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Bryce Harper Removed From Game Due To Back Tightness

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TODAY: Harper left the game due to tightness in his lower back.  Girardi told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other reporters that Harper might not play in today’s game, though Harper’s recurring back issues aren’t thought to be a long-term issue.  “I think he’ll be a player for us on Friday,” Girardi said, referring to Philadelphia’s next game.

JUNE 15: Phillies star right fielder Bryce Harper was removed from tonight’s game against the Dodgers in the fourth inning, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic.  “Looks like he hurt his back on a swing,” according to Gelb.

Harper was day-to-day with lower back tightness at one point in mid-April, but only took one day off for the issue.  He suffered a terrifying injury later that month, taking a Genesis Cabrera fastball to his left cheek.  He actually avoided the IL immediately after that one, dealing with various nagging injuries until the Phillies put him on the shelf for a left forearm contusion in late May.  Phils manager Joe Girardi wasn’t particularly forthcoming during that period, so who knows what we’ll get on the latest Harper injury.  The Phillies, 4.5 games back in both the NL East and the Wild Card at the time of this writing, can’t afford an extended absence from Harper.

Meanwhile, we learned today that Phillies shortstop Didi Gregorius has been slow to recover from an elbow injury due to something called “pseudogout.”  According to the Mayo Clinic, pseudogout is “a form of arthritis characterized by sudden, painful swelling in one or more of your joints.”  Gregorius last played for the Phillies on May 12th.

Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?

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When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years.  However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.

Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March.  The other $5MM will be paid next month.  Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year.  Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:

Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40

In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again.  And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest.  Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.

Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout.  Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23.  Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice.  As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract.  The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.

Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21.  After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%.  If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again.  But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers.  On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.”  Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.

Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.  In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph.  There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak.  But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.

All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date.  That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact.  It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop.  It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.  It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown.  Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.  He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow’s comments.

If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years.  If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it.  For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed.  So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.

When will Trevor Bauer hit free agency next?
He'll opt out after the 2022 season. 52.50% (4,502 votes)
He'll play out his three-year deal and hit the market after '23. 31.34% (2,688 votes)
He'll opt out after the 2021 season. 16.16% (1,386 votes)
Total Votes: 8,576

Braves’ Tucker Davidson Headed To IL With Forearm Strain

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Braves lefty Tucker Davidson left his start tonight against the Red Sox after 53 pitches due to a forearm strain, and he’s headed to the IL according to David O’Brien of The Athletic.  On a positive note, O’Brien says Davidson “tested well after coming out of the game” – ultimately a 10-8 loss for Atlanta.

Davidson, 25, made just the fifth appearance of his MLB career tonight.  His first three starts this year went quite well, with only three earned runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings.  Davidson opened the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, but got the call when Max Fried hit the IL for a hamstring injury.  He was sent back down without appearing in a game, but jumped into the Braves’ rotation in mid-May after Huascar Ynoa fractured his hand punching the dugout bench.  Davidson was optioned again despite pitching well in that May 18th start, but was the Braves’ choice when they needed a June 3rd spot start against the Nationals after several rainouts.

Prior to the season, Baseball America pegged Davidson as a 50-grade prospect despite some scouts’ belief that he profiles as a reliever in the Majors.  Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, currently working at Triple-A, could be options to replace Davidson.  The Braves also added veteran Tanner Roark in May, though he’s been working out of the bullpen for the Stripers.

Kris Bryant Exits Game After Being Hit On Hand By Pitch

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9:23pm: X-rays were negative on Bryant’s bruised right hand, Cubs manager David Ross told the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro and other reporters.  Bryant is a question mark for Wednesday.

6:56pm: Cubs star Kris Bryant exited tonight’s game against the Mets after being hit on the hand by a Taijuan Walker pitch in the first inning, according to reporters.  Patrick Wisdom took his place at third base.  ESPN’s Marly Rivera adds a few details.  At present, the Cubs are describing the injury as a right hand contusion.  We’ll update this post with further information on Bryant’s status when it becomes available.

Bryant, 29, ranks 12th in MLB with a 150 wRC+, though he’s slumped in the past few weeks.  He’s logged at least 60 defensive innings at every outfield position, as well as the infield corners.  It’s been a strong comeback season for Bryant thus far, and his stellar play is one reason the Cubs entered play tonight in a first-place tie with the Brewers.  Given the Cubs’ estimated 43% chance at the playoffs, GM Jed Hoyer will have a hard time trading Bryant before the July 30th deadline – despite the slugger’s pending free agency.

If you’re thinking MLB hitters are being hit by pitches more than ever lately, you’re right.  Dating back to 1920, batters were never hit more frequently than they were in 2020: once per every 81 plate appearances.  But the 2021 season, which has already gone on longer than the COVID-shortened campaign, is challenging that record at once per every 86 or so.  We should see soon whether MLB’s enforcement of its foreign substances rule further increases HBPs, but the fact is they were already at an all-time high.

Dodgers Place Cody Bellinger On IL

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The Dodgers placed center fielder Cody Bellinger on the IL for left hamstring tightness and recalled Mitch White, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio was among those to report.  The timing of the injury is unfortunate, as tonight is the first full-capacity game at Dodger Stadium since before the pandemic.  Bellinger is eligible to be activated on June 22nd, notes Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.

Bellinger returned from a lengthy IL stint on May 29th after recovering from a hairline fracture in his left fibula.  Now, he’s back to the IL due to a hamstring injury, which first cropped up last Friday.  The Dodgers will again make do without the 2019 NL MVP.  This year, that’s generally meant Chris Taylor and Mookie Betts in center field.  With Max Muncy hitting the IL on Saturday, the Dodgers’ current first base tandem is Matt Beaty and Albert Pujols.  In his 66 plate appearances with the Dodgers, Pujols has a 131 wRC+.  The Dodgers are also without star shortstop Corey Seager, who might return early next month from a broken hand.

In recalling White, the Dodgers have gone to a nine-man bullpen after yesterday’s short start from Tony Gonsolin.

Glasnow: Enforcing Sticky Stuff Rule Midseason Is “Insane” And Contributed To Injury

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Rays starter Tyler Glasnow hit the IL with a partially torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain today, and he feels that MLB’s decision to finally enforce the foreign substance rules on the books is a contributing factor.  In advance of MLB’s new enforcement policy, Glasnow ceased usage of sunscreen, changing the grips on his fastball and curveball.  Here’s what Glasnow had to say (Bally Sports Florida sideline reporter Tricia Whitaker has the video here):

“Do it in the offseason, give us a chance to adjust to it. But I just threw 80-something, 70-whatever innings, and then you just told me I can’t use anything in the middle of the year? I had to change everything I’d been doing the entire season. Everything, out of the window, I had to start doing something completely new.

And then I’m telling you, I truly believe, that’s why I got hurt. Me throwing 100 and being 6’7″ is why I got hurt, but that contributed. I’m just frustrated that they don’t understand how hard it is to pitch, one, but to tell us to do something completely different in the middle of the season is insane. It’s ridiculous. There has to be some give and take here. You can’t just take away everything and not add something. Pitchers need to be able to have some sort of control or some sort of grip on the ball. And I just don’t want this to happen to somebody else, I don’t want a fastball to sail away and hit somebody in the face like it already has.

I understand you need to take an aggressive approach here, but I just think people are going about it all wrong. And I’m sitting here, my lifelong dream, I want to go out and win a Cy Young, I want to be an All-Star, and then now it’s all just shit on. Now it’s over. I have to try and rehab and come back in the playoffs. I’m clearly frustrated…people need to figure this out. You can’t just tell us to use nothing. It’s crazy.”

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Glasnow’s sentiments are “shared by a lot of people across baseball — and not just players.”  Dodgers righty Trevor Bauer is another pitcher who takes issue with MLB’s timing on the enforcement, tweeting, “They’ve knowingly swept this under the rug for 4 years. Now they implement a knee jerk reaction to shifting public perception. Hard to hear them talk about “competitive integrity” when they have no integrity to begin with.”

The pitchers who have been speaking up recently on this topic have sound points: this issue could have been tackled with care in the offseason, and MLB should have tried to get players on board.  As the Nationals’ Max Scherzer put it, “The players should have a say in this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will. It just appears that MLB is going to do whatever they want with this.”  The use of “sticky stuff” by pitchers has been an unenforced rule for many years, and forcing pitchers to go cold turkey could bring unintended consequences – including injuries.  MLB’s new “enhanced enforcements” go into effect Monday, though some pitchers have clearly been weaning off the sticky stuff this month.

Diamondbacks Select Contract Of Keury Mella

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Righty reliever Keury Mella is returning to the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan.  The club transferred Seth Frankoff to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man spot, while Taylor Clarke hit the 10-day IL to create an active roster opening.  Incredibly, the D’Backs are vying for their first road win since April 25th tonight in San Francisco.

Mella, 27, has logged 27 career innings for the Reds and Diamondbacks.  In his 11 appearances at Triple-A Reno this year, he punched out 24.4% of batters and walked 9.0%.  Mella averaged 95.2 miles per hour last year in the bigs, a bit above the average ’21 reliever figure of 93.8.  Two years ago as a Reds farmhand, Mella was considered to be a 45-grade prospect by Baseball America.  The Reds had acquired Mella and Adam Duvall from the Giants in the 2015 trade deadline trade of Mike Leake.  At the time, Mella was thought to have a plus fastball without a “true offspeed weapon.”  Mella was deemed expendable back in February, as Arizona designated him for assignment and he passed through waivers unclaimed.

As you might expect from the worst team in baseball, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been pretty bad, with a 4.64 ERA.  But still better than three other NL teams!  Mella joins a D’Backs bullpen consisting of Stefan Crichton, Joakim Soria, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Buchter, Humberto Castellanos, Joe Mantiply, Riley Smith, and possibly Corbin Martin at present.  Clarke joins relievers J.B. Bukauskas, Tyler Clippard, Chris Devenski on the IL, with Devenski done for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Latest On Cole Hamels

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18 months ago, Cole Hamels was an $18MM pitcher.  Back in December 2019, the Braves signed the veteran southpaw to a one-year contract, just shy of his 36th birthday.  Atlanta headed into Spring Training with Hamels, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Mike Foltynewicz as rotation locks, with Sean Newcomb, Felix Hernandez, and others competing for the fifth starter job.

2020 did not go as planned for just about anyone, and Cole Hamels was no exception.  He reported to camp with irritation in his left shoulder stemming from an offseason workout.  The expected normal Opening Day was ruled out, and by April 6th Hamels was said to be pain-free, and he was expected to be ready for the “new” Opening Day.  However, triceps tendinitis popped up, and Hamels wouldn’t make his lone Braves start until September 16th.  He returned to the IL with shoulder fatigue after the 52-pitch outing.  The Braves’ contract with Hamels was tied with Marcell Ozuna as the largest one-year deal of the 2019-20 offseason, and the club got nothing to show for it.

So, what’s the word on Hamels?  He’s not anywhere close to contributing to an MLB team, but at least he’s somewhere, throwing a baseball.  According to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, the lefty “continues to throw off a mound and is building up every day but has not scheduled a showcase yet.”  I assume that if Hamels can show MLB teams he still has the ability to throw around 91 miles per hour, interest should be plentiful in a year where pitching depth is especially compromised.  The injuries will only continue to mount over the next few months.

How many current MLB rotation members are older than Cole Hamels?  Just four: Rich Hill,  Adam Wainwright, J.A. Happ, and Zack Greinke.  Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of Hamels, but his 15-year career will probably at least merit a few Hall of Fame votes.

Injury Notes: deGrom, Mondesi, Kim, Rendon, Davidson, Means

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It’s the Year of the Injury, and this post will house many of the evening’s updates on that front.

  • Let’s start off with some good news for everyone except the Cubs: Mets ace Jacob deGrom is set to start tomorrow night.  DeGrom left his start Friday due to right flexor tendinitis, but the MRI came back clean.
  • Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi was reinstated from the IL, with reliever Ronald Bolanos going on it.  Mondesi, who strained his hamstring on May 31st, is active but not in tonight’s lineup.
  • Cardinals lefty Kwang Hyun Kim is also off the IL, and is starting tonight against the Marlins.  Kim had a brief IL stint for lower back soreness.
  • Angels manager Joe Maddon told reporters the injured list has been ruled out for third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s recovering from a mild triceps strain.  Rendon has struggled at the plate this year, with a 90 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances.  By measure of OPS, his .679 mark is the worst single-season 45-game slump of Rendon’s career since his 2013 rookie season.
  • Luis Severino’s rehab start injury Saturday was described as a Grade 2 groin strain by Yankees manager Aaron Boone.  This will set him back about a month, leading to a possible late July/early August return.
  • Braves southpaw Tucker Davidson left tonight’s start after 53 pitches with left forearm tightness, according to the team.  Davidson entered the night unscored-upon in his last 11 2/3 innings, spanning a pair of starts.
  • Orioles ace John Means, pulled from a June 5th start in the first inning, began playing catch for the first time since the injury according to MLB.com’s Joe Trezza.  Means may be able to return by month’s end.  With a 2.28 ERA and a no-hitter on the season, the lefty seems a lock for the All-Star Game.

Pirates Acquire Taylor Davis

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The Orioles acquired minor league outfielder Jose Berroa from the Pirates for catcher Taylor Davis, reported Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com among others.

Davis, 31, picked up 20 games of big league experience with the Cubs from 2017-19.  He signed a minor league deal with the Orioles in January 2020, and played in 12 games for the Norfolk Tides this year.  Davis may not have made much of a big league impact yet, but he did garner fame for “shooting icy stares at the Iowa Cubs’ cameras,” as SI’s Dan Gartland put it in 2017.  Davis will now make the trip to the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate.  The Indianapolis Indians open a six-game set against the Memphis Redbirds tonight.

Berroa, 19, did not fall within FanGraphs’ top 51 Pirates prospects back in February.  He played 56 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2019 and will be assigned to the Orioles’ Florida Complex team in Sarasota.  He was a July 2 signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018.

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