Red Sox To Remove “Interim” Tag From Ron Roenicke’s Title
The Red Sox will soon announce that they’re removing the “interim” tag from interim manager Ron Roenicke’s title, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. He’ll serve as the “permanent” manager for the 2020 season, assuming one is played.
It’s an expected move and one that’s largely a formality. At the time Roenicke was named Alex Cora’s replacement, multiple reports indicated that the organization would remove the “interim” qualifier if and when the league’s investigation cleared Roenicke of any wrongdoing in the 2018 sign-stealing allegations that had been brought for against the club. Today’s announcement from commissioner Rob Manfred, which punished only one current Red Sox employee, will now bring about that anticipated title modification.
[Related: MLB Announces Findings, Discipline Stemming From Red Sox Investigation]
Of course, Roenicke is still signed for only the 2020 season, and his future beyond that is unclear. He’d previously served as Cora’s bench coach, so if the organization opts to bring in a new skipper, it’s possible Roenicke could return to that role or move on altogether. Notably, there appears to be nothing (outside of what would figure to be enormously negative public relations pushback) standing in the way of the Red Sox simply re-hiring Cora for the 2021 season. His league-imposed ban only runs through the 2020 playoffs and Manfred made sure to emphasize that the punishment stemmed only from his wrongdoings while serving as the Astros’ bench coach in 2017 — not for anything he did with Boston.
MLB Announces Findings Of Investigation Into 2018 Sign-Stealing Allegations Against Red Sox
Major League Baseball has concluded its investigation into 2018 sign-stealing allegations against the Red Sox and imposed the following disciplinary measures:
- The Red Sox are stripped of their second-round pick in the 2020 amateur draft
- Red Sox advance scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins has been suspended without pay for the 2020 season and is prohibited from holding his previous role for the 2021 season
- Former manager Alex Cora, fired by the Red Sox earlier this year, has been banned through the 2020 postseason — although only for his role in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.
Those penalties pale in comparison to what many felt was a light Astros punishment in response to their 2017 trash can scheme; Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were both suspended one year (and subsequently fired by the team), while the organization was fined the maximum permissible $5MM and stripped of first- and second-round picks in each of the next two drafts.
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy issued the following statement via press release:
As an organization, we strive for 100% compliance with the rules. MLB’s investigation concluded that in isolated instances during the 2018 regular season, sign sequences were decoded through the use of live game video rather than through permissible means. MLB acknowledged the front office’s extensive efforts to communicate and enforce the rules and concluded that Alex Cora, the coaching staff, and most of the players did not engage in, nor were they aware of, any violations. Regardless, these rule violations are unacceptable. We apologize to our fans and Major League Baseball, and accept the Commissioner’s ruling.
The league announced the findings of what it terms an “exhaustive investigation into allegations of improper use of the video replay room.” Within, commissioner Rob Manfred offered the following breakdown of his findings:
- “I find that J.T. Watkins, the Red Sox video replay system operator, on at least some occasions during the 2018 regular season, utilized the game feeds in the replay room, in violation of MLB regulations, to revise sign sequence information that he had permissibly provided to players prior to the game.
- I find that unlike the Houston Astros’ 2017 conduct, in which players communicated to the batter from the dugout area in real time the precise type of pitch about to be thrown, Watkins’s conduct, by its very nature, was far more limited in scope and impact. The information was only relevant when the Red Sox had a runner on second base (which was 19.7% of plate appearances league-wide in 2018), and Watkins communicated sign sequences in a manner that indicated that he had decoded them from the in-game feed in only a small percentage of those occurrences.
- I do not find that then-Manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox coaching staff, the Red Sox front office, or most of the players on the 2018 Red Sox knew or should have known that Watkins was utilizing in-game video to update the information that he had learned from his pregame analysis. Communication of these violations was episodic and isolated to Watkins and a limited number of Red Sox players only.
- I find that the Red Sox front office consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”
Manfred goes on to emphasize that while he has previously granted players immunity in exchange for truthful testimony in both the Astros and Red Sox investigations, the findings of his Red Sox inquiry would not have led him to consider disciplining players anyhow (which surely would not have been the case with regard to the Astros). The loss of the draft pick, per the commissioner, stems from the fact that he still felt the organization should be held accountable for benefiting from data that was obtained improperly.
Manfred’s report on the investigation details that every player who spent time with the 2018 Red Sox was interviewed in some capacity and provided what were deemed truthful testimonies. A total of 65 witnesses were interviewed during the course of the investigation, and MLB’s department of investigations (DOI) reviewed “tens of thousands of emails, text messages, video clips and photographs,” per the report.
Watkins, the employee on whom the entirety of the wrongdoing is blamed by commissioner Manfred, was an advance scout tasked with using video to decode signs before and after Red Sox games — a permissible act that falls within MLB’s guidelines on the implementation of technology within the game. However, he was also the team’s replay reviewer, responsible during games for coordinating with Cora on whether to challenge a call or not. The report notes that other clubs had that same setup, but an investigation into the Red Sox found that Watkins would, at times, alter pre-game sign sequencing information in the middle of an active game. While most players who were interviewed said they had no knowledge of any wrongdoing by Watkins, others acknowledged that they had suspicions after the data coming from Watkins changed over the course of a game.
Watkins, per Manfred, has “vehemently denied” any such practice, although clearly based on the punishment levied by the league, Manfred and the DOI felt sufficient evidence to the contrary was present. Moreover, the commissioner’s report highlights that Watkins was a “key participant” in the 2017 Apple Watch incident that led to a fine for the Red Sox and helped bring questions about improper use of technology to light on a national basis.
With regard to any potential postseason wrongdoing, Manfred adds that the commissioner’s office positioned “full-time, in-person monitors in replay rooms to prevent the improper use of video equipment.” Such measures were not in place throughout the regular season.
It’s not yet clear precisely why the investigation was so prolonged in the first place and perhaps never will be. Major League Baseball was initially planning to release its findings before the end of February. When the investigation lingered into March, the COVID-19 pandemic obviously and understandably took precedence, thus bringing about a delay of nearly two months that only seems to have heightened the general public reaction that the Boston organization escaped mostly unscathed. But the initial delay into March was never fully explained.
The loss of that second-round pick will give the Sox one less selection in an already shortened draft and dock $1,403,200 from Boston’s pool (the would-be value of that vacated second-rounder). Previously, they’d been slated to have a $6.514MM pool in the event of a five-round draft and a $7.482MM pool for a 10-round format. Put another way, they’ll lose anywhere from 18.8 percent to 21.6 percent of their 2020 draft budget due to the league’s ruling.
Unexplained within Manfred’s report is just why the punishment for Cora, who was called out as an architect of the trash-can-banging setup with the 2017 Astros, is lighter than those which were brought upon Luhnow and Hinch. Cora’s rank within the organization was lower, but his role in the team’s transgressions appears to have been much more integral. Yet Luhnow and Hinch were banned for one year, beginning Jan. 13, 2020 and running through Jan. 13 of 2021, while Cora is only barred through the end of postseason play in 2020. Technically, he could have a job in baseball again before the bans on Hinch and Luhnow have been lifted — despite a pivotal role in the Astros’ scandal and, if not a direct role in the Red Sox’ 2018 infractions, then some negligence or a lack of oversight that one would think should be deemed alarming.
Ultimately, the light punishment for the Sox boils down to the fact that Manfred and his charges are convinced that the wrongdoing was more limited in scope than that of the Astros and largely fell on the shoulders of one employee. Fans and onlookers will, of course, draw their own conclusions about the legitimacy of that finding the the pervasiveness (or lack thereof) of similar setups throughout the league. At this point, however, that’s all largely rendered moot; the commissioner’s punishment has been set, and the matter has been put to bed.
The Red Sox announced not long after Kennedy’s statement that they’ll host a conference call with reporters tonight at 7pm ET, at which point they’ll surely field additional questions on the investigation and its ramifications.
Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic first reported the findings of commissioner Manfred’s investigation, minutes prior to the official announcement.
Did The Rangers Find A Bullpen Gem In The Bargain Bin?
Remember when Rafael Montero was thought of more highly than Jacob deGrom? That sounds like a ridiculous question in 2020, of course, but such a time did indeed exist. In the 2013-14 offseason, Montero ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects according to Baseball America and MLB.com, whereas deGrom ranked 10th in the Mets organization, per BA, and landed outside their top 20 at MLB.com.
That’s not an indictment on any prospect rankings — the general industry consensus seemed to be that Montero was the higher-end farmhand — and it’s hardly unique to deGrom. For two years, Montero ranked ahead of deGrom, Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Jeurys Familia and several notable bats in the Mets system (e.g. Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores).
That feels like ancient history. Some may be wondering why we’re talking about Montero in the first place. The minor league deal he signed with the Rangers in November 2018 didn’t draw much attention, and not everyone took notice when a .500 Rangers club selected Montero’s contract last July. Even those who did take note of the move may not have paid attention the 29 innings from Montero that followed, but at least for a handful of games, the now 29-year-old righty reminded everyone why scouts were at one point so bullish on his arm.
Before delving into Montero’s 2019 season, it’s worth taking an abbreviated run through his Mets career. The righty signed as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic but did so much later than most July 2 prospects, inking his first pro contract at 20 years old. Three years and four months later, Montero was in the big leagues. He punched out 10 hitters and held the D-backs to one run over six innings in his third big league start, and his rookie campaign ended with a solid 4.06 ERA in 44 1/3 innings.
Montero’s 44-inning debut was overshadowed by deGrom’s out-of-the-blue Rookie of the Year season, but he still broke camp with the Mets in 2015 as a member of the bullpen. Unfortunately for Montero, he went down with a shoulder injury in late April after making his first start of the year. That injury helped pave the way for uber-prospect Noah Syndergaard to emphatically seize a rotation spot of his own. Syndergaard and deGrom joined Matt Harvey, Jon Niese and “Big Sexy” Bartolo Colon in a strong Mets rotation that eventually landed in the World Series.
Niese’s offseason departure opened another rotation spot … but it was ultimately claimed by Matz, who’d impressed in his own 2015 debut. Montero spent the 2016 and 2017 seasons struggling between Triple-A and the Majors before undergoing Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season. That November, Montero went unclaimed on waivers and opted for free agency — ending his Mets tenure.
Jump back to this past July, and Montero was summoned back to the big leagues in a new organization as Shawn Kelley hit the injured list. He’d tossed 18 1/3 innings with the Rangers’ minor league affiliates as he rehabbed, posting a sensational 31-to-2 K/BB ratio along the way.
Montero would go on to appear in 22 games for the Rangers, working more than an inning in eight of those contests and only allowing runs in five of them. He tallied 29 innings with Texas, logged a sterling 2.48 ERA, punched out 34 hitters and issued just five walks.
Montero averaged 5.2 walks per nine frames in his time with the Mets, but his Rangers work in both Triple-A and the Majors was a reminder that as a prospect, he was touted for his plus command. He spent much of that Mets tenure working as a starter and/or pitching at less than 100 percent health and still averaged 93.0 mph on his heater — but that number soared to 95.8 mph in 2019. Working in shorter stints and at full health added some newfound life to his four-seamer.
The bigger change for Montero, though, came in his pitch selection. Montero severely ramped up the usage of his changeup — at the expense of his sinker/two-seamer and slider — and did so to great benefit. He’d thrown a changeup in his Mets days but never at a particularly high rate; in 192 1/3 innings as a Met, Montero threw 643 changeups (17.7 percent). Last year, in just 29 frames, he rattled off 181 changeups (39.4 percent). Opponents batted .152/.220/.174 against Montero’s changeup, which registered a strong 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate. Opposing lefties had fits against Montero thanks to that offspeed offering — as evidenced by their putrid .111/.143/.222 slash in 56 PAs against Montero.
Obviously, a sample of 29 innings is far from conclusive. We don’t know when or if the season will resume, but when it does, few would be surprised to see Montero’s effectiveness fade away. But the 2019 version of Montero looks nothing like the pitcher who struggled through four years with the Mets. He’s throwing harder, inducing more whiffs and most importantly, demonstrating control the likes of which he never has at any point in the past.
If he can stay healthy moving forward — and that’s a big if for a pitcher who missed nearly a full year due to rotator cuff troubles and another due to Tommy John surgery — Montero could yet deliver on some of the promise he showed as a prospect in a ridiculously pitching-rich Mets system. He’s still controlled through the 2022 season, too, so the Rangers might have found a fairly long-term piece in the offseason bargain bin.
The Blue Jays’ Uncertain Outfield Mix
When the Blue Jays were at their peak in 2015-16, the outfield wasn’t much of an issue. Jose Bautista was holding down right field as one of MLB’s most feared hitters — the brash owner of a .243/.372/.499 slash line that underscored his patience at the plate and his thunderous power. In center field, Kevin Pillar was a staple on highlight reels thanks to a superhuman defensive prowess that led to his gaudy 38 Defensive Runs Saved in that two-year stretch. Pillar’s .272/.309/.388 slash wasn’t particularly impressive, but paired with his world-beating defense, that made him a plenty valuable player on the whole.
Left field was a bit shakier, if only because of persistent injury troubles for the since-retired Michael Saunders. More often than not, Saunders was in the lineup, though the Jays also trotted out Ben Revere, Ezequiel Carrera and Danny Valencia at times. That was the closest they’ve come to any real inconsistency in that time.
That continuity feels like a distant memory now, as the Jays have since turned over their entire outfield mix on multiple occasions and yet still don’t have much certainty. It appears likely that 2019 breakout slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will get the first look in left field whenever play resumes. His 2019 season at the plate was undeniably impressive — .277/.327/.541, 20 homers in 343 PAs — but it also came in a season that was skewed by a juiced ball. Gurriel’s glovework didn’t rate well, either, though he’s a converted infielder so perhaps there’ll be an uptick with more experience.
Center field seems likely to go to Randal Grichuk, though at this point that’s because of his contract more than his recent play. The Jays signed Grichuk to a surprising extension last spring, and Grichuk responded with a career-worst .232/.280/.457 slash. That .280 OBP was the worst in baseball among qualified hitters. Even without a 2020 season, Grichuk would still be owed $29MM from 2021-23, so he’s sure to get a chance (or multiple chances) at redemption — but a replacement-level showing in year one of the deal isn’t what the Jays had in mind.
The remaining outfield options (in alphabetical order):
- Anthony Alford, drafted in third round (2012): A two-sport star who could’ve pursued a career in football as well, Alford has received just 59 plate appearances in the past three seasons and now finds himself out of minor league options. Alford was a top 100 prospect each year from 2016-18, but he’s yet to even hit in Triple-A and now has no clear path to playing time in such a crowded mix.
- Jonathan Davis, drafted in the 15th round (2013): Davis will turn 28 in a few weeks and has just 122 MLB plate appearances to his credit (with a .185/.264/.259 slash). Davis runs well and has shown a patient eye at the plate in the upper minors, but he’s been a roughly average bat in Triple-A and seems more like a fourth outfielder than a big league regular.
- Brandon Drury, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: As recently as 2016-17, Drury looked like a solid multi-positional piece with the D-backs. Since hitting .275/.323/.453 in that stretch, though, he’s been traded to the Yankees and then the Jays, hitting just .210/.261/.362 in 533 plate appearances along the way. Drury popped up an astonishing 21 times in just 447 plate appearances this past season, and his strikeout rate has risen from 20 percent in ’16 to 25.3 percent in ’19.
- Derek Fisher, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini: With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker all ahead of him during his time with Houston, Fisher never got much of a chance. Like McKinney, he’s not fooled by Triple-A pitching (career .289/.379/.520), but Fisher has whiffed in nearly 37 percent of his 419 Major League plate appearances — including a 40.2 percent mark in 107 PAs with Toronto. He, too, is out of minor league options.
- Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Francisco Liriano: Hernandez came to the Jays as an exit-velocity darling and still makes plenty of good contact, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velo did trend in the wrong direction last year. His strikeout issues aren’t as pronounced as those of Fisher, but Hernandez has punched out at a 32 percent clip in just shy of 1000 Blue Jays plate appearances.
- Billy McKinney, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: A former first-round pick (Athletics, 2013), McKinney has been traded from Oakland to Chicago to New York to Toronto — never receiving a real big league opportunity prior to Toronto. He’s since appeared in 120 games and taken 404 plate appearances with the Jays, but he’s mustered a tepid .227/.289/.437 slash in that stretch. McKinney has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, but that hasn’t stopped the Jays from acquiring new outfield options to join the competition.
The Jays have a potential breakout candidate in left field (Gurriel), a rebound candidate in center (Grichuk) and what seems competition brewing in a make-or-break year for many of their remaining players. The DH spot will give them some extra opportunities to evaluate all of their options from an offensive standpoint, but they’ll also want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez in that spot.
Both Alford and Fisher need to remain on the big league roster or else be exposed to waiver, while Hernandez and McKinney each have just one option year remaining. Drury is more of a utility option than an everyday piece in the outfield, but he was already in danger of being non-tendered this winter and is down to his final option year as well.
On the whole, it’s a rather underwhelming cast of characters despite the club’s considerable efforts to bring together a mix of intriguing, often post-hype outfield candidates. Between this group’s eroding minor league options and talk of Cavan Biggio eventually moving to the outfield — although defensive metrics thought his work at second base was plenty good in ’19 — it’s possible that no one from this set of players will be a part of the next contending outfield unit in Toronto.
The Jays already made one aggressive, win-now move this winter when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu, and team president Mark Shapiro recently indicated that the Jays could use a center field upgrade. If this group can’t get it done whenever play resumes, it seems likely that Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be left with little choice other than pursuing more established options now that the club is moving away from its rebuilding phase.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
The Royals’ Outfield Of Infielders
Alex Gordon‘s story is familiar to most baseball fans. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2005 was soon ranked the game’s No. 2 overall prospect by Baseball America. With a lefty-swinging third baseman being touted as the next face of the franchise, George Brett parallels were (unfairly) drawn. The hype was substantial, and when Gordon arrived on the scene, he struggled to live up to those lofty expectations.
Gordon was worth 4.8 WAR through his first two big league seasons, per both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. His next two seasons were miserable — shortened by torn cartilage in his hip (2009) and a fractured thumb (2010). By the time he’d made it through four MLB campaigns, Gordon owned a career .244/.328/.405 (93 wRC+). Defensively, his work at third base wasn’t well regarded (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating). He began ceding playing time to Alberto Callaspo at third base and was moved to left field during the 2010 season.
The Royals remained patient, however, and Gordon rewarded that faith was a massive breakout in 2011. Suddenly Gordon looked like the franchise cornerstone everyone had hoped. He hit .303/.376/.502 (140 wRC+) and, perhaps even more surprisingly, graded out as one of the best defensive left fielders in recent history (+20 DRS, +12.2 UZR). Almost overnight, Gordon was a six-WAR player. He settled in as an OBP machine with elite defense, solid baserunning and some pop in his bat, and Gordon’s production was a significant factor in Kansas City’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15.
We’re coming up on a decade of Gordon in left field. He’s seen Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki and numerous others cycle through the other outfield slots, but Gordon has remained the constant. And now, as the organization works to emerge from its rebuild in the next couple of seasons, the third-baseman-turned-star-left-fielder is joined in the outfield by … another pair of infielders.
Hunter Dozier never carried the same hype as Gordon, although his No. 8 overall selection in 2013 was only six spots behind Gordon’s draft slot. Dozier was a surprise pick there — ultimately a cost-saving selection designed to offer a larger bonus to Sean Manaea a ways later. That’s not to say Dozier wasn’t a well-regarded draft prospect — he was widely expected to be a day one pick — but top 10 overall was still a surprise.
Dozier struggled through much of his time in the low minors before surprising with a huge .296/.366/.533 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He parlayed that into his first promotion to the big leagues but appeared in only eight games. An oblique tear and wrist surgery wiped out most of his 2017 season, and when Dozier finally got a big league look in 2018, he hit .229/.278/.395 in 388 plate appearances. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate was among the highest in the league, his 6.2 percent walk rate was low, and his glovework was poorly rated. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.8 WAR; Baseball Reference placed a ghastly -1.7 on his overall efforts.
Still, Dozier felt that he finished out the ’18 season well after missing ’17, telling Lynn Worthy of the K.C. Star in the offseason that he “found” himself again late in the year. That comment might’ve been met with eye-rolls from some fans at the time, but no one’s questioning him now.
In 2019, Dozier cut his strikeout rate by three percentage points, upped his walk rate by the same number and saw upticks in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. He swung less often, chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.1 percent clip (compared to 2018’s 35.5 percent) and improved his contact rate. In essence, Dozier stopped chasing so many bad pitches and saw his contact quality improve along with his walk rate. That’s a good recipe for any hitter.
The results speak for themselves. In 586 plate appearances, Dozier broke out with a .279/.348/.522 slash. His 26 home runs topped any of his minor league season totals, and Dozier kicked in another 29 doubles and a whopping 10 triples. That last number is surprising, especially for a player who only swiped two bases, but Dozier actually ranks in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters in terms of average sprint speed.
Defense still seemed to be problematic, though. Despite making strides, his work at third was rated below average, and the Royals eventually began giving Dozier some looks in right field. That sprint speed would certainly play well in the outfield, and scouting reports have long since touted his arm strength. MLB.com regularly put a 55 on his arm, while FanGraphs had a 60 on his arm in his final season of prospect eligibility. If Dozier can get comfortable with his outfield reads and keep hitting, there’s little reason to think he can’t be a solid Major League right fielder. And with Maikel Franco signed over the winter to step in at third base, it seems that right field is indeed Dozier’s most obvious path to at-bats.
Manning center field between Gordon and Dozier will be now-former second baseman Whit Merrifield. The two-time stolen base champ and the hits leader in the American League in both 2018 and 2019, Merrifield broke into the big leagues as a 27-year-old second baseman who was never considered a high-end prospect. The former ninth-round pick was considered more of a potential utility option, but he showed his aptitude for hitting almost immediately.
Merrifield’s speed and bat-to-ball skills were on display almost immediately in the Majors, and by the midway point of the 2017 season it was clear that he was far more than a utility option — lack of fanfare surrounding his arrival in the Majors or not. In his three full MLB seasons, Merrifield has hit .298/.348/.454 with 47 home runs, 116 doubles, 19 triples and 99 stolen bases. And despite having more than 3000 innings of quality glovework at second base under his belt, Merrifield appears to be the Royals’ first answer for the their current center field void.
That’s more a testament to Merrifield’s versatility than anything else. His ability to slide into center field will allow the club a longer look at Nicky Lopez at second base, although Merrifield will surely still see some reps at second base at various points whenever play resumes.
If that experiment doesn’t work, though, it seems likelier that it’ll be due to struggles of Lopez at second base than because of Merrifield’s work in center. Merrifield has already given the Royals more than 1100 innings of roughly average defense across all three outfield spots. Similarly, if Franco proves unable to tap into the potential he once showed, Dozier could either move back to the hot corner or the organization could take a look at Kelvin Gutierrez in a full-time role at third base.
That Dozier and Merrifield could line up in the outfield on a fairly regular basis certainly doesn’t bode well for out-of-options outfielders Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling. Both may have been in line to make the MLB roster out of camp because of that lack of options, but neither has produced in the Majors. Most are aware of Phillips’ highlight-reel arm and penchant for eye-popping assists, but his strikeout levels have been alarming. Starling, a former top 10 pick himself, has yet to deliver on the raw ability that led to that draft status. Both will get some looks in the outfield, and on those days, Dozier and Merrifield can slot back into the infield as needed.
At various points in recent years, the Royals likely envisioned both Dozier and Merrifield holding down key spots in the lineup, but slotting in alongside Gordon in the outfield probably wasn’t the way they had things scripted. The team’s willingness to move players around has panned out in the past, though, and their ability to do so with Merrifield and Dozier could allow them to get a look at several young options around the field.
NL West Notes: Giants, Espinoza, Rockies
Much of the focus on the trade that sent right-hander Mark Melancon from the Giants to the Braves last July has centered on the surprising fact that the Braves were willing to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon in 2020. So much so, it seems, that the return the Giants received is often entirely overlooked. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, however, that the Giants are excited by the potential of righty Tristan Beck — a 23-year-old fourth rounder from the 2018 draft who saw his velocity trend upward during his run in the Arizona Fall League this year. Beck posted an ugly ERA (5.65) but encouraging FIP/xFIP numbers (3.04, 2.89) in eight starts with Atlanta’s Class-A Advanced affiliate. In the same number of innings with the Giants’ High-A club, Beck’s ERA dropped to 2.27 as he maintained sharp K/9 and BB/9 marks that carried into the fall league. Baseball America ranked Beck 14th among Giants prospects and called him a potential fourth starter, noting that his new organization’s decision to shift his four-seam focus to the top of the zone has improved his overall effectiveness.
A bit more from the division…
- Padres prospect Anderson Espinoza had been eyeing a summer return from last April’s Tommy John surgery, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest reader mailbag. His timeline is now TBD, and the leaguewide stoppage has created the risk that he’ll miss an incredible fourth straight season of games. Still just 22 years of age, Espinoza was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms when the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in return for a year and a half of Drew Pomeranz. But he’s twice undergone Tommy John surgery — most recently late last April — and now represents something of a wild card in a deep Padres farm system. His last appearance in a minor league game came back on Aug. 31, 2016.
- Although no one quite knows what the draft will look like, Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt is confident that his club is prepared and ready whenever the date does roll around, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. Rox scout Jay Matthews expressed to Newman that the ability to connect with players will be all the more crucial this year, as nondrafted players will be capped at just $20K signing bonuses. “Since we’re all going to be under the same money figure for free agents, it’s going to come down to relationships that the area scouts have established with the prospects,” said Matthews, likening this year’s atypical signing process for undrafted players to the college recruiting process. Newman points out that the Rockies have trended toward college players in recent drafts, with a particular emphasis on pitching. Colorado will have three of the first 46 picks in the draft — whatever form it takes.
Derek Jeter Forgoing Salary Indefinitely; Other Marlins Execs Taking Pay Cuts
Marlins CEO Derek Jeter is forgoing his salary on an indefinite basis, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (on Twitter). Other high-ranking Marlins executives have also taken pay cuts as the organization continues to evaluate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additional cost-cutting measures that the Marlins’ executive and ownership club may take aren’t clear, but the cuts among some of the team’s brass will surely aid in avoiding layoffs and furloughs elsewhere in the organization. The news comes at a time when Major League Baseball is reportedly set to announce that clubs can begin to furlough or cut pay of non-playing personnel (e.g. coaches, scouts, executives). In late March, all 30 teams agreed to pay non-player employees through the end of April. MLB teams have also pledged $1MM apiece to help cover lost wages for gameday/park employees during the shutdown. Some teams have taken further steps to help cover those part-time wages.
The impact that pay reduction among club leadership will have throughout the organization can’t yet be known, but it’s nevertheless a notable gesture. It’s easy to cynically say that Jeter can afford to do so — indeed, he earned more than $265MM in player salaries during his career and was able to purchase a minority stake in the Miami franchise — but that much is true of many owners and high-ranking executives who have not opted to do so (both in and outside of baseball).
It’s of course possible that other clubs have already taken similar measures — top Rangers execs were reported to be taking cuts earlier this month — or that they’re prepping to do so in the near future. But it also seems inevitable that the economic weight of the pandemic will be felt throughout the league as uncertainty regarding the state of play persists.
2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfielders
In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen and center fielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: corner outfielders (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).
Top of the Class
- Mookie Betts (28): Betts is the standout among not only at his position but on the entire free-agent market. He’s been worth at least six wins above replacement (bWAR) in each of the past five years while averaging 149 games played and 683 plate appearances. The revenue loss in 2020 could impact the extent of the bidding war that emerges for Betts, who might’ve otherwise been in line to command the largest free-agent contract in history. He’ll receive a qualifying offer.
Potential Regulars (based on 2019 playing time)
- George Springer (31): We listed Springer as the top of the class in center field, but a club with a strong center fielder could certainly sign Springer and plug him into right field. Since his MLB debut in 2014, Springer has been at least 26 percent better than the league-average hitter in all but the 2018 season, by measure of wRC+. That year, he was a “mere” 18 percent better. Despite being limited to 122 games last year, he connected on 39 Springer Dingers. A qualifying offer is a given.
- Nick Castellanos (29): Castellanos landed a four-year, $64MM deal that allows him to opt out after each season. That may not happen on the heels of a shortened or canceled season, but if we see some games and an approximation of the outrageous .321/.356/.646 pace he showed in two months with the Cubs, Castellanos could look for a longer deal — especially given his relative youth. He’d surely receive a qualifying offer if things got to that point.
- Marcell Ozuna (30): Ozuna had multi-year offers in free agency but bet on himself with a big one-year pact in Atlanta. He has one elite offensive season in a track record that is otherwise filled with solid, above-average campaigns. He can’t receive another qualifying offer
- Michael Brantley (34): Brantley has been among the league’s toughest strikeouts for the better part of a decade, and only two qualified hitters posted lower strikeout rates last year. He also hit .311/.372/.503 — his fifth straight season of at least a .299 average and .357 OBP (excluding 2016, when he was limited to 11 games by a shoulder operation). When he’s healthy, “Dr. Smooth” is a flat-out hitting machine.
- Joc Pederson (29): Pederson a career .188/.263/.310 slash against lefties five-plus years into what has been a somewhat strange tenure with the Dodgers. But Pederson is young, plays good defense and obliterates right-handed pitching — and he’s still only had 375 plate appearances against southpaws due to L.A.’s heavy use of platoons. He probably won’t ever be a great hitter against lefties, but he might be better than he’s been given the chance to show. Even if not, Pederson can still rake as the large half of a platoon.
- Alex Gordon (37): It’ll surely be “Royals or retire” again for the Kansas City icon.
- Josh Reddick (34): Reddick still plays a solid right field, and he’s hit lefties better over the past three seasons. His bat has been a bit below average over the past two years on the whole, but he could be an affordable short-term option.
- Ryan Braun (36): Braun’s $15MM mutual option will likely be bought out ($4MM), but the slugger still showed that he can hit in 2019: .282/.343/.505. Braun has averaged only 460 PAs per year dating back to 2017 and has been tried out a bit at first base.
- Robbie Grossman (31): The A’s gave Grossman a career-high 482 PAs last year, but his production dipped. After three above-average seasons, he hit .240/.334/.348. The switch-hitter is a walk machine (career 12.7%) who has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.
Versatile Infielder/Outfielders
- Marwin Gonzalez (32): The ultra-versatile Gonzalez can play all four infield spots and both outfield corners. He signed later in Spring Training last year but after shaking off some rust through the first two weeks of the regular season, he slashed .274/.331/.435 through his final 103 games (426 PAs)
- Brad Miller (31): Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
- Leury Garcia (30): Garcia saw a career-high 618 PAs last year and hit .279/.310/.378. He doesn’t walk much, but Garcia has hit .270 or better in three straight seasons while adding some value on the bases and playing six positions (all three outfield spots, second base, third base, shortstop).
Part-Time Lefty Bats
- Jay Bruce (34): Bruce hit lefties better than righties in a small sample last year, but platoon issues have been a theme for much of his career. The power is still huge (26 homers, .306 ISO, 333 PAs in 2019), but Bruce’s days as a regular might be behind him.
- Matt Joyce (36): Platoon issues notwithstanding, Joyce is a strong source of OBP thanks to an always-strong walk rate that has ticked up to 15 percent over the past four years.
- Nick Markakis (37): An increasingly crowded outfield should limit Markakis’ time if play is able to resume in 2020. He keeps on hitting righties and is lauded as a clubhouse leader, but Markakis is a .265/.319/.363 hitter against lefties over the past five seasons.
Part-Time Righty Bats
- Yoenis Cespedes (35): Cespedes hasn’t topped 81 games since 2016 and didn’t play at all in 2019. Everyone know how good he can be when he’s healthy, but who knows whether we’ll ever see that version of “La Potencia” again?
- Steven Souza Jr. (32): Souza’s entire 2019 season was wiped out by a catastrophic spring knee injury. He has a recent 30-homer season on his resume, but the stoppage of play in 2020 isn’t doing him any favors in terms of reestablishing himself.
- Hunter Pence (38): Pence posted a monster half season with the Rangers last year and returned to the Giants on a one-year deal, so he’ll see some outfield work if play picks back up. By the time 2021 rolls around, DH at-bats like the ones he saw in Texas might be more crucial.
Club Options to Watch
- Brett Gardner ($10MM option w/ $2.5MM buyout) and Adam Eaton ($10.5MM option w/ $1.5MM buyout) are both plenty productive veterans. If either of these options is bought out, it seems likely to be due to a dip in production that calls into question their status as a regular.
Obligatory Mention
- Giancarlo Stanton will be able to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM on his contract, but that seemed like a far-fetched concept even before a February calf injury left him questionable for the previously scheduled opener. The slugger isn’t getting that kind of coin in free agency, but perhaps the extended downtime will help him to heal up and avoid the IL in the future.
2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Designated Hitters
In looking ahead to next winter’s crop of free agents, we’ve already profiled the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen and center fielders who figure to be available (barring extensions between the time the transaction freeze is lifted and the free-agent market opens).
Next year’s market is a bit unique in that it features a few more pure designated hitters than one might expect to find in a given offseason. While it’s true that any player can function as a DH and that some teams prefer not to dedicate just one slugger to that DH position, most of the players in this bucket will only be considered by American League clubs that have ample DH opportunities available. Since there aren’t many on the list, I won’t bother breaking them down into tiers…
- Nelson Cruz: The Boomstick will turn 41 in July of 2021, but he remains one of MLB’s most potent hitters. His 2019 season in Minnesota featured a .311/.392/.639 slash with 41 big flies and 26 doubles. Cruz has played all of nine games in the outfield since the conclusion of the 2016 season and didn’t play so much as an inning of defense with the Twins last year. He and the Twins had reportedly talked about a new deal prior to the transaction freeze, so it’s possible they’ll tack on another year to his time with the “Bomba Squad.”
- J.D. Martinez: JDM chose not to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his Red Sox deal at the beginning of this past offseason, but he has another opt out this winter. With two years and $38.75MM left on the deal, a return to the open market seems more plausible this time around — assuming some form of season is played. Martinez has hit .317/.392/.593 with 79 homers, 70 doubles and four triples in two years with Boston, where he’s made 200 appearances as DH. He’ll be 33 in 2021.
- Edwin Encarnacion: The White Sox hold a $12MM option ($2MM buyout) on the 37-year-old slugger, so like Martinez, he might not actually reach the market. Encarnacion has belted at least 34 home runs in each season since 2012, but he hasn’t logged even a half season’s worth of innings at first base since 2014. He’ll split time with Jose Abreu between first and DH with the ChiSox, but it’s highly unlikely that any team would sign Encarnacion as a full-time first baseman heading into what would be his age-38 season.
- Shin-Soo Choo: In fairness to Choo, he split his time between DH and the outfield corners pretty evenly last year … but the results weren’t pretty. Choo’s -17 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.1 UZR/150 and -12 Outs Above Average were among the worst marks for any outfielder in the game. He’ll turn 39 in July of 2021, and there’s little reason to expect a late renaissance with the glove. Choo is still an OBP-machine with some pop in his bat, though; last year he batted .265/.371/.455 with 24 dingers, and he even swiped 15 bases as well.
- Hunter Pence: An NL team did sign Pence, so perhaps he’s not quite restricted to DH work, but Pence is a clear bat-first player at this point. The Rangers game him 46 starts at DH — hence Choo playing in the outfield as much as he did — and it probably would’ve been more were they not rotating the two veteran sluggers. A resurgent Pence slashed .297/.358/.552 and smacked 18 dingers in 316 plate appearances last year after reworking his swing in the Dominican Winter League. If he hits again in 2019, someone will have interest in adding that bat and that personality to the roster. He’ll turn 38 next April.
You could certainly argue others have a place on this list — someone might roll the dice on a 35-year-old Yoenis Cespedes or a 34-year-old Jay Bruce in this role — but this quintet’s 2019 production and general track record make them the likeliest DH targets for clubs seeking a short-term jolt in the lineup.