Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Timeline Of Twins’ Negotiation With Nelson Cruz

By | at

At the outset of the offseason, Nelson Cruz was said to be seeking a two-year deal, in theory from the Minnesota Twins. Not much has changed on that front, though as time wears on, it seems less and less likely the Twins will meet his demand. Coming off back-to-back silver slugger awards as the Twins’ designated hitter, it would seem a given that Minnesota would do whatever necessary to bring back Cruz, even as he enters his age-40 season. He’s a team leader, a fan favorite, and a standout citizen, evidenced by being the Twins’ Roberto Clemente Award nominee in 2020 and in winning the Marvin Miller Man Of The Year Award for being the player who has earned the “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community,” as explained the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III back in October.

Under a different context, the opportunity to add a 163 wRC+ hitter for two years at $14MM per season would be almost too good to believe. Under the current context, however, the Twins have yet to sign Cruz, nor even has there been much in the way of dialogue, per Neal’s newest piece for the Star Tribune. Neal consulted with multiple sources to provide a timeline of Cruz’s negotiation with the Twins so far this winter.

The Twins made a one-year offer during the opening weeks of free agency, then pulled it off the table after a couple of weeks. A second contract offer was made during the holidays that went nowhere as Cruz’s camp waited for word on the NL. There hasn’t been a lot of back-and-forth negotiating between the sides.

The assumption is there will be no designated hitter in the National League in 2021, which limits the field of potential Cruz suitors, but if the Twins wait long enough, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be more opportunities for Cruz. Interestingly, Neal names the Padres as one NL team that would be interested in Cruz were there to be a DH in the NL. Adding Cruz to any lineup ought to be a boon for that team, though putting him on a Padres roster with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado could very well make the Friars one of the more highly anticipated rosters MLB has seen in some time. Over the past two seasons, Cruz slashed .308/.394/.626 with a monstrous .318 ISO, 11 percent walk rate, 25.7 percent strikeout rate, 163 wRC+, and 6.2 fWAR over 735 plate appearances.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

By | at

In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber's Potential?
No 62.34% (5,781 votes)
Yes 37.66% (3,493 votes)
Total Votes: 9,274
(poll link for app users)

Schwarber's wRC+ in 2021 will be...
Between 100 wRC+ and 109 wRC+ 33.31% (2,307 votes)
Between 110 wRC+ and 119 wRC+ 29.13% (2,017 votes)
Under 100 wRC+ 18.12% (1,255 votes)
Between 120 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ 13.16% (911 votes)
Over 130 wRC+ 6.28% (435 votes)
Total Votes: 6,925
(poll link for app users)

Quick Hits: Nationals, Schwarber, Martinez, Royals, Dozier, Red Sox, Prospects, Blalock, Yorke

By | at

Kyle Schwarber is now a member of the Washington Nationals, in no small part because of Nats manager Dave Martinez, per ESPN. Schwarber, of course, won a World Series with Martinez as his bench coach in Chicago. In fact, Martinez was the Cubs bench coach for the first three years of Schwarber’s career. Said Schwarber, per ESPN, “I love [Martinez] to death. I’m so excited to play for this guy. He only wants to win.” Washington hopes Martinez can help Schwarber recapture some of the magic that made him a star in Chicago. Schwarber will also reunite with Starlin Castro, with whom he played as a rookie on the 2015 Cubs. Elsewhere…

  • Royals Assistant General Managers Scott Sharp and Jin Wong remain active in reaching out to agents about potential free agents, writes MLB.com’s Jason Beck. The Royals have been one of the more proactive teams in the Majors so far this winter, coming to terms with Mike Minor, Greg Holland, Michael A. Taylor, and Carlos Santana to Major League deals, all before the new year. The Royals are still potentially on the lookout for a left-handed bat, notes Beck. With just about $87MM in payroll commitments, the Royals have just a couple million before matching last year’s payroll. It wasn’t long ago, however, that Kansas City ran up payrolls over the century mark, so it’s possible they could extend yet another Major League contract, should the right deal fall their way.
  • Ryan O’Hearn, Franchy Cordero, and Nicky Lopez are the only pure left-handed bats on the roster, and only the latter has a guaranteed spot as a regular player. Adalberto Mondesi and Carlos Santana are switch-hitters who will be in the lineup every day, but both have traditionally fared better hitting from the right side. In terms of their targets, Beck also notes that the Royals are growing comfortable with Hunter Dozier as the regular third baseman. All that in mind, a lefty corner outfielder would fit nicely onto the roster. Should they not find a bat at an appropriate price point, however, the Royals are believers in the long-term ability of Khalil Lee, who is a candidate for playing time in 2021.
  • Red Sox prospect Bradley Blalock was a 32nd round draft choice in 2019, but after adding 10 pounds and roughly six miles per hour to his fastball, the 20-year-old right-hander will enter 2021 as a player to watch, per Alex Speier of Baseball America. Blalock is more-or-less just beginning his professional career, having signed out of high school for $250K in July of 2019. The Georgia native made just four appearances in rookie ball, giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out four over 6 2/3 innings. Elsewhere in the system, the prospect gurus at MLB.com name Nick Yorke as a player who could rise quickly through Boston’s system, writing, “The California prep product has the sweet right-handed swing, bat speed, pitch recognition and discipline to potentially become a .300 hitter with 20 homers per season.” Yorke was the No. 17 overall selection of the 2020 draft.

 

Sung-Bum Na Returning To NC Dinos

By | at

Slugging Korean outfield Sung-Bum Na’s posting period came to an end today. The 31-year-old, who has played his entire eight-year career with the NC Dinos, will return to the KBO after failing to come to an agreement with a Major League team, per a SPOTV report, writes the KBO’s Sung Min Kim (via Twitter).

Na was posted a month ago with the hopes of catching on with a Major League club. As a corner outfielder, Na already faced a steep competitive field that offers a fair swath of alternative options, but a knee injury suffered in 2019 and his age likely complicated his market. Still, he hit .324/.390/.596 for the Dinos in 2020 with 34 home runs, 25.3 percent strikeout rate, and 8.3 percent walk rate. The strikeout and walk rates likely did not work in Na’s favor, but the power is compelling.

The free agent market is an unforgiving one this offseason, however, and it might be that Na was too uncertain an asset for interested teams. The 30-day posting period also likely worked against him given the glacial pace of free agency. Ultimately, agent Scott Boras was unable to find a deal. As we saw recently with Tomoyuki Sugano, Na is not the only overseas star to face a less-welcoming financial landscape than expected. Na will now will return to the Dinos for a ninth season. He will, however, be a free agent again after 2021, notes Kim, at which point he could pursue the possibility of jumping to MLB again.

Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders

By | at

From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.

On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).

But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.

Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?

Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.

The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.

Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.

Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.

To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.

There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.

Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.

Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.

On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.

With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.

Twins Sign JT Riddle To Minor League Deal

By | at

The Twins have signed JT Riddle to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Kim (via Twitter). Riddle spent last season with the Pirates.

Speculatively, Riddle could eventually help insure against the departure of free agent Marwin Gonzalez. Riddle plays all over the diamond, with his market advantage being capable glovework at both shortstop and centerfield. He has appeared at every position besides pitcher and catcher over his four year career, with a majority of his playing time coming up the middle.

Though he appeared in 23 games for the Pirates last season, the bulk of Riddle’s career was with the Marlins from 2017 to 2019. In total, Riddle owns a career triple slash of .222/.261/.355, just a 63 wRC+. Therein lies the rub for Riddle, as he has yet to come anywhere close to producing league-average offense. For his career, a 5.0 percent walk rate, 21.9 percent strikeout rate, and .133 isolated power mark all fall below league averages.

Quick Hits: Sugano’s Deadline, Free Agent Market, Training Facilities

By | at

The posting period for Tomoyuki Sugano ends today at 5pm ET. He’s reportedly seeking more than the four-year, $56MM deal that Yusei Kikuchi signed to join the Mariners, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. That’s a hefty sum, and with a four-year contract in-hand to return to the Yomiuri Giants – a deal that includes three opt-outs – it begins to feel less likely that the Japanese legend will find the deal he desires. Still, he’s an absolute star in Japan and could be the best free agent starter not named Trevor Bauer. The Red Sox are still interested, as are the Blue Jays. The Mets are out. [UPDATE: “A return to Japan still appears most likely outcome” for Sugano, according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic]

While we wait for Sugano’s decision, let’s check in on some other league news…

  • It was an omen of the winter to come when the Cleveland Indians waived their closer Brad Hand. When he went unclaimed, panic reached new heights. If Hand at $10MM went unclaimed by all 30 teams, free agent spending figured to be at an all-time low. Interest appears to be picking up on Hand, but on the whole, the market remains cold. Perhaps to an unprecedented degree, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Agents fear GMs are being intentionally obtuse about their payrolls in order to delay signings and inspire an ecosystem of desperation among players. The lack of face-to-face meetings might also be making the frigid environment easier to teams to maintain, suggests Nightengale. Elsewhere…
  • Upon hearing that some teams were planning on opening up their facilities to allow players to come train, MLB sent a memo to all thirty clubs setting clear guidelines for the opening of training facilities, per Nightengale. The only players who will be allowed in their team facilities prior to spring training, Nightengale writes, are those who live near the facilities, those with specific health needs, and those approved in the CBA to attend club mini-camps. Violations will be subject to severe punishment. Of course, what that means is all relative. MLB is trying to get ahead of any potential outbreaks in January or February that would complicate initial protocols.

Open Market Notes: Kluber, Twins/Cruz, Nats, Odorizzi

By and | at

Add the Pirates to the clubs planning to attend for Corey Kluber’s January 13th workout, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Nationals and Diamondbacks were previously mentioned as two among many planning to view Kluber in Florida. The Pirates don’t seem like the likeliest team to sign Kluber, though he could conceivably provide some veteran stability with the upside of becoming a mid-season trade chip. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber shows after two mostly lost seasons. Before he ran into health troubles, the 34-year-old reeled off an exceptional five-season run.

Here are a few other items of open-market chatter …

  • Though there’s no evidence of recent progress, there’s still cause to remain bullish on the odds of a reunion between the Twins and slugger Nelson Cruz. The match, after all, has worked out well for both sides to date. In an appearance on the Locked On Twins podcast, Darren Wolfson of KSTP 5 indicated that mutual interest remains strong. But the club and the 40-year-old DH could also be eyeing alternatives. Wolfson suggests the Padres would have interest in Cruz if it turns out that the DH will remain in the National League. Remaining uncertainty in that regard has iced the market for lumbering sluggers. Depending upon how things shake out, per Wolfson, the Twins may have interest in a slate of options that includes Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and even Marcell Ozuna.
  • Several of those players would also be of interest to the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It seems that Ozuna is likely to require too much space on the balance sheet. But Brantley and Schwarber, along with Joc Pederson, are each seen as possibilities to take up a post in the D.C. corner outfield. The Nats have an opening after allowing Adam Eaton to depart.
  • Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.

Yankees To Acquire Greg Allen From Padres

By | at

The Yankees are set to acquire outfielder Greg Allen from the Padres. Allen was recently designated for assignment by San Diego. The Padres will receive left-handed reliever James Reeves in return, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Allen, a San Diego native, was traded to the Padres last August as part of the Mike Clevinger deal. The speedy outfielder appeared in just one game for the Padres, drawing a pair of walks, stealing a base, and scoring a run. For his career, Allen holds a .239/.298/.343 line in 618 plate appearances across four years with the Indians and Padres.

Reeves is a 27-year-old southpaw drafted by the Yankees in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. He has a 2.30 ERA across five minor league seasons, functioning almost exclusively as a reliever. He logged a 1.79 ERA across 55 1/3 innings for Double-A Trenton in 2019 with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate, and 43 percent groundball rate.

Reds Acquire Art Warren For Cash Considerations

By | at

The Reds have acquired right-hander Art Warren from the Rangers for cash considerations, both teams announced (Twitter links). Warren had been designated for assignment on December 26th, at which point it seemed fairly certain that Warren would latch on somewhere. The Reds make for a natural fit having moved out a couple of bullpen arms this winter, and it doesn’t hurt that Warren is an Ohio native. The 27-year-old will have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the Cincinnati bullpen.

The Rangers had claimed Warren off waivers from the Mariners, but subsequently designated him for assignment to make room on their 40-man roster for Kohei Arihara. The Rangers had claimed Warren only as recently as October 21, 2020.

Warren spent one day on the Mariners’ active roster in 2020 but did not make an appearance. He made six big league appearances for Seattle in 2019 after recording a 32 percent strikeout rate in back-to-back seasons in Double-A. Warren posted a 60.3 percent groundball rate across 31 2/3 innings in 2019. Conversely, his groundball rate at the same level in 15 2/3 innings the year before was just 39.4 percent. There’s a fair amount of year-to-year variance in Warren’s minor league track record, but there’s certainly enough to make him an interesting bullpen candidate for manager David Bell.

Perhaps more importantly for the Reds, he’ll earn the league minimum. The Reds non-tendered Archie Bradley and traded Raisel Iglesias earlier this winter, removing two proven high-leverage arms from their bullpen stable, presumably for financial reasons. Adding Warren is a low-key move that doesn’t immediately move the needle for the Reds, but there is potential for Warren to make an impact in 2021

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top