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Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?

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Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.

Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.

Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.

Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.

Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.

Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.

With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?

Coaching Notes: Blue Jays, Vieira, Mets, Stankiewicz, Nationals

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The Blue Jays made a noteworthy addition to their coaching ranks Monday, hiring Jaime Vieira as a minor league hitting coach per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. Vieira, a former softball standout and coach, is no stranger to the Toronto organization after spending the past two seasons with the club in various roles. Most recently she occupied a baseball operations research and development role last year, assisting the club with its 2021 draft among other tasks. The bump up to hitting coach reflects success in Vieira’s previously held roles as well as the continuation of an encouraging industry trend to seek out talented personnel regardless of gender. While Vieira is set to serve as the first female coach in the Toronto organization, this news comes in the wake of several other firsts this past week, including Rachel Balkovec’s ascension to manager in the Yankees organization and Genevieve Beacom becoming Australia’s first professional female baseball player.

Some other personnel notes from baseball’s eastern divisions…

  • The Mets search for a bench coach under new skipper Buck Showalter continues, as Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the team “checked in on” but was ultimately rebuffed by Grand Canyon University head coach Andy Stankiewicz. Showalter and Stankiewicz have some history, as the latter served as a utility man for Showalter’s Yankees in 1992 and 1993. This cordial refusal is the latest in a string of recent rejections for the Mets organization, who were denied a chance to speak with San Francisco pitching coach Andrew Bailey for their bench coach vacancy earlier today.
  • The Nationals have made a smattering of recent hires, per Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic. Joe Dillon has returned to the organization as a minor league hitting coordinator after a few years as the Phillies’ major league hitting coach. The club has also hired Michael Schatz away from the Reds to serve as the organization’s lead research and development analyst. Lastly, GM Mike Rizzo has also welcomed three new special assistants to his front office: Willie Fraser and Mike Pagliarulo, recently with the Marlins, and Greg Hunter, who last served as a scout for the Mariners.

What You Thought Was The Most Questionable December Deal Five Years Ago

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While news of minor league deals, international signings, and coaching hires continue to trickle in, much of the baseball fandom has stayed engaged thanks to one thing: speculation. For weeks, fans and writers have used what information they can gather during MLB’s lockout to predict what the next CBA will look like, which free agents will sign where, and who is going to draw the most trade buzz. With little in the way of breaking news many of us have shifted gears towards thinking about the future, though now seems as optimal a time as any to reflect on the past.

Five years ago in December 2016, the baseball hot stove was cranked all the way up. Outside of one day in the beginning of the month, it’s easy to hail 2016’s closing month as more consistently action-packed with baseball news than the December we just experienced. In fact, December of 2016 was so rife with moves that MLBTR crafted a poll, titled “Dubious December Decisions“, asking readers which recent move they found to be the most questionable.

Several contentious baseball moves were made five Decembers ago, but for the poll’s sake we zeroed in on three: The Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton, in which they surrendered then-prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning; the Rockies’ decision to sign outfielder/shortstop Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70MM deal and play him at first base, forfeiting the 11th overall pick in the amateur draft; and the Yankees’ decision to sign Aroldis Chapman to a record 5-year, $86MM deal.

Nearly 15,000 people voted in this 2016 poll and ranked the moves as follows, with higher vote percentages representing the most skepticism:

  • Adam Eaton to Nationals (50%)
  • Ian Desmond to Rockies (32.2%)
  • Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (13.1%)
  • Other (3.6%)

The Eaton deal proved far and away the most head-scratching by voters, who questioned why the Nationals would surrender some of their best prospects for a right fielder when a certain Bryce Harper already had the position covered.  Advocates of the deal on the Nationals side were quick to point out that Giolito, the headlining prospect of the deal, didn’t look very promising in his first Major League action during the 2016 season. Eaton, meanwhile, was signed to an affordable contract through the 2021 season, averaged a 119 OPS+ and 5.3 bWAR in the three seasons prior to the deal, and could play center field until there was a vacancy in right field (hint: there was).

Early returns for the Nationals side of the deal didn’t seem as terrible as many feared. Eaton struggled to stay healthy, but was productive offensively, slashing .288/.377/.425 (109 OPS+) in his first three seasons in the NL. Giolito went on to have his worst minor league season in 2017 and gave up the most earned runs of any pitcher in 2018. Lopez generally struggled across those three years out of the White Sox rotation, outside of a decent 2018 showing, while Dunning pitched well, albeit exclusively in the minor leagues.

The past couple of years have quite handily tipped the trade in Chicago’s favor however. The right-handed Giolito turned a sharp corner entering the 2019 season, and has now garnered Cy Young consideration every year since his ’19 emergence. Lopez has had trouble with consistency, but is coming off a season that saw him pitch out of the bullpen at times to post a cumulative 3.43 ERA. Dunning, meanwhile, was the key piece in the trade that sent Lance Lynn from Texas to Chicago.

Eaton saw his production crater in 2020 and ultimately had his 2021 option bought out by the Nationals. Adding some insult to injury, Eaton ended up signing with the White Sox as their regular right fielder before last season. Eaton’s 2021 Chicago tenure didn’t last long, as he managed 58 games before being designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels for a spell but couldn’t quite reignite the abilities that made him such a trade commodity back in 2016. He’s now in a state of limbo while he mulls retirement.

While the young pieces surrendered in the Eaton trade make that deal seem the most regrettable in hindsight, a win-now Nationals club benefitted from Eaton when they needed him most. In the 2019 World Series that the team would go on to win, Eaton slashed an incredibly useful .320/.433/.560 with two home runs and a steal for good measure. Neither the Rockies or Yankees have taken home a World Series trophy in the past five years, though it’s hard to attribute their 2016 deals as the reason for that common distinction.

Unlike the Eaton deal, the Desmond deal largely proved a sunk cost from the very beginning. In his first year in Colorado, Desmond was unable to match his All-Star form in Texas, slashing .274/.326/.375 while learning a new position. Desmond produced a 20-20 season in 2018, but his accompanying OPS+ of 83 left a lot to be desired from a first baseman in Coors Field. Desmond shifted to the outfield full time in 2019 and again chipped in 20 homers, though his offensive and defensive contributions were consistently regarded below average.

Desmond has since opted out of the two most recent seasons, owing to pandemic conditions and a desire to be with his family. The Rockies bought out an option on Desmond’s contract in November, sending him to free agency and potentially spelling an end to the respected veteran’s Major League career.

While the Desmond contract was a misstep for the Colorado front office, it can be argued that they weren’t “$14MM and a better first baseman” away from being championship contenders at any point during Desmond’s tenure. The front office gambled on an All Star’s upside and it didn’t quite pan out, only costing money— mostly.

The Rockies aren’t entirely off the hook for this deal yet considering they surrendered a high draft pick to dream on Desmond. Few can be sure who the Rockies would have selected with the 11th overall pick in 2017, of course, or how the player would have developed in Colorado’s farm system. Still, it may sting Rockies fans to know that All-Star Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers was taken two picks after the sacrificed pick, at 13th overall. The rest of the first round has yet to produce any All-Stars, though it does feature a number of highly regarded prospects, including touted Royals first base prospect Nick Pratto.

The Yankees portion of the poll is much more cut and dry review-wise than the first two deals. Fans didn’t think the Yankees would regret this deal as much as the other clubs and they were proven correct.

Chapman has been as advertised, flashing erratic control in his first three seasons in pinstripes but combining it with lights out stuff. The flame-throwing closer comes with baggage and has a habit of making things interesting, but he’s been so effective that the Yankees reached a new agreement with Chapman back in 2019, keeping him in the fold through the 2022 season. Since signing that contract extension, Chapman has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with an elite 41.3% strikeout rate that largely makes up for an unenviable 14.6% walk rate. Even if Chapman struggles next season, it’s hard to say New York hasn’t already come out ahead on their partnership with the closer.

All that said, our readers proved that informed speculation can age quite well. Flags will fly forever in D.C., but it’s surely a tough pill for a retooling Nats club to swallow now that every one of their traded prospects has proved valuable elsewhere. But what do you think? Do you feel like the Rockies’ deal should have garnered the distinction of being the most questionable? After all, even if the Nationals overpaid to acquire Eaton, one could argue it was a more logical decision than signing a non-first baseman as a first baseman. Or perhaps you have another deal from December ’16 that you feel deserves more head-shaking and finger-wagging. Be sure to let us know in the comments!

NL Notes: Knebel, Phillies, Mets Coaches, Reds

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In a piece for the The Athletic, Matt Gelb recaps the frantic lead-up to the Phillies’ signing of right-handed reliever Corey Knebel, which included an unfortunately timed trip to Mexico and a number of insightful quotes from Knebel himself. One particular quote of note is that Knebel and Philadelphia “entertained” a two-year contract before ultimately settling on a one-year, $10MM guarantee.

While Knebel is the presumptive closer for his new club at this time, neither he nor president Dave Dombrowski have confirmed as such. Accordingly, Knebel says he’s using the personal risk of a one-year contract as motivation to regain the form that made him one of the game’s most dominant arms from 2017-2018. As the “$10MM” portion of his latest contract indicates, however, Knebel may not need much more motivation to regain elite status at the back of a pen. After all, a newfound reliance on his curveball led to the right-hander spinning 25 plus innings of 2.45 ERA ball with the Dodgers last season.

While health and its corresponding impact on effectiveness is always a question with pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery, the Phillies front office was surely pleased by Knebel demonstrating some of the best control he’s had in his career. Further dampening health concerns were Knebel’s strikeout abilities, which were down during the season from his own lofty 2017-2018 heights, but were still solidly above average and exploded in the playoffs— in 5+ innings the right-hander struck out 11 batters against just one walk.

In other news out of the National League…

  • The Mets have been one of baseball’s busiest teams during the lockout thus far, and have been the runaway winner in activity over the past 48 hours. The team already reeled in its biggest coaching fish of the offseason back in December when they hired Buck Showalter, but they have since announced plans to hire a number of other coaches around him. Among the recent coaches set to join the Mets coaching staff are first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora, and hitting coach Eric Chávez, who was successfully wooed away from the crosstown Yankees. Mike Puma of the New York Post explains (via Twitter) the reason none of these coaching additions have yet been made official. Puma states that every prospective hire is receiving a “very thorough” background check, which is likely delaying an official announcement from the club on this trio of reported coaches. It remains to be seen if this thoroughness is delaying the hire of the team’s alleged high-profile mystery bench coach as well. That the club is being methodical in its search for new club personnel should register as a shock to no one, with several high-profile members enjoying unceremonious ends to their New York tenures in recent years.
  • Bob Nightengale reports that the Reds have signed center fielder Lorenzo Cedrola to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. A signee out of Venezuela with some prospect pedigree, Cedrola was traded by Boston to Cincinnati back in 2018 for international bonus pool space. The 23-year-old will now look to continue his work in the Reds farm system, where he’s fresh off his first Triple-A promotion and an overall .315/.354/.458 season. His 10 home runs across 115 games last season easily represent a career high, though Cedrola’s 10 for 18 showing on the basepaths could use some work if he’s to crack the Reds’ uncertain outfield mix in 2022.

Max Scherzer Discusses Lockout

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As the MLB lockout continues into 2022, little indication has been given that the current status quo is set to expire any time soon. This morning’s news, that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have yet to schedule their next bargaining session, all but affirms that.

Despite the ongoing transaction freeze and tight-lipped nature of CBA talks, players haven’t avoided headlines altogether. Recently, a trio of All-Star MLBPA members— Zack Britton, Marcus Semien, and Lucas Giolito— spoke about the current state of the lockout. Today, another high profile MLBPA member joined the fray to discuss the seeming malaise surrounding CBA negotiations: Max Scherzer.

Speaking with Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the perennial Cy Young contender hit on a number of familiar points. First among them, Scherzer reiterated the union’s stated goal to increase competitive integrity in the game, that is, to increase incentive for all 30 teams to win games instead of opting for the well documented tank method. “We feel as players that too many teams have gone into a season without any intent to win during this past CBA. Even though that can be a strategy to win in future years, we’ve seen both small-market and large-market clubs embrace tanking, and that cannot be the optimal strategy for the owners.”

Concerns about service-time manipulation are something Scherzer and the union are also looking to address in the next CBA. The right-handed pitcher name-checks the Kris Bryant grievance as one example, though whispers of front offices leveraging the current system to maximize player control have been long presumed.

Beyond the belief that certain players are being held in the minors artificially long, Scherzer also posits that “middle-class free agents” are being slighted under the current system as well. The ability of teams to minimize a player’s early career earnings and open-market earnings doesn’t sit right with Scherzer, who believes this approach is in direct contrast to what an earlier union deal, dubbed “the grand bargain“, sought to accomplish. “The grand bargain is that you make less money early in your career so that you can make more money later in your career. Teams have shown that they’re not willing to pay for players’ past production for a whole slew of reasons. And if that’s the case, that’s the case. But if we’re going to look at players that way, then we need to then allocate more money to players earlier in their career.”

Scherzer further reiterates that the union is not interested in any system that ties player compensation directly to league revenues, citing that doing so would implement a cap system that’s at odds with the sport’s free market economics. Of course, players and fans have noticed that while a cap system may not currently exist, teams have increasingly behaved like the luxury tax threshold acts as one.

Treating the current luxury tax threshold as a hard cap naturally curtails player spending, even if a small handful of players sign record-setting contracts every offseason. As the beneficiary of one such contract,  Scherzer pushes back on the notion that the current system works fine, because despite his compensation, a number of players will still be left to scramble for jobs with limited time and opportunity after the lockout.

Ultimately, Scherzer concludes that a number of player concerns need to be remedied in the next CBA for the game to continue with integrity. Because the current system affects every player adversely in one way or another, and the players are “galvanized” by this perception, he asserts that the union is as strong as it’s ever been. When asked if the current stare-down between league and union could lead to a delayed season, Scherzer was hopeful, but non-committal:

“It’s too hard to even speculate what the future looks like. You’re just in limbo right now. You’re training ready to be good to go for when spring training starts. If that doesn’t happen, then you make different decisions based on that. But until that happens, you have to have the mentality that we’re going to be playing on time. Any other kind of speculation is just hearsay.”

Under-The-Radar Star Can Shape Phillies Offseason

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In 2021 an NL East pitcher threw close to 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and received Cy Young votes for his pitching prowess. Elsewhere in the division, a pitcher threw over 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and remains relatively obscure. That first pitcher was Mets superstar Jacob deGrom. The second pitcher was lefty Ranger Suárez, and he may be the key to the Phillies’ offseason.

Coming into the season, Suárez was even more obscure than he is coming out of it. An international signing out of Venezuela in 2012, the left-handed Suárez climbed the ranks of the Phillies farm system to little fanfare. After reaching the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018, and in two ensuing stints in 2019 and an illness-interrupted 2020, Suárez did little to distinguish himself from the pack. Through 67 innings across those first three looks, the Phillies pitcher sported a 4.66 ERA that ERA estimators largely validated. The only standout skill in that modest sample was an ability to generate groundballs, as opposing hitters smacked pitches into the dirt 52.7% of the time when facing the young Philly.

In May of this past season, Suarez was called up from Triple-A Lehigh for what is likely the final time in his career, as he joined the bullpen to back up a top-heavy Philadelphia rotation. Pitching in mostly multi-inning appearances, Suarez didn’t yield an earned run until his twelfth appearance of the season. This roll continued, even if Suarez proved fallible and put up a 2.25 ERA in the next 20 innings until the trade deadline. This dominant run through July convinced the Phillies to promote the lefty into their rotation, replacing Spencer Howard, the starter Suarez regularly mopped up innings for, after a trade with the Texas Rangers.

As a starter, Suarez rode his hot streak to the end of the season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA in 65 plus innings, and securing Philadelphia’s 82nd win of the season. All told, the breakout left-hander pitched to a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. A 2.72 FIP and 3.51 SIERA portend some regression, but above average command and strikeout abilities, plus a whopping 58.2% groundball rate, indicate that there was more than just luck at play in that final ERA. Additionally, Suárez was one of the best in the league at inducing soft contact per Statcast, whose metrics are even more bullish than those FIP or SIERA figures.

It’s rare for a season of this caliber to fly so under the radar come awards season, though Phillies advocates were likely a bit busy banging the Cy Young drum in favor of ace Zack Wheeler. For historical context though, a case could be made that the dual-role pitching Suarez was worthy of some down-ballot attention, if nothing else. After all, previous pure relievers Eric Gagne, Rollie Fingers, and former-Philly closer Steve Bedrosian all won the league’s top pitching award with comparable, and arguably inferior campaigns in the past. Award-winner Bryce Harper, who took home NL MVP honors in 2021, stumped for his teammate to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award that ultimately went to Buster Posey. 

All of that’s to say, for as unheralded as he was, Ranger Suarez was very good in 2021. Per Fangraphs’ RosterResource page, the left-handed pitcher is expected to slot into a rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, while Texas acquisitions Kyle Gibson and Hans Crouse round out the group. Rotation mainstay Zach Eflin, who flashed breakout potential the past two seasons before illness and knee troubles derailed his most recent campaign, should return early next season if he recovers as expected from September knee surgery.

Each member of that pitching squad carries some combination of health risk and questions about what they can reasonably produce in 2022: Wheeler pitched a career-high number of innings in 2021 after a shortened 2020 campaign; Nola sported an uncharacteristically high 4.63 ERA last season; Gibson’s bottom-line numbers nosedived following his trade to Philadelphia; Crouse has 270 professional innings to his name thanks to injuries, only 7 of which have come at the Major League level; Suárez is unlikely to post another ERA close to 1.00; and Eflin will be returning from surgery. 

One could look at these risks and determine that the Phillies need more depth, should anyone in this group fail to shoulder the bulk of a baseball season’s workload. A rosier stance however, is that the Phillies have one of the best rotations they’ve had in some time. Instead of relying on Vince Velasquez and a post-prime Jake Arrieta, or Matt Moore and Chase Anderson as they did this past year to fill a rotation, the Phillies front office may be looking to add that type of player entirely as depth. That is of course, unless President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld see another opportunity for improvement. 

One creative tactic aimed towards improvement may be for the Phillies to shift Suarez back to the bullpen, at least once Eflin returns or more rotation depth is acquired. As surprising as that move would be on the surface, it would allow Suarez to continue in a dual-role that he’s already proved exceptional. Further, it would bolster a bullpen that finished near the back of the pack in most categories and tied for first in blown saves with 34. It would also equip manager Joe Girardi with a shutdown lefty out of the pen, as Suarez was the toughest pitcher for lefties to hit in 2021. This is in contrast to the bullpen’s current top left-hander, José Alvarado, who walked 47 batters in 55 plus innings last season. 

While the Phillies are currently $29MM under the current CBA’s luxury-tax threshold (per RosterResource’s Jason Martinez), it’s unlikely that they’ll devote a sum greater than the $10MM it took to sign right-hander Corey Knebel to further improve the bullpen. More modest bullpen additions aren’t off the table, as free agent lefty Andrew Chafin and neutral-splits right-hander Colin McHugh are speculative fits that can probably be had for a lower annual amount than Knebel. Regardless of target, however, no free agent addition will prove as cost-effective as shifting the pre-arbitration Suárez to the back of the bullpen.

The versatility afforded by Suárez should not stop the Phillies from reinforcing their rotation depth and bullpen, but it does lessen the need to sink major resources into both. This flexibility will allow the Phillies to turn the bulk of their attention to the position player side of things, an area for the team that hasn’t looked this bare in quite a few offseasons. Half of the lineup is set, but vacancies and question marks are abound in the other half, as left field, center field, third base, and shortstop are set to be filled with players short on Major League success or players coming off down 2020 seasons.

Fanatics To Acquire Topps Sports & Entertainment

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In an increasingly-rare piece of transactional news, online retailer Fanatics has reached an agreement to acquire renowned trading card company Topps Sports & Entertainment, per Scott Soshnick and Eben Novy-Williams of Sportico. Topps Sports & Entertainment represents the trading card and digital collectible portion of the greater The Topps Co. enterprise. The deal is worth $500MM, according to Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton of the Wall Street Journal.

News of tonight’s reported deal comes in the wake of last year’s revelation that Major League Baseball and the MLBPA would not be renewing their longstanding agreement with Topps. Instead, both the league and players union pivoted and partnered with Fanatics on a long-term licensing deal, granting the online sports retailer with exclusive trading card licenses.

Though the Fanatics Trading Cards brand has yet to launch a single product, recent valuations for this portion of the Fanatics enterprise have skyrocketed. Thanks in part to renewed trading card interest by hobbyists during the past two years, a recent valuation of Fanatics Trading Cards now stands at $10.4 billion. Both the MLB and MLBA are equity holders in Fanatics’ new trading card venture, creating an ongoing revenue source for both parties.

In a piece by The Wall Street Journal, Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton note that Fanatics’ original August deal with MLB wasn’t set to begin until after the 2025 season. Likewise, licensing deals with the NFL and NBA were also a few years from kicking in, slowing Fanatics’ push into the trading card space. Acquiring the Topps Sports & Entertainment division now, however, will allow Fanatics to accelerate its foray into this portion of the hobby market years ahead of schedule. In addition to immediate distribution rights of baseball cards, Fanatics also picks up Major League Soccer, UEFA, and Formula One licenses in the deal.

Implications of this acquisition will be far-reaching, though it most directly increases Fanatics hold on a growing industry. The Topps Company will now see business operations span only its candy and gift card divisions, barring further activity from the company’s ownership group. Sports leagues across the world are now primed to see increased revenue streams thanks to their newly cut licensing deals and equity stakes with Fanatics.

For baseball and its players union, this news looms against a still-stagnant lockout backdrop. The financial ramifications of this deal are unlikely to have any immediate impact on the state of the lockout, though it appears another party, Fanatics, now has its interests more wholly aligned with the 2022 baseball season being conducted as scheduled.

Central Notes: Ross, Cubs, Twins, Martin

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In a piece for The Chicago Tribune, Meghan Montemurro recaps David Ross’s first full season managing the Cubs. The turbulent season saw Ross’s Cubs cruise through the early months before a midseason collapse led to a July fire sale. The skipper notes that he was prepared for the club to eventually retool with younger players, but that even he was surprised by the exodus of Cubs veterans on July 31. Ross quipped “I don’t think in my mind I ever thought it was going to be one day,” referencing how the retooling effort was seemingly confined to a single day. The leaner club finished with a 71-91 record and a fourth place finish, a far cry from the team’s first place performance in 2020. Still, Ross relishes the chance to grow as a manager now that Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez likely won’t be holding down the fort with him. The manager’s open-mindedness, combined with his year one success, is part of why Montemurro reminds that Ross is likely to maintain control of the dugout for some time. Ross is guaranteed to be the Cubs manager through 2022, with a 2023 club option, but there is mutual interest in extending those terms. With some contention-minded moves already made, a David Ross extension would be another sign the club is looking to make the playoffs with a new core in place.

Some more from baseball’s central divisions…

  • The Cubs are ramping up their efforts to develop homegrown pitching reports Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The organization was hit with a number of pitching injuries in the minor leagues, with most of the team’s best pitching prospects sidelined at some point this year after last year’s cancelled minor league season. President Jed Hoyer is reluctant to attribute these injuries to increased workloads however, acknowledging that there are a number of ways the organization can help its players better stay on track. To that end, the Chicago organization has hired former MLB pitchers Craig Breslow, Daniel Moskos, and Danny Hultzen to further develop the game plans used by young pitchers as they come up through the system. Under Vice President of Pitching Breslow’s watch, the Cubs pipeline has already started showing improvement. Despite the swath of recent injuries, many of the players who were healthy enough to pitch this past season found improved velocity under the new pitching regime. More work will need to be done before any young player can be fast-tracked to the Majors, but the authors note that any homegrown Cub who breaks through to the big leagues as a pitching fixture will be the first to do so since Jeff Samardzija debuted in 2008.
  • Hopping to the AL Central, where the Twins are dealing with a rare prospect surplus on the heels of their Byron Buxton extension. Writing for The Athletic, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman discuss whether top shortstop/center field prospect Austin Martin can be flipped to acquire a pitcher that will help a Twins rotation short on experience. It would be a short stay in the Minnesota system for Martin, a top-30 prospect who was just acquired in July’s Jose Berrios deal, if he’s dealt. Hayes reasons that the Twins have a dire need for pitching, and speculates that acquiring Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle of the Reds, or Frankie Montas of the A’s would provide a more immediate benefit to a team looking to contend. Neither writer is convinced Martin should be traded, considering the two players ahead of him on the depth chart (Buxton in center field and top-30 prospect Royce Lewis at shortstop) are hardly locks to stay healthy or productive. Still, with the Twins surprising inactivity in the free agent pitching market, both writers agree a lot of work needs to be done to have the pitching staff match a strong position player group.

Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration

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Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year $17MM contract per ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel. This deal registers as a $900K raise on the player’s 2021 season. The deal was reached prior to the sport’s December 1 lockout, but was not officially announced due to the league’s mandate that prevents clubs from discussing player personnel.

The $17MM salary is quite a boon for a player coming off a season that was below replacement-level, as Bellinger slashed just .160/.240/.302 in 95 injury-plagued games. The Dodgers could have non-tendered Bellinger instead of paying such a handsome fee for a hopeful bounceback campaign, but are one of the few clubs in the league who have the payroll to support such a risk.  Further, Bellinger’s salary isn’t guaranteed until he makes the team’s Opening Day roster, meaning there’s still time for the team to backpedal if they lose faith in their decision.

It’s not long ago that non-tendering Cody Bellinger would’ve seemed preposterous, considering Bellinger set an arbitration record after his MVP 2019 season. That .305/.406/.629 campaign is slipping further into the past, but the Dodgers were surely encouraged by Bellinger’s .353/.436/.471 showing this past postseason. The former-MVP can be controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

Mets Hire Buck Showalter As Manager

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After weeks of speculation, the Mets have hired their new manager.  New York announced on Monday that they’ve hired veteran skipper Buck Showalter. It’s reportedly a three-year contract that’ll go down as the largest investment in a manger in franchise history, topping the $9.4MM earned by Art Howe.

“Buck has been one of the best baseball minds for the last two decades and he makes teams better,” owner Steve Cohen said in the team’s statement. “We have a lot of talent on this team and Buck is the right manager to take us to the next level and lead us to sustained success. I am excited he is our new manager.”

It had already been reported that Showalter had advanced past the initial pool of candidates and moved onto the second round of interviews for the managerial opening. This represents another close call at helming a dugout for the other two finalists, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro and Houston’s Joe Espada. Despite reverence around the league for the latter two coaches, industry insiders quickly tabbed Showalter as the frontrunner for the Mets position.

The veteran skipper will now take over a Mets dugout that has been something of a revolving door since Terry Collins’ seven-year run as manager ended after the 2017 season.  Mickey Callaway was fired after two seasons, and following the short-lived hiring of Carlos Beltran, bench coach Luis Rojas took over the manager’s mantle heading into 2020.

The past two seasons saw Rojas sport a 103-119 record, a disappointing sum for a team with so much star power. While Rojas can hardly be pinned as the sole reason for the team’s struggles (the cross-town Yankees promptly hired Rojas as a coach following his dismissal, speaking to his abilities), he did oversee a collapse this past season. After spending 114 days in first place, the Mets were no longer able to weather injuries and under-performance, ultimately limping to a third place finish in their division.

While Rojas, Beltran, and Callaway were first-time MLB managers, Showalter is a known commodity.  Over the course of 20 seasons and 3069 games, Showalter sports a .506% winning percentage and has taken home Manager of the Year hardware with three different clubs (1994 Yankees, 2004 Rangers, 2014 Orioles).

While Showalter has never won a World Series as a manager, many around the league have cited his leadership skills as a reason teams become postseason contenders. Most recently, during his 2010-2018 run with Baltimore, Showalter helped turn a rebuilding club into one of the American League’s winningest teams. After a 69-win inaugural full season with the club, Showalter quickly saw the team post non-losing records in the next 5 seasons. The Orioles made the playoffs three times during that stretch, including once as a first place team— no small feat considering the financial powerhouses that reside in the AL East.

It’s been some time since Showalter managed one of those very powerhouses, last managing the Yankees in 1995. Improbably, he’ll now helm a team with even greater resources at its disposal. In a series of win-now moves, the Mets have launched their 2022 payroll to new heights. RosterResource pegs the Mets to open next season with a franchise-high $263MM payroll, a number that is handily the highest in all of baseball, and was more astonishingly reached with months (and plenty of free agents) left in the offseason.

With the likes of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar already joining the Mets this offseason it’s become imminently clear the NL’s New York club isn’t content to idle under .500.  Pair these additions with star holdovers Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso and the Mets are teeming with top-shelf talent. That collection of players, plus all of the other bounce-back talent on the roster, will give the team’s new manager plenty of firepower to claim a division that has belonged to Atlanta the past four years.

In the ensuing weeks Showalter will round out his coaching staff, while the Mets may still add players to their club after the lockout is lifted. Whatever changes are made before the 2022 season starts however, many pundits and fans will point to this hiring as the team’s key move of the offseason. Hiring a widely-respected stabilizer may be just what the Mets need to capitalize on their potential and get to the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported Showalter’s deal was a three-year contract. Mike Puma of the New York Post reported the deal was the largest for a manager in franchise history.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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