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Twins Extend Miguel Sano

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JANUARY 14: The Minnesota organization has now announced the deal.

JANUARY 10: The Twins have inked third baseman Miguel Sano to a three-year extension, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The deal guarantees Sano $30MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That includes a $3MM buyout on a 2023 option, which is priced at $14MM. Sano is a client of the Cobb Eddy Sports Group.

Sano entered the offseason in the 4+ service class. Rather than a second trip through the arbitration process — he had been projected to take home a $5.9MM contract — Sano will lock in his final two arb-eligible campaigns while giving the Minnesota organization control over two would-be free-agent seasons.

While there’s some upside to be gained for organization, it’s also a notable vote of confidence in the 26-year-old slugger. Long lauded as a major talent, Sano broke into the league in a big way and was generally very productive with the bat over his first three seasons in the majors. But he literally and figuratively limped through a miserable 2018 season. After an offseason of work created a sense of optimism, Sano was then slowed at the start of 2019 due to an Achilles injury. When he finally returned to action last spring, it was far from clear what to expect.

As it turned out, Sano turned in his most productive offensive run since his rookie showing back in 2015. Over 439 plate appearances, he slashed .247/.346/.576 and socked 34 long balls. Statcast figures gave ample cause to buy into the idea that he was back in top form at the plate. Sano led all of baseball in hard contact percentage and graded in elite company in just about all of the batted-ball measures.

There are some negatives, even in the hitting arena. Sano swings and misses quite a bit, even by today’s standards. He has consistently struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and seems a safe bet to continue to do so. Sano does draw a decent number of walks — about a dozen per hundred plate appearances historically and in 2019 — but isn’t as dramatically good in that regard as he is dramatically woeful in terms of strikeouts. Perhaps there’s still some reason to hope he can make strides in the plate-discipline arena, since Sano obviously has an eye and must be pitched carefully. But as things stand, he’s dependent upon sustaining a strong batting average on balls in play to prop up his on-base numbers. So long as he’s stinging the ball, that’ll likely work out well enough, but it’d be nice to see some closing of the yawning gap between his strikeout and walk rates.

Supposing that the Twins think Sano can repeat or even expand upon his offensive output of 2019, that’s a heck of a starting point. His 137 wRC+ matched that of Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien, making them the next two players out of the top twenty slots leaguewide among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Of course, Semien produced nearly three times as much fWAR as Sano due to the variety of factors that limit the latter’s value.

First and foremost is the question of glovework. Sano has a huge arm but isn’t exactly the most mobile of players with his massive frame. He has at times graded out between slightly below average and very poor in terms of overall defensive performance at third, by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Both were down on his work last year, especially UZR. But Statcast’s newly devised defensive grading system isn’t quite so negative, marking Sano as a below-average but hardly disastrous performer at the hot corner.

Even if you take a somewhat more optimistic view of things, it seems safe to say Sano isn’t likely to be more than a palatable defender at third over the life of this contract. And with his big frame and durability concerns, there’s risk he won’t even be that. Of course, it’s still possible that he could shift across the diamond — as soon as 2020, if the Twins land Josh Donaldson — and the DH slot will open up at some point if and when Nelson Cruz retires or heads elsewhere. None of that will resolve Sano’s longstanding woes on the basepaths, where he’s a consistent negative, though Statcast does indicate that Sano was once rather speedy and is still in range of average in average sprint velocity.

Ultimately, the Twins don’t need Sano to be a true superstar for this deal to work out. Picking up control over two of Sano’s potential prime hitting seasons delivers plenty of value upside. And while there are some downside scenarios, the overall guarantee just isn’t great enough to carry significant risk even to a lower-payroll outfit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

News & Notes On Astros Punishment

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If you missed it yesterday, the Astros sign-stealing scandal reached a breaking point. The organization was fined $5MM and lost its top two draft choices in each of the next two drafts. The club canned GM Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch after each received one-year league suspensions. Individual players were not punished. Former bench coach and current Red Sox manager Alex Cora awaits his fate.

We ran some polls on the punishment. You can add your opinion there. But don’t expect to hear from other organizations at this time. We also covered an apparent leaguewide gag order on the controversy that emerged last night through a curious club announcement from the Dodgers.

Let’s run through some other notes and reactions …

  • Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains how the draft situation will be resolved. Rather than simply striking the Astros’ picks from existence, and reducing the overall spending pool by a significant figure, MLB will bump every other team up a peg in the slotting system. That’ll result in only a relatively meager reduction in the total draft spending outlay that incoming professionals can receive. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com looks at the lost prospect value for the Astros. It’s reasonably significant, though it’s important to highlight the fact that the Houston club was already locked into a low choice for the coming season and seems highly likely (barring a change in organizational direction) to select down the line again in 2021. While there’s no questioning the impact to the overall slate of talent that the team will be able to pull from these two drafts, it’s not likely that the ’Stros will end up missing out on down-the-line superstars.
  • There’s still a lack of clarity regarding the near-term leadership of the Houston baseball ops department and dugout. In the front office, Crane says he’ll run things for the time being (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand; Twitter links). He also noted that he still employs someone who was brought in previously for GM interviews by other organizations — clearly, a reference to assistant GM Pete Putila. It stands to reason that Putila will be leaned upon heavily in the near-term, though the long-term plan remains to be seen. Feinsand further tweets that bench coach Joe Espada is “expected” to take over for Hinch. It’s fair to wonder whether these approaches are really set in stone. Crane said he was looking for a blank slate and said the team’s internal assessments were still ongoing. Perhaps there’s a path for Putila and/or Espada to take on expanded roles, but that’ll surely depend in no small part upon whether either ends up being implicated in whole or part in the scandal. And Crane will need to consider whether an immediate outside hire or two would be wise — a tough move at this late juncture of the offseason.
  • ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan examines the (still muted) reaction from around the game. It seems that other teams aren’t overly impressed by the seriousness of the sanctions, which were announced by Manfred in a conference call in which he also made clear that there was to be no public whining. But anonymous complaints are perhaps only beginning. Passan reports that those in other organizations feel the Astros — and Crane in particular — were able to orchestrate things to perfection. As we noted yesterday in our above-linked poll, Manfred cabined responsibility to the Astros’ baseball operations while specifically absolving Crane (and the team’s business side as well). And Crane got to put on a public show of shock and contrition, filling the airwaves with his emotional response and the drama of a live, public firing announcement.
  • That report mirrors the earlier trickles of reactions that we have seen. An unnamed top executive that spoke with ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn (Twitter link) explained why even the seemingly harsh sanctions weren’t really adequate. The impact on game and season/postseason outcomes is impossible to isolate but unquestionably significant. Quite a few opposing players surely missed out on earning opportunities, whether through missing postseason proceeds, dents to their statistical track record, and/or lost MLB opportunities. The same is true of rival organizations, though it seems in at least some cases they may also have misused technology — albeit not, so far as has been alleged, in anything like the manner the Astros did. None of that can be unwound, but it’s important perspective.
  • Additional top baseball decisionmakers spoke to that same point with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The damage is widespread. So is the blame, Rosenthal opines. While we’ll all have our preferred villains and heroes in the scandal, perhaps none but a few brave whistleblowers deserve anything approaching plaudits. If Luhnow’s punishment reflected the culture he created within the Houston organization, as much as anything, then perhaps Manfred carries an analogous responsibility for the sport’s overall spiral in this arena. Rosenthal says “this is Manfred’s sport,” hinting at a lack of foresight in rolling out replay streams and facilitating the rise of a generation of “general managers emboldened by analytics, all trying to outsmart one another.”

Orioles Outright Eric Hanhold

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The Orioles announced today that righty Eric Hanhold was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. He had recently been designated for assignment but did not draw interest from other organizations.

Hanhold already moved once via the waiver wire in recent months, when the Baltimore org claimed him last fall from the Mets. No doubt the O’s knew all along there may be a need for the roster spot, but felt there’d be a chance of stashing Hanhold if he cleared waivers.

Now, the 26-year-old University of Florida product will head to camp with a tougher path to the active roster. But he should have his chances in a wide-open Orioles pen situation.

Hanhold has only three big league appearances under his belt. The reliever has pitched to a 2.25 ERA in forty frames at the Double-A level but has not found as much success at the highest level of the minors. In 67 2/3 innings at Triple-A over the past two seasons, he carries a 5.32 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.

MLBTR Poll: The Astros Scandal

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It’s a rather ugly day for baseball, even if we saw it coming. The Astros’ video-aided sign-stealing effort had already been laid bare by video evidence. But all the underlying facts weren’t known. And it was far from clear how commissioner Rob Manfred would handle the punishment.

As it turns out, the Houston organization was hit with a $5MM fine (the maximum permissible) and the loss of four top draft choices. General manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were each suspended for a year. The team subsequently fired both men. Then-bench coach and current Red Sox manager Alex Cora also seems likely to be punished, though his precise comeuppance has yet to be determined pending an investigation into the Boston organization.

For full details on the team punishments, click here. In brief: Manfred found that a 2017 scheme to convey signs to batters in real-time “was, with the exception of Cora, player-driven and player-executed.” An ensuing effort “to decode signs using the center field camera was originated and executed by lower-level baseball operations employees working in conjunction with Astros players and Cora.” Punishing players was deemed “impractical given the large number of players involved, and the fact that many of those players now play for other Clubs.” That wasn’t the only reasoning, though. More relevant, Manfred said, was the fact that GMs and managers are made “responsible for ensuring that the players both understand the rules and adhere to them.”

So, our first poll question: was the assessment of a fine and taking of four top draft choices an appropriate punishment for the organization? Some around the game weren’t satisfied, but how do you see it? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

While he declined to pursue players — beyond the factors he noted, there’d have been major labor-relations implications and complications under the CBA — Manfred did still find that individual punishment was warranted for those in a position of added responsibility. Specifically, Luhnow and Hinch received personal punishment. (Cora, an active participant, presumably will as well.) Manfred did not find any reason to discipline or chastise Crane personally. To the contrary, he specifically cleared the owner of culpability. Evidently, the oversight responsibility concepts that undergirded the punishment of Hinch and (especially) Luhnow did not extend past the baseball operations department.

Whether there was any coordination or exchange of information between the league and the Astros regarding the firing of those two leaders is not known. But the team’s subsequent action certainly added quite some heft to the total blow that landed.  For full details on the firings, click here.

Luhnow disclaimed any knowledge of the schemes, though the report indicates he likely had some level of awareness of the team’s 2018 efforts. His statement cited the report’s reference to lower-level employee and player responsibility, though he also acknowledged and accepted his own failure of oversight. Luhnow was punished because he “failed to take any adequate steps to ensure that his Club was in compliance with the rules.” Manfred also blasted the culture that Luhnow created in the baseball operations department, a characterization that Crane disputed.

Ultimately, Luhnow was suspended for one year and dismissed from his position. Fair? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

As for Hinch, the circumstances were somewhat different. He was unquestionably aware that the sign-stealing efforts were ongoing and acknowledged as much in his statement. While he is said to have disagreed and at times even attempted to interfere with the stratagem, Hinch obviously did not utilize his authority or avail himself of the available means of halting the effort. In his statement after today’s outcome, he apologized for that failure.

Like the GM, Hinch received a one-year ban and ended up canned. Was this a just outcome? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Rays Sign Chris Herrmann

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The Rays announced today that they have signed catcher Chris Herrmann. His agreement on a minors pact was previously reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).

A trio of other players have also joined on with minors deals that include invitations to MLB Spring Training. Outfielder Ryan LaMarre and hurlers Aaron Slegers and D.J. Snelten will each be in camp.

Herrmann joins Kevan Smith as incoming backstops who’ll compete for spots on the depth chart. It’s possible the club could carry a third catcher on its active roster, given the presence of a 26th man, but otherwise Herrmann and Smith will face an uphill battle to unseat Michael Perez as the backup to Mike Zunino.

There’s some built-in advantage here for Herrmann: he’s a left-handed hitter (as is Perez) and has experience in the outfield, increasing his utility. The 32-year-old has also shown well at times with the bat, though he’s only a .205/.282/.344 hitter through nearly a thousand MLB plate appearances.

LaMarre will provide some outfield depth. The 31-year-old hasn’t seen much big league action. He carries a .281/.349/.415 batting line in 1,513 trips to the plate over parts of seven Triple-A seasons.

Both of the pitchers are 27 years of age. The right-handed Slegers spent last year with the Tampa Bay organization, making one MLB appearance and throwing 112 1/3 innings of 5.05 ERA ball at Triple-A. Snelten, a southpaw, worked in the indy ball ranks in 2019. Over twenty starts for the Chicago Dogs, he carried a 3.12 ERA with 112 strikeouts and 43 walks in 118 1/3 innings.

Tigers Sign Ivan Nova

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The Tigers announced that they have signed righty Ivan Nova. It’s a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee and $500K in incentives, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter), Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), and Robert Murray (Twitter link). To create roster space, lefty Matt Hall was designated for assignment.

Nova is an exceedingly reliable but not an especially upside-laden pitcher. He has been good for about thirty starts and 170+ innings of low-walk pitching annually over the past four seasons. But with a cumulative 4.31 ERA in that span, and a lengthy track record of below-average strikeout rates, Nova can’t be expected to do much more.

The question is whether Nova can even maintain that level of productivity. He just reached his 33rd birthday and sat below the 93 mph level with his four-seam fastball for the first time in 2019. Nova also is coming off of his worst campaign since 2015, turning in a 4.72 ERA after three-straight years in which he sat in the 4.14-4.19 band at season’s end. His strikeout rate dipped to lower than six per nine innings and Nova allowed more than 1.4 homers per nine for the third-consecutive year.

Despite some evidence of a downturn, Nova was mostly the same pitcher. More than anything, his proclivity to surrender runs may just have risen along with the leaguewide tide. His relatively hefty innings total also reflects the fact that he was allowed to oface opposing hitters for a third time more than was perhaps desirable. In 191 such plate appearances, batters slashed a robust .308/.374/.552.

For the most part, the Tigers can anticipate receiving a reasonable volume of palatable innings. The club obviously saw reason to pick up some sturdy frames in 2020 while waiting for their top-rated upper-level arms to finish off their development. Nova will suit that need at an affordable price. If all goes according to plan, he could even be cashed in at the trade deadline.

The addition of Nova could come at the expense of losing Hall. The 26-year-old southpaw could be targeted on the waiver wire by teams that fancy a shot at unlocking his upside. Hall has been knocked around in brief MLB action, but produces spin on his curveball at an elite rate and has shown strikeout ability in the upper minors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Fire Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch

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In the wake of severe MLB discipline arising out of the Astros sign-stealing scandal, team owner Jim Crane announced that he has fired both GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. It’s a stunning end to a notable tenure in Houston for both men.

The Astros organization has been a lightning rod ever since Luhnow took over in December of 2011. But the swings in fortunes have reached dizzying levels in recent months. The club bungled a self-created controversy even as it prepared for the World Series, then lost consecutive home games in spectacular fashion, thus failing to win a second title in a three-year span.

It turned out that was only the beginning. It started out as a normal-enough offseason — some change was afoot with top starter Gerrit Cole reaching free agency and Crane suggesting the team might tighten up payroll. But things took a calamitous turn when allegations emerged in mid-November that the Houston organization had improperly utilized technology to ascertain opposing teams’ signs and then convey them in real-time to Astros hitters during the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

The resulting league investigation unfolded even as public evidence emerged to fully confirm the claims. It became undeniably clear that the Astros had acted in a manner that fell well outside the traditional sign-stealing culture of the game and clearly broke the rules. Commissioner Rob Manfred had made clear previously that he’d come down hard on any teams that misused technology.

While a big punishment had been anticipated, this nevertheless rates as a momentous decision for the organization as well as for the game generally. The fallout will be immense and can’t be fully known at the moment.

From the Astros’ perspective, the firing unquestionably taints the team’s successes in recent years — even if Crane declined to acknowledge that fact in his press conference. And it raises huge questions about the future. It takes out the club’s baseball architect in Luhnow, even as his top understudies have already departed the organization. (Brandon Taubman was fired. Previously, David Stearns and Mike Elias left for GM jobs elsewhere.) There had already been some degree of uncertainty regarding the team’s precise direction this offseason and beyond. Now, the club’s top leaders are gone and more could still follow. Crane said he was still assessing the culpability of other personnel and deciding how to fill the void for the departing leaders. He’ll personally oversee baseball ops for the time being. Whether there’ll be an impact to the roster isn’t yet known.

Across the league, there’ll surely be a strong desire to avoid a similar fate. Available information and scrutiny — both publicly and within the game — are obviously reaching new heights. Manfred’s statement made clear that, despite the lack of a smoking gun linking Luhnow to the cheating effort, he and Hinch were being punished for overseeing a baseball operations department and uniformed staff that pursued it. As Crane told reporters today, it was obvious that both men were aware of and did not intervene to stop the sign-stealing. The onus will now be on other top organizational leaders to halt any untoward behavior, at risk of severe consequences.

Beyond that, any changes to the course of the Houston organization will obviously impact the broader player market and their competitors in the American League West. The organization’s philosophical approach and its near-term decisionmaking could well undergo change.

Baseball has long grappled with the cutthroat approach to roster building that Luhnow brought to the Astros. As an analytically focused executive who launched a full-blown tear-down/rebuild, that was somewhat inevitable. But the organization went to extremes to build what has been characterized as “an unprecedented player-development machine” — albeit one that also created “human costs.” The win-at-all-costs vibes left many feeling uneasy well before news emerged of actual rules violations.

Luhnow insists that he did not direct any cheating and wasn’t even aware it was occurring, as Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal reports (Twitter link). But the league investigation did find that Luhnow failed to take adequate action to ensure compliance with league rules — and that he had at least some amount of knowledge regarding the sign-stealing operation. Despite disavowing any intent to break the rules, Luhnow did state that he accepts responsibility for what went on during his stewardship of the organization’s baseball operations.

Luhnow’s baseball operations department carried an image akin to the unfeeling Soviet boxing-industrial complex portrayed in the Rocky series. But Hinch was no Ivan Drago. He and some of the team’s biggest stars put a much more personable face on the organization. He was by all appearances not only a high-quality skipper and tactician, but also a genuinely thoughtful and caring figure.

But that reputation, even if largely accurate, did not absolve Hinch of responsibility. Manfred’s report on the investigation’s findings makes clear that the manager knew what was going on. He’s said to have had some misgivings about the actions but obviously failed to act firmly to halt the operation, either by issuing clear orders to those theoretically under his command or by raising the matter to higher authorities. Hinch acknowledged as much in his own statement on the matter (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, on Twitter). Though he says he did not “endorse or participate in the sign stealing practices,” he acknowledges that he “failed to stop them.”

It’s a major shift for a Houston organization that had seemingly arrived at a winning formula. With Luhnow masterminding the talent flow and Hinch maximizing the pieces made available to him, the organization built a powerhouse that won the 2017 World Series, came up just shy in another, and reeled off three-straight 100-win regular seasons. Much was achieved and it seemed likely there was more success yet to come. Quite a lot of creative thinking and hard work went into the undertaking. But the wins will be remembered with an asterisk — in collective memory, if not in the actual record books — and the Astros will now embark upon a new era under new leadership.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Context For The 2020 Arbitration Class

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The just-finished flurry of arbitration news settled a bunch of price points. Some are reasonably notable; many were already largely anticipated and accounted for. More than ever before, the deals were closely fought (is it me or did they used to settle at rounder numbers?) and closely held (heaven forbid anyone learn anything any second before absolutely necessary). But at the end of the day, quite a few hit the books.

But what of the unfinished negotiations — those that did not come to resolution? I’m going to endeavor to give some context to the slate of arb-eligible players who’ve exchanged figures with their respective teams.

As you may have heard, or picked up from following along for some time, the arbitration process has evolved quite rapidly over the past several years. Once upon a time, there weren’t many hearings at all. There weren’t any in 2013 and we had only a few piddling disputes to be heard in 2014. The action picked up quite a bit in the ensuing winter, as 14 cases went to hearings — some for a decent bit of coin. But things went back on ice in 2016, when there were four hearings, none with more than $550K at stake.

Teams and players exchanged figures plenty often in those days. There were typically more than thirty unresolved cases when the mid-January deadline rolled around. And, clearly, some cases did go to hearings. But for most teams, there was a willingness to continue a dialogue well past the exchange of figures. In many situations, the exchange of figures was just a step towards a negotiated resolution.

The “file and trial” concept certainly existed in those days, but the majority of teams didn’t employ it. Now, it’s functionally universal. Many clubs will keep talking, but most will only do so if it involves future seasons beyond the one subject to the upcoming hearing.

Let’s take a closer look at the recent numbers to see this in action. After the dust settled yesterday, we were left with twenty unresolved cases — far fewer than would’ve remained un-done even a few years ago. It’s possible that all could go to hearings, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com suggests on Twitter, though surely there’ll be some kind of multi-year breakthrough in at least a few cases. That’s almost certainly what it’ll take to avoid a hearing, as we’ve seen a near-complete elimination of pure settlements after the exchange of figures.

Back in 2017, among the 29 instances of figure filing, seven were eventually tied up with single-season arb settlements. Three more involved arbitration-only extensions or option additions. There were four full-blown extensions. And just more than half of the cases went to trial, with the teams edging the players 8 to 7 in outcomes.

In the ensuing year, there was yet further creep. Among the 27 filing situations, all but five went to trial. (The players prevailed a dozen times.) One open matter was closed with a long-term extension, another was resolved by an arb-only deal, and three were settled in the traditional, one-year manner.

In 2019, there were only 14 cases in which figures were exchanged. Among them, only two were settled — both with contracts that included club options that created cost certainty in a future season. Two more involved significant, multi-year extensions. The balance went to hearings, with the players winning six of ten times.

The primary takeaway, then, is that the remaining contractual spreads are likely to go one way or the other — unless a multi-year arrangement of some kind can be arranged. That’ll actually be relatively more difficult now than before for a different reason. In 2020, six of the twenty filers are in their final season of arbitration eligibility. The prior classes had far fewer: 2 of 14, 2 of 27, and 4 of 29. Working out deals involving seasons of presumptive free agency is quite a bit more complicated.

So, is this an especially high-stakes year? In some regards, yes. It features the largest absolute case we’ve seen in some time in George Springer, whose filing figure of $22.5MM is a whopping $5MM north of the team’s counter. Million+ dollar spreads are fairly rare. Three were settled in 2017 (Drew Pomeranz, Pedro Strop, Jake Diekman). Two more settled in 2018; Springer also avoided a hearing, agreeing to a two-year deal. But Mookie Betts and Trevor Bauer both won trials that year with big money at stake. Bauer and Gerrit Cole repeated the feat in 2019. In 2020, there are three big-money cases, with Josh Hader and J.T. Realmuto joining Springer with voluminous spreads. There are also some big spreads in relative terms. The Brewers’ two open cases — with Hader and fellow lefty Brent Suter — each features 50+% spreads (as against the team number) in value. We’ve rarely seen that kind of spread, though there was one greater that went to trial: Dellin Betances, in 2017. He lost that memorable case. But his agents at Excel are still willing to duke it out; per Passan, via Twitter, they lead the way with six of the still-open cases this winter.

From a global perspective, there isn’t necessarily more at stake than has been the case in recent years. The total player demands this year tally $128.4MM, with the team counters amounting to $108.2MM — good for a $20.2MM gap. There was obviously far less at stake last year with so few cases, though the total ~18% net spread between the sides is about the same. The tallies look different in prior years. In 2018, we saw nearly $140MM in demands but only a $18MM+ gulf, so the spread was a narrower 15.25%. The cases were smaller on average in 2017, with a file/counter split of $113.55MM and $95MM, but that was good for nearly a 20% divide — the largest of the four-season sample.

All things considered, it seems that the 2020 arbitration hearing class is more a culmination of recent developments than terra incognita. Perhaps it will function as a new standard for years to come. Then again, as the above exercise shows us, the tendency always is one of change. It’s possible we’ll begin to see new trends emerging; some may now be hiding in plain sight while we focus on those that have already been identified.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez

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The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.

Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).

Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.

Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.

The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.

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