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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM

Option Decisions

  • Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
  • Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
  • Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
  • Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera

Free Agents

The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.)  In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team. 

If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.

It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”

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MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Colton Cowser Undergoes Surgery On Fractured Hand

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The Orioles announced today that outfielder Colton Cowser underwent successful surgery to repair his fractured left hand. Cowser, who the O’s announced is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2025, was diagnosed with the fracture shortly after the Orioles were eliminated from the playoffs at the hands of the Royals. In the final game of Baltimore’s season, Cowser swung at an up-and-in pitch from Kansas City southpaw Angel Zerpa and was called out on strikes despite being struck in the left hand by the pitch.

The news is somewhat surprising, as there were no immediate indications that Cowser’s fracture would require surgery in the aftermath of the injury. All the same, the Orioles are surely relieved that the 24-year-old figures to avoid missing the early part of next year due to the issue after a banner year in 2024. The rookie’s first full season in the majors was very impressive, as he slashed a solid .242/.321/.447 with a wRC+ of 120, 24 homers, and nine steals.

That strong offensive performance combined with solid glove work in the outfielder, where he split time between all three outfield spots. That proved to be enough to not only cement Cowser’s role as the Orioles’ everyday left fielder but also allowed him to lead AL rookies in fWAR with a 4.0 figure that was only eclipsed by Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Pirates righty Paul Skenes among MLB rookies this year. In terms of left fielder’s Cowser’s performance tied with Tigers outfielder Riley Greene for the fifth-most fWAR in the majors, trailing only Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Jurickson Profar and Steven Kwan.

Looking ahead to 2025, Cowser’s excellent performance in the outfield this year figures to make him a key cog in the Baltimore lineup next season, particularly given the impending free agency of right fielder Anthony Santander next month. With Santander seemingly unlikely to return next year, the Orioles figure to rely more heavily on the production of Cowser and fellow youngster Heston Kjerstad in the outfield alongside Cedric Mullins next year, though infield prospect Coby Mayo’s name has also been floated as a potential outfield option for the club next year. Of course, even an outfield mix that features strong seasons from both Kjerstad and Mayo would surely miss the production offered by Santander, who slugged a career-best 44 homers in 2024.

Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the Orioles explored adding a veteran bat to their outfield mix in order to help safeguard against injury or potential struggles from the club’s young outfielders. While the Orioles figure to primarily focus on bolstering a pitching staff that figures to lose Corbin Burnes to free agency and be without key pieces such as Kyle Bradish in the early part of next year, there should be a number of affordable veteran bats available such as Michael Conforto or Mark Canha who could be added without a significant financial burden if the club wants to add depth to its outfield mix.

Orioles Notes: Angelos, McCann, Asche

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John Angelos was the chairman of the Orioles from 2020, when he formally took over from his father, Peter, until earlier this year, when his family sold the club to new owner David Rubenstein. Initially, Angelos was expected to remain with the club in a senior adviser role, but it seems as if that arrangement didn’t last long. According to Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, Angelos is no longer connected to the team in any capacity after selling his remaining shares to Rubenstein’s ownership group this past August.

Angelos was hardly popular within the Orioles fanbase. The team’s payroll shrunk dramatically under his leadership, and he often complained about the lack of financial resources available to smaller-market organizations. In 2023, he told The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner that the only way to keep all the team’s young stars would be to raise ticket prices “dramatically.” Yet, he reneged on his promise to show reporters the complete “financials of the Orioles” (per the Associated Press). With Rubenstein’s takeover came the hope that the O’s would start spending significantly more on player payroll, and the news that Angelos is no longer exerting any influence over the team’s decisions can only increase that optimism. Baltimore’s payroll was significantly higher in 2024, though still well below league average. Earlier this month, general manager Mike Elias said he was “pretty confident” the payroll will continue to increase in 2025.

One task the Orioles will face this offseason (though hardly their most expensive decision) will be re-signing or replacing backup catcher James McCann. On that subject, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports recently pointed out that McCann initially had the O’s on his five-team no-trade list back when he signed a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason. Needless to say, he ended up approving a trade to the Orioles anyway. What’s more, including the Orioles on his five-team no-trade list doesn’t necessarily mean McCann was opposed to playing in Baltimore. At the time he signed that deal, the Orioles were one of the basement-dwellers of the American League. That’s no longer the case. And it bears repeating that he ultimately accepted the trade that sent him to the Orioles – after they proved they were opening their window of contention with an 83-win season in 2022. Still, it’s a tidbit of information worth keeping in mind as the veteran backstop approaches free agency. McCann is well-liked by his Orioles teammates and has gotten plenty of playing time over the past two years as a backup for Adley Rutschman.

In one more note of interest, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com discussed the Orioles coaching staff today, specifically the hitting coach vacancy left behind after co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller was let go and fellow co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte returned to the Twins. Dubroff pointed out that Cody Asche, technically the team’s offensive strategy coach, also functioned as a third hitting coach for the club. It’s unclear if Asche will change roles next season, but Dubroff does mention that Asche is “respected in the clubhouse.” He has been with the organization since 2022, first as a minor league hitting coordinator before joining the big league staff for the 2023 campaign. Previously, he was a minor league hitting coach in the Phillies organization. At 34 years old, he is still young for a big league coach, but he is certainly a name to keep in mind as the Orioles look to find their next hitting guru.

Orioles Sign David Banuelos To Minor League Contract

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The Orioles signed catcher David Banuelos to a new minor league contract, MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (X link).  The deal contains an invitation to Baltimore’s big league Spring Training camp.

Banuelos had been eligible for minor league free agent but the contract ensures that he’ll remain in the Orioles organization for a second year.  After signing a minors deal with the O’s last winter, Banuelos made his Major League debut in the form of a pinch-hit appearance in Baltimore’s 11-3 win over the Twins on April 16.  That lone game marked Banuelos’ only MLB appearance of the season, and he also played in only 22 games for Triple-A Norfolk.

The lack of proper playing time was due to Banuelos’ status as a regular member of the Orioles’ taxi squad, as the O’s wanted an emergency catcher available to back up Adley Rutschman and James McCann.  With Rutschmann playing almost every day as either a catcher or DH, the Orioles wanted extra depth if an injury hit either of their two regular backstops.  This left Banuelos without much playing time since Rutschman and McCann both avoided the injured list — somewhat remarkably in McCann’s case, given how he was hit in the face with a pitch back on July 29.

Banuelos also spent part of the season in roster limbo, as the Orioles designated the catcher for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man roster on three separate occasions.  After being outrighted the first time, Banuelos gained the right to reject any future outright assignments in favor of free agency, though Banuelos opted to remain with Baltimore after he cleared waivers the next two times.

Even with just a cup of coffee in the Show, Banuelos can now officially call himself a big leaguer after seven pro seasons.  A fifth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2017 draft, Banuelos spent just his first season in Seattle’s organization before he was dealt to the Twins, and he played in Minnesota’s farm system from 2018-23.  Banuelos has hit .216/.283/.354 over 1265 career plate appearances in the minors.

Twins To Name Matt Borgschulte Hitting Coach

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The Twins are hiring Orioles co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte as their new hitting coach, replacing the recently dismissed David Popkins, as first reported by Brandon Warne. It’s a return to his first professional organization, as Borgschulte was a hitting coach in the Twins’ minor league ranks from 2018-21 before being hired to Baltimore’s big league staff for the 2022 season. Prior to his days as a coach in the Twins system, Borgschulte had been coaching at Southeast Missouri State University.

Borgschulte’s departure is the latest in a shakeup of the Orioles’ coaching staff on the heels of a second-half decline for the club, during which many of the team’s hitters struggled to produce at prior levels. His co-hitting coach, Ryan Fuller, was one of three coaches from whom the club moved on last week. Baltimore still has former big leaguer Cody Asche on manager Brandon Hyde’s staff as the “offensive strategy coordinator,” but it seems there’ll be a change of note in the organization’s messaging to a young core of hitters.

The Twins are plenty familiar with Borgschulte, of course, and will now install him on the club’s big league staff after declining to do so heading into the 2022 campaign. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that Borgschulte was a finalist for what was then a vacant hitting coach position that ultimately went to Popkins.

Minnesota is undergoing a similar overhaul to its organizational hitting strategy. Popkins was one of four coaches the Twins cut loose. They also moved on from assistant hitting coaches Rudy Hernandez and Derek Shomon. Hernandez had been at his post as assistant hitting coach for nine years.

Though the second half of the season didn’t go well in Baltimore, Borgschulte clearly had a role in working with the Orioles’ impressive core of young hitters in recent years. It’s impossible to pin an entire organization’s successes or failures on one singular coach, but the O’s have churned out quality hitters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser in recent seasons while seeing veterans like Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn take their offensive games to new levels. Minnesota will hope for similar strides among its own impressive core of young hitters, including Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee (among others).

Orioles Part Ways With Three Coaches

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The Orioles are parting ways with three coaches, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com on X. Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, bench coach Fredi González and major league coach José Hernández will not return to the club in 2025.

Fuller, 34, was an internal promotion. He was hired by the O’s in 2019, working as a minor league hitting coordinator. Going into the 2022 season, Fuller and Matt Borgschulte were announced as co-hitting coaches, with Borgschulte coming over from the Twins.

The results have been pretty good under those two, though this year ended on a bit of a sour note. The Orioles hit .255/.321/.421 for a 105 wRC+ last year, 12th-best in the league. They were actually better in 2024, slashing .250/.315/.435 for a 115 wRC+ which trailed only the Dodgers and Yankees.

But that season-long performance came despite a mediocre finish. The O’s hit .238/.307 /.395 over August in September for a wRC+ of 102. They were then swept out of the playoffs by the Royals, losing two straight games in the Wild Card series while scoring just one total run between the two contests.

Separating the contributions of a coach from the performances of the players is always tough, but it seems the Orioles have decided to make a change. They haven’t made any official announcement, so perhaps Borgschulte will take on the hitting coach job by himself, though it’s also possible further reporting will emerge in the coming days to provide a clearer picture.

González has been with the O’s for the past five seasons, getting hired prior to the 2020 campaign. He was given the nebulous title of major league coach but was given the bench coach title two years after that. Prior to joining the O’s, González had worked for the Marlins and Atlanta, working coaching jobs and as manager for both clubs. Hernández played in the majors from 1991 to 2006, suiting up for nine different clubs. He joined the O’s as a minor league coach in 2010 and worked his way up to the majors for the 2019 season.

What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

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The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tucker Davidson Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced this morning that left-hander Tucker Davidson, whom they designated for assignment on the final day of the regular season, elected free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk.

A former top prospect with the Braves, Davidson bounced to the Angels and Royals before landing with the O’s for the 2024 season. He posted 4 2/3 scoreless frames in the majors this year, albeit with two walks against just one strikeout. The bulk of his season was spent in Norfolk, where he logged 115 2/3 innings with a 3.89 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, a 9.1% walk rate and a 45.7% ground-ball rate.

The 28-year-old Davidson split his time in Norfolk between the rotation and the bullpen, faring far better in the former. While his numbers as a starter were passable — 4.48 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate — he was much more successful coming out of the ’pen. In 44 relief innings, he notched a 2.45 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. As a starter, opponents batted .266/.336/.431 against Davidson this season. They flailed away at a .195/.263/.335 pace when he was pitching in relief.

Davidson will turn 29 in March. To this point in his big league career, he’s posted a 5.76 ERA in 129 2/3 innings. Certainly, that’s not an exciting profile, but there’s reason for cautious optimism moving forward. His work in relief this year was strong, and the brief MLB look he had with the Orioles featured a vary different pitch mix than he’s had in seasons past. Davidson has traditionally focused on a four-seam/slider combination, mixing in an occasional curveball as a change of pace. The Orioles had him scale back the usage of both his four-seamer and slider while adding a sinker and splitter that he used about 12% of the time each.

In all likelihood, Davidson will still be looking for a minor league deal this winter, but a former top prospect on the right side of 30 with solid Triple-A numbers and a tweaked pitch mix creates more intrigue than many other minor league free agents. He’ll be an option for clubs seeking rotation and bullpen depth alike.

Nine Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

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