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Latest On The Nationals’ First Base Situation

By Mark Polishuk | December 26, 2019 at 2:47pm CDT

The Nationals had interest in switch-hitter Justin Smoak before Smoak signed with the Brewers last week, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports.  With Smoak off the board, the Nats will continue to explore left-handed hitting options for both first base and their lineup as a whole, given their overall right-handed tilt.  As Dougherty notes, it’s quite possible that the Nationals bring back Matt Adams as that lefty bat, and Adams will again team with Howie Kendrick and (the still-to-be-signed) Ryan Zimmerman in a timeshare at first base.

Kendrick is already back in the fold, rejoining the World Series champions on a one-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money ($4MM in 2020 salary, and either a $2.25MM buyout of a mutual option for 2021, or $6.5MM in 2021 if both sides exercise that option).  The versatile Kendrick spent the majority of his time as a first baseman in 2019, though he also saw action at both second base and third base. Those other two infield positions are now in a state of flux, what with Anthony Rendon gone to the Angels and Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera currently free agents, so Washington could prefer to deploy Kendrick around the infield rather than commit him to a larger portion of the first base playing time.

Zimmerman, of course, is a free agent himself, though the longtime District stalwart has indicated that he will either return to the Nationals on a year-to-year basis or potentially retire.  “Both he and the Nationals remain willing to negotiate a cheap, one-year contract,” Dougherty writes, and “about $4MM has been floated as a price the sides could agree on.”

It seems to be more or less just a matter of time before Zimmerman officially returns to the fold for his 16th season in a Nats jersey, and his presence likely indicates that D.C. will stick with a platoon situation at first base.  The club “ultimately decided that the price was too high” for Smoak, whose one-year deal with Milwaukee is worth $5MM in guaranteed money.  It wasn’t a hefty figure, though perhaps too much for a Nationals team that is looking for a platoon partner rather than more of a full-time option like Smoak.

Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland, Greg Bird, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Neil Walker are a few of the left-handed or switch-hitting first base options on the open market, though Adams represents a known quantity for the Nats.  Over 610 plate appearances since joining the Nationals in August 2018, Adams has hit 38 homers with a .240/.302/.485 slash line.  Long a force against right-handed pitching, Adams’ numbers against righties dipped in everything but the slugging department last season, though Dougherty said that Adams was bothered with some shoulder problems.  Washington declined its end of Adams’ $4MM mutual option for 2020, making the 31-year-old into a free agent.

If the Nationals can find a power bat at another position, Dougherty writes that the team could simply just go with Zimmerman and Kendrick as the all right-handed first base platoon, given Kendrick’s solid numbers against same-sided pitching.  The Nats continue to be one of the favorites to land Josh Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman, and, should Donaldson sign elsewhere, there have also been whispers that D.C. could try to acquire Kris Bryant from the Cubs.  Both Donaldson and Bryant are also right-handed bats, though with either of them playing third base, the Nationals could then explore adding a multi-positional left-handed bench bat, or one that could share time at second base with rookie Carter Kieboom or the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo.

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Washington Nationals Howie Kendrick Justin Smoak Matt Adams Ryan Zimmerman

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Phillies, Cubs, Lindor, Donaldson, Athletics

By Mark Polishuk | December 25, 2019 at 11:29am CDT

Nothing says Christmas morning like some hot stove baseball talk!  Click here to read the transcript of this morning’s chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk

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MLBTR Chats

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AL Notes: McCullers, Cron, Schoop, Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | December 25, 2019 at 8:29am CDT

Lance McCullers Jr. has “been dying” to return to the mound, and “is ready for the season to start tomorrow if it could,” the Astros righty tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.  Recovery from Tommy John surgery in November 2018 kept McCullers sidelined for all of last season, though he said he is on track for Spring Training and Opening Day after completing his rehab last month.  McCullers’ return will be a boost to an Astros rotation that has already lost Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley in free agency, and the 26-year-old is still looking to fully break out in what would be his fifth MLB season.  Injuries have limited the former 41st-overall pick to just 453 2/3 innings in his career, though McCullers has pitched well (3.67 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.86 K/BB rate) when healthy and has both an impressive postseason resume and an All-Star appearance to his name.

More Christmas Day notes from the American League…

  • Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are both looking forward to new opportunities in the Motor City, as the two newest Tigers told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News).  In Cron’s case, he said the Tigers “were on me from the beginning” after the first baseman was non-tendered by the Twins.  “The thing that stood out the most was just how much Detroit wanted me….They told my agent early on they wanted me to be a part of this thing and their persistence never stopped,” Cron said.  “Anytime somebody wants you that bad, it feels good and it made my interest higher and higher.”
  • Several Orioles questions are addressed by The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (subscription required) during a reader mailbag piece, including the issue of just how much financial support GM Mike Elias has at his disposal as he rebuilds the roster.  For example, Baltimore’s decision to trade Jonathan Villar to the Marlins for a fairly minimal prospect return created the impression that the O’s were more concerned with getting Villar’s $10.4MM projected arbitration salary off the books than they were in getting full value back for the talented infielder.  In Connolly’s view, “Elias’ hands are tied more than he would have preferred,” perhaps due to such factors as low attendance at Camden Yards and the likelihood that the Orioles will have to start more evenly sharing their MASN broadcast revenue with the Nationals.  It doesn’t seem that the O’s will be able to explore such tactics as offering to take a bad contract off another team’s hands if that team also includes some prospects in the trade.  That said, it isn’t as if the Orioles are running a total bare-bones operation — Connolly notes that ownership has invested in the Orioles’ infrastructure, giving Elias more modernized analytics and international scouting departments.
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Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Notes C.J. Cron Jonathan Schoop Lance McCullers Jr.

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NL Notes: Cervelli, Carlson, Garcia, Musgrove

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2019 at 12:20am CDT

The latest from the National League…

  • The Marlins are trying to work out a contract with catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Injuries have plagued Cervelli over the last several seasons, most notably (and seriously) a series of concussions.  Cervelli was limited to only 48 games for the Pirates and Braves in 2019 due to concussion symptoms, yet it was as recently as 2018 that Cervelli hit .259/.378/.431 with 12 homers over 404 plate appearances for Pittsburgh.  The 33-year-old backstop (notably, a former Yankees teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter) would act as a veteran backup to Jorge Alfaro in Miami.
  • Saturday’s trade between the Cardinals and Rangers that sent Adolis Garcia to Texas had roots at the Winter Meetings, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, as the Cards were known to be shopping their surplus of right-handed hitting outfielders.  With this “head start on talks” about Garcia, the Cardinals expected Texas or another club to step up with a suitable trade offer when Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week.  Moving Garcia eliminated one name from a still-crowded Cardinals outfield, so more moves could still be in the offing for St. Louis.  One player who doesn’t seem likely to be moved is top prospect Dylan Carlson, as the Cardinals unsurprisingly “have had near zero interest in including” Carlson in any trade talks this winter.
  • Though the demand for pitching continues to increase and the Pirates could be entering into something of a rebuild period under new GM Ben Cherington, right-hander Joe Musgrove might not be a trade candidate, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  “I seriously doubt [the Pirates] would talk about him.  They may say they’d talk about him, but they’re not going to trade him,” a official on a rival team told Olney.  Musgrove just turned 27 and is arbitration-eligible for only the first time, projected by MLBTR to earn $3.4MM.  That’s a more than affordable price for the low-payroll Bucs, considering that Musgrove posted a 4.44 ERA, 4.03 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 over 170 1/3 innings last season, and generated 5.5 fWAR in 2018-19.  The Blue Jays are one team known to have discussed Musgrove in trade talks this winter, though those discussions reportedly amounted to little.
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Miami Marlins Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Adolis Garcia Dylan Carlson Francisco Cervelli Joe Musgrove

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Lindor, Clevinger, BoSox, Price, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | December 22, 2019 at 9:27pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk

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MLBTR Chats

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Latest On Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market

By Mark Polishuk | December 22, 2019 at 6:10pm CDT

There has been widespread interest in left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has become even more of a prized commodity since he is now the only starting pitcher remaining within the top 38 players on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  The current field of suitors appears to consist of seven teams, as listed by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), give or take one unconfirmed team and, of course, the ever-popular “mystery team.”

Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins.  The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago.  Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record).  With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.

The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest.  While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.

The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019.  Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season.  Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.

Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu.  Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM.  Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.

The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers’ contract for weeks.  Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips.  The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform.  Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.

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Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Hyun-Jin Ryu Mystery Team

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Angels Sign Julio Teheran

By Mark Polishuk | December 21, 2019 at 4:35pm CDT

DECEMBER 21, 4:35PM: Teheran’s deal with the Angels is now official, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

DECEMBER 19: The Angels and right-hander Julio Teheran have agreed to a one-year contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Teheran will earn $9MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports.  Teheran is represented by the Wasserman agency.

After spending his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Teheran will now head west to join what the Angels hope will be a greatly improved pitching staff.  Los Angeles has been linked to numerous top free agent starters, though their pitching acquisitions have thus far been more modest, between signing Teheran and trading four minor league pitchers to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy.  While putting Teheran and Bundy behind Shohei Ohtani still represents an upgrade for the Halos, one suspects the Angels will still look to add a topline arm rather than count on Ohtani to be an ace in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

Given the amount of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years, Teheran’s durability is a big plus.  The righty has averaged 191 innings per season from 2013-19, with only two minimal injured list stints (for a thumb contusion and a lat strain) in that span.  While Teheran has two All-Star appearances to his name and looked for a time like he could become the ace of the Braves’ staff, his last three seasons have been more modest.

From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames.  While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance.  He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater.  (In more positive Statcast news, Teheran had above-average fastball spin and finished in the 84th percentile in terms of curveball spin.)

Given these less-than-impressive advanced metrics, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the Braves chose to buy out the final year of Teheran’s contract for $1MM rather than pay him a $12MM salary for 2020.  (Teheran was playing on a six-year, $32.4MM extension signed prior to the 2014 season.)  The one-year guarantee from L.A. was also less than the two-year, $18MM MLBTR projected for him at the outset of the offseason.  The Teheran signing looks somewhat akin to the short-term signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill that Angels GM Billy Eppler orchestrated last winter, though obviously Eppler will be hoping for much more than the near-minimal return Harvey and Cahill brought to the 2019 Angels.

With Teheran now in the fold, the Angels have a projected luxury tax payroll of just over $185.5MM, as per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  There’s still plenty of daylight between the Angels (who have never paid a tax penalty) and the $208MM luxury tax threshold, so Los Angeles has room to still make more additions to the pitching staff or the roster as a whole.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Transactions Julio Teheran

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White Sox To Sign Gio Gonzalez

By Mark Polishuk | December 20, 2019 at 4:08pm CDT

DECEMBER 20: Gonzalez is slated to receive a $5MM guarantee, per James Fegan of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll be paid $4.5MM for the coming season, with $1MM in incentives, before the club decides between a $7MM option and $500K buyout.

DECEMBER 19: The White Sox are in agreement with left-hander Gio Gonzalez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to break the news that Gonzalez and the Sox were nearing a contract.  Gonzalez is represented by CAA Sports.

Gonzalez represents Chicago’s first major pitching acquisition of the offseason, after the Sox were widely expected to target rotation help.  While the White Sox have thus far been linked to several big name hurlers on the free agent and trade fronts, the 34-year-old Gonzalez is a less-heralded veteran who still offers some significant upside to the 2020 staff.

Gonzalez was actually drafted by the White Sox (38th overall) back in 2004 but never played for the team, as he was sent to the Phillies as a player to be named later in the November 2005 deal that brought Jim Thome to the Windy City.  Over 1901 1/3 career innings with the A’s, Nationals, and Brewers, Gonzalez has established himself as a usually-durable starter who can miss bats (8.6 K/9), limit free passes (3.8 BB/9), keep the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), and limit home run damage (0.8 HR/9).

Gonzalez came close to matching all of these career numbers in 2019, and his 3.50 ERA over 87 1/3 innings with Milwaukee also fell near his 3.68 career ERA.  The big outlier, however, was the lack of innings, as Gonzalez spent almost two months on the injured list due to a dead arm.  The southpaw already got off to an abbreviated start to the 2019 campaign since he didn’t sign until March 19 (a minor league deal with the Yankees), and missed much of Spring Training rather than going through a normal ramp-up process to Opening Day.

With a full offseason to prepare, Gonzalez could very well return to his normal self next year, which would be a nice boost to a young White Sox rotation.  Ace Lucas Giolito is the only projected 2020 rotation member coming off a quality season, as Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level, with Lopez taking a step back after a promising 2018.  Gonzalez will now join that trio as Chicago’s starting four, with Dylan Covey, and veteran swingman Ross Detwiler in line to compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Michael Kopech is also expected to be in the mix as he returns from undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2018.

It isn’t quite yet the pitching staff that you would expect from a contending team, which is why the White Sox are likely to keep up their efforts to acquire more front-of-the-rotation help.  The Sox have been linked to such names as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price in recent days, though came up in efforts to sign Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jordan Lyles, and Cole Hamels.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Transactions Gio Gonzalez

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NL East Notes: Bumgarner, Ryu, Cespedes, Nationals, Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 8:43pm CDT

The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes.  Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range.  Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.

The latest from around the NL East…

  • Could Yoenis Cespedes be a trade chip?  A deal seems unlikely, but MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets have received some trade interest in the outfielder in the wake of last week’s news that Cespedes’ salary has been reduced to less than $10MM, though with significant incentives that could make it worth $20MM (assuming Cespedes gets on the field at all in 2020, of course).  Cespedes has a full no-trade clause, though DiComo speculates that Cespedes might welcome a change of scenery to a team that could offer him DH at-bats, or just to get away from “a team that successfully filed a grievance against him.”  It could be that rival teams are open to absorbing Cespedes’ contract as a method of acquiring some younger talent from New York, similar to how the Giants recently took Zack Cozart’s salary off the Angels’ hands in order to land shortstop prospect Will Wilson, or how the Mets themselves are trying to attach a younger player to Jeurys Familia or Jed Lowrie in a trade.
  • The Nationals’ fifth starter competition is examined by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, who reports that Erick Fedde has a minor league option remaining.  This might not bode well for Fedde’s chances, as the Nats could send him down to Triple-A in favor of Austin Voth or Joe Ross, who are both out of options.  That’s assuming, of course, that D.C. ends up going forward with one of these three in-house arms as the fifth starter.  Fortier notes that the team was seemingly satisfied with this same trio last winter before signing Jeremy Hellickson prior to Spring Training, so it isn’t out of the question that the World Series champs could pursue another low-cost veteran before the offseason is out.
  • We haven’t heard much about David Phelps about this offseason, but Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer feels the right-hander would be a good (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the Phillies bullpen.  After missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, Phelps had a solid comeback year in 2019, posting a 3.41 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings for the Cubs and Blue Jays.  Phelps pitched under Phils manager Joe Girardi with the Yankees in 2012-14, and when asked about the reliever at the Winter Meetings, Girardi praised Phelps’ versatility, game preparation skills, and good numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.
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Atlanta Braves New York Mets Notes Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Austin Voth David Phelps Erick Fedde Hyun-Jin Ryu Joe Ross Madison Bumgarner Yoenis Cespedes

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Padres Sign Jimmy Yacabonis To Minors Deal

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 7:08pm CDT

The Padres have signed right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis to a minor league contract, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).

Over his three MLB seasons, Yacabonis has seen action as both a starter and a reliever for the Orioles, though he hasn’t found much success in either role.  The 27-year-old has a 5.75 ERA over 101 2/3 career innings (starting 11 of 55 games), with a 6.6 K/9 and only a 1.32 K/BB rate.  Yacabonis has also been plagued by the long ball over the last two seasons in particular, with a 1.9 HR/9 over his last 81 frames of work.

Yacabonis does have a live arm and a 94mph fastball, so there’s little risk for the Padres in taking to him to Spring Training and seeing if they can unlock some potential in the New Jersey native.  Yacabonis will see some familiar faces from Baltimore, as former Orioles coaches Wayne Kirby and Bobby Dickerson and former O’s utilityman Ryan Flaherty are all on San Diego’s coaching staff, and of course former O’s star Manny Machado is now holding down third base for the Padres.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Jimmy Yacabonis

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