Brayan Bello To Begin Season On Injured List
March 11: Bello will indeed begin the season on the 15-day IL, Cora announced this morning (via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). He’ll continue building arm strength with an eye toward an early April return.
March 8: Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has not yet pitched a game this spring, as shoulder soreness has kept him on the shelf. Last weekend, the young right-hander expressed optimism that he would still be able to make the Opening Day roster, telling reporters (including MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) that he was “right on track” as long as he could continue with the rehab work he was doing.
Today, however, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that Bello looks “increasingly” unlikely to break camp with the Red Sox. According to manager Alex Cora, the righty is making good progress but remains behind schedule. At this point, it’s hardly surprising that Bello could start the season on the IL. Opening Day is less than three weeks away, and he has not seen any game action in spring training.
In three MLB seasons, Bello has not yet lived up to his top prospect billing. Still, he has pitched like a capable back-end starter, putting up a 4.42 ERA and 4.14 SIERA over 71 games (69 starts). He has averaged just over 5 1/3 innings per start and just over 2.1 FanGraphs WAR per 162 innings pitched. The Red Sox would surely be happy if Bello could give them exactly that in 2025, but he still has the potential to be even better. He won’t turn 26 until May, and his upside is undeniable. He leads with a 95.7 mph sinker, helping him induce groundballs at a high rate, while his slider and changeup give him two good weapons for generating whiffs. In 2022, the prospect evaluators at Baseball America, FanGraphs, and The Athletic all described him as a potential mid-rotation arm.
If Bello does indeed begin the season on the IL, MLB.com’s Ian Browne infers that either Richard Fitts or Quinn Priester could fill in as Boston’s number five starter. The winner of that battle would slot in behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, and Lucas Giolito. Kutter Crawford should provide rotation depth at some point in 2025, but he is nursing a knee injury and is further behind than Bello this spring. Cooper Criswell is another arm on the 40-man with starting experience, but he seems to be lower down the depth chart than Fitts and Priester, both of whom have seen better results (albeit in a minuscule sample size) this spring.
The error bars are wide for the Red Sox’s rotation in 2025. If the most important arms stay healthy, Boston could have one of the best rotations in the sport. On the other hand, almost every starter the Red Sox have – including Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and Patrick Sandoval – comes with some degree of injury risk. Bello has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons, but none of those IL stints lasted longer than three weeks. If Bello needs to miss time, the Red Sox will hope that trend of brief IL stints continues in 2025.
Gerrit Cole To Have Tommy John Surgery
The Yankees have announced that ace Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. The team will provide further updates following the surgery, but there is no doubt that the 2023 AL Cy Young winner will miss the entire 2025 season.
Cole, 34, went for diagnostic tests on his elbow last week. He told reporters he was “concerned” by the results of the initial testing but expressed some hope that a second opinion could assuage the worst of his concerns. Unfortunately, Cole’s appointment today with Dr. ElAttrache only confirmed that the right-hander needs Tommy John to repair a torn UCL in his pitching arm.
This is a crushing blow to the reigning AL champions. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 12-18 months. New York survived without Cole for just under three months last season when elbow inflammation kept him out until mid-June. This year, the Yankees will have to get by without their number one starter at all. They must be glad they won the bidding war to sign Max Fried this offseason, inking the two-time All-Star to an eight-year, $218MM deal. The southpaw will now lead a rotation that also features Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Rounding out the starting five to begin the year will likely be Marcus Stroman (whom the Yankees are surely glad they didn’t trade earlier this offseason) and top pitching prospect Will Warren. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, will miss the beginning of the year with a lat strain but will hopefully return sometime in June. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco is another arm who could offer rotation depth.
That group of arms could still make up a perfectly capable starting rotation for a contending club, but the error bars are much wider now, and there is no question the Yankees are a much less dangerous World Series contender without Cole. It doesn’t help that they’re also dealing with injury issues on the other side of the ball. Veteran bats Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) and DJ LeMahieu (calf) are likely to miss the beginning of the season.
Presumably, the Yankees will consider their options to upgrade their rotation externally. Available free agents include Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Spencer Turnbull, although none of those names offer anything close to the star power the Yankees lost. Thus, if GM Brian Cashman wants to find a top-of-the-rotation replacement for Cole, he’ll have to turn to the trade market. Some of the most interesting potential trade candidates include Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, Luis Castillo of the Mariners, and Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres. The most recent reporting on all of those pitchers suggests that an offseason trade is unlikely, but a desperate Yankees team could certainly change that.
The Yankees had a chance to part ways with the six-time All-Star this offseason when Cole triggered his opt-out clause in November. The team could have blocked his opt-out by adding another year and $36MM to the end of his contract, which they chose not to do. However, the two sides ultimately agreed to stick together as if Cole had never triggered his opt-out in the first place, with the Yankees keeping him around for the four years and $144MM remaining on his original guaranteed deal. In other words, while the Yankees may have had their concerns about Cole’s longevity, they could not have been overly worried that his elbow troubles would rear their ugly head again so soon.
From 2017-22, Cole led all pitchers with 173 starts and 1070 2/3 innings pitched. He dealt with some elbow inflammation in 2016, but from then until 2024, his only IL stint was due to COVID-19 protocols. In an age of ever-increasing arm injuries and ever-decreasing inning counts, Cole has been a workhorse, topping 200 innings in a season six times in the last ten years. Sadly, his run of healthy seasons came to an end last year, and this coming season will be the first since 2012 in which Cole does not pitch. Instead, he will turn his focus toward his rehab in an effort to miss as little of the 2026 campaign as possible.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Yasmani Grandal Reportedly Turned Down Offer From Braves “About A Month Ago”
According to reporter Francys Romero, the Braves made an offer to free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal “about a month ago.” Needless to say, Grandal, who remains unsigned, turned down the proposed deal. The terms of Atlanta’s offer were not included in Romero’s report.
Grandal, 36, is the top catcher remaining on the free agent market. Depending on how teams view James McCann and Yan Gomes, Grandal is arguably the only unsigned catcher capable of filling more than a backup role. During his best years, he was widely considered one of the top catchers in the sport. His performance dropped off significantly in 2022 and ’23, but he rebounded with the Pirates in 2024. His offensive numbers were slightly above average for a catcher in nearly every category, while his top-notch pitch framing numbers made him a valuable defender behind the dish. He finished the season with 1.4 FanGraphs WAR in 72 games played.
Up until recently, one might have thought the Braves were set at catcher. Sean Murphy is entering the third year of his six-year, $73MM contract extension, and the Braves surely want him to play as much as possible. While he had a down year in 2024, he is only one year removed from an All-Star season in 2023. In addition, the consensus top prospect in Atlanta’s system is catcher Drake Baldwin. Soon to be 24, Baldwin excelled at Triple-A last year and has continued to excel this spring. He looks ready to make his MLB debut. It’s hard to imagine how Grandal would have fit into the mix.
However, things changed last week when the Braves announced that Murphy would miss four to six weeks with a cracked rib cage. That makes Baldwin the likely Opening Day starter. All of a sudden, the youngster is facing far more pressure to succeed right away. Thus, if the Braves had any interest in Grandal last month, one would think that interest would only be greater now that Murphy is set to miss extended time. Indeed, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported a few days ago that the Braves were “considering” Grandal and McCann.
From Grandal’s perspective, signing with the Braves might now seem more appealing than it did last month. He would have a clear path to regular playing time (or at least a split role with Baldwin) while Murphy is on the shelf. That might only be for a couple of weeks, but even so, it would give Grandal a chance to prove he still deserves a major league opportunity, whether in Atlanta or somewhere else. The Braves are the only team known to have expressed interest in Grandal this winter, but perhaps another club could look to acquire him if he gets a big league gig and plays well.
Romero notes that Grandal is hoping to continue his playing career, though he could consider retirement if the right deal doesn’t come together. The 36-year-old has enjoyed a highly successful 13-year tenure in Major League Baseball with the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, White Sox, and Pirates. At his peak, he was a well-above-average offensive catcher, putting up an .807 OPS and a 121 wRC+ over his first 10 seasons. However, his most valuable tool has always been his glove. In particular, Grandal is widely considered one of the most talented pitch framers of his generation. According to FanGraphs, he has racked up 152.0 framing runs throughout his career, easily the most among active catchers. Austin Hedges ranks second with 89.3. If Grandal chooses to hang up his catching gear, he will certainly have a strong career to look back on.
Erik Sabrowski Likely To Start Season On IL
Guardians reliever Erik Sabrowski has not appeared in a game this spring as he nurses inflammation in his pitching elbow. While there is no indication that the issue is particularly serious, any elbow problems are concerning when it comes to a pitcher who has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries in his career. According to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins, Sabrowski was given “an anti-inflammatory injection” this past week. The southpaw will take some time to rest before being re-examined next week – and hopefully starting a throwing program soon after. However, this setback means he is likely to begin the 2025 season on the IL.
Never a highly-ranked prospect, Sabrowski burst onto the scene last September, tossing 12 2/3 innings and striking out 19. Of the 47 batters he faced, not one crossed the plate. Only six reached base. Despite his lack of experience, the left-hander made Cleveland’s postseason roster and continued to impress in October. He faced 23 batters over 5 1/3 innings, striking out eight. He gave up two runs, though only one was earned.
The star of Sabrowski’s arsenal is his four-seam fastball. He doesn’t throw it especially hard, but his long extension increases the pitch’s perceived velocity. He also gets great movement on the pitch, and it’s his best weapon for generating swing and miss. The 27-year-old complements his heater with two breaking balls – a curveball and a slider – both of which have the potential to be plus secondaries.
After his strong performance in 2024, Sabrowski seemed like a good bet to make the Guardians’ Opening Day roster and pitch meaningful innings out of the bullpen in 2025. While the former is now unlikely, the latter is still a strong possibility. Not only is Sabrowski a promising arm – the ZiPS projection system sees him posting an ERA in the mid-3.00s – but he is one of only two left-handed relievers with MLB experience on Cleveland’s 40-man roster. With Sabrowski on the shelf, RosterResource currently has Tim Herrin and Doug Nikhazy as the lefties in the projected Opening Day bullpen. Herrin is a lock, but Nikhazy has no MLB experience and next to no experience pitching out of the ‘pen. If Sabrowski can get back to full health soon, he should have a job waiting for him.
José Valdivielso Passes Away
Former MLB shortstop José Valdivielso passed away on Tuesday. He was 90 years old. His obituary is available courtesy of a New York funeral home.
Born in Matanzas, Cuba, Valdivielso made his MLB debut with the Washington Senators in 1955. He earned a down-ballot MVP vote at the end of his rookie season. Valdivielso would later move with the organization to Minnesota when the Senators became the team known today as the Twins. Over 401 games from 1955-1961, the 6-foot-1 infielder recorded 201 hits and scored 89 runs. Primarily a shortstop, he also appeared in a handful of games at both second and third base. He is well-remembered among Cuban fans for making the final out in the only all-Cuban triple play (h/t Francys Romero).
Although he played his last MLB game in 1961, Valdivielso spent three more seasons in the minor leagues from 1962-64. Following his playing career, he worked on the Spanish-language radio broadcast teams for both the Yankees and Mets. He was also well respected for his work with the MLB Players Alumni Association.
We at MLB Trade Rumors offer our deepest condolences to Valdivielso’s family and friends, as well as everyone whose life he touched throughout his career in baseball.
Giancarlo Stanton Has “Severe” Injuries In Both Elbows
Giancarlo Stanton offered an update this morning about the elbow injuries that have kept him from playing this spring. He told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that the problem is “considered severe” in each of his elbows. The Yankees DH remains uncertain as to when he will be able to return to baseball activities of any kind. While he does not yet know if double elbow surgery will be necessary, he said that if he goes under the knife, the surgeries will rule him out for the 2025 season. Thankfully, GM Brian Cashman recently described surgery as a “last resort” for Stanton (per Hoch).
The 35-year-old has received two rounds of PRP injections in both elbows, and he will go for a third round next week. While Stanton is currently with the rest of his Yankees teammates at camp, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Hoch) that the DH is unlikely to see any game action in spring training. Last weekend, the Yankees announced that Stanton would open the season on the IL. They did not provide a timetable for his return. Today’s update doesn’t necessarily push that already uncertain timeline back any further, but Stanton’s use of the word “severe” certainly isn’t promising, nor is the possibility that he could miss the entire 2025 campaign.
It is hard to know what to think about the fact that Stanton attributed his elbow problems to “bat adjustments” he made in 2024. On the one hand, it’s encouraging that he was able to identify the problem; hopefully, that means he knows how to avoid reaggravating the issue once he starts to swing a bat again. On the other hand, Stanton’s powerful swing is his signature skill. Even in his mid-thirties, he had the fastest swing speed in MLB last season, according to Statcast. It’s worth wondering if he can make the necessary bat adjustments to keep his elbows safe without weakening his swing.
While it has been years since Stanton was a true superstar, he was still a valuable contributor to New York’s pennant-winning squad in 2024. He crushed 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a 116 wRC+. His bat was particularly potent in the playoffs; he hit seven homers in 14 games, with a team-leading 16 RBI. The Yankees made some solid additions to the top half of their order this winter, trading for Cody Bellinger and signing free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Still, their offense does not project to be quite as potent without Juan Soto to bat in front of Aaron Judge. Losing Stanton for any period of time will only further weaken the lineup.
Boone said earlier this week that he likes the in-house candidates the team has to replace Stanton, “especially against right-handed pitching” (per Hoch). That could mean using Judge at DH more often and starting the lefty-batting Trent Grisham in the outfield. While Grisham’s bat is a far cry from Stanton’s, such an arrangement would improve the outfield defense and could help Judge stay healthy throughout the season. Another lefty-batting option to get some reps at DH is Ben Rice. Although he struggled in his rookie season (73 wRC+ in 178 PA), Rice mashed throughout the minors and could offer some power in Stanton’s stead. J.C. Escarra is another left-handed hitter on the 40-man roster. He’s nearing 30 and has yet to make his MLB debut, but he hit well last season in his first year in the Yankees organization. Dominic Smith, a veteran non-roster invitee in camp this spring, is another left-handed bat to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, the most likely option to join the mix against left-handed pitching, whether in the outfield or at DH, could be Everson Pereira. Like Rice, Pereira struggled in his brief debut last season but has always hit well – especially in the power department – in the minor leagues. In seven games this spring, Pereira is batting .375 with a 1.224 OPS. He has been limited to DH duty in spring training as he rehabs from UCL surgery, but he could eventually take some reps for Judge in the outfield as well.
Finally, one has to wonder if Cashman is thinking about making an offer to free agent J.D. Martinez. While the Yankees could not feasibly roster both Stanton and Martinez, season-ending surgery for the former could open the door for the latter. To that end, New York has reportedly had “some contact with” Martinez. In a recent MLBTR poll, a plurality of respondents voted the Yankees as the most likely landing spot for the 37-year-old DH.
Tigers Sign José Urquidy
The Tigers have signed free agent right-hander José Urquidy to a one-year, $1MM contract for 2025, the team announced. The deal comes with a $4MM team option for 2026. That team option also includes escalators that could increase Urquidy’s salary by up to $3MM. He will earn an additional $150K for reaching each of four and seven starts; $300K for reaching each of 10, 13, 16, and 19 starts; and $500K for reaching each of 22, 25, and 28 starts.
To free up space for Urquidy on the 40-man roster, the Tigers placed fellow right-hander Sawyer Gipson-Long on the 60-day injured list while he continues to recover from left hip labral repair and Tommy John surgery. The team has also placed Urquidy on the 60-day IL; he is recovering from Tommy John surgery of his own.
Urquidy spent the first six years of his MLB career with the Astros. While he looked like a solid mid-rotation starter in 2021 and ’22 (3.81 ERA, 4.22 SIERA in 49 games), the righty had a rough year in 2023. He struggled out of the gate in April before landing on the IL with shoulder troubles. His struggles continued upon his return in August, and he soon lost his spot in the starting rotation.
Unfortunately, Urquidy’s troubles only got worse in 2024. He opened the season on the injured list and eventually required UCL surgery in June. After clearing waivers in November, he elected free agency.
Urquidy will not be ready to return to action until midseason at the earliest, so he will not factor into the ongoing rotation battle in Tigers camp. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson are locks for the Opening Day rotation, and top prospect Jackson Jobe has the inside track on the number four spot, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. However, with Alex Cobb expected to miss the beginning of the season, one spot at the back end is still up for grabs. Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda, and Keider Montero are the primary candidates to win that job.
Meanwhile, Urquidy will continue his rehab in the Tigers organization. Once he is ready to get back on the field, he can provide depth as a back-end starter or long reliever. In a best-case scenario, Urquidy returns and looks like his old self, which would make his club option for 2026 a bargain. Meanwhile, the worst possible outcome for the Tigers is that they pay him $1MM to rehab in 2025 and cut their losses at the end of the year if he struggles or fails to get back on the mound.
Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 was the first to report the agreement between Urquidy and the Tigers. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News confirmed that it was a major league deal.
Dodgers To “Slow-Play” Shohei Ohtani’s Pitching Rehab
Since his debut in 2018, Shohei Ohtani has gone 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA and 608 strikeouts. In that time, only five starters (min. 400 IP) have a lower ERA, and only six have a higher strikeout rate. There is no denying that Ohtani has been a terrific pitcher when he has been healthy enough to take the mound. Alas, injuries have limited the two-way superstar to just 86 starts in seven MLB seasons. He has not pitched in a big league game since August 2023. Of course, that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the best players in the world – he won his third MVP in 2024 without pitching a single inning – but it would be an understatement to say that fans are excited to see him back on the mound in 2025.
Unfortunately, the wait might be longer than initially expected. Not only is Ohtani working his way back from UCL surgery in September 2023, but he is also recovering from surgery on his non-throwing shoulder this past November. In February, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts suggested Ohtani could start facing live batters ahead of the Tokyo Series and return to the team’s rotation at some point in May – perhaps even earlier. As recently as two weeks ago, that still seemed to be the case. This past Thursday, however, the skipper was singing a slightly different tune.
Ohtani has not thrown off of a mound since a bullpen session on February 25. Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) that the team is being extra cautious with the two-way player as he gets back into games as DH. His last bullpen session came three days before his first Cactus League appearance as a hitter. “We just felt that to intensify the bullpens, alongside of the intensity of the games, wasn’t smart,” Roberts explained. “So we just wanted to kind of slow-play it.”
Asked if Ohtani could still return to the rotation in May, Roberts was noncommittal: “We just don’t know.”
Pitching coach Mark Prior said the Dodgers are “trying to control overall workload management” for Ohtani’s left shoulder. He told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, “There’s a little bit of a shift towards making sure he’s dialed in, ready to go, from a DH standpoint.” Thankfully, Prior does not believe Ohtani’s new timeline is any cause for concern. This isn’t a sign of a major setback; the Dodgers simply seem to be exercising the utmost caution with their most important player. Still, it’s worth noting that Ohtani’s timeline to return looks longer than it did a few weeks ago. As Sonja Chen of MLB.com points out, Ohtani is now unlikely to face live opponents until the team gets back from Tokyo.
As thrilling as it will be to finally see Ohtani back on a big league mound, one absolutely cannot fault the Dodgers for playing things safe. With Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May in the fold, L.A. isn’t exactly short on rotation depth to begin the season. Moreover, the worst-case scenario is that Ohtani suffers an injury that prevents him from pitching or hitting for any period of time. Needless to say, the Dodgers understand that better than anyone, and they’re taking precautions to avoid such a disaster.
Poll: Where Will Spencer Turnbull Sign?
Earlier this week, Nick Deeds gave MLBTR readers a chance to voice their opinions about where Kyle Gibson, the top unsigned starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, and David Robertson, the top unsigned reliever, would end up. That leaves one more unsigned player from our Top 50 list left to cover: 32-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull.
Turnbull became a free agent for the first time last offseason. He was coming off a poor final season with the Tigers. After missing all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he pitched to a 7.26 ERA and 5.24 SIERA over seven starts in April and May before suffering a neck injury. Upon his return from the IL in August, Detroit optioned him to Triple-A – even though he was nursing an injured foot at the time. The team would retroactively reverse the option in November (after non-tendering him the week prior), thereby granting Turnbull a full year of service time. Nonetheless, that didn’t change the fact that he spent the final weeks of the 2023 season in the minors, pitching to a 6.23 ERA and 4.25 FIP in eight starts.
Despite such an unceremonious ending to his Tigers tenure, Turnbull landed a $2MM guarantee from the Phillies last February, only $400K lower than his projected arbitration salary. It quickly seemed as if Philadelphia had struck gold, as the righty looked terrific out of the gate. Initially expected to start the season in the bullpen, Turnbull was thrust into the rotation when Taijuan Walker suffered an injury toward the end of spring training. Through six turns in the Phillies rotation during April, Turnbull tossed 32 1/3 frames with a 1.67 ERA and 3.37 SIERA. He struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced while inducing ground balls at a 49.4% rate.
Turnbull didn’t look quite as sharp after transitioning to a bullpen role in May, putting up a 4.26 ERA and 3.80 SIERA over his next 19 innings. Still, the Phillies were confident enough in his skills that they returned him to the rotation at the end of June when Walker suffered another injury. Unfortunately, Turnbull lasted just three innings in his first start in eight weeks, exiting with shoulder soreness and later hitting the IL with a right lat strain. That injury would prove to be season-ending.
All in all, Turnbull finished the 2024 season with impressive numbers: a 2.65 ERA and 3.67 SIERA, both career-bests. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 17.1% K-BB% were the best marks of his career as well. Unfortunately, 54 1/3 innings isn’t much of a sample size, and his lat strain only added to his reputation as an injury-prone pitcher. He has spent time on the 60-day IL in each of the past four seasons, and only once has he thrown more than 60 innings in a season (148 1/3 IP in 2019). Thus, MLBTR described him as “something of a wild card” on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. On a per-inning basis, Turnbull has shown the skills to be an above-average starting pitcher – he has averaged just over 3.0 FanGraphs WAR per 162 IP throughout his career – but that means a lot less for a pitcher who has not proven he can consistently start more than a handful of games per season.
All of that explains why Turnbull remains unsigned into March, and indeed, it sheds light on why he has not been credibly linked to a single suitor this winter. That being said, it’s not as if Turnbull can’t provide value to a major league club. Even with all the time he spent on the injured list in 2024, he was well worth his $2MM salary to the Phillies, producing 0.7 FanGraphs WAR and 1.2 Baseball Reference WAR while helping the team to victory in 12 of the 17 games in which he appeared. In a poll last month, more MLBTR readers voted Turnbull as the top remaining free agent starter than either Gibson or Andrew Heaney. While it now seems unlikely that Turnbull will secure the one-year, $7MM contract MLBTR initially predicted, he surely deserves a major league roster spot for the upcoming campaign.
So, where might Turnbull find that roster spot? At this point in the year, most teams are happy to stick with their in-house rotation options. It makes sense. Those are the guys the catchers, coaching staff, and analytics department are familiar with and the guys each team has been working with all spring. That means someone like Gibson might be forced to wait for an injury to free up a rotation spot he can claim. Turnbull, however, proved he could hold his own in a long-relief capacity last season, which would make it easier for a team to sign him as rotation depth, even if that team does not immediately have a rotation spot available. As he did with the Phillies, Turnbull could join a team with the expectation of pitching out of the bullpen, and eventually, a starting opportunity would almost certainly arise. That flexibility, in addition to the lack of rumors surrounding Turnbull and the relatively low salary he will command, makes it very difficult to narrow down the field of potential landing spots.
Back in November, Tim Dierkes predicted Turnbull would sign with the Padres, Anthony Franco the Rockies, Darragh McDonald the Blue Jays, and Steve Adams the Twins. San Diego and Colorado still seem like possibilities; the Padres are short on rotation depth even after signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart this winter, while Austin Gomber‘s shoulder soreness should have the Rockies looking to add another arm. Toronto, on the other hand, already has some good rotation depth in the form of Bowden Francis or Yariel Rodríguez (whichever one does not make the Opening Day rotation). Meanwhile, Minnesota has former top prospects Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Louis Varland waiting in the wings, as well as Rule 5 draft pick Eiberson Castellano. The Twins have spent more than expected on free agents this winter, and it’s hard to think they’d be willing to spend any more on an area that is already a strength.
As for other potential suitors, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that the Cardinals are considering adding a free agent reliever. While Turnbull isn’t a reliever, strictly speaking, he would likely be an upgrade over an arm like Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy, or Chris Roycroft in a long-relief role. He would also offer depth to a rotation that lost both Gibson and Lance Lynn to free agency. Turnbull could come in especially handy if the Cardinals find a trade partner for one of their more expensive starters, such as Sonny Gray or Miles Mikolas, during the season.
The Guardians, Astros, Angels, White Sox, and Athletics are some more teams that could theoretically make room in their rotations. The Guardians are hoping to get some rotation upgrades midseason when Shane Bieber and John Means return from Tommy John, but they could use some help earlier in the year. RosterResource currently has Triston McKenzie (5.11 ERA, 5.34 SIERA in 20 starts from 2023-24) penciled in as their number five starter. The Astros also have several starters on the IL, leaving Hayden Wesneski, who has only made 22 starts in his career, as their most likely number five starter on Opening Day.
The Angels, arguably, have a complete rotation right now, but that’s only if they trust Reid Detmers in a regular role. The once-promising southpaw spent a significant portion of the 2024 season at Triple-A and pitched to a 6.70 ERA in 17 MLB starts. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s rotation is full of question marks after de facto “ace” Martín Pérez, but one might think they’d prefer to give as many opportunities as possible to the young arms within their organization. The Athletics are in a similar position.
One last team I would consider is the Mets. While they entered spring training with a surplus of starting pitching, their depth already looks thin after Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea both suffered injuries. Turnbull would likely be a depth upgrade over José Ureña, whom the Mets recently signed to a minor league deal.
So, where do MLBTR readers think Turnbull will ultimately wind up? Have your say in the poll below:
Where will Spencer Turnbull sign?
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Mets 11% (342)
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Phillies 7% (223)
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Braves 6% (200)
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Padres 6% (184)
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Reds 5% (179)
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White Sox 5% (179)
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Orioles 5% (171)
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Yankees 5% (164)
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Angels 5% (149)
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Cardinals 4% (134)
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Tigers 4% (130)
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Athletics 4% (115)
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Guardians 3% (98)
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Pirates 3% (95)
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Brewers 3% (89)
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Rockies 3% (84)
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Blue Jays 2% (77)
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Cubs 2% (70)
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Twins 2% (62)
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Mariners 2% (58)
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Marlins 2% (57)
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Red Sox 2% (56)
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Dodgers 2% (55)
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Astros 2% (52)
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Giants 1% (48)
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Rangers 1% (46)
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Nationals 1% (41)
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Royals 1% (39)
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Rays 1% (36)
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Diamondbacks 1% (23)
Total votes: 3,256
The Opener: Walker, Topa, Spring Breakout Rosters
Here are three things we’ll be watching for around baseball today:
1. Christian Walker‘s oblique injury:
Christian Walker was removed from the Astros’ spring training matchup against the Cardinals on Wednesday with soreness in his left oblique (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) that the team will have more information on Walker’s injury today after the first baseman has met with team doctors. While Espada couldn’t offer many more details, it’s worth noting that he did not downplay the injury, saying: “It’s something I don’t want to see right now. I’m just hoping for the best.”
With Opening Day just three weeks away, even a mild strain could keep Walker out for the beginning of the season. The veteran missed five weeks last summer with a left oblique strain. He also missed a similar amount of time with a right oblique injury in 2021. Losing Walker for even a couple of weeks would be a tough blow for the Astros. The soon-to-be 34-year-old blossomed into one of the better first baseman in the sport in his thirties. Over the last three seasons, he has hit 95 home runs with a 120 wRC+, while winning the NL Gold Glove each year. The Astros, meanwhile, ranked last among AL teams in FanGraphs WAR at first base last season, and they are counting on Walker to change that.
2. Justin Topa to go for testing:
Twins right-hander Justin Topa exited early on Wednesday in his third outing of the spring, with manager Rocco Baldelli later telling reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune) that Topa felt some tightness in his pitching shoulder. The skipper expressed optimism, suggesting the issue does not seem “overly serious,” but Topa, who’ll turn 34 tomorrow, will undergo testing today.
Topa did not make his MLB debut until his age-29 season in 2020, and injuries kept him from pitching more than eight innings in a season until 2023. However, he was phenomenal out of the Mariners’ bullpen that year, tossing 69 frames with a 2.61 ERA and 3.47 SIERA. Unfortunately, patellar tendinitis in his left knee limited him to just three appearances last year in his first season with the Twins. Minnesota will hope this latest setback proves to be minor and Topa can quickly return to the mound. If he can pitch anything like he did in 2023, he will make this team’s already strong bullpen even more dangerous.
3. Spring breakout rosters to be announced:
After a successful debut last March, Spring Breakout is returning for another year. The four-day event is designed to spotlight the top young talent in all 30 organizations. Every club will put together a roster of prospects to compete in a spring training showcase matchup against a team of prospects from another organization. Each of these prospect teams will play at least one Spring Breakout game from March 13-16, while the Cubs and Nationals will each play two games to account for the uneven number of clubs in the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.
The rosters for all 30 teams will be announced this morning at 10:00 a.m. CT on MLB Network. Not every top prospect will take part in Spring Breakout, but much of the game’s best young talent will be on display. Last year, 71 of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects participated in the event.