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AL Central Notes: Torkelson, Greene, Barnes, New Zealand, Tito

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Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson and center fielder Riley Greene are universally credited as being in the upper echelon of baseball prospects. In his latest piece for The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen breaks down the odds of either Detroit player making the team’s Opening Day roster. Detroit officials have been cagey about handing either first round draftee a starting job, owing to recent injury concerns and asterisks next to both players’ dominant minor league campaigns (Torkelson, owner of .935 OPS last season, has seen his batting average drop with each minor league promotion; Greene, owner of a .921 OPS, struck out 153 times in 124 games). Asterisks aside, both players are clearly primed for Major League action soon, even if some extra seasoning is required before they assume their natural positions at the big league level. The possibility remains that Opening Day is pushed back while the minor league season starts as scheduled, giving top young talent a chance to refine their approaches in the minors and make the Opening Day team.

Some other notes from the AL Central…

  • One of Detroit’s less heralded minor league talents also has reason to believe he’ll be making an impact on the Tigers roster this year. Reliever Jacob Barnes, who signed a pre-lockout minors pact with the team, recently discussed with Evan Petzold of The Detroit Press why he eschewed offers from over a dozen other teams to sign with Detroit. Barnes believes the Tigers coaching staff can help him refine a pitch arsenal that has become inconsistent in the wake of injuries in recent seasons. With a fastball that can once again hit 98mph, the hope for both player and team is that Barnes can build on the form that led to droves of strikeouts and groundballs in his first three seasons as a Brewer.
  • One last Tigers note, of less prudence but more international intrigue than the others. Per MLB.com’s transaction page, the Tigers have signed 18-year-old Clayton Campbell out of New Zealand to a minor league deal. The young prospect is viewed as third baseman at this point, though he also has catching and pitching experience. As an international free agent, Campbell was exempt from any restrictions that would prevent a team from signing him to a minor league deal during the lockout. He’ll look to work his way through the Tigers’ minor league system and become the first New Zealand native to reach the Major Leagues.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney has a piece of good news for Guardians fans, reporting that manager Terry Francona remains on track to return in good health next season. After a number of health woes the past few seasons, it certainly registers as a positive development to hear Francona is on the upswing. Cleveland brass, fans, and rivals alike know firsthand how impactful the 2-time World Series winner can be from the dugout, as he’s guided his club to a strong 753-601 record during his 9-year Cleveland tenure.

Latest On Athletics’ Manager Search

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TODAY: Espada’s interview has taken place, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).

DECEMBER 6: In addition to the recently-documented Matt Quatraro, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli verified five other managerial candidates for the vacant Oakland skipper position. Included in the current group of candidates are a number of names already within the Oakland organization— third base coach Mark Kotsay, bullpen coach Marcus Jensen, and hitting coach Darren Bush. Rounding out the group are Boston bench coach Will Venable and Houston bench coach Joe Espada. Half of the group (Quatraro, Kotsay, and Venable) has already interviewed, with the remaining half expected to interview soon.

After 11 seasons of .528 ball under Bob Melvin, it makes sense for Oakland brass to look to Melvin’s cohorts for a successor. Kotsay is likely the most familiar name among the internal candidates, as he is a 17-year veteran and played for seven different teams during his lengthy career. Dating back to 2014 Kotsay has assumed a number of Major League roles, accumulating the titles of hitting coach, bench coach, quality control coach, and third base coach. Kotsay is light on managerial experience but is no stranger to the managerial rumor mill, being linked to recent searches conducted by Houston, Boston, and Detroit.

A former catcher, Jensen was no stranger to the big leagues either, appearing in 7 Major League seasons for as many teams. Jensen has been in the Oakland organization since 2007, serving as a hitting coach and manager for several of Oakland’s minor league affiliates. He’s served as an A’s coach at the game’s highest level since 2014.

Bush is a baseball veteran as well, though has seen a notable chunk of his playing and coaching days come on the indie ball circuit. Since joining Oakland’s minor league ranks as a coach in 2004, Bush has accrued a good deal of managerial experience at the lower levels. His consistent success as a minor league manager led to a Major League promotion, where Bush has served as a bullpen or hitting coach since 2013.

Like Kotsay, Espada has been a fixture in managerial candidate discussions for years. The Houston coach and former second-rounder has seen his fair share of success over the past four years, recently piquing the interest of the Giants, Rangers, and Cubs.

Venable is a veteran of 9 Major League seasons, including an impressive 20-20 campaign in 2013 for the Padres. Since his retirement, Venable has worked in advisory and coaching positions for the Chicago Cubs. Venable hopped over to the Red Sox organization in 2020 and served as the bench coach for this year’s resurgent Boston club. Like others on this list, Venable has turned heads as a potential manager for years, drawing interviews for recent Houston and San Francisco vacancies.

Offseason Notes: Free Agent Spending, Buxton, Twins

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With the offseason in limbo, let’s take a look at a couple of pre- and post-lockout topics…

  • ESPN’s MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel polled team executives and agents several weeks ago, asking industry members to predict how much activity would occur before the CBA expired. Those polled were conservative in their predictions, expecting little money to be spent and few free agents to leave the board. With the power of hindsight, we now know that money flew as numerous free agents departed the open market for rich team contracts. Recently, McDaniel again polled a group of agents, asking what to expect when the free agent market unfreezes. For the second time, the agents took a conservative view. The majority of polled agents felt team owners were big spenders in advance of the CBA’s expiration to undermine MLBPA arguments that clubs weren’t spending enough to be competitive. Once a new CBA is reached, these agents expect owners to tighten their purse strings and for free agents to sign for less than their pre-lockout counterparts. History suggests that teams will continue to spend after a new CBA is reached, but it remains to be seen if that trend will continue or if the agents will have their skepticism validated.
  • In a more uplifting display of the agent-MLB team relationship, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes dives into the backstory of Byron Buxton’s recent extension with the Twins. Hayes notes that the 7-year, $100MM extension signed by Buxton took more than four years to negotiate, but was completed on the strength of president Thad Levine’s persistence and Buxton’s desire to be a lifelong Twin. Thanks to the unique incentives structure in the agreement, the contract in many respects serves as a perfect compromise between both parties. The 27-year-old Buxton can earn over $10MM in incentives during every year of the contract, depending on playing time and performance, while staying in Minnesota through his age-34 season. The Twins meanwhile, are on the hook for an annual (and palatable) $15MM salary after next year, and won’t have to pay Buxton superstar money any year that injuries prevent him from making a huge impact on the field. The contract defied industry expectations, per Hayes, as several rival teams expected Minnesota’s budget restraints to scuttle a deal. Ultimately, both sides stayed open-minded and got creative to satisfy the initial goal: to keep one of baseball’s most dynamic talents in a Twins uniform.

Update On Mets’ Managerial Search

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Not long after reports of the A’s conducting their first managerial interview surfaced, the Mets have begun an interview carousel of their own. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets conducted their first managerial interview today, and expect to keep the process going Tuesday. Among the identified managerial candidates include a trio of bench coaches— Houston’s Joe Espada, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro, and Pittsburgh’s Don Kelly— as well as two veteran managers, Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus.

Martino notes that the current list of candidates still has room to grow, but throws cold water on the notion that beloved Mets alumni Curtis Granderson and David Wright will interview after their names surfaced in earlier discussions. Whoever makes the shortlist and earns a shot at interviewing will meet with newly-minted GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Owner Steve Cohen will meet with vetted candidates some time after the initial round of interviews.

The identity of today’s interviewed candidate was none other than Brad Ausmus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ausmus has quite a few things going for his candidacy that surely helped net him the first opportunity to meet with Mets decision-makers. One such factor working in Ausmus’s favor is his relationship to Eppler, as Ausmus served as a special assistant to Eppler before being promoted to dugout manager in 2019 while the two were with the Angels. In other networking news, Fansided’s Robert Murray also notes that Ausmus is a Dartmouth alum like Mets president Sandy Alderson and assistant GM Bryn Alderson.

Unlike some of the candidates who have yet to interview, Ausmus also has a track record as a Major League manager. Between his time with the Angels and Detroit, he has compiled a 386-412 record as a manager, including two winning seasons at the helm and a playoff appearance. It probably also doesn’t hurt Ausmus’s case that his best season in Detroit coincided with Max Scherzer’s last season in the AL. Scherzer, one of the Mets’ marquee pickups this offseason, owns one of the game’s more fiery personalities and is perhaps best handled by a dugout operator who’s familiar with his tempo.

If Quatraro’s name rings a bell it may be because he interviewed with the A’s within the past couple of days. That the Tampa Bay bench coach has landed interviews for 100% of this offseason’s managerial vacancies is no surprise. The Rays have proven their division’s winningest team during Quatraro’s time as bench coach, no small feat considering the powerhouses that reside within those same confines. Martino reports that Quatraro is in line for a Tuesday interview.

There aren’t many updates for the remaining candidates of Espada, Kelly, and Showalter, though they all remain highly credible options in the wake of MLBTR’s profile of their candidacies last week. Jon Heyman does note (via Twitter) that Espada and Eppler share a “strong link” dating back to their time in the Yankees organization, and calls Espada a “serious contender”.

Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

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The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season. As we saw with Boston’s recent reacquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr. however, the Red Sox clearly aren’t afraid of shuffling players around if it means upgrading their defense. Even on the heels of a modest-for-him campaign, metrics across the board agree that Story would be an improvement with the glove over the incumbent Bogaerts. Of course, with Seattle allegedly showing interest in Story as a third baseman it’s possible Boston can do the same, choosing instead to move Rafael Devers (a subpar defender in his own right) off his position for a presumed upgrade in Story.

The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely).

Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old.

The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece.

Blue Jays Ready To Spend After Lockout

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A recent report from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith gives Toronto fans something to look forward to after MLB’s lockout draws to a close. In addition to having trade discussions prior to the league’s halt on transactions, the Jays reportedly also have money to spend on additional free agents. Nicholson-Smith identifies acquiring an infielder and additional pitching as remaining needs for the club.

It was already expected that the Blue Jays would raise their payroll coming off a highly encouraging 2021 season, but the offseason to date has offered mixed signals about how high the payroll can stretch. Despite handing out a big dollar contract to Kevin Gausman (and a smaller dollar contract to Yimi Garcia) the organization has already seen its three top free agents sign for rich contracts elsewhere.

The Jays ended the 2021 season with $154MM in payroll obligations, per Cot’s Contracts. Including arbitration projections, RosterResource currently places the Toronto payroll, for luxury tax purposes, at $161MM.  Nicholson-Smith’s report, though, indicates that the $161MM mark can continue to be pushed further.

It’s also worth noting that the Jays most likely trade chips coming into the offseason were thought to be of the catcher variety. Numerous teams have now picked the catcher market clean, with the Yankees and perhaps the Guardians as the only remaining contenders with questions at the position. An intra-division trade seems unlikely and the Blue Jays certainly have non-catcher prospect capital to deal from, but a lack of demand for one of Toronto’s most abundant resources may drive them to upgrade via free agency.

Fortunately for the 91-win team, the free agent market still has options for a front office looking to upgrade its infield. Kris Bryant and, if he’s open to a position change, Trevor Story can be had at the right price to cover third base. If Toronto is aiming for a more modest expenditure, they can also target the lefty-batting Kyle Seager or reunite with switch-hitting Jonathan Villar to compliment Santiago Espinal at the hot corner. These latter two options would serve as insurance in case Espinal is unable to build on his strong 2021 performance or Cavan Biggio fails to bounce back.

The pitching market is less flush with options but continues to carry upside at various price points. Carlos Rodon and Kenley Jansen represent two players who, for a premium, can help anchor a rotation and bullpen, respectively. Looking into Danny Duffy or old friend Ryan Tepera would serve a similar function for a lower cost, should the Jays prefer to splash their funds around more evenly.

Of course, just yesterday it was reported that Toronto expressed interest in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman). For reference on how much the lefty may cost, MLBTR predicted a two-year $20MM contract for the starting pitcher. Yesterday’s report portrayed a competitive market for the lefty, however, with multiple three-year offers potentially shifting the projected amount it may take to sign Kikuchi. Regardless of who baseball’s best team north of the border pursues, it’s clear they will be active when they’re next able.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.

At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.

Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.

Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.

Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.

Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.

Padres Have Reportedly Expressed Interest In Nick Castellanos

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Serving as one of the last free agent rumors of the night before yesterday’s lockout officially commenced, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres were “showing strong interest” in free agent Nick Castellanos. An important disclaimer here is that teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions during the duration of this lockout. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how strongly yesterday’s reported interest in Castellanos will persist when the transaction freeze is over. Nonetheless, this is a notable piece of insight into how San Diego may operate when they’re free to bolster their roster again.

The 29-year-old Castellanos should appeal to the Padres and a number of teams for one simple reason: he’s a very good hitter. In 138 games this past season the right fielder posted personal best offensive numbers en route to a .309/.362/.576 slash line (136 OPS+) with 34 home runs. Statcast metrics largely support the output, by virtue of how frequently Castellanos makes hard contact.

One knock on Castellanos over the years is that he’s been something of a free-swinger, waving and missing at balls outside the strike zone. Statcast numbers showed more of the same in that regard during 2021. Castellanos was able to mitigate concerns about being too much of a free-swinger in one notable respect, however, since he cut down his strikeout rate to a better-than-most 20.7%. The ability to be aggressive early in the count but avoid strikeouts is an asset that will likely give teams more confidence in the player than they had in him after a replacement-level 2020 showing.

The other well-documented knock against Castellanos has been his subpar defensive ratings over the years. Despite possessing above average speed, the outfielder continued the trend of uninspiring outfield play in 2021. Any NL team looking to add Castellanos’s bat to a lineup knows they’ll be taking a bit of a hit when he takes his glove out into the field.

Those documented shortcomings, as well as the obvious offensive upside, actually lend some traction to a Padres pursuit. San Diego is a team that clearly values contact skills— they were the 5th best team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts last season. As for the defensive side of things, San Diego (and several other NL teams) may be of the mindset that when the lockout subsides the DH will exist for all 30 teams. Stowing MLBTR’s 10th-ranked free agent at a DH spot, with occasional outfield reps, seems a perfectly reasonable move then for a team whose offense proved surprisingly middling last season. Even without the DH, it’s possible some outfield shuffling can take place to accommodate Castellanos now that incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham is a free agent.

Rangers Sign Yohel Pozo, Three Others To Minor League Deals

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The Rangers have re-signed catchers Yohel Pozo and David Garcia to minor league contracts, tweets Rangers Executive VP of Communications John Blake. Additionally, Blake reports that minor league free agents Meibrys Viloria, a catcher, and right-handed pitcher Jesus Tinoco have been signed as well. All four players have received invitations to Spring Training. The deals were announced last night, before the lockout and transaction freeze.

Pozo is the highest profile member of the bunch after seeing 21 games of action with Texas last season. He, along with Garcia, were non-tender casualties yesterday so that Texas could make room for their bevy of recent free agent signings. The Rangers will be happy to have the 24-year-old Pozo back after he posted a uniquely incredible season at Triple-A Round Rock. In 77 games the catcher reached base via walk just seven times (2.2% walk rate), but struck out a stingy 42 times (13% strikeout rate). Contact-oriented approaches are seldom this extreme, but Pozo made it work as he slashed .337/.352/.622 with 23 home runs before his Major League promotion.

The 21-year-old Garcia returns to Texas after posting a .647 OPS at the High-A level last season. That tepid showing notwithstanding, the Rangers organization clearly holds the young catcher in high regard. This was evidenced last year, as the team protected him from the Rule 5 draft despite never playing a game above the Low-A level.

Viloria joins a new organization after spending his professional career up to this point with the Royals organization. The 24-year-old catcher saw limited action on Major League Royals squads from 2018-2020, but was held in the upper minors this past season and produced a decent .752 OPS. Tinoco meanwhile has seen most of his action from the Rockies organization, most recently pitching 54 innings of 6.00 ERA ball at Triple-A.

Cubs Sign Michael Hermosillo

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The Cubs have re-signed outfielder Michael Hermosillo to a one-year Major League contract, per the team. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the contract is worth $600k.  The 26-year-old outfielder was not tendered a contract yesterday in advance of the MLB non-tender deadline.

The well-rounded outfielder battled injuries last season but managed a power-happy approach in his short time with the Cubs, posting a .194/.237/.500 slash line with three home runs through 38 plate appearances. This was Hermosillo’s first year with the Cubs organization after being designated for assignment by the Angels last year.

Hermosillo is presently set to team with recent Chicago addition Harold Ramirez as outfielders who can cover all three spots. As the Major League-nature of this deal indicates, however, the Cubs likely hope Hermosillo forces their hand and battles his way into a starting spot next season. Despite his sporadic action at the game’s highest level, the outfielder has proven dynamic in 203 Triple-A games, boasting an OPS of .863 with 42 home runs and 33 steals (in 47 tries).

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