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Cubs To Sign Trey Mancini

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The Cubs have agreed to sign Trey Mancini to a two-year contract, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link).  Mancini, a client of the Frontline agency, can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season if he amasses at least 350 plate appearances in the first year of the contract, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (via Twitter).  Also from Levine, Mancini will earn $14MM in guaranteed money over the two years of the deal, and another $7MM is available in bonus clauses related to plate appearances.

Reports linking Mancini to the Cubs first surfaced in December, and even though Chicago addressed its first base need by signing Eric Hosmer just over a week ago, the Wrigleyville club maintained its interest in Mancini’s services.  Of course, Mancini can also play both corner outfield spots in addition to first base, and Mancini’s right-handed bat provides a nice complement to lefty-swingers Hosmer and Matt Mervis in the first base/DH mix.

As Rogers indicated in a follow-up tweet, Mervis might now be slated to begin 2023 in Triple-A, rather than immediately step into a regular role in the Cubs lineup in his first taste of MLB action.  Mervis is entering only his third season of affiliated baseball, and while Mervis more or less came out of nowhere to shred minor league pitching in 2022, it looks like the Cubs would prefer to ease Mervis into the big leagues, and rely more on established veterans like Mancini and Hosmer at least in the early part of the 2023 campaign.

After spending his entire career with the Orioles, Mancini is now playing for his third organization in less than six months, following the trade deadline move that sent Mancini from Baltimore to Houston.  Mancini’s time with the Astros paid off in the biggest form possible once Houston captured the World Series, though Mancini himself wasn’t a big part of that push to the championship.  Mancini hit only .176/.258/.364 over 186 plate appearances with the Astros during the regular season, and then had only a single hit over 24 PA in the playoffs.

With this underwhelming finish in mind, it isn’t surprising that Mancini and his representatives sought out an opt-out clause, as a more impressive platform year could set Mancini up nicely for a pricier contract next winter.  Mancini turns 31 in March, but even if he re-enters the market next winter in advance of his age-32 season, the veteran should still be in position to land a solid multi-year commitment if he returns to his old form.  Mancini hasn’t been in that top form since 2019, though obviously some very difficult circumstances have interfered in his career path.

After missing the entire 2020 season due to a battle with Stage 3 colon cancer, Mancini played in 147 games with the Orioles in 2021, winning AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors for his inspirational return.  Mancini got off to a strong start at the plate that year before fading down the stretch, as he had to get re-acclimated after missing a full season.  Mancini’s traditionally strong production at Camden Yards took a dip, as the right-handed hitter was naturally impacted by the Orioles’ decision to move back the left-field fences prior to the 2022 season.  The result was a modest .283/.338/.411 slash line over 198 PA at Camden Yards last year, well below his career norms.

All in all, Mancini has hit .247/.323/.412 over 1203 PA since the start of the 2021 campaign, translating to a 104 wRC+ that is only slightly above the league average.  Between the new dimensions in Baltimore and the midseason adjustment to playing in Houston, Mancini’s bat could re-awaken simply by playing his home games in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field.  In addition, Mancini has now had a full and normal offseason, as even last winter’s preparations were interrupted by the lockout.

It has been a busy offseason for Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who has aggressively added veteran talent in order to turn the Cubs back towards contention after most of the last two seasons were spent in a rebuild.  Like Mancini’s deal, most of the contracts have been shorter-term arrangements, such as a one-year deal with Cody Bellinger, or the Hosmer signing for a minimum salary (since the Padres are still on the hook for the remainder of Hosmer’s contract).

Beyond these shorter deals, Chicago also splurged in inking Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM contract and Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal worth $68MM.  Roster Resource projected the Cubs for roughly a $176.6MM payroll before Mancini’s $7MM average annual value was added to the mix, so there could be more spending capacity for further moves considering the Cubs spent well over the $200MM mark as recently as 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bonus Pools For 2023 International Signing Market

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The 2023 international signing period opens on January 15, as the new collective bargaining agreement has formalized the mid-January start date that has been in place for the last two years.  Previously opening on July 2 in pre-pandemic years, the 2020-21 int’l signing period was moved to January 2021 once COVID-19 overhauled the baseball calendar, and for at least the length of the current CBA, the international signing window will last from January 15 to December 15 of each year.

Because the MLB Players Association continued to resist the league’s desires for an international draft system, the previous rules regarding international signings remain in place.  All 30 teams have a set bonus pool for international signings that cannot be exceeded, though signing of $10K or less don’t count against a team’s pool cap.  Clubs are once again allowed to trade bonus pool slots, as trades of pool money had been prohibited in the last two pandemic-impacted draft pool classes.

Here is what each team has available to spend in the new int’l signing window, with a tip of the hat to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez:

$6,366,900: Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins …..These were the teams who had picks in Competitive Balance Round-B of the 2022 draft.

$5,825,500: Diamondbacks, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Royals …..These teams had picks in Competitive Balance Round-A of the 2022 draft.

$5,284,000: Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, White Sox, Yankees

$4,644,000: Angels, Phillies, Red Sox…..Each of these teams surrendered $500K from their bonus pools because they signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.  Los Angeles signed Noah Syndergaard, Philadelphia signed Nick Castellanos, and Boston signed Trevor Story.

$4,144,000: Dodgers, Rangers…..These teams also signed QO-rejecting free agents during the 2021-22 offseason, as Texas took $500K penalties for both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager.  Los Angeles had to give up $1MM from its pool in order to sign Freddie Freeman, as the Dodgers received double the penalty because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Cubs Interested In Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore

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The Cubs continue to look for relief help, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports that left-handers Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore are both on the team’s radar.  It isn’t clear whether the Cubs are necessarily willing to meet either pitcher’s asking price, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had previously indicated that his team preferred one-year deals for relievers, and the Cubs have traditionally found success in adding relief pitching at lower-cost deals.

As Hoyer told Sharma and other reporters at today’s Cubs Convention fan event, this past strategy is now “a lot more difficult” in the current free agent market.  “If you look at the cost on some of the players we were able to do that on, it was really low stakes as far as what we were paying those guys.  I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past.  It’s made that job difficult.”

Of course, neither Chafin or Moore are buy-low players any longer, adding another wrinkle to Chicago’s interest.  Chafin was in fact a bounce-back type when he signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Cubs in the 2020-21 offseason, as the southpaw had struggled with the Diamondbacks in 2020 before the Cubs initially picked him up at the trade deadline.

That rough (and brief, at only 6 2/3 innings) stint with the D’Backs represented Chafin’s only real down point of the last six seasons, as the lefty has been an otherwise solid and occasionally dominant relief arm.  Last year with the Tigers, Chafin posted a 2.83 ERA and an above-average 27.6% strikeout rate, and 51.3% grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings, giving him a solid platform to re-enter the free agent market.  Chafin declined his $6.5MM player option for 2023, opting to leave Detroit in search of a more lucrative multi-year offer.  Chafin certainly has familiarity with Wrigley Field, and could theoretically have interest in a reunion — especially with the Cubs now looking to contend after a short rebuilding period.

MLBTR listed Chafin 39th on our ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting the veteran southpaw for a two-year, $18MM deal.  Moore was an honorable mention on the list, as while he only has one season of full-time relief work under his belt, Moore looked quite sharp in his first year as a bullpen regular.  The left-hander posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings with the Rangers, even if a 3.69 SIERA and a .257 BABIP indicated Moore enjoyed some good fortune.

Still, secondary metrics tended to back up Moore’s revival.  He had a strong 27.3% strikeout rate and did an outstanding job of limiting hard contact, as both his hard-hit ball and barrel rates ranked above the 91st percentile of all pitchers.  However, control was still a major issue for Moore, as his 12.5% walk rate sat near the bottom of the league.

Signing either Chafin or Moore would add some left-handed balance to a Chicago bullpen that is mostly full of right-handers, as Brandon Hughes looks to be the only southpaw assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster.  The Cubs did bolster their left-handed depth by signing Roenis Elias, Ryan Borucki, and Eric Stout to minor league deals, while Anthony Kay was claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays last month.

Hoyer said that “bench and bullpen” are remaining target areas for the Cubs, with Sharma noting that the team could be looking for a player who can serve as a DH and possibly play some first base.  Rather than free agency, the Cubs could potentially look to address their needs in a trade, and perhaps to this end, Sharma writes that the versatile Zach McKinstry “has also been a popular name when other teams call the Cubs regarding trade possibilities.”  Sharma opines that Chicago could possibly trade McKinstry and replace him from within with Miles Mastrobuoni, a similar player who (unlike McKinstry) has minor league options remaining.

John Mozeliak Discusses Contract, Cardinals’ Offseason, Payroll

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John Mozeliak’s most recent contract extension with the Cardinals covered the 2021-23 seasons, yet the president of baseball operations doesn’t seem too concerned about his status as he enters the final year of that contract.  Speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) today at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up fan event, Mozeliak said that he’d spoken to ownership about a possible new deal, but “I’m not overly focused on my contract or what 2024 looks like yet.”

Since Mozeliak also noted that “I don’t want to be a distraction first and foremost,” it seems possible that we might not hear any details about future negotiations until (or if) a new deal is officially announced.  Mozeliak has been in charge of the Cardinals’ front office since October 2007, and looking over that long history, two of his past extensions (in 2010 and 2013) weren’t signed until Mozeliak was in the final year of his deal.  However, the Cardinals were a little more proactive in locking up Mozeliak in his two most recent extensions — his current pact was signed in November 2019, when Mozeliak still had a year to do on his previous deal.

This all being said, there isn’t much to indicate that the Cardinals are actually thinking of moving on from Mozeliak, who has been with the organization in various roles since 1995.  Since Mozeliak took over from Walt Jocketty following the 2007 campaign, St. Louis has enjoyed 15 consecutive winning seasons, 10 postseason appearances, and a World Series championship in 2011.  Last October, the Cards signed two of Mozeliak’s top lieutenants (GM Michael Girsch and assistant GM/scouting director Randy Flores) to multi-year extensions, hinting that upper management had an interest in keeping the front office mix in place.

It doesn’t mean that Mozeliak isn’t facing some pressure heading into 2023, given the Cardinals’ relative lack of postseason success.  Over the last eight seasons, St. Louis has only a 1-5 record in playoff series, with the 2019 NLDS triumph over the Braves representing the only October trip that didn’t result in a one-and-done.

In terms of bolstering the 2023 roster for a deeper playoff run, the Cardinals had two major roster questions answered early, as the team re-signed Adam Wainwright, and Nolan Arenado chose not to opt out of the five years (and $144MM) remaining on his contract.  Furthermore, the Cards also made a splashy free agent signing, inking Willson Contreras to a five-year pact that installed the catcher as Yadier Molina’s successor behind the plate.

Besides the Contreras deal, however, it has been a relatively quiet winter to date, and Mozeliak noted that some of the front office’s plans fell through.  “When we reflect back on the offseason, there were certainly some things we were hoping to do that we weren’t able to accomplish…A lot of things sort of unfolded or transpired that necessarily didn’t break the way we had hoped.”

For instance, a left-handed bat was on the Cardinals’ wish list, though the team isn’t necessarily short on such hitters — Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan are left-handed batters, while Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson are switch-hitters.  It doesn’t make for a clear path to playing time for a veteran hitter, which Mozeliak suggested was a stumbling block in the Cards’ talks.  “I don’t think we were a very compelling team to come to because when you look at our roster, there is competition…and I think some people just did not find that interesting,” Mozeliak said.  “Typically in negotiations, it really comes down to money and years, but there’s also that factor of fitting in as that player.  We were having a hard time convincing [them] this was an impactful-type role given the competition we have.”

Of course, there’s still plenty of time left before Opening Day or even the start of Spring Training, so the Cardinals will continue to look.  Whether a true big-ticket addition (via a trade or from what remains of the free agent market) is possible perhaps seems doubtful, as Mozeliak noted that improvements from such players as Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Jack Flaherty might be the key factors in whatever success the 2023 squad enjoys.  The internal depth on the roster is one reason that Mozeliak said the Cards didn’t do much exploration into adding a high-end starting pitcher or shortstop during the winter.

With Contreras as the only major new face on the roster, the St. Louis payroll is slated to be only marginally higher than its 2022 figure, which somewhat runs counter to Mozeliak’s assertion last fall that the Cards were ready to do some spending.  The rise in free agent spending throughout baseball left the Cardinals hesitant about making any big splurges beyond Contreras, but Mozeliak did hint that the Cards (traditionally an active team at the trade deadline) would be prepared to expand payroll during the season.

“Do we have the bandwidth to still add to this club throughout the year?  Yes, we do.  Is the market something that had an adverse effect [on] us spending? The answer is of course,” Mozeliak said.  “The way we operate is that we’re going to invest in what we think are smart investments, prudent, but also investments that we understand could have a backside of negativity or loss.  Having said that, you’re still not going to do something just to do something, and you’re not going to spend just to spend.  We like our team.  If we didn’t like our team we’d be making adjustments to our team.”

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

Angels Sign Taylor Jones To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have signed first baseman/outfielder Taylor Jones to a minor league contract, according to Jones’ official MLB.com profile page.  Jones entered into minor league free agency after turning down an outright assignment from the Giants back in November.

Jones (who turned 29 last month) has appeared in each of the last three MLB seasons, all with the Astros.  Of his 131 career plate appearances, 108 came in the 2021 campaign — Jones had only 22 PA in his 2020 debut season and then made just one plate appearance in a single big league game in 2022.  Jones was hampered by a back injury that kept him from game action until June of last season, and though he still had solid Triple-A numbers, Houston designated him for assignment in September and the Giants claimed Jones into their organization.

Jones has only a .234/.260/.395 slash line to show for his 131 PA in the Show, but his bat has been much more productive in Triple-A ball.  Jones has hit .279/.377/.485 with 49 home runs over 1257 PA at the Triple-A level, though with the caveat that Jones has likely gotten some benefit from playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

That PCL tenure will continue with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate, and Jones can provide the Halos with some depth at multiple positions.  Jones has played mostly first base over his career, but has also seen some time as a third baseman and a corner outfielder (primarily in left field).  Los Angeles is already pretty deep in right-handed bats and Shohei Ohtani’s presence pretty much rules out DH opportunities, though depending on how the Angels juggle their roster, Jones might find a niche as a right-handed complement to Jared Walsh, who is slated to be the regular first baseman.

Mariners Sign AJ Pollock

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The Mariners added a right-handed bat to their outfield mix Thursday, formally announcing their previously reported one-year signing of veteran AJ Pollock.  The Excel Sports Management client will be guaranteed $7MM on the deal and can earn an additional $3MM via incentives.

The Twins and Rangers were also known to have interest in Pollock, whose entry into the offseason market was at least somewhat unexpected.  Pollock batted a disappointing .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2022, yet he still opted to decline his $13MM player option for the 2023 season.  That option contained a hefty $5MM buyout, so between that money and the $7MM salary Pollock is receiving on his new deal with Seattle, the 35-year-old’s opt-out decision left $1MM in guaranteed money on the table.  With enough playing time to reach his contract’s incentives, however, he could match or even surpass that sum.

Pollock catches on with an intriguing Mariners team that reached the ALDS last season and is hopeful of taking more steps forward into World Series contention.  Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to Pollock, as Dipoto was working in the Diamondbacks’ front office when Arizona drafted Pollock with the 17th overall pick of the 2009 draft.

With center fielder Julio Rodriguez established as the bedrock of the Seattle outfield, the M’s have spent a lot of their offseason business on reinforcing and sorting out the corner outfield positions.  Mitch Haniger departed in free agency and Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker were traded, while the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays to act as the new everyday right fielder (and probable part-time DH).  Signing Pollock puts another right-handed bat into left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell adding left-handed depth as platoon partners for Pollock or as bench options.

Some level of platoon shielding might be necessary given how Pollock’s numbers against right-handed pitching drastically fell off in 2022.  Always a solid bat against righty pitching in the past, Pollock hit only .231/.284/.309 over 394 plate appearances against righties last year.  This was the root of Pollock’s offensive struggles, as he continued to mash lefties to the tune of a .286/.316/.619 slash line and 11 homers over 133 trips to the plate.

In terms of overall Statcast metrics, Pollock’s 2022 performance didn’t differ all that greatly from previous seasons, though his hard-contract rate took a notable drop from 2021.  His speed and baserunning also took a hit, perhaps due to hamstring injuries in each of the last two seasons.  The biggest issue was a lack of power, as after posting a .227 Isolated Power number from 2017-21, Pollock dropped to only .143 in 2022.

Playing at spacious T-Mobile Park might not help Pollock regain all of that power stroke, though there are some reasons the Mariners can be hopeful about a rebound.  If Pollock is “only” a lefty-masher again, the M’s theoretically have enough left-handed outfield candidates to pick up the slack.  Moving back from less than a full-time role might be helpful for Pollock, as his 138 games played last season represented the second-highest total of his 11 MLB seasons — it could be that staying relatively healthy last year actually hampered Pollock or wore him down to some extent.  A normal offseason and Spring Training routine heading into 2023 would be just what the 35-year-old needs to produce a bounce-back year.

Just yesterday on MLBTR, Steve Adams wrote about the Mariners’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and the broader sense that the M’s were having a strangely quiet offseason for a team that seemed poised to make some splashy final touches to a contender.  Adding Pollock for $7MM won’t quell speculation that ownership isn’t stretching the budget as much as expected, and yet the signing can also be viewed as a relatively inexpensive but smart investment.  Pollock was posting big numbers as recently as 2021, he has been a solid performer for most of his career, and he brings some more veteran experience and championship pedigree (Pollock was a big part of the Dodgers’ 2020 title team) to the young Mariners.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the base terms (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the additional incentives.

Liam Hendriks To Begin Treatment For Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

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White Sox closer Liam Hendriks announced on his Instagram page tonight that he will be starting treatment Monday for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

“Hearing the word ’cancer’ came as a shock to my wife and I, as it does to millions of families each year.  However, I am resolved to embrace the fight and overcome this new challenge with the same determination I have used when facing other obstacles in my life,” Hendriks wrote.  “My treatment begins tomorrow, and I am confident that I will make a full recovery and be back on the mound as soon as possible.  I know with the support of my wife, my family, my teammates, and the Chicago White Sox organization, along with the treatment and care from my doctors, I will get through this.”

White Sox GM Rick Hahn also released a statement on behalf of the team: “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player.  I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.  Knowing everyone involved, especially Liam, we are optimistic he will pitch again for the White Sox as soon as viable.  In the meantime, we all will do everything in our power to support our teammate and his family as they face this challenge, while also respecting their privacy.  We do not expect to have any updates on Liam’s playing status prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Hendriks celebrates his 34th birthday in February, and the native of Perth, Australia is coming off his third All-Star season.  Beginning his big league career with the Twins in 2011, it took Hendriks until 2015 (as a member of the Blue Jays) to really break out, which kicked off a run of four solid but unspectacular seasons of bullpen work.  In 2019, however, Hendriks took things to another level, as he has emerged as one of the game’s best closers after posting a 2.26 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate over 239 innings since start of the 2019 campaign.

All three of Hendriks’ All-Star selections have come in that dominant four-year stretch, and it led to a big free agent payday during the 2020-21 offseason.  Hendriks is two seasons into a three-year, $54MM deal with the White Sox that includes a unique $15MM club option for 2024 that also carries a $15MM buyout (which would be covered in deferred payments if the Sox did decline the option).

Beyond his success on the field, Hendriks is also a widely popular player, beloved by teammates and fans alike.  Today’s news has already started an outpouring of support for Hendriks on social media, and we at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in wishing him a full recovery.

Hahn’s statement provided some rough idea of a timeline for how long Hendriks might be sidelined, though obviously the situation is very fluid.  Pitching is naturally just about the last thing on Hendriks’ mind at the moment, and for the White Sox as well, simply getting their friend and teammate healthy is infinitely more important than roster impact.

There is no easy way to replace Hendriks in Chicago’s bullpen, as while Kendall Graveman is probably the likeliest candidate to step in as closer, bumping everyone up the depth chart leaves the White Sox relief corps thinner as a whole.  There had been some trade buzz surrounding Hendriks earlier this winter, as the Mets and other teams had interest in adding a high-end reliever, and there was some thought that the White Sox could move Hendriks (and his contract) as a way to address other roster needs without expanding the budget.

Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly.  He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.  Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training.  The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list.  He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021.  The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances.  One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021.  Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential.  He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season.  With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter.  Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium.  In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL.  Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery.  Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms.  Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal.  Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches.  Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

How Much More Do The Padres Have To Spend?

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After exceeding the luxury tax limit in each of the last two seasons, the Padres aren’t slowing down their spending.  Signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM deal was the splashiest move of a busy offseason, but San Diego also made significant investments to re-sign Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, as well as bring in other new talents in Seth Lugo and Matt Carpenter.  The Padres also checked in on any number of other players, including Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Christian Vazquez, Jose Abreu, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, and Nathan Eovaldi.

The result is a projected $249.4MM payroll for 2023 is the highest in club history, as well as estimated tax number of roughly $266.6MM.  However, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, “people familiar with the team’s thinking say the Padres are up against a self-prescribed spending limit.”  This limit isn’t necessarily absolute, since as Lin notes, the internal spending limit is ultimately up to owner Peter Seidler, who might decide to again green-light a big expenditure if it means getting the Padres a step closer to a World Series title.

Still, it would seem like payroll space might be at something of a premium, given San Diego’s most recent moves.  Adam Engel was signed to a one-year guaranteed deal, and while terms aren’t yet known, it’s safe to assume Engel isn’t getting more than the $2.3MM he was projected to earn in arbitration.  Brent Honeywell was signed to a split contract, while Wilmer Font and Eric Hanhold were inked to minor league deals.  Naturally, all teams (no matter the payroll) look for lower-cost depth as the offseason goes on, but the Padres still have some notable needs that would require a bigger fix.

President of baseball operations AJ Preller is no stranger to creative trades, so the Padres could look to address those needs while freeing up some salary at the same time.  For instance, the Padres have at least some openness to moving infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has a $7MM luxury tax number (based on average annual value) and who is owed $25MM over next two seasons.  Trent Grisham has also been floated as a possible trade candidate, though Grisham is among the less-expensive members of San Diego’s roster.  Dating back to last season, there has long been speculation that Blake Snell (owed $16MM in 2023) could be dealt, even if such a move wouldn’t help fix the depth issues in the Padres’ rotation.

Between trades and promotions, the Padres’ farm system has lost a lot of its depth; Baseball America rated the Padres only 23rd of 30 teams in its midseason organizational talent rankings.  As such, this could complicate the concept of San Diego attaching a prospect or two to an undesirable contract in trade talks.  For instance, Drew Pomeranz missed all of 2022 recovering from flexor tendon surgery, and the reliever is owed $10MM in 2023.  A rebuilding team could be enticed to take Pomeranz’s deal off the Padres’ books if some minor league talent was added as a sweetener, except San Diego might not have the prospects to spare.

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