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No Extension Talks Between Padres, Michael King

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Yesterday, the Padres and right-hander Michael King avoided an arbitration hearing with a creative deal that guarantees King $7.75MM. The deal splits that guarantee between a signing bonus and the buyout on a 2026 mutual option in addition to his 2025 salary in order to slightly ease some of the financial issues facing San Diego as they look to upgrade their roster this winter. Despite the sides’ ability to come together on an unusual solution to their dispute over King’s salary for this year, however, the right-hander told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) at the Padres’ FanFest event today that he has not been approached regarding a long-term extension that would keep him in San Diego beyond the 2025 season.

That there apparently has not yet been a conversation between the two camps about a long-term deal is an interesting development given previous reports that the club believes King to be more amenable to the possibility of an extension than fellow walk year righty Dylan Cease. Those rumors have led to a belief throughout the offseason that San Diego would prefer to deal Cease rather than King if they end up trading one of their two front-of-the-rotation arms amid their pursuit of pitching depth and lineup upgrades. That appears to still be the case, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club is “not actively shopping” King in the aftermath of the sides reaching an arbitration agreement. Acee is quick to note that the new contract doesn’t necessarily preclude a trade from occurring, but it appears clearer than ever that the Padres’ preference is for the departing pitcher to be Cease if they wind up dealing one of their top arms.

As for King, the righty spoke to reporters (including Sanders) about the swirling trade rumors today, saying that he would be “shocked” if he were to be traded before adding that hearing your name in the rumor mill is “part of the business.”

“Obviously anything can happen,” King said, as relayed by Sanders. “I didn’t think I was going to get traded over here that offseason last year. Anything can happen.”

While it’s unclear whether King’s confidence that he’ll be in a Padres uniform on Opening Day and the club’s apparent preference for dealing Cease if one of the pair is traded will actually lead to King remaining in San Diego, it should be noted that the sides not yet having discussed an extension does not preclude them from doing so in the coming weeks. Extension negotiations between players and clubs frequently open after the start of Spring Training, and the Padres have been among the most prolific clubs in the sport when it comes to springtime extensions in recent years.

It was just two years ago that San Diego signed Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish to a trio of lengthy extensions over the course of Spring Training 2023, and two years before that the club famously agreed to a massive $340MM contract with Fernando Tatis Jr. during Spring Training 2021. They’ve at least explored extensions with other players during the spring in recent years as well, such as Jackson Merrill last winter. Whether King will join the list of Padres player to put pen to paper on extensions just before reaching free agency remains to be seen, but even with no talks between the sides to this point the possibility of some discussions between the sides this spring can’t be ruled out.

Aside from San Diego’s hefty payroll commitments that have limited their flexibility in recent years, one potential obstacle for any King extension would surely be his unusual history. The right-hander posted an excellent season in 2024 with a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work, but that was his first season pitching as a full-time starting pitcher since 2018, during his age-23 season in the minor leagues. While King’s 39 starts since being put back in the rotation by the Yankees down the stretch last year have been electric, his ability to keep up with a 150+ inning workload for a second consecutive season will surely have a major impact on his value in free agency. Given the importance of his platform season, it wouldn’t be a shock if the sides struggled to reach an agreement on what fair value looks like even if they do engage in extension talks at some point before Opening Day.

Dodgers GM: “Door Remains Open” For Reunion With Enrique Hernandez

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When Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes spoke today at the club’s FanFest event, he addressed the ongoing free agency of fan favorite utility man Enrique Hernandez. As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Gomes noted that “the door remains open” for the club to bring Hernandez back into the fold for 2025.

Gomes’s comments come shortly after reports surfaced of interest in Hernandez on the part of the Yankees. Hernandez, 33, has spent parts of eight seasons in Los Angeles and is a career .240/.307/.416 hitter in a Dodgers uniform. After first playing for the club from 2015 to 2020, Hernandez departed for the Red Sox in free agency prior to the 2021 season but was traded back to L.A. at the 2023 trade deadline. He posted solid numbers the rest of the way in a bench role for the club and then returned for 2024 on a one-year, $4MM deal last winter despite interest from a handful of other clubs, including the Yankees.

His most recent season wasn’t quite on the level of his previous work in L.A. as he hit just .229/.281/.373 with a wRC+ of 83 in 393 trips to the plate. Even his work against southpaws, where Hernandez has long excelled the most, took a step back this past year as he posted just a 90 wRC+ despite a solid career .255/.337/.453 line against opposite-handed pitchers. With that being said, Hernandez was an X-factor for the Dodgers during their postseason run this past year with a .294/.357/.451 slash line in 57 trips to the plate against the Padres, Mets, and Yankees en route to the club’s first full-season World Series championship in nearly 40 years.

That electric performance and Hernandez’s status as a beloved figure both within the organization and among the fanbase has seemingly left the Dodgers interested in a reunion even in spite of Hernandez’s diminished production and a major roster crunch on the positional side of things. As things stand currently, recently-signed infielder Hyeseong Kim and center fielder Andy Pages are the only two position players on the Dodgers’ projected roster who can be optioned to the minors. Assuming that Hernandez would be part of the club’s Opening Day roster, that would likely leave Pages as the odd man out given that L.A. already traded Gavin Lux in part to accommodate the addition of Kim to their lineup on a regular basis.

Pages had a perfectly solid rookie season in 2024 but could find himself a victim of the club’s access of quality position players. He hit .248/.305/.407 in 116 games and 443 plate appearances with the Dodgers last year while splitting time between all three outfield spots but primarily playing center field. As things stand, Pages figures to be deployed primarily as a right-handed complement to Michael Conforto in the outfield or perhaps handle center field on days where Tommy Edman moves into the infield mix. Hernandez doesn’t offer the same offensive upside as Pages, but is a solid hitter against lefties himself and offers more versatility with the ability to play virtually any position on the diamond as needed.

If the Dodgers wanted to carry both Hernandez and Pages on the Opening Day roster without an injury solving the logjam naturally, the most likely candidate to lose his roster spot would likely be Hernandez’s fellow utility veteran Chris Taylor. The 34-year-old is entering the final guaranteed year of his four-year, $60MM deal with the Dodgers but struggled badly in 2024 with a paltry .202/.298/.300 slash line in 87 games that was good for a wRC+ of just 74, 26% below the league average. He struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances last year and missed a month of last year due to a groin strain. He posted stronger numbers down the stretch last year with a 121 wRC+ after returning from injury, but that came in a sample of just 57 plate appearances. Taylor was used only sparingly in the club’s playoff run last year and struggled when he was allowed to hit, slashing just .231/.333/.231 with a 31.3% strikeout rate in just 16 postseason plate appearances.

Padres To Deploy Xander Bogaerts At Shortstop In 2025

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Longtime shortstop Xander Bogaerts headed into the 2024 season as the Padres’ new everyday second baseman, but he moved back to short in September to fill the void when Ha-Seong Kim was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury. With Kim now poised to join the Rays, the path is clear for Bogaerts to return to his old position. Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Bogaerts will be the team’s regular shortstop in 2025, and that the veteran is “excited” about the opportunity.

The news isn’t necessarily a shock, as Bogaerts retook the position down the stretch and into the postseason while Kim was on the IL late last year. He’s far from the only player on the roster with shortstop experience, but president of baseball operations AJ Preller made it clear at the start of the offseason that he wasn’t enthused by the prospect of moving either of his former shortstops in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, back onto the infield dirt in 2025. There have been at least some indications throughout the winter that rival clubs have expressed interest in Bogaerts as a potential trade candidate but the veteran’s hefty contract has long made such an arrangement look unlikely. It’s hardly a shock that San Diego has him penciled in for the starting shortstop gig to open the season given the unlikeliness of a trade, particularly now that Kim has reached an agreement elsewhere that will shut the door on a reunion.

As Bogaerts enters his age 32 season in 2025, he’ll be looking to rebound from the worst campaign of his career last year. In the second year of his 11-year, $280MM contract with San Diego the infielder was limited to just 111 games by a fractured left shoulder and hit just .264/.307/.381 (95 wRC+) when healthy enough to take the field. Notably, Bogaerts began to look a bit more like himself after returning from injury in the second half with a .299/.338/.432 (117 wRC+) in 64 games after being activated from the injured list in mid-July. That’s more or less in line with the 119 wRC+ he posted during his first year in San Diego, when he was able to put together a campaign worth 4.6 fWAR. That was the seventh best season among all shortstops in baseball in 2023, and the Padres would surely be delighted by a similar performance in 2025.

With Bogaerts seemingly entrenched at shortstop, the rest of the club’s infield mix falls into place with Manny Machado remaining at third base while Jake Cronenworth slides over to second in place of Bogaerts. Luis Arraez stands as the current top candidate to handle first base as things stand despite his name frequently appearing in the rumor mill this winter, but the Padres preferred to use him as their DH for the majority of his time in San Diego last year. With at least one bat seemingly needed between first base and DH, where Arraez ends up playing could come down to what player is added to the 1B/DH mix alongside him. J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner are among the best remaining players available at DH in free agency, while first base has a handful of relatively affordable veterans available like Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha.

Poll: Should The Phillies Extend J.T. Realmuto?

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Earlier this offseason, reporting out of Philadelphia indicated that Phillies brass are considering reducing the workload of veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto as he enters the final season of his deal with the club, after the first season of Realmuto’s career where he played less than 100 games due to injury. In that same report, there was a suggestion that the club could look to broach the topic of a contract extension with Realmuto ahead of his final year of team control, whether that would ultimately come later in the offseason or once camp opened up for Spring Training.

As January comes to a close, there have been no further reports regarding the state of talks between the sides. That could change quickly, however, given that camp will open in just two weeks. After all, last winter saw plenty of rumors about the possibility of an extension between the Phillies and right-hander Zack Wheeler, but talks did not begin until Spring Training was underway and eventually resolved in early March. Should the Phillies be interested in following a similar timeline with Realmuto, it’s easy to imagine talks starting up in the near future.

Realmuto, 34 in March, was dealt to the Phillies by the division rival Marlins prior to the 2019 season and has been a key cog in the Philadelphia lineup ever since. In 699 games for the club, the veteran has slashed an excellent .266/.331/.463 with a 112 wRC+. That puts Realmuto alongside Salvador Perez and Sean Murphy has one of the better offensive catchers in the past decade, though he falls outside the top tier occupied by Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, Willson Contreras, and Will Smith. Realmuto was at his best during the 2022 season, when he finished seventh in NL MVP voting, won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards for the catcher position, and became the second catcher in MLB history to post 20 homers and 20 steals in a single season.

The past two seasons have seen Realmuto’s age and heavy workloads begin to catch up with him, however. He’s hit just .258/.315/.442 (105 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign. His 25.2% strikeout rate during that time is higher than ever, and his walk rate has dipped to just 6.5%. Perhaps more importantly, Realmuto has fallen from the upper echelon of defensive catchers in the sport to become below average in terms of both blocking and framing, though he still remains elite when it comes to controlling the running game. While Realmuto has remained productive even amid this recent decline in skills, it’s fair to wonder if the veteran’s downturn in production the past two years could worsen as he enters his mid-30s given the harsh aging curve associated with the catcher position.

On the other hand, Philadelphia’s options without Realmuto in the fold are uninspiring. After a strong year as Realmuto’s backup in 2022, Garrett Stubbs has been one of the worst hitters in the sport the past two seasons with a paltry .206/.287/.271 slash line in 95 games. Youngster Rafael Marchan hit a far more robust .294/.345/.549 (146 wRC+) last year while filling in for Realmuto during his trip to the injured list, but that came in a sample of just 17 games and 56 plate appearances. If Realmuto were to head to free agency after the coming season, the Phillies would need to find an external addition at catcher to fortify that group anyway.

None of those options figure to be a clear upgrade even over the diminished form Realmuto has shown the past two seasons. Danny Jansen, Jose Trevino, and Victor Caratini are among the best catchers expected to be available next winter, but Realmuto’s 105 wRC+ is tied with Caratini for the lead among that group over the past two years and his 4.2 fWAR easily clears the production that trio has put up in timeshare roles. While a big season from Jansen and/or an additional step back from Realmuto could change things, a healthy season from Realmuto with a reduction in his day-to-day workload could improve his numbers and make him more difficult to bring back should he make it to the open market.

How do MLBTR readers feel president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski should handle Realmuto ahead of his final season under contract? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Phillies Extend J.T. Realmuto This Spring?
No, let him test free agency and put off deciding on the future of the position until after the season. 63.24% (2,955 votes)
Yes, keep him from hitting free agency and lock him down as the starting catcher. 36.76% (1,718 votes)
Total Votes: 4,673

The Opener: Moniak, Yates, Cease

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As January comes to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Moniak, Angels await arb decision:

The Angels and outfielder Mickey Moniak went to an arbitration hearing yesterday, as noted by the Associated Press. Moniak filed for a $2MM salary in 2025 while the Angels countered at $1.5MM. Moniak appeared to break out with the Angels in 2023 when he hit a strong .280/.307/.495 (114 wRC+) in 85 games, but the former No. 1 pick fell back to Earth in 2024 with a meager .219/.266/.380 (79 wRC+) line in 124 games as his BABIP cratered from an unsustainable .397 to just .272 year-over-year. Moniak is the first position player to go to a hearing this year. Pirates righties Johan Oviedo and Dennis Santana were the first two players to do so. Oviedo lost his case against Pittsburgh, while Santana’s decision is still pending.

2. Yates press conference:

The Dodgers officially signed right-hander Kirby Yates to a one-year deal yesterday, adding him to the 40-man roster at the expense of veteran righty Ryan Brasier. The club will be holding an introductory press conference at 11am local time this morning where Yates and (presumably) members of the Dodgers front office will be available to answer questions. The presser could shed some light on the closer situation in L.A. given that both Yates and fellow offseason signee Tanner Scott are established closers coming off excellent seasons. There’s been no indication which one the Dodgers plan on using in the ninth inning to this point, though one would imagine that the larger contract for Scott signifies that he’ll get the nod most days. Both pitchers have thrived in setup and closing roles, however, so manager Dave Roberts could also opt to use them interchangeably, as the situation dictates.

3. Will Cease’s market heat up?

The Padres have long been expected to make a trade or two this winter in order to free up space in the budget to address the club’s holes around the roster, and yesterday brought some increased chatter in that corner of the market. Specifically, right-hander Dylan Cease has reportedly been the subject of inquiries from both the Cubs and Mets. The Cubs have long been known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, even after adding southpaw Matthew Boyd in early December, but their only other addition has been veteran swingman Colin Rea. The Mets, meanwhile, have signed a number of starters this winter but lack impact at the front of their rotation and are already planning on using a six-man staff for 2025 that could make fitting Cease into the mix fairly easy (especially if a starter like David Peterson went the other way — speculatively speaking). A recent poll of MLBTR readers suggested that a slim majority of fans believe that San Diego should trade Cease, whether that be on his own or in addition to fellow rental starter Michael King. Could a deal get done before spring training?

Poll: Should The Padres Trade Dylan Cease Or Michael King?

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While the Padres no longer appear to be under a mandate to cut payroll for the 2025 season, signs still point to the club needing to make a trade or two in order to free up space in an already-maximized budget if they hope to address multiple holes in the lineup. That’s led to plenty of rumors surrounding the club’s pending free agents, the most valuable of whom are without a doubt right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King.

Trading a front-line starter like Cease or King might seem counterproductive for a club that’s already lacking in rotation depth, but it’s possible that the trade return for either player could involve a young starter or two while allowing the Padres to reallocate the freed up payroll space to the lineup. It’s surely under that logic that San Diego has explored Cease’s market and discussed King with rival clubs as well. The Padres have reportedly been more resistant to trading King under the belief that he’s more likely than Cease to sign an extension, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is generally open-minded when it comes to trade discussions. That the two sides face a nearly $1.5MM gap after exchanging salary figures and appear headed toward an arbitration hearing only adds an additional layer of complexity.

Cease, 29, is the bigger name of the two righties. A longtime top prospect with the Cubs and White Sox, the right-hander debuted on the south side back in 2019 and had developed into a legitimate front-end arm by 2021. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.32 FIP and an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive than Cease’s strong rate numbers is his volume. The right-hander has been a workhorse by the standards of the modern game with 716 innings of work across 130 starts since the start of 2021. That’s the most starts and seventh-highest innings count of any starter in that time.

By contrast, King doesn’t offer the same level of star power or track record. The 2024 campaign was actually the first time King has acted as a full-time starter in the majors, and his 173 2/3 innings of work were not only a career high but the first time he had thrown even 105 innings since 2018. The results can’t be denied, however, and King was nothing short of excellent. He posted a 2.95 ERA (139 ERA+) with a 3.33 FIP. His peripherals are quite similar to Cease, as well; his 27.7% strikeout rate was a touch lower than Cease’s 29.4% figure, but his 8.7% walk rate was nearly identical to Cease’s 8.5%. King’s 6.2% barrel rate was far better than that of Cease.

Given that similar production and a price tag that’ll be $5-7MM less than that of Cease, it’s easy to imagine some clubs preferring King between the two. If King can fetch what the Padres deem to be a better return, moving the more affordable arm and keeping the more proven/durable righty makes some sense. On the other hand, King still seems likelier to sign an extension than the Boras Corp-represented Cease, and Cease has shown some year-to-year volatility. He posted a below-average ERA as recently as 2023.

If you were in Preller’s shoes and needed to free up some payroll space to address various holes on the roster, how would you proceed with your coveted rotation duo? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Should The Padres Trade?
They shouldn't trade either pitcher. 40.08% (3,072 votes)
They should trade Dylan Cease 28.31% (2,170 votes)
They should trade both. 22.82% (1,749 votes)
They should trade Michael King 8.79% (674 votes)
Total Votes: 7,665

The Opener: Santana, Reds, Relief Market

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With pitchers and catchers set to start reporting in less than two weeks, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Santana, Pirates await hearing results:

Right-hander Dennis Santana and the Pirates went to an arbitration hearing yesterday, according to a report from the Associated Press. Santana struggled early in the season for the Yankees with a 6.26 ERA in 27 1/3 innings despite a solid 3.93 FIP, but upon be plucked off waivers by Pittsburgh he turned his season around and delivered a 2.44 ERA with an identical FIP while striking out 50 batters in his final 44 1/3 innings of work. The righty filed at $2.1MM while the Pirates countered at $1.4MM, leaving a fairly substantial $700K gap between the sides. The hearing occurred against the backdrop of fellow Pirates righty Johan Oviedo losing to the club in his own hearing; Oviedo will be paid $850K rather than $1.15MM as a result. Players won the majority of cases in 2024 but historically teams have typically come out ahead in arbitration hearings.

2. Reds staying active:

This offseason initially appeared likely to be a very quiet one for the Reds, as right-hander Nick Martinez wound up accepting the club’s qualifying offer and that $21.05MM commitment single-handedly took Cincinnati’s payroll for this back to 2024 levels. They’ve managed to stay busy in spite of that, however. Trades for Gavin Lux and Jose Trevino helped bolster the club’s depth. Most recently the Reds have signed outfielder Austin Hays and lefty starter Wade Miley (on a minor league deal) while swinging a trade with the Giants for southpaw Taylor Rogers to bolster the bullpen.

It’s a solid collection of complementary additions, though RosterResource projects the club for a $116MM payroll in 2025 that might represent the upper limits of their payroll capacity for this year. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated earlier this month that the club’s new TV deal for 2025 would allow them to be more active in upgrading the club for the remainder of the winter, but it’s not clear exactly how much more budget space the front office has to work with at this point after $11MM to the payroll in the past week by picking up Hays and Rogers.

3. Relief market movement continues:

Rogers was far from the only notable bullpen arm to change teams yesterday. Free agent right-handers Ryne Stanek, Tommy Kahnle, and Carlos Estevez agreed to deals with the Mets, Tigers, and Royals, respectively. Stanek joins Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, and Jose Butto in the Mets bullpen, while both Kahnle and Estevez appear to be strong bets for high-leverage roles with their new teams. Estevez, in particular, seems to be all but certain to lock down the ninth inning in Kansas City with Lucas Erceg likely to shift back into the setup role he held with the A’s ahead of star closer Mason Miller. Even after yesterday’s moves, plenty of notable names remain available such as David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, and Kyle Finnegan. Who will be the next to sign?

Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?

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One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.

The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.

Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.

Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.

Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.

One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Cardinals Trade Arenado This Offseason?
No, he'll be a Cardinal on Opening Day 2025. 64.22% (5,836 votes)
Yes, but he'll be traded after camp begins on February 17. 18.07% (1,642 votes)
Yes, and he'll be traded before Spring Training. 17.72% (1,610 votes)
Total Votes: 9,088

The Opener: Oviedo, MLB The Show, Managers

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With Spring Training rapidly approaching, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Pirates, Oviedo kick off arbitration season:

Right-hander Johan Oviedo and the Pirates went to the first arbitration hearing of the winter yesterday, according to a report from the Associated Press. A decision in that case is expected today after Oviedo argued for a $1.15MM salary in 2025 while the Pirates countered with $850K. As the AP notes, players won the majority of cases last winter with a 9-6 record, making 2024 the first time they won the majority of hearings since 2019. Teams have a massive 353-266 advantage overall throughout the history of arbitration hearings, so will 2025 fall in line with historical norms or join 2024 to create a trend of players starting to win arbitration cases more frequently? There are 11 more arbitration hearings scheduled, though it’s still possible for a late agreement on a multi-year deal (or one-year deal with an option) in those cases.

2. MLB The Show highlights three young stars:

The cover art for MLB The Show 25 dropped yesterday, and while the previous eight installments all highlighted just one player, this year’s edition features a trio of the game’s brightest young stars: Pirates ace Paul Skenes, Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, and Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. The trio are on the shortlist for the baseball’s most exciting young talents, with Skenes having won NL Rookie of the Year and been a finalist for the NL Cy Young award in his first pro season last year while De La Cruz swiped 60 bags en route to an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting. Over in the AL, Henderson was perhaps most impressive of all as he delivered an incredible season that earned him 9.1 bWAR, 8.0 fWAR, and a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting behind Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto.

3. Managerial extensions on the way?

Yesterday, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner indicated that the club plans to open up extension talks with longtime manager Aaron Boone this spring, ahead of the final season on his contract. Boone took over in the Yankees’ dugout prior to the 2018 season, and while the club has been generally successful in the years since then, his tenure has overlapped with the second-longest World Series drought in franchise history. Boone’s Yankees have posted a 603-429 record overall during the regular season with postseason berths in six of his seven years at the helm, and he’s finished top five in AL Manager of the Year voting four times, including a second-place finish back in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have long been expected to work out an extension with Dave Roberts. Roberts has led the club to nine consecutive postseason berths since taking over in 2016, with four World Series appearances and two championships in that time. He also won the NL Manager of the Year award for his work in 2016 with six other top-five finishes. Overall, L.A. has posted an 851-506 record under Roberts. Club GM Brandon Gomes confirmed yesterday during an appearance on The New York Post’s “The Show” podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman that the club plans to discuss an extension with Roberts before the season begins. Will other clubs open extension talks with their skippers and/or front office personnel? Back on New Year’s Eve, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through a list of managers and baseball operations leaders entering the final season of their contract in 2025.

Poll: The Mariners’ Dilemma In Dealing From The Rotation

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If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.

That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.

The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.

The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco’s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.

The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.

Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.

Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.

That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.

If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should Seattle Handle Its Young Starting Pitching?
Listen to offers, but only trade one if another team makes a huge offer. 59.76% (3,160 votes)
Hold onto the whole group and build around them. 24.94% (1,319 votes)
Shop them aggressively and work out a deal that improves the lineup no matter the cost. 15.30% (809 votes)
Total Votes: 5,288

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