free agent relievers, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (Twitter links), who suggests that could be an indication that the team “might not be optimistic” about its chances of re-signing O’Day. Meanwhile, the Nats, Dodgers, and Braves remain in the hunt, per the report, which notes that the veteran would like to continue pitching on the east coast.
DEC. 1: The Orioles have made a “competitive” bid for free agent reliever Darren O’Day, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. Baltimore appears to be one of the final teams under consideration for the veteran, though numerous others — the Nationals, Braves, Dodgers, and perhaps more — could still be involved, per the report.
While a signing timeline remains uncertain, O’Day has seen plenty of action over the early weeks of the offseason. He could reach an agreement before the Winter Meetings open on Monday, Connolly suggests.
The O’s have been in touch with O’Day’s representatives for some time, so the interest itself isn’t new. But Connolly writes that this is the team’s first formal offer to the late-inning ace. And its apparent competitiveness also seemingly suggests that the team is more serious about retaining O’Day than had perhaps been expected.
O’Day is the top-ranked reliever on the free agent market, per MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. While he’s entering his age-33 campaign, O’Day’s sub-2.00 ERA over the last four seasons makes him an obvious target for many teams looking at pen upgrades.