MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class
Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:
Trea Turner (Phillies)
Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.
Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Xander Bogaerts (Padres)
Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Carlos Correa (Twins)
Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons
After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.
Dansby Swanson (Cubs)
Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons
Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.
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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Which Contract Looks The Best For 2024 And Beyond
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Trea Turner 44% (3,012)
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Dansby Swanson 35% (2,443)
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Carlos Correa 12% (796)
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Xander Bogaerts 9% (644)
Total votes: 6,895
Injury Notes: Graveman, Matzek, Hoskins
Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman was unavailable for the ALDS due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that, per manager Dusty Baker, Graveman’s injury hasn’t improved enough to join the club for the ALCS against the Rangers. The news is a significant blow to the club’s bullpen depth, as Graveman posted a fantastic 2.42 ERA in 23 appearances with the Astros down the stretch after being acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline this year. That brought his season-long ERA down to an impressive 3.12 figure in 66 1/3 innings of work, though his 4.88 FIP leaves something to be desired thanks to an elevated 12.8% walk rate.
Even without Graveman, Houston is set up fairly well in the bullpen thanks to a trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris with whom they can close out games. This is Graveman’s second stint with the Astros, as the club previously acquired him from the Mariners in a deal ahead of the trade deadline back in 2021. He was dominant in the postseason for the club that year, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings of work. Graveman is under contract in Houston for 2024 on an $8MM salary.
More injury notes from around the majors…
- Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.
- Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is still hoping to return to the Phillies in time for the World Series after suffering a torn ACL during Spring Training this year. While Rob Thomson told reporters (per MLB.com) that Hoskins has been “moving forward” in his rehab, it seems as though Hoskins’s role will be fairly limited with the club even in the event he’s able to return to the postseason roster. Per Thomson, Hoskins will be used “almost exclusively” as a pinch-hitter if on the roster, as playing him at DH would require the club to move Kyle Schwarber back into the outfield, a move the club isn’t inclined to make. That said, a healthy Hoskins could be a factor in the club’s starting lineup if another injury elsewhere on the roster opened up playing time at DH for him.
MLBTR Poll: Tim Anderson’s Club Option
The 2023 was a brutal one for the White Sox, who entered the year with postseason aspirations but found themselves as one of the league’s biggest sellers come the trade deadline. The club ultimately lost 101 games in 2023, their second 100-loss campaign in six years. While the club is facing a host of problems, from a pitching staff stripped to the bone by midseason trades to reported clubhouse culture issues, perhaps the biggest reason for concern about the club’s fortunes going forward is the fall from grace of franchise shortstop Tim Anderson.
Since breaking out during the 2019 season, Anderson has been a face of the franchise on the south side of Chicago. From 2019-2021, the young shortstop slashed an excellent .322/.349/.495 (126 wRC+) in 295 games while approaching a 20/20 campaign in both full seasons of that stretch. He led all qualified hitters in batting average during that stretch while playing a solid shortstop, and was a key piece of what looked to be a sustainable White Sox core for the future.
Unfortunately, things started to come off the rails for both Chicago and Anderson himself in 2022. Anderson’s offense regressed somewhat as he slashed .301/.339/.395 (110 wRC+). While he posted a career-best strikeout rate of just 15.7%, that improved contact did not make up for Anderson’s power outage, as he posted a career-low .093 ISO, the 18th-lowest figure of all players with as many plate appearances as him that season. To make matters worse, Anderson was limited to just 79 games by two separate IL stints for groin and finger injuries. While Anderson struggled to stay on the field, the White Sox faltered in his absence, going just 81-81 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
After a downturn in performance for both club and player, both sides hoped for better days in 2023, but those days did not arrive. Amid the club’s worst season since their 106-loss campaign in 1970, Anderson had far and away the worst season of his career. The 30-year-old slashed a paltry .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate, a figure that’s 40% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. His wRC+, ISO, wOBA, and slugging percentage were all the worst in the majors among all qualified hitters, and his on-base percentage also ranked in the bottom five.
Anderson’s brutal season has caused plenty of speculation regarding his future in the White Sox organization. The club holds a $14MM club option on his services for the 2024 season with a $1MM buyout. While the $13MM decision once appeared to be a no-brainer for one of the league’s better regulars at a premium position, the future now appears anything but certain for Anderson and Chicago. New GM Chris Getz recently spoke about the upcoming decision on Anderson, indicating that the decision “deserves an exhaustive discussion” considering Anderson’s importance to the organization in recent years, though he offered no assurance that Anderson would return to the South Side next year.
Further complicating matters is the lack of quality shortstop options on the open market this season. If the club wishes to move on from Anderson, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a clear upgrade in free agency with Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela headlining the upcoming class. Of course, top prospect Colson Montgomery is figures to be the club’s shortstop of the future following a big season that saw him advance to Double-A late in the year. While Montgomery is certainly on the radar for a big league debut as soon as next year, it seems unlikely Chicago would be content to use him as the Opening Day shortstop next year after just 37 games at the Double-A level. Retaining Anderson certainly wouldn’t block Montgomery, as Anderson himself has expressed a willingness to move to second base going forward.
Ultimately, the upcoming option decision leaves the White Sox forced to choose between risking overpaying Anderson for another abysmal year of production in 2024 or risking him returning to form elsewhere when he could’ve been retained on a relative bargain compared to his typical production. How do MLBTR readers feel the White Sox should approach the upcoming decision on Anderson’s option? Have your say in the poll below.
Should The White Sox Pick Up Tim Anderson's Team Option For 2024?
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No 61% (4,012)
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Yes 39% (2,611)
Total votes: 6,623
Coaching Notes: Guardians, Nationals, Twins
Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com recently provided an update on the ongoing search for the next Guardians manager, who will step into the shoes of recently-retired skipper Terry Francona. Hoynes noted that the club has been narrowing their list of potential candidates in recent weeks and has begun interviewing candidates who aren’t still in or recently out of the postseason mix. Hoynes added that while Rays manager Kevin Cash now appears to be rooted in Tampa following speculation he could be a potential target for Cleveland, it’s unclear whether he was ever a serious candidate for the position. Hoynes also notes that Cash, still under contract with the Rays for 2024, would have had to be acquired via trade if he was to become the next skipper in Cleveland.
In addition to previously-known interest in Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and first base coach Sandy Alomar (the latter of whom declined to interview for the position), Hoynes adds that the Guardians will interview minor league field coordinator John McDonald for the position. McDonald played in the majors for sixteen years, including seven in Cleveland, before taking his current position in the Guardians organization. Hoynes adds that the club had interest in interviewing third base coach Mike Sarbaugh, though the long-time member of the club’s coaching staff declined the offer to interview for the position.
More coaching news from around the majors…
- While the Nationals recently parted ways with several of their coaches, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post reports that at least two familiar faces will return to manager Dave Martinez‘s staff next year: pitching coach Jim Hickey and hitting coach Darnell Coles. Golden notes that Martinez himself advocated for Hickey’s return in particular, and that Hickey’s work with the organization’s many young pitchers drew praise throughout the organization. Coles has coached in the majors since 2014, with stints as hitting coach in Milwaukee and Arizona before joining Washington’s staff in 2021. Hickey’s professional coaching career began in 1996, and his first big league role came in 2004 with the Astros. He has since acted as pitching coach for the Rays and Cubs before joining the Nationals following the 2020 season.
- Following an 87-win season that saw the club capture the AL Central crown and win their first postseason series since 2002, the Twins are bringing back their entire coaching staff under manager Rocco Baldelli, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. While Nightengale notes Minnesota’s MLB-worst 26.6% strikeout rate this year, with Baldelli arguing that the club’s high walk rates and power output in 2023 made up for the whiffs. “You want baserunners, and you want balls hit on the barrel,” he said, “That’s what we want, those two things, above anything else.” Baldelli also noted that the offense would naturally improve next year with healthy seasons from star hitters Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, each of whom dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign.
AL East Notes: Middleton, Santander, Red Sox
Right-hander Keynan Middleton was one of the only players the Yankees added at the trade deadline this year. While the club ultimately missed the postseason with an 82-80 record, Middleton excelled in 14 1/3 innings of work after coming over in a deal with the White Sox over the summer. The righty posted a sterling 1.88 ERA with a strong 3.26 FIP as a Yankee, bringing his overall season numbers to a solid 3.38 ERA with a respectable 4.20 FIP in 50 2/3 innings between Chicago and New York.
Though Middleton is poised to hit free agency next month, it’s possible that won’t be the end of the union between Middleton and the Yankees. Greg Joyce of the New York Post relayed positive comments from the 30-year-old hurler on his time in the Bronx. Middleton said there aren’t “too many other places” he’s looking at as he prepares to hit free agency, adding that “After being here, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to be here… I’d love to come back here, but we’ll see what happens.”
The bullpen was a strength for the Yankees this season, though with right-hander Michael King slated to start in 2024 after a dominant year primarily in relief, it’s certainly reasonable the Yankees could look to reinforce their relief corps this offseason. Middleton figures to be joined by lefty relief arm Wandy Peralta and starters Luis Severino and Frankie Montas in departing the Yankees’ pitching staff for free agency this offseason.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has been a frequent target of trade speculation throughout his career as a reliable, quality outfield bat throughout the club’s rebuild. Though Baltimore broke through this season with a 101-win campaign that took them to the postseason for the first time since 2016, it appears rumors surrounding Santander will persist into his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MASN’s Roch Kubatko suggests that given Santander’s hefty expected salary in 2024 (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to earn $12.7MM in his final trip through arbitration), Santander could be a topic of trade talks again this offseason. Kubatko goes on to note the Marlins as a team that’s had particular interest in his services in the past. The Marlins figure to once again have an opening in their outfield/DH mix this offseason, assuming Jorge Soler declines his player option for 2024.
- The Red Sox have been widely speculated to be active participants in the trade market this offseason as they look to rebound from a fifth-place finish in the AL East. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey suggests in a recent mailbag that plenty of the club’s prospects could be made available this offseason in their pursuit of a better season in 2024, with shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony, and catcher Kyle Teel as the club’s only perceived untouchables. Of course, McCaffrey notes that the current perception could change upon the hiring of a new head of baseball operations to replace Chaim Bloom, who the club fired last month.
Alex Anthopoulous Discusses Upcoming Braves Offseason
After posting an MLB-best 104-58 record during the regular season this year, the Braves were once again vanquished in four games by the Phillies during the NLDS. With the club’s 2023 campaign now officially in the rearview, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous conducted Atlanta’s end-of-season press conference yesterday. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and David O’Brien of The Athletic were among those to relay Anthopoulous’s comments during the presser.
One item Anthopoulous quickly addressed was that of the manager’s seat. The club’s GM quickly made clear that manager Brian Snitker would return to helm the team from the dugout in 2024. The move is hardly a surprise, even as the club found itself exiting the playoffs after just one series for the second year in a row. After all, the Braves have won a combined 205 games the past two seasons, won the World Series in 2021 under Snitker’s leadership, and extended the soon to be 68-year-old with a contract that runs through the 2025 campaign back in January. Since Snitker took over the manager’s chair in Atlanta back in 2016, the club has posted a 646-509 record under his guidance while making the postseason in six consecutive seasons.
Another topic of discussion was the starting rotation. Righties Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and lefty Max Fried all figure to return to the club’s rotation in 2024, though Kyle Wright will miss next season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That leaves two spots in the rotation to be filled out, though the club holds a $20MM club option on the services of veteran righty Charlie Morton for next year, which could round out the rotation. Anthopoulous spoke positively of Morton during the presser, noting that his addition ahead of the 2021 season have the club a “frontline starter” for their World Series run. Morton will turn 40 next month, and Bowman suggests that the club could look to work out a different contract with the righty even if they ultimately turn down his option for next season.
Speaking of the rotation more generally, Anthopoulous wouldn’t get into specific offseason plans but acknowledged the club’s struggles with injuries in that area of the roster this season. Morton missed the NLDS this year with an index finger issue, while Fried and Wright followed up excellent seasons in 2022 by combining to make just 21 regular season starts this year as both battled injuries throughout much of the season. Though Morton, Elder, and Strider each made thirty start or more, the absences at the front of the rotation forced the club to rely on depth options like Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Michael Soroka to cover the club’s last two rotation spots.
16 pitchers ultimately drew starts for Atlanta this season, with the aforementioned quartet combining for 6.10 ERA in 144 2/3 innings of work across 29 starts. Though it’s certainly feasible one of the club’s young arms could take a step forward in 2024, it seems reasonable to expect the Braves to consider potential rotation upgrades this offseason regardless of whether or not Morton remains in the fold for next season. The upcoming class of free agents figures to be flush with mid-rotation or better arms, giving Atlanta plenty of options if they do seek an addition to their current mix of starters.
Looking toward the club’s position player corps, there figures to be little in the way of change this coming offseason. The club’s entire infield mix is locked up for the 2024 campaign and beyond except for utility player Nicky Lopez, who is controlled via arbitration for two more seasons. In the outfield, each of Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are under contract for 2024, though Kevin Pillar is a pending free agent and the club holds a $9MM club option on left fielder Eddie Rosario, which seems likely to be declined after he slashed just .240/.289/.408 in 786 trips to the plate the last two seasons.
With Pillar and Rosario both potentially headed to the open market, the club could have a hole to fill in left field next season. The crop of free agent corner outfielders this offseason is headlined by Teoscar Hernandez, though former Braves Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler could all be available as well. One other option for the club’s left field mix could be youngster Vaughn Grissom, who spent much of the season at the Triple-A level after losing out on the starting shortstop job to Orlando Arcia.
Though Grissom hit just .280/.313/.347 in 80 trips to the plate with the big league club this year, Anthopoulous spoke glowingly of the 22-year-old, referencing his strong slash line of .330/.419/.501 in 102 Triple-A games this year. Grissom played exclusively up the middle in the minor leagues this year, mostly playing shortstop with occasional reps at second base. That being said, the youngster has previous experience at third base and could see time in a utility role next year, per Anthopolous. Though he hasn’t played the position previously in his career, it’s at least conceivable such a role could include time in left field. After all, Austin Riley appeared in the outfield just nine times during his minor league career, but wound up getting occasional reps at both outfield corners early in his big league career before ultimately settling in at third base.
Twins Notes: Taylor, Buxton, Correa
With the Twins now eliminated from the postseason at the hands of the Astros, eyes are now turning toward the impending offseason. Veteran righty Sonny Gray has already expressed his desire to return to Minnesota next year, and outfielder Michael A. Taylor joined him in an interview with Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News. In conversation with Wolfson, Taylor spoke of his hopes to return to the Twins next year as well as his appreciation of people throughout the organization and the club’s chemistry in the locker room, calling Minnesota a “quality ballclub.”
Taylor, 32, is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. In addition to his typical strong defense in center field (+9 Outs Above Average, per Statcast) with a .220/.278/.442 slash line in 388 plate appearances. Though his on-base numbers certainly leave something to be desired, Taylor’s career-best 21 home runs propelled his over all numbers to around league average (96 wRC+). When taken with his quality defense and baserunning, it leaves Taylor as a solid everyday option in center field. Whether he ultimately signs with the Twins or elsewhere, Taylor figures to receive plenty of interest around the league.
Of course, any potential reunion between Taylor and the Twins could hinge on what’s in store for the club’s typical center fielder, Byron Buxton. The talented but oft-injured slugger was unable to play the field during the 2023 campaign, opening the door for Taylor to receive semi-regular playing time with Minnesota in center field while Buxton acted as the club’s DH. It was a difficult season for Buxton, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games as the club’s DH while battling an injured knee.
A healthy Buxton figures to be of utmost importance to the Twins next season, though Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune relays that Buxton is not yet sure whether or not he’ll require another surgery on his ailing knee this offseason. The uncertainty surrounding Buxton could further incentivize the club to explore a reunion with Taylor, who the club acquired last offseason to help man center field in the event Buxton faced another injury-marred campaign.
Fortunately, the Twins have more clarity regarding shortstop Carlos Correa‘s path to health this offseason. Per Nightengale, Correa will be meeting with Twins medical staff to ensure a smooth recovery from his season-long battle with plantar fasciitis. While Correa’s foot will not require surgery, he is expected to undergo a procedure to correct the deviated septum in his nose. Correa previously underwent surgery to correct the issue back in 2018.
In his second season with the Twins and on the heels of signing a six-year, $200MM deal with Minnesota this past offseason, Correa struggled somewhat at the plate. In 580 plate appearances, he slashed just .230/.312/.399 with a wRC+ of 96, though he did manage to offer his typical solid defense at shortstop. Surely, Minnesota is hoping that an offseason of rest can alleviate Correa’s issues with plantar fasciitis and put him in position to post a strong 2024 campaign more in line with his first season as a Twin, when he slashed an impressive .291/.366/.467 with a wRC+ of 140.
Nico Hoerner Is Already Making His Extension Look Good
When the Cubs announced that they had agreed to terms with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day back in March, the deal was regarded as a somewhat surprising one around the league. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco at the time of the deal, it’s unusual for a player to sign an extension that buys out just one free agent year once eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did just that, however: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, buying out Hoerner’s final two years of arbitration and his first year as a free agent for a total guarantee of $35MM.
That’s a fairly hefty sum for a player who was making just over $2.5MM for the 2023 season after his first trip through arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a strong season as the club’s starting shortstop in 2022, where he accumulated 4.0 fWAR thanks to strong defense at short combined with offense that was just a touch above league average (106 wRC+). Impressive as that season was, there were plenty of questions about whether or not he would be able to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with injuries in 2021, missing three months with forearm, hamstring, and oblique issues. What’s more, the club’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, where his strong defense would be less valuable. Given those question marks, it was fair to wonder if the Cubs were overvaluing their former first-round pick.
Fortunately for both sides, Hoerner’s 2023 campaign was a major step toward quieting any doubts regarding the decision to extend him. Concerns about Hoerner as an injury-prone player were surely quieted by him following up a 135-game campaign last year by spending just eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 games played and a whopping 688 plate appearances, one more than his 2021 and ’22 seasons combined.
The similar sample sizes demonstrate how consistent Hoerner’s production with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was virtually identical with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Though his power dipped slightly, he made up for it by walking at an improved 7.1% clip while posting a phenomenal 12.1% strikeout rate. Only seven qualified hitters struck out less often than Hoerner in 2023, and of them only Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact rate was third best in baseball this year, behind only Arraez and Steven Kwan.
Hoerner’s defense has been similarly consistent. His glovework at shortstop last year was strong in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Average per Statcast. After moving to second this year, however, his defense has received even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best figure among all infielders this season, while his +15 OAA ranks eighth among qualified infielders. Only Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted better marks than Hoerner according to both metrics this year.
In addition to repeating the elite strikeout rate and middle infield defense that made the Cubs want to extend him in the first place, Hoerner’s added another dimension to his game this year by becoming one of the top base stealing threats in the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to another level this season by swiping 43 bags, fifth-most in the majors, in just 50 attempts. According to Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 figure was second best in all of the major leagues behind only rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who became just the sixth player this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.
Taking Hoerner’s defense, contract ability, and baserunning together, his 2023 campaign was worth 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the 22nd-best figure in the sport. If Hoerner is able to keep up anything close to this level of production over the life of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the start of the season will look like an excellent gamble by Chicago’s front office, and Hoerner could find himself in line for a much larger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll still be just 29 years old.
Injury Notes: Scherzer, Kirilloff, Moreno
Rangers ace Max Scherzer was thought to be done for the season as recently as last month due to a teres major strain, but the veteran righty has spent the postseason to this point rehabbing the injury with the hope of returning in time to impact the pennant chase in Texas. With the Rangers now poised to face the Astros in the ALCS starting this weekend, Scherzer’s rehab appears to be in the best place its been to this point. In conversation with reporters, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that Scherzer’s 60-pitch simulated game yesterday left him feeling “real encouraged” regarding the future Hall of Famer’s health entering the upcoming series. Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today adds that Bochy indicated Scherzer would be a starting pitcher for the club if he is well enough to make the roster.
The news is surely encouraging for fans in Arlington. In winning five straight games to advance to the ALCS, the club’s starting and multi-inning options in Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford have pitched exceptionally well, with a combined 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work. A healthy Scherzer would allow Texas more flexibility regarding the usage of Heaney, Dunning, and Bradford with Montgomery and Eovaldi joining the team ace as the club’s three main starters for the series. Scherzer sports a 3.77 ERA in 152 1/3 innings of work this season, though that figure drops to a more impressive 3.20 (140 ERA+) since joining the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline.
More injury news from around the league…
- Alex Kirilloff was replaced by Byron Buxton on the ALDS roster for the Twins yesterday due to a shoulder injury, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes adds that Kirilloff spoke to reporters following last night’s game regarding the issue. Kirilloff revealed that surgery is on the table regarding his shoulder as he’s dealt with issues regarding it dating back to June. Fortunately, Hayes notes that the injury is in Kirilloff’s non-throwing shoulder and the 25-year-old isn’t concerned about a potential procedure’s rehab process. Kirilloff appeared in 88 games for the Twins this year while battling through wrist and shoulder issues, slashing .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate. Kirilloff figures to enter Spring Training in the mix for regular starts, with experience both at first base and in the corner outfield spots.
- The Diamondbacks removed catcher Gabriel Moreno from yesterday’s win over the Dodgers due to a hand contusion, sparking concern about the health of the club’s young catcher for the second time this postseason. He had previously been struck in the head by a backswing during the club’s Wild Card series against the Brewers. Fortunately, the club provided an update on Moreno this afternoon via Twitter. Arizona quoted Moreno as saying he “should be available for the rest of the playoffs” after tests on his hand came back negative. Moreno’s had an impressive postseason with a .250/.294/.813 slash line and three home runs in 17 trips to the plate. It’s an excellent capstone to a solid rookie season that saw the 23-year-old slash .284/.339/.408 in 111 games as the primary catcher for the DBacks.
Sonny Gray Discusses Impending Free Agency
The Twins were eliminated from the playoffs yesterday following their loss at the hands of the Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS. The club’s elimination brings to a close the 2023 campaign for a club that won 87 games, returned to the top of the AL Central standings for the first time since 2020, and won its first playoff series since 2002. Now, Minnesota will turn its attention to the impending offseason, where a handful of the club’s players figure to test free agency.
Chief among that group is veteran right-hander Sonny Gray, who led the club’s rotation with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings of work with an MLB-best 2.84 FIP. That performance put Gray squarely in contention for the AL Cy Young award in 2023, and sets him up to be one of the league’s top free agents this offseason. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke with Gray following last night’s loss regarding his future, and the righty made clear that his top priority as he heads into free agency isn’t necessarily securing the highest guarantee he can.
“I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been,” Gray said. “Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.” Gray went on to speaking glowingly of his time with the Twins. He noted that he “loves it” in Minnesota, adding that his time as a Twin has been an “incredible experience” and that “there is something special going on in this clubhouse.”
Though Gray’s interest in remaining with the Twins is evident, that hardly guarantees a return. Hayes goes on to indicate that the club figures to extend a one-year qualifying offer of roughly $20.5MM to Gray, though it’s unclear whether or not the Twins are interested in a longer term deal. While Gray and fellow rotation arm Kenta Maeda are headed for free agency, right-handers Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are each under long term club control. Meanwhile, righty Chris Paddack is expected to rejoin the rotation next year. That still leaves an open spot in this club’s rotation, though Hayes suggests the club could give a look to righty Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA in 68 innings of work at the big league level as a swingman for the Twins.
If Gray doesn’t return to Minnesota, he’s sure to find plenty of interest elsewhere. The Cardinals are already known to have interest in Gray’s services, while the Dodgers, Cubs and Reds are among the many other clubs who could potentially be on the lookout for rotation help this offseason. While the interest in Gray figures to be strong, it’s unlikely the veteran hurler will receive a top-of-the-market offer in terms of years, given he’ll be celebrating his 34th birthday next month. Gray’s comments hardly disputed that likelihood, with the righty suggesting that his decision this offseason will decide “where are the next three to four years of our lives” will be. A deal in that range certainly seems feasible on the heels of right-hander Chris Bassitt receiving a three-year, $62MM deal covering his age 34-36 seasons last offseason.