MLBTR Chat: Harper And Machado Edition
As you might expect, today’s live chat with MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes included many questions involving Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Click here to read the transcript. You can catch Tim’s chats every Monday at 2pm central time.
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MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available
Were you one of the 6,845 people who entered in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest back in November? If so, you’ll want to check out our new contest leaderboard. With 21 of the top 50 free agents signed, 11 people are tied with a .286 batting average (six correct predictions). Of those, Kris Freel currently wears the crown with correct picks on Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia, Andrew Miller, and Joe Kelly. MLBTR writer Ty Bradley is one of about 100 people with five correct, leading our website staff.
To find out how you’re doing, simply type your name into the search box. You can also click anyone’s name to see the picks they made, and try the “Staff Only” button to see how the seven participating MLBTR writers are doing.
Agent Bryce Dixon Talks Nelson Cruz
Yesterday at the Winter Meetings here in Las Vegas, I sat down with Nelson Cruz‘s agent Bryce Dixon for an interview.
How are you positioning Nelson Cruz in this market when you talk to GMs?
He’ll be the straw that stirs in the drink in the middle of the lineup for you. He changes the entire lineup. When he’s in the middle there, the pitcher has to pitch completely differently and he’s the finishing piece that you know is going to go out there and give you exactly the production that you see on the back of the baseball card that you see every single year.
And when he gets into the playoffs, he’s already proven that the bigger the moment, the bigger he shines. You start to look back to some of the bombs he hit in the playoffs for Texas and you know he is a big-time player and he is burning to get back into the playoffs. He thought that the Mariners were going to do it this year. Obviously they fell short, and he was disappointed at that. Clearly he thought they had unfinished business, but the Mariners are going in a different direction so he’ll have to do it with another team.
He’s the guy that you plug in every single day in the middle of the lineup and rakes. Apart from that, he’s also a very good influence on the younger players, teaching them not only secrets of hitting, but how to conduct themselves on and off the field. He’s not a guy who is very vocal in the clubhouse. He’s not going to get up and start yelling at guys, but he’s definitely a one-on-one, lead-by-example guy, who’s going to take the younger guys and say, “If you want to be successful for as long as I’ve been successful, here’s how you do it.” That’s kind of how he leads because he’s definitely not a “ra ra” guy, but he’s always working hard, always having fun, and that rubs off on the younger guys for sure.
You mentioned a finishing piece. How important is it for Cruz to play for a contending team in 2019?
It’s important and I think where he’s at in his career, if you’re not a contender, you don’t really have a need for a Nelson Cruz. So the teams that are in on him want to win. He clearly wants to win and would love to get back to the playoffs and the World Series. He’s got unfinished business as far as that’s concerned. So yes, it’s of utmost importance, he wants to go back to the playoffs. Wherever he signs will be a team that has got designs on making the playoffs.
The general assumption is that National League teams can’t be in the mix for Cruz. Would you agree with that?
National League teams could be in the mix. He would love to play the field, but the last few years the Mariners have wanted him to exclusively DH. They had a ton of quality, quality outfielders so he didn’t play the field unless it was an NL park. Down the stretch he told the Mariners, end of August, September, “Start playing me more when we play the NL teams because we need to win these games and I know I can help out.” He did well there. He’ll do whatever the team wants, so if an NL team wants to put him in the field, he has no problem with that. Obviously he’s been DH, so the majority of the teams that are after him are American League teams.
If you’re looking at AL contenders with DH openings it looks like there are 4-5 suitors, and that feels a lot different than shopping around a reliever who might make sense for 20 teams. Have GMs been trying to leverage that against you?
Even though you’re clearly in a smaller universe because of who he is and which teams would have that need, they haven’t because there are enough teams that they don’t want to come in and lowball and try to act like there’s nowhere else for him to go. All 30 teams aren’t in like they would be on a middle reliever type, maybe, but there are numerous teams in so there’s enough to push his market where it needs to go. If there was only one or two, then maybe it would be a different answer. But there’s numerous, so he’s fine where he’s at.
In general when you have a free agent, how is it that you decide that you’ve got that last dollar or that the bidding has stopped?
There’s no perfect answer but you can sense from the team’s side, the tonal change, and it’s a feeling that you get. “OK, we’re at a point that we need to make a decision.” You have to try to read the future as much as possible. And think, if we don’t pull the trigger now, can this market collapse, or are we going to be fine waiting longer? It’s the totality of the circumstances. You’re looking at what happens with other players with other teams. Teams nowadays especially with trades, you’re kind of mixing them all together and coming up with the feeling, “OK, now is go time.”
2019 MLB Arbitration Tracker
Our 2019 MLB arbitration tracker is now available! The tracker displays all arbitration eligible players, with fields for team, service time, player and team submissions, the midpoint, and the settlement amount. You can filter by team, signing status, service time, Super Two status, and whether a hearing occurred. For unsigned players that do not agree to terms in the interim, arbitration figures will be exchanged on January 11, 2019. By our count, 27 arbitration eligible players have signed so far.
You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2019 Arbitration Tracker here, or you can find it in the Tools menu at the top of the site.
MLBTR is also the only place for salary projections for every arbitration eligible player, which you can find here.
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents. Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:
11. Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)
12. Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)
13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)
14. Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)
15. Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)
16. Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)
17. Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)
18. Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)
19. David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)
20. Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,845 people entered the contest. Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.
1. Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)
2. Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)
3. Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)
4. Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)
5. Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)
6. Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)
7. Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)
8. A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)
9. J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)
10. Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)
MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest
UPDATE: The contest is now closed. We’ll continue working on a leaderboard feature so you can track your progress as players sign. Thanks for entering!
Back by popular demand, it’s the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest! Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents. The deadline for entry is tonight at 11pm central time! You can edit your picks until then. Further contest info:
- This is something we’ve done dating back to 2011, but we took the last few years off due to technical challenges. Our readers ask me about it regularly. Then today I saw that our friends at FanGraphs used Google Forms for a simple free agent contest, and I decided to do the same.
- In the past, we have created a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. I will attempt to build something like that this winter. If it succeeds, we’re going to use entrants’ full names on it. So, if that concerns you please do not enter the contest. Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
- We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners. I may also use those email addresses to notify you of next year’s free agent prediction contest.
- If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
- After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms. In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
- We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed. We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place. Winners must respond to an email within one week.
- Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total. For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct. Tim gets Bryce Harper (#1 ranking) and Adam Ottavino (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points. Steve gets Yasmani Grandal (#6) and Charlie Morton (#14) for a total of 20 points. Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post! Otherwise, make your picks now!
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer. Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
Astros
The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel. The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case. Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.
Dodgers
The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Nationals
The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.
Red Sox
The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.
The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s. The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s. The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin. Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Lose By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, and A.J. Pollock were the six free agents this year to receive and turn down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from their teams this month. If those players sign elsewhere, here’s a look at the draft picks the signing team would lose.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Nationals
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2019 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though it’s probably more likely for the Nationals.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays
These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.
All Other Clubs: Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays
These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the White Sox to sacrifice a pick in the 40s.
What happens if a team signs two of these six free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.