Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Upcoming Changes To MLBTR Commenting Policy

By Tim Dierkes | April 8, 2021 at 1:01pm CDT

My April 6th poll regarding the MLBTR comment section received over 5,800 responses, and the post had over 650 comments. The MLBTR readership is passionate about how we handle commenting on sensitive topics like domestic violence, COVID-19, and politics. The poll results:

67.1% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to domestic violence
63.8% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to COVID-19
56.6% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to politics, such as MLB’s decision to move the All-Star Game out of Georgia
74.4% would like MLBTR to continue attempting to remove comments that are unrelated to the topic of the post
73.0% would use a button that allows you to mute specific commenters

I gave this data a lot of thought, and I also gave consideration to the individual comments left on the post. I’ve gotten emails from people saying that they’re done with MLBTR because we have been closing comments on sensitive topics. I’ve also gotten emails from people saying they will stop visiting MLBTR if we open comments on sensitive topics. I hope people don’t leave. We’re doing the best we can. It’s clear there’s not a solution that will make everyone happy.

After much deliberation, here is what I’ve decided to do. These new policies are subject to change.

We are going to create a mute button. You will be able to easily mute all comments from a specific user, which will include the entirety of a thread started by that person.
We are going to continue closing comments on domestic violence posts. I’m glad two-thirds of respondents agree with that choice. There isn’t really a baseball discussion I want to host on those posts.
We are going to open comments on COVID-19 posts. We started closing these over a year ago, when there was a lot unknown about COVID. At this point, I hope it’s possible to discuss the implications of baseball COVID cases on rosters without debating the disease itself. I don’t see why a baseball website should host political opinions or arguments on COVID. This will be a test to see whether those comment sections can be apolitical.
We are going to open comments in cases where baseball and politics intersect, such as MLB’s decision to move the All-Star Game out of Georgia. This was a difficult decision. My feeling is that each individual already has the ability to “close” comments on a given post, by not clicking to reveal its comments. I lean toward putting the power in the hands of readers: if you feel that the comments on certain posts or topics are not worth reading, you should not read them. And if you do decide to wade into a sensitive topic, that is at your own risk, and you’ll have the ability to mute people you feel are not adding value. You’ll also have the “flag” button for comments that violate our policy, which will be added to the Trade Rumors iOS app soon.
With the above point in mind, I am going to make a few changes to ensure that viewing the comments is an intentional experience. On desktop web as well as the iOS app, rather than have the comments show automatically below the post, we are going to put in a View Comments button, similar to what we’ve long had on mobile web. You will have to purposely click View Comments to see them.

As a reminder, our commenting policy still requires that you avoid the following:

Attacks, insults, or trolling toward other commenters, the MLBTR staff, journalists, team personnel, players, or agents
Otherwise harassing other commenters in any way
Commentary that is unrelated to the subject matter of the post. Take special note of this one. 74% of respondents don’t want off-topic comments, and once comments are open on COVID-19 and political posts, there will be little excuse for that. A post about a Braves IL move is not an opening to discuss the All-Star Game decision; there will be a contained post for that.
Inappropriate language
Inappropriate avatars or images
Spam links or self-promotion
Personal contact information in the comments section

Specifically when it comes to attacks, insults, trolling, and harassment, doing this will still get you banned. It is also important to note that we don’t try to assess who “started it,” and someone else getting away with a violation doesn’t justify yours. We catch as much as we can. If someone trolls or insults you, we ask that you flag their comment and resist the temptation to respond in kind. Once the mute button is available, we will ask that you flag their comment and then mute them.

As I mentioned, this is subject to change. If we find that commenting policy violations increase drastically and/or require a greatly increased amount of moderation time from our staff, we may choose to close comments to better focus on the core aspects of running MLB Trade Rumors.

These policy changes will go into effect when our mute button is rolled out on the website, likely by the end of April. Until then, this policy remains in place. The mute option will not initially be available in the Trade Rumors app, but we’ll get to work on that. Once that’s done I intend to turn our focus to other ways we can improve MLBTR, and I’ll be surveying readers on that topic.

Comment Section Poll

By Tim Dierkes | April 6, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

At a certain point last year, it seemed that the comment section of every post MLBTR wrote involving domestic violence, politics, or COVID-19 devolved into a trainwreck of insults and arguments. Rather than use our employees’ time to moderate the comment section, I decided to close comments entirely on these topics. I didn’t start MLBTR with the goal of hosting or moderating arguments on these topics, but they are inextricably linked with baseball. Judging from the emails I received last week and the comments left on unrelated posts, many MLBTR readers would like a space in our commenting section to discuss MLB’s decision to move the All-Star Game out of Georgia.

I think one potential improvement we can make is to introduce a mute button, giving you the power to mute all the comments and threads by a particular person. I’ve talked to our developers, and this is a feature we can create. We will probably have it ready by the end of the month.

MLB Trade Rumors wouldn’t exist without you, and if the majority of our reader base wants open commenting on sensitive topics, it’s something I have to consider. I’m not sure yet whether it is a majority, but it’s time to find out. Before any decisions are made, I’d like to gather poll data to see specifically what MLBTR readers want. Please take a few minutes and fill out this survey. Click here to view the survey results.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | April 5, 2021 at 3:18pm CDT

The White Sox made a big starting pitching acquisition, signed the best reliever on the market, and went for a modest right field solution.

Major League Signings

Liam Hendriks, RP: three years, $54MM. Includes club option for 2024
Adam Eaton, RF: one year, $7MM
Carlos Rodon, SP: one year, $3MM
Total spend: $64MM

Options Exercised

Leury Garcia, IF: $3.5MM

Trades and Claims

Claimed SP Emilio Vargas off waivers from Diamondbacks; later outrighted to Triple-A
Acquired SP Lance Lynn from Rangers for SP Dane Dunning and SP Avery Weems

Notable Minor League Signings

Billy Hamilton, Jake Lamb, Tim Beckham, Nick Williams, Marco Hernandez

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Dane Dunning, Avery Weems, Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara, James McCann, Yolmer Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Colome, Steve Cishek, Ross Detwiler

The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the firing of manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper. Rather than allow GM Rick Hahn to run a traditional managerial hiring process, White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to put Tony La Russa back in a managerial role for the first time since 2011, despite awareness of the manager’s second DUI having occurred in February 2020. I wrote about the situation at greater length back in November. Though the La Russa hiring brought the White Sox some backlash, it didn’t seem to have much effect on their free agent pursuits. And as of a few weeks ago, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times put it, “Sox players have expressed nothing but acceptance and support for La Russa.”

At the December non-tender deadline, the White Sox made the expected decision to cut Nomar Mazara loose. 2020 marked the third consecutive year in which the White Sox received replacement-level play from their primary right fielder. With free agent options ranging from George Springer to Joc Pederson, the White Sox instead pounced on…Adam Eaton. I thought the club would aim bigger than a reunion with the 32-year-old, whose ceiling would appear to be something around 2 WAR. The White Sox did not seriously engage with Springer, who went to the Blue Jays for six years and $150MM. Pederson, intent on the chance to prove himself against left-handed pitching, landed with the Cubs in January on a contract similar to Eaton’s.

Around the same time as the Eaton signing, the White Sox swung a major trade with the Rangers to acquire Lance Lynn. The price for Lynn’s age-34 season was steep: six years of control of 26-year-old sophomore Dane Dunning, plus a 40-grade prospect in Weems. Dunning was considered a 50-grade prospect before the 2020 season, in which he bolstered his stock with seven solid post-Tommy John surgery starts as an MLB rookie. Lynn is both a better pitcher than Dunning in 2021 and a more reliable one. Lynn led MLB in innings last year, and ranked fifth with 6.46 innings per start. He’s one of the game’s few remaining horses, and the White Sox have him at a below-market $8MM. Lynn fits nicely into the team’s rotation with Dallas Keuchel, behind ace Lucas Giolito.

The White Sox added Giolito’s former high school pitching coach, Ethan Katz, but weren’t successful in locking up the righty to a long-term deal. On March 1st, Giolito said to James Fegan of The Athletic, “There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine. I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.” The White Sox did engage with Giolito at some point after that comment was made, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The White Sox haven’t reached an in-season extension with a player anytime recently, and they may have to try again with Giolito in the spring of 2022, when he’ll have four years of MLB service under his belt. The most recent comparable might be Kyle Hendricks’ March 2019 deal, covering one arbitration year and potentially four free agent seasons for a $55.5MM guarantee. As someone actively involved in the players’ union, Giolito probably isn’t keen on giving much of a discount.

The White Sox would eventually round out their rotation in late January with the signing of Rodon. Having non-tendered him a few months prior, it’s clear that the White Sox wanted to retain their 2019 Opening Day starter only at their price. The White Sox drafted Rodon third overall in 2014. He was in the Majors the following year and peaked with a 2.7 WAR 2016 campaign before injuries set in, culminating with May 2019 Tommy John surgery. Rodon returned last summer to make four appearances, but then got a “wake-up call,” as he described it, when the Sox non-tendered him in December. Having experienced the White Sox throughout their rebuilding phase, he didn’t want to miss out now that they’re a contender. After an impressive spring training, I’m intrigued to see what a second act might look like for the 28-year-old lefty.

In addition to Lynn, Chicago’s other major strike of the offseason was the signing of the best reliever on the market, Liam Hendriks. As a 32-year-old, Hendriks wasn’t going to get the five-year contract standards set by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Hendriks (or his agent) was instead seemingly intent on setting an average annual value record for relievers. That’s how we wound up with a contract structure I’d never seen before, a three-year $54MM deal that includes a fourth-year club option in which the buyout value of $15MM matches the option price. So Hendriks is getting $54MM no matter what, but with the fourth year not technically guaranteed, the AAV is $18MM. So why wouldn’t the White Sox pick up the 2024 option? If it’s declined, the buyout is paid in ten annual installments, so there’s a modest benefit to the club in the event Hendriks is completely undesirable for ’24 whether due to injury or poor performance.

Unique contract structure aside, the White Sox landed a lockdown stopper who put up a 1.79 ERA, 38 K%, and 5.7 BB% from 2019-20 over 110 1/3 innings. He led all traditional relievers in innings over that period and has proven himself capable of going more than one inning. Relievers are a fickle bunch, but it looks like the White Sox acquired a relief ace they can lean on heavily in the postseason. Hahn has put together a flamethrowing bullpen. Four of their current relievers – Codi Heuer, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Jose Ruiz – actually throw harder than Hendriks’ 96.3 mile per hour average fastball. It’s also a largely untested bullpen behind Hendriks, with four current members who have yet to reach 31 career innings.

Though not exactly part of their offseason, March saw a couple of major, related developments for the White Sox. Eloy Jimenez ruptured his left pectoral tendon during a spring training game, requiring surgery with a 4-5 month recovery timeline. A few days later the club selected the contract of 2019 first rounder Andrew Vaughn, making good on their pledge not to manipulate his service time even though they’ve been unable to sign him long-term thus far. Not only is the club convinced Vaughn will successfully make the jump from High-A to the big leagues (with alternate site time in-between), but they’re also asking him to learn left field to replace Jimenez.

Even before the Jimenez injury, the White Sox elected not to bring in a full-time designated hitter to replace Edwin Encarnacion. Backup catcher Zack Collins snagged the Opening Day DH assignment, with third catcher Yermin Mercedes riding a hot streak to get the next three starts. Once Mercedes cools off, others will surely filter through the DH spot as well. The White Sox probably aren’t dying to see more of Jimenez in left field once he recovers, so he may join the DH rotation as well. The best solution might be to try to make the pieces fit until July, at which point the club will know more about Jimenez’s timeline and can acquire someone with real outfield experience.

Even with the Jimenez injury, the White Sox have a solid chance of making the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Though a Jerry Reinsdorf team going all-in might not involve $100MM contracts, I expect the Sox to continue to be aggressive in their own way in the coming years. Their contention window is now fully open.

How would you grade Chicago’s offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the White Sox offseason

B 50.27% (1,197 votes)

A 22.22% (529 votes)

C 20.16% (480 votes)

D 3.82% (91 votes)

F 3.53% (84 votes)

Total Votes: 2,381

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Check Out Our MLB Extension Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | April 1, 2021 at 8:56pm CDT

MLBTR has been tracking information on multiyear contract extensions dating back to the early days of the website. Our tracker allows you to filter by service time, position, team, and much more. Click here to check out the MLBTR extension tracker.

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By Tim Dierkes | April 1, 2021 at 9:00am CDT

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MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2021

By Tim Dierkes | March 25, 2021 at 1:15pm CDT

In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season. Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that in 2019, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time. 70% of teams had hope in 2019 by my estimate. Given the strange nature of the 2020 season, I skipped that year. To make this assessment for 2021, I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is subjectivity involved on the borderline teams. I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2021 season with faith and hope: Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Braves, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays, Brewers, Angels, Red Sox, Athletics, Cardinals, Rays, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, Indians, Phillies, Royals, Giants, Marlins

Teams that enter 2021 without faith and hope: Rangers, Pirates, Rockies, Orioles, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Mariners

Conclusion: 76.67% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2021.

Arguable teams:

The Royals have a 8.9% chance at making the playoffs, with a 78 win projection. As a team that very clearly worked to get better in the offseason and could make further additions at the trade deadline, they belong in the contender category.
With a 5.2% chance at the playoffs and a 76 win projection, the Giants are a tough one. With the Dodgers and Padres in their division, their playoff chances rest almost entirely on grabbing one of the NL’s two Wild Card spots. Their offseason involved some decent veteran contracts, including an accepted qualifying offer for Kevin Gausman and almost $42MM in additional commitments. I’d say there’s some faith and hope for their fanbase this year.
The Mariners have a projected 2.7% shot at the playoffs and a 74 win projection. It wasn’t a particularly aggressive offseason, and one of their bigger acquisitions, Ken Giles, won’t pitch this year. They did add James Paxton, Rafael Montero, and various smaller pickups. This isn’t a playoff caliber team and I sense that they’ll truly go for it in 2022, so I am going to nudge them into the non-contender category.
The Diamondbacks have a 1.6% chance at the playoffs and a 72 win projection, and like the Giants they’re hurt by the division they’re in. It’s a fairly veteran club, and Baseball Prospectus has them better than the Giants. But with a significant payroll cut and a quiet offseason, this doesn’t seem like a team with playoff aspirations. Arbitrary as it may be, I’m putting them in the non-contender category.
The Marlins have just a 1.3% chance at the playoffs, per FanGraphs, with a 71 win projection. Baseball Prospectus says 70. This club made the playoffs in 2020 with a season that extrapolated to about 84 wins. They would have just missed the postseason if not for the expanded format. The club’s quiet offseason doesn’t tip the scales much. The Marlins did pick up Starling Marte’s option and didn’t lose anyone too significant. This one could go either way, but based on last year I have to lean toward the contender category even if the projection systems call for major regression.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 18, 2021 at 3:08pm CDT

The Cubs traded their ace while former core players left via free agency, and attempted to add value back with a slew of one-year free agent deals.

Major League Signings

Joc Pederson, LF: one year, $7MM
Jake Arrieta, SP: one year, $6MM
Andrew Chafin, RP: one year, $2.75MM
Trevor Williams, SP: one year, $2.5MM. Could remain under control through 2022 as an arbitration eligible player
Jake Marisnick, CF: one year, $1.5MM
Austin Romine, C: one year, $1.5MM
Brandon Workman, RP: one year, $1MM
Ryan Tepera, RP: one year, $800K
Jonathan Holder, RP: one year, $750K. Could remain under control through 2023 as an arbitration eligible player
Kohl Stewart, P: one year, $700K. Could remain under control through 2025
Total spend: $24.5MM

Options Exercised

Anthony Rizzo, 1B: one year, $16.5MM

Trades and Claims

Claimed IF Max Schrock off waivers from Cardinals; later designated for assignment and claimed by Reds
Claimed RP Robert Stock off waivers from Red Sox; later designated for assignment and outrighted to Triple-A
Selected SP Gray Fenter from Orioles in Rule 5 draft; later returned
Claimed OF Phil Ervin off waivers from Mariners; later designated for assignment and claimed by Braves
Acquired SP Zach Davies, SS Reginald Preciado, OF Owen Caissie, OF Ismael Mena, and SS Yeison Santana from Padres for SP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini, and $3MM
Claimed IF Sergio Alcantara off waivers from Tigers; later designated for assignment and outrighted to Triple-A
Acquired 1B Shendrik Apostel from Pirates for Duane Underwood Jr.

Notable Minor League Signings

Cameron Maybin, Eric Sogard, Shelby Miller, Matt Duffy, Jose Lobaton, Pedro Strop, Adam Morgan, Joe Biagini, Rex Brothers, Robert Stock, Jake Jewell, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Hermosillo, Nick Martini, Ian Miller, Rafael Ortega

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Jeremy Jeffress, Duane Underwood Jr., Tyler Chatwood, Victor Caratini, Jason Kipnis, Albert Almora Jr., Colin Rea, Daniel Descalso, Jose Martinez, Josh Phegley, Billy Hamilton

Theo Epstein gave his customary Cubs post-mortem on October 5th, complete with the suggestion of “warranted and necessary” change that has been a staple of those talks since 2018, particularly as it relates to the club’s offense. That day Epstein spoke of an expectation that he’d remain with the Cubs for the final year of his contract, but 43 days later he announced his resignation.

As one of the reasons for his decision, Epstein noted, “There are a lot of important decisions to be made that will have long-term consequences,” and second-in-command Jed Hoyer is ready for the top job and should make those calls. That makes sense, as the Cubs lined up the contract years of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez to coincide in 2021. Plus, the Cubs were firmly in cost-cutting mode, having recently laid off 100+ employees due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They were, as we’d soon learn, also planning a cut in player payroll. Epstein’s abandonment of his $10MM salary could be viewed as an act of generosity of sorts, except that the Ricketts family was the beneficiary.

The last time Cubs ownership experienced “found” money, they used Ben Zobrist’s unexpected leave of absence money to cover the bulk of Craig Kimbrel’s 2019 salary. Kimbrel’s three-year, $43MM contract represents the only time the Cubs committed more than $7MM to a new player dating back to their February 2018 signing of Yu Darvish. The Ricketts family opened the checkbook in that 2017-18 offseason, and then cut off Epstein and company for the better part of the ensuing three years. It’s no wonder Epstein chose to leave a year early, especially with the likely knowledge that the Ricketts family was planning to mandate a payroll cut best accomplished by trading the team’s ace.

How badly did Cubs’ ownership want to save money? Badly enough to choose a path unprecedented in at least the last 20 years in MLB: trading a top-two Cy Young finisher coming off a winning season. Such trades have rarely been brokered at all – teams like to keep ace pitchers – but on the rare occasion they have happened, it’s been done by a losing club. In late December, the Cubs traded Yu Darvish, backup catcher Victor Caratini, and $3MM cash for one year of veteran pitcher Zach Davies plus three 17 to 18-year-old prospects and another who had just turned 20.

Part of being one of the 30 people in the world tasked with leading an MLB front office is that you have to sometimes say things that aren’t true. According to Hoyer, the $51.67MM in player salary the Cubs saved in the Darvish trade was “not the focus” of the deal. Instead, Hoyer said, “The focus of this deal was to try to move a player in the second half of his contract and try to acquire a lot of young talent. We don’t have many opportunities to do that. Look back at the last six years, when have we had the chance to replenish in any way, and this was an opportunity to do that and we took it and we’re excited about what we got back.”

The “second half of his contract” part is Hoyer’s kinder way of saying that he feels he sold high on Darvish, who is 34. Darvish missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries and has only pitched like an ace for the Cubs for his last 32 starts or so dating back to May 2019. Cashing the Cubs’ ace in for prospects was described by Hoyer as “the prudent thing to do,” but a more accurate phrasing would have been “the financially prudent thing to do.” There would have been financial risk in keeping Darvish’s three-year, $62MM commitment, just as there’s risk the players Hoyer acquired won’t pan out. A team with a good, veteran base of talent in baseball’s worst division would typically hold onto the ace’s contract for at least one more year, taking another shot at a championship even if they don’t get to “jump-start our farm system in a big way.” Plus, Darvish is hardly overpaid in light of Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102MM contract.

All that said, threading the needle and trading Darvish this winter could still have been a good call. The Rays do it all the time and remain competitive, though I’m not sure why the Cubs would try to emulate the Rays. The problem is that if this was the best package of players offered, Hoyer should have held onto Darvish, and I’m not confident the Ricketts family endorsed that option. The four prospects acquired are nowhere close to impacting the Cubs, unless they’re traded again in the near future.

We’re left with Darvish being swapped out for Davies, and there’s no real argument that makes the team better in 2021. On paper, the exchange makes the Cubs 2-3 wins worse this year, in a division the Brewers are projected to take with 82.1 wins. The Cubs are at 79.6, demonstrating the weakness of the division and the parity of the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds. If the Cubs were in the NL West, the Darvish trade would have been more defensible.

Prior to Epstein stepping down, the Cubs made the obvious choice of Jon Lester’s $10MM buyout over his $25MM mutual option. Though interest in a lower-priced reunion was mutual, Lester lingered on the market until January 20th. He turned down a last-minute offer from the Cubs and signed for the Nationals with $5MM. Lester moving on is notable for all he meant to the Cubs 2015-20, but at age 37 he wasn’t the best choice for their rotation.

Hoyer began remaking the Cubs’ rotation with the late December Davies-Darvish swap, adding Davies to incumbents Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills to form a trio that rarely cracks 90 miles per hour. In January, the Cubs attended showcases for Corey Kluber, Carlos Rodon, Mike Foltynewicz, but elected not to sign them. They wound up signing Trevor Williams, who had been non-tendered by the Pirates. Williams projects to pitch roughly as well as Lester does (an ERA near 5.00) at half the price. Williams will turn 29 in April and is under team control for 2022. It’s not an exciting move, but Williams will soak up innings at the back end of the Cubs’ rotation in a year that every team expects to go through more starters than usual.

One of the Cubs’ bigger splashes of the offseason was the signing of Jake Arrieta in mid-February. Like Lester, Arrieta was instrumental in the Cubs’ playoff success from 2015-17. The addition seems like a nostalgia signing more than anything. In 2019, the now-35-year-old Arrieta had surgery for a bone spur in his right elbow. His strikeout rate has steadily deteriorated, though his groundball rate has held strong. Like Williams, it’s hard to see much better than a high-4s ERA here. So far the Cubs have gotten exactly one MLB start out of an Epstein-drafted pitcher, and it was Rob Zastryzny in 2016.

The Cubs’ bullpen was supplemented in a similar patchwork fashion with the signings of Brandon Workman, Andrew Chafin, and Ryan Tepera for a total of $4.55MM. The ’pen will again by led by the embattled Kimbrel, who is owed $16MM this year. Given Kimbrel’s 6.00 ERA, 14.5 BB%, and 11 home runs allowed in 36 innings for the Cubs, he wouldn’t be atop their bullpen depth chart if not for his contract. The Cubs’ 2021 bullpen doesn’t look particularly good, but Kimbrel serves as a reminder that this is not a problem teams can easily solve by throwing money at it.

About a month after declining Lester’s option, the Cubs had to make a tougher decision on another World Series hero in Kyle Schwarber. Drafted fourth overall in 2014, Schwarber was long considered part of the Rizzo-Bryant-Baez core that would be up for free agency after 2021. Schwarber limped to a 91 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances in 2020, setting him up for an arbitration reward somewhere south of $9MM. The Cubs presumably found no takers in a trade, putting a sad cap on Schwarber’s Cubs career by non-tendering him. Schwarber became one of the rare players to sign in free agency for more than he would have gotten in arbitration, and Lester joined him in D.C. in January.

In late January, ESPN 1000’s David Kaplan reported that the Ricketts family had “recently increased the Cubs player payroll for 2021,” presumably because Wrigley Field was approved for 20% capacity to start the season. That same day, the Cubs had a deal with Joc Pederson, the first top 50 free agent they’ve signed since Kimbrel. Pederson decided to eschew multiyear offers for the chance to shed his platoon label, instructing his agent to reach out to the Cubs. As manager David Ross put it (according to Pederson), “I didn’t know we were going to get to talk to free agents of your caliber.”

Pederson owns a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching from 2016-19 – 14th best in baseball. His mark against lefties is just 42, though he’s typically received fewer than 60 plate appearances against southpaws annually in recent years. If Pederson can manage a 90 wRC+ over 129 PA against lefties, as he did in his first full season in 2015, he could be one of the better left-handed hitters in baseball.

The contract years of Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo will be a storyline looming over the Cubs all year. The Cubs have a clear goal this year of resetting under the $210MM base tax threshold instead of becoming a third-time payor, and they’ve left themselves a hefty $39MM in wiggle room under that mark. This year’s current $171MM CBT payroll drops to about $58MM in commitments for 2022. As of last week, Rizzo was “very optimistic” about getting an extension done. Perhaps a three or four-year deal in the $60-75MM range would work for both sides.

While Rizzo had an off year in 2020, Baez was the third-worst qualified hitter in the game. It was only 235 plate appearances, but you can understand the Cubs’ hesitancy in locking him up for five or six years. On the other hand, if the Baez of 2018-19 returns, the Cubs will have lost their chance at a bargain. Baez is not setting a deadline on contract talks, and may be keen on avoiding a free agent market that could boast fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, among others.

Despite trade rumors all winter, Bryant stayed put and is even open to extension discussions. That seems unlikely, however, and Bryant is a prime trade candidate if the Cubs are out of the race in July. The team would have to be particularly bad to be out of contention by mid-July in the NL Central, however, which could present Hoyer with a difficult choice. The Cubs already prioritized financial savings and far-off prospects over their 2021 record in the Yu Darvish trade, so that could easily happen again this summer.

The 2021 Cubs are not all-in to win another championship, nor are they attempting anything like a rebuild. The club seems content with mediocrity, and that’s the most likely outcome.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Cubs' offseason

D 35.53% (2,017 votes)

C 33.86% (1,922 votes)

F 17.00% (965 votes)

B 11.24% (638 votes)

A 2.38% (135 votes)

Total Votes: 5,677

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2021 at 11:05pm CDT

Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st. With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1. Francisco Lindor. The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago. Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer. The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole. These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season. A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five. But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position. As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position. At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch. Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets. Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension. Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.” By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28. Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2. Corey Seager. Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good. Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season. Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year. His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure. It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract. For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change. The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022. Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3. Trevor Bauer. Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers? He’s built the option into his contract. If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031. So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021. He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much. Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4. Trevor Story. Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops. Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give. And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa. Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road. It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors. But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team. Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race. As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor. He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5. Carlos Correa. Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017. There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player. But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter. He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury. He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason. So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was. His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor. Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial. The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension. Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6. Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency. It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal. To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign. He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season. Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year. Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7. Freddie Freeman. Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award. He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that. Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old. Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long. Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8. Kris Bryant. It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019. At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign. His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory. It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup. Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders. He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season. Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9. Michael Conforto. Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20. Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner. It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract. Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year. So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer. As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins. Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10. Clayton Kershaw. Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old. As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished. But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long. Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list. I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard. Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.

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By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2021 at 11:15am CDT

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Out Of Options 2021

By Tim Dierkes | March 2, 2021 at 10:56pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful and much-appreciated sources.

This year, option status for several players remains unresolved at present due to the nature of the 2020 season, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. We’ll keep this list updated as new information comes in.

Angels

Astros