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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years.  This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter.  To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort.  So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.  The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level.  A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything.  Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it.  Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room.  To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:

  • Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
  • Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals.  One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
  • Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (11)

  • Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
  • Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
  • Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
  • Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
  • Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
  • Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
  • Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
  • Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
  • Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM /  $1.0MM
  • Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM

Astros (3)

  • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
  • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
  • Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
  • Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
  • Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
  • Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
  • Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
  • Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
  • Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
  • Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K

Blue Jays (3)

  • A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
  • Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
  • Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM

Braves (8)

  • Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
  • Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
  • Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
  • A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
  • Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

Brewers (10)

  • Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
  • Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
  • Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
  • Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

Cardinals (6)

  • Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
  • John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
  • John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
  • Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM

Cubs (12)

  • Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
  • Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
  • Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
  • Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
  • Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
  • Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM /  $1.0MM
  • Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
  • Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM /  $7.9MM
  • Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM /  $1.1MM
  • Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (5)

  • Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
  • Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM /  $2.8MM
  • Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM /  $1.3MM
  • Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM /  $1.3MM
  • Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
  • Walker Buehler – $2.3MM /  $3.1MM / $2.3MM
  • Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM /  $900K
  • Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
  • Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM

Giants (9)

  • Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM /  $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
  • Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM

Indians (7)

  • Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
  • Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
  • Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
  • Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

Mariners (3)

  • J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
  • Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM

Marlins (9)

  • Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM /  $6.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
  • Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
  • Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
  • Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
  • Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM

Mets (13)

  • Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
  • Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
  • J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
  • Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
  • Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
  • Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
  • Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
  • Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
  • Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
  • Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K

Nationals (3)

  • Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
  • Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM

Orioles (6)

  • Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
  • Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
  • Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
  • Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
  • Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
  • Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM

Padres (8)

  • Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
  • Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
  • Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
  • Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM

Phillies (6)

  • Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
  • Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
  • Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
  • Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
  • Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM

Pirates (15)

  • Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
  • Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
  • Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
  • Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
  • Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
  • Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
  • Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Chris Stratton – $800K /  $1.2MM / $800K
  • Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
  • Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM

Rangers (4)

  • Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
  • Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
  • Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM

Rays (8)

  • Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
  • Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
  • Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
  • Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
  • Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
  • Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
  • Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM

Red Sox (7)

  • Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
  • Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
  • Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
  • Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K

Reds (9)

  • Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
  • Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
  • Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
  • Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
  • Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
  • Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
  • Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM

Rockies (13)

  • Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
  • Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
  • Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
  • Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
  • Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
  • Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
  • Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
  • Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
  • Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
  • Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM

Royals (9)

  • Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
  • Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
  • Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
  • Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
  • Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
  • Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
  • Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K

Tigers (9)

  • Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
  • Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
  • Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
  • Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
  • Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
  • Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM

Twins (7)

  • Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
  • Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
  • Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
  • Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
  • Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
  • Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM

White Sox (7)

  • Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM

Yankees (11)

  • Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
  • Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
  • Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
  • Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
  • Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
  • Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
  • Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
  • Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM

The Looming Arbitration Battle

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The pandemic has had a massive effect on MLB team revenues, which most expect to translate to a frigid free agent market.  More quietly, a related battle looms: salary arbitration.

The first marker will be Wednesday, December 2nd.  That’s when teams must decide whether to tender a contract to their arbitration-eligible players, often known as the non-tender deadline.  Players with at least three years of MLB service but less than six – as well as a group of Super Two players – are eligible for arbitration, which is the established system in which teams and agents use comparable players to determine salaries.  Every year, certain players meeting the criteria for arbitration eligibility are simply cut loose, or non-tendered, by teams that feel they’re not worth the salary that would come out of the system.  Last winter, non-tenders included Kevin Gausman, C.J. Cron, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Yimi Garcia, Taijuan Walker, and Kevin Pillar.

This winter those within the game expect a record number of non-tenders, as teams seek opportunities to slash payroll.  The result is that the free agent market will be flooded with players, driving salaries down for everyone.  Players, agents, and clubs expect this, creating pressure to consider “pre-tender” deals.  Pre-tenders are contracts signed prior to the December 2nd deadline, often at a discounted rate due to the threat of a non-tender.  Pre-tender deals exist somewhat outside of the arbitration grid, meaning they are not used for salary comparisons in the event of a hearing.

It’s also worth considering that players that are tendered contracts on December 2nd and will be the best and most valuable ones.  Teams generally don’t relish the idea of forcing their franchise players into hearings, so the balance of power may swing back toward the players to a degree.

Arbitration eligible players who do not sign contracts prior to December 2nd but are tendered a contract will enter uncharted waters.  That is, how should a 60-game season be treated?  The team side could argue that Cody Bellinger’s raw numbers –  12 home runs and 30 RBI – should determine his salary.  Bellinger’s agent could choose to extrapolate: his numbers should be treated as 32 home runs and 81 RBI, which he projected to do over a full season.  Or, a simpler pitch to an arbitration panel would be the idea that “a full season is a full season,” and the exact number of games is irrelevant in the face of more prominent themes of role, health, and performance.  In an arbitration hearing, the narrative each side presents is an important element.

It’s possible a solution lies somewhere in the middle, though I’d argue not exactly at the midpoint – it’s not as if Albert Almora hitting 12 home runs in all of 2019 is comparable to Bellinger doing so in 56 games.  In our forthcoming arbitration projections, we plan to present multiple numbers, including a calculation that determines the player’s full raise and takes 37% of that, since 37% of a season was played.  For players eligible for arbitration for the first time, their entire body of work is considered.  For everyone else, there’s a philosophical divide in which teams focus on an appropriate “raise” amount while agents tend to hone in on their favored specific salary.

It could be argued that second, third, and fourth time arbitration eligible players already fell well short of earning the salaries warranted by their 2019 production.  Bellinger was slated to earn $11.5MM in 2020 in large part due to his 2019 MVP season, but instead received about $4.26MM.  Arbitration, after all, is a backward-looking system where you get paid for past production.

No one actually knows where arbitration salaries will fall on the spectrum from raw to extrapolated 2020 numbers.  Considering the philosophical differences at hand, both sides carry significant risk of getting entrenched in their positions and pushing the entire market into hearings. For players, the risk is obvious – millions of dollars.  Teams with large arbitration classes could have quite a bit of money hanging in the balance, impacting their approach toward free agency.  In a hearing, a three-person panel hears from both sides and picks a winner – they don’t meet in the middle.  There’s a good chance we’ll see a record number of hearings, so teams and agencies will be taxed in trying to prepare.  While there’s always pressure on both sides to hold the line, it’s generally easier on the team side, since there’s only 30 clubs and they can work together.  The players’ union naturally has a harder time getting agents to act as a cohesive unit.

The March agreement set forth that these arbitration salaries won’t be considered precedent.  But while salaries this year will not directly impact future classes, the deals may have a compounding effect on this particular class as they move through the arbitration system.  It’s unlikely MLB would agree to disregard 2021 salaries when considering what a player should earn in 2022, 2023, and 2024.  That calls back to my point about the philosophical divide between raises and salary.

There’s also a larger backdrop to consider: how will the 2021 season shake out?  When President Trump declared a national emergency in March, that gave MLB commissioner Rob Manfred the authority to suspend contracts in 2020, creating a scenario for a broad negotiation on the 2020 season.  It seems plausible that with gate revenue far from certain for 2021, teams would seek to do something less than a full-salary 162-game regular season. As Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal wrote in September after interviewing the commissioner, “Manfred described the idea of playing 162 games next year without fans as ’economically devastating,’ adding that the losses ’would be a multiple’ of the $3 billion from this season.”  It is unclear if MLB will have standing to negotiate a shorter season without a similar declaration of national emergency leading up to the 2021 season.

2020 brought months of fighting and a season like no other, and we’re set up for more of the same this offseason.

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Support MLBTR’s Trade Deadline Coverage

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The trade deadline is always one of the busiest, most exciting days of the year at MLBTR.  We’ve had our team working hard to provide comprehensive coverage, as we have every year since 2006.

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Cubs Acquire Cameron Maybin

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The Cubs have acquired outfielder Cameron Maybin from the Tigers, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  The Cubs will send infielder Zack Short to the Tigers in return, according to Chris McCosky of The Detroit News.

Maybin, 33, has been about league average in his brief 45 plate appearances for the Tigers this year after signing as a free agent in February.  He missed time early in the month with a quad strain.  The Tigers’ 10th overall pick way back in 2005, Maybin has created value in a utility role in recent years.  He posted a 127 wRC+ for the Yankees in 2019, and is able to handle all three outfield positions.  A 14-year veteran, Maybin is owed about $225K on the season.

Maybin is the Cubs’ second bench bat addition in two days, as they picked up Jose Martinez from the Rays yesterday.  The Cubs’ depth was a bit compromised with Steven Souza Jr. on the IL for a hamstring strain and Kris Bryant out with a sprained finger and sore wrist.  The first-place Cubs have been otherwise focused on the bullpen today, adding lefties Andrew Chafin and Josh Osich in trades.

Short, 25, reached Triple-A in 2019 as a middle infielder.  Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Short 28th among Cubs prospects, citing “a consistent blend of strong defensive skills and sneaky impact at the plate.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Acquire Jonathan Villar

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The Blue Jays have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  Villar was pulled from this afternoon’s game against the Mets at Citi Field.  In return, the Marlins will receive right fielder Griffin Conine from Toronto, according to Craig Mish.  Given that Conine is not part of the Jays’ 60-man player pool, he’s considered a player to be named later in this deal, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  The move comes on the heels of the Marlins acquiring Starling Marte from the Diamondbacks as the Miami club attempts to return to the playoffs for the first time since their 2003 championship.

Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette was placed on the IL on August 16th with a knee sprain, which is expected to keep him out until at least mid-September.  Rosenthal had previously reported the Jays’ interest in the versatile Villar, and Toronto was also said to have checked in on the Angels’ Andrelton Simmons.  The Blue Jays have already stocked up with trades for Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Dan Vogelbach.  Should Bichette return within a few weeks, Villar can help out around the diamond.

Villar, 29, had an excellent 2019 season for the Orioles.  But with the infielder headed for an $8.2MM salary through arbitration (of which about $1.2MM is still owed this season), the O’s saw fit to ship him to Miami in a December trade.  Due to the shortened season, Villar wound up playing just 29 games for the Marlins.  According to Craig Mish, the Marlins “felt Villar is still an extremely talented player but played reckless at times, and never fully bought in to what they are trying to do.”  According to Mish, Villar was expendable due to Isan Diaz’s return to the club.  Diaz had opted out and is awaiting approval on returning, according to Rosenthal.

The speedy Villar has a few above-average offensive seasons on his record, most recently with a 107 wRC+ last year.  He’s generally not been lauded for his infield defense, however.  He’ll be eligible for free agency after the season, with the Jays serving as his fifth organization.

Griffin Conine, the son of Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine, chose not to sign after the Marlins drafted him in the 31st round out of high school.  He then went to Duke and was drafted by the Jays in the second round, most recently playing A ball in the Midwest League.  Part of the Jays’ run on sons of popular Major Leaguers, Conine was ranked as the club’s #15 prospect prior to the 2019 season by Baseball America.  BA praised his plus power and arm, though Conine did serve a 50-game suspension for testing positive for ritalinic acid.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays To Acquire Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have acquired lefty Robbie Ray from the Diamondbacks, tweets Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun.  The D’Backs will receive southpaw Travis Bergen in return, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.  Arizona will also be sending over $300K in cash, according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.  Ray has approximately $1.42MM left on his contract this year.

Ray, 29 in October, has pitched the vast majority of his career for Arizona after they acquired him in a December 2014 three-team trade.  He’s long been one of the game’s top strikeout pitchers, with an 11.9 K/9 mark that ranks third in MLB for qualified starters from 2016-19.  Never known for his control, walks have become problematic at times for Ray.  The issue has been particularly bad in this brief 2020 season, as Ray has issued free passes to more than a fifth of the batters he’s faced, easily the highest rate in MLB this year.  The result has been an unsightly 7.84 ERA, through seven starts, well out of line with his career work.  Ray will be eligible for free agency after the season, and in light of his performance this year, it’s unlikely the Diamondbacks would have been willing to issue a qualifying offer.

At present, the 18-14 Blue Jays are in line to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016.  Ray marks the second addition to Toronto’s rotation in five days, as Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager Ross Atkins added Taijuan Walker from the Mariners last Thursday.  Atkins has assembled a veteran group, which also includes offseason pickups Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson.  Matt Shoemaker went down last week due to a lat strain, while uber-prospect Nate Pearson went on the shelf on August 19th for a flexor strain.  That pair hopes to return this year, while Trent Thornton is out for the season with an elbow injury.  The club will hope pitching coach Pete Walker can diagnose Rays’ control issues and help him bounce back over the season’s final month.

Today will mark the third time in Ray’s career he’s received that life-changing phone call from his GM informing him of a trade.  After being drafted by the Nationals in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Doug Fister from the Tigers to the Nats in 2013.  Just a year later, Ray landed with the Diamondbacks in a deal that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees and Shane Greene to the Tigers.  Ray blossomed into a fine pitcher for the D’Backs, putting together four separate seasons of at least 2.3 WAR and snagging an All-Star nod and seventh-place Cy Young finish in 2017.  By the 2018-19 offseason, Ray was a regular on the rumor circuit, but Executive Vice President & General Manager Mike Hazen didn’t pull the trigger until today, with most of the lefty’s trade value lost.

Bergen, 27 in October, was drafted by the Jays in the seventh round in 2015 out of Kennesaw State and has been used mostly in relief in his pro career.  Though the Giants picked up Bergen in the 2018 Rule 5 draft, they wound up designating him for assignment and returning him in August of last year after he returned from an IL stint for a shoulder injury.  His fastball ticked up to 93.7 mph this year for the Jays, more than three miles per hour than he showed in his rookie campaign.  But with all due respect to Bergen, it would appear this trade was mainly about salary relief from Arizona’s standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Lance Lynn Trade Talks

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The Rangers have already shipped out starter Mike Minor to the A’s, so now all eyes are on righty Lance Lynn.  The 33-year-old righty sports a 3.33 ERA in 41 starts for the Rangers since they signed him prior to the 2019 season, and he’s under contract for just $8MM in 2021.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Rangers may be motivated to avoid repeating the mistake they made with Minor, holding him last summer when he was at peak value with control remaining.

  • The Braves, who picked up lefty Tommy Milone in a deal with the Orioles yesterday, have been in contact with the Rangers regarding Lynn within the last 48 hours, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
  • The Yankees have also been involved in Lynn’s market during that time, tweets Morosi.  Lynn’s resurgence began with his two-month stint with the Yankees back in 2018.  MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan notes that the Rangers “would love RHP Deivi Garcia from the Yankees but he is likely out of reach.”  On a similar note, Sherman hears the Yankees don’t have an appetite to move Garcia, to date.
  • The Padres “explored separate trades” with the Rangers for Lynn and outfielder Joey Gallo before acquiring Mike Clevinger from the Indians, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  I would speculate that with Clevinger tow, it’s (relatively) safe to assume the Padres are out on Lynn.  Similarly, the A’s were previously connected to Lynn but have since landed Minor.
  • Previous connections to Lynn have been made for the Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox, so those teams may still be in play.  According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, the Jays had been linked to Minor before he was dealt to Oakland, and the Rangers “are intrigued by [the] Jays’ young catching.”

Nationals “Looking To Buy”

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The Nationals are “looking to buy today,” hears The Athletic’s Jayson Stark from teams that have talked to the Washington ballclub.  This is a bit of an advancement from what we heard on Saturday from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who said, “If they do anything, it’ll be buy.”  The Nats are three games out from second place in the NL East, currently their easiest path to the playoffs.

In an article Thursday, MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato suggested a multi-inning reliever, ideally with the ability to handle lefties, could be a reasonable target.  GM Mike Rizzo expressed comfort with his starting pitching depth – even sans Stephen Strasburg – on a call with reporters over a week ago, but that hardly rules out the pursuit of a starting pitcher.  Stark speculates that the Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray could be a fit.  Rizzo presided over the Nationals’ drafting of Ray in 2010, an excellent find in the 12th round.

The Nationals recently picked up some infield depth with the recent signing of Brock Holt.  According to Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic, the club may still be seeking a potential bench bat.

Latest On Twins’ Interest In Starting Pitching Market

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The Twins are “working aggressively to trade for a starter today,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  Morosi reiterates their interest in the Angels’ Dylan Bundy and the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, which he has previously reported.  Darren Wolfson of KSTP has a different take, noting the Twins’ existing rotation depth and tendency to “call every team to get a gauge on price points.”

The Twins have been working with Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Rich Hill, and Randy Dobnak in the rotation, and they’ll add Michael Pineda tomorrow as his suspension concludes.  Jake Odorizzi is working his way back from an abdominal bruise, while Homer Bailey’s biceps tendinitis makes him more of a question mark.  Wolfson’s point: this is not a team in desperate need of starting pitching.

Lynn, 33, figures to be one of the day’s hottest commodities.  The 12-21 Rangers are one of perhaps seven obvious sellers, and Lynn has been excellent since signing a three-year deal with Texas in December 2018.  He’s owed about $1.5MM for the remainder of the season, plus an affordable $8MM salary for 2021.  The Angels are in a similar spot with Bundy, a 27-year-old for whom things seem to be clicking after seven starts.

It’s worth noting that Lynn made 20 starts for the Twins in 2018 before being traded to the Yankees, at which point his resurgence began.  After that season, the Twins hired Wes Johnson as their pitching coach.  It’s not clear how the organization’s familiarity with Lynn affects their interest.  If the Twins do push for a starter today, their efforts will likely be muddied by the division-rival White Sox, who have also been connected to both Lynn and Bundy.

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