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MLBTR Originals

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This week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors team…

  • The Nationals have thus far been unsuccessful in their attempts to land a closer, and Jeff Todd runs down the list of late-inning relievers the Nats could still pursue in free agent or in the trade market.  (Not to mention the potential in-house bullpen candidates who could step into a closing role.)  In a poll of MLBTR readers, over 55% feel Washington will find its next closer via a trade.
  • In another MLBTR poll, Connor Byrne asks readers which team will sign Mark Trumbo.  Over 26% of you believe Trumbo will return to the Orioles, which could make sense given that another team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign the free agent slugger.
  • With several of the winter’s top free agents already off the board, Charlie Wilmoth looks at the top ten names remaining from MLBTR’s original Top 50 free agents ranking from the beginning of the offseason.  Some very notable names remain unsigned, such as Edwin Encarnacion (#2 on the original ranking), Trumbo (#8) and Ivan Nova (#10).
  • Speaking of the free agent market, a reminder: those who entered the 2016-17 MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest can check your progress on our leaderboard.

Quick Hits: Lagares, Giants, Lopez, Romo, Holland, Cole

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No-trade protection (whether in the form of contract clauses or 10-and-5 rights) have long been a factor in deal-making.  MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince chronicles some famous instances throughout baseball history of players blocking trades, and some current players mentioned on the rumor mill whose ability to be moved is complicated by their own full or partial no-trade clauses.  Here’s more from around baseball…

  • Mets center fielder Juan Lagares suffered an injury while making a diving catch for his Dominican winter league team, ESPN’s Adam Rubin reports.  X-rays were negative, though Lagares will return to New York to be examined by team doctors.  Lagares has himself received some trade attention this offseason but New York wants to keep the slick-fielding but light-hitting outfielder in a backup role.
  • It doesn’t look like the Giants will be re-signing free agents Gregor Blanco, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Angel Pagan, Jake Peavy or Sergio Romo, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  Romo has received “at least a couple of offers” from other clubs, according to Giants sources.  Lopez is likely to retire unless he gets “a great offer” from an East Coast team so he can stay close to his home in Georgia.
  • GM David Stearns declined to say whether or not the Brewers were one of the teams Greg Holland personally met with at the Winter Meetings, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports.  The Brewers did scout Holland’s showcase last month, however, so the Crew can be added to the long list of teams that have some degree of interest in Holland after his return from Tommy John surgery.  The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Twins, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Blue Jays and Royals are all known to have sent scouts to the showcase or have other been linked to Holland this winter.
  • Gerrit Cole tells MLB.com’s Adam Berry that he has yet to talk to the Pirates about his 2017 contract.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Cole to earn $4.2MM in his first time through the arbitration process following a season that saw him post a 3.88 ERA, 2.72 K/BB rate and 7.6 K/9 over 116 innings.  While the numbers are solid, they were also Cole’s worst in his four big league seasons, as he suffered through an injury-plagued year.  This performance dip and rather checkered health history could be reasons why the Pirates aren’t planning to discuss an extension with Cole and agent Scott Boras over the winter, though Cole said he is healthy and will begin his offseason throwing program on Monday.

AL Notes: Bautista, Saunders, Holliday, Lewis, Angels

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Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and Jay Alou (Jose Bautista’s agent) have remained in contact since speaking on the final day of the Winter Meetings, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi tweets.  It seemed like the door was more or less closed on a reunion between the two sides, though the fact that talks re-opened during the Meetings and have apparently continued represents notable progress.  If the qualifying offer and accompanying draft pick compensation has indeed been hampering Bautista’s market, re-signing with the Jays would seem like a logical avenue for Bautista.  From Toronto’s perspective, the team would have to see enough value in bringing Bautista back into the fold that it would be willing to pass on the first-round compensation pick the Jays would receive if Bautista signed elsewhere.

Here’s more from around the American League….

  • We’ve already heard about the Indians’ one-year offer to Mike Napoli, though earlier this week, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported (Twitter link) that the Tribe also offered one-year contracts to Matt Holliday and Michael Saunders.  Holliday was known to be a Cleveland target and he ended up signing a one-year, $13MM deal with the Yankees.  The Blue Jays and Orioles have shown interest in Saunders but the winter rumor mill has otherwise been pretty quiet for the Canadian outfielder.  Saunders hit .253/.338/.478 with 24 homers over 558 PA for Toronto last season, though his production badly declined after the All-Star break.  The Tribe already has several left-handed hitting or switch-hitting corner outfield options, though Saunders could play in the field or perhaps get some DH time when Carlos Santana is at first base, given Saunders’ poor fielding metrics last season.
  • The Rangers continue to have interest in a reunion with Colby Lewis, though there doesn’t appear much has changed between the two sides, GM Jon Daniels tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan.  “There is always going to be interest in Colby.  There is no doubt about the man.  No question there.  There’s not much I can say that hasn’t already been said.  It’s more dollars and what the opportunity there is,” Daniels said.
  • After a dire 2016 season, the Angels are already looking in better shape for next year, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes.  The acquisitions of Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa fill two big lineup holes for the Halos, and they’ve added pitching depth to bounce back from the rotation’s injury-plagued season.  In Rosenthal’s view, the Angels could be a .500 team with better health and better luck, though making the postseason is still unlikely at this point.

Astros Interested In Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura

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Royals starters Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura are two of the pitchers on the Astros’ list of rotation targets, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports.  The two K.C. arms join several other previously-known names (i.e. Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and other Tampa Bay’s starters) as potential trade fits for a Houston team looking to upgrade its starting pitching.

Kansas City is known to be open to dealing notable players in order to cut short-term payroll, and the Royals have already made one big move in this regard by dealing Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler.  Even with Davis gone, however, the Royals have several more possible trade chips who are only controllable over the next one or two seasons before hitting free agency.

Duffy fits into that category, as MLBTR projects the southpaw to earn $8.2MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after the 2017 season.  K.C. began preliminary extension talks with Duffy earlier this winter but were also gauging interest in his services during the Winter Meetings.  Duffy, who turns 28 late this month, posted a 3.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 4.48 K/BB rate over 179 2/3 innings for Kansas City last year, finally solidifying himself as a member of the rotation after being used as a part-time reliever in the previous two seasons and at the start of 2016.

While Duffy would be a one-year rental, Ventura is locked up through at least 2019 due to a contract extension that includes club options for both 2020 and 2021.  Ventura is guaranteed $20.25MM through 2019 and, if both options are exercised, Ventura’s deal would cost $43.25MM over the five seasons.  Even if Ventura merely continues to post numbers akin to his only-okay 2016 season (4.45 ERA, 50.2% grounder rate, 6.97 K/9, 1.85 K/BB rate over 186 innings), that deal is still very good value given the rising costs of starting pitching, and it could become a major bargain should Ventura take a step forward in performance.

Ventura has been the subject of controversy due to reported maturity issues and his two suspensions for throwing at batters, though the Royals denied reports that they were shopping the righty last summer.  One would think that given Ventura’s age (25) and reasonable contract, the Royals would see him as a long-term building block rather than as a trade chip.  Their willingness to least listen to other clubs’ offers could be due to doubts about his personality, or it could just be due diligence, as Ventura’s years of control could net K.C. a nice return in a trade.

The Astros have a deep minor league system that could satisfy the Royals or other teams looking for young talent, and Houston could also offer starting pitching of its own in the form of Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers.  Since the Royals plan to contend next season, they could fit as a team that would take on a solid rotation piece like McHugh or Fiers rather than just prospects in exchange for a pitcher; the Davis trade, for instance, netted the Royals a player in Soler who they expect to contribute immediately.

Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, McHugh, Fiers and the newly-signed Charlie Morton project as Houston’s rotation.  It’s an unspectacular but solid rotation, and one that could look better on paper if Keuchel returns to his Cy Young Award form of 2015.

Bullpen Notes: Nationals, Miller, Marlins

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Some items on the always-busy relief pitching market…

  • The Nationals explored acquiring Andrew Miller at last July’s trade deadline, though balked at the idea of moving Lucas Giolito and other prospects for the ace reliever, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian recently noted (as cited by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney in his latest subscriber-only column).  Trading for Miller would’ve solved Washington’s search for a long-term closer, and the Nats ended up moving Giolito anyway at the Winter Meetings to obtain Adam Eaton “in a market saturated with outfield options.”  This decision presents an interesting what-if for Nats fans, though the answer could simply come down to the fact that the Nationals no longer valued Giolito as highly.  “Their view of Giolito obviously changed completely.  Whatever it was, they were working to move him,” an evaluator tells Olney.
  • Speaking of Miller, this offseason’s skyrocketing relief prices have made the Indians lefty a bargain for the team, Zack Meisel of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Miller is owed $9MM in each of the next two seasons, a fraction of what he would earn if he was on the open market this winter.
  • Brad Ziegler and Neftali Feliz have been mentioned as potential Marlins backup plans if they can’t sign Kenley Jansen, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro also adds Fernando Salas and Junichi Tazawa to the team’s list of possible candidates.  Overall, the Fish would be looking to add relievers with closing experience, though A.J. Ramos would likely remain Miami’s closer.

Gammons On The Red Sox: Bautista, Swihart, Benintendi, Starters

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Peter Gammons (in his latest piece for his GammonsDaily.com website) looks back at five of the major storylines coming out of the Winter Meetings, including prices in the reliever market, teams dealing prospects and how the Red Sox have established a clear window to aim for at least one World Series title between now and the end of the decade.  Gammons also includes a few hot stove tidbits about the Sox…

  • Free agent slugger Jose Bautista “wanted to work something out” with the Red Sox but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Bautista’s agent that the Sox were out of payroll space.  Boston has over $178.3MM committed to just 10 players on the 2017 roster, plus Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig.  Adding Bautista on a notable salary would again put the Sox over the luxury tax threshold, putting the team in line for a sizeable penalty.
  • Dombrowski “refused to talk about” Blake Swihart with several teams that were interested in the former top prospect.  Swihart is coming off a tough 2016 campaign that included a demotion to Triple-A, a position switch from catcher to left field due to defensive issues and a severe ankle injury that ended his season in June.  Still, since Swihart is just 24 and less than two years removed from being a consensus top-20 prospect in the game, it isn’t shocking that teams were looking to buy low, nor is it a surprise that Dombrowski wants to keep him in the fold.
  • We’ve already heard about how the White Sox wanted Rafael Devers as part of the Chris Sale trade, and Gammons reports that Chicago also had interest in Andrew Benintendi as the deal’s starting point but Boston refused.  Benintendi, another highly-touted prospect, made a strong MLB debut in 2016 and looks to start next year as the Red Sox starting left fielder.
  • The Sale trade gives the Red Sox a rotation surplus, and the club isn’t likely to really explore dealing a starter until Spring Training, when the Sox have a better idea of what to expect from question marks like Swihart, Pablo Sandoval, Christian Vazquez or Sam Travis.  Gammons also notes that the Sox could simply hang onto all of their starting pitching options as extra depth against the injuries that will almost inevitably occur during a season.

Latest On Jose Quintana’s Market

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8:34pm: The Astros did, in fact, talk to the White Sox about Quintana, but have found the White Sox’ price to be too steep, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes. Kaplan notes that it’s unclear whether the Astros would have to give up Bregman to get Quintana, but notes that he doesn’t want to part with players who could help the Astros next season. “We’re just not prepared to trade away players that are core to our production in 2017, and those are sometimes the players that are required to get these deals done,” says GM Jeff Luhnow.

The Braves also asked about Quintana and thought the White Sox’ price was too high, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The problem seems to be that the Braves don’t feel Quintana is as valuable as Sale was, even though Quintana is controllable for an extra year. “We don’t have needs in starting pitching,” says GM John Coppolella. “Do we want a No. 1 starter, is Chris Sale a No. 1 starter? Yes. Do we want Jose Quintana? I don’t think Jose Quintana is Chris Sale.”

8:51am: A day after trading Chris Sale to the Red Sox, the White Sox are now “in serious talks” with multiple teams about their other star left-hander Jose Quintana, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  The Astros and Nationals are two of the clubs involved in discussions.

The Astros were rumored to have interest in Sale, but Houston’s refusal to include Alex Bregman in any trade likely removed them from the bidding, given how Chicago was looking for only elite prospects for Sale (like maybe the game’s best prospect in Yoan Moncada).  The White Sox undoubtedly want quite a bit for Quintana as well, though their demands could be closer to the Astros’ comfort zone.

Houston has heavily bolstered its lineup this offseason with the additions of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick, though Charlie Morton has been the only new face brought into a rotation that fell short of expectations in 2016.  The Astros have been creatively both shopping starters (Mike Fiers and Collin McHugh) while also looking at upgrades; in particular, Houston has often been linked to the Rays’ pitchers in trade talks, even dating back to last summer’s trade deadline.

The Nationals’ interest in Quintana is a bit harder to gauge.  While Nightengale and FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman have both reported that the Nats were in on Quintana, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes have reported that Washington was only specifically interested in Sale, not in any other starting pitchers.  While the Nationals have a very good rotation already, Quintana (and his team-friendly contract that is extendable through 2020) could still be an upgrade.  Stephen Strasburg can opt out of his deal after the 2019 season, Gio Gonzalez is only controllable via a club option through 2018 and the Nats might simply see Quintana as a more proven commodity than youngster Joe Ross.  In fact, a controllable young starter like Ross would be a potential fit for a Quintana trade package.

While often overshadowed by Sale in Chicago, Quintana has rather quietly been a very durable and effective pitcher over his five years with the White Sox.  Quintana has a 3.41 ERA, 3.20 K/BB rate, 7.4 K/9 over 951 career innings, and over the last four seasons, he has generated 18.2 fWAR and averaged 204 innings per year.  An early-career extension has made Quintana even more of a valuable commodity, as he is owed just $14.35MM through 2018, plus $10.5MM club options for both 2019 and 2020 (with $1MM buyouts in each year).

Yankees Sign Matt Holliday

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The Yankees have announced the signing of Matt Holliday to a one-year deal.  The Scott Boras client will reportedly receive a guarantee of $13MM for the 2017 season.

Matt Holliday

While Holliday has been a left fielder for 1698 of his 1773 career games, he isn’t likely to get much time at that position in New York (at least not unless Brett Gardner is traded).  Holliday will instead serve as the Yankees’ primary designated hitter and possibly also get some time at first base; he appeared in 10 games at first for the Cardinals last year.

The signing will bring some veteran stability to an intriguing but rather inexperienced first base/DH mix in New York.  Youngsters Greg Bird and Tyler Austin are expected to get the bulk of time at first, with Aaron Judge on hand as both a DH and right fielder.  (Austin can also play right.)  Holliday, Austin and Judge are all right-handed hitters, with Bird hitting from the left side and the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks traditionally performing much better against southpaws over his career.

Holliday hit .246/.322/.461 with 20 homers over 426 PA for St. Louis in 2016 in a season shortened by a thumb fracture.  Between that injury and a pair of quad strains in 2015, Holliday has only appeared in 183 of 324 games over the last two years, though a move to DH should help the 36-year-old (who turns 37 in January) stay healthy.  Defensive metrics like UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved have been down on Holliday’s left field glovework for the last five years, so a move out of left is also likely to help Holliday’s overall value.

Holliday’s below-par 2016 season led the Cardinals to decline their $17MM club option on the longtime St. Louis staple.  Over 13 seasons and 7489 career PA with the Cards, A’s and Rockies, Holliday has a very impressive .303/.382/.515 slash line, 295 home runs and 49.9 fWAR.  Though his walk rate, line drive rate and overall hitting numbers declined in 2016, Holliday hit with much more power last year than in 2015 and his overall hard-hit ball rate was above his career norms.  A .253 BABIP may have also been partially responsible for Holliday’s somewhat disappointing (by his standards) 2016 campaign.

Holliday ranked 40th on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2016-17 offseason, with Tim Dierkes predicting Holliday to land a one-year, $10MM deal.

The Yankees had been linked to several veteran bats this winter, ranging from top-of-the-market names like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion to players like Holliday who would be available on shorter-term deals.  In signing Holliday to an affordable one-year commitment, GM Brian Cashman could now use any affordable payroll room on the bullpen (the Yankees have been widely tabbed for a reunion with Aroldis Chapman) or perhaps the starting rotation, via free agency or the trade market.  Gardner and Chase Headley have been rumored to be available in trade talks, so more moves could also be forthcoming to the Yankees’ lineup.

WFAN’s Sweeny Murti was the first to report (Twitter link) that the two sides were close to a deal, and FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that Holliday will earn $13MM for the one-year contract.

Nationals Not Interested In Starting Pitching

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Chris Sale was the only starting pitcher that drew the Nationals’ interest, and after missing out on the southpaw, Washington won’t pursue any other rotation options, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports.  That includes Sale’s former teammate Jose Quintana, who was reported yesterday by FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman as a Nats target.

Starting pitching, of course, wasn’t a major need for the Nationals anyway this offseason.  They’ll head into 2017 with a very strong projected rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez and Joe Ross, plus an enviable amount of young starting depth with the likes of Lucas Giolito, A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez.  Clearly, the Nats saw Sale as a unique case, and they were willing to give up an incredible amount of young talent for a top ace who is controllable through 2019 on a team-friendly contract.

If rotation help is no longer a priority, the question now becomes where the Nationals will go next for roster upgrades.  With Mark Melancon signed by the Giants and Wade Davis perhaps on the verge of becoming a Cub, closer would be the next logical avenue.  Rosenthal reports that the Nationals “consider themselves a longshot” to sign Aroldis Chapman due to a price tag that will likely be out of their comfort zone, and the same will probably be true of Kenley Jansen, the other ace closer remaining on the market.

If the big three free agent closers and Davis are all off the board, the Nats could look to sign one or two lower-tier relievers with closing experience rather than splurge on one star closer (the Marlins and Yankees are exploring similar “backup plans” if they can’t sign Chapman or Jansen).  Washington could then address its other major need in center field, though with Bryce Harper’s ability to handle center, the Nats could also continue to pursue short-term right field options as well.

Orioles Show Interest In Chris Carter

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The Orioles have been in contact with Chris Carter’s representatives, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  The O’s also had interest in Carter last offseason before the slugger signed with the Brewers.

Since being non-tendered by the Brewers last week, Carter has drawn interest from the Indians and Rockies, so it makes sense that another team in need of some first base/DH-type power has gotten in touch.  As Heyman notes, Carter would essentially replace Mark Trumbo’s power bat, and at a fraction of Trumbo’s reported asking price.  Pursuing Carter would also fit Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette’s recent strategy of not overpaying for power hitting; Baltimore has gotten quite a bit of pop from Nelson Cruz, Pedro Alvarez and Trumbo himself in recent years at relatively low costs.

Carter hit .222/.321/.499 in his lone season in Milwaukee, leading the NL in both homers (41) and strikeouts (206).  Despite all of Carter’s power, his lack of a well-rounded hitting game and below-average fielding and baserunning contributed to a value of just 0.9 fWAR in 2016.

Despite these drawbacks, Baltimore is a good fit on paper for Carter’s game.  He should provide as much home run power as ever in hitter-friendly Camden Yards, and his defensive shortcomings wouldn’t be an issue since thanks to Chris Davis’ presence, Carter would primarily be a designated hitter.  Over his career, Carter has been a notably better hitter as a DH ( 130 wRC+ in 764 PA) than as a first baseman (105 wRC+ in 1575 PA), so a case could be made that he could still unlock some greater hitting potential if freed from a regular defensive assignment.

The Orioles’ lineup already tilts heavily to the right side, however, and the O’s may be more interested in seeing what they have in young DH candidate Trey Mancini.  Baltimore could prefer to save its DH spot for Mancini and a rotation of veterans on rest days and instead direct its funds towards landing an everyday right fielder.

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