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The Opener: Paxton, Musgrove, Betts

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Here are three things we’ll be watching around Major League Baseball today:

1. James Paxton goes for MRI, Red Sox roster moves incoming:

Red Sox starter James Paxton exited his start yesterday in the first inning with a right calf strain. The left-hander will go for an MRI today, after which the team will have a better understanding of his injury. However, it seems all but certain the veteran will be placed on the 15-day IL before tonight’s game against the Rangers. He exited the field in significant pain on Sunday and used crutches to walk around the dugout after the contest.

According to manager Alex Cora (as reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive), Boston plans to make several additional roster moves today. For one, right-hander Brayan Bello will return from the paternity list to start tonight. In addition, lefty Brennan Bernardino has already been optioned to Triple-A (per Cotillo), although the team has yet to formally announce the transaction. Bernardino gave up four earned runs in 1 1/3 innings of work yesterday.

2. Joe Musgrove returns to the Padres:

All-Star right-hander Joe Musgrove will be reinstated from the 60-day IL to start tonight against the Pirates. Before he is activated, the Padres will need to open a spot for him on the 40-man roster. They could do so by transferring Fernando Tatis Jr. from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, considering the superstar is unlikely to return until September.

Musgrove has not played for San Diego since the end of May, nursing inflammation in his throwing elbow. He got off to a rough start this year, pitching to an uncharacteristic 5.66 ERA over his first 10 starts. However, his 4.23 SIERA is a little more promising, and his track record is that of a front-line starting pitcher. Over his first three seasons with San Diego from 2021-23, Musgrove put up a 3.05 ERA and 3.61 SIERA in 78 starts. The Padres will hope to have that version of Musgrove back in their rotation. While they have played exceptionally well as of late (8-2 in their last 10 games, 20-10 in their last 30), they have been relying on Randy Vásquez (4.63 ERA, 4.88 SIERA) as a fifth starter. Musgrove could provide a huge boost as the Padres battle for the NL West down the stretch.

3. Mookie Betts back in right field for the Dodgers:

Mookie Betts will be back in the Dodgers lineup today, batting second and playing right field – not leading off or playing shortstop. Manager Dave Roberts relayed the news to reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) last week. The team is going to stick with Shohei Ohtani in the leadoff spot, while second baseman Gavin Lux and shortstop Miguel Rojas will play the middle infield. Betts will split up Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top of the lineup and return to the position where he has won six Gold Gloves.

The eight-time All-Star has been out since mid-June with a fractured hand. While his long absence has dashed his chances of winning the NL MVP, Betts will return in plenty of time to help as the Dodgers attempt to secure what would be their 11th NL West title in the past 12 years. L.A. currently holds a 3.5-game lead over Arizona and San Diego.

River Ryan Suffers Season-Ending UCL Strain

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7:40PM: Roberts updated reporters (including Jack Harris) with the news that Ryan has a UCL strain.  It is still too early to tell if the injury can be treated without surgery, or if Ryan will ultimately need a Tommy John or brace procedure.

1:38PM: Dodgers starter River Ryan is done for the season after suffering an elbow injury in his last outing (per Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Manager Dave Roberts says the team is still figuring out the proper diagnosis and the next steps for the 25-year-old hurler, but he will not be able to return to the mound in 2024 (per Jack Harris of the LA Times). Even if Ryan is able to avoid a worst-case scenario of a major surgery, he simply won’t have time to rest, rehab, and return before the end of the year. The Dodgers have placed Ryan on the 15-day injured list, and recalled Landon Knack ahead of today’s series finale against the Pirates.

Ryan is widely considered one of the top pitching prospects in the Dodgers organization – if not one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Although a shoulder injury held him back at the beginning of the year, he has looked phenomenal since his return. The righty posted a 2.66 ERA over six starts at Triple-A and a 1.33 ERA across his first four starts in the majors. His four-seam fastball sits just above 96 mph, and his slider and curveball both look like they could be dominant secondary offerings. Ryan’s underlying numbers aren’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but his 4.50 SIERA and 3.97 xERA are still solid for a young pitcher who was thrust into a big league role sooner than expected.

Indeed, Ryan made his big league debut after the All-Star break because the Dodgers were desperate for pitching. Today, he has become another one of the team’s many injured starters. The situation is a little better now that Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are healthy and Jack Flaherty has entered the equation, but Ryan now joins such teammates as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May on the injured list.

It is only a matter of time before Ryan is transferred to the 60-day IL, likely when one of Max Muncy or Tommy Edman is ready to be reinstated. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters (including Jim Bowden of The Athletic) that Muncy and Edman could get back on the field during the team’s next homestand, which begins with a series against the Mariners on August 19.

Knack, 27, has made nine appearances (eight starts) for the Dodgers this year, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and 4.00 SIERA. He has a 3.97 ERA in 59 innings at Triple-A. While he is primarily a starting pitcher, he will join L.A. as additional bullpen depth, likely just until Buehler makes his expected return on Wednesday.

Phillies Claim Kyle Tyler, DFA Nick Nelson

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The Phillies have claimed right-handed pitcher Kyle Tyler off of waivers from the Marlins, the Phillies announced. He was been optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In a corresponding move, fellow right-hander Nick Nelson has been designated for assignment.

Tyler, 27, was designated for assignment on Friday, when the Marlins selected southpaw Kent Emanuel to the 40-man roster. Tyler had pitched 31 2/3 innings over eight appearances (seven starts) for Miami. He had a 5.40 ERA and a 5.11 SIERA. The righty also made 11 appearances (nine starts) for Triple-A Jacksonville with much better results, pitching to a 3.06 ERA and 4.04 FIP. His performance for the Jumbo Shrimp represented a step in the right direction for a pitcher who had a 5.60 ERA over 135 innings last season at Double-A.

Tyler is probably just an organizational depth piece for the Phillies, but that is certainly something the team could use with Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker the IL. While Walker and Suárez are on their way back, a little extra pitching depth is always valuable. What’s more, Tyler has another option year remaining, so the Phillies could easily retain him at Triple-A in 2025.

As for Nelson, 28, the right-hander has spent most of the past two seasons in the minors. He was a capable mop-up man for Philadelphia in 2022, but he struggled to transition back to a starting role at Triple-A in 2023. Over 26 appearances (five starts) with Triple-A Lehigh Valley this year, he has a 7.52 ERA and a 6.32 FIP. The Phillies clearly have not trusted him to pitch meaningful major league innings over the past two years, so it was only a matter of time before his roster spot went to a fresh arm.

Cardinals Activate Riley O’Brien From 60-Day IL, DFA Nick Robertson

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The Cardinals have activated right-handed pitcher Riley O’Brien from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. He has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. In a corresponding transaction, fellow right-hander Nick Robertson has been designated for assignment.

O’Brien, 29, has been on the injured list almost all season with a right forearm flexor strain. The Cardinals clearly like what he has to offer – he made the Opening Day roster out of camp – but they ultimately decided he is too much of an unknown quantity for a spot in the bullpen right now (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Jones notes that the decision for the final spot in the bullpen came down to O’Brien and Kyle Leahy, and the Cardinals were more confident in what Leahy brings to the table. Leahy, 27, has a 3.86 ERA and 4.46 SIERA in 37 1/3 innings this season. O’Brien, on the other hand, has only pitched 3 1/3 innings in his MLB career. His Triple-A numbers were promising last season (2.29 ERA, 3.77 FIP in 55 IP), but it’s understandable why the Cardinals would want to see more from him before throwing him back into their bullpen amid a close postseason race.

Robertson, 26, came over to the Cardinals this offseason as part of the trade return for outfielder Tyler O’Neill. He made eight appearances for St. Louis, pitching to a 4.38 ERA and 2.97 SIERA in 12 1/3 innings. However, he has a far less appealing 7.48 ERA in 21 2/3 innings at Triple-A. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, the Cardinals can choose to send him outright to Triple-A (where he is already pitching) as additional minor league pitching depth.

Diamondbacks Reinstate Merrill Kelly From 60-Day IL, DFA Humberto Castellanos

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The Diamondbacks have reinstated veteran starter Merrill Kelly from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. To make room for the right-hander on the active roster, righty reliever Scott McGough has been optioned to Triple-A Reno. Meanwhile, fellow righty Humberto Castellanos has been designated for assignment to free up a spot on the 40-man.

Kelly, now 35, was a durable and dependable starter for the Diamondbacks from 2021-23, making 90 starts and pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.16 SIERA. He got off to a strong start over his first four outings in 2024, putting up a 2.19 ERA and 3.88 SIERA in 24 2/3 innings pitched, but he suffered a teres major strain in mid-April. The right-hander will make his highly anticipated return this afternoon against the Phillies, and the D-backs will have their full rotation healthy for the first time this season. Manager Torey Lovullo now has six healthy starters at his disposal: Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson, and Kelly.

McGough, 34, signed a two-year deal with Arizona during the 2022-23 offseason. He was a serviceable middle reliever last season, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and 3.49 SIERA over 70 1/3 innings, but he has struggled in 2024. Over 29 innings, McGough has a 6.83 ERA and 5.63 SIERA. This is the third time he has been optioned this season.

As for Castellanos, 26, he has failed to make much of an impression over 32 games (16 starts) for the Diamondbacks at the big league level. Since the D-backs claimed him off of waivers from the Astros during the 2020-21 offseason, he has pitched to a 5.29 ERA and 4.89 SIERA over 100 1/3 innings as both a starter and a reliever. His minor league stats aren’t much better; he has a 4.59 ERA and 6.64 FIP at Triple-A this year. If Castellanos passes through waivers unclaimed, he will have the right to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A and elect free agency.

Rockies Select Josh Rogers, Place Dakota Hudson On 15-Day IL

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The Rockies have selected left-handed pitcher Josh Rogers from Triple-A Albuquerque, the team announced today. He will replace Dakota Hudson on the active roster; the Rockies placed Hudson on the 15-day IL with right elbow inflammation following his start last night. Colorado already had an open spot for Rogers on the 40-man roster.

Hudson, 29, had his contract selected less than 24 hours ago, and he started for the Rockies on Saturday against the Braves. He lasted only 2 2/3 innings, giving up three hits, four walks, and five earned runs. While he has struggled all season, his particular troubles last night may have had something to do with his injury. The Rockies have not yet provided many details about his status going forward.

Similar to Hudson, Rogers, 30, has already been outrighted by the Rockies once this season. He signed a minor league deal with the club this spring, and Colorado selected him to make his 2024 debut in May. The southpaw gave up seven earned runs over 9 1/3 innings before landing on the IL with a left shoulder rotator cuff strain. He was activated and DFA’d about a month later. However, like Hudson, he chose to accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, and that decision appears to have paid off. He will return to the Rockies bullpen for today’s series finale against the Braves. Rogers has a 6.71 ERA over 14 appearances (11 starts) at Triple-A this season.

Brewers Activate DL Hall From 60-Day IL

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The Brewers have activated left-hander DL Hall from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. In a pair of corresponding moves, the club placed left-hander Hoby Milner on the 15-day IL and transferred right-hander Enoli Paredes to the 60-day IL. Hall will start for Milwaukee tonight, as the Brewers attempt to complete a series sweep over the Reds (per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Hall, 25, came over to the Brewers this past offseason as part of the trade return for Corbin Burnes. While he primarily pitched out of the bullpen during brief stints with Baltimore in 2022 and ’23, he returned to a full-time starting role with Milwaukee. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with a left knee sprain just four starts into his season, and setbacks have kept him on the shelf ever since. As he rejoins the Brewers rotation, he will look to improve upon his 7.71 ERA and 5.49 SIERA over 16.1 innings this year. It remains unclear how manager Pat Murphy plans to align his rotation moving forward. He has been forced to navigate starting pitching injuries all season, but now the skipper finds himself with six capable arms: Freddy Peralta, Frankie Montas, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, and Hall.

Milner, 33, has pitched well for the Brewers this season. He ranks second on the team in relief innings, and his underlying numbers (3.26 SIERA, 3.27 xERA) are much better than his 4.92 ERA. The southpaw has been especially dominant against left-handed batters (23:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio), but he has held his own against opposite-handed opponents, much like he has throughout his tenure in Milwaukee. Over four years with the Brewers, Milner has a 2.72 FIP against lefty batters and a 4.02 FIP against right-handers. His injury, described as a left shoulder impingement, is not particularly unusual or worrisome (per McCalvy), but it will keep him out until at least August 24.

Meanwhile, Paredes saw good results (1.08 ERA) over 14 games with Milwaukee after the team selected his contract in late May. Regrettably, the 28-year-old landed on the injured list with right forearm tendinitis in early July. He will be eligible to return on September 1, but it is unclear if his injury will keep him out significantly longer. The Brewers have not provided many details about his status, but going on the 60-day IL with forearm trouble is often a bad sign.

In additional Brewers news, McCalvy reports that reliever Bryan Hudson is back in Milwaukee and should be activated soon. He has been on the IL with an oblique injury since late July. The 27-year-old southpaw has a 1.60 ERA and 2.98 SIERA in 50 2/3 innings this season. Trevor Megill, another key piece of the Brewers bullpen, will throw live batting practice tomorrow, and if all goes well, he will begin a rehab assignment after that. Megill has a 2.41 ERA and 2.93 SIERA this season. Like Hudson, he has been on the IL since late July; he has been nursing a low back strain.

NL East Notes: Harris, Laureano, Reid-Foley, Núñez, Alcantara

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Braves outfielder Michael Harris II went 3-for-4 with a home run yesterday, as the Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers fell to the Memphis Redbirds 8-2. He is now batting .421 with a 1.079 OPS over five rehab games. The 2022 NL Rookie of the Year has been out with a hamstring injury since mid-June, but if his performance at Triple-A is any indication, he certainly seems ready to return to the majors. Unfortunately for Atlanta, he is not eligible to come back until Wednesday when his 60 days on the IL are up.

Harris was off to a slow start over his first 67 games (.653 OPS, 80 wRC+), but he has always been a strong defender in center field, and he was an impact bat in the lineup in each of his first two big league seasons. He will be an immediate defensive upgrade over Jarred Kelenic in center, and if he can get back on track at the plate, his lefty bat will be a nice boost for the lineup. The Braves rank 21st in MLB with a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

Getting Harris back will be especially beneficial for Atlanta if Ramón Laureano’s heel continues to bother him. Laureano started in center field on Saturday but was removed from the game in the fourth inning with what the team described as “soreness in his right heel.” The outfielder appeared to hurt himself running out an infield single in the third, but he initially remained in the game. He came around to score on three consecutive walks. In the bottom of the third, he was involved in a misplay in shallow center field, in which four Braves defenders allowed a high pop-up to drop in between them for a double. It’s possible his sore heel caused him some trouble as he ran toward the ball. Laureano is batting .204 with a 75 wRC+ on the season, but he has looked much better since joining the Braves in mid-June, batting .269 with a 105 wRC+ over 26 games.

In further injury news from around the NL East…

  • Right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, 28, is nearing his return to the Mets, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The reliever will make a multi-inning rehab appearance with Triple-A Syracuse today. It will be his sixth rehab outing. The Mets have not offered an exact timeline for Reid-Foley, but DiComo describes him as “very close” to a return. However, Tim Britton of The Athletic provides a slightly different update, suggesting Reid-Foley “needs some time” to build up to pitching multiple innings. Regardless of the precise timeline, he should be back before the end of the month. The righty has been out since mid-June with a shoulder impingement. Prior to his injury, he was enjoying a mini-breakout season, with a 1.66 ERA and 3.99 SIERA in 21 2/3 innings pitched.
  • Reid-Foley isn’t the only 28-year-old right-handed reliever for the Mets nearing his return, as Dedniel Núñez will throw a bullpen session today (per Britton). Interestingly, Britton suggests that Núñez could make it back to the majors sooner than Reid-Foley. While Núñez is behind Reid-Foley in his rehab, Núñez has only been out since mid-July. He, too, has been enjoying a successful breakout season, with a 2.43 ERA and 2.23 SIERA in 33 1/3 innings pitched. The rookie was starting to pitch more high-leverage innings before suffering a forearm strain, and Britton says he will return to a late-inning role with the Mets.
  • Lastly, Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is making progress in his rehab from Tommy John surgery last October. He threw a sixth bullpen session on Saturday, reaching 75% intensity (per Isaac Azout of Fish On First). While the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will not pitch for Miami this season, he seems to making good progress toward a return next spring.

Rangers Select Matt Festa, DFA Brock Burke

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The Rangers have selected right-hander Matt Festa’s contract from Triple-A Round Rock, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. To make room on the 40-man roster, the team has designated left-hander Brock Burke for assignment. In a pair of additional transactions, Texas placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day IL and recalled left-hander Walter Pennington from Triple-A.

Burke, 28, has struggled mightily this season. After getting off to a rough start in April, he missed two months with a fractured hand. He didn’t look sharp upon his return either, and the Rangers optioned him to Triple-A at the end of June. He was recalled earlier this month and continued to struggle. Overall, he has a 9.22 ERA and 4.30 SIERA in 13 appearances in the majors this season. He also has a 5.31 ERA in 16 appearances at Triple-A. The Rangers have little margin for error as they attempt to gain ground in the AL West, and evidently, they decided they could no longer afford to keep Burke on the roster. He showed tremendous promise in 2022 (1.97 ERA, 3.05 SIERA in 82 1/3 innings), but he has not been able to recapture that success over the past two years.

Festa, 31, does not have much of a track record in the major leagues; he has a 4.66 ERA and 3.96 SIERA over 90 games with the Mariners and Mets from 2018-24. However, he has looked sharp at Triple-A this year, with a 2.70 ERA and 3.10 FIP over 33 games in the Padres, Mets, and Rangers’ systems. He signed a minor league contract with Texas back in July and re-upped with the team after he was released in August.

Sborz, 30, was a postseason hero last fall, but he has, unfortunately, struggled with shoulder injuries in his follow-up campaign. He has a 3.38 ERA and 3.28 SIERA in 16 innings of work, but this is now his third trip to the IL. Pennington, 26, has made two brief appearances this season. He made his MLB debut for the Royals in July, facing two batters and recording two outs. Not long after, he was included in the trade that sent Michael Lorenzen to Kansas City. Pennington made his Rangers debut in August, and the results weren’t quite as strong. He gave up a solo home run and walked three batters over a single inning of work. He has a 2.13 ERA and 3.27 across 63 1/3 innings at Triple-A this year.

The Rangers have taxed their bullpen heavily over the second half of the season as they continue to deal with injuries to the starting rotation. Jon Gray and Max Scherzer both hit the IL just before the trade deadline and, most recently, Nathan Eovaldi has dealt with tightness in his right side. Grant notes that his next start, which would have been scheduled for Thursday against the Twins, will be pushed back or skipped entirely. José Ureña will remain in the rotation for the time being, and Grant suggests Dane Dunning will likely re-join the rotation on Wednesday to fill an open space caused by Saturday’s doubleheader. It is unclear who will start for Texas in Eovaldi’s place on Thursday.

Cubs Pursued Logan O’Hoppe At Trade Deadline

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The Cubs need help behind the dish. That statement will not come as a surprise to anyone who has watched baseball on the North Side of Chicago this season. Cubs catchers are batting .199/.246/.305 with a 54 wRC+ in 2024. Those are grim numbers, even considering the lower offensive standards at the position. To add insult to injury, Cubs catchers don’t grade out well on defense either, with -4 Defensive Runs Saved (21st in MLB) and a -6 Fielding Run Value (23rd). Overall, Miguel Amaya, Christian Bethancourt, Tomás Nido, and Yan Gomes have combined for -0.9 FanGraphs WAR, last in the National League and 29th in MLB. Only the White Sox have gotten less production from behind the plate.

With all that in mind, it makes sense that the team made a serious effort to add a new backstop before the July 30 trade deadline. According to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer “aggressively pursued” catching this summer. Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels was one player he had his eye on. However, Sharma notes that the Angels “repeatedly and firmly rebuffed” Hoyer’s attempts to trade for their 24-year-old catcher. 

This lines up with everything we already knew about Chicago’s plan ahead of the deadline. The Cubs were linked to Danny Jansen, arguably the best catcher on the trade block, in mid-July. However, Hoyer later stated that he wasn’t going to make moves that would only improve the roster in 2024, but rather those that would help the team “for 2025 and beyond.” Jansen is set to reach free agency this winter, as is Carson Kelly, the only other notable catcher traded at this year’s deadline. In other words, neither matched up with what the Cubs were seeking. O’Hoppe, on the other hand, will not be eligible for arbitration until the 2026 season, and he will not reach free agency until the offseason after the 2028 campaign. Much like Isaac Paredes, O’Hoppe could have helped the Cubs compete in 2024 and for several years to come.

Yet, for the same reasons, it’s not hard to understand why the Angels had no interest in giving him up. O’Hoppe broke out at the plate during an injury-shortened 2023 campaign. In 51 games, he hit 14 home runs and put up a 113 wRC+. His .264 isolated power ranked second among primary catchers (min. 150 PA), while his .500 slugging percentage ranked fourth. The young catcher has continued to hit in 2024, slashing .260/.320/.435 with a 111 wRC+ across 101 games. He has also taken a big step forward on defense. His defensive metrics remain below average in just about every category, including pitch framing, blocking, and pop time, but he is not nearly as much of a liability as he was last season. In 2023, he produced -9 DRS and a -7 FRV in just 49 games at catcher. This year, in almost twice as many appearances, he has a much more palatable -3 DRS and -3 FRV. All told, O’Hoppe has produced 1.8 fWAR, which ranks 10th among primary catchers. Still just 24 and playing in his first full MLB season, he has plenty of time to continue to improve.

Los Angeles was quiet at the trade deadline, and reports suggested GM Perry Minasian was unlikely to trade any players who were not on expiring contracts. That turned out to be true, as relievers Carlos Estévez and Luis García were the only players the team ended up selling. One could argue the Angels should have been aggressive in shopping players with multiple years of team control, such as Tyler Anderson, Taylor Ward, and Griffin Canning. However, they had very little incentive to trade O’Hoppe, especially if they are hoping to contend again in the near future.

Thus, the Cubs struck out on O’Hoppe and ultimately decided to stick with what they had: Amaya, Bethancourt, and, once he returns from the IL, Nido. That means Amaya is the primary catcher, although Sharma notes that the team sees him as a backup for 2025 and beyond. Meanwhile, Bethancourt has been hot since he joined the team as a replacement for the injured Nido in late July. Once Nido is ready to return, Chicago will need to make a decision if he or Bethancourt will be the second-string catcher for the rest of the 2024 campaign. As for next year, Hoyer must address the catching position over the offseason. Free agent options will include Jansen, Kelly, Elias Díaz, and Jacob Stallings (if his mutual option with the Rockies is not exercised). The best internal option for the Cubs is top catching prospect Moises Ballesteros, but he is only 20 years old, and Sharma points out that the team isn’t sold on his defense. Finally, Hoyer will surely remain active in trade talks, but it’s hard to say if any big-name backstops will be on the block this winter.

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