Cubs Sign Justin Turner
The Cubs are bringing one of the game’s most experienced veteran hitters into the fold, announcing Thursday that they’ve signed Justin Turner to a one-year contract. Outfielder Alexander Canario has been designated for assignment (as was reported earlier today). Turner, a VaynerSports client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM with incentives also available. The guarantee breaks down as a $4MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2026. As for the incentives, Turner would get $125K for getting to 350, 375, 400, 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances. He’d get $250K for getting to 500, 525 and 550 plate appearances. There’s also $250K for 120 and 150 days on the active roster, as well as a $500K bonus every time he’s traded.
Despite his age, the now-40-year-old Turner remained a productive bat for the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2024. He hit 24 doubles and 11 home runs while continuing to make the most of his plate discipline and contact skills en route to a .737 OPS and 117 wRC+. The righty batter was particularly productive for Seattle in September, slashing .295/.396/.449 with a 143 wRC+. In other words, there is little reason to doubt that he can still be a valuable contributor to a team with postseason aspirations.
Turner has qualified for the batting title in each of the past four seasons, but he will take on more of a part-time role with the Cubs. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that Turner is expected to fill a backup role at first and third base. Chicago reportedly considered many options for such a job but ultimately settled on Turner after missing out on star third baseman Alex Bregman (per Rogers). The Cubs were a finalist to sign Bregman before he joined the Red Sox instead. The team also reportedly considered trading for Nolan Arenado, although it comes as no surprise that the Cardinals weren’t interested in trading Arenado to a division rival (per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney).
Primarily a third baseman in his younger days, Turner has only played a handful of games at the hot corner in each of the past two seasons. Instead, he has transitioned to a first base/DH role. Both of those jobs are already spoken for in Chicago, with promising sophomore Michael Busch at first base and Seiya Suzuki, arguably the team’s second-best hitter after Kyle Tucker, penciled in at DH. Still, the Cubs plan to use Turner primarily at those two spots, per Mooney; Turner won’t be lining up at third base with any regularity.
Turner could potentially platoon with Busch at first if the lefty batter struggles against same-handed pitching. On top of that, Turner will offer the club insurance in the case of an injury to Busch, Suzuki, or a corner outfielder; if Tucker or Ian Happ gets hurt, Suzuki could play the outfield with Turner taking over as the primary DH. Even if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could give Happ or Tucker the occasional breather and plug Turner in at designated hitter on such days.
With regard to third base, top prospect Matt Shaw seems to be the most likely choice to win the job out of camp, but the 23-year-old has yet to play a game at the big league level. Thus, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made it clear that Shaw is not yet guaranteed the starting job. However, the Cubs don’t exactly have a ton of other options. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan both have MLB experience at third, but neither is a starting-caliber player at the position. Meanwhile, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is himself an unknown quantity; he has not played a game above Double-A. Turner isn’t an everyday solution, but he’ll at least improve the team’s depth at third while providing a quality bat to deepen the team’s offense.
Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was first to report that the Cubs and Turner were finalizing a one-year, $6MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed there was an agreement in place and reported the performance bonuses, as well as the full breakdown.
Twins To Give Harrison Bader “Significant” Playing Time In Left Field
Harrison Bader has covered all three outfield positions in his career, but the vast majority of his playing time has come in center field. That shouldn’t come as any surprise. Bader’s bat is poor, to say the least; he has a career .698 OPS and 90 wRC+. However, most teams can stomach sub-par offense at a premier defensive position like center field, and Bader isn’t just any defender. With 50 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 76 Outs Above Average (OAA) in his eight-year MLB tenure, Bader is one of the best outfielders the game has to offer. Since his debut in 2017, only four active outfielders have accumulated more DRS, and none has more OAA. That’s the kind of player almost any team would want in center field.
“Almost” is the key word in that sentence. Of those four active outfielders with more DRS than Bader over the last eight years, one is Byron Buxton. Buxton also ranks second to Bader in OAA, and on a per-game basis, Buxton far outpaces Bader in both metrics. On top of that, Buxton is the superior hitter, with an .844 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the past six seasons. And, of course, Buxton just so happens to be the starting center fielder (and the longest-tenured player) on the Twins – the same team with whom Bader signed a one-year, $6.25MM contract earlier this month.
When the Twins signed Bader, one might have thought his primary role would be as a backup for the oft-injured Buxton. Bader is rather injury-prone himself, and both players might benefit from splitting time at the demanding defensive position. Yet, it seems as if that won’t be Bader’s only job. On Monday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that the righty-batting Bader is expected to take over for either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner in a corner spot when the Twins are facing a southpaw starter. To that point, manager Rocco Baldelli told Helfand that Bader was more likely to play left field than right, given the outfield dimensions at Target Field.
Earlier today, Dan Hayes of The Athletic provided further details about Bader’s role in Minnesota. Hayes writes that the Twins will have the 30-year-old play left field “regularly,” and he will see “a significant amount of playing time” at the position.
Perhaps the Twins are hoping that Bader’s bat will play up if he has the platoon advantage more often. After all, his career 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching would look perfectly acceptable in a corner spot. Then again, his offense has dropped off in recent years; his 95 wRC+ against lefties from 2022-24 might be more representative of the kind of hitter the Twins will get in 2025. Thus, the best way for Bader to contribute as a left fielder is to do what he does best: provide top-tier defense. Considering his strong track record in center field, one would think Bader could thrive at an easier defensive position. Indeed, it might take him a bit of time to adjust to the new role (he’s only played 13 MLB games in left) but his elite range and strong arm should play anywhere in the outfield. What’s more, his declining sprint speed – it has dropped in each of the past three years, going from the 97th percentile to the 74th – should be less of a concern in left. All told, left field still isn’t the best place for a player of Bader’s skill set, but if the Twins are concerned about starting Larnach (career 60 wRC+ in 187 PA vs LHP) and Wallner (career 44 wRC+ in 108 PA vs LHP) against lefties, it’s not the worst idea to prioritize defense in left field instead.
With all that said, Bader could still end up playing most of his games in center field. After all, Buxton has not started more than 87 games in center in a single season since 2017. So, there is little doubt the Twins signed Bader to be an insurance policy for Buxton. Yet, it seems as if that wasn’t the only reason, and Bader is going to be more than just a well-compensated backup in Minnesota. When Buxton needs a day off, the Twins will hardly lose a step (defensively) in center. Meanwhile, on days when Buxton and Bader are both patrolling the grass, this team will have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, regardless of who’s standing in right.
Adam Ottavino, Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deal
Adam Ottavino and the Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract, as first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Unsurprisingly, the deal comes with an invitation to big league spring training. Indeed, according to Nick O’Malley and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the veteran reliever has already reported to camp. He will earn a $2MM salary in 2025 if he makes the MLB roster. Conversely, if Ottavino fails to make the 40-man roster out of camp, he will have the freedom to opt out of his contract and return to free agency (per O’Malley and Cotillo). This is Ottavino’s second stint in the Red Sox organization.
Ottavino, 39, made his MLB debut as a starter for the Cardinals in 2010. However, the Rockies converted him to a relief role after claiming him on waivers in 2012, and the right-hander has been one of the most prolific relievers in the game ever since. Over the past 13 seasons with the Rockies (2012-18), Yankees (2019-20), Red Sox (2021), and Mets (2022-24), Ottavino has pitched 720 2/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA. In that time, he ranks fifth among all relievers in appearances and third in innings pitched. He has remained durable into his late thirties, making at least 60 appearances in each of the past four years. Even more impressive, he has not been on the injured list since 2018.
With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why an MLB team would still be interested in Ottavino, despite his advanced age. His 4.34 ERA this past season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he is only one year removed from a 3.21 ERA season in 2023 and only two years removed from producing an incredible 2.06 ERA in 2022. Moreover, his underlying numbers in 2024 suggest he can still be a back-end bullpen weapon. He pitched to a 3.19 xERA and 3.27 SIERA thanks to a deep arsenal of pitches that helped him thrive as both a strikeout arm and a weak contact artist; his strikeout rate and hard-hit rate both ranked above the 80th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
On the flip side, it’s worth pointing out that Ottavino struggled with his control down the stretch last season. While his 3.86 ERA in August and September was actually lower than his 4.54 ERA over the first four months of the season, his walk rate shot up from 7.6% to 13.5% over the final two months of the year. Even worse, his strikeout rate dropped from 29.8% from April to July to 25.7% in August and September. That could explain why the Mets did not use him at all in the NL Wild Card Series or the NLDS, and why they left him off of their NLCS roster entirely. It might also explain why the veteran was forced to sign a non-guaranteed contract this winter.
Still, with a strong spring, Ottavino has a good chance to earn a job in Boston’s bullpen. Aside from free agent signing Aroldis Chapman and 2024 breakout arm Justin Slaten, the Red Sox have plenty of uncertainty in their arm barn. Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock are coming off of major injuries, while buy-low free agent signing Justin Wilson has not been an effective bullpen arm for several years (5.34 ERA from 2021-24). Meanwhile, names like Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, and Luis Guerrero are hardly locks to make the Opening Day roster. After signing Wilson and Chapman, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that upgrading the bullpen remained a priority. If Ottavino continues to pitch the way he has for most of his career, he should certainly qualify as an upgrade for Boston’s ‘pen.
Rockies To Consider Young Pitchers For Starting Rotation
There’s a likely scenario in which the Rockies enter the 2025 season with a rotation full of familiar faces: Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, and Antonio Senzatela. All five of those pitchers have been in Colorado’s Opening Day rotation multiple times before. Yet, general manager Bill Schmidt is not ruling out the possibility that one of the team’s young pitching prospects could supplant an established arm (per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Accordingly, the GM says his team is open to the idea of moving a veteran starter to the bullpen to accommodate a fresh face in the rotation. On a similar note, manager Bud Black told Saunders he’s also open to some young pitchers making the team – as long as they’re ready.
As Saunders lays out, the three prospects most likely to wiggle their way onto the Opening Day roster are Chase Dollander, Carson Palmquist, and Sean Sullivan. Dollander, 23, is a consensus top-100 prospect and widely considered the best pitching prospect in the Rockies system. He looks like a future frontline starter with the upside to be a perennial Cy Young contender. However, it has been less than two years since Colorado drafted him, and he only has one year of professional experience under his belt. Thus, there’s a good chance the Rockies would like their star prospect to get some more reps in the high minors before they expose him to big league competition – at Coors Field, no less. To that point, Schmidt made it clear that the Rockies have no interest in rushing Dollander to the show. They will not consider calling him up to pitch out of the bullpen; he won’t be in Colorado until he’s ready for a role in the rotation.
However, director of player development Chris Forbes suggested that Palmquist, 24, could see his MLB debut out of the bullpen (per Saunders). The team still envisions him as a starter long-term, and he could still impress enough to earn a starting role this spring, but he could also see time as a multi-inning arm in the ‘pen. The young left-hander is not as highly regarded of a prospect as Dollander – he looks more like a back-end starter than an ace – but he could be closer to the big leagues. The Rockies took him with the 88th overall pick in 2022, and he has quickly risen through the ranks of their minor league system. He has made 46 starts across four levels, including nine starts at Triple-A. In 27 starts between Double-A and Triple-A last year, he pitched to a 3.98 ERA and 4.43 FIP with an impressive 29.0% strikeout rate, although his 12.1% walk rate was rather high.
Sullivan, 22, was Colorado’s second-round pick in 2023. Most evaluators have doubts about his long-term prospects as a big league starting pitcher. Baseball America describes him as a “depth starter,” while FanGraphs sees him working in middle relief. However, the team at Baseball Prospectus included him on their list of the Rockies’ top 10 prospects, suggesting he could become a “highly efficient” number four starter. If his 2024 performance is anything to go off, that outcome certainly seems possible. Over 21 starts between High-A and Double-A, Sullivan tossed 115 1/3 innings with a 2.11 ERA and 2.83 FIP. Most impressive was his pinpoint control; he walked just 3.4% of the batters he faced. After a year like that, it’s not hard to understand why the Rockies will give him an extended look this spring.
As for which of Colorado’s veteran starting pitchers could wind up moving to the bullpen, Senzatela might be the most likely possibility. The oft-injured 30-year-old missed almost all of the last two seasons recovering from an ACL reconstruction and Tommy John surgery. His last productive season was in 2021, and even then, he failed to pitch enough to qualify for the ERA title. It would not be surprising to see him struggle in camp after so much time away, in which case it might be best for all involved to ease him back into an MLB role via the bullpen. Márquez is another name to keep an eye on this spring, considering he has also missed most of the last two seasons due to injury. He was durable and reliable for Colorado over the previous six years, so he is likely to have a much longer leash than his fellow Venezuelan right-hander. In other words, the Rockies are highly unlikely to move Márquez to the bullpen. However, if he needs to go back on the injured list, a spot in the rotation would open up.
Cardinals Sign Rob Kaminsky To Minor League Deal
The Cardinals have signed left-handed pitcher Rob Kaminsky to a minor league contract for the 2025 season, the team announced. This will be the 30-year-old’s third stint with the organization and his 12th professional campaign.
Kaminsky first signed with St. Louis in 2013 as the 28th overall pick in the draft. Despite his young age – he made his pro debut at 18 – the southpaw impressed right away. Over his first three years in the Cardinals system, he threw 217 1/3 innings between Rookie ball and High-A, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and 2.90 FIP.
St. Louis traded Kaminsky to Cleveland ahead of the 2015 trade deadline, in exchange for Brandon Moss. It was after the trade that Kaminsky began to struggle, and questions about his ability to stick in the rotation began to arise. Following a 2017 season almost completely lost to injury, he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2018 and ’19, compiling a 3.31 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 84 1/3 innings pitched. While his numbers were solid (if unspectacular), he had largely fallen off of top prospects lists by that time. He elected minor league free agency after the 2019 season.
Kaminsky re-joined the Cardinals on a minor league pact that winter and made his MLB debut the following summer. He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2020, striking out three and walking two. He gave up three runs, although only one was earned. Despite his serviceable results, the Cardinals DFA’d him after his fifth appearance in September. He has not returned the to major leagues since.
From 2021-24, Kaminsky bounced from the Phillies to the Mariners to the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League and back to the Mariners. He dealt with various injury issues in that time and struggled to make much of an impact when he did take the mound. That being said, it’s worth noting that he made eight starts at Triple-A Tacoma in 2024. It was the first time he had made more than two starts in a season since 2016. Kaminsky is highly unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but he will offer the Cardinals some left-handed depth for the bullpen, and possibly the rotation, too. Perhaps a return to his former club will help him get back on track as he strives to return to the majors in 2025.
Padres, Gavin Sheets Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres and Gavin Sheets have come to terms on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The deal includes an invitation to big league spring training. Sheets was non-tendered by the White Sox earlier this offseason.
A second-round pick in the 2017 draft, Sheets slugged his way to the majors in 2021. His bat stayed hot throughout the year, and he finished his debut season with 11 home runs, an .830 OPS, and a 123 wRC+ in 54 games. Unfortunately, the big lefty batter has struggled to make an impact at the plate ever since. Over 381 games from 2022-24, Sheets produced a .659 OPS and an 84 wRC+ with just 35 home runs in more than 1,200 trips to the plate. His walk and strikeout rates hovered relatively close to league average, but he just wasn’t impacting the ball the way he needed to – and the way he once seemed like he could, as a promising, power-hitting prospect. On the contrary, his hard-hit rate ranked in the bottom third of the league each year from 2022-24.
As a corner outfielder/first baseman who doesn’t contribute with his legs or his glove, Sheets needs to hit to offer value to his club. Thus, it wasn’t exactly surprising when the White Sox non-tendered him rather than pay his projected $2.6MM salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Even for a pitiful White Sox club, Sheets has been a disappointment. His -2.2 FanGraphs WAR over the last three seasons ranks last on the team in that time. Meanwhile, none of the well-known projection systems see him bouncing back. ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA all agree that Sheets is more likely than not to be a below-average hitter once again in 2025.
All of that explains why Sheets was unable to land a guaranteed contract entering his age-29 season. Instead, he will head to spring training and look to make a good impression. While the Padres recently addressed a weakness in the corner outfield by adding Jason Heyward and Connor Joe to form a platoon in left field, their designated hitter spot remains wide open. If Sheets earns a job on the Opening Day roster, he and Luis Arraez could share duties at first base and DH. Given the way Sheets has played lately, that’s a huge “if.” Then again, it’s not as if San Diego currently has a glut of better options. The Padres are desperately seeking upside as they try to replace hitters like Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim on a shoestring budget. Barring further additions, they have no reason not to give Sheets every opportunity to prove himself in camp.
Jon Berti Could See Time As Backup First Baseman For Cubs
Jon Berti doesn’t match the profile of your typical first baseman. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 190 pounds, Berti is best known for his speed. From 2018-23, his sprint speed consistently ranked in the 95th percentile or higher. In 2024, his age-34 season, he still ranked within the top 10% of baserunners with a sprint speed of 29.0 feet per second. Meanwhile, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate all would have ranked among the bottom 10% if he had enough batted balls to qualify. He managed just one extra-base hit in 74 trips to the plate. Since his debut in 2018, only 10 players (min. 1,500 PA) have a worse isolated power than Berti’s career .107 mark.
Indeed, up until this past October, Berti had never played first base – at least not professionally. The keystone was his primary home in the minor leagues. In the majors, he had split his time between second base, third base, and shortstop, while also filling in, on occasion, in all three outfield positions. However, in Game 2 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Royals, New York skipper Aaron Boone penciled Berti into the lineup at first base. The veteran utility man would end up starting two more games at first throughout the playoffs; all 12 of his 2024 postseason plate appearances (and all but one of his defensive innings) came at this brand new position.
The Yankees asked Berti to play first base out of desperation. Anthony Rizzo was unavailable for the ALDS, while DJ LeMahieu missed the entire postseason. Set to face the dominant southpaw Cole Ragans in Game 2, Boone decided he’d rather have the righty-batting Berti in the lineup over Ben Rice or Oswaldo Cabrera, both of whom have had their struggles against left-handed pitching. Yet, it seems as if Berti’s new club, the Cubs, could enter the 2025 season with Berti as their go-to backup at first base. Discussing the crop of position players who will suit up for the Cubs in the Cactus League this spring, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic suggested Berti could be “the primary backup” at first base this year.
Michael Busch will return as Chicago’s everyday first baseman in 2025 after a strong rookie campaign. Over 152 games, he popped 21 home runs, walked 11.1% of the time, and finished with a 119 wRC+ – well above the league average, even at a position with high offensive standards. After Busch, however, the team doesn’t have many options to cover the right-most bag. None of the other Cubs players who spent time at the position in 2024 (Cody Bellinger, Patrick Wisdom, Garrett Cooper, and Matt Mervis) remain in the organization. Other than Busch, the only player on their 40-man roster with more MLB experience at first base than Berti is Ian Happ (61 innings from 2018-20). Needless to say, the Cubs aren’t going to play their three-time Gold Glove-winning left fielder in the infield unless it’s as a last resort.
Two of the four spots on the Cubs’ bench are spoken for; one belongs to Berti and one belongs to whichever catcher, either Miguel Amaya or Carson Kelly, isn’t in the starting lineup. Top candidates for the remaining bench spots include utility man Gage Workman, a Rule 5 draft pick; utility man Vidal Bruján, an offseason trade acquisition; utility man Nicky Lopez, a minor league signing; and utility man Ben Cowles, whom the Cubs protected from the Rule 5 draft. Oh, and they’ll need at least one bona fide outfielder, too. Alexander Canario is already on the 40-man roster, so he could have the inside track on that job. Simply put, that doesn’t leave much room in the mix for a true first baseman, even if the Cubs had one to consider. First base prospect Jonathon Long will be in camp, but the 23-year-old has played less than half a season above High-A, and his chances of earning a spot on the Opening Day roster are slim to none.
The Cubs could think about adding someone like Mark Canha or Justin Turner, but they don’t have the playing time to offer to make such a signing seem appealing for either side. Alternatively, they could bring another first baseman into camp on a minor league deal (names like Rowdy Tellez or Yuli Gurriel come to mind), but players of that caliber might not move the needle enough to be worth pursuing.
So, it seems as if Berti will be Chicago’s best bet to spell Busch at first base on occasion. That might not be the best use of Berti’s skill set – his bat is well below average at first, while his plus glove is wasted at a low-impact defensive position. That said, it’s not as if first base is a position that necessarily requires a strong backup. If Busch can play another 152 games (or more), Berti’s job at first will be minimal. His primary responsibilities will still be at second base, third base, and/or shortstop. He proved last October that he could play first base in a pinch, and that could very well be all he needs to do for the Cubs in 2025.
Giants Could Hold Competition For Backup Catcher Role
When the Giants signed Tom Murphy to a two-year, $8.25MM deal last offseason, the contract came with the clear expectation that he would serve as the backup to young defensive star Patrick Bailey over the next two seasons. Murphy’s veteran experience and power bat would surely pair nicely with Bailey’s youth and glove-first skill set. Unfortunately for Murphy and San Francisco, he ended up spending most of the first year of his deal on the injured list nursing a sprained left knee. Meanwhile, the Giants needed six different catchers to get through the season, including two – Curt Casali and Andrew Knapp – who weren’t in the organization as of Opening Day. With the 2025 campaign fast approaching, Murphy is another year older and another year removed from his last healthy season. So, it stands to reason that the Giants would at least consider all their options before giving him the backup job once again. Indeed, according to Andrew Baggarly and Grant Brisbee of The Athletic, you can expect the team to hold “an open competition” for their second-string catcher job this spring.
Murphy played just 13 games in 2024, going 4-for-34 with one double, one home run, and four walks. When he landed on the IL in early May, Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Baggarly) that he would need approximately four to six weeks to recover. Yet, weeks turned into months and Murphy still could not squat behind the plate without pain. Eventually, a second MRI scan after the All-Star break showed that his sprained ligament had not healed at all (per Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group). A PRP injection seemed to help the healing process, but by that point, Murphy’s 2024 season was lost. On the bright side, he told Webeck in September that he hoped to be back at full strength by spring training, and there’s no reason to believe that timeline has changed.
It’s easy to see what the Giants liked about Murphy when they signed him. At his best (and his healthiest), he is a legitimate power threat, especially against left-handed pitching. He hit well when he was on the field in 2022 and ’23, batting .292 with nine home runs in 61 games. Particularly impressive were his .879 OPS and 148 wRC+ in 201 trips to the plate; no catcher (min. 200 PA) had a higher OPS or wRC+ in that span. Murphy also showed off his unusual power for a catcher in 2019 with the Mariners, a year in which he hit 18 home runs and put up a 126 wRC+ in 281 PA.
Of course, 201 PA and 281 PA are both small sample sizes, and small sample sizes have been a problem for Murphy throughout his career. He has never played more than 97 games or taken more than 325 PA in a season. As he enters his age-34 campaign, he has only crossed the 200 PA threshold in a season twice, the 100 PA threshold three times, and the 50 PA threshold four times. He has spent at least six weeks on the IL in four of the past five years. And of all the injuries he has suffered, his knee sprain last season might be the most troubling yet. Knee injuries are always worrisome for catchers, and the fact that he took so long to recover is another cause for concern. Even in a best-case scenario where Bailey stays healthy throughout this coming season and takes on as much of the catching duties as he possibly can, the Giants will still need 400 or so innings from their backup. Murphy has only caught 400 innings in a season twice, and it’s more than fair to wonder if he can handle that kind of workload in 2025.
With all that said, it works in Murphy’s favor that the Giants don’t necessarily have a better option. In January, Brisbee laid out a few of Murphy’s potential competitors, including Sam Huff, Max Stassi, and Logan Porter. Huff, who is already on the 40-man roster, was once a relatively well-regarded prospect in the Rangers organization. However, the 27-year-old has never been able to establish himself at the big league level, and he’s coming off a poor offensive season at Triple-A. Stassi, meanwhile, has plenty of MLB experience, but he hasn’t played in the majors since 2022 and has not been a productive major league since 2021. He’s the same age as Murphy and comes with even more question marks. Finally, Porter has some offensive upside, but there’s a reason he’s 29 years old and only has 11 big league games under his belt. Unlike Murphy, Huff, or Stassi, Porter has minor league options, which makes him a potential candidate to shuttle back and forth between the majors and minors as needed in a third-string catcher role.
If the Giants are willing to look outside the organization, they could make this competition a little more interesting by signing another veteran catcher like James McCann, Luke Maile, or Yan Gomes to a minor league contract and inviting them to camp. Ultimately, however, Murphy still seems like the favorite to be Bailey’s backup come Opening Day. For one thing, the $4.25MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract isn’t nothing, and the Giants aren’t going to want to eat that unless they feel they have no other choice. What’s more, if he can stay healthy, his powerful righty bat could be a genuinely valuable weapon for San Francisco’s bench. Still, the team will at least do their due diligence this spring. If Murphy struggles in camp, and another catcher stands out, the Giants will have to make a difficult decision before Opening Day.
Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.
Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.
Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.
As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez‘s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.
While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.
Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.
Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.
It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24. Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.
One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.
So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:
Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
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Braves 26% (2,609)
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Padres 19% (1,900)
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Another team 17% (1,697)
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Blue Jays 14% (1,393)
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Astros 11% (1,089)
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Angels 6% (650)
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Royals 5% (464)
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Tigers 4% (425)
Total votes: 10,227
The Opener: Ogasawara, Potential Trades, Contreras
Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today:
1. Ogasawara’s posting window:
The Chunichi Dragons posted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara for MLB clubs on December 10, giving him until January 24 to sign a deal. That deadline is fast approaching. If he and his reps at WME don’t strike an agreement with an MLB team by tomorrow, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for the 2025 campaign.
Ogasawara, 27, was an NPB All-Star for the first time in 2023 and was arguably even better this past year, reducing his ERA from 3.59 to 3.12 and increasing his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 3.27 to 3.73. He also lowered his home run rate from 0.8 HR/9 to 0.6 HR/9. However, it’s important to keep in mind that runs are harder to come by in NPB than MLB, and Ogasawara’s numbers aren’t exactly dominant by NPB standards. His ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate were all worse than the Central League average in 2024. His strikeout rate was at 24% as recently as 2022 but has dipped in each of the past two years, bottoming out at a discouraging 13.6% this past season. That said, this year’s 3.7% walk rate was phenomenal. His plus command could help him land a spot at the back of a team’s rotation, though it’s possible he’d fit better in a bullpen role in MLB. Readers looking to learn more about the lefty can check out a detailed scouting report on Ogasawara from Sports Info Solutions’ Brandon Tew.
Very little news has come out about Ogasawara since he was posted, making it difficult to gauge his market and even harder to predict what size of contract he might sign. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM deal for Ogasawara when we ranked him at No. 48 on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this offseason, based largely on his youth and command.
2. Waiting for the next notable trade:
While the trade market has been relatively slow so far in January, the rumor mill has remained active. The Dodgers are reportedly gauging interest in right-handed reliever Ryan Brasier, while the Twins and Padres are said to have discussed a deal involving catcher Christian Vazquez. Minnesota also has interest in Padres ace Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ bullpen search has led them to consider trading for veteran Astros reliever Ryan Pressly, though his no-trade rights could make that difficult.
The biggest name still on the trade market is third baseman Nolan Arenado. While reports have suggested Arenado is now less likely to be dealt than he was earlier in the offseason, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he is still trying to find a deal. However, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. recently suggested an Arenado trade isn’t a necessity, and his club isn’t desperate to cut payroll in 2025. Perhaps that means Arenado will stay in St. Louis after all, or perhaps those comments are intended to give the Cardinals some extra leverage — be it in Arenado negotiations or in potential trade talks for other veterans on the roster.
3. Roansy Contreras DFA resolution:
The Orioles designated right-handed reliever Roansy Contreras for assignment last week after claiming infielder Jacob Amaya. That kicked off a seven-day countdown for the O’s to either trade Contreras or run him through waivers. Today marks the end of that week-long period. The waiver process can take up to 48 hours, so it’s safe to presume the righty was placed on waivers Tuesday. By some point today, we should find out if another team will claim him or if the Orioles can send him outright to the minor leagues. He has never been outrighted previously in his career and does not have the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment.
Contreras, 25, began his career as a prospect in the Yankees organization before the team traded him to the Pirates as part of the deal that sent Jameson Taillon back to New York. He pitched in parts of four seasons with Pittsburgh from 2021-24 before the Pirates traded him to the Angels this past May. Since finishing off the 2024 campaign with L.A., he has bounced between several teams on waivers, going from the Angels to the Rangers to the Reds to the Orioles. He has a career 4.72 ERA and 4.66 SIERA in 90 games (33 starts) and clearly offers enough upside for several teams to be interested in claiming him off. Perhaps that upside will convince yet another team to take a chance on him today. If not, the O’s can stash the former top prospect in Triple-A Norfolk as a depth arm.